Lets play: Guess the prices at Golden Gate

[Imriledup]

11 horse field in Oct 4th's Ninth race.


5-1 winner
79-1 second
81-1 third
44-1 fourth

Guess what these payoffs should be and then go and check for yourself and see how close you came.

The official numbers were 10-1-11-2

[FantasticDan]

The chart:

http://www.equibase.com/static/chart/pdf/GG100409USA9.pdf

Just to make it easier for everyone :ThmbUp:

[Imriledup]

Thanks dan. Guess before you look.

Also, tell me if you think that anyone who hit the exacta, tri and Super got paid accordingly. Thanks.

[affirmedny]

Thanks dan. Guess before you look.

Also, tell me if you think that anyone who hit the exacta, tri and Super got paid accordingly. Thanks.


Exacta was short, the other prices are pretty much in line although I would think the super would have paid more when u compare to the trifecta.

[InsideThePylons-MW]

Sherman knew.....

His other horse, the favorite was no good

His horse that won was a cinch



Play accordingly and see how you do.

Maybe he knew 1 or 2 others were no good....that makes it real easy

[Hosshead]

Sherman knew.....

His other horse, the favorite was no good
His horse that won was a cinch



Play accordingly and see how you do.

Maybe he knew 1 or 2 others were no good....that makes it real easy
This is what mandatory entries are supposed to prevent.

[Imriledup]

Interesting. I was amazed at how short the exacta was and the super was brutally low.

[Hosshead]

This is what mandatory entries are supposed to prevent.
I meant coupled entries of course.

[Java Gold@TFT]

Interesting. I was amazed at how short the exacta was and the super was brutally low.
Looking at the pool sizes the only one that seems off to me would be the exacta payoff. Rough estimate math says that $2.50 worth of super winners were sold in a pool of $71k. Maybe 25 ten cent tickets is a little high but not unreasonable for people spreading in a field like that. Maybe my math is off though.

[Imriledup]

Looking at the pool sizes the only one that seems off to me would be the exacta payoff. Rough estimate math says that $2.50 worth of super winners were sold in a pool of $71k. Maybe 25 ten cent tickets is a little high but not unreasonable for people spreading in a field like that. Maybe my math is off though.

In an 11 horse field, there are 990 possible trifecta combinations and 7,920 superfecta combinations.

To box all the runners in the tri would cost 990 and to box the entire field in the super for a dime would cost 792. Its not that much easier to hit the super than it is to hit the trifecta, you still have to spend 80 percent of what you would have to spend on the tri to guarantee yourself to hit the bet.

There was a superfecta at Santa Anita on opening day that paid 13,000 for a dime. That pool was 83,700, which means there was only like 4 of 5 dimes total on the winning combo out of 83,700 wagered. This GG pool was 10 grand LESS and somehow had 5 times the amount of money wagered on the winning numbers?

Also, the Santa Anita race on paper was more wide open than the GG race. In the SA race, the favorite was lukewarm 5-2 and was a firster with a bad post, if there was ever a race to spread, that was it.

In the GG race, the favorite was Russel on an 8-5 shot that almost always hit the super. This GG race was harder to hit than the SA race and yet there were 5 times the amount on the winning super combo.

The SA race the tri paid 10k for a buck and there was a 6-1 shot for 4th and the super paid 13 times the tri. At GG, the tri paid more and the 4th horse was 40-1 and the super was 'crushed'

Wouldnt you love to see the name and address on the person who had those 'signers' for the super?

For some reason i'm highly doubting that 25 individual people all had a 1 dime winner. No way 25 different handicappers had this super, someone had this for a buck or two. I'd love to know.

[lamboguy]

that is easy to explain, its the simulcast money!