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View Full Version : isn't exotic betting,betting blind?


acorn54
10-19-2009, 02:14 AM
in win betting,exacta and quinella betting you can see the potential payoffs and decide if you are getting value
however in triples and other exotic betting schemes you are unaware of the probable payoffs, so is it really wise to bet such wagers if you are blind to the possible payoffs? you have no guide to whether you are getting value for your wagering dollar.

Imriledup
10-19-2009, 02:20 AM
I guess people just assume in the long run that they'll get 'what they are supposed to get' most of the time.

I've always advocated that you should be able to 'check a price' if you want to. You can check prices in Target before you purchase goods, why not have the ability to plug in any random Tri price and find out how much money is on that combo?

CBedo
10-19-2009, 02:21 AM
Although it would be great to have payoff information for these exotics, you're not totally blind. Experience gives you some guide to what payoffs could be based on inference from win odds, exacta & double odds as well. Also your wagering history should give you some guidance to where the value is.

acorn54
10-19-2009, 02:35 AM
Although it would be great to have payoff information for these exotics, you're not totally blind. Experience gives you some guide to what payoffs could be based on inference from win odds, exacta & double odds as well. Also your wagering history should give you some guidance to where the value is.
i don't know about you but i have been wagering on the horses since 1978 and still to this day i can't predict what the win odds are going to be in a reliable fashion that suits me. as a matter of fact oftentimes it's the horses that go off at higher odds than i would have suspected that give me the greatest value.

CBedo
10-19-2009, 03:20 AM
i don't know about you but i have been wagering on the horses since 1978 and still to this day i can't predict what the win odds are going to be in a reliable fashion that suits me. as a matter of fact oftentimes it's the horses that go off at higher odds than i would have suspected that give me the greatest value.Predicting win odds is a whole different discussion. Your question was about betting blind into some of the exotics, and my point was that you can use the public's win odds & exotic payoffs that you can see to estimate the exotic payoffs that you can't see.

JustCoolGene
10-19-2009, 04:43 AM
There are two ways to handle betting the exotics when you are blind to the payoffs because you don't have the actual payoffs for each possible exotic ticket.

One way is the method CBedo mentioned "using the public's win odds & exotic payoffs that you can see to estimate the exotic payoffs that you can't see". The best way to handle the calculations with this method is ATR or "At the Races" software. This software downloads the real time payoffs in all Win, Place, Show, Exacta, Quinilla, and Daily Double pools. It uses these pools to infer odds in unseen exotics like the trifecta. ATR allows the actual and inferred payoffs to be automatically exported to a cvs file minutes before the race goes off. Plenty of time for your software to use this file to generate a list to manually enter your selected bets or use the file to generate a list of selections to be loaded into PremierTurfClub or Youbet's conditional wagering system.

The second way is if you have a "good" program that predicts how the public bets and what the final odds will be. This "public" predicted oddsline can be used to generate an inferred odds payoff for any exotic.

God Bless All
Gene

acorn54
10-19-2009, 11:32 AM
There are two ways to handle betting the exotics when you are blind to the payoffs because you don't have the actual payoffs for each possible exotic ticket.

One way is the method CBedo mentioned "using the public's win odds & exotic payoffs that you can see to estimate the exotic payoffs that you can't see". The best way to handle the calculations with this method is ATR or "At the Races" software. This software downloads the real time payoffs in all Win, Place, Show, Exacta, Quinilla, and Daily Double pools. It uses these pools to infer odds in unseen exotics like the trifecta. ATR allows the actual and inferred payoffs to be automatically exported to a cvs file minutes before the race goes off. Plenty of time for your software to use this file to generate a list to manually enter your selected bets or use the file to generate a list of selections to be loaded into PremierTurfClub or Youbet's conditional wagering system.
it seems to me you are making a big assumtion that the win odds can be a guide to the probable payoffs in exotics such as triples.


The second way is if you have a "good" program that predicts how the public bets and what the final odds will be. This "public" predicted oddsline can be used to generate an inferred odds payoff for any exotic.

God Bless All
Gene

it seems to me you are making a big assumption that the win odds can be a reliable guide to the probable payoffs in exotics such as triples.

SchagFactorToWin
10-19-2009, 12:00 PM
There are two ways to handle betting the exotics when you are blind to the payoffs because you don't have the actual payoffs for each possible exotic ticket...
Gene

Thanks for the ATR tip. I spent the weekend trying to figure out how to track the exacta payouts for my picks. This seems perfect.

Light
10-19-2009, 12:26 PM
is it really wise to bet such wagers if you are blind to the possible payoffs?

This is why there is something called "ticket construction" for those kinds of wagers.

acorn54
10-19-2009, 12:47 PM
This is why there is something called "ticket construction" for those kinds of wagers.
i don't see the connection between ticket construction and not knowing the possible payoffs of triples and other exotics, please explain

formula_2002
10-19-2009, 01:28 PM
in win betting,exacta and quinella betting you can see the potential payoffs and decide if you are getting value
however in triples and other exotic betting schemes you are unaware of the probable payoffs, so is it really wise to bet such wagers if you are blind to the possible payoffs? you have no guide to whether you are getting value for your wagering dollar.
if you has enough history of your "blind bets", it may give you an insight to future blind bet results.

such as ;
"For a previous exacta analysis of the model, see http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/...ead.php?t=61591"

CBedo
10-19-2009, 02:04 PM
it seems to me you are making a big assumption that the win odds can be a reliable guide to the probable payoffs in exotics such as triples.It's not an assumption; it's true if you look at historical payoff relationships, you can get an idea of what's going on. The assumption is that the relationships haven't changed today. It won't be right 100% of the time, but it will guide you in value decisions most of the time, and since usually most require big edges to play those exotics anyway, you don't have to split hairs between small differences. You're just trying to get an idea if the edge will be there or not.

acorn54
10-19-2009, 03:15 PM
It's not an assumption; it's true if you look at historical payoff relationships, you can get an idea of what's going on. The assumption is that the relationships haven't changed today. It won't be right 100% of the time, but it will guide you in value decisions most of the time, and since usually most require big edges to play those exotics anyway, you don't have to split hairs between small differences. You're just trying to get an idea if the edge will be there or not.
i find it hard to believe there is an accurate correlation between win odds and odds in exotics since you are using win bettor percerptions of a horses chances versus horseplayers who play the exotics, but if you are satisfied with the results you are getting i can't argue with success.

fmolf
10-19-2009, 03:20 PM
not only can you not see if you are getting value but usually the takeout is much higher in these wagers.In my opinion their is too much diversity on most wagering menus at all tracks.I liked it better when the only triple on the card was the ninth race at nyra tracks and the exacta was a five dollar bet.Their is so many wagering choices today on each race that money is spread around thinly.My opinion is less would be more.Meadows stated that tris and supers are sucker bets!...I am experimenting with different methods of playing them because they do offer large payouts when you hit which is why they are so popular i am guessing.

CBedo
10-19-2009, 03:27 PM
i find it hard to believe there is an accurate correlation between win odds and odds in exotics since you are using win bettor percerptions of a horses chances versus horseplayers who play the exotics, but if you are satisfied with the results you are getting i can't argue with success.It's not about "belief" or "faith," it's just about the math, and if you choose not to believe it or not to do the work, then I guess you are betting blind.

CBedo
10-19-2009, 03:29 PM
not only can you not see if you are getting value but usually the takeout is much higher in these wagers.In my opinion their is too much diversity on most wagering menus at all tracks.I liked it better when the only triple on the card was the ninth race at nyra tracks and the exacta was a five dollar bet.Their is so many wagering choices today on each race that money is spread around thinly.My opinion is less would be more.Meadows stated that tris and supers are sucker bets!...I am experimenting with different methods of playing them because they do offer large payouts when you hit which is why they are so popular i am guessing.Although I think some of the super exotic takeouts are insane, they are often lower than the effective takeout of the parlay for bets such as the pick 3.

JustCoolGene
10-19-2009, 04:19 PM
it seems to me you are making a big assumption that the win odds can be a reliable guide to the probable payoffs in exotics such as triples.
I am not making that assumption at all. All I am saying that by using all the payoffs in all available pools, you can infer an estimate of payoffs in unseen exotics. For example, lets say you if you wish to predict an estimate of the #1 with the #2 with the #3 in a trifecta. First, you get the payoffs of the #1 with #2 in both the perfecta and quinilla pools. Then look at payoffs in the win, place, show, and Daily Double pools to make sure there is approximately the same dispersion of money in all pools.

If the #1 and #2 are the first and second favorite, the they should be the first and second favorite in all pools. If the 1-2 is not the lowest payoff, then probably the 1-2 combo might not be live. You also look at the place money of the #1 and #2 and maybe spot money off one or both of them, which also might make that combo dead. If the race you are looking at is the second half of the Daily Double, then the #1 and #2 should be the first and second favorite in that pool also.

OK, lets say everything checks out and the 1-2 combo is legitimate in all pools. Then do everything over again with all remaining horses in the race and use these payoffs to calculate each horse running third with the 1-2 combo.

If you are looking at betting a pick-3 and the first leg is also the first leg in the Daily Double. Use all pools, especially the Daily Double, to get predicted payoffs for the first two legs. Then, just like the trifecta, use either the track morning line, computer generated morning line, or morning line created by your own judgement , and predict the third leg payoffs.

If you are good at predicting the morning line or use an accurate computer generated morning line in addition to using all the available published pool payoffs, you have a very powerful method to predict probable payoffs in exotics. If you have an accurate odds-line predicting the probabilities of each horse winning, then you can compare your odds-line against the predicted payoffs in unseen exotics and look for value. Of course, software is the best answer to the application of this method, but it can be done without software. After you make your handicapping selections, just take a minute to check "ALL" available pools and see if there is either more or less money bet on your selections than you think should be there.

God Bless All
Gene

formula_2002
10-19-2009, 04:38 PM
if you has enough history of your "blind bets", it may give you an insight to future blind bet results.

such as ;
"For a previous exacta analysis of the model, see http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/...ead.php?t=61591"

this is good to let it pass by;
todays posted picks:

http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/showthread.php?p=771219#post771219
4 structured exacta "not quite blind" plays returned $23.20, $4.80,$15.4,$9.20"
total excata bet was $16.00, total returned was $52.60.
the pools are so small, you have to project who will be the 1st, 2nd and third betting choices by looking at all the "will pay" pools.

I say "not quite blind" because so far my history tells me its not the final odds, but the final odds rankings thats important.

ranchwest
10-19-2009, 04:54 PM
Saying exotics might not offer value is almost like saying a Hershey's chocolate bar might not taste good. If you don't have chalk dominating the upper position(s), there will be value.

Light
10-19-2009, 05:16 PM
i don't see the connection between ticket construction and not knowing the possible payoffs of triples and other exotics, please explain

Ticket construction offers you a way to maximize return. This will offset not knowing what the payoffs will be.If the payoffs are low,good ticket construction will have the payoff multiple times.

acorn54
10-19-2009, 05:26 PM
It's not about "belief" or "faith," it's just about the math, and if you choose not to believe it or not to do the work, then I guess you are betting blind.
can you provide reference published mathematical documents or internet sites that illustrate what you are talking about as to getting accurate payoffs for triples and other exotics from the win pools?
i would be interested in such information and if i am convinced it is not just mumbo jumbo i may delve into betting triples and other exotics using such information.
thank you.

macdiarmida
10-19-2009, 05:27 PM
It all doesn’t matter unless you have a good idea/model for determining real odds in the first place. For one, most of the money comes in at the very last minute or two. As you are watching the horses racing and seeing the win odds go down on the faves, you are also experiencing reduction in exotic prices, too. So your idea/model for what final odds will be will have to consider what odds look like (say) 3 minutes to post when you are looking at the pools.

I agree with CBedo and Gene on using existing data to project a payout. If you have an overlay in the exacta, should you not then think the tri/super were overlays? The major exception I can think of is when the 1/9 fave finishes 3rd. And as already stated, past history will tell you what to expect in situations where faves at various prices finish 3rd.

There are caveats. You must know what the takeout is for each exotic bet at each track you play. WOX is still at 28.3% for tris, but 20.5% for exactas, 16.95 for straight bets. You might lose your entire estimated advantage from takeout differences.

The projection method also fails when exotic pools are very small. Example is the South American races where US bets are a separate pool. You’ll see many large tri and super payouts vs. win odds. But with typically maybe $3,000 in each of those pools it limits what you can win – the approx. 25% takeout means that a dollar ticket (or equivalent) as the sole winner gets the holder(s) about $2250. Massive super payouts are illusory -- the payouts are reported as $2 payouts, but there may be only a couple 10cent tix as winners.

IMO it’s better to think “vertical”, choosing among exacta, quinella, tri and super bets (when available) to see where the value lies. You can hedge with combos of those bets, including building slightly different tix as noted above. Getting complicated, eh?

fmolf
10-19-2009, 05:28 PM
Saying exotics might not offer value is almost like saying a Hershey's chocolate bar might not taste good. If you don't have chalk dominating the upper position(s), there will be value.
being that one of the top two favorites hit the board about 85% of the time. I would tend to believe that most trifecta payouts are underlaid. When you figure in the odds of hitting three long to medium priced horses that are not the top two betting choices.That is not to say you cannot make money doing it you just need to be very selective in how you spread and what races you play.Locating races where the top two choices are vulnerable is the key.patience is the second most important.

CBedo
10-19-2009, 07:21 PM
can you provide reference published mathematical documents or internet sites that illustrate what you are talking about as to getting accurate payoffs for triples and other exotics from the win pools?
i would be interested in such information and if i am convinced it is not just mumbo jumbo i may delve into betting triples and other exotics using such information.
thank you.No, instead of relying on some wives tale that someone else told me, I just did the work myself. Here's an example that I just put together in about 10 minutes:

I just pulled the last 1000 races at BEL & SAR that had one and only one exacta payoff (actually 1035 races). Of those, I randomly set aside 100 of them and used the others to construct a model. Using only, the odds and the odds rank of the first two finishers as well as field size, I was able to come up with a model that predicted the exacta payoff to a fairly high degree of accuracy. The correlation between the predicted and actual payoffs as measure by the r squared number was 0.95. To test it, I then ran the model to predict the other 100 races. It projected the exacta payoff within 20% in 83 of the 100 races (eyeballing the errors gave some clear cut examples of when it would be wrong which could be used to improve the model as well).

So it's pretty clear that even though they are different pools (and some would say different bettors), overall, the win & exacta pools correlate pretty highly. It's the same in the other pools. Yes, it would be much better to have the actual payoffs (as we do in the exacta), but you should by no means be "blind" to projected payoffs.

I do agree that the smaller pool tracks will have a higher variance due to illiquidity issues, but they're still doable.

JustCoolGene
10-19-2009, 09:24 PM
Using final odds rankings in 17,000 races that had a trifecta, I pulled the 2800 races which had both favorites hit the first two positions in the trifecta. I selected all field sizes and all tracks in U.S. and Canada. I just want to illustrate that you can use perfecta odds rankings to predict average trifecta payoffs.

The first set of data shows the (1-2) favorite beating the second favorite with the 3rd through 9th odds ranking as the bottom slot on trifecta tickets. The first line 1-2 with the 3rd betting choice pays an average of $60.00. Use the 4th choice on the bottom of your ticket and you can predict an average of $84.00. You can see a direct correlation as you use the 5th choice, the 6th choice, etc.

Favorite beating the second favorite

1-2 with

3
----------
Average: 60.04
Count: 470

4
----------
Average: 84.09
Count: 420

5
----------
Average: 99.65
Count: 298

6
----------
Average: 124.57
Count: 204

7
----------
Average: 164.49
Count: 120

8
----------
Average: 196.27
Count: 61

9
----------
Average: 219.75
Count: 34

----------
Total Average: 98.21
Total Count: 1607


---------------------------------------------------------------------------

The following second set of data shows the (2-1) second favorite beating favorite with the 3rd through 9th odds ranking on the bottom slot of trifecta tickets.

Second favorite beating the favorite

2-1 with

3
----------
Average: 81.17
Count: 351

4
----------
Average: 99.21
Count: 315

5
----------
Average: 176.10
Count: 211

6
----------
Average: 187.28
Count: 177

7
----------
Average: 234.17
Count: 95

8
----------
Average: 299.49
Count: 56

9
----------
Average: 607.15
Count: 25

----------
Total Average: 149.79
Total Count: 1230


God Bless All
Gene

raybo
10-19-2009, 09:39 PM
As I've stated many times before, there is no mathematical calculation that will give you the "will pay" for tris or supers. Being able to "estimate" those probables comes from experience, and then you are only able to estimate ,fairly accurately, what the minimum payout for your ticket should pay.

Knowing your hit rate and your average ticket cost tells you what probable minimum payout you can accept. If you can't accept that payout then you must pass the race.

Some here have questioned the value in wagers of these types. IMO, anyone who questions the value of tris and supers doesn't know nearly enough about these types of exotics to wager on them.

You can take my word, as a superfecta only player with over 30 years of horse racing experience and a "pro" at one time, or not. I really don't care one way or the other, other than to say that wagers of this type can be very profitable. I'm not talking about an ROI of a couple of pennies per dollar bet. I'm talking about 40+% sustained over several years.

You don't get there overnight and if you're not willing to put in the time to gain the experience and skills, then you're better off not bothering. It took me over 20 years to get there because I had no one telling me all this stuff.

There are ways to beat this game and this forum contains those methods, if you care to search the archives for the ideas and information.

ranchwest
10-19-2009, 10:01 PM
being that one of the top two favorites hit the board about 85% of the time. I would tend to believe that most trifecta payouts are underlaid. When you figure in the odds of hitting three long to medium priced horses that are not the top two betting choices.That is not to say you cannot make money doing it you just need to be very selective in how you spread and what races you play.Locating races where the top two choices are vulnerable is the key.patience is the second most important.

Every race is different. I remember a maiden race where the favorite was about as sure of a "lock" as could be. Far superior, good early foot, the horse is almost certain to jump to the lead and have the other front types wear out chasing. The only thing required is to find the best closers underneath and maybe throw in a few that figure for potential.

Sure enough, this even money horse went to the lead, wore out close rivals and the back of the pack picked up the under positions. I had a dime super with a 39/1 in second and the super paid about $139 on a dime.

You don't necessarily have to be able to eliminate favorites from both 1st and 2nd. After constructing a lot of super tickets, you'll have an idea of what the likely payouts will be. Sometimes you get lucky. A few months ago I had one that I figured would pay at least $200 and it paid $580 on a dime. Seldom does a super pay significantly less than I expect.

raybo
10-19-2009, 10:16 PM
Every race is different. I remember a maiden race where the favorite was about as sure of a "lock" as could be. Far superior, good early foot, the horse is almost certain to jump to the lead and have the other front types wear out chasing. The only thing required is to find the best closers underneath and maybe throw in a few that figure for potential.

Sure enough, this even money horse went to the lead, wore out close rivals and the back of the pack picked up the under positions. I had a dime super with a 39/1 in second and the super paid about $139 on a dime.

You don't necessarily have to be able to eliminate favorites from both 1st and 2nd. After constructing a lot of super tickets, you'll have an idea of what the likely payouts will be. Sometimes you get lucky. A few months ago I had one that I figured would pay at least $200 and it paid $580 on a dime. Seldom does a super pay significantly less than I expect.

That is what I mean by estimating the minimum probable payout. The minimum, in this case was $200, obviously the "minimum" selections didn't hit but you still had enough coverage to get the hit anyway, and a much better payout.

This is the essence of playing the super (or tri), know what the least you can expect is, then wait until you hit the big one. The "minimum" payouts just furnish cash flow to allow you to wait for the big ones, that will certainly come, if you structure your tickets well enough.

ranchwest
10-19-2009, 10:26 PM
That is what I mean by estimating the minimum probable payout. The minimum, in this case was $200, obviously the "minimum" selections didn't hit but you still had enough coverage to get the hit anyway, and a much better payout.

This is the essence of playing the super (or tri), know what the least you can expect is, then wait until you hit the big one. The "minimum" payouts just furnish cash flow to allow you to wait for the big ones, that will certainly come, if you structure your tickets well enough.

I understand what you're saying and agree, but to be honest the minimum I was referencing was post-race. Pre-race there could have been a smaller payout, but I figured there was excellent potential in the race.

CapperLou
10-19-2009, 10:43 PM
Ticket construction offers you a way to maximize return. This will offset not knowing what the payoffs will be.If the payoffs are low,good ticket construction will have the payoff multiple times.


In your opinion who wrote the best book or paper on ticket construction for exactas in particular and tri's & supers.
Years ago I read Mitchell's book, Thoroughbred Handicapping As An Investment (which was well thought of at the time).

I also agree that it is critical to know the takeout at each track on the plays you are making. I'll play into a 20% take exacta pool, but at 27%--"no way" I say to track management!!!

fmolf
10-20-2009, 02:20 PM
In your opinion who wrote the best book or paper on ticket construction for exactas in particular and tri's & supers.
Years ago I read Mitchell's book, Thoroughbred Handicapping As An Investment (which was well thought of at the time).

I also agree that it is critical to know the takeout at each track on the plays you are making. I'll play into a 20% take exacta pool, but at 27%--"no way" I say to track management!!!
I'm with you Lou.I do not like the 25% and up bets.Meadowlands has a 10 cent super with 15% takeout only problem there is that most of the fields are small.I only like to bet supers in fields of 9 or more as a general rule and basically just use them as fun bets when i have no solid opinion.I am doing well betting on my exactas using meadows chart as a guide.If payout on my selected horses does not meet the overlay criteria then no bet,win bet only if horse meets my odds estimate for being an overlay.Patience is the key ingredient in my method.

CBedo
10-20-2009, 03:05 PM
In your opinion who wrote the best book or paper on ticket construction for exactas in particular and tri's & supers.
Years ago I read Mitchell's book, Thoroughbred Handicapping As An Investment (which was well thought of at the time).Lou, Mitchell wrote a later book, Commonsense Betting, which I think is a very good book. There are some things in it that I don't necessarily totally agree with, but overall it is a very good read, and should give you plenty of ideas on ticket construction structure.

JustCoolGene
10-20-2009, 03:54 PM
In your opinion who wrote the best book or paper on ticket construction for exactas in particular and tri's & supers.


Lou, check out "Exotic Betting" by Steven Christ. It is a very good book on ticket construction in both multihorse, and multirace betting. The book covers intrarace exotics like the exacta, quinilla, trifecta, and superfecta. It also shows readers how to construct tickets in mutiraces like the Daily Double, Pick-3, Pick-4, and Pick-6. Very good book to study.

God Bless All
Gene

CBedo
10-20-2009, 03:57 PM
Lou, check out "Exotic Betting" by Steven Christ. It is a very good book on ticket construction in both multihorse, and multirace betting. The book covers intrarace exotics like the exacta, quinilla, trifecta, superfecta. It also show readers how to construct tickets in mutiraces like the Daily Double, Pick-3, Pick-4, and Pick-6. Very good book to study.

God Bless All
GeneThumbs up to that one as well. If you add Barry Meadow's Money Secrets at the Racetrack to the list, you have the Holy Trinity of money mangement books as far as I'm concerned.

CapperLou
10-20-2009, 04:12 PM
Thumbs up to that one as well. If you add Barry Meadow's Money Secrets at the Racetrack to the list, you have the Holy Trinity of money mangement books as far as I'm concerned.

Chris:

I have the CommonSense Book--will have to pull it out. I will get Steve's book which I know about, but never bought--and--will definitely purchase Barry's "MoneySecrets" book which I know to be a good one.

Does anyone have a spreadsheet on the major circuits showing the takeout on each exotic bet? That would be wonderful for the entire board.

After so many years and so many guys telling me how much I am leaving on the table, I recently started playing exactas at certain tracks--it's only been about six weeks--and am having good success. Don't know how long it will last--we'll have to give it some time. WOX, which is a +roi venue for me most meets--is fine for exactas because they only kill you with the tri's etc.,but are just over 20% on the exacta--so I get a break there and a chance to play.

Guys, thanks for the rapid response information. Appreciate it.

CBedo
10-20-2009, 04:45 PM
Chris:
Does anyone have a spreadsheet on the major circuits showing the takeout on each exotic bet? That would be wonderful for the entire board.HANA to the rescue! http://www.horseplayersassociation.org/hanatrackratingsbytrackname.html

Sortable if you click on the column names.

SMOO
10-20-2009, 04:48 PM
With all the late money pouring into the various pools, it's all betting blind IMO.

CBedo
10-20-2009, 04:51 PM
With all the late money pouring into the various pools, it's all betting blind IMO.Yes, of course, none of that is predictable..... :rolleyes:

macdiarmida
10-20-2009, 05:21 PM
Originally posted by SMOO
With all the late money pouring into the various pools, it's all betting blind IMO.If you want certainty, you really shouldn't be at the racetrack. With experience or stats, you can closely estimate (NOT pinpoint) final, final odds on your key(s). Then you'll know ahead of time when to get involved and bet.

So you skip a race where your key goes off at 8/5 rather than even. It happens. But it cost you nothing to pass, and there's always another race, or even another race on another day.

Further, you can still hang out by a clerk or machine (or take up space at a machine -- hisss!) and cancel everything at the last 30 seconds if you don't like the odds. Does anyone really do this? A few people do.

fmolf
10-20-2009, 05:26 PM
Yes, of course, none of that is predictable..... :rolleyes:
If you spend $40 dollars on a tri ticket,it must pay $440 to just get you ten to one!Does not sound like such a good bet to me?
I use barry Meadows exacta overlay chart and it works very well.Mitchells book is excellent as well.Exotic betting is good too if your focus is on multi-race wagers,as far as i am concerned no new info or strategies are offered for same race exotics.

TrifectaMike
10-20-2009, 05:59 PM
If you spend $40 dollars on a tri ticket,it must pay $440 to just get you ten to one!Does not sound like such a good bet to me?
I use barry Meadows exacta overlay chart and it works very well.Mitchells book is excellent as well.Exotic betting is good too if your focus is on multi-race wagers,as far as i am concerned no new info or strategies are offered for same race exotics.

Yeah, sounds like a terrific bet to me. $ 40 is more than enough to cover my basic tri bet. My basic bet is a 3/5/5... just $36. But one doesn't stop there.

In order to be a successful tri bettor versus a win bettor one has to change their beliefs as well as their approach to the game.

Win odds are insufficient. One requires a method to determine place and show odds.

For example, if you knew (obviously a subjective probabilties) that a 20-1 shot has place odds of 3-1 and show odds of 2-1 ( and carrys the effective 20-1 odds into the tri pool in all positions), would you not consider this a good bet. Heck yeah, WHAT AN OVERLAY!!!!

Win odds alone are insufficient. I play all trifectas independent of the odds on the winner, (unless it's a smal field less than 7), when I have an overlay with the place or show horse.

Mike

Light
10-20-2009, 08:23 PM
The bottom line is if you hit an exotic you will normally be well paid. Occasionally you get a dud payoff but that is the exception rather than the norm. And many times the payoffs are overlays which will more than make up for the underlays. This is why I dont even worry about how much it will pay.

fmolf
10-21-2009, 05:51 PM
The bottom line is if you hit an exotic you will normally be well paid. Occasionally you get a dud payoff but that is the exception rather than the norm. And many times the payoffs are overlays which will more than make up for the underlays. This is why I dont even worry about how much it will pay.well paid maybe, but not in relation to the odds of actually hitting the bet.

raybo
10-21-2009, 06:09 PM
well paid maybe, but not in relation to the odds of actually hitting the bet.

Figure this out then:

8% hit rate
$300 minimum payout requirement for any wager
$12 average ticket cost ($1 superfecta)

Don't worry yourself about the high takeout rates for superfectas, I've already taken that into account in the $300 minimum payout requirement.

Now, what was it you were saying?

Cratos
10-21-2009, 07:01 PM
in win betting,exacta and quinella betting you can see the potential payoffs and decide if you are getting value
however in triples and other exotic betting schemes you are unaware of the probable payoffs, so is it really wise to bet such wagers if you are blind to the possible payoffs? you have no guide to whether you are getting value for your wagering dollar.

Betting exotics is not betting blindly; it is betting without all of the choices being displayed even though they are calculated.

Let’s suppose we have 10 horses in a race and we want to make all of the permutations (groupings) of the superfecta which is four horses arranged in an exact order.

However racetracks do not have the equipment to display all of the superfecta permutations (groupings) and to find the number of four-horse permutations (groupings) that we can make from the 10 horse without repeated numbers we write it symbolically (10_P_4).

This is an easy representation because there are 5040 such permutations (groupings) and as was said earlier, the racetrack doesn’t have the equipment to display them all out.

As the race field become larger, the number of permutations (groupings) becomes exponentially greater. For instance if we double the field size to 20 horses the number of permutations (groupings) for the superfecta become 116,280.

It should be noted that if we were just choosing combinations without respect to order the number of groupings would be reduced to 210.

Also it should be remembered that the exotic superfecta pool in this instance is totally separate from the WPS pools and because a horse is at x-odds in the win pool it is not necessarily true that it will follow the same x-odds in the exotic pool even though that is a logical assumption.

bisket
10-21-2009, 07:59 PM
is exotic betting betting blind? ummm no!!

acorn54
11-14-2009, 06:37 PM
Betting exotics is not betting blindly; it is betting without all of the choices being displayed even though they are calculated.

Let’s suppose we have 10 horses in a race and we want to make all of the permutations (groupings) of the superfecta which is four horses arranged in an exact order.

However racetracks do not have the equipment to display all of the superfecta permutations (groupings) and to find the number of four-horse permutations (groupings) that we can make from the 10 horse without repeated numbers we write it symbolically (10_P_4).

This is an easy representation because there are 5040 such permutations (groupings) and as was said earlier, the racetrack doesn’t have the equipment to display them all out.

As the race field become larger, the number of permutations (groupings) becomes exponentially greater. For instance if we double the field size to 20 horses the number of permutations (groupings) for the superfecta become 116,280.

It should be noted that if we were just choosing combinations without respect to order the number of groupings would be reduced to 210.

Also it should be remembered that the exotic superfecta pool in this instance is totally separate from the WPS pools and because a horse is at x-odds in the win pool it is not necessarily true that it will follow the same x-odds in the exotic pool even though that is a logical assumption.


yes you don't have the possible payoffs so how do you know you are getting value in each particular race- you don't. you can say with such and such win odds the average payoff is such and such but in the race at hand you don't know if you are getting value.

CBedo
11-14-2009, 06:43 PM
yes you don't have the possible payoffs so how do you know you are getting value in each particular race- you don't. you can say with such and such win odds the average payoff is such and such but in the race at hand you don't know if you are getting value.Just like most things in racing, you don't have certainty, but you absolutely can make a probabilistic assessment.

Overlay
11-14-2009, 09:11 PM
Just like most things in racing, you don't have certainty, but you absolutely can make a probabilistic assessment.

I agree with your statement as regards estimating the true probability of a combination that you wish to bet. But if a similar estimate of the probable payoff for that combination is not available (which is generally the case with the more complicated exotics), and since the exotics have separate pools, where the betting on combinations does not necessarily correlate to the wagering patterns and probabilities for individual horses reflected by the win pool, there is nothing to compare your probability estimate against to determine whether value is present before you wager.

raybo
11-14-2009, 11:23 PM
If you can accurately estimate a probable payoff (or a minimum expected payout, in my case with superfectas) and you know your long term hit rate on such wagers, you should be able to wager to whatever your perception of value is. Mine is a minimum expected payout of $300 for a $12 average investment and my long term hit rate is 8%.

Setting a minimum acceptable payout is the key, or the determination of value in an individual race.

Track Collector
11-15-2009, 02:52 AM
yes you don't have the possible payoffs so how do you know you are getting value in each particular race- you don't. you can say with such and such win odds the average payoff is such and such but in the race at hand you don't know if you are getting value.

A database player can choose to determine value by looking at a large set of races vs. any one, individual race. Sometimes a winning ticket will return less than its' cost, but that will not stop a player who lacks the skill to assess "value" on individual races yet who is successful over the long run. Those who can assess value accurately on individual races (and I am not in that category) will benefit from even high positive ROI's. :)

Robert Fischer
11-15-2009, 06:03 AM
you should be able to tell on the plays that are worth playing in the first place that over time you will have an edge. you don't need complex stuff, just common sense and great insight and great wagering skill.

any specific instance can have an unexpected distribution in the "blind pools", but over time you will win if you are right.

JohnGalt1
11-15-2009, 09:16 AM
No one has mentioned that certain tracks, depending on the players who bet at that track (skill or recreational), can have totally different exotic pay outs from other tracks.

At CBY a few years ago, two favorites and a 15-1 paid $1500--the whole pool. That same result at SA might pay $150-200. And on some days, even at CBY with the same $1800 pool the pay out might even be less than $100.

I know it was the Breeder's Cup, but I was surprised that 3 favorites in the pick 4 paid $752, and before the Quality Road scratch was over a grand.

Gulchy
11-15-2009, 01:07 PM
The exacta pool is twice as large as the win pool making the exacta probables the most accurate gauge to the trifecta payoff. The exacta probables with the top two favorites in the first slot will give you all the info you need to estimate the trifecta payout,whether they win or not.
In an eight horse field there are seven possible payouts underneath the winner.
Using $1 increments here are the exacta payoffs under an even money shot,#8.
1)$4
2)$8
3)$10
4)$14 Median
5)$21
6)$26
7)$36
Assuming the favorite wins the race the trifecta payoffs can be estimated using any of the above exacta probables.
If the #1 runs 2nd the $4 exacta combination will be multiplied 6 times(6 possibilities remaining to complete the trifecta) to give you the median trifecta payoff...$24. The $1 trifecta with the #4 or #5 finishing 3rd will be right around $24,give or take $4. The probable tri if the 2 or 3 finishes 3rd will be less and it will pay more than $24 if the 6 or 7 finish 3rd.
On the extreme ends,(when the lowest odds horses run in the third position) the payout usually is 1/2 to 2/3 of the median. In this case the 8-2-3 combo is likely to pay $12-$16.In the same way you will be rewarded if the longest shot in the field runs third,usually 1 1/2-2 1/2 times the median,$36-$60.
You can use any probable exacta payoff to estimate the trifecta. The key is to multiply the payoff according to the field size and use the probables with the top two favorites to determine who is truly being played in the underneath positions.

fmolf
11-15-2009, 01:10 PM
No one has mentioned that certain tracks, depending on the players who bet at that track (skill or recreational), can have totally different exotic pay outs from other tracks.

At CBY a few years ago, two favorites and a 15-1 paid $1500--the whole pool. That same result at SA might pay $150-200. And on some days, even at CBY with the same $1800 pool the pay out might even be less than $100.

I know it was the Breeder's Cup, but I was surprised that 3 favorites in the pick 4 paid $752, and before the Quality Road scratch was over a grand.that is why i prefer to bet exactas because if a combo i like is overlaid i can bet more on it confidently i am getting value.With the tri you just never know it is all experience and feel.The favorite runs out of the exacta much more often than he runs out of the money as well.