PDA

View Full Version : Crist's column


Valuist
10-10-2009, 08:46 PM
Great column by Steven Crist in Sunday's DRF. I have the hard copy so no link to post but to paraphrase, he pokes fun at the Euros and their "greatest ever" talk about Sea the Stars....talk which seems to come up every 5-10 years. He brings up a good point; Youmzain ran 2nd in the Arc three years in a row yet Sea the Stars' winning margin was no greater than Zarkava's over Youmzain last year. Are we to believe Sea the Stars is light years ahead of Zarkava? And in light of a blazing pace (it was about 15 lengths between the 2 pacesetters and the rest of the field for much of the Arc), one would've thought the margin would've been bigger.

Those of us who remember back in 1986 heard all the same things.....but somehow a great grass horse named Manila was under the radar enough to pay about $20 in beating supposedly the best horse in 50 years in Europe.

WinterTriangle
10-10-2009, 09:02 PM
one would've thought the margin would've been bigger.



History of the Arc---considered such a tough race with such tough competition, pretty sure nobody has ever won by huge amt. of lengths. Or rather, it is not frequent.

statik27
10-10-2009, 10:21 PM
History of the Arc---considered such a tough race with such tough competition, pretty sure nobody has ever won by huge amt. of lengths. Or rather, it is not frequent.

Sea-Bird

bigmack
10-10-2009, 10:44 PM
I have the hard copy so no link to post but to paraphrase, he pokes fun at the Euros and their "greatest ever" talk about Sea the Stars....
An excerpt:

By all overseas accounts and even to an American eye that has seen him only on tape, Sea the Stars is clearly an outstanding racehorse. By most of those same accounts, however, he also is allegedly one of the four or five greatest racehorses ever to look through a bridle.

What am I missing? What exactly has this obviously excellent colt accomplished in an 8-for-9 career that prompts even Time magazine to ask if he is the "greatest racehorse ever"?

The point here is not to denigrate an admirable soon-to-be champion but to question the level of superlatives surrounding him and the seemingly different standards used to define greatness in American and European racing.

As Europeans never tire of telling us, we Americans are admittedly simpleminded. When we talk about our greatest racehorses, we bolster our arguments with crass things like facts and figures.

We don't say that Secretariat had a lovely way of going and a magnificent turn of foot - we note that he set track records in all three legs of the Triple Crown and won the Belmont by 31 lengths. We recall that Spectacular Bid set six track records while winning 26 of 30 starts and that no one even showed up to run against him in his final career start. More recently, we cite Rachel Alexandra's 2009 campaign as perhaps the best ever by a 3-year-old filly, with 19- and 20-length victory margins and three triumphs against colts in Grade 1 races...

ghostyapper
10-10-2009, 11:05 PM
Crist is a buffoon and he proves it with each column. His terrible argument about using his 2 length victory against him is as stupid and inconsequential as when he argued that the woodward field (minus rachel)was better than the traver's one based on each horses lifetime wins and earnings.

Stick to playing pick 6's and stop writing columns.

CincyHorseplayer
10-10-2009, 11:46 PM
Crist is a buffoon and he proves it with each column. His terrible argument about using his 2 length victory against him is as stupid and inconsequential as when he argued that the woodward field (minus rachel)was better than the traver's one based on each horses lifetime wins and earnings.

Stick to playing pick 6's and stop writing columns.


Stick to betting against winners(til they're posthumous),so we can see how bitter a person can possibly get on here!!:cool:

Robert Fischer
10-10-2009, 11:52 PM
Crist is cool. He is usually somewhat entertaining. His cult following on the internet makes him an easy target for some, but I like him

cj
10-11-2009, 12:03 AM
Crist is a buffoon and he proves it with each column. His terrible argument about using his 2 length victory against him is as stupid and inconsequential as when he argued that the woodward field (minus rachel)was better than the traver's one based on each horses lifetime wins and earnings.

Stick to playing pick 6's and stop writing columns.

This post alone (not that we didn't have evidence already) clearly points to a buffoon.

classhandicapper
10-11-2009, 12:42 AM
I find it hard to believe that sophisticated handicappers are still looking at beaten lengths or final times when comparing dirt and turf horses. It's apples to oranges.

Great dirt horses often torch all the other horses in a race when they either go to the lead and cut very fast fractions or make their winning move. That leads to huge winning margins. We've seen numerous examples of that with Rachel against fillies all year. On turf and synthetic (especially in Europe), horses gallop along until the last few furlongs and then turn it on in the last 2-3 furlongs. You simply can't outrun other very good horses by a huge margin in that short a time span - especially if you are a deeper closer.

What you are looking for is a horse with an excellent turn of foot, the ability to overcome an especially slow pace, the ability to overcome some traffic that delayed the horse's run etc... and still consistently get the job done against other very good horses.

I don't have the turf handicapping skills or knowledge of some of the other great turfers to determine if this latest sensation is the greatest of all time, but I am certain he is one of them despite the relatively small winning margins. What I have seen visually and in his record alone is already enough to determine that much. Maybe he's a little hyped, but even if he is, he's still dynamite.

Valuist
10-11-2009, 02:02 AM
He certainly didn't have to overcome a slow pace in the Arc. The field was extremely strung out....we don't need fractionals to see it was a fast pace.

PaceAdvantage
10-11-2009, 02:04 AM
Crist is a buffoon and he proves it with each column.A particularly harsh statement...you almost sound jealous...:lol:

He's nowhere near as buffoonish as the one who endlessly proclaims that by not stepping out and going that extra HALF furlong, Rachel negates her place in history.

WinterTriangle
10-11-2009, 06:10 AM
On turf and synthetic (especially in Europe), horses gallop along until the last few furlongs and then turn it on in the last 2-3 furlongs. You simply can't outrun other very good horses by a huge margin in that short a time span - especially if you are a deeper closer.

What you are looking for is a horse with an excellent turn of foot, the ability to overcome an especially slow pace, the ability to overcome some traffic that delayed the horse's run etc... and still consistently get the job done against other very good horses.

I don't have the turf handicapping skills or knowledge of some of the other great turfers to determine if this latest sensation is the greatest of all time, but I am certain he is one of them despite the relatively small winning margins. What I have seen visually and in his record alone is already enough to determine that much. Maybe he's a little hyped, but even if he is, he's still dynamite.

well said.

STS is consistent, gets the job done, and then does it again in the most presitigious race in Europe, against 11 Group One winners. And, considering his age, and his ability to stay in form for all these races.......

To find fault with him, as Crist did, on beaten lengths, esp. when as you say, it's not a biggie in turf racing (and certainly not in the Arc) is looking for an excuse to dunn the horse, IMHO.

Valuist, Manilla wasn't 8 for 8 or whatever...he didn't consistently beat the best horses in Europe, time and time again. The others mentioned who have run ITM in Arc, year after year, deserve accolade, but they didn't WIN. I dunno if STS is greater than Zarkava. I posted that photo of her leaping over her shadow at the finish line, she leaped up into the air like a jumper. When comparing horses of this magnitude, it's hard to come up with a clear 'best'. The year she ran the arc, she was certainly the best. :)

Java Gold@TFT
10-11-2009, 06:18 AM
Sea The Stars will go down as a great racehorse and deserving Champion but in my lifetime I thought Dancing Brave and Dubai Millenium both won more impressively from just a visual standpoint and not times or beaten lengths. Never saw Sea Bird or Brigadier Gerard so I have no comparison there.

overthehill
10-11-2009, 07:27 AM
I agree with you. I never thought lengths of winning was of much consequence in turf racing. back in the day i used to see frequent head wins on the turf where it looked like the horse took the lead and started to ease himself up, i never saw that on the dirt. what impress me on grass is when a horse makes his move how fast he is running relative to the other horses, and how good a field it was in . STS left the rest of the field for dead when he made his move. once he passed the two leaders the race was over. the margin of victory was meaningless. Of course its impossible to say whether STS is as good or better than Secretariat, Spectacular Bid, But my guess is he is in that class. I would love to see the horse compete again.

Canarsie
10-11-2009, 09:27 AM
I'm staying out of this argument :lol: but here's the link.

http://www.drf.com/drfNewsArticle.do?NID=107968&subs=0&arc=0

Of course DRF membership (free) is required

Murph
10-11-2009, 09:30 AM
Great column by Steven Crist in Sunday's DRF. I have the hard copy so no link to post but to paraphrase,

Sign in requested. Crist column Posted 10/9/2009, 5:36 pm
(http://www.drf.com/drfNewsArticle.do?NID=107968&subs=0&arc=0)
No sign in for Crist blog (http://cristblog.drf.com/). Interesting BC prep article and charts.

OTM Al
10-11-2009, 11:39 AM
I really like Steve and think he's an excellent writer, but felt this column was a bit of a dud. Happens. Look forward to what he has to say next week.

Steve R
10-11-2009, 12:36 PM
An excerpt:

By all overseas accounts and even to an American eye that has seen him only on tape, Sea the Stars is clearly an outstanding racehorse. By most of those same accounts, however, he also is allegedly one of the four or five greatest racehorses ever to look through a bridle.

What am I missing? What exactly has this obviously excellent colt accomplished in an 8-for-9 career that prompts even Time magazine to ask if he is the "greatest racehorse ever"?

The point here is not to denigrate an admirable soon-to-be champion but to question the level of superlatives surrounding him and the seemingly different standards used to define greatness in American and European racing.

As Europeans never tire of telling us, we Americans are admittedly simpleminded. When we talk about our greatest racehorses, we bolster our arguments with crass things like facts and figures.

We don't say that Secretariat had a lovely way of going and a magnificent turn of foot - we note that he set track records in all three legs of the Triple Crown and won the Belmont by 31 lengths. We recall that Spectacular Bid set six track records while winning 26 of 30 starts and that no one even showed up to run against him in his final career start. More recently, we cite Rachel Alexandra's 2009 campaign as perhaps the best ever by a 3-year-old filly, with 19- and 20-length victory margins and three triumphs against colts in Grade 1 races...

Mr. Crist's logic is pretty weak and I guess he really doesn't understand European racing. This year's edition of the Arc was clearly one of the most memorable in history. Sea The Stars had a horrendous trip and was bottled up most of the way. His agility coming through a small opening was the sign of a superior athlete (in the tradition of a Seattle Slew or Sunday Silence, for example). He won very easily while being taken in hand in the last 50 yards. He defeated close to a dozen Grade 1 SWs including several classic winners. If margins of victory and number of track records were the measure of greatness then horse like Affirmed, Buckpasser and Forego would fall right off the page.

When Seattle Slew lost the JCGC to Exceller by a nose some called it his greatest race ever. It is the race itself, not winning margins that determine the quality of the winner. By Crist's logic, Zenyatta is pretty ordinary since she rarely wins by more than a couple of lengths if that much, and against uniformly inferior competition.

As usual, Crist is blowing hot air. He needs to overcome his America-centric view of racing. I guess he's one of those who could never accept the fact that Raven's Pass and Henrythenavigator may actually have been better horses than Curlin.

cj
10-11-2009, 12:49 PM
As usual, Crist is blowing hot air. He needs to overcome his America-centric view of racing. I guess he's one of those who could never accept the fact that Raven's Pass and Henrythenavigator may actually have been better horses than Curlin ON RUBBER.

Tidied that up for you.

Steve R
10-11-2009, 02:56 PM
Tidied that up for you.
The ON RUBBER qualification is your opinion only. Racing Post Ratings paint a different picture. These are the RPRs for the five races through the BC Classic for the three horses.

Curlin: 126-115-122-123-122 (the 115 is on grass, the last 122 is on "rubber" as are the last figures for the European horses)
Raven's Pass: 119-124-123-131-128
Henrythenavigator: 128-125-120-128-125

The Racing Post guys are the same ones that gave Curlin a 131 for the DWC so it's not likely they were biased against him when he returned to the US. He just wasn't as good as he had been during that short stretch between the 2007 Classic and the 2008 World Cup. His decline as a 4yo is also captured in his speed figures. I stand by my assertion that the Europeans were superior individuals.

cj
10-11-2009, 03:11 PM
The ON RUBBER qualification is your opinion only. Racing Post Ratings paint a different picture. These are the RPRs for the five races through the BC Classic for the three horses.

Curlin: 126-115-122-123-122 (the 115 is on grass, the last 122 is on "rubber" as are the last figures for the European horses)
Raven's Pass: 119-124-123-131-128
Henrythenavigator: 128-125-120-128-125

The Racing Post guys are the same ones that gave Curlin a 131 for the DWC so it's not likely they were biased against him when he returned to the US. He just wasn't as good as he had been during that short stretch between the 2007 Classic and the 2008 World Cup. His decline as a 4yo is also captured in his speed figures. I stand by my assertion that the Europeans were superior individuals.

We'll never really know, but I have never bought the "decline" theory. His races on turf and poly were surfaces he clearly, to my eye, didn't like. His dirt races after the DWC all had extreme pace scenarios (two very slow, one very, very fast) that contributed to his lower than usual numbers.

It is possible he declined, but simply looking at speed figures as proof is woefully inadequate.

the_fat_man
10-11-2009, 03:32 PM
We'll never really know, but I have never bought the "decline" theory. His races on turf and poly were surfaces he clearly, to my eye, didn't like. His dirt races after the DWC all had extreme pace scenarios (two very slow, one very, very fast) that contributed to his lower than usual numbers.

It is possible he declined, but simply looking at speed figures as proof is woefully inadequate.

Yeah, this is becoming an ongoing thing with all the novices that feel the need to voice their opinions. They're all armed with SOMEONE ELSE's figures and they just feel the need to express themselves.

To argue that Curlin DECLINED is really to miss the point. He ran very well both on the turf and poly. The setups just didn't go his way. There isn't a horse in training that overcomes the race flow and wins the Classic with a similar trip. In other words, he just RAN TOO SOON (and too wide). I mean, ****in' TIAGO ran 3rd in the race; which tells you how much it collapsed.

I just fail to understand why people just don't get this.

toetoe
10-11-2009, 03:38 PM
I really like Steve and think he's an excellent writer, but felt this column was a bit of a dud. Happens. Look forward to what he has to say next week.

Al,

I guess he didn't have his logic cap on. He's thinking like Mike Krukow, fergawdsakes. My problems with the screed:

* Crist claims that a victory by Sea the Stars on Astrodirt will prove nothing. I say it will prove that he's able to beat you on his own turf, and on your wax. Don't know how Crist feels about Zenyatta, but this argument militates against her greatness.

* Crist cites the dismal record of Arc winners in the B.C. Turf and Classic. Ergo, a win by Sea the Stars would prove his excellence, right ? Not to Crist; not sure how he did it, but he reasoned (again) that a B.C. Classic win would prove little or nothing. Maybe he's saying that winning the Arc is overrated ?

Crist also lambastes the decision to retire Sea the Stars at three.Good thing Rachel Alexandra is slated to run next year; otherwise her 2009 campaign would mean little, by Crist's logic.

Steve R
10-11-2009, 05:39 PM
Yeah, this is becoming an ongoing thing with all the novices that feel the need to voice their opinions. They're all armed with SOMEONE ELSE's figures and they just feel the need to express themselves.

To argue that Curlin DECLINED is really to miss the point. He ran very well both on the turf and poly. The setups just didn't go his way. There isn't a horse in training that overcomes the race flow and wins the Classic with a similar trip. In other words, he just RAN TOO SOON (and too wide). I mean, ****in' TIAGO ran 3rd in the race; which tells you how much it collapsed.

I just fail to understand why people just don't get this.
When you begin a discussion by suggesting those who take a particular position opposed to yours are "novices" and use "SOMEONE ELSE'S figures" it is apparent your opinions are useless, not to mention your demeanor being rude and ignorant.

I'm hardly a novice, having been in the business for 30 years and having been associated professionally with champions and Grade 1 winners in North America and Europe. I do my own figures, unrelated to any other figure methodology, and they have been published for many years.

I will go even further with regard to Curlin. Except for the four-race span between the 2007 JCGC and the 2008 DWC when his efforts approached the best we've seen recently, he was unexceptional and not nearly as good as many graded stakes quality horses we've seen in this decade. You can make all the excuses you like for him, but every one diminishes his reputation. He lost too many races because the "setups just didn't go his way."

In any case, MY figures, not SOMEONE ELSE'S, show a decline in ability from his high point in the 2007 JCGC and BC Classic, which doesn't miss any point at all. Others who measure such things independently, both in the US and the UK, seem to agree whether you do or not. If anyone has missed the point, it is certainly you.

classhandicapper
10-11-2009, 06:05 PM
Yeah, this is becoming an ongoing thing with all the novices that feel the need to voice their opinions. They're all armed with SOMEONE ELSE's figures and they just feel the need to express themselves.

To argue that Curlin DECLINED is really to miss the point. He ran very well both on the turf and poly. The setups just didn't go his way. There isn't a horse in training that overcomes the race flow and wins the Classic with a similar trip. In other words, he just RAN TOO SOON (and too wide). I mean, ****in' TIAGO ran 3rd in the race; which tells you how much it collapsed.

I just fail to understand why people just don't get this.

I agree with CJ about the impact the extreme paces had on several of his dirt races as a 4YO. I think he was better than he looked based on speed figures.

I agree with you about the Classic.

IMO he ran well in the Classic. He made a wide premature move that might have won on dirt, but usually doesn't get the money on the Pro Ride track (especially that day). The winner also ran very well. He wasn't far behind him and made a similar move.

I don't think his turf race was of the same quality as his dirt races, but the speed figure is irrelevant.

Bobzilla
10-11-2009, 06:31 PM
When you begin a discussion by suggesting those who take a particular position opposed to yours are "novices" and use "SOMEONE ELSE'S figures" it is apparent your opinions are useless, not to mention your demeanor being rude and ignorant.

I'm hardly a novice, having been in the business for 30 years and having been associated professionally with champions and Grade 1 winners in North America and Europe. I do my own figures, unrelated to any other figure methodology, and they have been published for many years.

I will go even further with regard to Curlin. Except for the four-race span between the 2007 JCGC and the 2008 DWC when his efforts approached the best we've seen recently, he was unexceptional and not nearly as good as many graded stakes quality horses we've seen in this decade. You can make all the excuses you like for him, but every one diminishes his reputation. He lost too many races because the "setups just didn't go his way."

In any case, MY figures, not SOMEONE ELSE'S, show a decline in ability from his high point in the 2007 JCGC and BC Classic, which doesn't miss any point at all. Others who measure such things independently, both in the US and the UK, seem to agree whether you do or not. If anyone has missed the point, it is certainly you.


I agree with much of what you wrote in the first paragraph, all the more reason it's disappointing that you were unable to afford Steven Crist the same professional courtesy you would expect yourself. You're entitled to your own opinion over what you see as Crist's "American-Centric" point of view on racing, but to suggest that he would be so petty as to base his views on the results of last year's Breeders' Cup Classic is ridiculous and reflects on your own character as well. There are many turf writers and figure makers in America who hold opposing views on Curlin's form throughout his 2008 season as well as his BC experience on the SA Pro-Ride . I would venture to say that none of them have lost any respect or admiration for one another and still regard one another in high esteem. For the record, both Crist and Andy Beyer gave out Ravens Pass as their plays for last year's Classic. I would seriously doubt his thinking on the role of AWSs in NA comes from sour grapes.

Steve R
10-11-2009, 09:04 PM
I agree with much of what you wrote in the first paragraph, all the more reason it's disappointing that you were unable to afford Steven Crist the same professional courtesy you would expect yourself. You're entitled to your own opinion over what you see as Crist's "American-Centric" point of view on racing, but to suggest that he would be so petty as to base his views on the results of last year's Breeders' Cup Classic is ridiculous and reflects on your own character as well. There are many turf writers and figure makers in America who hold opposing views on Curlin's form throughout his 2008 season as well as his BC experience on the SA Pro-Ride . I would venture to say that none of them have lost any respect or admiration for one another and still regard one another in high esteem. For the record, both Crist and Andy Beyer gave out Ravens Pass as their plays for last year's Classic. I would seriously doubt his thinking on the role of AWSs in NA comes from sour grapes.
That you think I suggested Crist based his views on the results of last year's Breeders' Cup Classic reflects more on your ability to read than than it does my character. The point made was that Crist's suggestion that Sea The Stars is overhyped was completely illogical and consistent with the American preoccupation for irrelevant statistical minutiae. He is, after all, the guy who introduced hundredths of a second pace lines into the Form while retaining the logically inconsistent concept of lengths behind. That's like dividing 5 by 2 and giving the answer to six decimal places. At least the folks in Dubai provide the actual splits of every horse in hundredths of second in their results. I've known Crist and Beyer for over 20 years, and neither one has a clue about the basics of scientific method. So when Crist uses a 2-length victory in the Arc to downgrade Sea The Stars, he is simply revealing his inability to understand in what context that victory was achieved. But it doesn't matter anyway. Sea The Stars will be ranked by both Timeform and the Racing Post as among the half dozen best to ever to race in Europe. I've been watching races for decades and I have no hesitancy about putting Sea The Stars in that group. Crist's "American-centric" opinion is of no consequence.

Steve R
10-11-2009, 09:21 PM
[snip]...For the record, both Crist and Andy Beyer gave out Ravens Pass as their plays for last year's Classic...[snip]
And about last year's plays, according to Crist's Saturday pick-6 BC blog (http://cristblog.drf.com/crist/2008/10/bc-saturday-live.html), Raven's Pass was one of six horses in his "C" group for the classic with his lone "A" pick being Curlin, his only single "A" horse on the entire card. There were no "B" horses for the Classic, which there were for every other Saturday race. Including Raven's Pass among seven of the starting twelve is hardly a stroke of genius considering he was second choice on the morning line. If Crist highlighted Raven's Pass as his primary pick, I would like to see the citation.

Bobzilla
10-11-2009, 10:38 PM
Mr. Crist's logic is pretty weak and I guess he really doesn't understand European racing. This year's edition of the Arc was clearly one of the most memorable in history. Sea The Stars had a horrendous trip and was bottled up most of the way. His agility coming through a small opening was the sign of a superior athlete (in the tradition of a Seattle Slew or Sunday Silence, for example). He won very easily while being taken in hand in the last 50 yards. He defeated close to a dozen Grade 1 SWs including several classic winners. If margins of victory and number of track records were the measure of greatness then horse like Affirmed, Buckpasser and Forego would fall right off the page.

When Seattle Slew lost the JCGC to Exceller by a nose some called it his greatest race ever. It is the race itself, not winning margins that determine the quality of the winner. By Crist's logic, Zenyatta is pretty ordinary since she rarely wins by more than a couple of lengths if that much, and against uniformly inferior competition.

As usual, Crist is blowing hot air. He needs to overcome his America-centric view of racing. I guess he's one of those who could never accept the fact that Raven's Pass and Henrythenavigator may actually have been better horses than Curlin.


I had no problem comprehending this post, in fact I'm not entirely in disagreement with the first two paragraphs. The last paragraph strikes me as gratuitous and unbecoming. There was absolutely no value added to your otherwise solid post by the addition of this paragraph. For whatever reason you felt the need to take a cheap shot and it did nothing to strengthen your argument.

You're right, Crist did not use RP as a primary horse in his P6. My memory didn't serve correctly in that instance and I stand corrected.

cj
10-11-2009, 11:02 PM
Nick Mordin, a very respected handicapper from overseas, seems to agree with Crist.

http://www.nickmordin.com/france.htm

NYPlayer
10-12-2009, 12:21 AM
... Sea The Stars will be ranked by both Timeform and the Racing Post as among the half dozen best to ever to race in Europe. I've been watching races for decades and I have no hesitancy about putting Sea The Stars in that group. Crist's "American-centric" opinion is of no consequence.

Actually, I think Crist would agree that Sea the Stars is among the very best horses to race in Europe. As far as being one of the best thoroughbreds of all time, that is an entirely different assertion; one that was the subject of a recent article in Time Magazine. That is the assertion Crist does not agree with.

If Sea the Stars is the best, then Zarkava surely can't be far behind. She was a perfect 7 for 7, won the Arc and won the Prix Vermeille in record time after stumbling and losing about twelve lengths.

So in two years we've seen two outstanding "best horses of all time" to come galloping along European meadows. It's far away from Bluegrass Country and Roses in May.