UPDATE: BRIS PP VS. TLG AND CMOORE

[markgoldie]

THIS IS A CERTIFIED "CLUTTER-FREE" POSTING:

Since it only takes a few minutes to do, I decided to check in on the Bris PP top selection versus our two warriors. Been a rough patch for them and for the Bris PP number as well. Since weather conditions have been cited as an excuse, it's only fair to point out that the Bris number is out well before either of our selector's picks. Also, the Bris number is unable to pick first timers under any circumstances. And thirdly, unlike the selections of TLG and Cmoore, the Bris selection actually attracts some wagering action from the public, thereby lowering the value on it's picks.

Anyway, through the same 66 picks:

Number of winners: 21
Win percentage (strike rate): 31.8%
$2 Win Investment: $132
$2 Win Return: $117.00
Profit/Loss: -$15
ROI: -11.36%

Note to tucker6: Dartboard results are pending the delivery of the dart board and darts I ordered, as well as the monkey to throw them.

[GameTheory]

And thirdly, unlike the selections of TLG and Cmoore, the Bris selection actually attracts some wagering action from the public, thereby lowering the value on it's picks.TLG probably attracts some -- he is the public handicapper after all, with picks posted on NYRA with him on TV talking about 'em.

It doesn't look like the BRIS number had a rough time at all -- I would expect it to finish the test with a worse ROI than what you've posted...

[the_fat_man]

This is one of those exercises that makes no sense.

Nobody actually bets this way. While some are betting to win only, they're certainly not betting every race. This is thus an artificial format, the result of the public handicapper job description. It's hard enough to show a profit betting win selectively, let alone EVERY race, so, the end result will be a NEGATIVE ROI here; for BOTH. I can understand Serling 'being' here (by proxy or otherwise) but what in the world would be Moore's motivation to look at all these races and come up with FOUR selections in each? Especially given the UGLY racing going on at BEL these days.

[GameTheory]

This is one of those exercises that makes no sense.

Nobody actually bets this way. While some are betting to win only, they're certainly not betting every race. This is thus an artificial format, the result of the public handicapper job description. It's hard enough to show a profit betting win selectively, let alone EVERY race, so, the end result will be a NEGATIVE ROI here; for BOTH. I can understand Serling 'being' here (by proxy or otherwise) but what in the world would be Moore's motivation to look at all these races and come up with FOUR selections in each? Especially given the UGLY racing going on at BEL these days.This came out of the bashing of TLG by certain people who said he was a crap handicapper because his public selections didn't show a positive return. Thus the challenge for someone else to do better in the same artificial format...

[CBedo]

This is one of those exercises that makes no sense.

Nobody actually bets this way. While some are betting to win only, they're certainly not betting every race. I think there are more than you think that are betting to win every race (just not serious bettors probably). This is thus an artificial format, the result of the public handicapper job description. It's hard enough to show a profit betting win selectively, let alone EVERY race, so, the end result will be a NEGATIVE ROI here; for BOTH. THAT'S THE POINT. TLG has been beat up by some for not showing a better roi. I can understand Serling 'being' here (by proxy or otherwise) but what in the world would be Moore's motivation to look at all these races and come up with FOUR selections in each? Especially given the UGLY racing going on at BEL these days.Exactly.

[tucker6]

Note to tucker6: Dartboard results are pending the delivery of the dart board and darts I ordered, as well as the monkey to throw them.
Mark,

I have been called worse, so thanks for being kind. :D

Tom

[markgoldie]

TLG probably attracts some -- he is the public handicapper after all, with picks posted on NYRA with him on TV talking about 'em.

It doesn't look like the BRIS number had a rough time at all -- I would expect it to finish the test with a worse ROI than what you've posted...
I don't follow NYRA racing, so I'm not familiar with TLG's history. From what I've read casually on some threads here, though, sounds like his own wife with a gun to her head wouldn't back his selections. The Bris number, on the other hand goes around the world on downloads of their pps. Computer players, like myself, see the Bris selections, whereas a relative handful see the NYRA TV feed or routinely access their website, much less dote on this guy's picks. So I think the effect is orders of magnitude apart.

Poster "Light" has said that he has tracked the Bris PP top selection in NY in the past and that it actually may do a bit better than -11% that it is showing in these few races.

Personally, I have said that ANY accomplished and experienced handicapper should be able to beat the Bris PP number over a reasonable number of trials and 500 (which apparently is the number that will apply to this current contest) would seem to be a reasonably representative number. Therefore, I would expect both players to beat the PP ROI. If they do not, IMO they are not doing a very good job.

[markgoldie]

Mark,

I have been called worse, so thanks for being kind. :D

Tom
Wasn't calling you a monkey. Didn't know you wanted to apply as the dart-thrower. But if you have yor heart set on it, sure. Why not?? I don't know what monkeys eat besides bananas anyway. :D

[PaceAdvantage]

From what I've read casually on some threads here, though, sounds like his own wife with a gun to her head wouldn't back his selections.And finally, we get to the meat of the matter. Sorry mark, the position you are lobbying so very hard for was filled quite some time ago.

Try again. :lol:

[CBedo]

Wasn't calling you a monkey. Didn't know you wanted to apply as the dart-thrower. But if you have yor heart set on it, sure. Why not?? I don't know what monkeys eat besides bananas anyway. :DDon't forget the infinite monkey theorem!

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Infinite_monkey_theorem

[the little guy]

I don't follow NYRA racing, so I'm not familiar with TLG's history. From what I've read casually on some threads here, though, sounds like his own wife with a gun to her head wouldn't back his selections.



Thanks for the confirmation about what seemed readily apparent from your previous posts.

The anonyumous buffoonery on the internet never ceases to amaze me.

[PaceAdvantage]

Dontcha just love the qualifications they throw in there...."Well, I don't follow NYRA racing..."

...but somehow, even though they "don't follow NYRA racing," they are magically attracted to multiple threads that are all about a NYRA racing guy....:lol:

[the_fat_man]

I think that anytime now, GOLDIE will post ANOTHER one of his 50 race positive ROI samples. You know, those 2% ahead jobs.

I'm just standing by so I can learn something. :rolleyes:

[Indulto]

Thanks for the confirmation about what seemed readily apparent from your previous posts.

The anonyumous buffoonery on the internet never ceases to amaze me.You've demonstrated repeatedly that buffoonery is not limited to the anonymous.;)

What I'd like to know is why you're going along with this scorekeeping, cheerleading exercise of PA's without tracking the results of your top 3 and top 4 selections in the horizontal exotics. The time as being spent. Why not make it count for something.

I'd like to see the DRF consensus selector's selections compared here (at least Grening's, anyway -- after the races, of course) as a traditional control factor.

Hell, throw in Nick Kling, while you're at it.

[CBedo]

Thanks for the confirmation about what seemed readily apparent from your previous posts.

The anonyumous buffoonery on the internet never ceases to amaze me.I usually enjoy your posts. I look forward to your well thought out analysis, your tv appearances and your tweets.

This post, however, is surpising to me. So, you're following this topic and thread but have no comment or opinon the whole time about the role of public handicappers and how they approach the game, but you will take the time to blast someone who doesn't seem to like what you do?

[the little guy]

I usually enjoy your posts. I look forward to your well thought out analysis, your tv appearances and your tweets.

This post, however, is surpising to me. So, you're following this topic and thread but have no comment or opinon the whole time about the role of public handicappers and how they approach the game, but you will take the time to blast someone who doesn't seem to like what you do?

This is not " someone who doesn't seem to like what " I do. As he stated....he doesn't follow me at all. He just wanted to take a cheap shot.

He got an even kinder response than he deserved.

[markgoldie]

This is not " someone who doesn't seem to like what " I do. As he stated....he doesn't follow me at all. He just wanted to take a cheap shot.

He got an even kinder response than he deserved.
Allow me to apologize for the ill-conceived joke. It's not my normal style. I never should have said it and I publicly take it back. Forgive me. We alll make foot-in-mouth comments on occasion and this was one. No excuses.

I am not lobbying for anything. The last thing I want to do is be a public handicapper or anything of the sort. I do not follow NY racing and that's the truth. I don't watch any racing shows as I am strictly a computer bettor.

I do believe that any good handicapper should be able to beat the Bris PP number, but that's just my opinion and I could be wrong.

In my own meager defense, I think most of my posts on this forum have been constructive, so this was an unfortunate abberation.

At any rate, sincere good luck in you endeavors and again, sorry.

Mark