Zenyatta cuttin it close??

[Hanover1]

Is it just me, or is Zen starting to look vulnerable? I know a win is a win, no matter how you slice it, but I see a set of fractions that could compromise her soon. Is she approaching the "wall"? Granted, Smith has timed her moves perfectly for the most part, but I wanted to toss this out before upcoming race this Saturday to get some feedback.

[menifee]

I actually think she is vulnerable here to Cocoa Beach. Cocoa Beach has not matched in her '08 form, but she has been working great. I have a feeling that the pace will not be demanding and that Cocoa Beach will sit closer than she did in the Breeders Cup Ladies Classic last year. 4 or 5 back on the rail She'll get first run and if the pace is what I expect, she might be difficult to catch. Zenyatta's biggest weakness is her running style.

Zenyatta does love this track as she has put up her best beyers here.

[WinterTriangle]

Smith always looks like he's "riding scared" on Zenyatta.


Gonna see what Cocoa does in the Lady's Secret.

Godolphin seems to have done wonders with Pyro and Music Note....Cocoa Beach can run on turf, synth, or dirt.

It's been noted in DRF that "whenever a conflict has arisen this year with another older filly or mare owned by Godolphin Racing, CB often had to go to a less-desirable spot to accommodate a stablemate who is more of a specialist." Now, she will shine, I think.

Lady's Secret:

Last 2 races, over slop and then with no pace. Throw those out!

I love the chilean horsies anyway.

I *want* Zenyatta to win the Lady's Secret,but looking for better odds.

Factor I need to handicap is weather. Hope it's not real hot. Until then, I may be playing a Zenyatta/Lethal Heat/Cocoa Beach box.

[Robert Fischer]

cocoa
anabaa
lethal heat
briecat
made4magic
all five have a shot(on paper). I haven't done the work here to really get an accurate insight into these five, but the theme is somewhat decent forwardly placed runners. Should they work together, a couple of them should be around at the finish. Box those five, put them in doubles and pick 3s. Handicap the damn race and you should be able to eliminate 1 of the 5 even...

Zenyatta herself is a great race horse. She is obviously the best in this field, and would need a disadvantageous setup to lose. However there is a fair chance that being the obvious threat, and a closer, AND following a jockey team-up where she nearly lost that she will get that disadvantageous setup. Eventually the setup and distance will get her.

What bothers me here isn't the chance of her losing it is the distance of this race. 1 1/16th? Again??:ThmbDown:
8.5F is about as cheap as you can get for a route distance.
She appears to be a big monster who could get 9 or 10 furlongs, but 8 of her 12 lifetime races have been @ 1 1/16th. This will be her 3rd @ 8.5 out of 4 races this year! Is there some defect of hers, where she can't get a classic distance in spite of the tremendous talent she has really CONVINCINGLY shown us?? NO!
The classic distance for fillies and mares is 9 furlongs. The Breeders Cup Classic and male classic distance is 10 furlongs. Not only is it a highly questionable campaign to win North Americas greatest race of 2009(BCC) which is run at a furlong farther than she has run?, she may actually be at a disadvantage vs mares going 1 1/16th rather than 9 furlongs. Some of these mares may be milers, yet given an easy pace they can challenge/bother Zenyatta at 8.5furlongs.

Love to see her race. I'll cheer for / likely bet against.

[Zenyatta To Crush]

I don't think Zenyatta has lost a step at all. Its been Mike Smith not realizing how slow the fractions are and underestimating the competition. You can be sure that he'll be more aware of the fractions this Saturday. I feel like it'll be a nice easy 2 length win with Smith giving her a nice easy hand ride after going 5 wide off the turn. All those doubters who say she has lost a step will be proven wrong shortly. Unless of course Mike Smith is a dumber jockey than I thought and lets them get away with a 1:13 fraction. Then I'll start up an anti Mike Smith thread

[Java Gold@TFT]

The last race had nothing to do with the fractions. Smith either belived or was told that the only horse he had to beat was Life Is Sweet. Watch the race again. She was the only horse he was paying attention to. They could have run 44 or 49 up front and he was still going to sit on top of Life Is Sweet.

I still wish she would have gone to the Goodwood. Then maybe Gomez gets the mount on Mine That Bird and Smith and Gomez could have a casual conversation down the backstretch as Zenyatta and MTB battle to see who can fall farther behind. It really would be quite funny to watch. But, alas, she can't run against boys so it's all moot.

[bisket]

i said after her last race when she got there just in time: she's reminding me of stardom bound earlier this year. every succesive race the field has gotten a little closer to her level. i'm still having a hard time picking any one of these against her. i'm going to be looking at the pps today. i have a wedding to attend tomorrow so i don't know if i'll wager. although i'm going to try to wager before i leave for the affair tomorrow.

[bisket]

The last race had nothing to do with the fractions. Smith either belived or was told that the only horse he had to beat was Life Is Sweet. Watch the race again. She was the only horse he was paying attention to. They could have run 44 or 49 up front and he was still going to sit on top of Life Is Sweet.

I still wish she would have gone to the Goodwood. Then maybe Gomez gets the mount on Mine That Bird and Smith and Gomez could have a casual conversation down the backstretch as Zenyatta and MTB battle to see who can fall farther behind. It really would be quite funny to watch. But, alas, she can't run against boys so it's all moot.
there was a horse (can't think of her name) that was scratched in the morning that if she ran would have won that race. i'm sure of it. i liked her too.

[hazzardm]

i said after her last race when she got there just in time: she's reminding me of stardom bound earlier this year. every succesive race the field has gotten a little closer to her level. i'm still having a hard time picking any one of these against her. i'm going to be looking at the pps today. i have a wedding to attend tomorrow so i don't know if i'll wager. although i'm going to try to wager before i leave for the affair tomorrow.

I recently (last couple weeks) saw a Shireff's quote along the lines that they haven't really geared her up until the Del Mar Hirsch. Couldn't find the distance of stretch at Dmr vs. SA, but I think SA has a bit more length.

[46zilzal]

Deep closers are always walking on the edge of defeat just because of their position late. If a single horse, on or near the pace, collapses (energy wise) and gets in the way of this late move, it is over.

This one must be very good and very lucky to have kept it alive so long but then I believe it has something to do with small field size as well.

[46zilzal]

I recently (last couple weeks) saw a Shireff's quote along the lines that they haven't really geared her up until the Del Mar Hirsch. Couldn't find the distance of stretch at Dmr vs. SA, but I think SA has a bit more length.
Del Mar 832 feet
Anita 990 feet

[hazzardm]

Del Mar 832 feet
Anita 990 feet

I think that gives Z about 7 or 8 more strides. ;)

[46zilzal]

I think that gives Z about 7 or 8 more strides. ;)
PLUS that form of SYNTHOCRAP helps a late mover grip the surface

[joanied]

It's a good race weekend coming up...but I think all eyes are on the Lady's Secret & Goodwood...and needless to say, it's that time to start watching the youngsters...
But, this thread is the Lady's Secret...hey...Winter Triangle, we're almost on the same page...my pix:

Zenyatta:jump:
Cocoa Beach
Lethal Heat
Life is Sweet

If Z looses this, I'll be stunned, and very sad...Go, Z, GO!!
I do beleive the other jocks will be playing games in this one, and try to outfox Mike...he's been playing too close to the vest in her last couple of races...he'd better be on his toes tomorrow and I hope the clock in his head is set right:faint: