10/17 Keeneland's 8th race winner Connie and Michael

[Imriledup]

Nice looking filly. Got bet hard from a 12-1 morning line down to a flat 5-2 and ran off like the good thing that she was.

Someone knew this filly was a monster and they collected big time. That 5-2 wasn't public money.

Nice score for someone who saw thru those pedestrian works at Churchill.

[tzipi]

Must've been owner or inside info. No public bettor would be able to see thru pedestrian workouts unless he was allowed at track to watch them and see what they were about,or would back a horse that much just on breeding not knowing horse's actual talent. Think someone knew or group got tipped off from inside.IMO.

But cool post on horse to follow up on and see what he's about.

[lamboguy]

the horse was touted as a good thing for about 3 hours on TVG

[Imriledup]

Must've been owner or inside info. No public bettor would be able to see thru pedestrian workouts unless he was allowed at track to watch them and see what they were about,or would back a horse that much just on breeding not knowing horse's actual talent. Think someone knew or group got tipped off from inside.IMO.

But cool post on horse to follow up on and see what he's about.

Exactly. This was not public money.

This horse won like a good thing, its hard to win as a firster from post 12 by open lengths being geared down at the end. Nice win for kids from Brooklyn.

[tzipi]

Yeah that is a good win from out there,finishing like that. As I said, I will def will follow this horse up.

[thespaah]

Nice looking filly. Got bet hard from a 12-1 morning line down to a flat 5-2 and ran off like the good thing that she was.

Someone knew this filly was a monster and they collected big time. That 5-2 wasn't public money.

Nice score for someone who saw thru those pedestrian works at Churchill.Horse was entered and made the program last Sat(10/10) but was a late scratch.

[Donnie]

Also McPeek and Kent teamed up with another FTS on Wed Race 6 named Fists of Rage....paid $21. Maybe someone connected the 2...?? Same type of workout pattern.

[Imriledup]

I wonder how much stock the public puts into the winning percentage of first time starter sires. This Roman Ruler was supposedly under 10 percent, not exactly a prolific first timer sire.

Someone must have told someone else "bet with two fists this is a beast"

[WinterTriangle]

El Brujo Race 7
Times in 5ths: :224 :46 1:101 1:254
Times in 100ths: :22.98 :46.08 1:10.20 1:25.95

Connie and Michael Race 8:
Times in 5ths: :223 :452 1:101 1:223
Times in 100ths: :22.69 :45.49 1:10.23 1:22.74

[cmoore]

Nice looking filly. Got bet hard from a 12-1 morning line down to a flat 5-2 and ran off like the good thing that she was.

Someone knew this filly was a monster and they collected big time. That 5-2 wasn't public money.

Nice score for someone who saw thru those pedestrian works at Churchill.

Originally Posted by cmoore
Keen race 8)..:1::7::10: to win and exacta box


2nd and 3rd...The 12 out of Roman Ruler wins first time out..:confused:

I wrote this above in the pick thread..Confused I was. LOL!!!

Your probably right about a very small group had thousands on this one..
What can you do??? Just be there to collect when there monster stumbles out of the gate or has a bad trip..Because chasing these runners where the ML is hammered down is a losing game in the long run imo..I never follow the money when betting first timers..

[cmoore]

Maybe the database guys can do a search for us..

First time starters
ML of 10-1 or higher
Final odds of 3-1 or less

What percentage of these win???

[Market Mover]

Maybe the database guys can do a search for us..

First time starters
ML of 10-1 or higher
Final odds of 3-1 or less

What percentage of these win???


Who sets the morning line at KEE as is this person a reliable, consistent sort?

[ManeMediaMogul]

Who sets the morning line at KEE as is this person a reliable, consistent sort?

Mike Battaglia is the morning line maker. He is one of the best in the business. His overlays at Keeneland are super plays.

BTW - Word was out all over the track on that horse so I think it was public money. I was touted on the beast three times, by three different people, during the afternoon.

[BillW]

BTW - Word was out all over the track on that horse so I think it was public money. I was touted on the beast three times, by three different people, during the afternoon.

Couple of times here also, and I'm sure by different people than MMM. This is the first time I remember being touted on a horse in maybe 100 times at Keeneland.

[Grits]

Anyone, and I seriously mean anyone, who takes a look at Keeneland's results of last weekend including everyday since, knows the meet that Ken McPeek is having--from stakes races to FTS-2 year olds.

Its fairly simple and straight forward, no one familiar with this meet or this trainer is leaving him off of their ticket. I wouldn't bother my time with an indepth search. He did close to equally as well at Gulfstream last winter, and at Saratoga also.

Do people still read chart results each day? They're of considerable benefit.

[Donnie]

Grits-
The McPeek Factor (last 20 days at KEE alone

Factor Plays Winners Win W+P ITM WROI PROI SROI $AvgM High I.V. 10/18/2009
Play 35 7 20% 34% 51% 1.34 1.13 1.18 $13.40 $28 2.17

[Donnie]

The McPeek Factor at SAR:

Factor Plays Winners Win W+P ITM WROI PROI SROI $AvgM High I.V. 10/18/2009
Play 57 4 7% 28% 39% 0.58 0.95 0.81 $16.60 $48 0.64

Not so much!

[Donnie]

If he groups the majority of his winners into a 10 day period like he did at SAR, he should quickly become a bet-against.....zig while the crowd is zagging!

[fmolf]

The McPeek Factor at SAR:

Factor Plays Winners Win W+P ITM WROI PROI SROI $AvgM High I.V. 10/18/2009
Play 57 4 7% 28% 39% 0.58 0.95 0.81 $16.60 $48 0.64

Not so much!
throw in rusty arnolds horses and youve got the two hottest trainers at keeneland!Remember that the ml is only that persons estimate of how the public will bet a horse.I do not use it because so many ml's are terrible.I suppose with firsters there is some value to it but any firster bet down to 5/2 in a race like that to me is an underlay.I would not bet a firster in a large field like that form the outside post at 5/2 ...i would pass the race.If you bet every firster, bet down to 5/2 in a 12 horse field i think your a big loser in the long run.

[Donnie]

Yup Rusty is HOT!! And a money-maker!

Factor Plays Winners Win W+P ITM WROI PROI SROI $AvgM High I.V. 10/18/2009
Play 13 4 31% 54% 62% 2.92 2.67 1.72 $19.00 $33 3.22

[rrbauer]

The horse opened at even money. That's a huge statement for a FTS at Keeneland's fall meet, particularly since it had not been working at Keeneland (although it was at Keeneland earlier in the year). Up the ladder.

[Donnie]

Cmoore--

Maybe the database guys can do a search for us..

First time starters
ML of 10-1 or higher
Final odds of 3-1 or less

What percentage of these win???
From HTR =

Factor Plays Winners Win% W+P ITM WROI PROI SROI $AvgM High I.V.
0.1-1.4 10 6 60% 70% 70% 1.23 1.35 1.05 $4.10 $5 5.16
1.5-3.4 104 26 25% 38% 47% 0.9 0.85 0.76 $7.20 $9 2.17
3.5-5.9 310 40 13% 24% 38% 0.73 0.66 0.72 $11.20 $14 1.14
6.0-7.9 345 40 12% 24% 34% 0.95 0.86 0.82 $16.30 $18 1.06
8.0-9.9 438 35 8% 16% 27% 0.81 0.67 0.71 $20.30 $22 0.73
10.0-14.9 1178 52 4% 11% 20% 0.58 0.6 0.61 $26.40 $32 0.41
15.0-19.9 1069 47 4% 10% 18% 0.81 0.66 0.63 $36.70 $42 0.41
20+ 5944 98 2% 4% 8% 0.55 0.5 0.43 $66.50 $161 0.16

The alignment gets skewed out at the 10/1 and higher range, but you can figure it out..... :)

This is across all tracks / all distances / all surfaces (an "all-burger" as Ken calls it!)

[Grits]

If he groups the majority of his winners into a 10 day period like he did at SAR, he should quickly become a bet-against.....zig while the crowd is zagging!

:ThmbUp: Thanks for posting Donnie! McPeek and Arnold, indeed, are rolling. Asmussen and Maker laying back more, maybe waiting on Churchill's real dirt.:lol:

I've seen a good amount of Arlington and Woodbine shippers doing well, which of course, stands to reason.

One who is garnering some fine prices, though not winning as much as ITM--Romans. I look at everything he enters.

[Donnie]

Looks like a true winner in Place and Show betting.... 5 for 12 so far... with a higher ROI for PLace than Win!

Factor Plays Winners Win W+P ITM WROI PROI SROI $AvgM High I.V. 10/18/2009
Play 12 2 17% 42% 42% 1.56 1.89 1.04 $18.70 $24 1.63