Quality Road BC Classic Bound [Archive] - Horse Racing Forum - PaceAdvantage.Com

Stevie Belmont

10-13-2009, 09:38 AM

According to Team Pletcher, the BC Classic is the most likely choice for the son of Elusive Quality. The mile is an option as well, but the classic looks more likely.

This is a horse I like a lot, however, running in the classic makes me wonder. I certainly think he is at his best on a fast dirt surface. He will be on the Pro-Ride for the first time. I know some will toss this one completely.

I have reservations myself. How will he handle the poly, for that matter how will any horse react to it, trying it for the first time? I am not worried about the distance.

The whole BC Card is a puzzle with this Pro-Ride. Let's face it, a lot of dirt horses do not care for it at all.

Euros and confirmed Poly horses will be the ones to look at, but this sport is not always as easy as it seems.

Valuist

10-13-2009, 09:40 AM

IMO, he's a definite tossout, hopefully at fairly low odds with Sea the Stars definitely not in the race. There could be a number of horses in this race taking decent money who've never run on the plastic or grass before. Summer Bird is another that comes to mind.

miesque

10-13-2009, 09:46 AM

Obviously breeding isn't everything and just one factor, however, its important to note that Quality Road's sire Elusive Quality was a turf miler and was also the sire of last year's winner Raven's Pass and his broodmare sire was a distance turfer coming in second in the BC Turf. I think this is probably the reason the owner is interested in taking a shot at the BC Classic on the Pro-Ride.

Moyers Pond

10-13-2009, 10:02 AM

He is live because he is just very talented. If he likes the proride he is dangerous because he likely will have JV on board.

His pedigree sure does suggest he has a shot. If there is no Zenyatta I would give him the best shot for an American to hit the board.

Gorgeous George

10-13-2009, 10:06 AM

Not that Sea The Stars isnt running the outstanding colt in the race is Rip Van Winkle. Currently trading at 2/1 im seriously lumping on. Having had foot problems at the start of the season he's been a revaltion in his last 3 starts, coming within a length of sea the stars in the eclipse then winning 2 group 1's after that.

Bochall

10-13-2009, 10:10 AM

I think Quality Road needs a dirt fast track to be at his best. That being said, the Goodwood was a case of whom i hated the least, so maybe he can run with 'em on poly. Einstein may be our best shot for a board finish if he goes in the Classic. He's gettin old and he's not that fast but he shows up and has guts at least.

1st time lasix

10-13-2009, 10:24 AM

After having him in the Florida Derby...I have lost money on him ever since. Tired of expecting him to be more than he is......

GaryG

10-13-2009, 10:37 AM

I have never cared for the way Quality Road drifts out. I do not see him winning a big race any time soon. I am with George on Rip Van Winkle. He is in top form and the class of the field.

ghostyapper

10-13-2009, 10:40 AM

I have never cared for the way Quality Road drifts out. I do not see him winning a big race any time soon. I am with George on Rip Van Winkle. He is in top form and the class of the field.

His JCGC was a winning performance. I wouldn't bet him on poly but on dirt he's very dangerous

joanied

10-13-2009, 10:51 AM

I think they should go with the 'Dirt' Mile...he has the breeding to go long, and the breeding to like the stupid surface...but the colt does have speed, and the Mile may be just the ticket for him...but, hey...what do I know:D

Fingal

10-13-2009, 11:08 AM

Didn't Pletcher say he wasn't coming back to the Breeder's Cup at Santa Anita ?
Interesting.:rolleyes:

tribecaagent

10-13-2009, 11:09 AM

His JCGC was a winning performance. I wouldn't bet him on poly but on dirt he's very dangerous

Just curious...why wouldn't you bet him on pro-ride/poly?

10-13-2009, 01:38 PM

Probably because he realizes he has no chance.

11cashcall

10-13-2009, 01:43 PM

Didn't Pletcher say he wasn't coming back to the Breeder's Cup at Santa Anita ?
Interesting.:rolleyes:

There are a few trainers to toss come BC day.The fact that TAP is showing up just makes the odds on my selections even more appealing now.

46zilzal

10-13-2009, 01:46 PM

Just curious...why wouldn't you bet him on pro-ride/poly?
Being the polar opposite of dirt dynamics, BLACK and WHITE, the synthocrap will make this one look less than stellar as opposed to good old dirt.

slew101

10-13-2009, 01:50 PM

His owners decided he was. Trainers have little say in these spots. The owners want the shot at a big purse/race.

The best example is Barclay Tagg was forced to take Funny Cide to the BC Classic in his 3-year-old year when he had no shot simply because the owners wanted to make the trip.

Didn't Pletcher say he wasn't coming back to the Breeder's Cup at Santa Anita ?
Interesting.:rolleyes:

ddog

10-13-2009, 01:57 PM

He has NO SHOT. Hope if they run him he doesn't hurt himself.

Stupid owners.

ghostyapper

10-13-2009, 02:05 PM

Just curious...why wouldn't you bet him on pro-ride/poly?

Don't think it suits his running style.

tribecaagent

10-13-2009, 06:42 PM

Probably because he realizes he has no chance.

I'm not saying you're wrong CJ, but if synthetic racing has taught us anything, it's that any horse can move up and to say he has no shot is a bit premature.

bisket

10-13-2009, 07:02 PM

i thought after the jcgc this is where we would see this horse. i don't like his running style for the classic. now if he runs in the mile i like him. odds 3-1 or better in the mile i like him even more!!! i'm tellin ya rich is the horse in the classic.

ddog

10-13-2009, 07:03 PM

He doesn't seem like the same horse. I don't think he has a future.

Would not bet him at anything under 15-1.

Maybe grass at a mile, maybe.

bisket

10-13-2009, 07:17 PM

He doesn't seem like the same horse. I don't think he has a future.

Would not bet him at anything under 15-1.

Maybe grass at a mile, maybe.
i had a susupicion that pletcher wouldn't be good for this horse. i personally think he's a lousy trainer. with all the horses he has access to i can't think of one horse he's trained that has put together 3 graded wins in a row. if there are some that have done it i bet you can count them on one hand. his horses never hold form. his horses do have a very profound form cycle though. i handicapp pletcher like i handicapp a claiming trainer. his horses form cycle is similar to claimers. he seems to always want to know when he can count on a win in a soft spot. thats the mark of a successful claiming trainer. after that win he'll run the horse in a tough spot and the horse never wins.

10-13-2009, 07:21 PM

I'm not saying you're wrong CJ, but if synthetic racing has taught us anything, it's that any horse can move up and to say he has no shot is a bit premature.

I know, of course he has a chance. But, horses with his running style in top class races going long, especially 10f, are really, really up against it.

WinterTriangle

10-14-2009, 12:36 AM

He is live because he is just very talented. If he likes the proride he is dangerous because he likely will have JV on board.

His pedigree sure does suggest he has a shot.

Yes, he has turf on both sides of pedigree, should have a shot. But they're always putting him behind the 8 ball! 6F prep before last race, now it's dirt to Proride. If QR ever gets a chance to do what he does best again........

Last year, horses that prepped on the dirt were 0-for-23 on SA's Pro-Ride.

Rail Trip, Einstein, Gio Ponti only ones I like along with the euros.

(I liked spanish moon but looks to be running in the turf instead?)

bisket, richards kid, bullsbay, einstein, all around the same beyer, probably about 107? Not sure enough to win this

CincyHorseplayer

10-14-2009, 12:59 AM

A lot of good points here.

Bisket,I think you're wrong in QR's case.Coming off a foot injury and going all out in a sprint,then come back 2nd off the layoff at 10f,didn't really expect a huge one out him.Then another 10f in a mud puddle and he ran a pretty good race.Now to Pro-Ride.His form might be as muddied as the outcomes of these BC races!!But..

I hope he races as a 4yo because he's got some big ones in him once he hits some fast dirt.

Moyers Pond

10-14-2009, 08:44 AM

There are a lot of good points here. But is anyone really going to be shocked if he wins the Classic? Other than the Europeans who does he have to beat? Summer Bird is much less likely than QR to like the proride. Let's remember the sire of last years Classic winner is also the sire of QR.

I will take a shot with somebody else, probably Bafferts horse, but I won't be shocked if QR wins. I also think Mine That Bird is very live at 10f.

miesque

10-14-2009, 09:17 AM

Yes, he has turf on both sides of pedigree, should have a shot. But they're always putting him behind the 8 ball! 6F prep before last race, now it's dirt to Proride. If QR ever gets a chance to do what he does best again........

Last year, horses that prepped on the dirt were 0-for-23 on SA's Pro-Ride.

In my opinion, that is one of the big issues I have with Quality Road at this point regarding the BC Classic, is Quality Road coming into this race with the requisite foundation and training which will give him the necessary bottom. In addition, training a horse for 10 furlongs on the Pro-Ride is not what I would consider to be one of Pletchers stronger points. Keep in mind, Pletcher doesn't have the greatest record for Breeders Cup (3 wins in 56 starts, Ashado, English Channel and Speightstown) and did not even hit the board with his five starters in the BC Classic (all on dirt) and when you couple in the fact that its on Pro-Ride, I don't have a ton of confidence. That said, I am trying very hard to keep an open mind about all of the contenders for each of the 14 Breeders Cup races until I scour the PPs and spend several days getting a good visual account of them in the flesh as they train up to the race in the mornings. Every year there are longshots that far exceed expectations and favorites that wither so I have found that keeping an open mind as long as possible can be quite helpful in nailing a lucrative payout, but that is just my approach.

Moyers Pond

10-14-2009, 10:46 AM

In my opinion, that is one of the big issues I have with Quality Road at this point regarding the BC Classic, is Quality Road coming into this race with the requisite foundation and training which will give him the necessary bottom. In addition, training a horse for 10 furlongs on the Pro-Ride is not what I would consider to be one of Pletchers stronger points. Keep in mind, Pletcher doesn't have the greatest record for Breeders Cup (3 wins in 56 starts, Ashado, English Channel and Speightstown) and did not even hit the board with his five starters in the BC Classic (all on dirt) and when you couple in the fact that its on Pro-Ride, I don't have a ton of confidence. That said, I am trying very hard to keep an open mind about all of the contenders for each of the 14 Breeders Cup races until I scour the PPs and spend several days getting a good visual account of them in the flesh as they train up to the race in the mornings. Every year there are longshots that far exceed expectations and favorites that wither so I have found that keeping an open mind as long as possible can be quite helpful in nailing a lucrative payout, but that is just my approach.

Of course he has the foundation. He just ran in back to back 10f races. He actually ran a 110 beyer in his last. The horse that beat him is very good. If Quality Road likes the proride, and his pedigree suggests he will, there is no reason to think he will not run a very good race. He just might not be good enough to win the biggest race in the world. If there were no Europeans in this race I would give him as good of a shot as anyone.

miesque

10-14-2009, 11:05 AM

Of course he has the foundation. He just ran in back to back 10f races. He actually ran a 110 beyer in his last. The horse that beat him is very good. If Quality Road likes the proride, and his pedigree suggests he will, there is no reason to think he will not run a very good race. He just might not be good enough to win the biggest race in the world. If there were no Europeans in this race I would give him as good of a shot as anyone.

There are five weeks between the Jockey Club Gold Cup and the Breeders Cup Classic and 10 furlongs in the slop is not the same as 10 furlongs over the Pro-Ride, but mostly I made that comment because of the manner in which he came into the Travers, there is the feeling they are pushing/rushing a bit with Quality Road (and the fact remains that he did not win either). Also, there are going to be Europeans in the race, in fact some very good ones even without Sea The Stars showing up who are in all likelihood trained to run in a manner more conduscive to the Pro-Ride. With that in mind Quality Road needs everything to fall perfectly in place for success in the BC Classic (which of course is the case for many in the BC).

Bochall

10-14-2009, 12:05 PM

Quality Road had better have his 'poly boots' on or I just cant take him on that surface at a price anyway near where his morning line will be. I think many very good 'real dirt' horses will go off at bigger than expected prices as a result of last years' races. You should get paid if you can predict which ones will transfer their form the poly....and speaking of 'poly boots' I have inadvertently stumbled upon an interesting question: Are there some horseshoes that perform better on poly/pro ride???

Space Monkey

10-14-2009, 12:33 PM

I think they should go with the 'Dirt' Mile.

I agree Joanied. He reminds me of Hard Spun. A horse that would be a great miler but was always sent longer where he usually hits the board but does not win.

Last year, horses that prepped on the dirt were 0-for-23 on SA's Pro-Ride.

Great bit of info WT.

I also don't believe QR has the foundation to win this race. The only caveat to that would be if he takes to the Pro-Ride like a fish to water. That is a possibility considering his breeding. I'm betting against it. I'm 99.9% sure that he'll be a throwout on my tickets.

Pell Mell

10-14-2009, 12:58 PM

tribecaagent

10-14-2009, 02:45 PM

The major knock on Summer Bird is price. The way this thing is shaping up, with all the intangibles, to take ANY horse in the single digit range is senseless.

I'm not an advocate of Quality Road (though I might be by post time). I'd much rather wager on QR in the 12-1 range than Summer Bird, Zenyatta, or Colonel John in the area of 4-1.

FenceBored

10-14-2009, 06:05 PM

JMO, but I think everyone is discounting Summer Bird and not giving him due credit.

He lost 2 races because of tactics. In the derby he had a very low level jock who tried to come from way out of it and ran very, very wide and was coming on at the finish.
In the knock against him by most people is that Rachel beat him in the Haskell. KD tried something with the Bird that hadn't been tried before by going right up to challenge the leader. But, they did learn what needed to be done and that is to get into stalking position which he has the speed to do.

Summer Bird did not lose the Haskell due to bad tactics. He finished second because of good tactics. There was no likelihood of coming from way out of it on that track. Desormeaux put SB where he needed to be to have a chance to win in the Haskell, and just got outkicked. Compare his race to Papa Clem's, who was where I think you'd say that SB should have been. PC made up no ground on the leaders. Take the filly out and at the 1/2 mark PC was 3rd, back 1.5 lengths from Munnings, at the finish he was 3rd, 1.75 lengths behind Summer Bird. Even his lead on the horses following him was roughly the same, 1/2 to the next horse at the half, 3/4 to the next horse at the finish.

Pell Mell

10-14-2009, 06:40 PM

Summer Bird did not lose the Haskell due to bad tactics. He finished second because of good tactics. There was no likelihood of coming from way out of it on that track. Desormeaux put SB where he needed to be to have a chance to win in the Haskell, and just got outkicked. Compare his race to Papa Clem's, who was where I think you'd say that SB should have been. PC made up no ground on the leaders. Take the filly out and at the 1/2 mark PC was 3rd, back 1.5 lengths from Munnings, at the finish he was 3rd, 1.75 lengths behind Summer Bird. Even his lead on the horses following him was roughly the same, 1/2 to the next horse at the half, 3/4 to the next horse at the finish.

Your probably right in you analysis, but the point I wanted to make was that SB had never been on the pace and by showing speed and staying on to the end I felt this was a big step forward in his development. Compared to the rest of the contenders he is a lightly raced colt, well handled, still maturing and should only get better.;)