Did I Make a Mistake?

[OverlayHunter]

I was eliminated from the Santa Anita Showvivor contest yesterday (10/10/09) when my selection in the 3rd race, number :2: Plasma Beam, came in 4th. Not a tragedy but I'd like to learn from my mistakes, if any.

I understand that Zenyatta would have been a better contest pick (almost half the participants had her) but my wife is just learning the game and has a preference for 7F and 8F races so we give those the priority when they are playable. We handicap independently and both ended up with the :2: a selection I felt very comfortable with to finish in the money. Looking back after the loss the only thing I can see that may have been a negative was that the last work may have been too fast.

If anyone has good reasons why the horse should not have been a strong candidate to finish in the money in that short field I'd appreciate your insights.

I based my decision to use him on his handling his conditions in good fashion, competitive figures, good works (with the possible exception I mentioned), good jock and trainer, success at the distance.

I didn't like the :3: being in for tag and having some sort of physical problems as indicated by the multiple layoffs or the :4: for not fitting the conditions as well and having figs that were not quite as good.

I didn't like the :5: at all - just didn't fit.

The other 2 horses in the race, the :6: who won and the :1: who came in 2nd were both legit contenders in my opinion and I thought would probably be competitive but I gave the overall edge to the :2: who came in 4th behind the :4: .

All constructive thoughts will be appreciated.

[Imriledup]

The Beam is a nice colt, but the field was strong. He just got outrun by some good horses. Was there any reason you didn't just go with Zenyatta and be done with it?

Did you think Z would be off the board and knock half everyone out?

The better contest pick would have been Bafferts filly who won from post 10 with Raffy imo.

I actually loved that Beamer last time and won a great photo at a nice price.

[WinterTriangle]

I can't see anything you overlooked tragically, by picking Plasma Beam. I wagered him in his maiden, because I follow the Smarty Jones runners....he was very game, Smarty babies are always late-developers, as is Plasma Beam.

I even wagered him in the La Jolla, when he was unproven on turf, and even though the other Smarty baby, I'll Show Them, was running. Then he won that allowance at Del on dirt....

His early and late pace figures were competitive. I wouldn't have picked the 6 over him, actually. :confused:

Only thing I can think of is that SA poly not his surface?

[OverlayHunter]

Imriledup - Thanks for your comments. While I can see Z's running style getting her beat for the win some day, I'd have been surprised to see her out of the money yesterday so clearly, for me, she was the correct strategic contest choice. However, this exercise with my wife is a lot more than trying to win a contest and is primarily about helping her be a better, more knowledgeable handicapper and bettor and when she is in her comfort zone of 7F and 8F races we can talk more about class (a real weakness of hers at the moment) and pace and other issues. So, I go through a card starting with 7F and 8F races and if one of those is a playable race that's what we work on. That's not the ideal strategy to win the contest but it is the best for her long-term handicapping success.

WT - thanks for sharing your insights. I hadn't thought of the possibility of the surface, I guess time will tell on that.

[WinterTriangle]

WT - thanks for sharing your insights. I hadn't thought of the possibility of the surface, I guess time will tell on that.

I am not a big Cali player, but I noticed when doing sire research for the Goodwood, I made up a little chart showing horses from particular sires who show WINS on this surface. Highest numbers were CJ, Parading, Informed, Chocolate Candy. Next was Richard's Kid (but I should have given him extra points for SA trainer/surface brilliance) and then Monzante (horses from that sire, like Richard's Kid, had 2 wins on SA surface, 2 in last 12 months).

I didn't have stats for Gitano, natch.

When I cross referenced it on sire wins at 9F on dirt, even though some of them had good stats there, it didn't make as much difference as SA surface.....and they didn't hit the board.

Another friend did sire-side and broodmare sire stats on the Goodwood, hit the superfecta for Goodwood. I asked him if it was distance or surface specific, or if it took both into account, so I'll let you know!

So, that's why I mentioned it to you. Some of the SA players could probably offer more insight, but I'm trying to just figure it out myself. :)

[rokitman]

I was eliminated from the Santa Anita Showvivor contest yesterday (10/10/09) when my selection in the 3rd race, number :2: Plasma Beam, came in 4th. Not a tragedy but I'd like to learn from my mistakes, if any.

I understand that Zenyatta would have been a better contest pick (almost half the participants had her) but my wife is just learning the game and has a preference for 7F and 8F races so we give those the priority when they are playable. We handicap independently and both ended up with the :2: a selection I felt very comfortable with to finish in the money. Looking back after the loss the only thing I can see that may have been a negative was that the last work may have been too fast.

If anyone has good reasons why the horse should not have been a strong candidate to finish in the money in that short field I'd appreciate your insights.

I based my decision to use him on his handling his conditions in good fashion, competitive figures, good works (with the possible exception I mentioned), good jock and trainer, success at the distance.

I didn't like the :3: being in for tag and having some sort of physical problems as indicated by the multiple layoffs or the :4: for not fitting the conditions as well and having figs that were not quite as good.

I didn't like the :5: at all - just didn't fit.

The other 2 horses in the race, the :6: who won and the :1: who came in 2nd were both legit contenders in my opinion and I thought would probably be competitive but I gave the overall edge to the :2: who came in 4th behind the :4: .

All constructive thoughts will be appreciated.
Godd bless you :cool: