For the Synthetic bashers

[Moyers Pond]

While I prefer dirt, I like the synthetic too. How many dirt tracks can say this? Keeneland wagering up 10% so far. Not a knock on dirt. Just a defense of good synthetics like Keeneland.

http://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-racing/articles/53001/total-handle-at-keeneland-up-10-thus-far

[11cashcall]

Filthy Diatribe. ;)

[the_fat_man]

Let's compare; tracks running today:

WO-OSA-KEE vs. BEL/CRC/MED


Now, why in the world is ANYONE playing BEL or CRC, the take-them-off-the-turf champions of the world, or MED, the closet thing to a major bull ring in the country?

Just the way it is.

Some very nice racing at WO, KEE, and OSA today.

[Tom]

How many tracks run two weeks.
Of course they will do good.

[fmolf]

While I prefer dirt, I like the synthetic too. How many dirt tracks can say this? Keeneland wagering up 10% so far. Not a knock on dirt. Just a defense of good synthetics like Keeneland.

http://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-racing/articles/53001/total-handle-at-keeneland-up-10-thus-far
They have also opened their signal to more adw's so most of their increase if not all of it is attributable to off site and home wagering.Keeneland also runs right right before the breeders cup so interest is high around the country and its a very short meet as already posted ....fields are high because kentucky horseman have nowhere else to run their horses ....so no surprises here ....i still have not wagered one of my hard earned dollars on polycrap and i never will!I do not even bet the grass races from tracks that have installed poly!

[Moyers Pond]

They have also opened their signal to more adw's so most of their increase if not all of it is attributable to off site and home wagering.Keeneland also runs right right before the breeders cup so interest is high around the country and its a very short meet as already posted ....fields are high because kentucky horseman have nowhere else to run their horses ....so no surprises here ....i still have not wagered one of my hard earned dollars on polycrap and i never will!I do not even bet the grass races from tracks that have installed poly!

Yes, because the turf is somehow different because there is polytrack there. :D

I am sure Keeneland is devastated by your rational decision.

[SaratogaSteve]

Let's compare; tracks running today:

WO-OSA-KEE vs. BEL/CRC/MED


Now, why in the world is ANYONE playing BEL or CRC, the take-them-off-the-turf champions of the world, or MED, the closet thing to a major bull ring in the country?

Just the way it is.

Some very nice racing at WO, KEE, and OSA today.

I'm confused, races never come off the turf at WO and Keeneland?

Some of the biggest scores I've ever had have been in turf-to-dirt races.

[the_fat_man]

I'm confused, races never come off the turf at WO and Keeneland?

Some of the biggest scores I've ever had have been in turf-to-dirt races.

There's a difference:

1) CRC and NYRA seem to take a lot more races off than other tracks. And NYRA keeps you guessing by selectively taking races off the turf. After repeatedly handicapping races that were taken off, I just figured my time could be spent more productively ELSEWHERE. Especially since NYRA showed me that that could really give a shit about wasting my time.

2) When races come off the turf on tracks with POLY you get almost similar surfaces NOT a MUD event and, for the most part, horses that handle the turf also handle poly.

So, you don't end up with all those 3 and 4 horse fields that you do at NYRA, for example.

Hope this clears it up for you.:rolleyes:


Needless to say, NYRA and CRC have pretty much alienated me and will not be getting any of my money. At one time, NYRA was my primary focus and CRC was a primary late season focus. LUCKILY, there are other options so I don't need to deal with their silly shit.

[tucker6]

I never realized how many CA Racing commissioners were members here at PA.

[fmolf]

There's a difference:

1) CRC and NYRA seem to take a lot more races off than other tracks. And NYRA keeps you guessing by selectively taking races off the turf. After repeatedly handicapping races that were taken off, I just figured my time could be spent more productively ELSEWHERE. Especially since NYRA showed me that that could really give a shit about wasting my time.

2) When races come off the turf on tracks with POLY you get almost similar surfaces NOT a MUD event and, for the most part, horses that handle the turf also handle poly.

So, you don't end up with all those 3 and 4 horse fields that you do at NYRA, for example.

Hope this clears it up for you.:rolleyes:


Needless to say, NYRA and CRC have pretty much alienated me and will not be getting any of my money. At one time, NYRA was my primary focus and CRC was a primary late season focus. LUCKILY, there are other options so I don't need to deal with their silly shit.I don't even know why tracks that have poly even waste their money on maintaining their turf tracks! Its obvious to me now that they do not need them!....I do not feel compelled to bet on any race with a short field that has been taken of the turf.Noone is forced to bet these races......I love those large fields at santa anita..and i love giving woodbine all of that extra takeout they get oh yeah...great places to wager!Poly sucks, it has ruined racing, they will never get a dollar of my money.nor will i bet any turf race from a track with poly!Heres what Baffert says about the poly.."it speeds up slow horses and slows down fast horses" its a word for word quote.Poly is the lone reason why trainers do not ship into cal. any longer.....In europe only the lowest nags at each track race on the poly....basically the 5k claimers and md claimers!most trainers dislike it and it has not proven to be any safer than dirt!

[the_fat_man]

I don't even know why tracks that have poly even waste their money on maintaining their turf tracks! Its obvious to me now that they do not need them!....I do not feel compelled to bet on any race with a short field that has been taken of the turf.Noone is forced to bet these races......I love those large fields at santa anita..and i love giving woodbine all of that extra takeout they get oh yeah...great places to wager!Poly sucks, it has ruined racing, they will never get a dollar of my money.nor will i bet any turf race from a track with poly!Heres what Baffert says about the poly.."it speeds up slow horses and slows down fast horses" its a word for word quote.Poly is the lone reason why trainers do not ship into cal. any longer.....In europe only the lowest nags at each track race on the poly....basically the 5k claimers and md claimers!most trainers dislike it and it has not proven to be any safer than dirt!

We get it: YOU CAN'T WIN PLAYING POLY!!!

But since there are many others, include MOI, doing VERY WELL betting POLY, maybe you need to reconsider your approach rather than REPEATEDLY REMINDING US that you don't like POLY.

I basically laugh at all the POLY BASHING. Game changes and those who can't adapt eventually go away. Natural selection.

[Tom]

What tracks have you heard considering poly lately?
Dirt ain't going nowhere.

[cj]

We get it: YOU CAN'T WIN PLAYING POLY!!!



We get it: YOU SAY YOU CAN.

[Show Me the Wire]

For all the bashing of the pro ride surface, the Oak Tree meet has been very formfull and one would think the opposite..

[cj]

Keeneland has been pretty comical. I defy anyone, even TFM, to tell me some of those horses that have won were simply "the best horse".

It isn't too hard for SoCal to be formful when they run mostly maiden races and 6 horse max fields for the others.

[Show Me the Wire]

True. But 99.9% of the poly bashing is about So. Cal. Hvaen't seen much bashing about the Keeneland surface. As far as formfull Keeneland is being formfull in that the best horse doesn't win.

Keeneland has always been quirky dirt or no dirt.

So. Cal should be bashed for too many cheap MCL races.

[fmolf]

We get it: YOU CAN'T WIN PLAYING POLY!!!

But since there are many others, include MOI, doing VERY WELL betting POLY, maybe you need to reconsider your approach rather than REPEATEDLY REMINDING US that you don't like POLY.

I basically laugh at all the POLY BASHING. Game changes and those who can't adapt eventually go away. Natural selection.
I have no need to adapt.Their is enough real racing to keep me happy.I am glad that you are successful betting it but your not getting any of my money.If i wanted to put the time in and study the tracks with the poly their is no doubt in my mind i could be successful.I choose not too.Continued good luck to you.

[the_fat_man]

Keeneland has been pretty comical. I defy anyone, even TFM, to tell me some of those horses that have won were simply "the best horse".



I spot play KEE. Haven't had the time to do the charts for all the tracks that these horses are coming from. So, I can't comment on this.

[SaratogaSteve]

I basically laugh at all the POLY BASHING. Game changes and those who can't adapt eventually go away. Natural selection.


I laugh at the NYRA bashing. Dirt ain't going away, and neither is the turf-to-dirt angle. Now, about those who can't adapt...

[the_fat_man]

I laugh at the NYRA bashing. Dirt ain't going away, and neither is the turf-to-dirt angle. Now, about those who can't adapt...

Be sure to let us know when the next one comes up. I know you've put out a bunch of winners for all to see, so the next can't be too far away. I'll be looking for it.

[gm10]

While I prefer dirt, I like the synthetic too. How many dirt tracks can say this? Keeneland wagering up 10% so far. Not a knock on dirt. Just a defense of good synthetics like Keeneland.

http://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-racing/articles/53001/total-handle-at-keeneland-up-10-thus-far

I'm just not betting Belmont at the moment. Every day is a slopfest.
Keeneland, Oaktree, Turf Paradise and Woodbine form are the easiest to read imo. The form holds up well, and those tracks are pretty fair and consistent.

[fmolf]

I'm just not betting Belmont at the moment. Every day is a slopfest.
Keeneland, Oaktree, Turf Paradise and Woodbine form are the easiest to read imo. The form holds up well, and those tracks are pretty fair and consistent.
the only place i see form holding is at oak tree......

[gm10]

the only place i see form holding is at oak tree......

Really? I find Keeneland very formful at the moment. Turf Paradise is almost always pretty formful because the surface is very consistent, and the horse/jockey/trainer populations are closed sets.

[CBedo]

Oaktree has been somewhat formful to me, but not much value.

Keeneland has been very formful in my opinion. Yes, there always seems to be one race, that just make no sense, but overall, I think the winners have been gettable.

[DanG]

Really? I find Keeneland very formful at the moment.
I agree GM10 for the first time in my life and that includes the dirt highway they used to have.

[gm10]

Probably pushing my luck here but what do you think of Oak Tree this year? It looks more like a dirt track this year. Speed holds up fairly well and even the late runners need to be close enough to the pace.

[Java Gold@TFT]

True. But 99.9% of the poly bashing is about So. Cal. Hvaen't seen much bashing about the Keeneland surface. As far as formfull Keeneland is being formfull in that the best horse doesn't win.

Keeneland has always been quirky dirt or no dirt.

So. Cal should be bashed for too many cheap MCL races.
The thing about bashing So Cal poly is two fold. One they all put in different surfaces. There is no consistencey from one track to the next. In a 3-4 month period you had to figure out which horses would do better at Hollywood, then Del Mar, then dirt for a few weeks, then Sanata Anita. That's one circuit with 4 very distinct surfaces (besides grass). Part two is that they tried to sell this junk as "all weather". What the hell do tracks in San Diego and Los Angeles need to be "all weather" for? Kee, Arl, Wo, PID all could use all weather surfaces. A lot of people seem to ignore that one of the first "all weather" tracks is the inner dirt course at Aqueduct. That is dirt and specifically designed to run as many races as possibly during the Winter without losing time due to major snowstorms and extreme freezing temperatures. It's not perfect as far as never having a muddy track but they don't lose days just becasue of the surface.

And I guess the other part of the latter argument is that the temperature swings from morning to afternoon in So Cal make for amazing track condition swings that even the trainers can't figure out. At least in the Fall meet at Keeneland or Woodbine the temperature/humidity swings from 6AM to 4PM are so much smaller that they appear to play more closely from day to day without worrying about the maintenence crews.

[David-LV]

Can anybody suggest a title in advance for a thread when they rip all these Calif. synthetic garbage tracks out, which is going to happen in the near future.

The idiots running these tracks may have started to believe that it is not the economy, but the synthetic junk that was mandated by the recanting Mr. Shapiro.

Just thinking out loud.

_______
David-LV

[illinoisbred]

Can anybody suggest a title in advance for a thread when they rip all these Calif. synthetic garbage tracks out, which is going to happen in the near future.

The idiots running these tracks may have started to believe that it is not the economy, but the synthetic junk that was mandated by the recanting Mr. Shapiro.

Just thinking out loud.

_______
David-LV
What goes down must come up

[Tom]

What goes down must come up:lol: Perfect!

[Show Me the Wire]

The thing about bashing So Cal poly is two fold. One they all put in different surfaces. There is no consistencey from one track to the next. In a 3-4 month period you had to figure out which horses would do better at Hollywood, then Del Mar, then dirt for a few weeks, then Sanata Anita. That's one circuit with 4 very distinct surfaces (besides grass). Part two is that they tried to sell this junk as "all weather". What the hell do tracks in San Diego and Los Angeles need to be "all weather" for? Kee, Arl, Wo, PID all could use all weather surfaces. A lot of people seem to ignore that one of the first "all weather" tracks is the inner dirt course at Aqueduct. That is dirt and specifically designed to run as many races as possibly during the Winter without losing time due to major snowstorms and extreme freezing temperatures. It's not perfect as far as never having a muddy track but they don't lose days just becasue of the surface.

And I guess the other part of the latter argument is that the temperature swings from morning to afternoon in So Cal make for amazing track condition swings that even the trainers can't figure out. At least in the Fall meet at Keeneland or Woodbine the temperature/humidity swings from 6AM to 4PM are so much smaller that they appear to play more closely from day to day without worrying about the maintenence crews.

Every circuit has its differences. All dirt tracks do not play equally in the same circuit. Each track has a different mixture of loom, sand, etc. If you follow the circuit the difference in surfaces is no problem. The oak Tree meet is very formfull, in light of the fact that many of these horses ran on dirt at FPX with its bull ring configuration. How do you explain that?

All weather dirt is harsh and too hard on the horses' little feet. Too many chemicals, including anti-freeze is used to prevent the dirt from freezing. Bad stuff.

[Robert Goren]

What tracks have you heard considering poly lately?
Dirt ain't going nowhere.Show me a dirt track that is considering doing anything other that adding slots. All the decent tracks have already gone to POLY. NY tracks and CD have not spend a dime on their facilities in ages. There is not good dirt track out there, at least not anything close to being considered big time racing. It is just plain sad that a lot betters want DIRT and the DIRT tracks say "screw you".

[DeanT]

All dirt tracks do not play equally in the same circuit. Each track has a different mixture of loom, sand, etc.
Fair point. The Mountain can change. I think I have seen more swings there than at any poly I play. I still like it, though. To me you can gain a bit of an edge if you know what part was playing best. Hawthorne is not dissimilar. IN fact I think they made a point last year to put more dirt down, or a slightly different composition and for the meet late pace ruled, not unlike it does quite a bit at Turfway.

As for circuits, So cal is not the only one that moves from different tracks to different tracks, imo. KEE would play different to Turfway and CD on the KY circuit whether they are/were dirt, poly or marshmallow. I never had a problem with it one way or the other. I would just try to figure out what works.

I find a good deal of KEE winners come from trainer intent for the meet, and I think I have a decent idea of what's what with that, however I am sometimes stumped - I do not blame that on a track surface there, I blame that on my lack of handicapping skill and work ethic. Alternatively GPX is a gorgeous meet with trainer intent as well, and I can not make hide nor hair of it, despite it running on dirt. I think the last time I won at GPX was about 1990 when I looked at a simo screen and bet WP. The horse paid $4.40 and that was my only bet of the meet. I dont want them to blow up the surface or anything, I just think I have to be a better handicapper there.

[andymays]

There's always the "slowly but surely the truth about synthetic surfaces" thread. They tell me it's a good read and addresses all the Q and A. At least that's what they tell me!

http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/showthread.php?t=59163

[andymays]

There's always the "slowly but surely the truth about synthetic surfaces" thread. They tell me it's a good read and addresses all the Q and A. At least that's what they tell me!

http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/showthread.php?t=59163


Since this is my number one issue I may as well tell everyone that should Santa Anita stay with synthetic next meet I will have lost my war. That will be it for me. Although I have been told that it's a done deal I won't believe it till I see it.

I really can't understand anyone who has handicapped races and watched races for decades. Watch a race on synthetic and watch the Horses struggle over it. Very few run to their full potential over it. It is my belief that the Horsplayers who like it handicap differently than me and it appears that for the most part they let the computer do most of the handicapping for them. I could be wrong on that but that's the only thing I can figure.


Good Luck to All! Even the synthetic lovers!

[FenceBored]

Show me a dirt track that is considering doing anything other that adding slots. All the decent tracks have already gone to POLY. NY tracks and CD have not spend a dime on their facilities in ages. There is not good dirt track out there, at least not anything close to being considered big time racing. It is just plain sad that a lot betters want DIRT and the DIRT tracks say "screw you".

Churchill Downs racetrack remains the flagship operation of Churchill Downs Incorporated, and recently underwent the most significant series of ambitious and comprehensive renovations in the history of the track. In July 2002, Churchill Downs began Phase I of a $121 million renovation. The Phase I project provided 64 luxury suites and spacious meeting areas built atop the track’s existing grandstand, with huge balconies providing stunning views of the Twin Spires. Phase I was completed for the opening of the 2003 Fall Meet. Phase II began in July 2003 with the demolition of an 800-foot expanse of the clubhouse, leveled to make way for new construction. The $95 million Phase II project took nearly two years to complete and included an expanded Turf Club, 15 luxury suites, new group sales areas, premium outdoor third-floor boxes, indoor box seats, a new media center and television production compound, new dining and entertainment areas, a new grand entrance at Gate 17 leading to the track’s integrated simulcast wagering areas, a new central kitchen, and satellite kitchen facilities. The construction provided an additional 404,000 square feet and increased the permanent seating capacity to approximately 52,000.
-- http://www.churchilldowns.com/about/history
More than $121 million in the past ten years on facilities upgrades is "not spend[ing] a dime on their facilities in ages?" Hey, you might not like what they did, many people don't, but they spent a fair amount doing it.

[Valuist]

Somebody said earlier in the thread that Belmont and Calder were always in a hurry to take races off grass? Keeneland NEVER used to take races off grass....UNTIL they put the Polycrap in. Now it seems like they can't wait to take them off grass....

[11cashcall]

We get it: YOU CAN'T WIN PLAYING POLY!!!

But since there are many others, include MOI, doing VERY WELL betting POLY, maybe you need to reconsider your approach rather than REPEATEDLY REMINDING US that you don't like POLY.

I basically laugh at all the POLY BASHING. Game changes and those who can't adapt eventually go away. Natural selection.


Lets not forget the trainers & owners who cannot make the transition either then do & say everything except summon the Pope!.(For the record i still play dirt & turf to MY convenience)

Come on fella's jump into the $pool$. Test the water's for yourself....yeah just might like it. :)

[illinoisbred]

Did Santa Anita ever reach a settlement regarding the cushion track fiasco during their 2007 winter meet? Did cushion track pay for the pro-ride installation?

[andymays]

http://www.insidesocal.com/horseracing/2009/10/this-could-be-final-breeders-c.html

Excerpt:

By Art Wilson on October 19, 2009 7:00 AM | Permalink | ShareThis


In my opinion, racing fans can expect two and maybe three changes to the current Breeders' Cup format after this year's 26th running on Nov. 6-7 during Santa Anita's Oak Tree meet.

* This will be the final Breeders' Cup run over a synthetic race track. The backlash Breeders' Cup officials have felt over holding the event at Santa Anita and its synthetic Pro-Ride surface for an unprecedented second consecutive year -- not to mention the number of horsemen who continue to jump off the artificial surface bandwagon by the day -- are too strong for event organizers to ignore.

[illinoisbred]

Show me a dirt track that is considering doing anything other that adding slots. All the decent tracks have already gone to POLY. NY tracks and CD have not spend a dime on their facilities in ages. There is not good dirt track out there, at least not anything close to being considered big time racing. It is just plain sad that a lot betters want DIRT and the DIRT tracks say "screw you".
The dirt surface at Fair Grounds is considered to be 1 of the best. Many top midwestern outfits claim their stock leaves there fitter than when they arrived. Many good words regarding Tampa Bay's dirt surface too.

[Show Me the Wire]

Since this is my number one issue I may as well tell everyone that should Santa Anita stay with synthetic next meet I will have lost my war. That will be it for me. Although I have been told that it's a done deal I won't believe it till I see it.

I really can't understand anyone who has handicapped races and watched races for decades. Watch a race on synthetic and watch the Horses struggle over it. Very few run to their full potential over it. It is my belief that the Horsplayers who like it handicap differently than me and it appears that for the most part they let the computer do most of the handicapping for them. I could be wrong on that but that's the only thing I can figure.


Good Luck to All! Even the synthetic lovers!

Can you honestly say that Oak Tree is not formfull? I don't use a computer, just the DRF. If you are surprised which horses are winning, you really need to adjust your handicapping.

I say the above without any malice, but with the impression you are so set against AWS, that any result whether formfull or not is indiciphrable. Sounds more like a self fulfilling prophecy issue, than a handicapping issue.

[andymays]

Can you honestly say that Oak Tree is not formfull? I don't use a computer, just the DRF. If you are surprised which horses are winning, you really need to adjust your handicapping.

I say the above without any malice, but with the impression you are so set against AWS, that any result whether formfull or not is indiciphrable. Sounds more like a self fulfilling prophecy issue, than a handicapping issue.


Yesterday and Saturday I got knocked out of P3's, 4's, 5's, all in the 6th race (on Saturday it was the 7th race) where I had used 4 horses. The same thing happened on Saturday. The same thing happens to me all the time since they went synthetic. When you're using the favorite and 3 or 4 other horses in a 8 horse field you would think you would hit them at a 50% or better rate. Not me!

The difference for me when Santa Anita was dirt is like night and day and my Taxes are proof. On synthetic you have to spread and on dirt I rarely spread and if I did it was not anywhere close to what I have to do now and still not hit. Spreading and having something for a buck that pays 10k is not really handicapping it's a casino game. Handicapping is betting with confidence and having something 10,20, or 30 times. That is not possible on synthetics at least for me or anyone I know.

[Show Me the Wire]

Yes, Panda was an upset. An upset caused by poor racing luck for Zohan. Zohan was bottled up and still almost won on the wire. Nothing to do with the pro-ride surface.

Also, the 7th race on Saturday had nothing to do with the surface. The fav was not my cup of tea, Owner's Manual being a class dropper from Frankel. IMO it was a choas race, if you throw out Frankel's horse, which was easy to do.

I'll stand by my comment about your dislike of AWS is influencing your judgment. Especially with your specific reference to race Panda's win yesterday, which was due to racing luck.

[andymays]

Yes, Panda was an upset. An upset caused by poor racing luck for Zohan. Zohan was bottled up and still almost won on the wire. Nothing to do with the pro-ride surface.

Also, the 7th race on Saturday had nothing to do with the surface. The fav was not my cup of tea, Owner's Manual being a class dropper from Frankel. IMO it was a choas race, if you throw out Frankel's horse, which was easy to do.

I'll stand by my comment about your dislike of AWS is influencing your judgment. Especially with your specific reference to race Panda's win yesterday, which was due to racing luck.


My problem is that the early pace is almost never what it seems to be. The early pace is usually slow on synthetics and horses are running up on heels with the Jocks having the brakes on. You never know what the Jockeys will do because style changes are easier on synthetic.

[gm10]

Show me a dirt track that is considering doing anything other that adding slots. All the decent tracks have already gone to POLY. NY tracks and CD have not spend a dime on their facilities in ages. There is not good dirt track out there, at least not anything close to being considered big time racing. It is just plain sad that a lot betters want DIRT and the DIRT tracks say "screw you".

Saratoga is the one good dirt track that I can think of.
Most people would realize that synthetic surfaces are actually more fair and consistent - if only they could see past the hysteria surrounding their introduction.

They aren't unsafe. They certainly aren't less consistent that dirt surfaces. They are formful. They produce more exciting finishes. They don't require you to completely redo your handicapping if it starts raining. I have no doubt that they are here to stay - so better start swimming or you might sink like a stone.

[Show Me the Wire]

andymays:

If you know this, then why handicap pace. Position is more important.

Determine if your contender has enough ability to put in a late run and if your contender will be in position to contend for the lead or front from the 3/8 pole, 1/4 pole, 1/8 pole.

[andymays]

If you know this, then why handicap pace. Position is more important.

Determine if your contender has enough ability to put in a late run and if your contender will be in position to contend for the lead or front from the 3/8 pole, 1/4 pole, 1/8 pole.


The only way Panda wins is if the favorite and one other break slow or the Jockey takes back. Then the eight gets in a ton of trouble.

My point is that on synthetic I can't bet with confidence and make a score. It comes down to having things for a buck and hoping the bet pays a big price. That doesn't work for me at all. It never did work for me.

[gm10]

http://www.insidesocal.com/horseracing/2009/10/this-could-be-final-breeders-c.html

Excerpt:

By Art Wilson on October 19, 2009 7:00 AM | Permalink | ShareThis


In my opinion, racing fans can expect two and maybe three changes to the current Breeders' Cup format after this year's 26th running on Nov. 6-7 during Santa Anita's Oak Tree meet.

* This will be the final Breeders' Cup run over a synthetic race track. The backlash Breeders' Cup officials have felt over holding the event at Santa Anita and its synthetic Pro-Ride surface for an unprecedented second consecutive year -- not to mention the number of horsemen who continue to jump off the artificial surface bandwagon by the day -- are too strong for event organizers to ignore.

I honestly don't understand some people. Why does this Mr. Wilson draw the conclusions that he draws? Everything that Mr. Avioli says, points to the BC organisation being happy enough with recent editions, despite very difficult conditions both years. Unless there is a massive loss this year, or none of the new races get graded, the two day format is here to stay imo.

[Show Me the Wire]

The only way Panda wins is if the favorite and one other break slow or the Jockey takes back. Then the eight gets in a ton of trouble.

My point is that on synthetic I can't bet with confidence and make a score. It comes down to having things for a buck and hoping the bet pays a big price. That doesn't work for me at all. It never did work for me.


Not true because of the pro-ride. Lots of horses miss the break on dirt and the expected speed duels don't develop. Also, Zohan's trouble as I pointed out already is not limited to AWS.

Look both the Favorite and Zohan were in position to win the race. The fav was not good enough and probably will be a professional maiden and Zohan was unlucky.

The result had nothing to do with pro-Ride's influence. However, if you want to believe Panda's win was due to the surface, I can't change your mind.

[fmolf]

I think the trainers have spoken the loudest most seem reluctant to ship to tracks with poly unless they are based in the area.Large purses excepted i think that is the most telling thing.Most of what i have been hearing is that poly is rougher on horses than dirt for racing and regular training.According to one trainer i believe Tom Amoss on tvg said that a horses foot does not give when it hits the poly that their is no slide to his hoof at all when he grips the track making it harder on his legs

p.s......most professional athletes would rather play on real grass than artificial......oh if only horses could talk! :D

[andymays]

Not true because of the pro-ride. Lots of horses miss the break on dirt and the expected speed duels don't develop. Also, Zohan's trouble as I pointed out already is not limited to AWS.

Look both the Favorite and Zohan were in position to win the race. The fav was not good enough and probably will be a professional maiden and Zohan was unlucky.

The result had nothing to do with pro-Ride's influence. However, if you want to believe Panda's win was due to the surface, I can't change your mind.


All I can tell you is that my numbers on dirt at Santa Anita are incredibly good and my numbers on Pro Ride at Santa Anita are incredibly bad. I've been doing this for a long time with some success so it's not like I just took it up a few years ago.

[Tom]

p.s......most professional athletes would rather play on real grass than artificial......oh if only horses could talk! :D

I am sure THEY would prefer baseball and football were played on real grass, too! :D

[CBedo]

I am sure THEY would prefer baseball and football were played on real grass, too! :DDefinitely not a scientific sample, but a number of professional and college football players I have talked to actually prefer the fake stuff. The guys I talked to like the newer Field Turf fields.

[Show Me the Wire]

All I can tell you is that my numbers on dirt at Santa Anita are incredibly good and my numbers on Pro Ride at Santa Anita are incredibly bad. I've been doing this for a long time with some success so it's not like I just took it up a few years ago.

I do not doubt you. All I am saying is the meet is formfull. I also, said if you may need to adjust your numbers if you are not selecting the correct contenders and winners.

In the two examples you gave, one result happened due to poor racing luck and the other resulted from a chaos race. Neither result happened solely due to the surface.

You admitted early pace is not important. So why focus on it or make it a important part of your handicpping. Just because you have been doing something for a long time does not justify continuing the same behavior.

Actually, I am not seeing much difference in my numerical evaluation, but pace is not very important to me, on the whole.

[the_fat_man]

My problem is that the early pace is almost never what it seems to be. The early pace is usually slow on synthetics and horses are running up on heels with the Jocks having the brakes on. You never know what the Jockeys will do because style changes are easier on synthetic.

Here we have the root of the issue for the POLY HATERS.

Those accustomed to SPEED BIASED DIRT TRACKS just can't come to grips with having to handle FAIR racing. There's more to racing than betting the speed. More to it than just looking at numbers, seeing who's fastest early and then just betting that horse. Well, at least that's the case when it comes to POLY. What I like about POLY is that the BEST horse has a chance in every race, no matter what the PACE. You can't say that about DIRT and you certainly couldn't say it about KEE and CALI, when they had those speed biased tracks.

The POLY HATERS can write whatever they want but it all comes down to not being able to handle the 'extra' that's necessary to win on these surfaces.

Almost forever the 'truism' was that SPEED usually wins. Not any more. The game is a bit more complicated than that on POLY.

[46zilzal]

Definitely not a scientific sample, but a number of professional and college football players I have talked to actually prefer the fake stuff. The guys I talked to like the newer Field Turf fields.
Really. The 49er's I talked to hated them as they had to cover themselves with Iodine as that surface teamed with bacteria.

[46zilzal]

Those accustomed to SPEED BIASED DIRT TRACKS just can't come to grips with having to handle FAIR racing. There's more to racing than betting the speed. More to it than just looking at numbers, seeing who's fastest early and then just betting that horse. Well, at least that's the case when it comes to POLY. What I like about POLY is that the BEST horse has a chance in every race, no matter what the PACE.

The POLY HATERS can write whatever they want but it all comes down to not being able to handle the 'extra' that's necessary to win on these surfaces.

Almost forever the 'truism' was that SPEED usually wins. Not any more. The game is a bit more complicated than that on POLY.
Speed wins a lot on Poly track Just come to Toronto and watch them

[cj]

Here we have the root of the issue for the POLY HATERS.

Those accustomed to SPEED BIASED DIRT TRACKS just can't come to grips with having to handle FAIR racing.

I would argue that we have fair racing on dirt tracks and CLOSER BIASED RUBBER TRACKS. Speed shouldn't be a disadvantage.

[cj]

Speed wins a lot on Poly track Just come to Toronto and watch them

Nowhere near as much as it used to...the longer the race the less speed wins. Should I post the chart again comparing dirt to rubber? You want by position, or by time?

[46zilzal]

I would argue that we have fair racing on dirt tracks and CLOSER BIASED RUBBER TRACKS. Speed shouldn't be a disadvantage.
exactly

[Imriledup]

I would argue that we have fair racing on dirt tracks and CLOSER BIASED RUBBER TRACKS. Speed shouldn't be a disadvantage.

I disagree. I think everyone benefits if speed dies.

Most short priced horses are speed horses, if they're dying, it gives players a shot to make nice scores, gives tracks more opportunity to get carryovers.

[46zilzal]

I disagree. I think everyone benefits if speed dies.

Most short priced horses are speed horses, if they're dying, it gives players a shot to make nice scores, gives tracks more opportunity to get carryovers.
I get double digit speed horses all the time...the ones others think will stop. They are found more often at some tracks than others but are, until the synthocrap came around, there at every dirt venue in North America to one degree or another

[Imriledup]

I get double digit speed horses all the time...the ones others think will stop. They are found more often at some tracks than others but are, until the synthocrap came around, there at every dirt venue in North America to one degree or another

MY method of capping is different. I look for a bunch of speeds to kill each other off and i bet the closer. It helps if the track is biased towards closers to begin with.

[illinoisbred]

I do not doubt you. All I am saying is the meet is formfull. I also, said if you may need to adjust your numbers if you are not selecting the correct contenders and winners.

In the two examples you gave, one result happened due to poor racing luck and the other resulted from a chaos race. Neither result happened solely due to the surface.

You admitted early pace is not important. So why focus on it or make it a important part of your handicpping. Just because you have been doing something for a long time does not justify continuing the same behavior.

Actually, I am not seeing much difference in my numerical evaluation, but pace is not very important to me, on the whole.
I hate to jump on the bandwagon but I believe Show Me The Wire is correct in his assessment. I too was very pace-oriented the 1st 2 seasons at Arlington and my results were miserable. This season I abondoned my pace figures[still made them though] and used final figures in a condition analysis or form cycle manner. My results were much better and in fact generated a profit and thats from playing every day. There still are some unanswered questions-form does seem more fleeting on polytrack,and many horses that take to polytrack do seem to be rested a couple months or more after 3-4 hard-fought races. I do believe what I've heard about body soreness and hind-quarter problems associated with polytrack. All said, I no longer look forward to next season at Arlington with trepidation.

[fmolf]

I would argue that we have fair racing on dirt tracks and CLOSER BIASED RUBBER TRACKS. Speed shouldn't be a disadvantage.
Finally some sanity to this discussion....well said! :ThmbUp:

[fmolf]

If all the tracks with dirt courses installed artificial field turf racecourses that would solve the problem of having to take races off the grass.Plastic grass is impervious to water and would not get soggy!

[46zilzal]

If all the tracks with dirt courses installed artificial field turf racecourses that would solve the problem of having to take races off the grass.Plastic grass is impervious to water and would not get soggy!

I talked recently to a retired jock who rode on the old tartan track at Calder.

He told me: "We had one mantra: NEVER fall off as you would lose a bunch of skin if you did."

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tropical_Park_Race_Track

[illinoisbred]

If all the tracks with dirt courses installed artificial field turf racecourses that would solve the problem of having to take races off the grass.Plastic grass is impervious to water and would not get soggy!
Didn't Calder originally have something similar to that with their Tartan track? The asphalt base would sure make that speed-favoring.

[46zilzal]

Didn't Calder originally have something similar to that with their Tartan track? The asphalt base would sure make that speed-favoring.
post 68?

[illinoisbred]

post 68?
We thought the same thing at the same time.

[46zilzal]

Interesting slow motion evaluation of hoof contact on differing surfaces.
http://hoofcare.blogspot.com/2009/10/video-breeders-cup-prompts-instrumented.html

[macdiarmida]

andymays wrote:
Yesterday and Saturday I got knocked out of P3's, 4's, 5's, all in the 6th race (on Saturday it was the 7th race) where I had used 4 horses.Wondering why are you still playing CA tracks if they are so changed against the way you play? It's been like two years since All Weather/plastic has been installed . . .

And was there a sharp demarcation of wins for you at exactly the point of track conversion or could it possibly have coincided with the introduction of ADW and rebate whales entering the picture earlier? I saw the latter change handicapping and play but not the former.

[andymays]

Interesting slow motion evaluation of hoof contact on differing surfaces.
http://hoofcare.blogspot.com/2009/10/video-breeders-cup-prompts-instrumented.html

Who sponsored the study? Who paid for the study?

Are the gonna do the study on a new synthetic surface or a two or three year old synthetic surface like Del Mar and Arlington?

Sounds like the synthetic boys from Keenland and California are doing the study. Dr Rick Arthur of the CHRB actually works for Cal Davis.

Does anyone remember the Tobacco companies doing studies on smoking?


Guess how the study will come out? It's all good right? :lol:

[andymays]

Wondering why are you still playing CA tracks if they are so changed against the way you play? It's been like two years since All Weather/plastic has been installed . . .

And was there a sharp demarcation of wins for you at exactly the point of track conversion or could it possibly have coincided with the introduction of ADW and rebate whales entering the picture earlier? I saw the latter change handicapping and play but not the former.


In 2007 I had well over 100k in signups (I only sign for myself) and 95% of that was by April (from Hollywood on it was all synthetic). In all of 2008 I had a little over 14k in signups. This year I'm probably at 20k. It's not a close call at all.

I play them because they are my home tracks.

[macdiarmida]

andymays wrote:
I play them because they are my home tracks.
Not to be disrepectful, but what's that got to do with anything? Just a thought that off 2007 signups alone you could take a year off and without playing, study and get comfortable with another circuit (not just one track) simo'd into CA.

[CincyHorseplayer]

Not to be disrepectful, but what's that got to do with anything? Just a thought that off 2007 signups alone you could take a year off and without playing, study and get comfortable with another circuit (not just one track) simo'd into CA.

I agree.If my circuit pulled the profitable rug out from under my feet and I couldn't adjust I'd abandon it altogether.

Last year because of ADW issues on my circuit,a general hatred of winter racing,and a lot of Turway's poly-races being a joke to handicap and watch,I just tuned it all out.I played Fair Grounds,Tampa Bay Downs,and Gulfstream last winter and enjoyed the hell out of it for the most part,even though I knew nothing about the tracks or trainers coming in.Now I'll never go back to winter racing(up north) or poly again.I have live racing from April to September here in Cincy and follow some pretty solid tracks in the winter.I love it.

[andymays]

Not to be disrepectful, but what's that got to do with anything? Just a thought that off 2007 signups alone you could take a year off and without playing, study and get comfortable with another circuit (not just one track) simo'd into CA.


I think the difference in my bottom line makes my point about my dislike for synthetic surfaces. If you're not familiar with my postings you can check out my thread called "slowly but surely the truth about synthetic surfaces"!

http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/showthread.php?t=59163&highlight=slowly+surely

[Tom]

Who sponsored the study? Who paid for the study?

Are the gonna do the study on a new synthetic surface or a two or three year old synthetic surface like Del Mar and Arlington?

Sounds like the synthetic boys from Keenland and California are doing the study. Dr Rick Arthur of the CHRB actually works for Cal Davis.

Does anyone remember the Tobacco companies doing studies on smoking?


Guess how the study will come out? It's all good right? :lol:


That is a ridiculous post! There were NO conclusions made, just actual data shown for the three surfaces. You honestly think someone dummied the data? You think the horse was "in on it?"

The key to winning of poly is to know how the hell to handicap it. Unlike some opinions here, pace is much more than picking an early horse.

[andymays]

That is a ridiculous post! There were NO conclusions made, just actual data shown for the three surfaces. You honestly think someone dummied the data? You think the horse was "in on it?"

The key to winning of poly is to know how the hell to handicap it. Unlike some opinions here, pace is much more than picking an early horse.

When it comes to people like Rick Arthur and some of the other synthetic advocates I do not trust what they say. I do not trust that they would conduct a fair an unbiased study and I would never give them the benefit of the doubt in any way. I base my opinion from following the goings on in California over the last few years.


Regarding handicapping synthetic surfaces:

For example during the the last Santa Anita meet they had a nearly 50% carryover rate. That is unheard of since the Pick 6 started several years ago. Who the hell knows how to handicap it when the pick 6 carries over half of the time?


The key to winning on any surface is knowing how the hell to handicap it, is it not?

[Tom]

And where did you get anything in the video that they said? They showed three views of horses hoofs hitting the surface. You are far to paranoid.

[andymays]

And where did you get anything in the video that they said? They showed three views of horses hoofs hitting the surface. You are far to paranoid.


We have dueling threads here. There is a difference between a new synthetic surface and a three year old synthetic surface like Del Mar or Arlington. They lose their cushion for several reasons and I will outline them in the other thread.

Any study that helps improve racing is good. I'm not convinced that the study is impartial and I doubt that it is given some of the participants.

[castaway01]

Somebody said earlier in the thread that Belmont and Calder were always in a hurry to take races off grass? Keeneland NEVER used to take races off grass....UNTIL they put the Polycrap in. Now it seems like they can't wait to take them off grass....

That's true---they came off the grass only three times in TWENTY YEARS before the poly. Now they know the trainers won't scratch if they come off, so they do it.

[WinterTriangle]

Every circuit has its differences. All dirt tracks do not play equally in the same circuit.

Which many are painfully aware of first 3-4 weeks at Oaklawn meet. :) When track is drying out and/or when muddy like quicksand, plays very different than NY dirt.

There is not good dirt track out there

Why Zenyatta, Rachel Alexander, Lava Man, Smarty Jones, Curlin, Summer Bird, et. al, race at Oaklawn...horrible place. :)

[11cashcall]

You honestly think someone dummied the data? You think the horse was "in on it?"



On man,once the image got into my head...... :lol:

[macdiarmida]

Originally posted by andymays
I think the difference in my bottom line makes my point about my dislike for synthetic surfaces.Then by still playing "home track", your bottom line seems not to be very important to you. Odd IMO, but to each his own.

So you expect them to change back to dirt? And immediately, like in 2010? With the millions they save over dirt track maintenance? For one, tractor drivers are union Teamsters, and for maintaining a dirt track, a crew of them are out there in daylight hours (2 shifts, at least), every day (think overtime). With handle down this year and maybe even the next 2 years, can SA just go to the infield and dig up the renovation money in the tin can they buried there? Nobody's loaning money now, especially to a business making less than previous years.

CincyHorseplayer showed flexibility and some guts. And he can get turf racing in the winter. :)

[andymays]

Then by still playing "home track", your bottom line seems not to be very important to you. Odd IMO, but to each his own.

So you expect them to change back to dirt? And immediately, like in 2010? With the millions they save over dirt track maintenance? For one, tractor drivers are union Teamsters, and for maintaining a dirt track, a crew of them are out there in daylight hours (2 shifts, at least), every day (think overtime). With handle down this year and maybe even the next 2 years, can SA just go to the infield and dig up the renovation money in the tin can they buried there? Nobody's loaning money now, especially to a business making less than previous years.

CincyHorseplayer showed flexibility and some guts. And he can get turf racing in the winter. :)



Sythetic surfaces are more expensive to maintain!

They were supposed to be less expensive to maintain, have less biases, increase field size, and be much much safer. :rolleyes:

[WinterTriangle]

I'm not convinced that the study is impartial and I doubt that it is given some of the participants.

Oh jeez. You know, it begins to sound like people who think the Avian flu was "manufactured" in a laboratory. Meanwhile, they've never BEEN to a laboratory, seen the amount of employees, least of which is the entire I.T. department, who has the ability to access *every* commmunication going in or out. Ya think maybe ONE person out of thousands might "leak" the secret? :lol:

so, specifically, in the study published in the AVMA, listing the DMVs and Ph.Ds. in engineering, physiology, aerospace, and veterinary science .... you think all these guys are "in on it" somehow?

And being paid to fake videos of hoof impact and mathematical measurements?

It's really not big enough...........this is horse racing, not National Defense. :lol: :lol:

So, I read some of the names on the study, but they also have entire departments of scientists working for them.

I have no curriculum vitae on these people, so do you have some inside information on any of the them?

[andymays]

Oh jeez. You know, it begins to sound like people who think the Avian flu was "manufactured" in a laboratory. Meanwhile, they've never BEEN to a laboratory, seen the amount of employees, least of which is the entire I.T. department, who has the ability to access *every* commmunication going in or out. Ya think maybe ONE person out of thousands might "leak" the secret? :lol:

so, specifically, in the study published in the AVMA, listing the DMVs and Ph.Ds. in engineering, physiology, aerospace, and veterinary science .... you think all these guys are "in on it" somehow?

And being paid to fake videos of hoof impact and mathematical measurements?

It's really not big enough...........this is horse racing, not National Defense. :lol: :lol:



I've gone over this in the "slowly but surely the truth about synthetic surfaces" thread but I believe and I've been told that certain Racing Executives and Racing Officials recieved financial incentives to install and promote synthetic surfaces. A while back I sent an email to the CHRB asking them to disclose whether or not a certain individual who was constantly promoting synthetics had recieved any money, stock options, gifts, etc from any of the synthetic surface manufacturers. It would have been real easy to answer no! I'm still waiting. One of the gripes I have with Journalists that have covered the situation in California is that they never ask that question. It's a tough question to ask someone but it's important to the story out here. Especially when a guy like Richard Shapiro who is the main person responsible for installing them says they were a mistake!

Dr Stover changed my mind a bit about the study after I received her response to my email!