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turfbar
10-06-2009, 10:06 AM
I read somewhere at sometime a CRAZY %(percentage) of horses dropping in class win,something like 68% . Anybody know where I read a figure like that or who said it. Im trying to jog my memory where I read it and not sure who it was, Quinn, Brohamer , Mark Cramer ?


TIA
Turfbar

Tom
10-06-2009, 11:13 AM
Quinn at one time said horses dropping 30% win more than their share. I don't remember the IV, but Overlay might know it.


......time for 46 reasons why class doesn't exist? :D

bettheoverlay
10-06-2009, 01:18 PM
Class droppers by purse value 30% or more I have at about 14%w and .80% roi and an IV around 1.2.

Tom
10-06-2009, 01:59 PM
I think he was using claiming price, not purse value. Can you query that?

fmolf
10-06-2009, 10:54 PM
I think he was using claiming price, not purse value. Can you query that?
he was using purse value and excluded horses dropping off a win or off the claim if i remember correctly.

Steve 'StatMan'
10-07-2009, 12:04 AM
I know it is a big factor when MSW's drop to Mdn Claiming, esp if they've shown anything in MSW's. Sorry I can't quantify it though.

bettheoverlay
10-07-2009, 03:36 AM
Overall 11%w and.73roi for msw to mclaimer. If you add a strong early speed factor and confine to sprints, the win % goes way up. Unfortunately, it has become one of the most overbet angles around.

illinoisbred
10-07-2009, 07:12 AM
[QUOTE=turfbar]I read somewhere at sometime a CRAZY %(percentage) of horses dropping in class win,something like 68% . Anybody know where I read a figure like that or who said it. Im trying to jog my memory where I read it and not sure who it was, Quinn, Brohamer , Mark Cramer ?


TIA
Turfbar[/Quinn makes that claim in the 1st edition of The Handicapper's Condition Book.I don't think he claimed 68%.though. I've always found big drops to be key depending on who is the trainer. Someone else mentioned the Maid. Spec. dropper -that used to be one of the best bets when they had pace figures that were Maid. Spec. worthy and now they're in a Maid. Claim. Their finishing ability never matters. I used to win approx 45% on those with an ave. mutual around 13.00. One can still have that win%- the ave. price now seems to about 6.00.

Overlay
10-07-2009, 08:41 AM
The highest winning percentage that I found in Quirin's Winning at the Races for any category of drop-downs was 29.4% for claiming horses dropping in claiming price from a "good race" (as defined by Quirin) in their last start, and ridden today by a jockey who either had ridden a "good race" on the horse somewhere in its past performances, or was among the top five riders in victories at the current race meeting. (This was on page 134 of the book.) Such horses showed a positive return (at that time) of +6.5%. (The associated impact value was 2.55.)

bettheoverlay
10-07-2009, 02:50 PM
Interesting msw to mdncl dropper in the first at Santa Anita today- Linda's Surprise. Good early speed, 8/1 morning line. Trainer Cho is 2 for the last year in Southern Cal. Only 3 of his his last 35 starters have gone off at less than 5/1.