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tzipi
10-10-2009, 07:01 PM
European turf horse shipping over,wins at 18-1. MTB nowhere to be found. Zenyatta race next. Can't wait.

jognlope
10-10-2009, 07:06 PM
MTB was getting up there, but maybe strugglin with the fake surface.

tzipi
10-10-2009, 07:12 PM
Yeah don't think he took to it that well. But I don' think he's much of a turfer. European glided over it. Not that that's a shock. Surprised he was 18-1.

jognlope
10-10-2009, 07:13 PM
They need to develop "plastic caulks" :(

Tom
10-10-2009, 07:14 PM
Sneakers? :lol:

Hanover1
10-10-2009, 07:16 PM
But that would be "cruel" :D

Show Me the Wire
10-10-2009, 07:22 PM
MTB had no problem working out over the surface earlier in the week. Wooley had him out early on the track today to work the edge off MTB. Could have taken off to much of the edge. Personally, I am not a fan of exercising the horse the morning of a competitive race.

Does anyone know if Wooley has done this before with MTB?

Also, Borel better learn to ride Santa Anita. Moved too late even if MTB would have fired.

tzipi
10-10-2009, 07:36 PM
Working over a track and running over a track are two different things. There are turf horses who can blow out over dirt tracks but they don't really run a lick on them race wise. Oh well,we'll see.

Java Gold@TFT
10-10-2009, 07:37 PM
When will someone, anyone, stop making excuses for MTB and just admit that he freaked in one race and really isn't anything special?

nearco
10-10-2009, 07:40 PM
When will someone, anyone, stop making excuses for MTB and just admit that he freaked in one race and really isn't anything special?
:ThmbUp:

rrpic6
10-10-2009, 07:45 PM
When will someone, anyone, stop making excuses for MTB and just admit that he freaked in one race and really isn't anything special?

Amen! So much money made betting against him since! Truly cannot understand someone taking less than 20-1 on him this race considering his only race at SA was a real stinker. America loves Wooley and Borel.....a fool and his $$......

RR

bks
10-10-2009, 07:46 PM
MTB was the Canadian champion juvenile running on Woodbine's synthetic.

Do you dirt-freaks hear yourselves?

nearco
10-10-2009, 07:48 PM
European turf horse shipping over,wins at 18-1. MTB nowhere to be found. Zenyatta race next. Can't wait.

Turf horse??

He's a 3rd rate turf horse. So much so he's connections were training him for the Belmont Stakes until he was sidelined by injury. He has since shown great form on synthetics.

tzipi
10-10-2009, 07:49 PM
Yeah NEARCO it's called reading. I said he's a turf horse. Look at this PP's. Uhhh he's a turf horse. Not a great one,but who here said he was??
When horses run on turf. I call them turf horses. I don't know what u call them? A turf horse won the race.

Tom
10-10-2009, 07:54 PM
Canadian 2yo champion, in the money in all three triple crown races, a lenght off Rachael, who destroyed older males, coming back a medical procedure........nothing to call him a slouch.

WinterTriangle
10-10-2009, 08:04 PM
Canadian 2yo champion, in the money in all three triple crown races, a lenght off Rachael, who destroyed older males, coming back a medical procedure........nothing to call him a slouch.

I don't know anyone who thought he would win on this new surface. Woodbine is not Santa Anita.

MTB tries it all. He's game. Wooley is game. Tryin' out SA. Good for them. How many others won't? This is how you build a racehorse with longevity, you run them in different situations.

there's a lot to appreciate about these thoroughbreds....while I realize some people only like the ones who win all the time...precocity and those who go to breeders shed after their 3rd year..... But there are *qualities* about some of them that make them special to me, Zenyatta, MTB, horses people say terrible things about.

MTB will give us many years of pleasure. He's still sound after ALL this......how many others can you say that about, who ran in the kind of races he ran this year?

bisket
10-10-2009, 08:11 PM
horses that have that problem usually take awhile to race at top form again. it can reoccur, and most times it will. what the real problem is though it really scares the daylights out of them, and makes them unwilling to run at there top speed. they get frightened to try there best because of the fear of it happening. some horse never get over it. he won't be getting any of my money until i see him racing at his maximum effort again. borel's comments after the race says to me the horse may still be frightened.

Java Gold@TFT
10-10-2009, 08:15 PM
Canadian 2yo champion, in the money in all three triple crown races, a lenght off Rachael, who destroyed older males, coming back a medical procedure........nothing to call him a slouch.
One win in a perffect storm since he left Canada. Even in Canada one win in a graded stake and that was a G-III. Ducks the Haskell for the much less prestigious WV Derby where Woolley was getting an appearence fee for being there. Leading up to the Travers Wooley kept saying how great everything was after the surgery but decided at the last minute not to run. He still had 9 more days to prepare for the Woodward - a race he was also nominated for but decided to go back to NM to get another appearence fee for the All American Futurity post parade. Personally I thought he looked awful in the paddock today and ran like it. He wasn't making up one bit of ground in the stretch. People can say whatever they want about Woolley being a nice guy and an "Aw Shucks" type of story but when I looked at his stats in Formulater this morning he has won 6 races this year. Hello, it's October. 6 wins? One was the KY Derby and 3 were maidens. He also won 3 QH races but all of those horses were trained by his brother because he basically runs a stable of one. Did you hear the interview with Borel immediately after the race? While being mildly evasive he basically said that MTB really didn't like the poly and was not looking forward to any improvement if he went to the BC but that was a decision for Chip and the owner. So, ITM in all three TC races makes up for the fact that he can't finish in front of horses like Big Drama at 9F or Dunkirk at 12F (which is FAR from a distance he likes.) MTB is Giacomo revisited. The only way he wins another graded stakes race is if he goes back to Canada or just hangs around long enough because he is a gelding. Sorry if the truth hurts. Even after winning the Derby he was one of the highest priced Derby winners ever to run in the Preakness for a reason.

delayjf
10-10-2009, 09:36 PM
MTB was getting up there, but maybe strugglin with the fake surface.

I think the TC has taken its toll on MTB, he may not be the same until next year. Nothing to be ashamed of, it has happened to a lot of horses better than him.

Show Me the Wire
10-10-2009, 10:19 PM
I am not so sure it is the horse. The horse has trained well and this is the second time he didn't fire. I have nothing against Wooley, but I do not think he is ready for prime time yet. Wooley recieved the biggest gift of his life when he took over a well trained fit horse, just in time for the Derby. That previous influence has worn off and it is all Wooley now and the results are not pretty.

It would be interesting to see what a prime time trainer could do with MTB.

OntheRail
10-10-2009, 10:37 PM
If you watch him out of the gate after he drifted to the rail... he was climbing... wanting to run a bit more towards the pace. I wonder if this choking him back is not working against MTB mentally. I kinda agree with you Show Me The Wire.... Wooley got a shiny penny and has rubbed the luster of it.

CBedo
10-10-2009, 10:47 PM
I was very surprised that MTB took so much money in this race. I'm not sure who I'd have made the favorite, but it wouldn't have been him.

CincyHorseplayer
10-10-2009, 11:55 PM
I liked Parading.It was pure joy to see my tickets burnt on the 1st turn!!!Too headstrong.

Caught the last exacta at Keeneland though,so I can't hate on the plastic totally.

Thanks for the link Cmoore.I don't leave a (breeding)contender off my tickets without it:ThmbUp:

wisconsin
10-11-2009, 12:14 AM
Personally I thought he looked awful in the paddock today and ran like it. He wasn't making up one bit of ground in the stretch.

While he was not overly impressive, I don't know what race you were watching. He was 8th, 9 lengths out at the 1/8th pole and finished 6th beaten 3 3/4 lengths and was running on. Horses like this tend over promise and under deliver, but he was gaining in the final 1/8th and might have got there at his best distance (1 1/4). People just seem to want this horse to fail just to say "I told you so".

plainolebill
10-11-2009, 03:33 AM
I am not so sure it is the horse. The horse has trained well and this is the second time he didn't fire. I have nothing against Wooley, but I do not think he is ready for prime time yet. Wooley recieved the biggest gift of his life when he took over a well trained fit horse, just in time for the Derby. That previous influence has worn off and it is all Wooley now and the results are not pretty.

It would be interesting to see what a prime time trainer could do with MTB.

I agree 100% and also think the horse is much better on dirt despite his record in Canada. Give the trainer and the jock the boot and let someone else give it a whirl.

I looked at the Goodwood PPs last night and said to myself - this is a matter of which horse do you hate the least. I should have listened - the only unknown quantity in the race was the winner.

46zilzal
10-11-2009, 03:36 AM
Kieren "the Felon" Fallon. Thought he was out of the game.

WinterTriangle
10-11-2009, 05:11 AM
Even in Canada one win in a graded stake and that was a G-III.

You are misinformed. He won 4 of 6 starts in Canada. He won the Grey Stakes, the Swynford, and the Silver Deputy stakes as a 2 year old, was Canadian HOY.

He didn't come to the US til he was 3 and that's when he got Wooley.




MTB's FIRST ever workout on SA surface was exactly 11 days ago. :)

Versus SA poly specialists like CJ or Richard's Kid, Parading, who are brilliant ON SA SURFACE and trainers train to it.

Plus he gets Borel, who doesn't ride SA.


Wrong race for MTB, which is why I say he was practicing on it, trainer needed to see how he ran over it.

On dirt at KY Derby, MTB put the SA poly specialists to shame. (He made Pioneer of the Nile look like he was standing still). And then he was ITM at Preakness and Belmont.

Find it funny, everyone complaining about plastic, so when one of the talented "dirt" horses loses, he's a loser, LOL

Wooley may not be a super trainer, but MTB did the grueling Triple Crown campaign, kept racing, and is still sound. Conversely, the graveyard of injured/unsound Triple Crown series race horses is as long as my arm this year. IMHO, he needs 1 1/2 miles anyway. He has tactical speed, needs some time to close. In KY Derby, he had trouble at gate, was 8+ lengths behind everyone.

As for perfect storm in Derby....he ran the final quarter in 23.77. They didn't even expect him to hit the board in the Preakness, because of the speed in the race, yet he was right behind Rachel.

I find it rather odd that some can't seem to acknowledge his accomplishments, only his losses.

Java Gold@TFT
10-11-2009, 05:50 AM
You are misinformed. He won 4 of 6 starts in Canada. He won the Grey Stakes, the Swynford, and the Silver Deputy stakes as a 2 year old, was Canadian HOY.

He didn't come to the US til he was 3 and that's when he got Wooley.




MTB's FIRST ever workout on SA surface was exactly 11 days ago. :)


Go back and read carefully. One graded stakes, the other two were not graded stakes. They were overnights with slot inflated purses. He may have had only one work at SA but he has been on the track gallopping every day. And he did race over the same surface last year in the BC Juvy and finished last. If you look carefully again, Mandella was listed as the trainer of record and not Woolley. Even when Woolley went to Canada to look at MTB before he was bought he called the current owners on day one and told them no way. It took him 3 more days of watching before he called back to say OK.

And you still can't get me to buy into the TC races excuse as to why a horse can't win a race since the first weekend in May. It's the middle of October right now. He had exactly one race since June 7th and that was pretty bad. So, a quality race horse can't get enough rest over a 4 month period to run well in October? Summer Bird doesn't seem to being too poorly after running in the Arkansas Derby, KY Derby, Belmont, Haskell, Travers and JCGC (and yes I know he didn't run in the Preakness).

WinterTriangle
10-11-2009, 06:58 AM
Go back and read carefully. One graded stakes, the other two were not graded stakes. They were overnights with slot inflated purses.

sorry, Java, you are right about the *graded* races.

I'm not saying MTB is a world beater, I'm just someone who appreciates what he's accomplished, which is more than a lot are willing to give him credit for. I'm not giving him more than he has earned....only what he HAS earned.

Like I said, I do expect years of racing *fun* with him, not like the fallen from the last round of TC series horses. Pamplemousse, IWR, etc. aren't around anymore.

I will continue to follow Mine That Bird, merely because I like the little horse, and he will continue to be entered in fun races. There's a lot of shining stars out there, but I don't expect them to be racing next year. ;)

Java Gold@TFT
10-11-2009, 07:18 AM
I will continue to follow Mine That Bird, merely because I like the little horse, and he will continue to be entered in fun races. There's a lot of shining stars out there, but I don't expect them to be racing next year. ;)
I think you will be surprised at who is racing next year. Have you followed the breeding and sales markets this year? 3yo's like Summer Bird who would have been retired in the past can make a lot more money on the track next year than in the breeding shed. In the past he may have gone out with a $35K stud fee but that isn't happening in this market. The owners who also own their own breeding farm, will be better off running next year and chasing the Donn, DWC, Woodward, JCGC and BC Classic. I'm sure the same will hold true for others like Quality Road as well as ome other 3yo's we haven't seen since May or June. There is also no big hurry to retire Rachel, Careless Jewel, Icon Project and other top mares. Personally, I think next year may be one of the better years in recent history for keeping good horses around.

OntheRail
10-11-2009, 09:44 AM
Well if you look at MTB's win's on the polycrap he was within a length or three at most from the front. When he set way back on the polycrap he was OOTM. He has the stamina to RUN these shorter routes and should be allowed to RUN... I think Woolley's one run BS could be taking the fight out of him. I almost wish Talamo had the mount cause with his cockiness he may of likely let the Bird fly. I wonder what Tim Ice could do for him.

I like MTB and will keep doing so but Woolley is on the bubble. :bang:

Murph
10-11-2009, 09:54 AM
MTB was getting up there, but maybe strugglin with the fake surface.NTRA Video of the Goodwood (http://www.ntra.com/video.aspx?id=42321)

bisket
10-11-2009, 10:06 AM
I think you will be surprised at who is racing next year. Have you followed the breeding and sales markets this year? 3yo's like Summer Bird who would have been retired in the past can make a lot more money on the track next year than in the breeding shed. In the past he may have gone out with a $35K stud fee but that isn't happening in this market. The owners who also own their own breeding farm, will be better off running next year and chasing the Donn, DWC, Woodward, JCGC and BC Classic. I'm sure the same will hold true for others like Quality Road as well as ome other 3yo's we haven't seen since May or June. There is also no big hurry to retire Rachel, Careless Jewel, Icon Project and other top mares. Personally, I think next year may be one of the better years in recent history for keeping good horses around.
excellant point, and i never thought of things in this light.

classhandicapper
10-11-2009, 11:29 AM
I don't think MTB was terrible yesterday, but I think he was overrated going into the race. He made up some ground in a very even paced race. I think he would have had to been really special to get up from that far back in that race.

Keep in mind....

1. He caught a perfect up the rail trip on a rail biased track in the Derby.

2. He had a very good pace setup in the Preakness after Rachel hooked the inside speed from her outside post. (IMHO, the Beyer figure for that race was also inflated by a few points).

3. He was probably moved prematurely in the Belmont, but that wasn't a particularly fast race.

4. He was disappointing in the West Virginia race.

What I think we have here is pretty good horse that peaked at the right time and that caught of couple of good trips that made him look better than he was. He was a good "bet against" yesterday.

CincyHorseplayer
10-11-2009, 11:39 AM
Funny thread.

It has gone from talk about the "Goodward" to MTB.From non existence to the Twilight Zone of 1 win.

Lovely!:cool:

WinterTriangle
10-11-2009, 12:11 PM
I dunno why I didnt play Gitano. I just opened my notifications which I neglected to do yestday and got this:

Gitano Hernando (GB) (http://www.equibase.com/premium/eqpHorseMPPByHorse.cfm?refno=7775277&SAP=HPV&BT=TB) is entered to run on October 10, 2009 at OAK TREE AT SANTA ANITA.

Your comments for this horse were: track record @ 1 1/16-mile allow Wolverhampton--synth specialist 6-3-2-0

D'oh~ Now I remember entering him specifically.....to play next out. LOL:lol:

joanied
10-11-2009, 02:36 PM
Two bummers for me...that Col. John just got beat...and that a no name horse won...sorry all, but this Euro horse winning was a complete shock for me...I really liked Col. John & Richard's Kid ...and was in high hopes that MTB could win it...
I didn't like the way he looked in the paddock, and right after Wooley said he's gotten the 'edge' off him (as in no more fits), the horse began to act up...again...seems he's not the same laid back horse he once was...someone mentioned it'd been better if Talamo was on...I tend to agree...and think Talamo may have given MTB a better ride...but, in defence of Calvin...Wooley said he wanted that one big run...so Calvin had no choice in taking him back...despite th fact that he pretty much had to choke MTB back and that made MTB climb...I also beleive the distance was too short for MTB...although I am not sure it would have mattered on Saturday...I think he would have finished closer, but still wouldn't have won it.
I love this little horse, and hope he gets in the winner's circle again...but, I think everyone, at this point in time, has to realize they got lucky in the Derby...he peaked at the right time...and pretty much held his form for the next 2 legs...even if Calvin hadn't moved too soon in the Belmont, he would not have won it.
I think the biggest problem for MTB is Woolley...the man can't train a horse, IMO...his record speaks for itself, and after the WV Derby, I was convinced that Woolley belongs in NM...he may be a very nice man, but IMO, he can't train a lick.

Java Gold makes a very good point about next year...we are going to have a lot of these horses back again....which is fantastic...I don't care why (stud fees & sales way down)...I just really look forward to it...and I hope MTB is one of them...IMO, if Woolley wasn't good friends with MTB's owners, he'd been replaced already.
Did you see his reaction to the race...made me feel sad for him...for about a minute...I do wish someone else could train MTB...MTB's mind is going to cloud up with doubt & frustration...I wish Woolley had told Calvin to ride MTB as he saw fit...I doubt Calvin would have choked him back...I think he would have let the little horse go because in my eyes, it looked like that is what MTB wanted...but, Calvin would have been crucified if he'd changed the riding instructions Woolley gave him.

Guess we'll have to wait now and see what they do with him...but, I do think he'll run in the Classic...the extra distance will suit him, but man...the field is going to be awful tough....and I wonder if Calvin rides him...yesterday it was not his fault...he had his orders going in and did what he could with them...and the rail never did open.

WinterTriangle
10-11-2009, 11:27 PM
My thoughts after watching the Goodwood:

if this is all we have to throw at the Euros for BC day...........:confused:


BTW, Gitano Hernando isn't a nobody. broke track record in his other race and is syth specialist as my notes said......further:



Crist:
"Jockey Mike Smith said after the race that Zenyatta won easily and that he only turned her loose "for about four steps." Students of time, however, will note that Zenyatta's winning time of 1:42.89 for 8.5f was sharply inferior to Gitano Hernando's 1:48.39 for 9f in the Goodwood 35 minutes earlier...they are laughing over in Europe right now."

These Euros all quicken dramatically in the final two furlongs. That is how GH beat CJ today, and CJ excels at SA. Gomez said GH just had a quicker turn of foot and outjumped the Colonel and that was the difference. Horses like MC, RVW and especially STS have push button speed and stamina. They can rate and as quick as you can snap your fingers they are off and running in the stretch at a much faster pace. It's exactly the way it was last year with Raven's Pass and Henrythenavigator left Tiago and Curlin in their wake and powered home 1-2. Pro-Ride surface is perfect for forms like theirs. And remember how shocked Johnny V was last year on Henrythenavigator. He said he thought he moved a bit late trying to save energy, but he was shocked the way his horse kicked home in the stretch:

"He (HTN) clearly had it in him to get 10 furlongs. Had I known I had that much horse under me I would have asked him sooner for his run, and I think he may well have caught the winner. This is a very nice horse...they both skipped over this track"

the_fat_man
10-11-2009, 11:55 PM
And remember how shocked Johnny V was last year on Henrythenavigator. He said he thought he moved a bit late trying to save energy, but he was shocked the way his horse kicked home in the stretch:

"He (HTN) clearly had it in him to get 10 furlongs. Had I known I had that much horse under me I would have asked him sooner for his run, and I think he may well have caught the winner. This is a very nice horse...they both skipped over this track"

Henrythenavigator didn't change leads in the stretch but he got much the best trip of the top 4 (excluding Tiago, who's not in the discussion).

Even if Johnny does understand this (or refuses to acknowledge it).

Humph
10-12-2009, 03:32 AM
I'm not sure if breaking a Wolverhampton track record is really that noteworthy. The course plays host to some very mediocre racing , with genuine top-notchers not generally being allowed within miles of the place.

Bruddah
10-12-2009, 08:01 AM
I never considered Mine that Bird a serious contender for the Goodwood. He had been off for 10 weeks and Chip Wooley spoke as if the horse was in a conditioning race. (my interpretation of his comments)

If you take those comments, as I interpreted them, then the Goodwood was a conditioning race to discover MTB's present fitness, and what needs to be done to get him at peak performance for the BC. His breeding and best performances suggest he prefers much longer distances.

Remember that MTB is a gelding and won't soon be retired to the breeding shed. If he stays healthy, he will be pointed to the Big races as a 4 yo. The connections and trainer will be pointing him to races with the largest purses. He will earn more placing and occasionally winning Grade I-II 's than running in Grade III's or lower. He may run in those races as he grows older. But, he has a while before that happens. Especially, if they can keep him healthy and happy. The horse's value is as a payday, nothing else.

Put me on record as saying, If they run him in the BC, he is a definite threat to win or place at big odds.

joanied
10-12-2009, 01:15 PM
Two things...I said in my original post that a 'no name' European horse won the Goodwood...I guess I stand corrected, as someone else mentioned he is a pretty nice colt...my apologies for not:blush: knowing a damn thing about him...

as for MTB...Bruddah you mention Woolley considering the Goodwood a 'conditioning' race for MTB...might be right about that...Woolley did say he wasn't really expecting a win...but after the race, if you saw Woolley...he sure looked considerably deafeated...if all he really wanted was to give MTB a race...why the long face? I agree that a 10 wk layoff, regardless of his training, is a long time...and the little horse probably needed that race...but, IMO, Woolley needs to get over this crap about one big run...I mentioned that somewhere else here...I don't think Woolley is much of a trainer, that is just my opinion...but in the Goodwood, MTB wanted to go...Calvin got strict instructions to keep him way back and make that one big run...so had to choke him back, and that made him climb...he even switched his tail...the little horse was not happy...IMO, he may have finished up a lot closer if allowed to run his own race...Woolley is lookin for that Derby to play out again...and, IMO...it ain't gonna happen.
When the Classic rolls around, I hope Woolley has the good sense to leave the riding up to Calvin.
:)

rokitman
10-12-2009, 01:26 PM
Hmmm...I thought Raquel Alexandre won the Goodward. :confused:

Show Me the Wire
10-12-2009, 02:36 PM
I believe every future MTB race under Wooley's care is a conditioning race to oblivion.

BetCrazyGirl
10-12-2009, 02:46 PM
I was actually surprised how high the odds were Gitano Hernando and low on MTB, then again MTB was one of the first horses I had tossed out for the Kentucky Derby :/

WinterTriangle
10-13-2009, 02:18 AM
This is no diss on Calvin, but why does Wooley keep a jock on MTB who has no experience on the tracks where he runs his big races? Belmont and Borel? Santa Anita and Borel?

Please.

MTB should have been ridden closer to the pace. He has speed. Why do they keep him back? I'd like to see what he does with a different rider, is all.

JustRalph
10-13-2009, 06:07 AM
Three pages and nobody mentions the fractions?

MTB is a huge S type Closer.......... the race was slow up front.........

23.75 48.54 112:64 136.42 148.39
means MTB can't come from the back to win. Look at the chart. Nobody came from off the pace........nobody. Of the first five finishers, They were all within 3 lengths the whole damn race. They ran it like a turf race with no speed.

MTB made up ground.....6 or 7 lengths into a slow pace......which ain't damn bad really............but they weren't stopping up front.

They basically ran 12 seconds every 8th ........that does not favor closers.
He is what he is......... a huge closer.......who won't win without the right setup. Why is that so hard to understand? :bang:

Mine that Bird needs a rabbit...........plain and simple........or he can't win. He is no different than other S types. In fact he is the personification of S types.

Java Gold@TFT
10-13-2009, 06:56 AM
Ralph, on my first glance at the Goodwood PP's I looked for the speed in the race. There was none, zero. The pace was inevitable. Who in that race was going to seriously run a good pace up front based on their PP's? Nobody. I'm pretty sure that Woolley and Borel could read the same PP's I do and knew where the horse should be placed by the backstretch. He's just not that good. No pace excuses need to be made. That's just one more excuse to add to the list. Hasn't he had an excuse for EVERY race this year except the Ky Derby?

joanied
10-13-2009, 09:24 AM
Here's a quote from Woolley in an article from the BloodHorse:

"You can’t get that far out of it when the pace is that slow," he said. "My horse closed, and he ran pretty fast when you go back and analyze the race. My horse finished up the last five-eighths in :58, but what are you gonna do? The other ones aren’t slowing down, when they go a :48.54 half. I’ll bet you there’s not a Grade I in the country run that slow for the first half mile all year--not on a fast race track."

Yes...both he & Calvin must have known there was no speed in the race...but, IMO, it is Woolley's fault, not Calvin...no doubt he told Calvin he wanted that one big run... I can't find the quote, but that is what Woolley said before the race...the horse wants one big run...so please tell me...who's fault is it:confused: ...Calvin was told how to ride, and he followed instructions...and Calvin actually did have him a little closer than usual...no speed, a shorter distance than MTB wants, and instructions that were wrong...IMO, Wolley should have told Calvin to ride the race as he saw fit...again, IMO....Woolley is not much of a trainer.

Winter T...you mention that MTB has speed...he does, and it should have been used in the Goodwood...but, again, Calvin rode to instructions...and I'm not sure another jock would have mattered...because Wolley gave the instructions, so any other jock woud have rode him the same...besides that, he has had a different jock (Mike) and that didn't do any good either...I don't know what the answer is...but, IMO, MTB will find his own 'peak' again, and when that happens...he'll win.

Moyers Pond
10-13-2009, 10:06 AM
Borel is just not a great jockey. He can win with a very talented horse and he can win when things fall his way, but he simply has never been able to figure out a race as it is being run.

There is a reason why Borel is so miserable at the top meets like Saratoga. He simply is not that good. He wins when things fall in his lap.


Mine That Bird is an interesting horse in the Classic. I think 10f is his distance and I think he could run a huge race 2nd off the layoff. I just don't know if he is that talented. It would not shock me though if he won the Classic. He already shocked me once this year, it won't happen again. He is a legitimate top racehorse. He just might not be as good as the Euros.

Bochall
10-13-2009, 10:40 AM
Good points from all about MTB...unless my eyes deceive me (and I am nearing the age when they will!) MTB really kicked it into gear the last 1/8 or so. Didnt he flash into your TV screen inside the 1/16 pole? Maybe another furlong gets him a share....? Two problems with him approaching the Classic 1) his connections dont seem too enthused/optimistic about his tries at SA and 2) as fast as he can finish, is it better than what Europe is sending? All over Tiago last year and Giacomo in '06 as underneath keys in the tri. Missed both times though as I simply did not have a 1-2 Euro finish last year and Giacomo rolled up for 4th only. In that regard, MTB can be used, but I cant see him hitting the exacta....even at his Derby price.

JustRalph
10-13-2009, 06:40 PM
Ralph, on my first glance at the Goodwood PP's I looked for the speed in the race. There was none, zero. The pace was inevitable. Who in that race was going to seriously run a good pace up front based on their PP's? Nobody. I'm pretty sure that Woolley and Borel could read the same PP's I do and knew where the horse should be placed by the backstretch. He's just not that good. No pace excuses need to be made. That's just one more excuse to add to the list. Hasn't he had an excuse for EVERY race this year except the Ky Derby?

I didn't say it was an excuse. I just stated the facts. Horses like this win about 11% of races overall. He got what he needed in the Derby......he is still a pretty good horse........but he needs some pace. If I was the trainer, I would find a rabbit and buy him a partner. This is what they did for "Better Talk Now" and he made a ton of money........if my memory serves me right.

plainolebill
10-13-2009, 11:21 PM
He is a one run horse that's certain, but Borel left him too much to do - he just isn't going to make up 7-8 lengths in the stretch. If Borel is 7 lengths back at the stretch call in the Classic he's toast, even if it is 10F. The stretch is still the same length.

Calvin needs to pay attention, the riders aren't pushing horses along early on the pro-ride and he needs to stay closer.

Not saying that he would win in any case but I think he'd have a better shot.

the_fat_man
10-14-2009, 12:22 AM
Three pages and nobody mentions the fractions?

.......... the race was slow up front.........

23.75 48.54 112:64 136.42 148.39
Look at the chart. Nobody came from off the pace........nobody. Of the first five finishers, They were all within 3 lengths the whole damn race. They ran it like a turf race with no speed.


That's one way of looking at it. Another would be that the horses that were 1-2-3 at the half finished 9th, 4th, and 8th. So, yeah, the pace certainly favored those up front. :rolleyes:

JustRalph
10-14-2009, 05:59 AM
That's one way of looking at it. Another would be that the horses that were 1-2-3 at the half finished 9th, 4th, and 8th. So, yeah, the pace certainly favored those up front. :rolleyes:


The point is, if you weren't close up......there was no pace to close into. No argument that the field was closed up the entire trip. Btw, that's why they don't pay for winning at the 1/2 .............nobody was making up 10L on that field. Never, not with those fractions.

Robert Fischer
10-16-2009, 01:36 PM
That's one way of looking at it. Another would be that the horses that were 1-2-3 at the half finished 9th, 4th, and 8th. So, yeah, the pace certainly favored those up front. :rolleyes:

thats an over-simplified way to look at it. The horses who were 1-3 and finished 9th,8th were pigs that gave absolutely no clues as to what the pace was favoring. 25-1 and 33-1 and they should have been higher, particularly tresnachotaco who should have been around 60-1.
With an absolutely fair set-up Tresbarachos finishes no better than about 7th or 8th. With a forward -favoring setup he finishes 5th or worse. It's obvious when you consider everything that the sweet-spot was probably somewhere around 2-5 lengths at the half, but Threetacos and Informed didn't really contribute much to that estimate in this particular case. :p

MTB shouldn't be used to judge the pace either, he wasnt' expected to make a winning bid even with a decent setup. He would have needed a lucky mega-biased setup to even compete.

11cashcall
10-16-2009, 01:52 PM
MTB was the Canadian champion juvenile running on Woodbine's synthetic.

Do you dirt-freaks hear yourselves?


Was wondering when someone would get around to this.Also i dont really agree with the one -hit wonder. Its much easier going syn-to dirt than dirt
to syn.There's also the development factor to consider with each individual
animal.

Examples:IWR exploded on dirt,Tiago going from Cal to OP,just to name 2 & their are others.Why?

bisket
10-16-2009, 01:54 PM
seems everyone is overlooking the one bonafide closer that wasn't far from winning in a race to short for him. my horsey rich's kid has begun to run a faster first mile thats making him a horse that doesn't need a certain pace to win. thats ok all this means is he's gonna pay good again!!!! woooohoo da bisket gonna a get a new pair of star fighters from cliffy after this one because the force is with him in the classic :p this year :ThmbUp:

the_fat_man
10-16-2009, 02:00 PM
thats an over-simplified way to look at it.

I've had this discussion many times over at DT. And, quite a few there (ateam, nick, etc.) felt the need to explain to me that my view is NAIVE. The end result, as you know, is that I'm not wrong often (As I proved in the most recent version of this argument with Kodiak Kowboy).

When you start judging horses' races by the way you think they ran based on their numbers, rather than how they actually ran, based on the setup, you're making biased conclusions.

Horses are neither as good or bad as they seem. Most can't run unless they get favorable setups. When they get them, they run fast, when they don't they run slower. When ENTIRE SECTIONS of races "COLLAPSE", it can't really be the case that they all ran bad --- unless, of course, your numbers tell you that they did.

Robert Fischer
10-16-2009, 10:47 PM
I've had this discussion many times over at DT. And, quite a few there (ateam, nick, etc.) felt the need to explain to me that my view is NAIVE. The end result, as you know, is that I'm not wrong often (As I proved in the most recent version of this argument with Kodiak Kowboy).

When you start judging horses' races by the way you think they ran based on their numbers, rather than how they actually ran, based on the setup, you're making biased conclusions.

Horses are neither as good or bad as they seem. Most can't run unless they get favorable setups. When they get them, they run fast, when they don't they run slower. When ENTIRE SECTIONS of races "COLLAPSE", it can't really be the case that they all ran bad --- unless, of course, your numbers tell you that they did.

no , thats not naive. You do it the way you want to do it. You've taken the technique farther than most. You might even be right. I still try to estimate how good or bad these horses are in general and allow for it when looking at the setups. I might be the one barking up the wrong tree. I shouldn't have really said you were being ove-simplified.