Jockeys manipulating running styles

[Imriledup]

When i was a newbie handicapper, the one thing that i loved that drew me to thoroughbred racing (as opposed to harness racing) was two main things. In Harness racing, horses get boxed in all the time, if you bet those races, you will lose at least 1 per night because you couldn't get free with a horse who would have won if clear. The second thing that drew me to thoroughbred racing was that speed horses showed speed and closers closed. If a horse shows all '1s' on paper, its going to show one's again. If there were 2 or 3 horses that always showed '1s' i would know for sure that they would all fight for the lead and burn each other out. This made my job as a handicapper easy, i would just bet the best closer and sweep the field and head to the window muttering something about this being an easy game.

Yesterday at Fairplex in the 6th race, there was 3 or 4 'speeds' in the race and the public landed on the 2 horse, Brave Justice, who was the sharp closer who figured to benefit from a big duel. Funny thing happened on the way to the bank for those players, none of the speeds went for the lead, they all grabbed and the one horse, at 20-1, who was also a closer on paper, walked around the track and won for fun.

Ron Ellis on TVG said after the race that he thinks that all the riders saw the speed on paper and all got the same idea that they didnt' want to be in a duel and that's why the race was went the way it went.

Here's my question for the panel of experts here.

If a jockey takes a horse who shows speed on paper and grabs him back, does that constitute some type of fraud on the public? If i see that a horse shows speed in all his races on paper and then the jock decided to not go for the lead, can't you make the case he's not giving the horse his best chance to win? I don't want to go so far as to say the rider isn't trying, but if i bet on a speed horse, i want that horse to show what he always shows. I'm not betting on a speed horse so the jock can strangle him in the back of the pack.

See what i'm saying?

I guess you can ultimately say that all this stuff is fair game and its all part of the handicapping process, but i still think that a speed horse needs to be a speed horse. If you duel with other speeds, well, that's your problem and it shouldn't be the problem of the horseplayers. If you, as an owner or trainer or jockey, don't want to be in a speed duel, enter your horse in some race where you are lone speed, that way you won't have to manipulate your horses running style and perpetrate some kind of 'fraud' on the wagering public.

[GameTheory]

I guess you can ultimately say that all this stuff is fair game and its all part of the handicapping process, but i still think that a speed horse needs to be a speed horse. If you duel with other speeds, well, that's your problem and it shouldn't be the problem of the horseplayers. If you, as an owner or trainer or jockey, don't want to be in a speed duel, enter your horse in some race where you are lone speed, that way you won't have to manipulate your horses running style and perpetrate some kind of 'fraud' on the wagering public.They are doing it BECAUSE they are trying to win -- we're going to start sanctioning people now because they chose tactics that didn't work?

[Imriledup]

They are doing it BECAUSE they are trying to win -- we're going to start sanctioning people now because they chose tactics that didn't work?

Are they REALLY trying to win by strangling a speed horse and taking him 'out of his game'? Is that how you win, making the horse do something that it doesn't want to do and isn't trained to do?

[46zilzal]

Jockey are passengers. They cannot CHANGE the running style of a horse:they are NOT that strong. They can screw a ride up, for sure, but they cannot make a silk purse out of a sows ear. If a horse is a speedster, and if it strangled it will continue going earlier until it tires..

The idea of a speed horse is LOST just by looking a beaten lengths. You could have, and very often do, have ENTIRE fields of speed types. Some have much more early lick than the others and IF you use beaten lengths as the criteria, you might perceive that ones several length back were either manipulated or were not at their best.

Truth is, beaten lengths are not now, nor ever were the way to understanding racing style: energy distribution is. THAT is intrinsic to the horse. Beaten lengths are a process of the relativity of their energy distribution in match up of that contest.

What grandstanders never seem to understand is that many speed types need reigning in early or they would simply run off and exhaust themselves. The rider is apportioning their speed by restraint.

[illinoisbred]

Those tactics never seem to work on a confirmed need/want to lead type.Better off gunning it and take your chances.The horse will still most likely finish better than he will if taken back.

[GameTheory]

Are they REALLY trying to win by strangling a speed horse and taking him 'out of his game'? Is that how you win, making the horse do something that it doesn't want to do and isn't trained to do?You said they were -- they were trying to avoid a speed duel. Is that smart? Maybe it is...sometimes. Doesn't matter. You have to allow for bad decisions, or risks that don't pay off. Do you feel that trainers & jockeys must announce before the race what their strategy is going to be? Might as well take the jockeys off and just let the horses run...

[Hosshead]

Are they REALLY trying to win by strangling a speed horse and taking him 'out of his game'? Is that how you win, making the horse do something that it doesn't want to do and isn't trained to do?
I know what you are saying, but this has always been going on.
And look at what Poly has done to the way riders ride.

If you have several speed horses that "take back" in a race, there is often one of them (class?) that will respond to this tactic and win. This is what the connections are trying to do.
We can't dictate the way they ride or the way the trainer wants them to ride etc.
But: When these "taken up" speed horses run next time out, .. watchout. If they get the lead they can tend to be a little more relaxed and hard to catch. And who knows, maybe in these races where all the speed is being strangled, the trainers are (already) thinking ahead to the horse's next race. And if the horse happens to respond to this tactic and wins, it would be a pleasant surprise. And if not, ... he's set up for the next race.

So when a trainer has a speed horse entered in a race with tons of speed, he could already be looking at this as a "training race". With the (longshot) chance that maybe (telling the jock to "rate him") the horse will respond.
Of course we as handicappers have to handicap this "situation".

We can always pass the race.

[Imriledup]

I know what you are saying, but this has always been going on.
And look at what Poly has done to the way riders ride.

If you have several speed horses that "take back" in a race, there is often one of them that will respond to this tactic and win. This is what the connections are trying to do.
We can't dictate the way they ride or the way the trainer wants them to ride etc.
But: When these "taken up" speed horses run next time out, .. watchout. If they get the lead they can tend to be a little more relaxed and hard to catch. And who knows, maybe in these races where all the speed is being strangled, the trainers are thinking ahead to the horse's next race. And if the horse happens to respond to this tactic and wins, it would be a pleasant surprise. And if not, ... he's set up for the next race.

So when a trainer has a speed horse entered in a race with tons of speed, he could already be looking at this as a "training race". With the (longshot) chance that maybe (telling the jock to "rate him") the horse will respond.
Of course we as handicappers have to handicap this "situation".

You make sense, i know that this is just part of the handicapping puzzle and we have to factor into our analysis which riders are more likely to take a speed horse back.

[Space Monkey]

Remember Casino Drive in last years Breeders Cup? It would be an easy game if all the horses performed just like they read off the form, but thats not how it works. When the gate opens anything can happen. In the race you mentioned it could have been a combination of factors. Jocks trying to rate, horses just not up to par that day, etc. Fairplex's 6th, I guess, would be a lower class race. More likely for inconsistencies. Suggesting some kind of consumer fraud is way over the top.

[illinoisbred]

You make sense, i know that this is just part of the handicapping puzzle and we have to factor into our analysis which riders are more likely to take a speed horse back.
I personally hate doing that-guessing who will take back.

[Hosshead]

I know that Kent D. has recieved a lot of criticism on this board, but one thing I like about him is that (unless otherwise instructed by the trainer) he generally rides with the running style of the horse. And usually if he's on a speed horse, that's what you get.

[Imriledup]

I personally hate doing that-guessing who will take back.

I agree. What's on paper should be accurate. The racing industry has past performances of their horses for a reason, and that's to see how they ran in the past. that's supposed to mean something.

[GameTheory]

I agree. What's on paper should be accurate. The racing industry has past performances of their horses for a reason, and that's to see how they ran in the past. that's supposed to mean something.HA! The "racing industry" doesn't have PPs for any such reason. They are that way because many decades ago the DRF dreamed them up that way -- probably quite independently of the "industry". Owners/trainers/jockeys don't think about you at all -- they are trying to win purses. I'm not saying they don't think about you in the sense that they are trying to fool you, I'm saying that you never enter their thoughts in any meaningful way as they go about their business. Nor should they. I'm sure most jockeys on a new horse don't go checking the PPs to see how they are "supposed" to run -- they take what they know about the horse already and what the trainer tells them and go ride it.

[InsideThePylons-MW]

This is why racing on polycrap sucks.

It's jockey racing instead of horse racing.

[bisket]

HA! The "racing industry" doesn't have PPs for any such reason. They are that way because many decades ago the DRF dreamed them up that way -- probably quite independently of the "industry". Owners/trainers/jockeys don't think about you at all -- they are trying to win purses. I'm not saying they don't think about you in the sense that they are trying to fool you, I'm saying that you never enter their thoughts in any meaningful way as they go about their business. Nor should they. I'm sure most jockeys on a new horse don't go checking the PPs to see how they are "supposed" to run -- they take what they know about the horse already and what the trainer tells them and go ride it.
this is absolutely wrong. jocks read the form on a regular basis. trainers particularly those in the claiming game read the form all the time. they use these tools just like us. my point on the thread in which we discussed how horses interact with each other was trying to point out that maybe WE should use some of the tools they use to pick some winners. i.e. actually get to know what the animals you are wagering on all the time are about. i've found thinking along these lines yields some really good plays because other handicappers don't use it!!! :p

[CBedo]

I agree. What's on paper should be accurate. The racing industry has past performances of their horses for a reason, and that's to see how they ran in the past. that's supposed to mean something.They are accurate....for the past. Stop being ridiculous. The trainer and/or jockey is trying run the horse to give it the best chance of winning.

Given your logic, Mine That Bird should have stayed closer to the pace and not won the Kentucky Derby.

Noone said this game was easy.

[Imriledup]

They are accurate....for the past. Stop being ridiculous. The trainer and/or jockey is trying run the horse to give it the best chance of winning.

Given your logic, Mine That Bird should have stayed closer to the pace and not won the Kentucky Derby.

Noone said this game was easy.

Mine that Bird is a deep closer, when did i ever say a closer should be used hard to keep closer to the pace?

I'm not talking about easy or hard, i'm talking about being misled.

[GameTheory]

Mine that Bird is a deep closer, when did i ever say a closer should be used hard to keep closer to the pace?

I'm not talking about easy or hard, i'm talking about being misled.You are not being "led" at all, since no one has given you a promise that horses will always run in the same style they have in the past. That's all in your head. I suppose route/sprint switches and running a horse on different surfaces shouldn't be allowed. It's chaos!

[rastajenk]

No, it's Sparta!



:)

[exiles]

[QUOTE=illinoisbred]I personally hate doing that-guessing who will take back.[/QUOTE

If any of you read Beyers book i think it was Beyer on Speed, he stated that in Australia where he spent a month betting if a trainer were to change the running style of the horse for that particular race he had to let the stewards know and the stewards would announce to the public that so and so would be taken back today if it was a speed horse on paper, or so and so would show speed today if it was a closer. In my opinion if in the majority of the races horses don't run to their running styles according to their PP'S that would be the end of the horse racing game for sure.

[Imriledup]

You are not being "led" at all, since no one has given you a promise that horses will always run in the same style they have in the past. That's all in your head. I suppose route/sprint switches and running a horse on different surfaces shouldn't be allowed. It's chaos!

http://www.scumdoctor.com/images/homeopathy/Sinus-Headache-Curation-By-Homeopathy.jpg

[CBedo]

In my opinion if in the majority of the races horses don't run to their running styles according to their PP'S that would be the end of the horse racing game for sure.However you measure "majority," horses do run to their running styles in the PPs a majority of the time.

[DeadHeat]

Maybe there was an agreement in the back room and the jocks all bet on the 20-1. Better check their bank accounts. There can be a hundred or more "reasons" why a race might run different ways.

A closer coming in with 4 speed horses in not however unusual and in this case, the better wager.

No fraud. They can and will run the horses as they see fit, no matter what is in the form.

[GameTheory]

There is another simple answer -- don't do pace handicapping and don't worry about the running styles.

[JustRalph]

Ralph's Rule of Racing!!! If I think he is going to the lead and can wire em........they always take back.......... :bang: :bang:

[fmolf]

A lot of early speed horses are really e/p types.Smart jockeys will not gun these type horses into a pace battle especially from the outer posts.I would think that trainers and jockeys who race everyday would know what the best tactics for their horse would be in a given race.I give you that sometimes they may be experimenting with different tactics to see how the horse reacts.These instances are almost impossible to handicap for,but sometimes they work.See mine that bird!I agree with the poster who said some speed horses are just not as fast as some others and henceforth have no choice but to lay back in 2nd or 3rd with the other less speedier horses.

[Robert Fischer]

change of tactics is a legit complaint

however, if you choose to consider running styles, they are subject to the same truths of probability as any other factors.

[andymays]

On a dirt surface it was rare for an established runner to change styles especially for a need the lead type (large class drops being the exception).

On Turf it's a little more common than dirt to see style changes.

On synthetics surfaces style changes are commonplace. Joel Rosario can do it better than anyone riding today. He is a master of changing a running style and winning. He is truly an up and coming superstar!