Great race by Zenyatta

[tucker6]

I thought she'd have an off day and that Cocoa Beach had her number, but she won with ease. :ThmbUp:

[jognlope]

Wow there are no words. Just wish I'd had the access to ESPN classic to see the whole grand show.

[lamboguy]

got to love that race, one of her best

[tucker6]

Wow there are no words. Just wish I'd had the access to ESPN classic to see the whole grand show.
Hung back by five throughout, and when they hit the stretch, she blew by the field. It was an easy win. It was like taking a gun to a knife fight.

[Tom]

Wow there are no words. Just wish I'd had the access to ESPN classic to see the whole grand show.

Too late now, but someone not named earl (:D) posted this link:

http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/showthread.php?t=62528

[tzipi]

Good race,I just HATE she's beating the same exact horses every single race. Yeah we know she's better than these same girls. Let's go on to harder stuff guys. Let's see some racin!

[MNslappy]

^ thank you

[bks]

I wish Lethal Heat had been clear into the stretch. She got bottled up and would have been a length in front as they straightened out.

I say this, only because I would have gotten to see Zenyatta run for an extra 1/16th. Oh well.

I've never seen a jockey look so small or inconsequential on a horse as Smith does on her. It's uncanny.

[46zilzal]

Dog slow pace and overcame it with ease.

[tucker6]

Did I hear that right?? The talking heads said the owners of Zenyatta would rather have an undefeated record than be HOY. The context was whether she would run the Distaff or the Classic. Isn't the point of "sports" to be the greatest at what you do?? That would mean she needs to run in the Classic.

[tucker6]

I wish Lethal Heat had been clear into the stretch. She got bottled up and would have been a length in front as they straightened out.

I say this, only because I would have gotten to see Zenyatta run for an extra 1/16th. Oh well.

I've never seen a jockey look so small or inconsequential on a horse as Smith does on her. It's uncanny.
Did you hear him after the race?? He said Zenyatta could hold her own in the Classic, but when he was asked if she could win against STS, he hedged big time.

[tzipi]

Well if he thinks she could hold her own against top horses including boys why is he running her in the same place against the same exact horses??

I really don't get the hype. Yeah SHE'S good against those horses,no doubt. But I mean cmon enough with the talk of who you can "take down",when you have'nt even tried.

Good race though Zenyatta. Good girl.

[Show Me the Wire]

Did I hear that right?? The talking heads said the owners of Zenyatta would rather have an undefeated record than be HOY. The context was whether she would run the Distaff or the Classic. Isn't the point of "sports" to be the greatest at what you do?? That would mean she needs to run in the Classic.

She is a horse. She probably thinks she is the greatest. She doesn't even know Rachael exists.

As for the owners, it is for ROI. ROI on the track and ROI as a broodmare. Undefeated is more meaningfull than trying to prove she is the "greatest".

First and foremost this is a business, and the entertainment is secondary. I vote with the connections, focus on staying undefeated.

[WinterTriangle]

Isn't the point of "sports" to be the greatest at what you do?? That would mean she needs to run in the Classic.

So, being the best means winning the Classic?

If that is true, then all the other horses who aren't running in it, or don't win it, aren't great?

[Cratos]

I thought she'd have an off day and that Cocoa Beach had her number, but she won with ease. :ThmbUp:

Zenyatta’s performance in the Lady Secret was tremendous and she and her connections should receive the highest of kudos.

However if she is being prepared for the BC Classic in 3 weeks why not the 1 1/8 mile Goodwood against the “boys” as oppose to the 1 1/16 mile Lady Secret against the “little sisters of the poor.”

[OntheRail]

Zen's a fantastic animal.... but the race was a little anticlimactic. Kinda like fishing in a barrel. The excitement of the unknown was just not there :sleeping: .

I hope they test her brilliance in the classic. She shines but that would really add the luster and glow to her. :jump:

[cj]

I've seen a lot of horses run great races over the years. That was not a great race. I think to have a great race you need at least two horses that might win.

[Steve 'StatMan']

However if she is being prepared for the BC Classic in 3 weeks why not the 1 1/8 mile Goodwood against the “boys” as oppose to the 1 1/16 mile Lady Secret against the “little sisters of the poor.”

So she can get 60% of their purse and keep the little sisters poor. :D

Good point Cratos, makes one wonder. If it's the perfect record and good money, they'll keep her facing females. If they want the BC Classic and the biggest money and accolades, this year they need to do more than just beat other females on synthetics. Darn good horse - Nice problem to have when they're winning and bringing in huge money and notoriety.

[classhandicapper]

I am probably the only one on earth that thinks this, but if I owned her, I might consider taking a shot in the Classic if it was on dirt, but I think she has almost no shot on synthetic.

If you look at the top dirt horses she would basically have to beat Rachel Alexander, Summer Bird, and maybe Colonel John if you want to be generous. The way RA runs, she would almost certainly be part of a tough pace at 10F. IMO, that would make her quite vulnerable given she almost lost to Macho Again at 9F after getting involved early. Summer Bird would probably be very difficult to beat, but not impossible. We have seen what Zenyatta can do on dirt, but we've never seen what she can do at 10F or with a fast pace. She might be a terror. I think at a minimum she'd be a strong contender in that spot.

If you look at the Classic on synthetic, horses like Summer Bird and Colonel John are going to be the least of her problems. There's going to be a whole slew of dynamite European turf horses that are sure to come after last year's Classic and today's Goodward. Depending on how many come, she'll probably need a great race just to hit the board.

The Classic is a monstrously difficult spot for any filly ever. But if ever a filly could pull it off, it would be this year if the race was on DIRT because the dirt horses are so weak.

[statik27]

I am probably the only one on earth that thinks this, but if I owned her, I might consider taking a shot in the Classic if it was on dirt, but I think she has almost no shot on synthetic.

If you look at the top dirt horses she would basically have to beat Rachel Alexander, Summer Bird, and maybe Colonel John if you want to be generous. The way RA runs, she would almost certainly be part of a tough pace at 10F. IMO, that would make her quite vulnerable given she almost lost to Macho Again at 9F after getting involved early. Summer Bird would probably be very difficult to beat, but not impossible. We have seen what Zenyatta can do on dirt, but we've never seen what she can do at 10F or with a fast pace. She might be a terror. I think at a minimum she'd be a strong contender in that spot.

If you look at the Classic on synthetic, horses like Summer Bird and Colonel John are going to be the least of her problems. There's going to be a whole slew of dynamite European turf horses that are sure to come after last year's Classic and today's Goodward. Depending on how many come, she'll probably need a great race just to hit the board.

The Classic is a monstrously difficult spot for any filly ever. But if ever a filly could pull it off, it would be this year if the race was on DIRT because the dirt horses are so weak.

I think you have some valid points, but I'm of the mind that Zenyatta might be the US's best hope of a win in the classic. Sure Summer Bird is a nice colt, but don't forget, Salder is a good trainer and he thought this colt needed the dirt.
I was seriously unimpressed by the Goodwood today and the older division in general has been abysmal, so who's left for this side of the pond? I suppose Gio Ponti? If we want even a shot at winning the classic this year, Zenyatta may be the only one that can do it.

[classhandicapper]

I think you have some valid points, but I'm of the mind that Zenyatta might be the US's best hope of a win in the classic. Sure Summer Bird is a nice colt, but don't forget, Salder is a good trainer and he thought this colt needed the dirt.
I was seriously unimpressed by the Goodwood today and the older division in general has been abysmal, so who's left for this side of the pond? I suppose Gio Ponti? If we want even a shot at winning the classic this year, Zenyatta may be the only one that can do it.

I agree that Summer Bird would be at a disadvantage on synthetic and the rest of the CA males are nothing special (though I think there is still some shot of Colonel John running a new top). But if half dozen Europeans come over, that's still going to be a very strong field anyway.

[plainolebill]

All I can say is she did it again. Like a rerun of a favorite movie, I know how it will turn out but I enjoy it just the same.

I don't think any of the horses in the Goodwood, other than possibly the winner, have any shot in the Classic. Tip of the hat to R's Kid, but not likely. Colonel John is just too slow and hasn't improved one bit in the last year.

[Imriledup]

I was a HUGE Zenyatta fan very early on, i made some good scores on her when she was over even money, sent it in on her at Oaklawn, grabbed my 6-5 on her a few times before she became famous.

At some point though, i got a little less excited to see her run. I just got to the point where i'm less and less of a fan and less and less of a fan of the connections.

I'm not sure why i feel that i need to see her race vs the Boys to love her again. Its pretty silly i know, i'm just not sure why i'm holding it against the connections for running her where she has an amazing chance to win. I might do the same thing if i owned her, take the free money, don't extend her at all.

I wish i understood the human emotion inside me that's 'mad' at the entire situation and just wish she'd get it over with and race against some of the best in the world.

I have no reason to not love this horse and her connections unconditionally, yet i'm in this tug of war with myself.

[Java Gold@TFT]

I truly like watching her but I am with riledup on her racing path this year. I keep reading articles that say that Moss is a true sportsman and Jackson isn't. If so, why has she skipped the Hollywood Gold Cup, Pac Classic and Goodwood in favor of rounding up the usual suspects? Did they really think she would get hurt running on a muddy track at CD in May but soemhow think there is no risk running at Del Mar or Oak Tree? Wouldn't she have been favored yesterday if she ran in the Goodwood with that field? She will not be in the Classic, period. They have no intent on doing anything other than breaking Personal Ensign's undefeated streak. Just to me if she doesn't run in the Classic she gets a Barry Bonds type asterisk in the history book.

[WinterTriangle]

Somebody on here in another topic noted that " the lowest winning Beyer Figure for the BC Classic since 1990 is 110 with an average of 116.5."

Who would that include? Not CJ, not Zenyatta, not Einstein, not Gio Ponti or Summer bird on SA poly?


I don't know what beyer figures would be for Spanish Moon, rip van winkle, or mastercraftsman, Kite Wood, etc. Spanish Moon nobody talks about, some of these euros will be tough?



Prescious Passion? he's got a 109 Bris. What about Quality Road?



edit: indeed beyer numbers checked and:
Breeders' Cup Classic - 116.53

Nobody from the Goodwood will even hit the board, IMHO. We are talking finding an Easy Goer here.

[Tampa Russ]

I certainly enjoy waching her run, but I must say that the race was not all that exciting. I almost have to wonder if Zen is feeling the same way. She makes the bold move and grabs the lead and then just enjoyingly taunts them the rest of the way home. However, I thought she was pissed that she couldn't run around another time and really enjoy herself.

It's like I'm watching this giraffe of a mare, with no blinkers so she can see everything, and she's just chuckling at the competition. But what she really wants to do is be allowed to show us a good belly laugh.

In the end we get back-to-back synthocrap BC's, and we get no RA vs. Zen matchup. :mad:

[classhandicapper]

Somebody on here in another topic noted that " the lowest winning Beyer Figure for the BC Classic since 1990 is 110 with an average of 116.5."

Who would that include? Not CJ, not Zenyatta, not Einstein, not Gio Ponti or Summer bird on SA poly?

I don't know what beyer figures would be for Spanish Moon, rip van winkle, or mastercraftsman, Kite Wood, etc. Spanish Moon nobody talks about, some of these euros will be tough?

Prescious Passion? he's got a 109 Bris. What about Quality Road?

edit: indeed beyer numbers checked and:
Breeders' Cup Classic - 116.53

Nobody from the Goodwood will even hit the board, IMHO. We are talking finding an Easy Goer here.

I think if you ran the Classic on synthetic every year, the average winning Beyer would fall just like the average winning Beyer for the Turf Classic and Turf Mile is lower than for the BC Classic even though so many great Europeans have shipped in.

There is a fundamental difference between turf and dirt racing that makes speed figures as a measure of relative ability almost useless. I'd like to see more synthetic racing, but IMO the evidence suggests that the same is true for synthetic racing also, although perhaps not to same degree as turf. Beyer tried tweaking the synthetic figures, but I am not convinced he used the right approach because it's a matter of pace. A one size fits all adjustment doesn't cut it because pace is a variable.

I'm not saying the CA horses are very good, but I suspect they aren't as bad as they look on Beyer figures either.

[lamboguy]

i know it wasn't the greatest field of all times, but she did have a little different running style this time. she was much closer to the pace, maybe by design. lets face it against higher level horses she cannot afford to sit at the back of the pack and watch the other horses beat their brains in and just run right by them when asked. she proved that she has more guts and more to her after today.

[CincyHorseplayer]

I was a HUGE Zenyatta fan very early on, i made some good scores on her when she was over even money, sent it in on her at Oaklawn, grabbed my 6-5 on her a few times before she became famous.

At some point though, i got a little less excited to see her run. I just got to the point where i'm less and less of a fan and less and less of a fan of the connections.

I'm not sure why i feel that i need to see her race vs the Boys to love her again. Its pretty silly i know, i'm just not sure why i'm holding it against the connections for running her where she has an amazing chance to win. I might do the same thing if i owned her, take the free money, don't extend her at all.

I wish i understood the human emotion inside me that's 'mad' at the entire situation and just wish she'd get it over with and race against some of the best in the world.

I have no reason to not love this horse and her connections unconditionally, yet i'm in this tug of war with myself.

Couldn't have said it better:ThmbUp:

[OTM Al]

If she is to run in the Classic, she will need to not fall so far back so perhaps this was practise, though they weren't burning it up in the front either. The second team of Mastercraftsman and Rip Van Winkle will both beat her if she spots the field too much. Frankly I think Dar Re Mi would give her a good run too, though that one may be taking on the boys on the green.

[joanied]

Well if he thinks she could hold her own against top horses including boys why is he running her in the same place against the same exact horses??

I really don't get the hype. Yeah SHE'S good against those horses,no doubt. But I mean cmon enough with the talk of who you can "take down",when you have'nt even tried.

Good race though Zenyatta. Good girl.

He meant Mike Smith...and he can't decide where she runs!!

[joanied]

Seems to me most, if not all of us are kinda in the same boat...we want to see Zenyatta do more...because we know she can.
As for her race yesterday...first of all, I never, never get tired of watching her strut her stuff before the race...she just shines and no one watching her little dance steps can help but smile...
when I saw the first 1/4 fraction, I was happy to see Mike take her into it more than usual...none of them were going to back up...I got a bit concerned as they entered the turn, it looked like Mike was gonna take her inside, then he kinda hesitated before taking her out...her stretch run was brilliant...as always...I was a little surprised that Cocoa Beach didn't fire better, and wonder if they'll run her in the Distaff...
anyway...she gave me the same thrill :jump: she always does...and still brought tears to my eyes...but...I have to agree with some of you, Imriledup put it into words pretty well...
yesterday she really looked as if she was saying, after the race...is that all there is...can't I run some more...I can do more and I want to...
you could just see it in her face, that she wanted to do more.

It's such a shame her connections have played it so close to the vest...especially because they know she is so much better...they are doing her a great injustice by playing it safe...and I feel frustrated and angry at Moss & Sherriff's...
now, will they go for the Classic...I doubt it...but we can still hope. Knowing that she's being sent to the breeding shed just makes it harder to deal with the fact she's gonna run in the Distaff...the field will be the toughest she's faced since last year's Distaff....yet, it will feel anti-climatic after it's all said & done.

Zenyatta is a once in a lifetime mare...I feel priveledged to have seen her, honored and fortunate...yet, her connections, by design, have left me, and everyone else that loves her, with a huge void in their hearts & minds...just what could Zenyatta have accomplished if she'd been allowed to show her very best.
We'll never know.

:jump: :jump: :jump: Zenyatta:jump: :jump: :jump:

[horses721]

Good race,I just HATE she's beating the same exact horses every single race. Yeah we know she's better than these same girls. Let's go on to harder stuff guys. Let's see some racin!

Amen
It amazes me how people get excited about her when she doesn't compete against better competition and defeats the same inferior fields every race.

[Cat Thief]

There is no doubt she "thinks she is the greatest" She has the greatest personality. Love her little dances and prances. She seems to know she is putting on a show for everyone

[CBedo]

Seems to me most, if not all of us are kinda in the same boat...we want to see Zenyatta do more...because we know she can.
This does not include me. Maybe she can do more, maybe she can't. I'd have to lean towards can't since I have to trust where her connections place her, and they obviously don't seem to believe she can win doing anything more that beat up on the same tomato cans over and over. If they believed in her, why haven't they tried anything new or run her for some bigger purses?

I see people talking about how she ran a great race yesterday for a couple reasons which I disagree with. One, she changed her running style. She did not change her style; the pace was just so slow she found herself up closer than normal. Two, she was able to close against a very slow pace. Usually, a slow pace means the front runners have more energy to finish stronger, but as I've said about a couple of her recent races, when a slow pace is the function of slow horses, then guess what, they finish slow as well, which doesn't disadvantage the closer with significantly higher ability overall.

She's great to watch, and she's very good, but in my opinion, she's not great.

[statik27]

Amen
It amazes me how people get excited about her when she doesn't compete against better competition and defeats the same inferior fields every race.

This is the stuff that drives me nuts.

The only reason these fillies look inferior is because Zenyatta has handled them with distain for the last 2 years. She's just that much better then them.

Take Lethal Heat who finished second yesterday. She's a multiple graded stakes winner, beat males as a 3yo and finished 2nd against a fast race horse Bold Cheiftan, in her last start in the Cal Cup Classic. Another filly AllIcansayiswow, ran a good race against males in the Del Mar mile yesterday. Life is Sweet is a grade one winner and finished 3rd in the Hollywood Gold cup, but against Zenyatta they are all no where.

She's cleaned up the west coast, of course these fillies records aren't good against her. But if she'd been on the east coast it would be the same story. Now is it sad that she has only run once out of california, of course, but her connections have done what they thought was best for her and I can't question that.

[Steve R]

This is the stuff that drives me nuts.

The only reason these fillies look inferior is because Zenyatta has handled them with distain for the last 2 years. She's just that much better then them.

Take Lethal Heat who finished second yesterday. She's a multiple graded stakes winner, beat males as a 3yo and finished 2nd against a fast race horse Bold Cheiftan, in her last start in the Cal Cup Classic. Another filly AllIcansayiswow, ran a good race against males in the Del Mar mile yesterday. Life is Sweet is a grade one winner and finished 3rd in the Hollywood Gold cup, but against Zenyatta they are all no where.

She's cleaned up the west coast, of course these fillies records aren't good against her. But if she'd been on the east coast it would be the same story. Now is it sad that she has only run once out of california, of course, but her connections have done what they thought was best for her and I can't question that.
You can argue all you like about her connections doing what is best for her, but without any inconvenience she could have tried a classic distance and she could have challenged the best older males California has to offer. The connections chose not to. That suggests to me they had concerns about her ability to go longer and to step outside her divisional comfort zone. At this point, for all her accomplishments she doesn't meet the standard of greatness defined by mares like Personal Ensign, Lady's Secret, Shuvee and Twilight Tear all of which won beyond 9f and all of which beat males. Zenyatta is an excellent, consistent mare over a narrow range of conditions but that's it IMO. I won't speculate on what she might have done elsewhere. I can only judge her on what she actually did.

[Tom]

What is all this crap about longer than 9 furlongs?
What's next, hurdles?

[joanied]

This is the stuff that drives me nuts.

The only reason these fillies look inferior is because Zenyatta has handled them with distain for the last 2 years. She's just that much better then them.

Take Lethal Heat who finished second yesterday. She's a multiple graded stakes winner, beat males as a 3yo and finished 2nd against a fast race horse Bold Cheiftan, in her last start in the Cal Cup Classic. Another filly AllIcansayiswow, ran a good race against males in the Del Mar mile yesterday. Life is Sweet is a grade one winner and finished 3rd in the Hollywood Gold cup, but against Zenyatta they are all no where.

She's cleaned up the west coast, of course these fillies records aren't good against her. But if she'd been on the east coast it would be the same story. Now is it sad that she has only run once out of california, of course, but her connections have done what they thought was best for her and I can't question that.

:ThmbUp: :ThmbUp: :ThmbUp: (only part I can't agree with is questioning her connections...because I question them...they should have taken her out of CA....IMO)

[joanied]

What is all this crap about longer than 9 furlongs?
What's next, hurdles?

:ThmbUp: we get the same stuff said about Rachel...but, at least we can look forward to next year with RA...and bet she'll go longer.

[Show Me the Wire]

.... The connections chose not to. That suggests to me they had concerns about her ability to go longer and to step outside her divisional comfort zone. .....

The same logic applies to RA's original connections. They had no intentions to run her against the boys, either.

[Steve R]

The same logic applies to RA's original connections. They had no intentions to run her against the boys, either.
It's not the same at all. After the Oaks, Rachel Alexandra's original connections specifically said (on TV), as a matter of personal philosophy, that the TC was designed for colts. Her competitiveness was not even an issue in their mind. Obviously Jackson has a different philosophy. Zenyatta's connections have made no similar claim that graded stakes races for older horses are best left to males only. I have seen no indication that her connections feel it is inappropriate for fillies and mares to run against colts and older horses. Frankly, I think they have been unwilling to seriously risk breaking the undefeated win streak.

[Imriledup]

Would you guys think anything LESS of Z if she ran in the Classic and lost?


Or, would you love her more? Would you love the connections more?

[Steve R]

What is all this crap about longer than 9 furlongs?
What's next, hurdles?
There is no "crap" about longer than 9f. There is, however, a long history of racing (which you conveniently choose to ignore) that emphasizes versatility, classic distances and females competing against males as part of the package defining greatness. Scan the PPs of DRF's 35 greatest horses of the 20th century. It is no coincidence that EVERY male won at a classic distance and that EVERY female also won at a classic distance and (except for Ruffian) defeated males as well.

Rachel Alexandra has met those criteria. Zenyatta has not. Rachel Alexandra's speed figures and international rankings are superior to those of Zenyatta. If Zenyatta runs in the Classic and wins, I will gladly change my opinion. OTOH, if she does run and win, it will confirm her connections' earlier trepidation about stepping outside her comfort zone. The only reason they would run her in the Classic is because it is her last chance for HOY. I'm guessing they won't but I hope I'm wrong.

[Steve R]

Would you guys think anything LESS of Z if she ran in the Classic and lost?


Or, would you love her more? Would you love the connections more?
It would depend on how she ran. If she lost by a narrow margin coming on at the end or by just being nipped at the wire by a Sea The Stars or Mastercraftsman or Rip Van Winkle, I think her stature would be elevated. If she was noncompetitive, it would confirm her status as a short middle distance specialist who beat up on the same crew of second rank fillies and mares over and over again.

As for the connections, that would depend on how you assess their motivation. At this stage, I think a Classic run would be out of desperation to try and salvage a shot at HOY, not out of some sudden display of sportsmanship.

[horses721]

This is the stuff that drives me nuts.

The only reason these fillies look inferior is because Zenyatta has handled them with distain for the last 2 years. She's just that much better then them.

Take Lethal Heat who finished second yesterday. She's a multiple graded stakes winner, beat males as a 3yo and finished 2nd against a fast race horse Bold Cheiftan, in her last start in the Cal Cup Classic. Another filly AllIcansayiswow, ran a good race against males in the Del Mar mile yesterday. Life is Sweet is a grade one winner and finished 3rd in the Hollywood Gold cup, but against Zenyatta they are all no where.

She's cleaned up the west coast, of course these fillies records aren't good against her. But if she'd been on the east coast it would be the same story. Now is it sad that she has only run once out of california, of course, but her connections have done what they thought was best for her and I can't question that.

If she cleaned up on the East Coast, she would be competing against horses that are shipping in from places like Delaware, Kentucky, Maryland, New Jersey and Florida horses that ship up to compete in real dirt races on the east coast. (How do the Florida horses do in the sunshine millions challenge races versus the California horses?)

Where do they ship in from on the west coast? Los Alamitos, Turf Paradise or the great horses that fill the 5 horse fileds of Northern California?

Most importantly, why would you ship a dirt horse running at any of the east coast tracks that run on real dirt to race on a kitty litter track that has shown a great bias towards turf horses? They don't challenge Zenyatta in CA because it is not a dirt track. I applaud any dirt track horse owner that won't ship to CA to ride on a glorified turf course. To somewhat quote what you said in your final statement, " connections have done what they thought was best for (her) their horses and I can't question that".
I won't question any owner of a horse that has done well on dirt avoiding racing on the glorified turf course known as Santa Anita!
Finally, how many graded stakes winners has she defeated that have won a graded stakes outside of California(Take Lethal Heat who finished second yesterday. She's a multiple graded stakes winner, beat males as a 3yo and finished 2nd against a fast race horse Bold Cheiftan, in her last start in the Cal Cup Classic. Another filly AllIcansayiswow, ran a good race against males in the Del Mar mile yesterday. Life is Sweet is a grade one winner and finished 3rd in the Hollywood Gold cup, but against Zenyatta they are all no where)? Ginger Punch and???

[classhandicapper]

Can we all do one thing please?

If we want to debate the quality of the fields she's beat, the diversity of the distances she has won at, the diversity of surfaces she has won on, and whether she could beat very good colts, I'm all for it. But can we all stop using speed figures to compare horses on different surfaces.

The races develop differently and the paces are different. That tends to make the speed figures earned at the top of the scale different. IMHO the greatest turf horses in the world are clearly as good as the greatest dirt horses despite slower speed figures. I see no reason to think the same isn't true on synthetic. I think that almost necessitates qualitative comparisons.

[statik27]

If she cleaned up on the East Coast, she would be competing against horses that are shipping in from places like Delaware, Kentucky, Maryland, New Jersey and Florida horses that ship up to compete in real dirt races on the east coast. (How do the Florida horses do in the sunshine millions challenge races versus the California horses?)

Where do they ship in from on the west coast? Los Alamitos, Turf Paradise or the great horses that fill the 5 horse fileds of Northern California?

Most importantly, why would you ship a dirt horse running at any of the east coast tracks that run on real dirt to race on a kitty litter track that has shown a great bias towards turf horses? They don't challenge Zenyatta in CA because it is not a dirt track. I applaud any dirt track horse owner that won't ship to CA to ride on a glorified turf course. To somewhat quote what you said in your final statement, " connections have done what they thought was best for (her) their horses and I can't question that".
I won't question any owner of a horse that has done well on dirt avoiding racing on the glorified turf course known as Santa Anita!
Finally, how many graded stakes winners has she defeated that have won a graded stakes outside of California(Take Lethal Heat who finished second yesterday. She's a multiple graded stakes winner, beat males as a 3yo and finished 2nd against a fast race horse Bold Cheiftan, in her last start in the Cal Cup Classic. Another filly AllIcansayiswow, ran a good race against males in the Del Mar mile yesterday. Life is Sweet is a grade one winner and finished 3rd in the Hollywood Gold cup, but against Zenyatta they are all no where)? Ginger Punch and???

Your bias is clouding your judgement here. Ok so Zenyatta has only run out of California one time, but as you point out, she beat the champion older mare and BC winner Ginger Punch. Of course Z didn't just beat her, she didn't even know she was in the race because she passed her so quickly.

As for who has won graded stakes races outside of California? How about Ginger Punch, Hystericalady, Music Note, Tough Tiz's sis, Brownie Points, Bear Now, Carriage Trail, Sealy Hill, and Cocoa Beach. Six of these are Gr1 winners outside of California. Lemon Drop Mom is multiple gr1 placed and Santa Teresita lost by a head to swift temper in the sixty sails last year.

So yeah, to answer your question, the form holds up. A better question to ask yourself is not who's won outside of california? But who has faced Zenyatta and not looked like a glorified claimer? The answer is no one.

[Java Gold@TFT]

The real discussion is about this year - 2009. Zenyatta has started 4 times. She has beaten one G-I winner in those 4 starts, Life Is Sweet who Sheriffs actually took to the Hollywood Gold Cup while Moss told him no way. If you really want to go to the "Who did Rachel beat?" arena I will be glad to tell you. In her 8 races this year she won 5 g-I's, 2 G-II's and in those races she beat the winners of 2009 graded stakes races as follows (and I'm not counting anythng other than 2009 races) - 12 G=I's, 10 G-II's, and 8 G-III's. Just some elementary school math shows that she has accounted for winning 7 graded races while defeating the winners of 30 other graded races. 37 graded races is impressive no matter how you feel about the grading committee. If someone can compare those numbers to Zenyatta's opponents this year I will be very happy to read them.

[statik27]

The real discussion is about this year - 2009. Zenyatta has started 4 times. She has beaten one G-I winner in those 4 starts, Life Is Sweet who Sheriffs actually took to the Hollywood Gold Cup while Moss told him no way. If you really want to go to the "Who did Rachel beat?" arena I will be glad to tell you. In her 8 races this year she won 5 g-I's, 2 G-II's and in those races she beat the winners of 2009 graded stakes races as follows (and I'm not counting anythng other than 2009 races) - 12 G=I's, 10 G-II's, and 8 G-III's. Just some elementary school math shows that she has accounted for winning 7 graded races while defeating the winners of 30 other graded races. 37 graded races is impressive no matter how you feel about the grading committee. If someone can compare those numbers to Zenyatta's opponents this year I will be very happy to read them.

What are you talking about? No one said anything about RA and yes your right RA has been splendid this year and deserves to be HOY. I was reacting to the ascertion that Zenyatta has been beating up on cupcakes her whole career which is completely untrue. She just makes them look that way.

[CBedo]

Some have tried to assert that her race yesterday just wasn't as good as it looked. Some have tried to say that you can't knock the race based on the weak competition (I'm not one of them). So let's go at it another way when judging the quality of her win. I think she earned a monster Beyer speed figure of 97. The winner of the Goodwood earned a 106. Anyone still think she can compete in the Classic?

[Cratos]

The real discussion is about this year - 2009. Zenyatta has started 4 times. She has beaten one G-I winner in those 4 starts, Life Is Sweet who Sheriffs actually took to the Hollywood Gold Cup while Moss told him no way. If you really want to go to the "Who did Rachel beat?" arena I will be glad to tell you. In her 8 races this year she won 5 g-I's, 2 G-II's and in those races she beat the winners of 2009 graded stakes races as follows (and I'm not counting anythng other than 2009 races) - 12 G=I's, 10 G-II's, and 8 G-III's. Just some elementary school math shows that she has accounted for winning 7 graded races while defeating the winners of 30 other graded races. 37 graded races is impressive no matter how you feel about the grading committee. If someone can compare those numbers to Zenyatta's opponents this year I will be very happy to read them.

In 42 years of racing I have never seen such idiotic comparison. Rachel Alexandra unquestionably is an outstanding racehorse who just happens to be a filly that has beaten male horses in races that her gender never have before.

On the other hand, Zenyatta has been equally outstanding even though she has run only against female horses and her connections has limited her starts to the synthetic surfaces with the exception of one.

But to use graded races as a comparison is ridiculous because except for the Woodward, Rachel ran in G1 races limited to 3yos only. Zenyatta has run in G1 races limited to female horses only.

Please tell me with those limitations how one can make a rational comparison except if both run against each other (and that is not going to happen) or they run against same type G1 fields.

If they never meet each other in a race, this argument will continue ad infinitum without proof.

[ghostyapper]

What are you talking about? No one said anything about RA and yes your right RA has been splendid this year and deserves to be HOY. I was reacting to the ascertion that Zenyatta has been beating up on cupcakes her whole career which is completely untrue. She just makes them look that way.

He needs to bring up rachel and her accomplishments in every thread regardless if they are relevant or not to the discussion. It's an insecurity issue

[ghostyapper]

Can we all do one thing please?

If we want to debate the quality of the fields she's beat, the diversity of the distances she has won at, the diversity of surfaces she has won on, and whether she could beat very good colts, I'm all for it. But can we all stop using speed figures to compare horses on different surfaces.

The races develop differently and the paces are different. That tends to make the speed figures earned at the top of the scale different. IMHO the greatest turf horses in the world are clearly as good as the greatest dirt horses despite slower speed figures. I see no reason to think the same isn't true on synthetic. I think that almost necessitates qualitative comparisons.

It's amazing how few people understand this concept. They even use beaten lengths in turf races and compare them to dirt races.

[Marlin]

Some have tried to assert that her race yesterday just wasn't as good as it looked. Some have tried to say that you can't knock the race based on the weak competition (I'm not one of them). So let's go at it another way when judging the quality of her win. I think she earned a monster Beyer speed figure of 97. The winner of the Goodwood earned a 106. Anyone still think she can compete in the Classic?Yes!

[Zenyatta To Crush]

Some have tried to assert that her race yesterday just wasn't as good as it looked. Some have tried to say that you can't knock the race based on the weak competition (I'm not one of them). So let's go at it another way when judging the quality of her win. I think she earned a monster Beyer speed figure of 97. The winner of the Goodwood earned a 106. Anyone still think she can compete in the Classic?
If they wanted Zenyatta to run a 106, she would have had to beat the Lady's Secret field by probably at least 5 lengths. There's no point in asking her to go all out just to satisfy the critics who say she hasn't run a high beyer. If she had run in the Goodwood, she most likely would've run a very similar race, cruising to the lead midstretch, then asked for a little more to win by a comfortable margin. She'd earn close to a 108, but be used up more. If she runs in the Classic and runs all out, we'll see what she's really made of, and I predict a MONSTER beyer number if that happens.

[WinterTriangle]

I think she earned a monster Beyer speed figure of 97. The winner of the Goodwood earned a 106. Anyone still think she can compete in the Classic?

I just addressed that in the Goodwood topic.

[PaceAdvantage]

If they wanted Zenyatta to run a 106, she would have had to beat the Lady's Secret field by probably at least 5 lengths. There's no point in asking her to go all out just to satisfy the critics who say she hasn't run a high beyer. If she had run in the Goodwood, she most likely would've run a very similar race, cruising to the lead midstretch, then asked for a little more to win by a comfortable margin. She'd earn close to a 108, but be used up more. If she runs in the Classic and runs all out, we'll see what she's really made of, and I predict a MONSTER beyer number if that happens.It just doesn't work this way in real life.

[Java Gold@TFT]

In 42 years of racing I have never seen such idiotic comparison. Rachel Alexandra unquestionably is an outstanding racehorse who just happens to be a filly that has beaten male horses in races that her gender never have before.

On the other hand, Zenyatta has been equally outstanding even though she has run only against female horses and her connections has limited her starts to the synthetic surfaces with the exception of one.

But to use graded races as a comparison is ridiculous because except for the Woodward, Rachel ran in G1 races limited to 3yos only. Zenyatta has run in G1 races limited to female horses only.

Please tell me with those limitations how one can make a rational comparison except if both run against each other (and that is not going to happen) or they run against same type G1 fields.

If they never meet each other in a race, this argument will continue ad infinitum without proof.
Whatcha been smoking Cratos? of course it's a perfect comparison. You said that Zenyatta has only been running in sex restricted races but poo-poo Rachel running in age restricted but not sex restricted races until the Woodward. I expect Ghosty's idiotic comments because he has a proven track record at PA but I wouldn't expect it from you. We have a graded stakes process in this country that every horseman (owner, breeder, trainer, jockey, etc.) uses to determine how good a horse is and how much money they will eventually make.

One of the comments my post was responding to was about the lack of serious competition Zenyatta has faced this year. I merely put Rachel's stats out to show the lack of real competitiion that Zenyatta has faced on the track this year. I have said before in many threads that I have no problem with Zenyatta the horse (like Ghosty has with Rachel) however I have said every time that the owner has NEVER stepped up to any real challenge in 2009. He has ducked everything to run against the same group of tomato cans four times.

Maybe next time we can compare who Summer Bird has beaten in his wins instead of using Rachel as an example. He has as many G-I wins as Zenyatta and has beaten at least 5 other G-I winners I this year that I can think of off the top of my head. I'll still come back to this thread to learn who Zenyatta has beaten this year other than Life Is Sweet. Graded wins are important no matter what the restrictions on age or sex. Otherwise we would be comparing the running of the 'Named After MY website Stakes" to the KY Derby sponsored by YUM! Brands.

[Cratos]

Whatcha been smoking Cratos? of course it's a perfect comparison. You said that Zenyatta has only been running in sex restricted races but poo-poo Rachel running in age restricted but not sex restricted races until the Woodward. I expect Ghosty's idiotic comments because he has a proven track record at PA but I wouldn't expect it from you. We have a graded stakes process in this country that every horseman (owner, breeder, trainer, jockey, etc.) uses to determine how good a horse is and how much money they will eventually make.

One of the comments my post was responding to was about the lack of serious competition Zenyatta has faced this year. I merely put Rachel's stats out to show the lack of real competitiion that Zenyatta has faced on the track this year. I have said before in many threads that I have no problem with Zenyatta the horse (like Ghosty has with Rachel) however I have said every time that the owner has NEVER stepped up to any real challenge in 2009. He has ducked everything to run against the same group of tomato cans four times.

Maybe next time we can compare who Summer Bird has beaten in his wins instead of using Rachel as an example. He has as many G-I wins as Zenyatta and has beaten at least 5 other G-I winners I this year that I can think of off the top of my head. I'll still come back to this thread to learn who Zenyatta has beaten this year other than Life Is Sweet. Graded wins are important no matter what the restrictions on age or sex. Otherwise we would be comparing the running of the 'Named After MY website Stakes" to the KY Derby sponsored by YUM! Brands.

I am very sorry that you missed the point about G1 comparison because it a very salient point that is often overlooked by many when comparing horses to each other.

The point being made was that it is not that Rachel Alexandra is better than Zenyatta or conversely Zenyatta is better than Rachel, but using restricted G1 races to make such assessment is incorrect.

I will never forget when the great Secretariat made his first start against older horses in the unrestricted Whitney and was the prohibitive favorite there were some in the crowd that I was part of at the time who said vehemently “he has been beating youngsters; now he is facing men”

It is well documented that Secretariat lost that race and many reasons has been given for the loss, but the fact remains open G1 races are very different than restricted G1 races.

Do you think the restricted 1 ¼ mile G1 KY Derby is as tough as the unrestricted 1 ¼ mile G1 BC Classic? I believe in general it is not, however when you have exceptional 3yos they can rise to the occasion and win.

For the record I have said that at 1 1/8 miles I believe that Rachel will beat Zenyatta. The reason being is running styles. What I am saying it would be like Forego in 1975 against Wajima. At the shorter distance, Wajima had too much speed for the distance and beat Forego in consecutive meetings at 1 1/8 miles and at 1 ¼ miles, but when the distance was stretched to 1 ½ miles Forego won.

I know don’t which horse is better, Rachel or Zenyatta, but I do believe that looking at their current past performances and using their G1 races as the common denominator for comparison who is the best is not he right way to make the proper assessment. Although, their past performances might give a good indication of running style and race shape which would be instrumental in deciding who might win.

[the_fat_man]

It just doesn't work this way in real life.

I think it's rare to see horses overcome a 'pace' disadvantage and win.

It's even rarer to see horses overcome a 'setup' disadvantage and win.

Zenyatta is the kind of horse that is able to dictate HOW a race is run. In other words, she runs HER race and this does not depend on pace or how the race has setup. No matter what the situation, she still imposes her will/style on the field/race.

Whether she does this against the best horses out there is not the issue. The point is that she's done it 13 times in a row. I could really care less how 'FAST' Beyer thinks she is. She doing something that's extremely difficult. Consider that even running against plugs, there figures to be a day/race where things just don't go her way. Guess not.

[46zilzal]

You have just described ANY successful come from behind horse. ANY of them.

Without having ANY effect on the pace, they run at the field the way they usually do in spite of the fractions run ahead of them. Simple as these types run JUST enough to get by the field.

We had one qualitatively JUST like Zenyatta who would lag far far back and then pass the entire field (John Frank's mare Delta Colleen) no matter the pace in front of her and that is doing something on a bull ring.

[Cratos]

You have just described ANY successful come from behind horse. ANY of them.

Without having ANY effect on the pace, they run at the field the way they usually do in spite of the fractions run ahead of them. Simple as these types run JUST enough to get by the field.

We had one qualitatively JUST like Zenyatta who would lag far far back and then pass the entire field (John Frank's mare Delta Colleen) no matter the pace in front of her and that is doing something on a bull ring.

That tactic might work when the pacesetter(s) have early speed which tends to drop quickly as the distance gets longer.

But when the pacesetter(s) have speed for the distance (e.g., Affirmed, Rachel Alexandra, etc) the come from behind horse is at a severe disadvantage. I don't believe Zenyatta would overcome Rachel's inherent speed for the distance.

[horses721]

I think it's rare to see horses overcome a 'pace' disadvantage and win.

It's even rarer to see horses overcome a 'setup' disadvantage and win.

Zenyatta is the kind of horse that is able to dictate HOW a race is run. In other words, she runs HER race and this does not depend on pace or how the race has setup. No matter what the situation, she still imposes her will/style on the field/race.

Whether she does this against the best horses out there is not the issue. The point is that she's done it 13 times in a row. I could really care less how 'FAST' Beyer thinks she is. She doing something that's extremely difficult. Consider that even running against plugs, there figures to be a day/race where things just don't go her way. Guess not.

Zenyatta can dictate how a race is run because she runs against the same fields on the same polyturf course everytime she runs(except for 1 race out of 13).

By the way, since Pepper's Pride won 19 in a row and Hallowed Dreams won 16 in a row in races where they never faced competition outside of their comfort zones, does that make them better than Zenyatta?

[the_fat_man]

Zenyatta can dictate how a race is run because she runs against the same fields on the same polyturf course everytime she runs(except for 1 race out of 13).




Surely there are many other horses that are running against the same fields on the same polyturf. Why, then, can't they seem to overcome pace/setup?
Sounds like an easy recipe to me.

[tzipi]

It really should'nt even be a debate:

1: Is Zenyatta a good horse? yes,of course she is. She has talent.
2: Is she the best around or tackling obstacles? No,it's the same horses she is always running against on the same surface in the same place.

How she is not 1-9 start to finish every race is beyond me. Its the same fields under same conditions. But there is NOTHING to say to take away from her or say,she is not good or does'nt have talent.

I just say,hey there are harder races and boys and whatever else out there that the connections just avoid time and time again to run against the same field she's beaten up already. It's just fact. Yeah we get it,shes better than those 7-9 horses,yeah she's faster than them. Now let's see some tougher racin. I'm not against her,I'll be rooting for her to beat tougher. Lets try the Classic. Hey ya never know. She's a talent,lets try it out! :)

[horses721]

It really should'nt even be a debate:

1: Is Zenyatta a good horse? yes,of course she is. She has talent.
2: Is she the best around or tackling obstacles? No,it's the same horses she is always running against on the same surface in the same place.

How she is not 1-9 start to finish every race is beyond me. Its the same fields under same conditions. But there is NOTHING to say to take away from her or say,she is not good or does'nt have talent.

I just say,hey there are harder races and boys and whatever else out there that the connections just avoid time and time again to run against the same field she's beaten up already. It's just fact. Yeah we get it,shes better than those 7-9 horses,yeah she's faster than them. Now let's see some tougher racin. I'm not against her,I'll be rooting for her to beat tougher. Lets try the Classic. Hey ya never know. She's a talent,lets try it out! :)

AMEN

If you beat the same fields time and time again and never race outside of her comfort zone, does that make her great? Not until she proves it more than once(Oaklawn)!

[statik27]

AMEN

If you beat the same fields time and time again and never race outside of her comfort zone, does that make her great? Not until she proves it more than once(Oaklawn)!

You guys still aren't getting it, go and look at the mares she's beaten the last two years. She's won and or beaten the winners of every major race for older mares in this country.

She's cleaned up the SoCal races, won BC ladies classic and apple blossom. She's beaten 3 separate winners of the beldame and the winners of the Personal ensign, Ruffain, Go For Wand, Delaware handicap, spinster stakes and Molly Pitcher. And yet still somehow your going to pretend that she hasn't beat anybody?

Do I think she should run in the classic? Yes as a fan and someone who believes she can win it, yes I think she should. But don't pretend she hasn't dominated her division.

[tzipi]

You guys still aren't getting it, go and look at the mares she's beaten the last two years. She's won and or beaten the winners of every major race for older mares in this country.

She's cleaned up the SoCal races, won BC ladies classic and apple blossom. She's beaten 3 separate winners of the beldame and the winners of the Personal ensign, Ruffain, Go For Wand, Delaware handicap, spinster stakes and Molly Pitcher. And yet still somehow your going to pretend that she hasn't beat anybody?

Do I think she should run in the classic? Yes as a fan and someone who believes she can win it, yes I think she should. But don't pretend she hasn't dominated her division.


I don't think you're getting it. I'm not against her or dislike her. Look at the fields she's run against. It's mostly same horses on same surface. Yes,I know she's better and faster than those and beats those division horses. So who cares if she beats them again and again on same track with the same race. Shocker just proves she faster than those. I want her to run against males or go outside of Cal or run BC classic. I want to go to next level and they won't. I hope she wins against the top. I'll be rooting for her. It would be cool.

I think people are just getting tired of it against the same. It's like imagine the next HYPED race of hers and the race is,"AND HERE COMES ZENYATTA CLOSING ON COCOA BEACH,LETHAL HEAT TRYING TO HANG IN AND ZENYATTA WINS!!!" Yeah Ok we know,booring. I'm mad at connections,not her.

[joanied]

You guys still aren't getting it, go and look at the mares she's beaten the last two years. She's won and or beaten the winners of every major race for older mares in this country.

She's cleaned up the SoCal races, won BC ladies classic and apple blossom. She's beaten 3 separate winners of the beldame and the winners of the Personal ensign, Ruffain, Go For Wand, Delaware handicap, spinster stakes and Molly Pitcher. And yet still somehow your going to pretend that she hasn't beat anybody?

Do I think she should run in the classic? Yes as a fan and someone who believes she can win it, yes I think she should. But don't pretend she hasn't dominated her division.

:ThmbUp: :ThmbUp: :ThmbUp: I doubt they'll run her in the Classic...if Sea the Stars stays home, there is a slight chance they'll go for it...IMO...she can win the Classic...but if she does, she might also take HoY from Rachel.

[tzipi]

I agree,she should run in Classic. What's not to get. She's beaten those girls enough. Let's go after the bigger prize.

So what if she loses maybe,still does'nt make her bad. Hey maybe she wins.

[statik27]

I don't think you're getting it. I'm not against her or dislike her. Look at the fields she's run against. It's mostly same horses on same surface. Yes,I know she's better and faster than those and beats those division horses. So who cares if she beats them again and again on same track with the same race. Shocker just proves she faster than those. I want her to run against males or go outside of Cal or run BC classic. I want to go to next level and they won't. I hope she wins against the top. I'll be rooting for her. It would be cool.

I think people are just getting tired of it against the same. It's like imagine the next HYPED race of hers and the race is,"AND HERE COMES ZENYATTA CLOSING ON COCOA BEACH,LETHAL HEAT TRYING TO HANG IN AND ZENYATTA WINS!!!" Yeah Ok we know,booring. I'm mad at connections,not her.

I don't think I'm explaining myself well. So here goes. Forget what happened with Rachel this spring and summer for a second, cause you rarely see a filly taking on the boys. My question is this, if Zenyatta is only beating the same fillies over and over, what mare, in the last two years, has she not beaten that she should have?

The answer is no one, any mare that she should have beaten she has. You rarely see a horse in any division dominate its peers so completely. So can we agree that it isn't that Zenyatta has just beaten up on a bunch of nobodies, its that she's made all of them nobodies.

She's done exactly what her connections have asked of her and they know her better than I or anyone else does. So maybe they're doing whats best for their horse. I can't complain about that, heck, I even applaud it. So maybe she takes on the males, maybe she doesn't. But we shouldn't pretend that a horse winning like she has isn't rare and we shouldn't forget it.

[tzipi]

Yes I know she beaten those horses. I just said I wish she went outside her area and ran against boys so I could see a great race and see what the talent level is. I'll be rooting for her. That's all. I dont know why it's constantly a thing of,hey wake up she beaten girls. Yes I know,as most people do. Yes,she beat those horses over and over there. Let's move on to the top level and see some racin!

[Cratos]

:ThmbUp: :ThmbUp: :ThmbUp: I doubt they'll run her in the Classic...if Sea the Stars stays home, there is a slight chance they'll go for it...IMO...she can win the Classic...but if she does, she might also take HoY from Rachel.

Joanied, you make a good point and I hadn’t given Zenyatta any consideration for HOY because of her limited 2009 campaign which has been devoted by her connections exclusively to California and its synthetic racing surfaces.

However the idea that you have raised; which is she might be a viable HOY candidate if she is the winner of this year’s BC Classic is both intriguing and interesting.

[statik27]

Joanied, you make a good point and I hadn’t given Zenyatta any consideration for HOY because of her limited 2009 campaign which has been devoted by her connections exclusively to California and its synthetic racing surfaces.

However the idea that you have raised; which is she might be a viable HOY candidate if she is the winner of this year’s BC Classic is both intriguing and interesting.

In my mind, there's no question that RA will get HOY. But I think these two fillies might be on the cusp of an even greater prize. If Zenyatta were to win the breeders cup classic, future generations of racing fans would look back jealously that we were here to see her and Rachel in the same season.

[WinterTriangle]

There is no doubt she "thinks she is the greatest" She has the greatest personality. Love her little dances and prances. She seems to know she is putting on a show for everyone

And that, my friend, is what brings me *enjoyment* in racing.

Why does it always have to be about "running with the boys" blah blah blah

I sometimes think about the more-more-more mindset we have and look around at all the problems in society that come from it.

I SAW Zenyatta race here at Oaklawn Park on dirt. Probably her best race ever.


All I can say is, seeing Zenyatta and Rachel, and seeing Miss Z do her little dance on the track, in all her glory......heck, I didn't even care if she got out on the track and raced LOL!!! It was spine tingling just see her prance around.

they have already provided way more enjoyment than I can possibly imagine experiencing. I really don't *need* them to do anything further.

For horses like this, I take my nose out of the racing form, and just sit back and enjoy. And, whatever they do is enjoyable....against......whomever.

Why do they have to do *more*?

[Java Gold@TFT]

She's cleaned up the SoCal races, won BC ladies classic and apple blossom. She's beaten 3 separate winners of the beldame and the winners of the Personal ensign, Ruffain, Go For Wand, Delaware handicap, spinster stakes and Molly Pitcher. And yet still somehow your going to pretend that she hasn't beat anybody?


All of those you quoted were in ONE race last year. This is about 2009 HOY, not any race in 2008. Everyone loves to relive the Oaklawn race but that was 18 months ago. This, again, is 2009. In 2009 which horses Zenyatta has beaten have won graded stakes races other than Life Is Sweet? THIS year she beats the same poly tomato cans and as much as I think of Cocoa Beech she is not a poly horse. Moss has lost way too many opportunities to run in competitive fields this year - Louisville Distaff, Delaware H, Personal Ensign, Hollywood Gold Cup, Pac Classic, Goodwood, etc. He chose to run against nothing and will absolutley choose to avoid the real Classic. She will be enterred on Nov 6th and if I am wrong I will eat my words with humility.

[statik27]

All of those you quoted were in ONE race last year. This is about 2009 HOY, not any race in 2008. Everyone loves to relive the Oaklawn race but that was 18 months ago. This, again, is 2009. In 2009 which horses Zenyatta has beaten have won graded stakes races other than Life Is Sweet? THIS year she beats the same poly tomato cans and as much as I think of Cocoa Beech she is not a poly horse. Moss has lost way too many opportunities to run in competitive fields this year - Louisville Distaff, Delaware H, Personal Ensign, Hollywood Gold Cup, Pac Classic, Goodwood, etc. He chose to run against nothing and will absolutley choose to avoid the real Classic. She will be enterred on Nov 6th and if I am wrong I will eat my words with humility.

I love how you keep bringing up 2009 HOY. Especially when this thread isn't about that. If your read back over these posts and not just react to it, you'll see that this isn't about Zen's 2009, but her career over all. So do you want to answer my question?

What older mare thats run in the last 2/3 years was Zenyatta suppose to beat and hasn't?

[46zilzal]

But when the pacesetter(s) have speed for the distance (e.g., Affirmed, Rachel Alexandra, etc) the come from behind horse is at a severe disadvantage. I don't believe Zenyatta would overcome Rachel's inherent speed for the distance.
Obviously in a match race no. In a field of horses where there is not alone on the lead animal, and at a distance of 9 frulongs OR LONGER, that tactical advantage is a lot less of a plus.

[cj]

I love how you keep bringing up 2009 HOY. Especially when this thread isn't about that. If your read back over these posts and not just react to it, you'll see that this isn't about Zen's 2009, but her career over all. So do you want to answer my question?

What older mare thats run in the last 2/3 years was Zenyatta suppose to beat and hasn't?

She was supposed to try colts maybe. I guess they need the money, and if that is the case, I have no qualms with the schedule. Somehow I doubt that is the case though.

[Steve R]

I love how you keep bringing up 2009 HOY. Especially when this thread isn't about that. If your read back over these posts and not just react to it, you'll see that this isn't about Zen's 2009, but her career over all. So do you want to answer my question?

What older mare thats run in the last 2/3 years was Zenyatta suppose to beat and hasn't?
I can't recall, but did she ever race against Nashoba's Key? That one was something like 8 out of 10 lifetime and won several G1s.

[Cat Thief]

Well said Winter. My thoughts too. They are so enjoyable to watch even before they reach the gate. And don't they know that they are #1. Both of them are great.

[statik27]

I can't recall, but did she ever race against Nashoba's Key? That one was something like 8 out of 10 lifetime and won several G1s.

I would have loved to see Zen take on NK, but Zenyatta didn't even break her maiden until very late in 2007. NK made 2 starts in 2008 before her very untimely death, in the SM filly and mares turf which Z wouldn't have run in anyway and once in March in the santa Margarita. Zenyatta was at Oaklawn for the Apple Blossom.

If NK hadn't have died we would have seen a great match up between these two.

[classhandicapper]

Sometimes, I find these debates incomprehensible.

Does anyone on earth really believe that if one of the top colts from the Goodward field ran in Zenyatta's race they would have drawn off to a big win and earned a Beyer of 106 or thereabouts?

I think given how synthetic races develop in general and the pace of her race specifically, the chances are pretty close to zero.

Maybe the colt would have beaten her (that's the debateable part), but her own Beyer figure and margin of victory for that race are pretty much nonsensical as a measurement of her ability. It was impossible for her to run a fast figure given how slow the early pace of that race was.

IMHO, if you want to evaluate her ability using speed figures, I think you have to look at her overall record and pick out the figures she earned when she got a decent pace in front of her. Even though that's a risky proposition for most horses, I see no sign this filly isn't just as good this year as she was last year other than some slow speed figures that IMO mean less than nothing if you've been watching her in action and looking at the race developments.

And don't forget that a decent pace on synth is usually slower than what we see on dirt. So much so, even Beyer is now adjusting his synth figures up this year. So if you retroactively adjust her best figures from last when she did get a few good paces to run at, she's actually quite fast too.

Over and above that, I 100% agree with "the_fat_man" about her record of 13 for 13 indicating ability over and above figures and margins. Every horse occasionally gets a bad pace setup, bad trip, runs against the bias, another good horse beats them to the move etc.... That's why lots of good horses get beat. When a horse consistently overcomes the pace, race shape, etc.. it it demonstrating levels of ability that do not show up in figures and margins. This is a great filly. It's so obvious I can't believe anyone doubts it because of dopey speed figures earned on synth.

Whether she can win the BC Classic is an entirely different issue because I'm not sure I have ever seen a filly I would favor in the typical BC Classic. Those fields are typically monstrously deep and talented unlike the fields that the best fillies of the past have been able to handle. That includes Ruffian, Go for Wand, and yes, Rachel Alexander. So if she runs and gets beat, I don't think it would take away from her greatness.

The one thing she would have working to her advantage is that the race is on synth and much like turf, it may narrow the gap between colts and fillies and give closing kick a chance.

[bisket]

the main reason i don't like zen in the classic is it will be a large field, and i don't like her at 1 1/4 mile. i think if the field is small that'll be the most likely variable that will put her in the race. i have always felt that in large fields you need an above average race and some luck to win. i just don't see a filly or mare putting forth the type of race required to win in a full field of top quality males. in a small field i give a filly or mare a better shot.

[RXB]

I take a middleground position regarding Zenyatta's ability. Her competition has been not much by Grade 1 standards, thus aiding and abetting the extension of her winning streak. It's one thing to get a bad setup; getting a bad setup against suspect opposition, however, is much more possible to overcome.

That said, she is a better horse than her detractors claim.

I wouldn't like her chances in the Classic.

[Nikki1997]

WeSometimes, I find these debates incomprehensible.

Does anyone on earth really believe that if one of the top colts from the Goodward field ran in Zenyatta's race they would have drawn off to a big win and earned a Beyer of 106 or thereabouts?

I think given how synthetic races develop in general and the pace of her race specifically, the chances are pretty close to zero.

Maybe the colt would have beaten her (that's the debateable part), but her own Beyer figure and margin of victory for that race are pretty much nonsensical as a measurement of her ability. It was impossible for her to run a fast figure given how slow the early pace of that race was.

IMHO, if you want to evaluate her ability using speed figures, I think you have to look at her overall record and pick out the figures she earned when she got a decent pace in front of her. Even though that's a risky proposition for most horses, I see no sign this filly isn't just as good this year as she was last year other than some slow speed figures that IMO mean less than nothing if you've been watching her in action and looking at the race developments.

And don't forget that a decent pace on synth is usually slower than what we see on dirt. So much so, even Beyer is now adjusting his synth figures up this year. So if you retroactively adjust her best figures from last when she did get a few good paces to run at, she's actually quite fast too.

Over and above that, I 100% agree with "the_fat_man" about her record of 13 for 13 indicating ability over and above figures and margins. Every horse occasionally gets a bad pace setup, bad trip, runs against the bias, another good horse beats them to the move etc.... That's why lots of good horses get beat. When a horse consistently overcomes the pace, race shape, etc.. it it demonstrating levels of ability that do not show up in figures and margins. This is a great filly. It's so obvious I can't believe anyone doubts it because of dopey speed figures earned on synth.

Whether she can win the BC Classic is an entirely different issue because I'm not sure I have ever seen a filly I would favor in the typical BC Classic. Those fields are typically monstrously deep and talented unlike the fields that the best fillies of the past have been able to handle. That includes Ruffian, Go for Wand, and yes, Rachel Alexander. So if she runs and gets beat, I don't think it would take away from her greatness.

The one thing she would have working to her advantage is that the race is on synth and much like turf, it may narrow the gap between colts and fillies and give closing kick a chance.

Well said. :ThmbUp:

[Cratos]

Obviously in a match race no. In a field of horses where there is not alone on the lead animal, and at a distance of 9 frulongs OR LONGER, that tactical advantage is a lot less of a plus.

Then you probably never saw the great Dr. Fager run and if you didn't place a call to Damascus former trainer, Frank Whiteley with the above assertion; I believed that he would give a different answer. Also add Seattle Slew and Ruffian to the list.

[classhandicapper]

I take a middleground position regarding Zenyatta's ability. Her competition has been not much by Grade 1 standards, thus aiding and abetting the extension of her winning streak. It's one thing to get a bad setup; getting a bad setup against suspect opposition, however, is much more possible to overcome.

That said, she is a better horse than her detractors claim.



I think that's a reasonable POV about her 2009 campaign, but not her campaign last year. If all we had to look at was 2009, I would probably be a lot more conservative in my assessment of her ability because she's had a very easy campaign this year. But last year she pissed on Ginger Punch "on dirt" while putting up a decent Beyer figure long before she had even hit her best stride. She was toying with Hysterical Lady last year. Then she beat a very deep and talented Ladies Classic field.

She put up consecutive Beyers of 108 on synthetic before the new Beyer adjustments. If my memory serves me correctly, those races would have earned 112s under the new formula. She won ridden out with something in reserve (not to even mention some of Mike Smith's standard huge ground losing rides).

I know I've been very repetitive about this, but I think this debate is entirely about narrow winning margins and slow speed figures relative to those typically earned on dirt by championship caliber females.

The things is, this is not dirt racing. It's synthetic racing that is lot like like turf racing. The Stakes PARs and average winning margins are slower and smaller respectively at the top of the scale because of pace issues. If you don't understand that, you can't even attempt to make valid comparisons to dirt horses.

[CincyHorseplayer]

I think that's a reasonable POV about her 2009 campaign, but not her campaign last year. If all we had to look at was 2009, I would probably be a lot more conservative in my assessment of her ability because she's had a very easy campaign this year. But last year she pissed on Ginger Punch "on dirt" while putting up a decent Beyer figure long before she had even hit her best stride. She was toying with Hysterical Lady last year. Then she beat a very deep and talented Ladies Classic field.

She put up consecutive Beyers of 108 on synthetic before the new Beyer adjustments. If my memory serves me correctly, those races would have earned 112s under the new formula. She won ridden out with something in reserve (not to even mention some of Mike Smith's standard huge ground losing rides).

I know I've been very repetitive about this, but I think this debate is entirely about narrow winning margins and slow speed figures relative to those typically earned on dirt by championship caliber females.

The things is, this is not dirt racing. It's synthetic racing that is lot like like turf racing. The Stakes PARs and average winning margins are slower and smaller respectively at the top of the scale because of pace issues. If you don't understand that, you can't even attempt to make valid comparisons to dirt horses.


I think there is a very valid argument about Zen not being as great this season.If even Beyer(as you said) upgraded figures on synthetics,why are they still lower??It might have enhanced her numbers last year,but seeing a 97 with the upgrade,it has to raise a red flag.

[classhandicapper]

I think there is a very valid argument about Zen not being as great this season.If even Beyer(as you said) upgraded figures on synthetics,why are they still lower??It might have enhanced her numbers last year,but seeing a 97 with the upgrade,it has to raise a red flag.

It does raise a red flag until you look at how slow the pace was in her last two starts. Then it becomes clear that she couldn't have put up a really fast speed figure even if she was capable of it.

So the question becomes how fast could she have run with a more average "dirt like" pace?

You can try to estimate how well she ran based on her closing fraction and the slow pace. CJ started an excellent thread on this yesterday - see Z vs. Gitano.

However, then we are dealing with guesstimates about the exact relationship between pace and final time for this filly. I think CJ estimated a 104. That seems reasonable, but I would simply argue that something like that is probably not as firm as a real speed figure. It may not even be as solid as looking at a race without a slow pace, seeing what she was capable of doing, and then trying to estimate whether she's in the same form or better/worse. Doing both might be a good idea.

Personally, I am not as literal about the figures as some people (just a pesonal preference). I don't think she's any worse this year than last year based on what I am seeing on the track. I think the slightly slower numbers are just a matter of pace, margin of error, etc... in all numeric measurements. Doesn't mean I am right, but I think people should at least understand the different nature of dirt and sythetic/turf racing before trashing her because she's not running fast figures like some of the dirt greats and also not winning by huge margins.

[CincyHorseplayer]

It does raise a red flag until you look at how slow the pace was in her last two starts. Then it becomes clear that she couldn't have put up a really fast speed figure even if she was capable of it.

So the question becomes how fast could she have run with a more average "dirt like" pace?

You can try to estimate how well she ran based on her closing fraction and the slow pace. CJ started an excellent thread on this yesterday - see Z vs. Gitano.

However, then we are dealing with guesstimates about the exact relationship between pace and final time for this filly. I think CJ estimated a 104. That seems reasonable, but I would simply argue that something like that is probably not as firm as a real speed figure. It may not even be as solid as looking at a race without a slow pace, seeing what she was capable of doing, and then trying to estimate whether she's in the same form or better/worse. Doing both might be a good idea.

Personally, I am not as literal about the figures as some people (just a pesonal preference). I don't think she's any worse this year than last year based on what I am seeing on the track. I think the slightly slower numbers are just a matter of pace, margin of error, etc... in all numeric measurements. Doesn't mean I am right, but I think people should at least understand the different nature of dirt and sythetic/turf racing before trashing her because she's not running fast figures like some of the dirt greats and also not winning by huge margins.


I read CJ's thread Class.And I understand where he was coming from with changing the evaluation standpoints on synthetic.

Normally on dirt,even good horses have a symmetrical balance between speed and pace figs(we all know it),speed goes up,pace goes down and vice versa.My whole point was that,with upgraded BSF,a slow final time,and an even slower pace figure,is Zenyatta who she was in 08??Or is she the horse that won by a nose over a N2X Allowance horse??That race,for me,said "Wait a minute here".And the tragedy is we may never know how good she really is or could be.Or isn't.

[statik27]

I read CJ's thread Class.And I understand where he was coming from with changing the evaluation standpoints on synthetic.

Normally on dirt,even good horses have a symmetrical balance between speed and pace figs(we all know it),speed goes up,pace goes down and vice versa.My whole point was that,with upgraded BSF,a slow final time,and an even slower pace figure,is Zenyatta who she was in 08??Or is she the horse that won by a nose over a N2X Allowance horse??That race,for me,said "Wait a minute here".And the tragedy is we may never know how good she really is or could be.Or isn't.

I think that this is a fair opinion and some fair questions. The only thing that I would reiterate is that Anabaa's creation was no ordinary alw Nx2. She was mulitple group1 placed in france and was third in the french oaks as a 3yo. Look what that wolverhampton alw. horse did to the Goodwood field on saturday.

Plus you had Zenyatta running into a snails pace. It was a good performance.

As a side note, did anyone else catch John Sheriffs say after the Lady's Secret that when Zenyatta hit the wire in the Clement L. Hirsch, they clocked her running 40 mph. Thats a big number at the end of a race and shows just how deceiving her long stride is.

[CincyHorseplayer]

I think that this is a fair opinion and some fair questions. The only thing that I would reiterate is that Anabaa's creation was no ordinary alw Nx2. She was mulitple group1 placed in france and was third in the french oaks as a 3yo. Look what that wolverhampton alw. horse did to the Goodwood field on saturday.


Yeah.Quite the adversary on plastic.