Specializing-Layoffs?

[andicap]

I was thinking this morning as I was looking at Belmont's 1st today with all the layoff horses -- could you make money specializing on layoff horses?

That is, research the factors that win layoff races -- trainer angles, what class a horse returns in, jockey selection, workouts, etc. -- and just bet
layoff horses going off at attractive odds that fit a "Win" model?

The appeal of this is that most people have absolutely no handle at all
on how to handle layoffs. Handicapping books advise two things:

1. How did the horse do the last time off a layoff.
2. Trainer's record.

But a horse may not show a simlar layoff in his record and just because he did well last time doesn't mean he will this time. It could be a more serious injury or a different trainer who likes to ease back into the racing, etc.

As far as the trainer's record, BRIS and DRF just show a single stat.
How about more factors: layoffs with a certain workout pattern. Layoff same class. Layoff drop in class. Layoff/certain jockey. etc.

[Shacopate]

First, I look at how the horse perfomed after a previous layoff of similar length.

Second, if the trainer with the high layoff % is using his top jock, then to me, it's very encouraging.

I've found that layoff horses in turf races often run well as long as they are properly placed.

[Valuist]

I believe layoff horses have a big advantage in Maiden races. If you keep key races you'll see what I mean. Sometimes you'll see a horse coming off a 6 month layoff and you go thru the chart from their previous race and see that 6 or 7 or the horses in that field have since broke their Maidens. Maybe not all in their next race but eventually. It may have been a Mdn race at the time but in reality it was allowance quality. The same could be said for NW1X and NW2 claiming.

[blind squirrel]

there's a guy at that specializes
in lay offs and claims.....ED BAIN....He does extensive
research in this area......handicapping data warehouse.
horsedata.com

[Shacopate]

Beyer thinks young horses generally improve by 2 points a month when laid off. If the previous number is competetive with todays feild then a 3 year old on a 6 month layoff becomes very dangerous. REPENT for example.

If a horse runs well off a long layoff and is then has another layoff I will avoid it.

[pic6vic]

Blind Squirrel's response is right on. he has a web site. He produces massive records each day. The subscription is $129 per month, but well worth it if you play big enough or enough tracks.

He also wrote a book called 4+30. Which stands for 4 winners and at least 30% winners off a layoff of 45 days or more or a recent claim.

The work has already been done and is updated daily

[pic6vic]

Andicap

Try this website www.edbain.com/instruct.htm


This is handled thru HDW and if you call they will give you all the details. 502 570 0333. They will even give you a current example.

I used them for about 8 months and had to stop as I couldn't play enough to warrant the outlay. I knew my home track ell enough. If you have any questions please e-mail me I will try to answer

[andicap]

Bain approaches the layoff subject strictly through trainers. That's fine, but
I was wondering about broadening it to look at them through other
factors besides trainers.

I'm not necessarily interested in how people handicap layoff horses, but
whether you can specialize -- play JUST LAYOFF horses -- and succeed.
Of course you wouldn't bet every race, you'd only bet the layoff horses that fit the model.

[pic6vic]

Andicap

That is whathe Ed Bain does. Only bets layoff horses. The answer to your question is yes it can be done.

[spotwinshow]

There is a + roi in 6-12 week layoffs- time off to refresh or minor problems. Front wraps are even better! More than 12 weeks means major trouble anmd re-conditioning.
My eliminations can win after 12 weeks, but with negative roi.

[hracingplyr]

save your money u will loose your shirt using this guys stuff, 2 yrs ago he had 36 str8 losers in a row, he closed down his msg board because he could not take the flack he was getting

[Blackgold]

Ladies and Gents. . .

I had the distinct priviledge of studying, in my own fashion, layoff horses quite extensively.

Beginning in early '90's I read a lot of Mark Cramer and started buying Olmsted's Pocket Trainer Guide.

In Feb. '95 I enjoyed standing at the finish line at Santa Anita when an 9-1 shot called Russian Courage with Kent D. up romped home in the 8th to save my day as I had wagered $100 w/p. That was also the year of Lucas Serena's Song, coupled with Grindstone in the Derby.

Anyway, Russian Courage was coming off a layoff and had previously been competitive at 80cl and today was running at 50. And the trainer had shown a tendency to produce a price with layoff horses.

From then I was hooked.

No more long, labor of producing pace lines, only to see my figure horses run 2-3 with some longie that didn't figure top off a big exacta, tri and cream the win pool.

So I continued to scan the form, being a mostly weekend bomber and had some success.

Lo and behold, the last part of '98 and '99 saw me with a year's severance from my employer and I bought both the am and pm editions of the racing form and just looked for layoff angles.

And I caught some good ones. A 36-1 maiden claimer that topped a $300 quinella and a $9,000 tri. Etc. etc.

By late spring '99 I sorted all my wins/losses and put it in a database and here were my conclusions.

RECENT WORKS- more often that not, a horse showed 3 works in the last 15 days. In rare occasions, a work within the last 5-7 days. In the case of mdn, little published works mattered if I could decifer they were down on the farm.

CLASS- some type of class drop did figure. My best results were most noticible class drops like MDN to MCL or a try at Stakes company and then return from layoff to ALnw1. Or a drop in claiming price, especially on the turf.

TRAINER/JOCKEY- In most cases, the trainer/jockey had been winning at a good clip together.

TYPES OF RACES-
TURF I hit 50% with avg. take per race = $466 (figuring I bet $50 to win and another $100 in exotics, keying longie in exacta and tri.)
CLAIMING-15%, $232 avg. net per race
MCL-21%, $141 avg. net per race
ALW (especially nw1 & 2)-50% hit rate with $452 avg. take.

Based on that, I then spent the rest of the year focusong on Turf and AlwNW1 and MCL, only at odds of 5-1 and higher for MCL.

I must say, one can simply wait for spots and get some super prices.

Two in particular come to mind. In Jan. '99 a horse was coming back from Nov. layoff at SA. Had shown previous success at $100K cl at Hollywood and today was at $60K. Had the works and pace line showed he had the goods if he showed up that day. Well he went off at 50-1 from 15-1 ML and won the race. Not so fast. Inquiry sign went up and he was bumbed from 1st to 3rd. Yet, my $36 tri saver, keying him in 3rd with my other two primes in 1st with all 2nd paid only $1,800.

The year ended with a whopper on Dec. 22nd, a dark Thur. nite at Turfway. A MDN-MCL dropper with only one effort at MDN was coming back from a layoff with a trainer known for these tactics. Was owned and bred by same connections and I read into that off track works. Well this horse, Evelite, went to the front at 30-1 only to get nailed at the wire. I had a win bet and a tri key with her in 3rd and an exacta key with 3 other lightly raced MDN-MCL droppers. The longest shot on the board finished first and the exacta paid over $700 and I had it 15 times.

Yes Virginia, there is lots to be earned by doing what Mark Cramer calls guerilla handicapping. . .waiting in the hills until one has the advantage.

With my Youbet.com account and other various ways to "get" to the races, you can do very well scanning lots of races and jumping in with both fists when you have an advantage.

[Larry Hamilton]

Serena's Song wasnt coupled, though Lukas did have 3 horses in that race: Serena's Song, Timber Country and Thunder Gulch--won by Thunder Gulch over Tejanos Run. Grindstone was coupled with Editors Note in a different year and beat Cavonnier by the width of my wallet..

[ranchwest]

Originally posted by hracingplyr
save your money u will loose your shirt using this guys stuff, 2 yrs ago he had 36 str8 losers in a row, he closed down his msg board because he could not take the flack he was getting

Ed closed his message board because someone was posting personal attacks against Ed and his wife, things that had nothing to do with horses.

[andicap]

Blackgold,
Do you keep copious records -- like do you know how a certain trainer is dropping from MSW to MCL (5-11 in sprints for example).
If not, do you keep track of the winners for trainers, jotting down layoff patterns for certain conditioners?
Or do you do work in that regard and just look for certain form patterns that you know work by your research?

Thanks,

[Shacopate]

This was a five year-old maiden coming off a THREE YEAR LAYOFF at Churchill Downs last year. I was scratching my head after he torched the field. The price was HUGE.

[Blackgold]

I keep records on my own blue chip trainer list, although they tend to have tremendous in and out cycles., i.e. Ron McAnally- as I haven't had a layoff win with him in years.

I do follow the work of Olmsted, although he hasn't issued his guide since '02, but e-mailed to me that he plans to in the fall.

I pay special attention to the percentages in BRIS as to layoffs, etc. But just because a certain percentage comes up high and I don't see the horse passing my class, works, distance filters. I pass.

And I do not rely on the precentages at all in MDN races, I simply look for litely raced horses, works- or implied farm works, such as owner/breeder-even trainer being the same person. And I look for a class drop. But I will pass the race if I can't wholesale eliminate most of the field as you can often do in MCL races.

[Rick]

I've considered developing a spot play for layoff horses with a high frequency of recent workouts based on some studies I did a while back. I haven't gotten around to it yet, but I think the idea would be profitable if you don't mind betting longshots and suffering through the long losing streaks. My guess is that it would hit about 15% wins, but I'm sure there are ways to improve that by looking at performances before the layoff and jockey/trainer statistics.

[so.cal.fan]

Rick:
I think you may have something on the layoff/work patterns.
I am convinced that the higher rate of winning layoff horses is due to the use of Clenbuterol.......maybe not race day use, but use in training up to race.....I have spoken to a few top trainers who have opined that Clenbuterol really helps horses train up to a race better. In fact I haven't ever heard any opines to the contrary.
So.......your studies should be ones in recent years.....I would be hesitant to go back too far. Just a hunch.
Good luck, Rick......let us know how it goes.

[Fastracehorse]

I can tell you that I really like sprinters coming off year lay-offs.

As long as they have shown competitive figs in the past.

fffastt

[Rick]

Also, early speed horses may handle layoffs better than closers.