Zenyatta 10/1 to win Classic?

[CBedo]

I had TVG on as background noise and think I just heard Ken Rudloph say that Zenyatta was 10/1 to win the Classic in Vegas.

If I heard that right, I'm wondering what you all think makes up this 10/1 bet--how much is her true odds of winning the classic, and how much is the probability that she will actually run in it? Either my guess at the lack of probability of her going is way too low, or this is a terrible bet (or both).

If it's not clear what I'm getting at, let me illustrate:

If there is only a 10% chance of Zenyatta running the Classic, then she has to win about 90% of the time she does run to breakeven at 10/1. If she goes 20% of the time, she still has to win 45.5% to breakeven. Does anyone think there is greater than a 1 in 5 chance she goes to the Classic?

I guess the other way to approach this would be to say "what would her odds be if she ran?" Then work back into what the probability she runs is.

Just weird rambling thoughts today (needed a break with what I'm working on) :bang:

[bisket]

she won't even run in the classic. that crowd actually enter her in a horse race :rolleyes: come on!!!!

[InsideThePylons-MW]

What's funny is at 10-1 they ought to be put in prison, but if you went up to the window and told them you wanted to bet $10,000 at 10-1, they would have security escort you out of the building.

[CBedo]

she won't even run in the classic. that crowd actually enter her in a horse race :rolleyes: come on!!!!that's my point. 10/1 sounds good if she runs (maybe), but the likelihood of her running makes 10/1 a terrible proposition.

[Hanover1]

If she runs, and gets off at 10-1, Im tapped out to show.........fire with all barrels.......

[CBedo]

If she runs, and gets off at 10-1, Im tapped out to show.........fire with all barrels.......I'm sure that's the thinking that is making Vegas some money. Obviously, she wouldn't be 10/1 if she ran, but you have to take into account the probability that she runs. Same thing gets people in the Derby futures every year.

[Steve R]

that's my point. 10/1 sounds good if she runs (maybe), but the likelihood of her running makes 10/1 a terrible proposition.
FWIW, the lowest winning Beyer Figure for the BC Classic since 1990 is 110 with an average of 116.5. Zenyatta has three figures this year of 103, 104 and 99 and her lifetime top is 108. Lord knows I'm not a devotee of Beyer Figures, but the guy can't possibly be that far off. The mare's best ever figure is 6 lengths behind the average BC Classic win. Frankly, I think 10-1 (if she starts) is a huge underlay.

My own figures over the last decade show her median number is 6 1/2 lengths behind the median BC Classic winning number.

[ghostyapper]

FWIW, the lowest winning Beyer Figure for the BC Classic since 1990 is 110 with an average of 116.5. Zenyatta has three figures this year of 103, 104 and 99 and her lifetime top is 108. Lord knows I'm not a devotee of Beyer Figures, but the guy can't possibly be that far off. The mare's best ever figure is 6 lengths behind the average BC Classic win. Frankly, I think 10-1 (if she starts) is a huge underlay.

My own figures over the last decade show her median number is 6 1/2 lengths behind the median BC Classic winning number.

You are comparing beyers on dirt to beyers on plastic which are generally lower. Her assignment of 103 for last year's bc leaves more questions than answers. She had just come off running 2 straight 108's but digressed in the bc while running a sub 12 final furlong?

Raven's pass got a 110 for his classic win and I don't know many people who were more impressed with his performance than hers.

If you want to go with that she's lost a step this year fine but don't say her best doesn't make her a serious contender.

[Steve R]

You are comparing beyers on dirt to beyers on plastic which are generally lower. Her assignment of 103 for last year's bc leaves more questions than answers. She had just come off running 2 straight 108's but digressed in the bc while running a sub 12 final furlong?

Raven's pass got a 110 for his classic win and I don't know many people who were more impressed with his performance than hers.

If you want to go with that she's lost a step this year fine but don't say her best doesn't make her a serious contender.
My own figures confirm she is not a Classic contender and unlike Beyer Figures they do not discriminate against synthetic surfaces. An analysis comparing my winning figures in graded races beyond a mile at SA, HOL and DMR on the AWS for 2007-2009 and on dirt for 2004-2006 results in no statistically significant difference.

Your anecdotal references to "impressive" performances are of no value to this discussion. OTOH, Beyer has Raven's Pass' Classic as the lowest rated BC Classic since 1990 while I have it better than Saint Liam's, Volponi's and Tiznow's first and within a length of Invasor's since 1999 when I began archiving the numbers. So using my figures (which have no relationship in terms of methodology to Beyer's), I flatly reject your thesis of a figure bias against the AWS.

BTW, I strongly supported Zenyatta for HOY last year over Curlin and felt she had been robbed when the award was given to the colt.

And I believe you mean "regressed", not "digressed".

[castaway01]

I had TVG on as background noise and think I just heard Ken Rudloph say that Zenyatta was 10/1 to win the Classic in Vegas.

If I heard that right, I'm wondering what you all think makes up this 10/1 bet--how much is her true odds of winning the classic, and how much is the probability that she will actually run in it? Either my guess at the lack of probability of her going is way too low, or this is a terrible bet (or both).

If it's not clear what I'm getting at, let me illustrate:

If there is only a 10% chance of Zenyatta running the Classic, then she has to win about 90% of the time she does run to breakeven at 10/1. If she goes 20% of the time, she still has to win 45.5% to breakeven. Does anyone think there is greater than a 1 in 5 chance she goes to the Classic?

I guess the other way to approach this would be to say "what would her odds be if she ran?" Then work back into what the probability she runs is.

Just weird rambling thoughts today (needed a break with what I'm working on) :bang:

It's all about drawing bets from a few suckers who might see her name, think "Hey, why not?" or "Hey, she's usually 1-5 and now she's 10-1" or some other craziness. It's all about getting people to bet---that's what they specialize in. But of course it's an awful, ridiculous wager.

[Cratos]

I had TVG on as background noise and think I just heard Ken Rudloph say that Zenyatta was 10/1 to win the Classic in Vegas.

If I heard that right, I'm wondering what you all think makes up this 10/1 bet--how much is her true odds of winning the classic, and how much is the probability that she will actually run in it? Either my guess at the lack of probability of her going is way too low, or this is a terrible bet (or both).

If it's not clear what I'm getting at, let me illustrate:

If there is only a 10% chance of Zenyatta running the Classic, then she has to win about 90% of the time she does run to breakeven at 10/1. If she goes 20% of the time, she still has to win 45.5% to breakeven. Does anyone think there is greater than a 1 in 5 chance she goes to the Classic?

I guess the other way to approach this would be to say "what would her odds be if she ran?" Then work back into what the probability she runs is.

Just weird rambling thoughts today (needed a break with what I'm working on) :bang:

10:1 is generous for a “come from behind” 5yo mare that has never run beyond 1 1/8 miles and is going against older horses (colts and geldings) in a Grade 1 1 ¼ mile race. I would make her 10:1 to show.

[ghostyapper]

Your anecdotal references to "impressive" performances are of no value to this discussion.

As are your proprietary figures which supposedly eliminate zenyatta as a classic contender.

And I believe you meant to refer to curlin in 2008 as a "horse", not a "colt"

[GaryG]

I see that Midday is coming to run in the F&M Turf. Too bad, I would like to see her drill Zenyatta on the poly at a square price.

[FenceBored]

And I believe you meant to refer to curlin in 2008 as a "horse", not a "colt"

Why would he do that?

Gender of a Horse


Colt: An entire male horse four years old or younger.
Horse: When reference is made to gender, a "horse" is an entire male five years old or older.
Ridgling ("rig"): A lay term used to describe either a monorchid or cryptorchid.
Cryptorchid: A male horse of any age that has no testes in his scrotum but was never gelded (the testes are undescended).
Monorchid: A male horse of any age that has only one testicle in his scrotum (the other testicle was either removed or is undescended).
Gelding: A male horse of any age that is unsexed (had both testicles removed).
Filly: A female horse four years old or younger.
Mare: A female horse five years old or older.
-- http://www.jockeyclub.com/registry.asp?section=3#glossary

[11cashcall]

I see that Midday is coming to run in the F&M Turf. Too bad, I would like to see her drill Zenyatta on the poly at a square price.



Yeah i was bummed out too when i heard the news abt. MD not going in the LC,I guess for breeding purposes the Euros are finanically more sound with her possibly winning the FMT.

Although i am betting on the Ladies Secret this wk. :)

[Steve R]

As are your proprietary figures which supposedly eliminate zenyatta as a classic contender.

And I believe you meant to refer to curlin in 2008 as a "horse", not a "colt"
Regardless of whether you accept their validity, describing measured data as anecdotal is nothing short of bizarre, particularly in contrast to subjective impressions.

And FYI, it is the convention in Thoroughbred racing to use the terms "filly" and "colt" to describe females and entire males through the age of four. Dogwood Stable's racing roster web page even labels all of their ungelded older males as colts regardless of age. More to the point, and suggesting you don't read the Form very closely, four-year-old ungelded males are listed as colts in past performances. To illustrate, the DRF PPs for the recent Woodward Stakes list the four-year-old Macho Again as a gray or roan colt (gr/ro. c.) and the five-year-old Bullsbay as a bay horse (b. h.). The same differentiation is used for the four-year-old colts Da' Tara and Cool Coal Man and for the older horses It's a Bird and Asiatic Boy.

Are you really that unfamiliar with DRF?