Penn National 9/30 Pick 4 Payoffs

[hbeck]

I am alive in the pick four for 4/4 with 8 minutes to the last race with the #7 ($3,670, the whole pool after the incredible 28% takeout) and the #9 ($752). I am also alive to all of the other horses for a 3/4 payoff.

The really irritating thing about this to me is that the Pick 3 that finished in the last race paid $1,700 for a dollar.

If the #9 wins this race, I will actually make less than I would have had I played the pick three.

It's my own fault for playing such terrible tracks like Penn, which small pools and unbelievably high takeouts.

[hbeck]

#9 won at 3/5. Paid $748.50 for a dollar. I don't think I've ever been so dissapointed in hitting a pick 4... lesson learned for the future.

THIS WAS 10/1, not 9/30 - sorry about the title.

[Steve 'StatMan']

Owww. Sorry to see this. Worse, for the $1 ticket over $600, it's a signer either way. Guess a few people used that #9 and went to the for the glory of the Pick 4, thinking a strong horse like that turns a Pick 4 into a Pick 3. Yeah, except for the payoff sometimes. Oh well, good selecting job, and I think still a good job overall in the betting department, but lesson & caution learned. Maybe Pick 4 with the longer shot and Pick 3 and stopping before the obvious horse in the last leg will work in the future - less chalks on the ticket. Thanks for sharing your story, and pain, so we can all think, reflect, and adjust where needed.

[jelly]

The pick 3 doesn't make sense the pool only had $2,376?


$2 Pick 3 (3-10-10) 3 Correct Paid $3,507.20 Pick 3 Pool $2,376

[showbet]

The pick 3 doesn't make sense the pool only had $2,376?


$2 Pick 3 (3-10-10) 3 Correct Paid $3,507.20 Pick 3 Pool $2,376
They show the payoff for $2, but there was only $1 sold on the winning combination. So the one ticket that had the correct numbers got $1753.60, which is the entire pool after the 26% takeout.

[jelly]

My mistake-

The size of the pool confused me,only $2,376?

If it's any consolation the pick 3 would have only played $850 if you played it.

Good handicapping.

[castaway01]

You're only going to hit the whole pool at tracks like this, but with nothing in the pools a lot of times you get screwed on value---lesson learned.

[castaway01]

Sorry, double post. So, I'll add that I've done this before myself and at least you hit it. Just don't bother with Pick 3 and Pick 4 bets at PA tracks.

[hbeck]

Thanks for the responses. I still would have preferred hitting the pick three and it having had two winning tickets for me and someone else at $850 each but hey, beggars can't be choosers.

I think the parlay on the $1 pick four was something like $1,100. Means the #9 was singled on probably every winning ticket other than mine.

[markgoldie]

Lessons learned:

(1) Takeout: Never play into large takeout pools unless your ADW provider gives you a sliding-scale rebate such that takeout % is negated.

(2) Pool size, also known as potential for profit. Key to this consideration (but not mentioned in your post) is field sizes. I know PEN is getting some rather large fields these days, but with an average field size of 8 horses, you need 100-200 combinations (even using the in-vogue Crist method of A-B-C ticket construction) to give yourself a fighting chance to cash the gimmick. Singling a 3-5 in one leg is the worst possible way to play the wager because everyone is doing it and the value is thereby cut way down. You should be looking to play against weaker favorites whenever possible.

You would like the returnable pool to be at least 40-1 on your base investment. This gives you sufficient reward for holding the rare pool-shot ticket. Considering a play of 200 combinations, that means a returnable pool of $8000, which under a 25% takeout means a total pool of $10,667.

Do not be persuaded by the notion that a smaller pool gives you a better chance for a pool scoop and therefore playing into smaller pools is wise. There is a certain randomness to the coverage of longshot numbers even in small pools and if you share a number with a guy playing his lucky number, your return on investment will be a joke. And even if you hold the lone ticket, the ROI on the bet will be insufficient.

Never scale back your ticket coverage to fit the pool size. Work the other way around. Construct the ticket first and then check to see if the pool offers sufficient reward. If it doesn't, don't play. Trimming tickets to lower cost will have you on the bridge next to the $2.10 show players.

Other tips: Look for large and contentious field where you can plausibly play more, not less, combinations. Routinely make suspect favorites "B" or "C" horses rather than "A".

Mark

[Whodoyalike?]

I hit a trifecta once at the "Pig Pen" that had a 20-1 on top/ 8-1 in second/5-2 in third, and the trifecta only paid $300. Penn is a joke.