Horse racing DOOMED says Saratoga panel

[46zilzal]

A real eye-opener this was the first International Simulcast Conference in Saratoga last summer. Read more at this Standard bred Canada link
http://www.standardbredcanada.ca/news/10-13-09/panel-change-horse-racing-doomed.html


Jeff Gural, the owner of Vernon Downs and Tioga Downs, gave an audience of simulcasters a sobering wake up call today when he stated, “It’s so logical that the sport is going to die.”

Gural, speaking on a panel titled, Change —You Can Run But You Can’t Hide at the International Simulcast Conference in Saratoga Springs, NY, said that racetrack lobbyists who recently fought together with horsemen for slots at racetracks will soon lobby governments to eliminate racing from racetracks.

“Once a racino opens, that casino company looks at racing as a loser,” said Gural. “You’ll see the lobbyists of those track owners in the legislature trying to convince government to take the money back, allowing the racinos to get rid of racing.”

“Participants in the horse industry don’t get it but they’ll learn soon,” said Gural. “The horse industry doesn’t want to do anything to help themselves. The horse industry is very happy to be a welfare recipient. They believe somehow that they are entitled.”

Gural, who says that he himself as a horse owner will continue to fight for horse racing, pointed to racing’s failure to give fans and bettors what they want.

“It’s very unlikely that horse racing will voluntarily undergo any change,” he said. The industry is dominated by the breeders for some reason – I don’t get it. Unless the breeding business collapses any further, there won’t be any change.”

Comment by attendee at conference: "I couldn't agree more with the comments. The industry is being subsidized by the Slots industry and at some point in time they are going to pull the plug or at least ask for concessions."

[ukbro00]

This is what I have to say to industry doubters:

This is a sport that I love and a sport that many love. If you work in this industry and you think that it doesn't have a chance to succeed, get out. Your negativity is the thing that contributes to the downfall. We need people who want to see racing succeed. We need people who are willing to make changes in the sport, so it can prosper again. We do not need people who sit on their asses all day and do nothing, because they just tell themselves that nothing can be done about it.

[Horseplayersbet.com]

This is what I have to say to industry doubters:

This is a sport that I love and a sport that many love. If you work in this industry and you think that it doesn't have a chance to succeed, get out. Your negativity is the thing that contributes to the downfall. We need people who want to see racing succeed. We need people who are willing to make changes in the sport, so it can prosper again. We do not need people who sit on their asses all day and do nothing, because they just tell themselves that nothing can be done about it.
If you read all of Gural's comments, he shows he is at least willing to change things. He is just trying to figure out how to. That is more than I can say about most racing execs out there who fear change.....but they love the sport.

[46zilzal]

This is what I have to say to industry doubters:

This is a sport that I love and a sport that many love. If you work in this industry and you think that it doesn't have a chance to succeed, get out. Your negativity is the thing that contributes to the downfall. We need people who want to see racing succeed. We need people who are willing to make changes in the sport, so it can prosper again. We do not need people who sit on their asses all day and do nothing, because they just tell themselves that nothing can be done about it.
When INDUSTRY people, the ones who I work with day in and day out, recognize that racing is ONLY is distress in ONE part of the entire GLOBE, then I listen to them.

The model has to change. The bettor has to be revered not shit on any longer.

http://peicanada.com/horse_talk_hal_hennessey/columns_opinions/sport_going_die_casinos_not_among_mourners

[46zilzal]

Just pick up a copy of Headless Horsemen and you will find the same sentiment as this attendee to this conference lamented:
“Racing as an industry is more resistant to change than anything we’ve ever dealt with,” said Christiansen, chief advisor for a 30-year-old New York City-based firm that has acted as consultant to a myriad of gambling companies worldwide."
Christiansen acknowledged archaic pari-mutuel laws are an impediment to change. He cited, however, progress in the form of Betfair, the exchange betting company based in Great Britain, and the Hong Kong Jockey Club, which embraced sports betting.

Christiansen said Betfair proved a new audience can be created for racing through proposition bets with lower takeout rates. The HKJC, which wields clout not typical of racing associations in the United States, was approved to offer wagering on soccer games to recapture an audience it may have lost.

“That is the mindset there will have to be in this industry in order to save it,” Christiansen said. “With all due respect, I haven’t seen that willingness.”

Not surprisingly, horse racing’s increasing reliance on revenue from gaming machines figured into the conversation. Christiansen said slots have boosted purses and kept racetracks from closing but have done nothing to create new fans; Gural agreed but said the racing industry may be squandering the chance to use that revenue wisely.

http://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-racing/articles/52981/are-the-voices-of-horseplayers-being-heard
Another source that mirrors this view http://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-racing/articles/52961/status-quo-welfare-mentality-big-threats

Breeders want to retire horses the customer wants to see.

[46zilzal]

ANY person who loves this sport really needs to get with the program and YELL for change or this sport will be long gone.
http://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-racing/articles/52949/perception-not-integrity-called-major-issue

[46zilzal]

7th race Friday at Woodbine, an allowance race at 8.5 furlongs with a purse of OVER $100,000.

That is ridiculous

[DJofSD]

For myself, I thought this sums up the entire state of affairs:
“Participants in the horse industry don’t get it but they’ll learn soon,” said Gural. “The horse industry doesn’t want to do anything to help themselves. The horse industry is very happy to be a welfare recipient. They believe somehow that they are entitled.”

[DJofSD]

ANY person who loves this sport really needs to get with the program and YELL for change or this sport will be long gone.
http://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-racing/articles/52949/perception-not-integrity-called-major-issue
When you have idiots like this suggesting going to decimal odds, you have an outstanding example of what is wrong on any number of levels:
There is growing sentiment in the industry to stop displaying “fractional” odds, such as 5-2 and 9-2, and show decimal odds. That way, changes in odds would be more transparent and at times not as large as those indicated by changes in fractional odds.

“This has got to stop,” Linnell said. “Going to decimal odds will eliminate approximate odds.”

[46zilzal]

When you have idiots like this suggesting going to decimal odds, you have an outstanding example of what is wrong on any number of levels:
I have seen this over and over in medicine: when the patient misses the boat COMPLETELY on understanding their problem, that latch upon some TOTALLY insignificant aspect and DWELL on it. Human nature is to dismiss a threatening assault and go out and look at minutia. Forest for the trees was a very long ranging analogy that stays in our vernacular for a reason.

[lamboguy]

This is what I have to say to industry doubters:

This is a sport that I love and a sport that many love. If you work in this industry and you think that it doesn't have a chance to succeed, get out. Your negativity is the thing that contributes to the downfall. We need people who want to see racing succeed. We need people who are willing to make changes in the sport, so it can prosper again. We do not need people who sit on their asses all day and do nothing, because they just tell themselves that nothing can be done about it.
if that were only possible! all these guys want to do is take down that slot money and complain.


i got solutions, those guys got ear plugs on

[Hanover1]

This is what I have to say to industry doubters:

This is a sport that I love and a sport that many love. If you work in this industry and you think that it doesn't have a chance to succeed, get out. Your negativity is the thing that contributes to the downfall. We need people who want to see racing succeed. We need people who are willing to make changes in the sport, so it can prosper again. We do not need people who sit on their asses all day and do nothing, because they just tell themselves that nothing can be done about it.
While all on here agree with your sentiments, do you think we can do better by ignoring the thoughts and comments by an owner such as Gural? Even he has not the power to change things, and heartfelt sentiment is wasted in the face of realities. In short, the powers behind the evolution of the sport, dont care about how we feel, its economics based thinking. Horsemen by themselves dont generate the revenues they are targeting. We are just part of a package deal that appears to be on the verge of downsizing, as the money machine evolves. Breeders and buyers will fall in line last when they see the end product is not attractive or lucrative anymore. At this time they can ride the bickering out, as the flesh continues to sell, and bragging rights remain important to the buyers. Neither of these 2 entities will continue to take losses on investments over an extended period of time...and Gural points this all out..Its a matter of time.

[Greyfox]

Moan, groan.

1. Racing insists on having its Triple Crown Jewels in a 5 week time frame.

2. Therefore 47 weeks of the year, except for the Breeders Cup it is in the back pages of the Sports sections, if at all. What is there to advertise? What is there to market?

3. My guess is that most horse players are an average age of 45 or older.

4. All activities from Chess to Tiddly Winks to Horse Racing need newbies every year. I know a lot of horse players who have died. I don't see younger ones coming through to replace them. Somehow horse racing has to attract at least 10 % newbies per year or in a few years who'll be around to play the game?

5. How do young people get attracted to the game if they are not exposed to it? The average person entering to play the game usually isn't so worried about "take out" until they've become more proficient at playing it.
Takeout might be responsible for turning off players who've played the game for awhile, but takeout has nothing to do with getting them in the door.

6. Racing will survive. It just won't survive as we know it if the current trends continue. There is a desperate need for more exposure of the game and to get young people truly excited about it.

[levinmpa]

The sport needs to attack these problems from 2 perspectives.

1. How do we get new fans to come to the track?

This is the question that has not been successfully answered. I believe that nearly every one of us on this board, that is a life long fan, became so because we were exposed to the live sport. A friend or family member took us to the track and explained the game to us. I don't believe life long fans are created at a simulcast facility and certainly not by viewing TVG. Unfortunately, simulcasting and internet wagering keeps the crowds and excitement away. I remember going to the Sonoma County Fair as a kid and there would be 10,000 people at the track on a Saturday. You felt you were part of something big, like going to a Major League ballpark. With the exception of a few days a year, those kinds of crowds are gone. The tracks will continue to struggle with this problem, and may never solve it. Without the big crowds and the excitement the crowd brings as the field turns for home, it's very difficult to create new fans. 3000 fans at a huge facility like Belmont or Santa Anita is kind of depressing.

2. How do we compete for the gambling dollar?

Along with creating new fans the sport needs to maintain the core gamblers that play the game on a daily basis. It also needs to attract players from other forms of gambling. Taking upwards of 25% out of the pools is not a way to attract gamblers. We all know that sports bettors normally lay 11/10 or $1.10 to win $1. If we use the typical racetrack takeout on a football game, the gambler would have to lay about 7/5 or wager $1.40 to win 1. That is not an attractive proposition to gamblers. This needs to be addressed. There are plenty of gamblers out there, but the mathematics of the takeout in our sports keeps them away. Not to mention the fact that the tracks are still gouging players with parking and admission fees.

I wish I had the answers to these 2 questions. With their recent track record in these areas, I'm not confident the tracks have any answer. Relying on Slots is a short term bandaid that does not address either of these two fundamental issues. Perhaps some of the influx of slot money should have gone back to the players in the form of either lower takeouts, or guaranteed pools. How about seeding a Pick 6 pool once a month with $100,000. The only group that gets nothing from slots revenue is the player. Horseman, owners and track ownership all benefit, but players dont' get a nickel of relief. This is short sided on the tracks' part.

I think the top level tracks will survive. Saratoga, Oaklawn, Keeneland and Churchill Downs are going to be here. I don't know about the rest. Perhaps shorter meets will be the answer. At this point, if California does not cut some major portions out of their racing calendar, they will not have the stock to run a major meet. The time has come to shorten the meets and make going to the track special again. 5 days a week, 50 weeks a year is not special.

[Bochall]

It's the question I have posed ever since Racinos were born: Horses need the slots to survive. What are we gonna do when the slots realize they don't need the horses? The horse tail cannot wag the slots dog. Racing will become an expense to the casinos that they can write off/cut out....IMO the way to promo racing is to tell people what kinda money they can make. Selling the pageantry and pretty animals DOES NOT WORK!

[Horseplayersbet.com]

Greyfox, takeout never matters to slot players, but slot operators keep it down to 10% because if it was higher they would lose players. Not because players discovered the takeout was higher, they are lost because they all of a sudden don't seem to last as long to make it worth their while and they become disillusioned in the fact that they really feel they have no chance. They spend less time going to slots and they are less likely to bring out friends or family ....no thinking required.

[Steve 'StatMan']

The average casino and horse playing fan also have no concept of personal handle. A person who plays 3 x $1 lines on a slot machine each time can have at maybe 3 plays per minute? They handle $9 per minute, and in 25 minutes, that've risked $225 in personal handle. But the average person would totally and understandably balk at betting $225 on one horse race every 25 minutes. I do think the minimum bet size influences what people put wager at both the casino and the track, and that many of those 3 x $1 line players would play $0.25 instead if the machines had lower minimums - which would reduce their personal handle - but again, those people aren't thinking about that - they just feed the machines, suspend thinking, and just hope.

Of course, with that frequent betting activity, and the cheapness of the means (slot machines don't eat, poop, have vet bills and don't expect a share of purse money) the takeout can be much lower than horseracing yet generate far more in revenue.

[Horseplayersbet.com]

Of course, with that frequent betting activity, and the cheapness of the means (slot machines don't eat, poop, have vet bills and don't expect a share of purse money) the takeout can be much lower than horseracing yet generate far more in revenue.
The bottom line for slots is much higher in Ontario than horse racing by a country mile. So it doesn't really matter much how expensive it is to put on the show when it comes down to it.
Slots at Fort Erie grosses around $40 million a year. That means around $400 million is bet. There might be a total of $40-50 million a year bet on horses a year by those who bet at the track and Fort Erie's teletheatres and through HPI by Niagara region residents in total a year, which means $10 million is grossed by the track and HPI.

If takeout were halved, my guess is that number would be closer to $100-125 million, and their bottom line would increase as well.

[Greyfox]

The average casino and horse playing fan also have no concept of personal handle. A person who plays 3 x $1 lines on a slot machine each time can have at maybe 3 plays per minute? They handle $9 per minute, and in 25 minutes, that've risked $225 in personal handle. But the average person would totally and understandably balk at betting $225 on one horse race every 25 minutes.

Exactly. Today's younger gamblers want everything "now."
Just waiting 25 minutes between adrenalin "fixes" doesn't do it.
Thoroughbred racing in general needs to drop the time gap between races.
Take in a day at the Triple Crown, and it takes all "day."

[Horseplayersbet.com]

Exactly. Today's younger gamblers want everything "now."
Just waiting 25 minutes between adrenalin "fixes" doesn't do it.
Thoroughbred racing in general needs to drop the time gap between races.
Take in a day at the Triple Crown, and it takes all "day."
At Betfair, and when it comes to betting through ADWs there isn't much time between races :)
The gap between races only affects newbies at the track. Even at the track you can bet up to 20 races every half hour during certain hours.

[WinterTriangle]

Human beings have been racing 4-legged creatures since the beginning of time.

Racing, as you know it, may change drastically, but to say it's doomed is hyperbolic, sort of like people keep saying the world is going to end in 2012.

[fmolf]

Human beings have been racing 4-legged creatures since the beginning of time.

Racing, as you know it, may change drastically, but to say it's doomed is hyperbolic, sort of like people keep saying the world is going to end in 2012.
I agree totally what racing is experiencing now is a long painfully slow market correction.Their is too much product,not enough quality and nobody wants to give up their little slice of the pie.Bringing slots in is the proverbial "fox in the henhouse" and i believe it will lead to racings contraction.Their will in the next ten years be a succession of tracks closing and only the stronger managed tracks will survive.Churchill installing lights,a step in the right direction,as an example.

[Greyfox]

At Betfair, and when it comes to betting through ADWs there isn't much time between races :)
The gap between races only affects newbies at the track. Even at the track you can bet up to 20 races every half hour during certain hours.

Yes. Including harness stuff you can do that . You said:
"The gap between races only affects newbies at the track."
Absolutely we agree on that.

The fact is tracks need one newbie in 10 to stay at the track and continue playing just to maintain the game.
The fact is that isn't happening.
Old "Greys" are dominant at any venue in North America.
Fact...and just that simple.....
When we're gone...so is....

[Greyfox]

Greyfox, takeout never matters to slot players, but slot operators keep it down to 10% because if it was higher they would lose players. Not because players discovered the takeout was higher, they are lost because they all of a sudden don't seem to last as long to make it worth their while and they become disillusioned in the fact that they really feel they have no chance. .

Takeout doesn't matter.:ThmbUp:
Every play they make has a chance. :ThmbUp:
Keep playing slots and they will lose, in the long run, guaranteed. :ThmbDown: :ThmbDown: :ThmbDown:
It is just that simple.
I don't win every race either.
I don't win every bet either.
In the long run, I have a chance of winning...and do.

[WinterTriangle]

Old "Greys" are dominant at any venue in North America.
Fact...and just that simple.....
When we're gone...so is....

And the "old grey" thinking as well. ;)

Every generation thinks this, that everything is going to go to H in a handbasket "without them and their ways."

I just had this conversation with my bro about my nephew, his 14 year old son. His world is very different than the one I grew up in when born in the 50's. :)

We "had" our 60's, 70's and 80's, along with the music, the clothing, the fads, the hair, hobbies, etc. The new up and coming generation will define THEIR world in THEIR way. Some of it will leave us old greys behind...heck, they already have in many ways.

I'm not in the least bit "threatened" by it. I promised myself when I got old I wouldn't be an old fogey, and, I'm not. ;) My grandfather was from Russia and thought Kruzchev would end the world as we know it.

There will always be people interested in horse racing, there always has been.

[Zman179]

Yes. Including harness stuff you can do that . You said:
"The gap between races only affects newbies at the track."
Absolutely we agree on that.

The fact is tracks need one newbie in 10 to stay at the track and continue playing just to maintain the game.
The fact is that isn't happening.
Old "Greys" are dominant at any venue in North America.
Fact...and just that simple.....
When we're gone...so is....

Horse players play slots. Slots players do not play horses.
Now that's a fact, a fact that track owners know very well so they advertise their slots...and often slots only.

[badcompany]

And the "old grey" thinking as well. ;)

Every generation thinks this, that everything is going to go to H in a handbasket "without them and their ways."

I just had this conversation with my bro about my nephew, his 14 year old son. His world is very different than the one I grew up in when born in the 50's. :)

We "had" our 60's, 70's and 80's, along with the music, the clothing, the fads, the hair, hobbies, etc. The new up and coming generation will define THEIR world in THEIR way. Some of it will leave us old greys behind...heck, they already have in many ways.

I'm not in the least bit "threatened" by it. I promised myself when I got old I wouldn't be an old fogey, and, I'm not. ;) My grandfather was from Russia and thought Kruzchev would end the world as we know it.

There will always be people interested in horse racing, there always has been.

There's two separate points, here; one valid, one not.

Everyone thinks it was better in their day. Whether this is true is open for debate.

That tracks are losing customers is a fact that can be measured by crunching numbers. I'm mainly a harness guy. When I started playing, on a Monday night, Yonkers had a two million dollar handle; a million on-track plus a million off. Today, Yonkers does about a half-million combined.

[Horseplayersbet.com]

Horse players play slots. Slots players do not play horses.
Now that's a fact, a fact that track owners know very well so they advertise their slots...and often slots only.
Some slot players used to play horses. They represented the mooch money in the pools. It has all but disappeared today.

From a track's perspective, they make a lot more money off a player who loses $200 at the track versus $200 at the casino. But in Ontario, the slots are run by the OLG, and they have a huge budget to advertise, plus it is to their best interest that slot players play slots and not horses.

Woodbine advertises horse racing only usually. I don't remember seeing advertising for their slots portion of the track.

The OLG does separate advertising for their non racetrack casinos.

[DJofSD]

Everyone thinks it was better in their day. Whether this is true is open for debate.

It is true about the "in their day" experience.

It is also true that years ago when I was new to handicapping, every card had a lot of races with also eligible lists. Getting early scratches was considered de rigour before any serious handicapping started. Now a days, that is never a problem.

So, for me, the days of full fields and needing to get early scratches is the good old days.

[badcompany]

Ironically, at the PA meet-up in Saratoga, I had a "Mini-Panel" with a few of the guys and asked why exactly should horseracing be subsidized by slots. No one had an answer.

[DJofSD]

Ironically, at the PA meet-up in Saratoga, I had a "Mini-Panel" with a few of the guys and asked why exactly should horseracing be subsidized by slots. No one had an answer.
Hey, it's free money, right? Why not take it.

Well, now they are finding out why they should not have taken it, IMO.

Just remember, it is the servant that takes the money.

[Zman179]

Some slot players used to play horses. They represented the mooch money in the pools. It has all but disappeared today.

From a track's perspective, they make a lot more money off a player who loses $200 at the track versus $200 at the casino.

That is true, but it takes a whole lot less time to get that $200 from the slots player.

Better to make a fast penny than a slow dollar.

[Horseplayersbet.com]

That is true, but it takes a whole lot less time to get that $200 from the slots player.

Better to make a fast penny than a slow dollar.
Not true. At a 10% takeout a slot player gets to bet $2000 on average to lose the $200. At 20%, it takes a horseplayer to bet $1000 to lose on average. I'd say that this accomplished by the average horseplayer or slot player in the same 5 hours of gambling if the person has the $200 to lose.

I also think that if a player only loses $100 of a $200 bankroll, they will play the extra day or two more often than a slot player who will most likely lose the $200 during their sitting....they will just stay more than 5 hours.

[Zman179]

Not true. At a 10% takeout a slot player gets to bet $2000 on average to lose the $200. At 20%, it takes a horseplayer to bet $1000 to lose on average. I'd say that this accomplished by the average horseplayer or slot player in the same 5 hours of gambling if the person has the $200 to lose.

I also think that if a player only loses $100 of a $200 bankroll, they will play the extra day or two more often than a slot player who will most likely lose the $200 during their sitting....they will just stay more than 5 hours.

A slot player playing for five hours is going to bet a whole hell of a lot more than a horseplayer.
In 30 minutes, a regular $2 horseplayer will bet something around $30 if betting on 2-3 tracks.
A quarter or penny slots player will bet on average 75¢ in seven seconds...which translates to about eight pulls or $6 per minute...or $180 in 30 minutes.

[Horseplayersbet.com]

A slot player playing for five hours is going to bet a whole hell of a lot more than a horseplayer.
In 30 minutes, a regular $2 horseplayer will bet something around $30 if betting on 2-3 tracks.
A quarter or penny slots player will bet on average 75¢ in seven seconds...which translates to about eight pulls or $6 per minute...or $180 in 30 minutes.
Someone who brings $200 to lose at the track or the slots is not a $2 bettor.
Someone who bets $360 an hour at slots, is losing $36 an hour. Times that by 5 and that person loses $180 in 5 hours.

Someone who constantly loses $200 at the track on average will bet $1000 on average during 5 hours as well.

This is not a difficult concept because the track takes more than 20% on average, so if a million is bet, $200,000 is lost by players each day.

[BUD]

Sorry I skipped over a page

The biggest problem we face is cost-
Casino games you just play--If it cards you practice.To get a deck of cards is pretty ez unlike our info---What newbie wants to pay all that money to begin with to learn the racing game--He may think they are hiding all those hands.

So I would guess if we are going to charge for this and that--Pay for replays
A newbie who is not going to knock off 2.500 get charged 25cents from some awd also pay 19.95 to not get charged and to see replay--
Your under 45 crowd is not going to bother--

How many want to pay 7 bucks for the DRF-Especially if they really can't read it-
Horse racing is much like Network Marketing--The insiders have it well--They want to keep the outsiders out--When they do-The outsiders money Keeps the Outsiders out-And the insiders very comfortable

My 1 pent

[Tom]

October 24, 2009.
Mark it down.

I agree with 46!;)

I've said this years ago when the fist slots were uncrated - racing is going to regret this. It is a no brainer. Racing is a loser and always will be outside a couple of isolated pockets. Economically speaking, the land it takes up can generate far more revenue with non racing business on them. Slots are a parasite - they get a foot in and then they turn into cancer. They will evolve into vacant malls, empty office builings.......much less overhead, no need to have a huge plot of ground. No brainer.

[Zman179]

Someone who brings $200 to lose at the track or the slots is not a $2 bettor.
Someone who bets $360 an hour at slots, is losing $36 an hour. Times that by 5 and that person loses $180 in 5 hours.

Someone who constantly loses $200 at the track on average will bet $1000 on average during 5 hours as well.

This is not a difficult concept because the track takes more than 20% on average, so if a million is bet, $200,000 is lost by players each day.

Yeah right. 90% of the people who bring $200 to the track are not going to bet $1000 in five hours. That is assuming that bettors are actually going to win enough wagers in order to be able to churn the $1000 and that their bet sizes are going to be large enough in order to bet such an amount.

[DJofSD]

October 24, 2009.
Mark it down.

I agree with 46!;)

I've said this years ago when the fist slots were uncrated - racing is going to regret this. It is a no brainer. Racing is a loser and always will be outside a couple of isolated pockets. Economically speaking, the land it takes up can generate far more revenue with non racing business on them. Slots are a parasite - they get a foot in and then they turn into cancer. They will evolve into vacant malls, empty office builings.......much less overhead, no need to have a huge plot of ground. No brainer.
I had the same reaction yesterday but did not post a response. October 24, 2009 -- at least the stock market did not crash!

Racing venues need to take yet another lesson from professional golf. If you haven't noticed, golf coarses are going green -- literally and figuratively. Justin Timberlake just hosted his own tournament at his coarse and made it well understood he's about being ecologically sensitive and preserving the environment. Racing can do the same.

[Horseplayersbet.com]

Yeah right. 90% of the people who bring $200 to the track are not going to bet $1000 in five hours. That is assuming that bettors are actually going to win enough wagers in order to be able to churn the $1000 and that their bet sizes are going to be large enough in order to bet such an amount.
I'm talking collectively. Lets say a track makes on track $100,000 on a day (representing a $500,000 handle from live betting).
How much do you think the patrons brought to bet that day in total?

[lamboguy]

they brought no more than $130,000 to the track. and i know where you are going with this on takeout.

parimutuel gambling represents a zero sum game no matter what the takeout it. slot machines are hypothetically different, but it might only take $120k to get the same result as a parimutual game due to more frequent events.

when las vegas was not parimutual horserace gambling i bet there and got barred from every single racebook in town, and then got barred in lake tahoe.

the days of non parimutual racing is never coming back in its old form. maybe betting exchanges will be around, but there is little difference.

[Zman179]

I'm talking collectively. Lets say a track makes on track $100,000 on a day (representing a $500,000 handle from live betting).
How much do you think the patrons brought to bet that day in total?

You have people who walked in with $20 and made a mint, and you have people who walked in with a grand and couldn't catch a bus let alone a winner. It all depends.

Also a track is not going to make $100,000 profit off of $500,000 handle, not including simulcasting. For that to happen, the track would have to keep the entire 20% takeout. Obviously that won't happen.

But let's take for example Friday's card at Belmont Park:

Attendance: 2315
On-track handle: $585,891

That equals a per capita of $253 per person. That is not including the amounts bet by those with free admission, or the amounts wagered by horse people. It also doesn't include on-track simulcasting amounts which are not released by NYRA. But let's face it, theoretically speaking, ten people sitting in the VIP room at Belmont could be responsible for 15-20% of the handle amount.

[Pell Mell]

I was reading a column about the V75 over in Sweden. They have huge jackpots and the handle is great.

The argument against having something like that over here is that you need large 14-15 horse fields. Also, those 3/5 shots in a 6 horse field kill our P6 jackpots.
So why does the P6 have to be all on the same day? Everyone can see the handle on the exotics when the BC or triple crown races are running. We need BIG JACKPOTS!
Some one with a little more knowledge than myself may explain the V75 in more detail.

One other thing; I know this may sound crazy but 46 touched on it earlier. I think that big purses are actually hurting the BETTOR. Here's how; I am a spot bettor and only play long shots. I am about to give up because every day I'm running into a situation where I have to beat an odds on horse. I have also figured out which of these odds on horses are usually going to win.
A typical situation: Horse shows form in a 15,000 claimer. Horse is dropping to a 5,000 NW3L, purse is 18 grand or so, winners share 10 Gs, IF horse is claimed, another 5Gs. Horse was only worth around 10 to begin with so nice profit either way. I saw one today that was claimed last week for 20 and taking big drop and if claimed and they win they still make a couple grand.

Maybe I haven't explained this fully but I'm sure you know what I mean. The point being, I see these horses bet down every day and they win. I couldn't bring myself to bet an odds on horse with a gun to my head. It's more profitable and safe to buy some stuff and sell it at a flea market.
I don't know what kind of person is willing to gamble to make next to nothing, so if there's no chance for a score, who in the hell wants to play?:confused:

[Zman179]

I fully agree, Pell Mell. Except in Grade 1 stakes, a horse should not be able to win in one start more than its actually worth.

[Horseplayersbet.com]

You have people who walked in with $20 and made a mint, and you have people who walked in with a grand and couldn't catch a bus let alone a winner. It all depends.

Also a track is not going to make $100,000 profit off of $500,000 handle, not including simulcasting. For that to happen, the track would have to keep the entire 20% takeout. Obviously that won't happen.

But let's take for example Friday's card at Belmont Park:

Attendance: 2315
On-track handle: $585,891

That equals a per capita of $253 per person. That is not including the amounts bet by those with free admission, or the amounts wagered by horse people. It also doesn't include on-track simulcasting amounts which are not released by NYRA. But let's face it, theoretically speaking, ten people sitting in the VIP room at Belmont could be responsible for 15-20% of the handle amount.
The bettors collectively lost around $55 per person on Belmont alone in your example. Doesn't matter where they bet it. We need how much simulcast money was bet at Belmont that day too and also knowledge of how many bettors enter the track for free in order to make a proper example of this.

[Pell Mell]

I fully agree, Pell Mell. Except in Grade 1 stakes, a horse should not be able to win in one start more than its actually worth.

Another point is; Why were claiming rules put in place to begin with? You can't make it profitable to LOSE the horse!

Either lower the purses or change the conditions. There has to be safe guards against entering far superior horses with no monetary risk involved.

Just take a look at all these top trainers at most tracks and you will see them dropping everything out of the sky with little or no risk. A guy like Hollendorfer only needs to make a G or so on each one when he's doing it hundreds of times a year.:bang:

[Valuist]

For racing to survive you must eliminate many of the tracks and have a significant cut in the takeout. I don't think a 10% takeout is low enough; the average young adult is more likely to want to wager on football or basketball. Being level with those sports isn't enough. Even though we have simulcast races going on every couple minutes, newbies are far more likely to wager on a live event. I think most view racing as just too slow paced in this reality TV/iPhone world of today. I think we need to go to about 10-15 tracks operating in the U.S. with 5% takeout. The quality would be excellent and a takeout that low could stimulate new interest.

[price]

Slots is poison for racing in so many ways. One issue that worries me is the perversion of natural market forces in terms of venues closing. Some of the slots aided facilities will likely outlive stronger tracks and that in the end will leave the sport weaker. For example I would be saddened if New Mexico survived tghe purge and NoCal died. We are seeing this in Greyhound racing. Phoenix which for dog standards handles ok is slated to close it's doors soon (no slots) yet places like Dubuque and Tri state who handle no money will remain open due to slots. Contraction is necessary, but it wouldbe better if contration was based solely on the pari-mutuel part of the business.

[lamboguy]

I fully agree, Pell Mell. Except in Grade 1 stakes, a horse should not be able to win in one start more than its actually worth.years ago when horses ran twice a week it took 2 wins to get your claim money money back. today horses might run once a month. true what you say about the amount of money the pures pay, in reality though if you lower the purse today you are going to have less people in the game.

i have been saying this now on this board for quite some time, the game needs a complete structural overhaul from top to bottom. everyone always points to one thing that is wrong instead of looking at the game in a collective way. what that means is that if you just make 1 isolated change another component of the game will suffer. everything needs to change simutaneously to have a lasting effect. lowering takeout would not be bad, but just doing that will only prolong the agony. this game has had small holes punched into it for years without anyone adressing the problems. the game is now paying for it with misery plus interest.

[Greyfox]

And the "old grey" thinking as well. ;)

Every generation thinks this, that everything is going to go to H in a handbasket "without them and their ways."

I just had this conversation with my bro about my nephew, his 14 year old son. His world is very different than the one I grew up in when born in the 50's. :)

We "had" our 60's, 70's and 80's, along with the music, the clothing, the fads, the hair, hobbies, etc. The new up and coming generation will define THEIR world in THEIR way. Some of it will leave us old greys behind...heck, they already have in many ways.

I'm not in the least bit "threatened" by it. I promised myself when I got old I wouldn't be an old fogey, and, I'm not. ;) My grandfather was from Russia and thought Kruzchev would end the world as we know it.

There will always be people interested in horse racing, there always has been.

Let's start with your last comment. Either you didn't read my earlier post or you have a poor short term verbal memory. I said that there would always be horse racing, but not necessarily as we know it.

Let's move up to your second last comment about Khrushchev who's name you never learned to spell or don't remember how to. He could have ended the world. He didn't. We're lucky he didn't.

Sure we all grew up with old timers who thought the world was going to hell in a handbasket. I'd be hard pressed to tell any of them that the world is a better place today than the 1950's. But that's a subject for another thread.
In the meanwhile, it's not "grey thinking" to see that horse racing is on life support in comparison to 80 years ago. It's simply an observation. If you don't see it you don't see it. Less and less newbies are coming to the track.
Our local venue is absolutely empty most days of the year.
Check out this picture:

http://www.manyhattyreturns.com/wp-content/uploads/2009/07/mens-horseracing-hats.jpg.

[Pell Mell]

Another point is; Why were claiming rules put in place to begin with? You can't make it profitable to LOSE the horse!

Either lower the purses or change the conditions. There has to be safe guards against entering far superior horses with no monetary risk involved.

Just take a look at all these top trainers at most tracks and you will see them dropping everything out of the sky with little or no risk. A guy like Hollendorfer only needs to make a G or so on each one when he's doing it hundreds of times a year.:bang:

A couple examples today.

DEL 1st--#4

2nd--4,5

7th--8

8th--8

[WinterTriangle]

Either you didn't read my earlier post or you have a poor short term verbal memory. I said that there would always be horse racing, but not necessarily as we know it.

Let's move up to your second last comment about Khrushchev who's name you never learned to spell or don't remember how to.

Talk about a *reactive* person. Your entire post to me is littered with personal insults. I never make posts like that to anyone here. :confused:


My home track is Oaklawn. It looks like the photo on stakes days. (minus the men's hats LOL)

In the old days, there was less competition for entertainment. I'm the only person I know in real life who is into horse racing.

That's why I frequent forums like this one......but I like it better when it's conversational, not peronsal insult-slinging. ;)

[Citation1947]

Slot and video poker machines are like crack. They draw the weak willed/minded away from the betting windows.

[depalma113]

Horse racing is dying because it is not on TV at a reguarly scheduled time every week. If there were graded races carried live every Friday night on ESPN, horse racing would regain it's foothold.

[Horseplayersbet.com]

Horse racing is dying because it is not on TV at a reguarly scheduled time every week. If there were graded races carried live every Friday night on ESPN, horse racing would regain it's foothold.
Horse racing is all over the airwaves in Ontario, and it doesn't help one bit. Horse racing is dying because bettor's bankrolls don't last due to high takeout.

[Greyfox]

Talk about a *reactive* person. Your entire post to me is littered with personal insults. I never make posts like that to anyone here. :confused:


. ;)

You say you don't make insults but look closer at your posts.
What you do is slide the knife in with a velvet glove.
You referred to my thinking in a back handed way as "grey" thinking.
You said that when you were younger you never wanted to think like an "old fogie" with the implication being that I was.

You might believe that you don't do that, but in this instance that is what you did. Naturally I reacted to insinuations of that nature. If what you did was unintentional then so be it. I can only suggest more reflection before posting comments of that nature.

[badcompany]

Horse racing is dying because it is not on TV at a reguarly scheduled time every week. If there were graded races carried live every Friday night on ESPN, horse racing would regain it's foothold.

This is very true. Someone mentioned that you don't become a racing fan watching it on television. I disagree. My first exposure to racing was, as a kid, watching the Yonkers show with Stan Bergstein and Spencer Ross on Saturday nights.

[lurker]

Great thread. I doubt that any track management type will bother reading it. My question for getting newbies to the track (not online wagering, but getting them to physically get their tush to the track), is what is fun about the track? When comparing the track to other gambling/entertainment venues how does the track rate?

In my opinion the track doesn't rate well. The game is slow compared to any casino game. Even Keno is faster. Actually keno is a good comparison for a newbie. About the same takeout, same dollar amounts bet per game and you get to cheer for your balls to be drawn. Except of course that you got to park and enter for free and the pretty cocktail waitress gave you a free drink.

How about getting races off every 5 minutes duing the day? The tracks should be able to coordinate when races are going off to keep fans interested. There s nothing fun trying to watch two races that are going off at the same time.

Maybe some decent food at a price that isn't double the price of non track outlets? It doesn't have to be gormet, but can you sell a decent burger+fries +drink for less than $12? Do I really need a jacket to go to the clubhouse dinning room? It's 90 degrees and humid and you expect me to wear a jacket and or a tie?

Can you imagine taking a date to the track? Most are cavernous ratholes. In the past the only place that I could possibly consider bringing a date would have been the Meadowlands.

I agree that newbies don't care about takeout. When you went to a casino for the first time did you care that the takeout on roulette was 5%? Probably not. What you cared about was having a good time. Maybe win a few bucks, have a few drinks and have a thrill or two. Racing refuses to face the facts that no one under the age of 30 cares about their product.

Do fans show up for big days? Yes they do, but it has nothing to do with racing. It has to do with the fact that the day is an "event". These are the same people who show up at Times Square to freeze their butts off once a year.

Bring the bookmakers back to the track. That would add some excitement. Kill some time between races shopping for the best price. Throw a couple of colorful touts into the mix.

Just my two cents from a guy who has been going to the track for 30 years and is sad to see something that was onced loved turn to crap.

[Greyfox]

How about getting races off every 5 minutes duing the day? p.

:ThmbUp: :ThmbUp: Good suggestion. In Britain they run like trains. Every 10 minutes.

[thespaah]

A real eye-opener this was the first International Simulcast Conference in Saratoga last summer. Read more at this Standard bred Canada link
http://www.standardbredcanada.ca/news/10-13-09/panel-change-horse-racing-doomed.html


Jeff Gural, the owner of Vernon Downs and Tioga Downs, gave an audience of simulcasters a sobering wake up call today when he stated, “It’s so logical that the sport is going to die.”

Gural, speaking on a panel titled, Change —You Can Run But You Can’t Hide at the International Simulcast Conference in Saratoga Springs, NY, said that racetrack lobbyists who recently fought together with horsemen for slots at racetracks will soon lobby governments to eliminate racing from racetracks.

“Once a racino opens, that casino company looks at racing as a loser,” said Gural. “You’ll see the lobbyists of those track owners in the legislature trying to convince government to take the money back, allowing the racinos to get rid of racing.”

“Participants in the horse industry don’t get it but they’ll learn soon,” said Gural. “The horse industry doesn’t want to do anything to help themselves. The horse industry is very happy to be a welfare recipient. They believe somehow that they are entitled.”

Gural, who says that he himself as a horse owner will continue to fight for horse racing, pointed to racing’s failure to give fans and bettors what they want.

“It’s very unlikely that horse racing will voluntarily undergo any change,” he said. The industry is dominated by the breeders for some reason – I don’t get it. Unless the breeding business collapses any further, there won’t be any change.”

Comment by attendee at conference: "I couldn't agree more with the comments. The industry is being subsidized by the Slots industry and at some point in time they are going to pull the plug or at least ask for concessions." THis guy has me confused. If there's no racing then why the hell is there a need for breeders?