Extreme Wagering (progressive)

[rusrious]

Hey Fellas, Me again

I have been doing a Progressive betting Method using PT favorites.

Starting Bankroll Of $2,000

Im using Suffolk and Lonestar, seeing they have the best hit rate for Favorites

I have been starting with the first race, and running till the favorite hits, then my day is over when he hits, and doublin my target profits with each cycle.

First part of the cycle, my target is $2, then $4, then $8, then $16 and so on.

Anyways, Im 7th leg of the 10, ( 6 days ) and up $389 in profits.

Should I stop with just 7 cycles instead of 10? Or go to maybe 8?

Like I said, its extreme,lol.. BUT, its fun..:jump:

What would you do? I know, Im going to get alot, " I wouldnt progressivly bet to begin with", but just want some insight on it from you Pros.

Thanks,

http://i37.photobucket.com/albums/e52/rusrious/10cycle1.jpg
http://i37.photobucket.com/albums/e52/rusrious/bettingfavorites2.jpg

[Dave Schwartz]

Should I stop with just 7 cycles instead of 10? Or go to maybe 8?


You should play YOUR system, whatever that is.

[fmolf]

Hey Fellas, Me again

I have been doing a Progressive betting Method using PT favorites.

Starting Bankroll Of $2,000

Im using Suffolk and Lonestar, seeing they have the best hit rate for Favorites

I have been starting with the first race, and running till the favorite hits, then my day is over when he hits, and doublin my target profits with each cycle.

First part of the cycle, my target is $2, then $4, then $8, then $16 and so on.

Anyways, Im 7th leg of the 10, ( 6 days ) and up $389 in profits.

Should I stop with just 7 cycles instead of 10? Or go to maybe 8?

Like I said, its extreme,lol.. BUT, its fun..:jump:

What would you do? I know, Im going to get alot, " I wouldnt progressivly bet to begin with", but just want some insight on it from you Pros.

Thanks,

http://i37.photobucket.com/albums/e52/rusrious/10cycle1.jpg
http://i37.photobucket.com/albums/e52/rusrious/bettingfavorites2.jpg
mathematically speaking you will hit a sequence where a favorite will go a whole card without winning and if many of these are low priced favs your bet amt will be through the roof by race nine.Yes it is working now but over the long haul it has been proven over and over again to be unprofitable.Progressive wagering in any gambling endeavor has been shown to be ineffective and lead to bankroll erosion....stop while your way ahead!

[rusrious]

Todays result,From Suffolk, 1 bet, odds fell thru after gate opened, done for the day, will start the cycle over tomorrow.

Final results from 8 legs, $568 Profit

Also, fmolf, I understand what your saying, I did say extreme, and using the best track with the highest hit rate for favorites, cuts the odds of going 9 str8 races without a win, BUT, I hear ya.

http://i37.photobucket.com/albums/e52/rusrious/3rd.jpg

[lansdale]

Hey Fellas, Me again

I have been doing a Progressive betting Method using PT favorites.

Starting Bankroll Of $2,000

Im using Suffolk and Lonestar, seeing they have the best hit rate for Favorites

I have been starting with the first race, and running till the favorite hits, then my day is over when he hits, and doublin my target profits with each cycle.

First part of the cycle, my target is $2, then $4, then $8, then $16 and so on.

Anyways, Im 7th leg of the 10, ( 6 days ) and up $389 in profits.

Should I stop with just 7 cycles instead of 10? Or go to maybe 8?

Like I said, its extreme,lol.. BUT, its fun..:jump:

What would you do? I know, Im going to get alot, " I wouldnt progressivly bet to begin with", but just want some insight on it from you Pros.

Thanks,

http://i37.photobucket.com/albums/e52/rusrious/10cycle1.jpg
http://i37.photobucket.com/albums/e52/rusrious/bettingfavorites2.jpg

rusrious,

Although this method seems to be performing well for now, it's a mathematically-proven guaranteed loser in the long run. Professional gamblers do not bet progressions. Any reasonably competent mathematician will validate this assertion. Try calling a local college, if you don't trust the internet as a source.

Cheers,

lansdale

[fmolf]

rusrious,

Although this method seems to be performing well for now, it's a mathematically-proven guaranteed loser in the long run. Professional gamblers do not bet progressions. Any reasonably competent mathematician will validate this assertion. Try calling a local college, if you don't trust the internet as a source.

Cheers,

lansdale
%100 true and i think he knows this.I believe he is trying to exploit a very short term trend at certain tracks where a large preponderance of favorites have been winning in short fields.Continued good luck rus...but know when to say when

[jonnielu]

Good Idea Rus,

But also consider that the favorite has several consistencies. The other is being consistently overbet. With it losing 70% of the time, one bad day can put a big hit on your bank and swallow your profits. The emotional damage can be considerable also.

Take a look at the 3rd and 4th ML odds choices. They offer a solid consistencie in win percentage, although each is roughly half of the PT fav. But, neither is consistently overbet, and one is usually underbet consistently.

One of those at half its ML can be quite meaningful, especially when it is the one with some negatives in the PP's.

There are other consistencies that you can look for, such as reliable signals of stable intentions, that can bolster one of these as a selection.

When these conditions are not met, it is easier to pass with confidence that you are passing the right race. You can pass without losing, and with carrying the goal of your progression forward. And, if you make a mistake in passing, it is recoverable without blowing an emotional gasket, or killing your bankroll.

Consistency is the key, it does not have to be a huge percentage, just reliable.

jdl

[Steven Kolb]

Short term - - I like a modest progressive BlackJack strategy to make a very quick buck.

As all have said - - nothing is likely to work long term.

[fmolf]

Short term - - I like a modest progressive BlackJack strategy to make a very quick buck.

As all have said - - nothing is likely to work long term.
a good way to approach craps and roulette as well....both negative expectation games.Less bets for bigger amounts and quit while ahead!
If it were only that easy! :D

[rusrious]

Thank-You very much for the input fells..

Just to let you know, I do understand the faults, very much so, in progressive wagering. BUT, I also think it can be done, if perticualar laws are applied, which is what Im looking for.

jonnielu, I would also like to thankyou for your input, as you make some very logical points with the consistancy values. Im looking into it right now accually, as you got me fired up about it,lol..

IF there are any other points and input, or even suggestions, that you want tested, or looked into, throw me a bone.. THis is my Job..

Take care, and great betting today,;)

[fmolf]

Thank-You very much for the input fells..

Just to let you know, I do understand the faults, very much so, in progressive wagering. BUT, I also think it can be done, if perticualar laws are applied, which is what Im looking for.

jonnielu, I would also like to thankyou for your input, as you make some very logical points with the consistancy values. Im looking into it right now accually, as you got me fired up about it,lol..

IF there are any other points and input, or even suggestions, that you want tested, or looked into, throw me a bone.. THis is my Job..

Take care, and great betting today,;)Iread a handicapping book by a canadian fellow i do not have his name.I am going back to the early 80's i never tried his system but wrote it down:
start with a 1 unit bet on the favorite if it wins you are done for the day take your profits and stop the progression.
If it loses bet 2 units then 4 units etc ...etc to a maximum of 5 bets 16 units.Each bet must be paying out enough to get you at least even.If odds on the favorite are to low to get you even pass and use next race.
so if on your fourth bet in the progression(8 units@ $2 per unit)having already wagered (7 units $14)your favorite has to be at least even money.
If favorite was above even money you would make a nice profit.
He says the system can be used with the publics second choice for higher profits with more risk.
There was also a post position system as well that i did not write down.

[jonnielu]

Short term - - I like a modest progressive BlackJack strategy to make a very quick buck.

As all have said - - nothing is likely to work long term.

A blind progression, which would be where you would mechanically focus on a particular horse, or ML/PT odds, can wear you, and your bank out quickly. Usually, the player will falter on an emotional level and the protection against this is to base the entire method in sound, consistent fundamentals.

The idea that nothing will work long term, has been dis-proved enough for anyone to give it up. The angles come and go, morph into other angles or get worked into almost opposites over time. But, the fundamentals have survived since the days of Pittsburgh Phil. And, continue to weave their way through racing everyday.

The most significant constant for the bettor may be the average win mutuel of 4-1. Anyone that can join that with a few other meaningful constants could work a progressive method with a relatively small bank for the long term, that will allow for mistakes and offer some emotional protection.

If this were not so, I'd say that the membership here would be about 26 people, or, there are certainly many more crazy people in the world besides myself.

jdl

[fmolf]

A blind progression, which would be where you would mechanically focus on a particular horse, or ML/PT odds, can wear you, and your bank out quickly. Usually, the player will falter on an emotional level and the protection against this is to base the entire method in sound, consistent fundamentals.

The idea that nothing will work long term, has been dis-proved enough for anyone to give it up. The angles come and go, morph into other angles or get worked into almost opposites over time. But, the fundamentals have survived since the days of Pittsburgh Phil. And, continue to weave their way through racing everyday.

The most significant constant for the bettor may be the average win mutuel of 4-1. Anyone that can join that with a few other meaningful constants could work a progressive method with a relatively small bank for the long term, that will allow for mistakes and offer some emotional protection.

If this were not so, I'd say that the membership here would be about 26 people, or, there are certainly many more crazy people in the world besides myself.

jdl
the blind progression is on the favorite which is exactly what he is doing.Now your advocating handicapping?Normally you say the public does your handicapping?Which is it ?Your very rhetorical but you are contradicting yourself jonnie

[BlueShoe]

Playing a steep progression on post time favorites is a guaranteed recipe for sheer disaster.Period.At one Hollywood Park meeting back in the 60's favorites lost 34 races in a row,and Hollypark was considered a very formful track back then.Am sure that there have been even longer losing streaks at some other track or tracks since then.Favorites can go over 10 races in a row without showing,and that is with a thoretical 66% chance.While these losing runs are rare and unlikely,they can occur at any time.On win bets on favorites that have a thoretical 33% chance of winning,the mathematical probability is that in every sequence of 85 plays you will have a run of 10 consecutive losers once.This is way,way too risky to run a steep progression on.

[jonnielu]

the blind progression is on the favorite which is exactly what he is doing.Now your advocating handicapping?Normally you say the public does your handicapping?Which is it ?Your very rhetorical but you are contradicting yourself jonnie

No, I'm not, the reply was speaking to the idea that nothing is likely in the long term. In the long term, you can be successful with a progressive betting method, if you base on enough constants of the game. Favorites is always a poor choice because the are constantly overbet.

The race is already handicapped, no need to re-handicap it.

jdl

[fmolf]

No, I'm not, the reply was speaking to the idea that nothing is likely in the long term. In the long term, you can be successful with a progressive betting method, if you base on enough constants of the game. Favorites is always a poor choice because the are constantly overbet.

The race is already handicapped, no need to re-handicap it.

jdl
i do understand and it is precisely the reason why he is using favorites.Favorites have been shown to lose the least over the long run.He has stated that he is not doing this long term but only trying to exploit short term trends.He may do better with favorites in a certain odds range.Could you please explain what angles/constants you are talking about that are not considered by you to be actually handicapping the race?You are losing me on this aspect of what you are recommending.

[RonTiller]

OK, I checked SUF by year, for favorite win% by day. Here's a summary:

2009 to date:

Race Cards: 89
Favorites won 0 races: 1
Favorites won only 1 race: 2
Current run of race cards with at least 1 winning favorite: 40

2008:

Race Cards: 102
Favorites won 0 races: 3
Favorites won only 1 race: 11

The 3 0 win days happened in a span of 23 days
That same 23 day span also had 5 of the 1 win days

2007:

Race Cards: 101
Favorites won 0 races: 7
Favorites won only 1 race: 11

There were two 10 race card spans bookended by 0 winners.
There was another span of 4 race cards with 0, 1, 4, 0 winners.

2006:

Race Cards: 103
Favorites won 0 races: 1
Favorites won only 1 race: 7

There was a run of 72 race cards with at least 1 favorite winning.

Draw your own conclusions. I'd say have some fun and excitement, just don't play with the rent money - play with your current winnings, so if (or when) you lose it all, you'll have had a lot of excitement costing you only you original (I assume small) bankroll. Or better, pay yourself a dividend now and start over - that way you cannot lose it all, no matter what. If (or when) you do lose it all, just don't start chasing your tail to regain your profit.

I did something similar to this at a craps table for fun once. I was probably $500 up and then gave it all back and quit, losing my original stake of $20. That $20 bought several hours of fun and hooting and hollering. I always understood it was guaranteed to fail in the long run (and possibly the short run) but it was thrilling. I should also add that I have absolutely no proclivity towards problem gambling - I wasn't even slightly tempted to go into the hole once I blew my $20 stake. If this describes you, what's the harm. If you are inclined towards problem gambling, run, don't walk, away now.

Ron Tiller
HDW

[fmolf]

OK, I checked SUF by year, for favorite win% by day. Here's a summary:

2009 to date:

Race Cards: 89
Favorites won 0 races: 1
Favorites won only 1 race: 2
Current run of race cards with at least 1 winning favorite: 40

2008:

Race Cards: 102
Favorites won 0 races: 3
Favorites won only 1 race: 11

The 3 0 win days happened in a span of 23 days
That same 23 day span also had 5 of the 1 win days

2007:

Race Cards: 101
Favorites won 0 races: 7
Favorites won only 1 race: 11

There were two 10 race card spans bookended by 0 winners.
There was another span of 4 race cards with 0, 1, 4, 0 winners.

2006:

Race Cards: 103
Favorites won 0 races: 1
Favorites won only 1 race: 7

There was a run of 72 race cards with at least 1 favorite winning.

Draw your own conclusions. I'd say have some fun and excitement, just don't play with the rent money - play with your current winnings, so if (or when) you lose it all, you'll have had a lot of excitement costing you only you original (I assume small) bankroll. Or better, pay yourself a dividend now and start over - that way you cannot lose it all, no matter what. If (or when) you do lose it all, just don't start chasing your tail to regain your profit.

I did something similar to this at a craps table for fun once. I was probably $500 up and then gave it all back and quit, losing my original stake of $20. That $20 bought several hours of fun and hooting and hollering. I always understood it was guaranteed to fail in the long run (and possibly the short run) but it was thrilling. I should also add that I have absolutely no proclivity towards problem gambling - I wasn't even slightly tempted to go into the hole once I blew my $20 stake. If this describes you, what's the harm. If you are inclined towards problem gambling, run, don't walk, away now.

Ron Tiller
HDW
All well and good but the idea of playing with house money causes more gamblers ruin than anything else!Once i win the money i consider it my money not the houses money or my winnings.It is now part of my bankroll to be protected and invested wisely.I understand trying to take advantage of trends at the track,just don't give money away for the sake of fun.once this wagering angle becomes unprofitable stop and look for something else that is profitable.

[jonnielu]

i do understand and it is precisely the reason why he is using favorites.Favorites have been shown to lose the least over the long run.He has stated that he is not doing this long term but only trying to exploit short term trends.He may do better with favorites in a certain odds range.Could you please explain what angles/constants you are talking about that are not considered by you to be actually handicapping the race?You are losing me on this aspect of what you are recommending.

Maybe the problem is the long term thinking. The favorite is the most consistent winner in the long term, and it is also the worst subject for progression because it is overbet with the same consistency. The percentages may right themselves over the space of a week, but a bad 3 day period could wreck your bank.

Day one could see favorites win the first two, and day two you could be blanked. Day three may not see a favorite win until the 7th race. That might be a losing streak of 22-23 races, with the week ending up right in line with 32% PT favorites winning.

In the meantime, just using a goal of $20 per race could eat a $2,000 bank before you get to loser #17. That makes the favorite a poor subject. The biggest reason is that while the favorite does enjoy a great consistency, it is also the fattest/happiest horse on the track. Not the hungriest.

You could substitute the 3rd or 4th ML choice and have a horse that is just slightly less consistent on results (wins), the ML favorite is actually closer to 25%, while the 3rd ML choice may be 15%-18%. Between the 2, the 3rd choice is much more likely to win while being underbet, and it won't kill you if it is overbet to a degree.

Everything that I do in the 15 mins before post time in comparing horses for a betting decision, I don't call handicapping. I am generally not looking at their records, and I am looking at everything else.

jdl

[rusrious]

Hey fellas, cutting the first 2 legs and the last 2 legs, so starting at $8, instead of $2

6 total legs per cycle

Here's todays results.

http://i37.photobucket.com/albums/e52/rusrious/oct19.jpg

[rusrious]

Done for the day, Target is $16, made $18.20 bring my to-date (10 betting parts)profit of $602.40

You will notice the differance in the minium bet, and the accual bet, and of course, that is the settling of the numbers after the gates open,.. What Im accually doing is taking 1 minute to post, and dropping the odds myself by 4 spots, THEN betting..(trying to offset the settling a bit)

http://i37.photobucket.com/albums/e52/rusrious/Oct20th.jpg

[rusrious]

also, I have went thru some past results, and have found, that when it rains, to take the day off,lol.. Favorites tear it up when the track is fast and dry. Again, minimizing the " total Lose" day.

[dav4463]

Do you think you would do better if you look at the cards of both Lone Star and Suffolk and eliminate at least half the races?

You could pick the five or so races at each track where you feel like the favorite is beatable or a race where you don't really know who the favorite will be at post time.

If you play progressive on your five best races at each track; you should be able to improve upon the favorite win percent, and risk less money each day.

Ever go back and check a few charts and see how many days Suffolk or Lone Star had days where no favorites won or go back and see the percentage of winning favorites broken down by race type?

[rusrious]

Dav, RonTiller did this post.

As for the elimination process?

Ive tryed that, and, its very hard to do it. I am going to run some more numbers on this, and see what else I can findout.

If you go back a few months ago, I used my progressive ways with my picks, and I dont lose more then 3 in a row.

What Im accually looking for here, is being able to play, without an insight as far as paying for PP's or software, or data. Just a simple angle, EXTREME, but simple, and show short trends.

Im doing this for fun, to pass time.




OK, I checked SUF by year, for favorite win% by day. Here's a summary:

2009 to date:

Race Cards: 89
Favorites won 0 races: 1
Favorites won only 1 race: 2
Current run of race cards with at least 1 winning favorite: 40

2008:

Race Cards: 102
Favorites won 0 races: 3
Favorites won only 1 race: 11

The 3 0 win days happened in a span of 23 days
That same 23 day span also had 5 of the 1 win days

2007:

Race Cards: 101
Favorites won 0 races: 7
Favorites won only 1 race: 11

There were two 10 race card spans bookended by 0 winners.
There was another span of 4 race cards with 0, 1, 4, 0 winners.

2006:

Race Cards: 103
Favorites won 0 races: 1
Favorites won only 1 race: 7

There was a run of 72 race cards with at least 1 favorite winning.

Draw your own conclusions. I'd say have some fun and excitement, just don't play with the rent money - play with your current winnings, so if (or when) you lose it all, you'll have had a lot of excitement costing you only you original (I assume small) bankroll. Or better, pay yourself a dividend now and start over - that way you cannot lose it all, no matter what. If (or when) you do lose it all, just don't start chasing your tail to regain your profit.

I did something similar to this at a craps table for fun once. I was probably $500 up and then gave it all back and quit, losing my original stake of $20. That $20 bought several hours of fun and hooting and hollering. I always understood it was guaranteed to fail in the long run (and possibly the short run) but it was thrilling. I should also add that I have absolutely no proclivity towards problem gambling - I wasn't even slightly tempted to go into the hole once I blew my $20 stake. If this describes you, what's the harm. If you are inclined towards problem gambling, run, don't walk, away now.

Ron Tiller
HDW

[rusrious]

O, another thing Dav, is I found that Claiming races fair better for favorites.

I just dont have data to go back and look, just what is available thru sites, where, to honest, I have no idea where to look.

Its a flavor for the season, i guess you can say..

Times change.

[RonTiller]

I'm not going to post any more data but you can get free Equibase charts going back to 1991 here:

http://www.equibase.com/premium/eqpVchartSearch.cfm?SAP=HLN

That should be enough to research things like field size, weather, race type and such things. To get into more complex favorite handicapping issues, you'd probably need some data files. I know some programs specifically handicap the projected favorite or you could do some database work yourself.

Ron Tiller
HDW

[rusrious]

Hey Ron, thanks for the link, I did some research, back to Sept 21st, and found some interesting trends. I will get to that soon here.

Anyways, done for the day, here are the results.

PT odds accually rose a bit, when I put my bet in, it was 1.4, so i gained a extra $8 on the win.

$642.40 in profit starting Oct 10th.

http://i37.photobucket.com/albums/e52/rusrious/oct21.jpg

[rusrious]

Does anyone know how to find, or figure out percentages of the pool?

Today, I have found out that, when the favorite has 51% or more of the WIN pool, it has a very high% of winning the race.

Ex, today at Suffolk, the first races, #1 had 52.6% of the pool, (via IcanBet.com) then, race 7, #4 had 51.2% of the WIN pool. Both won, for $3.00

Just something I will watch, and "might" be able to eliminate the empty runs.

I just wanted to know, if there is a forumla to use, to find these percentages out, from past results, like from equibase..

[rusrious]

never mind the percentage question, not enough info,

BUT, it did open my eyes big and wide, Im giddy all over now, lol.:eek:

[fmolf]

never mind the percentage question, not enough info,

BUT, it did open my eyes big and wide, Im giddy all over now, lol.:eek:
go to the supertote feature on brisnet.com.....open an account its all free.I have found the brisnet ultimate pps at 3.50 a card to have the most features and info for your money.The platinum pp's are also excellent with more information then any other pp for a dollar!% of pools is a feature of the supertote.

[rusrious]

go to the supertote feature on brisnet.com.....open an account its all free.I have found the brisnet ultimate pps at 3.50 a card to have the most features and info for your money.The platinum pp's are also excellent with more information then any other pp for a dollar!% of pools is a feature of the supertote.

Thankyou Sir for the info,

[TimesTheyRAChangin]

Does anyone know how to find, or figure out percentages of the pool?

Today, I have found out that, when the favorite has 51% or more of the WIN pool, it has a very high% of winning the race.

Ex, today at Suffolk, the first races, #1 had 52.6% of the pool, (via IcanBet.com) then, race 7, #4 had 51.2% of the WIN pool. Both won, for $3.00

Just something I will watch, and "might" be able to eliminate the empty runs.

I just wanted to know, if there is a forumla to use, to find these percentages out, from past results, like from equibase..


Maybe I just don't understand your question,but,it seems to me,the larger percentage of the pool the fave has,the lower his odds must be.
So why bother with any other type of calculation?

[rusrious]

lol, yeah, thats why I said to forget it, or meant to anyways.. It was an "out there" question.

[rusrious]

Did some messin around at Goldengate, Suffolk was off today, so had to do something. Missed the first race, but got the rest. THis is another way I do my progression, started with $500 bankroll, and object is to win 1% of my bankroll, and adjusting bank after each hit or cycle. Just cycled twice, and caught the last race.. Phew,lol.. Was exciting tho, none-the-less, and never mind that 2nd bet for the 6th, i messed up there.

http://i37.photobucket.com/albums/e52/rusrious/oct22.jpg

[rusrious]

Hey fellas, continue to roll.

Here are todays results, won on first race of the day, quick one. 4 favorites hit the winners circle today at Suffolk

12 day total, $704.80 in profit

http://i37.photobucket.com/albums/e52/rusrious/oct24.jpg

[rusrious]

Hey Fellas, Won on the first race again, Target was $128 today, Im at the 5th part of the 6 part cycle, big day tomorrowfor $256

13 day total--$841.60

http://i37.photobucket.com/albums/e52/rusrious/oct26.jpg

[rusrious]

6 favorites hit the winners circle today at Suffolk, could have ran a whole cycle in one day,lol.

[rusrious]

Hey Fellas, another day in the bag.. Favorite hit first race, which was nice..

Accually, I took the PT at 1 minute to Post, and was at 7/5 (best favorite), and by the time the race was over, it was 8/5.. SO that is why there is a differance in the spreadsheet, and it paid off nicely at $491, - the $182 bet, profiting $309.40

So now, I have finished 2 full cycles, playing favorites, (PT) and it has profited $1,251 in 14 days



http://i37.photobucket.com/albums/e52/rusrious/oct27.jpg

[teddy]

Everyone is waiting for you to hit a long string of losers.. what do you have in place to stop you from losing your shirt then. Any ideas on how to keep that low probability from being reality... Since faves with 1/3 of the time the likely hood of long losses is more likely than short term win streaks. Do you handicap the favs also. Thanks.

[rusrious]

Everyone is waiting for you to hit a long string of losers.. what do you have in place to stop you from losing your shirt then. Any ideas on how to keep that low probability from being reality... Since faves with 1/3 of the time the likely hood of long losses is more likely than short term win streaks. Do you handicap the favs also. Thanks.

Hey teddy, I know, its may happen, or probably happen, soon then later, but so far, so good,lol..

For one, if its rainy and very sloppy, favorites get beat alot. ANother thing, Claiming favorites hit much, much better. I dont handicap these races, simply because Im playing the numbers, and not the horses. Playing with-out data..

[TimesTheyRAChangin]

Actually,you were pretty lucky!
The 4 was slight fave(7-5)at 1mtp,as the 3 was 3-2.
Then the 3 was hit a lot and actually went off as the 4-5 fave,and ran out of the money.

Hey Fellas, another day in the bag.. Favorite hit first race, which was nice..

Accually, I took the PT at 1 minute to Post, and was at 7/5 (best favorite), and by the time the race was over, it was 8/5.. SO that is why there is a differance in the spreadsheet, and it paid off nicely at $491, - the $182 bet, profiting $309.40

So now, I have finished 2 full cycles, playing favorites, (PT) and it has profited $1,251 in 14 days



http://i37.photobucket.com/albums/e52/rusrious/oct27.jpg

[rusrious]

Yeah TImes, it was crazy, #4 had 44% of the win pool, then in like 3 minutes, 3 eat it up.. I have seen many times, that 1 minute to post is a great time to pick the favorite, alot of cash gets dumped at the last second, its nuts. But I also watch the board, and look for that stuff.

Im learning alot playing like this, thats for sure.. Trends, trends, trends

[juanepstein]

i was screwing around with exotics in harness and found that the 2nd largest win pool runner wins or places alot. especially in the 2nd tier harness tracks.

if the 2nd largest win pool wasnt even close to the favs win pool i would skip unless the fav looked physically out of it.

[MONEY]

Everyone is waiting for you to hit a long string of losers.. what do you have in place to stop you from losing your shirt then. Any ideas on how to keep that low probability from being reality... Since faves with 1/3 of the time the likely hood of long losses is more likely than short term win streaks. Do you handicap the favs also. Thanks.

I'm not waiting for him to hit a long string of losers. I'm hoping that he defies all odds and keeps on winning until he decides to quit.

money

[rusrious]

juanepstein, good stuff, i seen you working them last week.. I believe the pools are telling, especially when they are at 50% and above, they are in the money almost every time, if not win..

Im going to ride this for awhile, then maybe might check into pool plays, which really, isnt a bad idea.. Its just the fluxuation (spellin horrid) that can get you caught up. Like a horse 52-53%, then falls to 38% from 1 minute to post, to the wire, its unreal at times.

[juanepstein]

juanepstein, good stuff, i seen you working them last week.. I believe the pools are telling, especially when they are at 50% and above, they are in the money almost every time, if not win..

Im going to ride this for awhile, then maybe might check into pool plays, which really, isnt a bad idea.. Its just the fluxuation (spellin horrid) that can get you caught up. Like a horse 52-53%, then falls to 38% from 1 minute to post, to the wire, its unreal at times.

those big changes are serious at the bigger harness tracks.

mohawk kills me

[rusrious]

Hye guys,done for the day.. What I did this in this cycle, is reduce the steps to 5, So, first day of the cycle, my target profit is $16.

Part1-$16
Part2-$32
Part3-$64
Part4-$128
Part5-$256

Total=$490 in 5 race days, and the cycles will stay at this rate from now on. I think, if you can make $100 a day, in anything, thats not to bad, $35,600 in a year?

http://i37.photobucket.com/albums/e52/rusrious/oct28.jpg

[rusrious]

Hey Fellas, done for the day, missed my $32 with the first wager, due to odds falling after bet was made, so made it up with the second bet. Worked out well, came out with a $38.60 profit for the day.


Total to date--Started with $2,000---now, $3,206.80


http://i37.photobucket.com/albums/e52/rusrious/oct31.jpg

[rusrious]

last 5 meets favorites won

Oct 24, 4 wins (muddy)
Oct 26, 6 wins (fast)
Oct 27, 4 win (fast)
Oct 28, 3 wins (muddy)
Oct 31, 6 wins (fast)

[rusrious]

WEll there its, Overrrrr, went till the 9th race for the favorite to hit. and it payed $6.60 for the win,

go figure,lol, was fun tho, and I learned a few things.

[teddy]

The end! Could you put in a loss stop at some point. And still be profitable.
Say at 4 losses. I guess you need to know how often it goes 4 losses without hitting.

[rusrious]

yeah, Teddy, probably after the second loss, stop. Seing that Suffolk, alot of the favorite won the 1st, or 2nd.

[teddy]

Hope you didn't lose it all back. I wonder how many horses with the top Prime Power number by at least 10 pts lost in a row. Try that one!!

[jefftune]

It's gonna get scary when the fave doesn't win for 10 races and you are up to a $2,046 bet. And then ugly when he wins and pays $2.80