Mine That Bird in the Derby... any strategy on picking him?

[keithw84]

Looking at PPs and all the information available, it seemed to me like there was no good reason to pick MTB to win the Derby. In fact, it seemed like everyone I know who picked him did so on a "hunch."

Was there something most of us missed that pointed to MTB putting in a great Derby performance?

[rokitman]

No.

[Show Me the Wire]

Yes.

[MNslappy]

Maybe.

[Pell Mell]

Yes, 5 of the first 6 finishers were descendants of Nearco as is Rachel.

[Triopstor]

This is a true story. Before the race I had a sleeping dream seeing a product with the word "Bird". There were 2 Bird's in the race. I only remembered the vision in spirit after the horse won.

This is not the first time such has happened to me.

Years ago one of my employers asked, "Do you want some gin" as he was walking with a water bottle towards me. "Go for Gin" won that week in the Kentucky Derby.

I love the Kentucky Derby for exactor/exacta prices when the runner size is at least 13 horses.

But these are small visions to the one I had that saved my life when I was 15 years old from breaking my neck on stairs.

There is more to the story of my life.


Sincerely Triopstor.

[proximity]

Looking at PPs and all the information available,.....

the big pace figure from sunland wasn't available?

[Easy Goer]

The three most telling handicapping facts that pointed to Mine That Bird becoming the winner of the '09-Ky-Derby was as follows below.

#1: His Sire Birdstone was a G-1 winner @ 10 & 12 Furlongs as a 3yo, notably the Travers Stakes & the Belmont Stakes.

#2: His Grandsire Grindstone won the '96 Ky-Derby as a 3yo.

#3: His Great Grandsire Unbridled also won the '90 Ky-Derby as a 3yo, as well as the BC Classic.

Two other minor factors figured into the running of the '09 Ky-Derby, which was the Wet-Fast conditions of the Main Track. Some horses tend to excel on a Wet-Fast track & the progeny of Unbridled tend to fare well when the goings get a little wet. If you look at the replay of the race, you can tell that obviously Mine That Bird loved the Wet-Fast surface.

Also the Top 10 Jockey change was huge for Mine That Bird, meaning a Top 10 Standings Jockey was now riding him for the 1st time, instead of unheard of journeyman from New Mexico. Not only was Calvin Borel a Top 10 jockey, but he had Won a Ky-Derby before just a couple of years ago on Street Sense.

Therefore if you believe in bloodlines especially those bloodlines that get better as the distances increase & the fact that you had a Ky-Derby winning jockey getting on for the 1st time you could've definitely had yourself a Live-Longshot for the '09 Ky-Derby.

Now ask me did I have Mine That Bird as my longshot? Nooo, I switched to another son of "Birdstone" named Summer Bird as my '09 Ky-Derby longshot, Geezy Peezy, Trust me when I say I'm still having a few sleepless nites over it too.

[Overlay]

Another consideration might be that, even if not necessarily being a probable choice as the one horse most likely to win, his odds may have compared favorably to his chances of winning when viewed in the context of the entire field, especially in light of factors such as those that have been mentioned.

[HUSKER55]

Watch the replay. That inside opened up and gave him a clean shot. If the leaders had moved over, he would have had to go around.

I think jockey error has more to do with it than anything else. If you give away to the shortest path what do you expect?

JMHO

[lamboguy]

This is a true story. Before the race I had a sleeping dream seeing a product with the word "Bird". There were 2 Bird's in the race. I only remembered the vision in spirit after the horse won.

This is not the first time such has happened to me.

Years ago one of my employers asked, "Do you want some gin" as he was walking with a water bottle towards me. "Go for Gin" won that week in the Kentucky Derby.

I love the Kentucky Derby for exactor/exacta prices when the runner size is at least 13 horses.

But these are small visions to the one I had that saved my life when I was 15 years old from breaking my neck on stairs.

There is more to the story of my life.


Sincerely Triopstor.great story and greak karma. i hope you live a long healthy life

[cj]

Watch the replay. That inside opened up and gave him a clean shot. If the leaders had moved over, he would have had to go around.

I think jockey error has more to do with it than anything else. If you give away to the shortest path what do you expect?

JMHO

He did win by 7, so I'm not sure having to go around was going to defeat him that day.

[BeatTheChalk]

Looking at PPs and all the information available, it seemed to me like there was no good reason to pick MTB to win the Derby. In fact, it seemed like everyone I know who picked him did so on a "hunch."

Was there something most of us missed that pointed to MTB putting in a great Derby performance?

What would be the " Hunch " I don't get it so far :bang: :blush:

[Bochall]

If you looked at the number of stakes wins in their careers you woulda had the tri in the Derby (I didnt have squat)....MTB and Pioneer were the leaders in terms of stakes wins and Papa and Musket I believe were very close to their total.

[HUSKER55]

cj, I know, I was on PON. But it would have broken his momentum and I will always think it might have made the difference.

Perhaps not.

[fmolf]

i said it right after the derby was over that he might not win another graded stakes race...i stick to my guns.

[46zilzal]

i said it right after the derby was over that he might not win another graded stakes race...i stick to my guns.
Mine That Bird nor Quality Road stack up to the pace abilities of the older horses Dry Martini and Macho Again, as much as I like the two of them, the realities are what they are.

[Robert Fischer]

He showed a capacity to make a sustained run in his previous races.

Calvin got on him in the morning and "conditioned" him to respond like hell to a stimuli.

that's about the most you could know going in.

A really great handicapper probably notices the two points above above and says that MTB could be in the top 5 without any real bettable chance of winning.

In the actual race itself MTB got the best setup of any Kentucky Derby runner in history(to the best of my knowledge).
He ran a separate race with a much superior use of energy than all of the other horses. That alone was enough for him to win, but on top of all that he also saved ground.

He didn't run any better than the other top 3 or 4 finishers.

[bisket]

the truth of the matter is with the two scratches ( quality road and i want revenge) it took all the horses with any kind of quickness out of the race. the rest were just really grind it out types. that and the fact that mtb was blocked in the first 1/2 so he just galloped lightly. they turned for home and the rest of the field was running a 26 and change 1/4 and mtb was running 24. i think the fact mtb was blocked out of the gate is what won the race for them. racing luck!!! incidentally racing luck is what gives most longshot players their cake. take it from one who counts on it!! when the odds meet opportunity to win you have a good play!!!

[jonnielu]

Looking at PPs and all the information available, it seemed to me like there was no good reason to pick MTB to win the Derby. In fact, it seemed like everyone I know who picked him did so on a "hunch."

Was there something most of us missed that pointed to MTB putting in a great Derby performance?

It would depend on how you look at the PP's for Derby contenders. For purposes of prediction, it is a little different then the normal process. The first 3 or 4 races are the best indicators, while the latest performances are actually secondary.

jdl

[WinterTriangle]

Shoulda asked Chantal. I bet she had some insight into this horse.

Its not like MTB has only had bush-track jockeys.

The first 3 or 4 races are the best indicators, while the latest performances are actually secondary.

jdl

Interesting.

[WinterTriangle]

BTw, as for hunches, my last name starts with the letters BIRD****

My dog's name is Calvin.


My brothers were beating me up for not playing MTB.

[classhandicapper]

cj, I know, I was on PON. But it would have broken his momentum and I will always think it might have made the difference.

Perhaps not.

IMHO, POTN has gone into the history books as a pretty underrated horse.

Those that evaluate horses with numeric speed and pace figures don't like him because he didn't run very fast and those that look at who you beat by how much don't like him because he wasn't very dominating in the CA preps. But it's my contention that horses don't run as fast or win by as large an average margin on synthetic tracks.

IMHO, he was a legitimate solid grade 1 winner over horses that did fairly well when shipped east. He finished second in the Derby (and beat a lot of very good horses) DESPITE being outside on a day where the inside part of the track (where MTB was) was the best place to be. Some critics will point to the Preakness, but to me that's a preposterous point because he was so bad that day he was obviously either way over the top or hurt in that race. His subsequent retirement is more evidence of that. Nice horse. Too bad we didn't get to see more of him.

[bisket]

i didn't like pon in the derby, but i really had my eye on him for the breeders cup classic. i know you may think how can you say that when a horse is running in may. when i watch a horse run i always watch to see where i think the horse will race best. the whole winter and spring i thought he may have been the best 3 year old of all, but i just think the the time baffert got him, and the situation baffert was in with the owner the horse HAD TO WIN IN DECEMBER- APRIL. or baffert might have lost zayat for good. it just said to me the whole time that pon wouldn't win the derby. he'd be on the down side of his form cycle. so my feelings were look for him at the cup. i probably would have gotten great odds on him, and in my opinion he was capable of winning. :ThmbUp: just some insight on how i how i look at horses, and where i get some of my off the wall bets.

[TurfRuler]

Looking at PPs and all the information available, it seemed to me like there was no good reason to pick MTB to win the Derby. In fact, it seemed like everyone I know who picked him did so on a "hunch."

Was there something most of us missed that pointed to MTB putting in a great Derby performance?

He was in the race and was one of the longest priced horses in the field. Although I had him way down on my list of playable horses in the KD, he did have a chance looking at his winning races and the award he received in Canada.

"Finished fourth in Sunland Park Derby vieded for lead gaining narrow advantage no match for winner. Runs 2nd in Boderland Derby Stakes at Sunland Park. Finished 2nd in Stakes race at Sunland."

Based on that here are my comments:

17. Mine That Bird – From Canada to New Mexico to Kentucky by van, what a horse, will show speed for a while but nothing else.


Not to mention that he was also entered in the BC Juvenile the previous year and ran up the track, but he was there.

[bisket]

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UJZls8_VMWE&feature=related

[levinmpa]

I started the thread below a couple of days after the Derby. I didn't hear one handicapper/analyst, or anyone else for that matter, mention Mine That Bird, until I heard the radio show I talk about it in the thread.

http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/showthread.php?t=57395

[11cashcall]

Was there something most of us missed that pointed to MTB putting in a great Derby performance?

I find it no coincidence that MTB had returned to train in NM (for Goodward)where he last ran before the Derby(louisville).Now im not saying anything,but i know that other atheletes who go above sea- level then go back perform very well.

Anyone have a large sample size on horses shipping from NM to sea level with
a winning percentage.Just a hunch.

[Java Gold@TFT]

i said it right after the derby was over that he might not win another graded stakes race...i stick to my guns.
I was in your corner after the Derby but just alittle different. I had compared him directly to Giacomo and said that MTB would not win another graded stakes race this year. That was sort of a waffle based on the fact he is a gelding and could eventually win another graded stakes race in the next 4 years. After the Preakness Funny Cide eventually won the JCGC but really never lived up to the status of a Derby winner. If MTB proves me wrong this weekend in the Goodwood then I will admit it but he has a snowballs chance in the BC Classic if he makes it that far. Let's just face the facts - he got the perfect storm in the Derby and has won one race in the last 12 months.

[bisket]

mtb shows up every race though, and is always a good bet to make the tri or exacta. he'll probably be in my trifecta in the goodwood and breeders cup. along with tiago. both have an advantage on poly with there running style. the pace doesn't get away from them early, but the pace still tires as if they ran fast fractions on dirt. incidentally colonal john's running style (tactical speed to gain position) will usually lead to him being blocked of some sort in the stretch on polytrack. this type of runner that runs fast enough to gain inside position on dirt usually gets into the herd of horses in the stretch on polytrack. where closers like tiago and mtb usually have the choice to pick their spots. a little more insight on what helps me to decide who i play. now this doesn't mean the colonal will be blocked, but he has a better chance of being blocked than a closer.