Professional handicapper quiz

[anotherdave]

In my neverending quest for the truth:

So you have $20000 expendible cash and decide to use the whole shot to take a stab as a professional handicapper. You also have living expenses set aside for 6 months to give you a decent chance of surviving. You are very knowledgable and have made a good profit (say a grand total of $20000 over the last 3 years) part-time betting to win only. Here are my questions:

1. How many tracks would you play? (and which ones?)


2. How much would you bet on each play? (of course this could cause problems at smaller tracks, but hypothetically)


3. At what amounts would you start decreasing or increasing your bets (if at all)?


4. How would you profit take?


5. How many months a year would you take off from the races?


AD

[sq764]

I have a question... If you are married, is there such a thing as $20,000 EXPENDIBLE cash?

[Zaf]

Interesting Dave :confused: Let me think about this for a while.

I try to respond before the thread is ruined by a database/R.O.I./I.V./speed figure argument :D

ZAFONIC

[anotherdave]

Originally posted by zafonic
Interesting Dave :confused: Let me think about this for a while.

I try to respond before the thread is ruined by a database/R.O.I./I.V./speed figure argument :D

ZAFONIC

Well I thought of that, so I did what I've never done before. I used the ignore button.

AD

[JustRalph]

when I decided to approach handicapping like a job .......it wasn't any fun anymore. FYI Dave............

That along with other reasons of time and attitude have me playing with much less frequency now days.

The good news is that there will always be a meet going somewhere. When things change......... I am sure I will come back to it.

[mhrussell]

First off, I would recommend at least 1 year of expenses instead of just 6 months.

1) I would concentrate on Arlington Park, Churchill, Keeneland, Gulfstream/Calder, Belmont and Saratoga and the Oak Tree meet at Santa Anita

2)Flat bet $150 (win bets). Consider a portfolio approach where some of your bankroll is allocated to Exactas/Trifectas (if you are succesful with them). Adjust your win bet size downward accordingly.

3) Don't change bet size until you double your initial bankroll. Then reasses your expenses and form a new bankroll (from my old blackjack team days...) and unit size.

4) Pay yourself monthly. Steve Fierro has a nice approach that he describes in his book "Four Quarters of Horse Investing". But don't forget to save some profit to build up your bankroll.

5) Take at least 6-10 weeks off a year. You need time away from the lost photos, inquiries and the 10,000 other "tough beats" that will drive you insane if you let it.

Personally, I would need a lot bigger bankroll behind me to try this. Thus, I will keep my day job as a thermal engineer and continue to play part time. But there are days when I want to chuck the whole g-d thing and go for it too.

Anyway, my 2 cents worth...

[midnight]

1) I'd play NYRA, SoCal, Chicago, and Kentucky (except Turfway), plus Oaklawn and Monmouth.

2) I have no idea how much I'd bet per play. No more than 2% of the bankroll, 1% on most plays.

3) The bet size wouldn't vary.

4) I'd keep the bankroll at what it started at and remove the profits periodically.

5) I'd probably take December off until after Christmas when Santa Anita begins its winter meet. I wouldn't play Aqueduct until February.

[Dick Schmidt]

1. How many tracks would you play? (and which ones?)

Lots. Certainly every major circuit, and during the summer at least 10-12 tracks per day. Tom Brohamer told me once that hobbyists hunt with rifles, professionals hunt with shotguns. It is more fun to carefully stalk the perfect race, wait for the perfect bet and hit a precise target, but pointing a shotgun at a flock of (sitting?) ducks and letting go with both barrels will feed your family. When they are on offer, I regularly play 75-100 races a day, and I try to never spend more than three minutes analyzing any one race. Don't forget to set aside time to keep records at the end of the day. Figure on a 12-14 hour day.


2. How much would you bet on each play? (of course this could cause problems at smaller tracks, but hypothetically)

Sure you can be a little more at the big tracks and are limited at the smaller ones, but if you can't put $100 down on a horse, why bother? Remember, you're trying to make a living here.


3. At what amounts would you start decreasing or increasing your bets (if at all)?

I never decrease bets, and I increase my bets based on a percentage of bankroll. 2% is what I usually use. I normally increase my bets only once a week or so, and never in the middle of a day, or card. I also use multiple bankrolls, so the worst that can happen is I lose one and have to take another out of my backup stash.

4. How would you profit take?

Have a goal in mind when you start. I usually try to increase my bank by 50%, then take half the profits and either start another bankroll (exotics, say) or pay bills. Thus a $100 bank is taken to $150, $25 extracted, and $125 is taken to $190 and so on. I never use a time frame, if it takes a day to do it, great, if it takes a month, then it does. If you want a regular paycheck, go get a regular job.

5. How many months a year would you take off from the races?

None. Instead I take off days during the week. Many times I will take off Sundays to do family things, and one or two days during the week to run errands and relax while the house is empty. I play every month because I have bills that come due every month, so I need the money. It's a grind, but so was working for a life insurance company 50 weeks a year, and this pays better and I don't wear a tie.


As an aside, $20,000 is more than enough to start with. Keep at least half in reserve. I started with $200. I have bet $7-8,000 a day out of a $10,000 bank frequently, and occasionally bet over $10,000 a day from a $10,000 bank. It is my opinion that you don't want to invest too much, either financially or emotionally, in any one race. Play them like you are working on an assembly line doing the same thing over and over all day. You may have some thrills during the day, but if any part of the process is "fun" then eliminate that part. This is a job of work, and part of the process of becoming a professional is to turn handicapping into a job.

Good luck,

Dick

[JustRalph]

Originally posted by JustRalph
when I decided to approach handicapping like a job .......it wasn't any fun anymore. FYI Dave............
That along with other reasons of time and attitude have me playing with much less frequency now days.
The good news is that there will always be a meet going somewhere. When things change......... I am sure I will come back to it.

Hey Dave

I realize I didn't answer your questions....... you weren't looking for the crap I posted above.....how about this.

1. Since I have been playing a couple of years, I know by now
which ones I am good at......stick with those.....
2. Come up with a formula based on the size of the bankroll.
I have read a bunch of different theories on this, depends
on the size of the bankroll.
3. When to adjust bets ? evaluate on the way......?
4. Pay myself monthly
5. Winter racing depends on what tracks I am playing. Winter
is my favorite at some tracks, but Winter is a great time to
take off if you ask me. Especially if you live in a cold climate
and want to take a trip to a warm spot. Or vice versa,
a month off in the winter?

[lousycapper]

Originally posted by Dick Schmidt
1. You may have some thrills during the day, but if any part of the process is "fun" then eliminate that part. This is a job of work, and part of the process of becoming a professional is to turn handicapping into a job.

Good luck,

Dick

===========================
Mr. Schmidt,

You are correct... however, once folks find out that professional wagering is a JOB they will be turned off no matter how much money they make. At first they think it's glamorous then they find out it's a lot harder than it looks... mental pressure, loosing streaks, et cetera. My Grampa has been doing this longer than most of the folks that post here have been on this planet. IT'S A JOB! It's not glamourous and it's certainly not 9 to 5 either... ZZZZZZZZZZZZZZ!

-L.C.

[kenwoodall]

Dick is correct, but I would not play Southern Ca, FL, or minor tracks.

[hurrikane]

Dick has about summed it up for you there Dave.

I would say for tracks..where evey you can find a play.

you better learn to be patient. That is maybe the best tool a handicapper has..patience and disipline

Try if you can to remove the emotion from the game. A lot of ego and emotion can come into play..the more you can eliminate it the better. After all..when is that last time you were jumping up and down and yelling for you mutual fund to go up?
that is really whay is going on here. you are investing in parimutual funds.

I dont' even watch the races I bet on.

[ranchwest]

The tracks you play depends on the basis of your play. From what I've seen there are two successful approaches.

1) Play a circuit and know that circuit. A lot of these people are at the track live as much as they can be.

2) Shove money through the windows, playing as many tracks as possible. Of course, I would think you have to be pretty good with using a computer as a tool for this approach to work.

I'm not familiar with people who cherry pick a half dozen tracks and play those professionally, though there may be some doing it.

[Valuist]

1. I would play the tracks I play now. I play GP and Aqu in the winter, and then Hawthorne as it starts in March. GP feeds into Aqu, Kee and Haw. I drop GP when Keeneland starts and then play Kentucky (not Ellis), Chicago and New York racing the rest of the way. If you play CD or Kee, you might as well play Chicago and NY because they ship back and forth so often. I'm considering dumping the inner dirt at Aqu and playing FG instead.

2. Bet size would vary considerably. I would not lock myself into win bets only. The biggest overlays come in the big exotics. As for a limit, it would depend on what my "comfort zone" was.

3. As for question 3, when I feel a slump coming, I limit myself to no more than 3 bets in a day. I usually bet, then leave. This is the best way to break a slump. There is no chasing. I never feel compelled to chase a previous days' losses, but there have been times when I've chased that day's losses.

4. Would depend on how much I made and how my non-racing expenses were.

5. I like to take 8 weeks off a year. 5 weeks in summer. I love Saratoga's racing but I find the heat of the summer to be a turning point in many horses' form. Del Mar is a disaster which I refuse to bet. I'll take the first 3 weeks off in January and let all the GP layoff horses get a race or two into themselves. By the 3rd week in Jan, I'm itching to get back to the track.

[karlskorner]

I have always felt that the word "professional" is out of context when used with handicapper. In my mind a professional is someone who offers their "services" to the public such as a doctor, lawyer, accountant etc. for a "fee". The few handicappers who sell a tout sheet, information or post their opinions in newsapapers etc. can be called professional, I guess.

Announce to someone that your are a handicapper and you are shunned by the public, but declare I am a "professional Handicapper" and it has a nice ring to it.

[Zaf]

1. I Would try to concentrate on 2 circuits. Maybe FL / So. Cal

If field size is a problem I may change the So. cal circuit to NY / Chicago / or KY.

2. I would bet win only and play 5 % of my bankroll on each situation I feel I have a value opportunity.

3. Probably wouldn't adjust bet size, but if things are going very well, I would bump it up a few percent.

4. If I was winning I would take profits weekly, hard to say what percent.

5. When I feel burnt from handicapping or in the midst of a bad losing streak, I would probably take a week or two off.

I know others have better plans than that, but I think my strategy is conservative. Probably not as much upside , and certainly less risk than a plan which involves exotics and potentially long losing streaks.

ZAFONIC

[GameTheory]

I would bet the whole 20k to show on a sure thing.

[ranchwest]

"That’s what separates the professionals from the taxpayers."

-- Jason Kidd


Hey, if we knew what he was talking about in Texas, he'd still be with the Mavericks, OK?

[ranchwest]

Originally posted by GameTheory
I would bet the whole 20k to show on a sure thing.

Could you send me a PM when you do this?

[so.cal.fan]

I'd just wait until they had those low takeout pick 3's and pick 4's down there in Ranchwest country.
Then go for it.....in between times, learn as much as I could about SH and Lone Star trainers, owners, jockeys and horses.
If Texas lowered their take to 12% on all bets.......well....I haven't been in the great State of Texas since I was born there, many years ago....but my home would be up for sale and I'd be moving somewhere between FT. Worth and Dallas.

[lousycapper]

Originally posted by karlskorner


Announce to someone that your are a handicapper and you are shunned by the public, but declare I am a "professional Handicapper" and it has a nice ring to it.

============================

:D How 'bout "equine wagering investor"?
If you can't dazzle 'em just baffle 'em! :D

-L.C.

[azibuck]

I would become a one man Pick 4/Pick 6 syndicate.

I would play BEL/SAR, but I would play smaller tracks too. Not tiny, but FL has surprising Pick 4 payouts. Same with Tampa.

I would invest what is necessary to win the bet. I wouldn't cheap out and try to eliminate that one last horse. I would play when it's hittable and wager accordingly.

I would profit-take daily, of course.

I would probably only play 3 days a week, making time off pretty much moot, but I'm sure I'd take a week or two here or there for travel.

[Fastracehorse]

<It is more fun to carefully stalk the perfect race, wait for the perfect bet and hit a precise target,

Yes, making money is fun.

<but pointing a shotgun at a flock of (sitting?) ducks and letting go with both barrels will feed your family.

Small priced winners necessitate a need for action.

<and I try to never spend more than three minutes analyzing any one race.

Your brain might explode??

fffastt

[TurfRuler]

1. How many tracks would you play? (and which ones?)

I would play any and all tracks that offer races on the grass.


2. How much would you bet on each play? (of course this could cause problems at smaller tracks, but hypothetically)

I would set my bankroll at $2,000 and bet $200 to win on at the max three horses each race that I play. If I (should) lose the bankroll amount then the additional $18,000 would be there to start over. Since that won't happen, I would take profit and only play from the initial bankroll.

3. At what amounts would you start decreasing or increasing your bets (if at all)?

I would not decrease my bets nor increase it (hopefully.)

4. How would you profit take?

I would take profit and spend it accordingly everytime I was over the $2000 bankroll for my living expenses and pleasure.


5. How many months a year would you take off from the races?

I would only take off when I did not feel like handicapping if I am winning and would keep on playing if I ever was on a losing streak.

[freeneasy]

pyscologically, dave, i would almost think, that you might be under the impression, that the 3 years you have successfully invested in a successful profiting by means of professional handicapping wadgering, still, may not be enough to see you through a decision in which all your finacial needs will depend upon.
lets see, it took you 3 years to accumilate a profit of $20,000.
of coarse you will want to accumilate that same profit of $20,000 in a much shorter span of time.
on what type of daily basis was this $20,000 earned in? saturdays and sundays only? in other words 2 days a week for 3 years? 3 days a week for three years ect.
lets say 2 days a week for 3 years. so 2 days a week x 52 weeks a year times 3 years will come to
312 racing days it took to generate a profit of $20,000.
5 racing days per week x 52 weeks comes to 260 racing days per year.
312 - 260 = 52 racing days into the next year, divided by 5 days per week = 10.40 weeks + 52 weeks= 62.4 weeks
it took you, dave, 62.4 weeks to earn $20,000 on a daily basis.
and lets say your starting capitol was $5,000 then
you can and should expect a first year income of

1) $20,000, divided by 62.4 weeks to earn $20,000 profit = $320 per week x 52 weeks = $16,666 per year

2) $16,666 you earned in one year of 5 days a week racing

3)multiplied by ( $20,000 new starting capitol divided by $5,000 oridginal starting capitol) =4

4) $16,666 x 4 = $66,664

so 6 months down the line with your $33,332 accumulitive profit, set aside the same capitol for the next 6 months add 10 grand or so to the $20,000 capitol and at the end of the 2nd 6 months it should all come out to about $100,000 give or take a bone or two

now what was your question Dave?

starting off i think i would just keep everything pretty much the same going thru the first year. it seems to me that if you were able to adapt everything you had accomplished while doing this on a part time basis, and adapt this over and into a full time basis, and keep it there for the first year then you should pretty much be ok.
i mean you got this far with what you understand about horserace profiting, keep it so you have a legitimate and inteligent understanding of every decision your going to make.
your a journyman handicapper, and a journyman in succesful wadgering but as of yet, you are not a journyman in the format of successfully and productivly making your living through the means of horserace wadgering. i'd wait til i got there. i wouldnt add to much and i wouldnt take away to much, at least not coming out of the gate i wouldnt.
for right now id stick with, if it aint broke, dont fix it as opposed to if it aint broke, fix it better. of coarse if something absolutely adds to your increase in profitability then by all means fix it better. but first you need to know you can make this desired move and make it with all confidence. and the only place where you can aquire any such confidence is through experience. what you have accomplised in the last three years and what you now want to accomplish are one and the same but the latter has a more personal and in depth demention to it that the professional novice doesnt have to face for the first time. hes got a job. but all in all dave i think its more the initial transition from 'professional' novice to professional occupation that has to be made, and for that your just going to have to feel your way around until it all comes natural. your just starting your own bussiness.

:D :D :D :D :D

[Rick]

AD,

I'm afraid that all of these answers may be good for those who offered them but they may not be good advice for you. Everyone has different strengths as a handicapper and to apply someone else's formula for success may be disastrous for you. The main thing is not to change what you've been doing that works. For some, that's being an expert at one track or one circuit (very time consuming), for some it's trying to play as many races in one day as possible (doesn't work for most people). The most common succesful practice is to select a few spot plays from many tracks but that does usually increase your overhead.

As for money management, I'd calculate the Kelly % using the usual formula but then bet only about 20% of that when taking profits. Most people overbet their bankroll when they have a good method. I've known several who were profitable for only a year or two and then lost their bankroll. I prefer to build mine up from small levels and play mostly with OPM (other people's money). But I'm not really a gambler by nature.

Don't take profits at less than 100 plays, however long that takes, and preferably more. For my method, about 300 plays would virtually guarantee a profit, but I don't mind taking it more often and sometimes getting nothing if I'm behind. But I don't need to depend on it for an income, it's just what I call "party money" to me.

[Suff]

No Interest. I love this game. I get goose bumps in tight stretch runs. I enjoy the HELL out what I do. I make wagers that I "intuitively" know are not smart. I make then anyway....you know why? I like it.

I'm not talented enough "yet" to make a living at Proffesional Handicapping. If I was, I'm pretty sure I'd pass,,,, If Dick scmidt verison was the "Only" verison. I expect is. I'm sure there are deviations, but I think from my posistion I'd have to agree...
You have to take the FUN out of it.

Unless you considering wagering from Home , with the RED SOX on the tube...Favorite CD going in the stereo, sitting in my Boxers with a pint of vanilla haggan dazz fun. I do.

If I sit here all afternoon watching the game , Pigging out, playing the ponies and I drop $200.00

hey...at least I did'nt get arrested.


This subject is on my "Talking Points" for Saratoga.

[Show Me the Wire]

There is a saying, I guess I am fond of sayings, "If you need to ask how much, you can't afford it.". The saying's meaning can be applied to the question of being a pro, if you need to asl you may not be ready.

Regards,
Show Me the Wire

Perception is reality

[lousycapper]

Originally posted by Show Me the Wire
There is a saying, I guess I am fond of sayings, "If you need to ask how much, you can't afford it.".

Show Me the Wire

Perception is reality

=============================

:D "If you don't ask how much... you soon will go broke!" :D Heh, heh!

[Show Me the Wire]

Originally posted by lousycapper
=============================

:D "If you don't ask how much... you soon will go broke!" :D Heh, heh!

That is correct because you couldn't afford it.:cool:

Regards,
Show Me the Wire

Perception is reality

[lousycapper]

Originally posted by Show Me the Wire
That is correct because you couldn't afford it.:cool:

Regards,
Show Me the Wire

Perception is reality

=============================

:D Perhaps the operative quote should be, "If you don't ask the price you must have more money than brains." :D

:cool: :cool: :cool: :cool: :cool: :cool: :cool:

-L.C.

[ranchwest]

Most of the professionals I've seen have been more focused on making money than losing it, more interested in putting folding money in their wallet than figuring their coulda been.