2 ALL PA REGULARS

[Derek2U]

Sitting in work today I was thinking of my recent posts & I felt
I had to write this. I really think that horse race betting is great
and does really provide great chances to score some money. Yes,
money manangement; yes, patience; yes, some record-keeping;
etc etc. But after all that, do YOU really have to be math-nerdy to
win? I would say NO --- on several counts. First, I had to nag
my father (a PhD math prof) to join me in my research --- he was
& is Very happy to handicap w/OUT any need beyond some simple
arithmetic. Second, what I AM discovering is this: if you use math
techniques you can Still EXPLORE YOUR fav factors, even if they
are highly subjective. (All these things said here about all these
routines like regression --- and there are MANY, MANY types ---
are essentially doable even with your subjective factors.) Take
class & take eliminating horses. WE just ask ourselves, in our
system, if so & so SEEMS outclassed or Very Slow etc etc .... and
so, U can quantify subjective variables so don't think you got to
be some math whiz. (BTW that discussion of derivatives in making
a system is total BS) .... DJC

[JustRalph]

Get a second job! You have too much time on your hands!

[Derek2U]

hehe ... are u my boss in helmet? lol i been day dreaming for the last 2 months. derek

[GameTheory]

I think being "math-nerdy" makes it much less likely you will succeed...

[BillW]

Originally posted by Derek2U

(BTW that discussion of derivatives in making
a system is total BS) .... DJC

I don't know Derek ... I thought the comment that someone had integrated it into their game was a bit (inadvertently?) funny. :D

[GameTheory]

Originally posted by BillW
I don't know Derek ... I thought the comment that someone had integrated it into their game was a bit (inadvertently?) funny. :D

Being math-nerdy ruins your sense of humor too...

[hurrikane]

it doesn't go over very big with the babes either. :D

[mezmac]

Interesting comments…..I have been struggling with similar thoughts, mainly because I am not a math inclined person. In fact, after reading this board for the last year, I am really impressed with the programming and statistical work expressed in a variety of subjects and topics. Personally I can perform and understand arithmetical and/or mathematical operations to the degree described in Brohamer’s latest book. (MPH) One can conclude that we are talking elementary levels. So I asked myself how do I handicap or what are the mental processes?

I have come to one conclusion that when I read the Form downloaded from DRF and using Formulator that I am recognizing patterns. This pattern recognition has developed from handicapping for about 35 years. It is entirely innate because at times I select a horse to bet and would be hard pressed to describe to somebody else why I chose the horse. For example the 8th race at Hollywood on Sunday where Singletary was the prohibitive choice but I centered on #6 Private Chef (6-1). In this instance this horse had run once in his lifetime, winning its maiden, now it jumps up into a stake, on the turf and going two turns and wins. Why did I choose this horse? Maybe there were many indicators or matches to a schema in my brain that clicked on saying evaluation by supreme computer (brain) indicates high degree of probability after positive assumptions concluded, results in decision to single in pick 3.

On the other hand, I know that a computer software program would probably not focus on that horse. I assume this based on the one lined past performance of the horse. Unless this program gave you the capability to project a future performance that is significantly beyond anything achieved to date by the horse. But if a person is projecting improved performance and enters it into a computer, hasn’t the supreme computer already done the work? In other words the read out from the computer is numerically expressing what our brain has already concluded and entered into the computer.

Don’t get me wrong because I use software programs for data crunching and making some powerful conclusions. I also give due recognition to the data base approach for aiding in decision making and all of the terminology and methodologies of statistical tools. Whatever works for you then by all means use it. I just know that I am constantly trying to expand my capabilities with whatever is available but my core approach to handicapping is primarily “pattern recognition” by my old noggin. This is especially the case when it comes to picking the elusive long shots.