In case...(re: TLG)

[Cholly]

In case anybody missed it in yesterday's R8, Andy gave out, cold, the $117 exacta and the $453 tri--and, most importantly, he stated he was betting. It would be interesting to know his ROI calculated solely on those races where his pre-race commentary ends with the telltale "...and I'm going to the window."

[Light]

Oh Please!

[PaceAdvantage]

Oh Please!Stop it already. You're way past silly at this point.

The bottom line is this: Andy Serling is the best on-air handicapper in the game of racing here in the United States.

He's entertaining, informative, opinionated, and he puts a ton of work into the game.

I challenge you to post selections here on PaceAdvantage (pre-scratch, just like Andy) that outperform him over a significant amount of time. I'll be happy to keep score.

[jonnielu]

Stop it already. You're way past silly at this point.

The bottom line is this: Andy Serling is the best on-air handicapper in the game of racing here in the United States.

He's entertaining, informative, opinionated, and he puts a ton of work into the game.

I challenge you to post selections here on PaceAdvantage (pre-scratch, just like Andy) that outperform him over a significant amount of time. I'll be happy to keep score.

What would be a significant amount of time?

jdl

[PaceAdvantage]

What would be a significant amount of time?

jdlThe challenge is only open to Light. As for your question...500 races should be enough. That should only take about three months or so...

[Light]

Stop it already.

My sentiments exactly.

The bottom line is this: Andy Serling is the best on-air handicapper in the game of racing here in the United States.


I've already proved with documented evidence that he is not.



I challenge you to post selections here on PaceAdvantage (pre-scratch, just like Andy) that outperform him over a significant amount of time. I'll be happy to keep score.

I have already proved that I am one of the best handicappers here and my selections are all documented on this board.

[Barney Rubble]

The bottom line is this: Andy Serling is the best on-air handicapper in the game of racing here in the United States.



Mark and Nancy are better at MNR.

[ArlJim78]

comedy thread of the year.

[PaceAdvantage]

I've already proved with documented evidence that he is not.No you haven't. Unless you call the 36 day Saratoga meet as definitive proof of anything. Hell, your stats weren't even accurate as I recall, as you seemd to "miss a day or two." And even still, the consensus was, I believe, Andy lost 7% on his top pick for the meet...handily beating the takeout and most other public handicappers out there as I recall. In fact, based on this list, he ends up 5th in terms of ROI:

http://www.equidaily.com/bestbet/saratog2.html

Not bad for such a short study.

I have already proved that I am one of the best handicappers here and my selections are all documented on this board.While Andy was posting his selections at NYRA? I must have missed those daily posts.

My challenge still stands. If you're too afraid, or too lazy to put up picks, then that's your prerogative I suppose. My prerogative to dismiss your claims becomes easier under those circumstances.

[PaceAdvantage]

Mark and Nancy are better at MNR.Is there anyone out there tracking their win% and ROI?

[Light]

Hell, your stats weren't even accurate as I recall, as you seemd to "miss a day or two."

I missed one day and CJ filled me on the totals which were added to the posted totals. I have challenged all to tell me where exactly is the error in my data and no one says a peep cause its the cold hard facts.

In fact, based on this list, he ends up 5th in terms of ROI:

http://www.equidaily.com/bestbet/saratog2.html

Well it seems you agree with me that he is not the best public handicapper. Thanks for making my point.



My challenge still stands. If you're too afraid, or too lazy to put up picks, then that's your prerogative I suppose. My prerogative to dismiss your claims becomes easier under those circumstances.

I have played the RU pk4 challenge for something like 4 years in a row now. Its a 4 month contest as you know. I won once. Ammassed $10K another time and scored over $7k last season. Those were all profitable meets. I also played in the 2007 PA downs contest and got $75 for finishing 6th with over $8000,which was over 100% of my starting bankroll. I dont know how many contests it takes to prove to you that I am qualified to speak on this subject,and its all in your archives.

[Barney Rubble]

Is there anyone out there tracking their win% and ROI?


I watch both simulcasts everyday, and I can say, IMO, that both Mark and Nancy come across as being more knowledgible and entertaining than Serling. Without question, they pick more winners.

[PaceAdvantage]

I watch both simulcasts everyday, and I can say, IMO, that both Mark and Nancy come across as being more knowledgible and entertaining than Serling. Without question, they pick more winners.So the answer to my question was a simple no?

But, in the same breath, there is no question they pick more winners?

Gotcha.

[jonnielu]

I watch both simulcasts everyday, and I can say, IMO, that both Mark and Nancy come across as being more knowledgible and entertaining than Serling. Without question, they pick more winners.

Anytime I watch either show, I am completely shocked at how little the personalities know about horseracing.

jdl

[PaceAdvantage]

You know what Jonni...the offer is now open to you.

You post your picks for every race at NYRA on the selections section of this board, and I will track them along with Andy's so we can see how much better you are.

Picks posted before late scratches are announced, just like Andy.

Let me know when you decide to take me up on these terms.

Thanks.

[Hajck Hillstrom]

Oh Please!I'll bet you didn't see these two words causing a maelstrom, did you, Light? :lol:

Personally, I would love to see both you & jonnielu go up against Andy and post daily over a 500 race sequence. To be honest, I would check the results daily with interest, and see how things shake out.

I got no dawg in dis hunt, but am really curious how you cats would do.

[CBedo]

I watch both simulcasts everyday, and I can say, IMO, that both Mark and Nancy come across as being more knowledgible and entertaining than Serling. Without question, they pick more winners.I have ZERO real evidence, but I always cringe when Mark and Nancy are on my horse--it is the kiss of death. My friends and I refer to the two of them as the "Blowhard and Monotone Show." To me, Mark is overemphasizes perceived biases, trainers and jockeys and misses other fundamentals. I like to hear what he says, but that's about it. I'll take Andy anytime over those two.

[Light]

Personally, I would love to see both you & jonnielu go up against Andy and post daily over a 500 race sequence.

I will be playing the RU pk4 contest again this meet. Its consists of the entire winter meet at Aqueduct. I invite anyone who wants to challenge me to play in that contest,that includes TLG.

[PaceAdvantage]

I will be playing the RU pk4 contest again this meet. Its consists of the entire winter meet at Aqueduct. I invite anyone who wants to challenge me to play in that contest,that includes TLG.Do I take this as a refusal to go head-to-head against Andy under identical conditions?

Interesting...

[rastajenk]

I know that Mark and Nancy get a lot of positive reviews, but to me they are just too dry....Sahara-style dry. "Blowhard and Monotone!" :D :D That sums them up for me. I suppose they know their stuff, but a smidgen of animation wouldn't hurt.

[Java Gold@TFT]

Light and Jonnie, You seem to be missing the main point. You can pick any contest you want under specified conditions like only using P4's. The challenge is to go head to head against Andy under the same rules you hold him to. You have to pick 3 horses every race, every day regardless of how you feel about 2yo turf maidens or NYBred mdn claimers - you have to pick 3 horses in those races. Post picks before scratches and before possible off the turf races or track condition postings for every race run at a NYRA track for 3 months.

Seems like a pretty simple proposition. Either accept PA's offer to host the challenge and keep track of it or just make some other excuse as to why that wouldn't be an absolutely fair comparison of handicapping abilities. I'm sure you will also be allowed to put in comments as to why you like certain horses and not others ala any tout sheet you could buy on track or online. Just give PA a straight yes or no answer to his proposition or ignore any thread that has anything to do with Andy and move on.

[jonnielu]

You know what Jonni...the offer is now open to you.

You post your picks for every race at NYRA on the selections section of this board, and I will track them along with Andy's so we can see how much better you are.

Picks posted before late scratches are announced, just like Andy.

Let me know when you decide to take me up on these terms.

Thanks.

Such a gracious offer, but not reason enough for me to follow the NYRA circuit. I'm still appalled that while the sport dies, racetracks can't put someone on the feed that can tell people whether or not a horse is in shape while it is standing 10 feet in front of them. Or, can't tell the public what it means when a racehorse walks through allowance conditions race by race to get to a stake race, because they apparently don't know.

Appalling.

jdl

[PaceAdvantage]

Such a gracious offer, but not reason enough for me to follow the NYRA circuit. I'm still appalled that while the sport dies, racetracks can't put someone on the feed that can tell people whether or not a horse is in shape while it is standing 10 feet in front of them. Or, can't tell the public what it means when a racehorse walks through allowance conditions race by race to get to a stake race, because they apparently don't know.

Appalling.

jdlActually, what's appalling is your lack of balls.

You criticize these people and then turn down a perfectly reasonable offer to show everyone how much better you really are...not surprising by any means.

[rastajenk]

I have seen and heard lots of paddock reports about the physical appearance of the horse, but to me and many other it's about the most meaningless bit of info out there. Anybody who has seen a few thousand races has seen many ugly, swaybacked, uninterested horses come out firing and win, and just as many beautiful, muscled, sprightly types lose because they are too slow, or have no heart, or are just average in abililty and need everything to go their way.

Plus, they have time limitations that might prevent them from going line by line for most of the contenders in order to explain how they got to this point. Just because they don't expound on either of these for the personal delight of one jdl doesn't mean they don't know any better. Maybe some don't; I'm sure more than a few have got their gigs over others who might have been better at that task. But to place the blame for the decline of the game on pre-race analysts is just goofy to me.

[Steve 'StatMan']

I usually don’t post about my own personal results for those reasons above, and held off on posting my thoughts and findings a couple weeks back, but since you did ask the board, PA, thanks you, I was proud to find that after I went back & reviewed the SAR meet, and found my newspaper picks under those exact same circumstances won 104 races (28.49%). I am thrilled that my ROI, though negative was only a -6.77% (-$49.40 on $730 bet), given that our emphasis is on graded handicaps, and picking the most likely winner, with occasional good chance price risks on top when I/we find them now and then. I was disappointed yet proud when reviewing, and found that, on the next to last day of the meet, I had a top choice finish 2nd within a half length at about 20/1. That $42 would almost have made me break-even, but I know I have had good breaks as well as bad along the way. And since I realize our focus is mainly giving our customers, (maindly, but not necessarily newcomers, novice and casual fans) a fighting chance, and is sold on track by permission of the track to let customers know who the better horses are in a race, whether I personally like the race or not, I know I gave good direction, if and when they wanted to even use that advice (some use in exactas, some bet on them, some bet against, the public does just about everything imaginable) for the price ($2 for usually 7 to 9+ simulcast tracks in each issue.) our customers sure got their $2 worth, if not by coming back with more money on the day they attended, at least being able to yell a lot at a bunch of winners and a lot of close ones and help them love the game and come back another day and try again, and give everyone more people in the pools to try to bet against.

I cover 4 to 9 tracks a day, so especially thrilled since I have to take a wide U.S. focus, from Portland Meadows to the Dubai World Cup, and do the vast majority of my handicapping work manually. The time I spend is limited due to that, and of course the pay per track is limited as well. I know Andy did a darn good job with his advance picks. Plus a few winners different here or there, the results and imaginary standings among all handicappers, public and personal, change every day. I’m lucky I don’t have to go through all that video tape and take notes and do seminars and go on TV and explain the pros and cons, of not only my choice, but several choices in a race. Many races, there are mutlitple likely winners, and the difference isn’t necessarily obvious – and when it is obvious, then those are heavy chalks, and most on here don’t bet them and grumble about them anyway. In his case, the money should obviously be better, but he had the seminars and the TV time, and a lot to point out and other great ways to help one make a decision.

Neither Andy, nor I, nor any other public handicapper forces one to bet on only our top choices, or any way of betting. It is all just a guide. The tracks have TV shows and pre-race previews, on-track tip sheets, track program comments, etc. so that their fans, their customers, who came to the track or OTB with the intention of betting on the horse races, can have some idea of which hores might be better, or have some information, that might be of help if they decide to place a wager – whether their actual wager is a good long-term wager or not, no matter if the decision was influenced or not by one or more public handicappers, information providers, racing newspapers, etc. It does not hurt us or help us whether they used what we provided to make their wagering decisions.

By the way, I'd love to have my picks, in a 24-hour selection format, be pitted against anyone & everyone, and would love to see others too. Because mine are for sale, and therefore owned by the company I work for and not me personally, I'd love to participate and send them in, but not published until after the card, or minimally at least the first couple races of the card, where our customers would likely have made their purchases already. In a few weeks, I could help manually grade too if it would help.

One last thought (gee, I'd wanted this to be short, and have spent at least 2 1/2 hours on this already) there were 2 threads at the same time about SPA public handicappers results. The other one had a link to Equidaily's website, where they ranked the results of 26 public, in-advance handicappers, including their own. Andymays originally started that thread - here is the link http://www.equidaily.com/bestbet/archive/2009/spa/0908a.htm. Only one had a postive ROI, although several had ROI's under -10%, and some under -8%. Andy would have ranked quite well on the list, but is not on it. My own self, if added to their list to their list of 26, would have ranked tied for 7th in wins. My ROI, when ranked vs the 18 on their list that listed ROI, would have ranked 3rd. I'm very thrilled. There are many good handicappers on that list. There are also many good handicappers not on that list, plenty could have done better and results can move all over. But anyone who wants to compare themselves directly to public handiappers needs to either be happy with what they do on their own, or if they want to compare, then compare under the same 24+ advance situation for the entire meet. Then you might have an idea of where you stack up - but there are still variances & fluctuations. Be glad, be proud, but don't thump your chest too much yourself, because when people do, there are always plenty of people who will punch you in it, for good reasons or not.

Many of us on the board are good at this. Doesn't matter if it is our contests, public contests, national contests, etc. Too many good ones out there that absolutely none can ever be, nor stay, the be-all, end-all best.

Just try to be good at what you do, and if betting, try to be as good as you want to be. Find inspiration where you find it helpful, only if it is helpful, and be happy with yourself, and don't worry that much about everyone else. Chances are good that they don't necessarily think they are better than you. It's just exposure, opportunity, and good work.

Bowling Alleys need House Balls, Rental Shoes, How-To-Books, and some knowledgable people, even a house pro, to help people with the game, or else noone would try the game. They will do better with a properly custome fitted bowling ball, their own bowling shoes, and lessons. How well they do at bowling is up the the customer and the effort they eventually put in. Bowling Alleys must have these to survive as a business.

Public Handicappers - TV, Newspaper, Internet, are the Racetracks. Some of the Racetracks customers don't need them, or have advanced beyond having a use for them - most people on this board are in this situation. Others do have a need, and the Racetracks definitely have a need. They'll pay someone to do it. If they don't hire and pay us, they will hire others, maybe even try to hire you someday if you want to and are in a position to do that - most earn far better much money in their regular jobs to do this. But some of guys & gals, available for free or reasonably low rates, do some decent work. And help keep you in other bettors to compete against and try to beat at the windows.

[Tom]

Game on, boys. Put up or shut up.

[ArlJim78]

I have no interest in listening to people prattle on about the fitness of horses. I must agree that it is as close to useless information as you can get.
I thought that is why they film the horses in the paddock and post parade, so that people who want to can make their own judgements. I had no idea that anyone tuned in to the track feed hoping to get fitness opinions on the horses.
live and learn.

[jonnielu]

Actually, what's appalling is your lack of balls.

You criticize these people and then turn down a perfectly reasonable offer to show everyone how much better you really are...not surprising by any means.

Your opinion is duly registered, but I'm no more interested in putting out information on NYRA tracks then Andy is in doing a show for a track that isn't paying him.

The exodus of fans speaks to the value of track handicappers without me saying a word, or doing anything.

jdl

[PaceAdvantage]

You and Light should team up...sounds like you two would be perfect together.

All that BRAVADO when you're trying to take Andy down a notch or two, but you both are appearing to turn tail when presented with a reasonable challenge.

Bunch of wussies if you ask me.

[Steve 'StatMan']

I will be playing the RU pk4 contest again this meet. Its consists of the entire winter meet at Aqueduct. I invite anyone who wants to challenge me to play in that contest,that includes TLG.

I know I put entries into that contest now and then, but I personally just play that contest for fun. Free contests are easier to put in entries without necessarily putting in much work, frankly they are more for fun. Doing well in it is nice, but given one can use so many horses in each leg, and $200 in a ficticious bankroll, to me it might prove one has talent but it certainly doesn't prove people are more talented than others.

What you get out of it depends on what you put into it, and what you draw from may be different, as the achievement is tempererd somewhat by what others are putting into it. You do do well in the Pick 4 contest, congratulations again. Now, who's better or worse among us, I don't know, and am not really concerened. Hope everyone achieves the best of what they can given their situations.

[jonnielu]

I have seen and heard lots of paddock reports about the physical appearance of the horse, but to me and many other it's about the most meaningless bit of info out there. Anybody who has seen a few thousand races has seen many ugly, swaybacked, uninterested horses come out firing and win, and just as many beautiful, muscled, sprightly types lose because they are too slow, or have no heart, or are just average in abililty and need everything to go their way.

Plus, they have time limitations that might prevent them from going line by line for most of the contenders in order to explain how they got to this point. Just because they don't expound on either of these for the personal delight of one jdl doesn't mean they don't know any better. Maybe some don't; I'm sure more than a few have got their gigs over others who might have been better at that task. But to place the blame for the decline of the game on pre-race analysts is just goofy to me.

Let me put it this way, when the track handicapper expresses the question of whether or not a lay-off horse is in shape or not, while looking dead at the horse 10 feet in front of him as he wonders, cannot decide...

jdl

[PaceAdvantage]

Let me put it this way, when the track handicapper expresses the question of whether or not a lay-off horse is in shape or not, while looking dead at the horse 10 feet in front of him as he wonders, cannot decide...

jdlHe may look in shape and still not be in shape. That skin disease, bone chip, twisted ankle, upper-respiratory infection, or whatever else kept him on the sidelines may still impact his performance no matter how shiny his coat or rippled his muscles appear to be in the walking ring.

But I do appreciate your continued effort to shy away from my reasonable offer. I'll keep reminding you of just such every now and then as long as you continue to post.

[Space Monkey]

I know I'm not invited, but little ole me, who is not a pro, would love the challenge. PA, I'm not looking for an invite, as I have a day job and couldn't come close to devoting the time it would take daily to compete. But I do know that if I did have the time, and did consider myself a professional, I would jump at this offer and certainly offer some side bet action. Talk is cheap. :cool:

[PaceAdvantage]

I know I'm not invited, but little ole me, who is not a pro, would love the challenge. PA, I'm not looking for an invite, as I have a day job and couldn't come close to devoting the time it would take daily to compete. But I do know that if I did have the time, and did consider myself a professional, I would jump at this offer and certainly offer some side bet action. Talk is cheap. :cool:Didn't you get my private message the other day?

[classhandicapper]

I have to add my two cents here.

IMO any evaluation of selections made for every race is pretty much a waste of time. I think it's inevitable that regardless of whether you are trying to pick the most probable winner in every race, horses that might offer potential value, or some combo of both, the odds on some of those horses are going to be well below what you think is a fair price.

So why include the ROI on horses the handicapper would tell you not to bet!

The only way to evaluate a handicapper is to track his actual bets (Andy does Twitter a lot of his actual bets) or if the handicapper gives a minimum odds acceptable for each horse (Steve Klein at the DRF did that profitably for quite awhile).

The other point I would make is that I think we all have areas of our game where we have excellent insights and other areas that are either weaknesses, misunderstandings, etc... So I think it's inevitable that if you listen to any top level handicapper comment about a broad range of races, horses, topics, handicapping disciplines etc... you are going to notice a few gaping holes in their game. The thing is, it's easy to notice other people's weaknesses but a lot tougher to notice your own. So the assumption that so and so is bad because he doesn't know or understand "X" and you do is flawed.

[banacek]

Let me put it this way, when the track handicapper expresses the question of whether or not a lay-off horse is in shape or not, while looking dead at the horse 10 feet in front of him as he wonders, cannot decide...

jdl

Well, at least he makes his selections before the race is run.

[jonnielu]

You and Light should team up...sounds like you two would be perfect together.

All that BRAVADO when you're trying to take Andy down a notch or two, but you both are appearing to turn tail when presented with a reasonable challenge.

Bunch of wussies if you ask me.

Taking Andy down a notch or two, just doesn't take as much work as following NY racing for 3 months for nothing. Maybe if Andy could get a job on a more appealing circuit.

That is some good pot-stirring you are doing there though. That might get me to put up the JCGC trifecta or super.

jdl

[Jay Trotter]

Cholly, when you started this thread you were either being very "naughty" or simply had no idea where this would go....


http://community.spiceworks.com/images/users/0003/5008/EvilCalvinHobbesTrans.png

I'm willing to pony up a Benjamin to back Andy in a match vs. these two!!!



In case anybody missed it in yesterday's R8, Andy gave out, cold, the $117 exacta and the $453 tri--and, most importantly, he stated he was betting. It would be interesting to know his ROI calculated solely on those races where his pre-race commentary ends with the telltale "...and I'm going to the window."

[classhandicapper]

Oh, and for the record, Andy had a ridiculously good day on his bets twittered yesterday.

[jonnielu]

He may look in shape and still not be in shape. That skin disease, bone chip, twisted ankle, upper-respiratory infection, or whatever else kept him on the sidelines may still impact his performance no matter how shiny his coat or rippled his muscles appear to be in the walking ring.

But I do appreciate your continued effort to shy away from my reasonable offer. I'll keep reminding you of just such every now and then as long as you continue to post.

Please, be reasonable, a horse gone 6 - 8 months is not rushed back. A horse does not get "looking in shape" standing around a stall. They do so with work. It really isn't complicated.

Remind me all you want, just remember, my record is public already.

jdl

[PaceAdvantage]

Taking Andy down a notch or two, just doesn't take as much work as following NY racing for 3 months for nothing. Maybe if Andy could get a job on a more appealing circuit.

That is some good pot-stirring you are doing there though. That might get me to put up the JCGC trifecta or super.

jdlCome on Jonnie...why are you dissing NY racing? The most popular circuit in the land based on handle? I'd have to surmise that lots of your customers (or potential customers) pay attention to NYRA.

It would definitely be worth your while. That's a fact.

Therefore, your continued decline of my invitation is baffling.

[Tom]

Please, be reasonable, a horse gone 6 - 8 months is not rushed back. A horse does not get "looking in shape" standing around a stall. They do so with work. It really isn't complicated.

Remind me all you want, just remember, my record is public already.

jdl

Public? :lol::lol::lol: I read all about it from Patrick!

After you said No to this, your credibility went out the window. Comparing you to Andy is like the new Mac commercial, the one where the well dressed guy offers his card to the girl and tells her, "When you decide to compromise, give me a call." :lol:

Like a great 'capper use to say Bwwwwwwwaaaaack +++++++++++++++++++++

[netbet]

Mark and Nancy are entertaining? I must be watching a different simulcast signal. They bore the snot out of me. I respect their opinions of the races but I think they talk much to long.

Mr. Serling on the other hand, is very entertaining to me and I respect his opinions. I follow him on Twitter whenever I am betting NYRA.

As they say....different strokes for different folks.


I watch both simulcasts everyday, and I can say, IMO, that both Mark and Nancy come across as being more knowledgible and entertaining than Serling. Without question, they pick more winners.

[ArlJim78]

Taking Andy down a notch or two, just doesn't take as much work as following NY racing for 3 months for nothing. Maybe if Andy could get a job on a more appealing circuit.

you haven't laid a glove on him, you've only taken yourself down a notch or two.

[PaceAdvantage]

Oh, and for the record, Andy had a ridiculously good day on his bets twittered yesterday.Let's review, shall we?

There should be a hot pace in the 1st to set things up well for O'Sotopretty. Both the 2&4 can win but I don't trust either one.O'Sotopretty wins @ $14.40 and #2 completed a $72.50 exacta.Excellent betting race in the 6th. I prefer Cherokee Speed over Kutais but Mr Sandman is also dangerous.Zip.In the 8th race, Solvent gets the firm turf he needs and is meeting the easiest field in a while. I like him a lot.Solvent wins @ $19.00.What a great way for Indian Blessing to go out on dirt ( even though it knocked me out of the pick 4 ). 9-10 box, 9 to win, in 10thZip.

Two for Four on top. $4 wagered. $33.40 returned.

[Imriledup]

Stop it already. You're way past silly at this point.

The bottom line is this: Andy Serling is the best on-air handicapper in the game of racing here in the United States.

He's entertaining, informative, opinionated, and he puts a ton of work into the game.

I challenge you to post selections here on PaceAdvantage (pre-scratch, just like Andy) that outperform him over a significant amount of time. I'll be happy to keep score.


Who's the 2nd best on air handicapper? Who's he better than?

[Java Gold@TFT]

That is some good pot-stirring you are doing there though. That might get me to put up the JCGC trifecta or super.

jdl
Please go ahead and put up the tri and super for the JCGC in advance. I'm dying to see your philosophy on betting a super in what looks to be a 6 or 7 horse field.

[RichieP]

I have seen and heard lots of paddock reports about the physical appearance of the horse, but to me and many other it's about the most meaningless bit of info out there. Anybody who has seen a few thousand races has seen many ugly, swaybacked, uninterested horses come out firing and win, and just as many beautiful, muscled, sprightly types lose because they are too slow, or have no heart, or are just average in abililty and need everything to go their way.

But to place the blame for the decline of the game on pre-race analysts is just goofy to me.

What "RJ" said! :ThmbUp:

[Light]

Do I take this as a refusal to go head-to-head against Andy under identical conditions?

Interesting...

What would I get out of kicking TLG's ass in a handicapping match? Would it stop this idol worship towards him that makes me want to puke? Would my criticism about him suddenly become valid? Bull. It would accomplish nothing.

I got a day job,I run my own business. TLG gets paid for what he does. You want me to waste my time handicapping 500 races for what? To please your egoes? The only way I would do this is if you paid me to do this just like TLG gets paid. Then I'm still at a disadvantage cause handicapping is his job. Mine is fixing cars and dealing with customers all day.I would be at a distinct disadvantage because when you own your own business,you dont have time to handicap the night before. You got to get ready for the next day. That's why you'd have to pay me to play.

Otherwise I've offered twice to go against him for free when the winter Aqu meet starts which I play on the weekends only.

But all this isn't even the point in the first place. The point is we have these shills who keep coming out of the woodwork and telling us what a great handicapper TLG is when I have documented that he sucks. O.K -7% may be great relatively speaking to other handicappers but you're pathetic if you're over -10% and should quit.Stick to your day job.

I could pick out any handicapper in the country or any handicapper I know and take a winning bet out of context and parade it on this board like he is hot stuff. Barf! We are not inexperienced handicappers here. We are probably some of the most sophisticated handicappers and we are not dumb enough to believe a claim of superiority without proof.

It is TLG who needs to prove that he can earn a positive ROI. As I said I have proved several times I can do it. He has yet to prove anything but hide behind his deluded fans.

[PaceAdvantage]

As I said I have proved several times I can do it.You've proven nothing. All of the contests I run are relatively short lived, and plus, you are able to get your selections in AFTER most late scratches and surface conditions are known.

Why am I not surprised that you continue to offer nothing but excuses when confronted and challenged?

Nobody came after YOU out of the blue. YOU were the one who chose to make a spectacle of yourself by going after Andy. Thus, when challenged, we would expect YOU to be CHOMPING AT THE BIT to back up all of your WORDS with actual DEEDS.

"No can do" is all I'm hearing now.

[classhandicapper]

It is TLG who needs to prove that he can earn a positive ROI. As I said I have proved several times I can do it. He has yet to prove anything but hide behind his deluded fans.

Why don't you try a little experiment (one that I do not know the answer to)?

Calculate the ROI on all his top picks made before scratches, late changes in track condition, odds etc... but only track those at 3-1 or higher (or even some other arbitrary cutoff) in an attempt to exclude many of the horses he would probably exclude in his own betting.

If that's too much work, track all his Twittered bets going forward. It will take no more than 5 minutes a day.

[Light]

One thing people dont realize is that his show is on AFTER SCRATCHES.

[Light]

You've proven nothing. All of the contests I run are relatively short lived,

You call a 4 month contest short lived?

[PaceAdvantage]

One thing people dont realize is that his show is on AFTER SCRATCHES.You charted his picks that appeared on the website, no?

[PaceAdvantage]

You call a 4 month contest short lived?Do you have Andy's stats on Pick 4s handy? Then perhaps we can finally compare apples to apples.

I'm talking about a straight top pick to win throw down...pre-scratch...

Does anyone know when Andy gets his picks on the NYRA site? Do they go up before track conditions are known and/or turf races are switched to dirt?

[cj]

Mark and Nancy are better at MNR.

Sounds like you have been smoking some serious bedrock.

[cj]

I will be playing the RU pk4 contest again this meet. Its consists of the entire winter meet at Aqueduct. I invite anyone who wants to challenge me to play in that contest,that includes TLG.

The one where you play only four races each card, and get to choose between two different four race sequences?

[rastajenk]

Let me put it this way, when the track handicapper expresses the question of whether or not a lay-off horse is in shape or not, while looking dead at the horse 10 feet in front of him as he wonders, cannot decide...About as informative as most of your other contributions...

[cj]

I have no interest in listening to people prattle on about the fitness of horses. I must agree that it is as close to useless information as you can get.
I thought that is why they film the horses in the paddock and post parade, so that people who want to can make their own judgements. I had no idea that anyone tuned in to the track feed hoping to get fitness opinions on the horses.
live and learn.

The physical appearance of horses in and of itself is of little importance. The only way I have found to use the information is if you track how the horse looks each time out and look for differences, both positive and negative, today!

[Light]

You charted his picks that appeared on the website, no?

Yes,the website picks are the same as the after scratches picks he discusses on his show.

[Light]

The one where you play only four races each card, and get to choose between two different four race sequences?

Yes. You've played it in the past as well.

[classhandicapper]

Yes,the website picks are the same as the after scratches picks he discusses on his show.

This is not exactly true.

A late scratch can have a huge impact on the race development. Even if he gets to discuss that just prior to the race, it won't be reflected in the NYRA selections.

[cmoore]

I'll challenge Andy starting in January..Aqueduct meet..It's an 82 day meet..Come on people..Join in? This should be fun..Here's the rules..I'll put in one pick and that's it..PaceAdvantage will count Andys first pick and that's it..Let's make it a wp contest. If your pick is scratched. Then you get the post time favorite. This will cause each of us to have the same number of picks throughout the meet. Picks have to posted before scratches..This won't be as much of a problem handicapping Aqueduct. No turf racing..Why don't we make this a money contest. We can probably get 10 or 20 of us in this..50 bucks each..Winner take all..Highest ROI wins it..

[jonnielu]

Come on Jonnie...why are you dissing NY racing? The most popular circuit in the land based on handle? I'd have to surmise that lots of your customers (or potential customers) pay attention to NYRA.

It would definitely be worth your while. That's a fact.

Therefore, your continued decline of my invitation is baffling.

Well, these days it's not just NY, it is the whole establishment.

My potential customers are at the casino. I don't have a chance with any hardened handicappers. They are already lost. Besides, I have little chance to sell something that is different, by doing it in the same way, when that same way has a crippling effect.

jdl

[cj]

Yes. You've played it in the past as well.

A few times in the beginning. I'll be the first to admit I'm not a P4 player.

My point was it isn't the same as picking every race, every day.

[jonnielu]

you haven't laid a glove on him, you've only taken yourself down a notch or two.

I haven't even been trying.

jdl

[ArlJim78]

A few times in the beginning. I'll be the first to admit I'm not a P4 player.

My point was it isn't the same as picking every race, every day.

where can you find this RU contest?

[Steve 'StatMan']

where can you find this RU contest?

The Ridersup Memorial Aqueduct Inner Track Challenge

It's the first forum listed in the Contest Forum section.

[jonnielu]

Please go ahead and put up the tri and super for the JCGC in advance. I'm dying to see your philosophy on betting a super in what looks to be a 6 or 7 horse field.


tri OR super


I suppose in that case, it would be a tri.

jdl

[ArlJim78]

The Ridersup Memorial Aqueduct Inner Track Challenge

It's the first forum listed in the Contest Forum section.
thanks

[bigmack]

Sounds like you have smoking some serious bedrock.
Laughter broke out in this camp.

Apples & oranges analogy would be a disservice to fruit. More like celery to salamanders.

[The Hawk]

First off, we all know this thread is ridiculous..........

Brad Thomas is easily the best on-track handicapper. :)

Anyway, following these TLG threads, I feel like the disagreement is a question of semantics in some regard. What makes a good public handicapper? Light, and his ilk, think Andy sucks because he doesn't show a flat-bet profit on all of his picks, on every race, which is of course ridiculous. But that's how he's judging him, which makes his premise faulty. Andy's supporters, on the other hand, conveniently overlook long losing streaks when a $117 exacta comes in. I get Light's point...Andy can go weeks without a winner, I guess, and then when a pick wins we get a new thread.

However, IMO, Light doesn't get that Andy goes beyond simply picking a horse because "he was 2nd at this level last time", and he apparently tries to teach the nuances of the game, maybe not to us, but to newcomers. THAT'S what makes him better than average. If he happens to have a decent ROI (it's not going to be profitable, picking every race), so much the better.

[PaceAdvantage]

Andy can go weeks without a winner, I guess, and then when a pick wins we get a new thread.Weeks without picking a winner? Ridiculous indeed...

[cj]

I personally like the use of "shills" by light. What exactly would he need shills for? He isn't selling anything. Do you think he is directing people to post for him then directing his NYRA bosses here to PA to read?

[The Hawk]

Weeks without picking a winner? Ridiculous indeed...

You're right, when I wrote "winner" I meant one at a huge price, my apologies.

[Cholly]

Naughty?...Moi? Surely you jest. Actually, I only intended to draw attention to the distinction between Mr. Serling’s every-race picks (which he has to do--it’s his job) and those selections where he signals an opinion strong enough that he will actually be betting on that race.

But in all candor, I care little about the accuracy (or inaccuracy) of Mr. Serling’s picks. I watch because Andy and his co-hosts lend and expose their own personalities to a sport that unfortunately tends to morph into a boring blur of numbers. More interestingly, they impart and bring to the forefront the personalities of the horses and the horses’ human cohorts.

Cut to Saturday’s Gallant Bloom. After Andy and Jason noted they were picking against Indian Blessing, they spent several minutes extolling the greatness of her career and stating why, win or lose that race, she exemplified what a Champion is. They blew their picks—but they reminded us that Indian Blessing was not just a race entrant, but a flesh and bones entity who had brought drama and excitement into the lives of New York racing fans.

That’s all I’ve got to say about that, except that I pledge to never ever again say anything about any scores Andy makes. Just call me…

Deluded in Duluth

[Tom]

How about light and Jonnie go up against the TVG heads!:lol:

[PaceAdvantage]

Light and Jonnie are turning out to be "all hat, no cattle." I for one am severely disappointed that neither is willing to simply post their top three for every race on the NYRA card for 500 races.

You would think they would relish the chance to show up Andy on the PA stage. You don't think they're actually afraid of someone they show so much contempt for, do you?

[Light]

I'm not dodging anything. You want me to pick 500 races now,you pay me. My time is worth money. You want my picks for free,then you have to wait for the Aqu inner dirt meet starting in December. Its that simple.

[SansuiSC]

Stop it already. You're way past silly at this point.

The bottom line is this: Andy Serling is the best on-air handicapper in the game of racing here in the United States.

He's entertaining, informative, opinionated, and he puts a ton of work into the game.

I challenge you to post selections here on PaceAdvantage (pre-scratch, just like Andy) that outperform him over a significant amount of time. I'll be happy to keep score.


Post of the year!!!


Talking horses, pre race, and tweets put the crew of Andy, Jason, and Eric tops in the industry......NO DOUBT! Andy leads the pack for sure.

I read the form, look at sheets from time to time, track mutual boards heavily and "LISTEN" to Andy, Jason and Eric every day. It's my circuit over 40 years. I listened when only Jason and Eric did it and they did a very good job, however since Andy joined the crew, he brought a new aspect of looking at the races and brought along hefty priced winners to boot.

I do not look at their picks in a 1-4 science, I consider their 4 selections as contenders. Even Andy at times has said he is betting what he listed second or third or fourth in the pre race prattle at times. Some of the heavy hitters I know listen to him very closely. He is a handicapper that commands respect.

If you "LISTEN" to him you will see if his opinion is strong in his selections or he just has to speculate what may happen in a low level claimer or some other garbage race that any of us would pass. He has to make a selection because he is required by his job. So looking at every "top" selection is no way to gauge him, his ability to pick a winner, or ROI. On many occasions, he will say "horses a.b.c" and you have the race covered. We may already know that from reading the form and he just solidify's it for you or maybe you saw another 2 and can feel comfortable chucking them. If you're playing pick 3, 4 , or 6 that could be very good information.

I took the track home Wednesday thanks to Andy and Eric and didn't post a damn thing, so don't think there are not other days that he's padding peoples bankrolls and it's just not being posted.

I'm no "shill" for Andy but appreciate what he brings to the table every day and find it funny that PA put out the challenge for the only two bashers of him on this board and they will not take him up on it. Keep playing for bobble head dolls while Andy could probably buy the company that makes them based on when he pulls the trigger and lines his pockets. And when he pulls the trigger he lets people know. That is ballsy to do in the public eye and he backs it up.

That commands respect!

SSC

[docicu3]

Post of the year!!!


Talking horses, pre race, and tweets put the crew of Andy, Jason, and Eric tops in the industry......NO DOUBT! Andy leads the pack for sure.

I read the form, look at sheets from time to time, track mutual boards heavily and "LISTEN" to Andy, Jason and Eric every day. It's my circuit over 40 years. I listened when only Jason and Eric did it and they did a very good job, however since Andy joined the crew, he brought a new aspect of looking at the races and brought along hefty priced winners to boot.

I do not look at their picks in a 1-4 science, I consider their 4 selections as contenders. Even Andy at times has said he is betting what he listed second or third or fourth in the pre race prattle at times. Some of the heavy hitters I know listen to him very closely. He is a handicapper that commands respect.

If you "LISTEN" to him you will see if his opinion is strong in his selections or he just has to speculate what may happen in a low level claimer or some other garbage race that any of us would pass. He has to make a selection because he is required by his job. So looking at every "top" selection is no way to gauge him, his ability to pick a winner, or ROI. On many occasions, he will say "horses a.b.c" and you have the race covered. We may already know that from reading the form and he just solidify's it for you or maybe you saw another 2 and can feel comfortable chucking them. If you're playing pick 3, 4 , or 6 that could be very good information.

I took the track home Wednesday thanks to Andy and Eric and didn't post a damn thing, so don't think there are not other days that he's padding peoples bankrolls and it's just not being posted.

I'm no "shill" for Andy but appreciate what he brings to the table every day and find it funny that PA put out the challenge for the only two bashers of him on this board and they will not take him up on it. Keep playing for bobble head dolls while Andy could probably buy the company that makes them based on when he pulls the trigger and lines his pockets. And when he pulls the trigger he lets people know. That is ballsy to do in the public eye and he backs it up.

That commands respect!

SSC

Exactly........nothing more need be said. Intelligence at the track is made up of the combination of good information and experience. Andy donates this combination for the price of an internet feed. What else could you want?

[PaceAdvantage]

I'm not dodging anything. You want me to pick 500 races now,you pay me. My time is worth money. You want my picks for free,then you have to wait for the Aqu inner dirt meet starting in December. Its that simple.You don't get to come on here and dictate terms to me after you insult another member of this board in an earlier thread and follow that up with your snide remarks in this thread.

You are dodging, big time, and everyone can see it for what it is. I gave you a way to justify your hubris. You choose to turn tail and run away, that's your business.

The offer still stands...500 races is a fair enough test. Top three picks, every racing day at NYRA. It will be good practice for you come December. The RU contest, as CJ already pointed out, would never be a true measure of your self-professed greatness.

I want you to have every chance in the world to trounce Andy...what could be fairer or more revealing?

Unless of course the very real prospect of losing to Andy frightens you so much that you're willing to lose face right here, right now.

[Hosshead]

... I also played in the 2007 PA downs contest and got $75 for finishing 6th with over $8000,which was over 100% of my starting bankroll.
Actually I finished 3rd in that same contest (same starting bankrool), but IMO for TLG to do as good as he does .. picking every race, is superb handicapping .

[Imriledup]

All this talk is making me think that NYRA isnt' all that hard to beat. You guys are going to make me switch my 'tack' and start betting over there!

[jonnielu]

First off, we all know this thread is ridiculous..........

Brad Thomas is easily the best on-track handicapper. :)

Anyway, following these TLG threads, I feel like the disagreement is a question of semantics in some regard. What makes a good public handicapper? Light, and his ilk, think Andy sucks because he doesn't show a flat-bet profit on all of his picks, on every race, which is of course ridiculous. But that's how he's judging him, which makes his premise faulty. Andy's supporters, on the other hand, conveniently overlook long losing streaks when a $117 exacta comes in. I get Light's point...Andy can go weeks without a winner, I guess, and then when a pick wins we get a new thread.

However, IMO, Light doesn't get that Andy goes beyond simply picking a horse because "he was 2nd at this level last time", and he apparently tries to teach the nuances of the game, maybe not to us, but to newcomers. THAT'S what makes him better than average. If he happens to have a decent ROI (it's not going to be profitable, picking every race), so much the better.

Bottom line, he sends newcomers to the casino by demonstrating that a "professional" handicapper can't beat the takeout. He sends newcomers to the casino by insisting that it is all in the numbers, while the numbers horse loses 7 - 8 races a day like clockwork. Then, he tells newcomers that they must become "trip handicappers" to succeed on the grass, while his own trip handicapping nets winners inconsistently.

Of course, it is racing that puts him out there with all of those negative messages, because racing would rather sell another copy of the data, then to convert a new fan from the poker table.

By attempting to sell racing by selling handicapping, racing only clearly demonstrates the shortcomings while never touching on the consistencies that can attract people to the game, but sell few "expert" opinions or publications.

jdl

[rastajenk]

Consistencies that can attract new fans? Just what are those? For over two years you've been on here claiming you have the secret code, but you've never been able to articulate it, or have chosen not to.

Is judging horses by their physical appearance a consistency that can attract new fans? New fans willing and able to wager new dollars?

You also take a shot at "the numbers." I remember some redboarding by you after after a Keeneland Derby prep in '08 (BG or Lexington; I think the latter) in which your explanation of how easy it was, was a bunch of numbers. Nobody knows where your numbers come from or why they are better than those used by all the traditional know-nothing handicappers out there driving people away, but they were numbers nonetheless.

Racing is desperate for new angles; you claim to have them. Come down off your holy throne on your holy mount and enlighten the great unwashed. If your wisdom is such a game-changer, why do you have such resistance to explaining it?

[Tom]

I'm not dodging anything. You want me to pick 500 races now,you pay me. My time is worth money. You want my picks for free,then you have to wait for the Aqu inner dirt meet starting in December. Its that simple.

We all get Andy's picks for free.

[Tom]

Bottom line, he sends newcomers to the casino by demonstrating that a "professional" handicapper can't beat the takeout. He sends newcomers to the casino by insisting that it is all in the numbers, while the numbers horse loses 7 - 8 races a day like clockwork. Then, he tells newcomers that they must become "trip handicappers" to succeed on the grass, while his own trip handicapping nets winners inconsistently.

Of course, it is racing that puts him out there with all of those negative messages, because racing would rather sell another copy of the data, then to convert a new fan from the poker table.

By attempting to sell racing by selling handicapping, racing only clearly demonstrates the shortcomings while never touching on the consistencies that can attract people to the game, but sell few "expert" opinions or publications.

jdl


Oh man, that is such a ridiculous stretch, I can't believe you threw it out.
Newcomers do not keep score....what you suggest they process as information is not on their radar. Try again, but come back with something believable. :lol::lol:

[jonnielu]

Light and Jonnie are turning out to be "all hat, no cattle." I for one am severely disappointed that neither is willing to simply post their top three for every race on the NYRA card for 500 races.

You would think they would relish the chance to show up Andy on the PA stage. You don't think they're actually afraid of someone they show so much contempt for, do you?

There is no reason for me to work with my hands tied, at least TLG gets a check from NYRA in exchange. I'm sure that he knows how to win in NY, and it is not by engaging in which horse is better then the rest for every race.

I'm following Kentucky racing now, I already followed NY enough for my purposes with Monmouth and Saratoga, so now it is Turfway/Keeneland/Churchill.

jdl

[JustRalph]

Andy.......... :ThmbUp:

Mark and Nancy....... :ThmbUp:

It's like watching the old Roseanne Show on the road at Mountaineer :lol:

Spend a race card or two standing on the Balcony at Keeneland with Purple Power............and you will learn about physicality and picking them in the paddock.........it's tough to do on television (I wish there was HD feeds) but I loved it and it does pay off sometimes.........especially if you use it to pick against a horse...........

This is a good thread.........lots of stuff revealed in here.

PA.......time for some more contests!!

[jonnielu]

Consistencies that can attract new fans? Just what are those? For over two years you've been on here claiming you have the secret code, but you've never been able to articulate it, or have chosen not to.

Is judging horses by their physical appearance a consistency that can attract new fans? New fans willing and able to wager new dollars?

You also take a shot at "the numbers." I remember some redboarding by you after after a Keeneland Derby prep in '08 (BG or Lexington; I think the latter) in which your explanation of how easy it was, was a bunch of numbers. Nobody knows where your numbers come from or why they are better than those used by all the traditional know-nothing handicappers out there driving people away, but they were numbers nonetheless.

Racing is desperate for new angles; you claim to have them. Come down off your holy throne on your holy mount and enlighten the great unwashed. If your wisdom is such a game-changer, why do you have such resistance to explaining it?

Primarily, there is one consistency of horse racing that can attract new fans. The top 4 ML odds horses will win roughly 70% of the races, virtually on any given day.

On physicality, tell the beginner to look for the sharpest looking horse that warms up without a lead pony, and bet it to place.

Either one, or both together, will put some success in the beginner's hand. And, promote some interest in the game, not so much an interest in handicapping. But, neither will sell one newspaper, speed figure, handicapper's opinion, or line of data.

Instead, a guy walks into the track and says it looks like an interesting game, he'd like to learn more about it. Racing throws the Library of Congress at him and says, buy this, and study real hard, maybe if you work real hard, you can be as good as our track guy over there. Who picks one winner a day.

I have no interest in explaining my ratings to handicappers. It is just plain unlikely that anyone with 5 years as a handicapper would ever again be open minded enough to consider methods that are contrary to those to which he/she is subscribed.

I could pound this keyboard until the day I die, and never get my ratings across to a commited handicapper. I've got better things to do, it pays better just to use them for myself.

jdl

[Tom]

Yeah, that's the ticket. :lol:

[newtothegame]

There is no reason for me to work with my hands tied, at least TLG gets a check from NYRA in exchange. I'm sure that he knows how to win in NY, and it is not by engaging in which horse is better then the rest for every race.

I'm following Kentucky racing now, I already followed NY enough for my purposes with Monmouth and Saratoga, so now it is Turfway/Keeneland/Churchill.

jdl

So now you're "Sure that he knows how to win in NY".....
Amazing how you went from the insinuations to now you're sure he can win. Amazing I took up for you when Patrick talked about how bad your picks were. My fault Patrick...my apologies regarding Jonn and his picks if your reading this.

[Quagmire]

On physicality, tell the beginner to look for the sharpest looking horse that warms up without a lead pony, and bet it to place.
jdl

This needs to go into the Secrets of Handicapping thread. You have cracked the code!

[OTM Al]

Any possiblity of permanently banning this topic?

Seriously guys, go buy a racy sportscar if you feel so "small". Or maybe you already have one......

[castaway01]

Any possiblity of permanently banning this topic?

Seriously guys, go buy a racy sportscar if you feel so "small". Or maybe you already have one......

That's the best post yet in the thread (okay, PA had some excellent ones too)---we get it, you two guys don't like Andy. Time to move on---500 posts each about him is plenty, isn't it?

[ArlJim78]

Primarily, there is one consistency of horse racing that can attract new fans. The top 4 ML odds horses will win roughly 70% of the races, virtually on any given day.

On physicality, tell the beginner to look for the sharpest looking horse that warms up without a lead pony, and bet it to place.

Either one, or both together, will put some success in the beginner's hand. And, promote some interest in the game, not so much an interest in handicapping. But, neither will sell one newspaper, speed figure, handicapper's opinion, or line of data.

How embarrassing for you to post this, because I'm sure you're dead serious.

Your tips for beginners are both losers.

[Light]

So looking at every "top" selection is no way to gauge him, his ability to pick a winner, or ROI. On many occasions, he will say "horses a.b.c" and you have the race covered.

When I did the study of his picks at Saratoga that I posted in that closed thread ,I included this lame excuse of yours in the data. Anyway you cut it,he's a loser. His top picks loses the least. His second pick loses twice as much. If we use his top 3 picks in an exacta box it loses about 19%. What else you got? A loser is a loser.

[Light]

You don't get to come on here and dictate terms to me after you insult another member of this board

You call the truth, insulting? Then go live in fantasy. The facts are there. I pasted them in an uploaded Excel sheet. Refute them with facts showing something to the contrary.Go ahead. You got nothing but an opinion. Opinions are not facts.

You are dodging, big time

No,you're dodging paying me. I told you I would if you pay. You think I'm going to take a financial loss in my business to spend time handicapping 500 races to please your ego? Would you do that if the tables were turned?

[SansuiSC]

What else you got?

Stacks of cash and a pile of W2G's :lol:

[jonnielu]

How embarrassing for you to post this, because I'm sure you're dead serious.

Your tips for beginners are both losers.

Have you got some evidence?

jdl

[Cratos]

What is this thread about? After reading each post within the thread I am confused about the subject matter because of the inconsistency in discourse.

I personally have never met Andy, but corresponded with him when he was a member of the old DRF forum and found him to be intelligent and knowledgeable about the handicapping of racehorses.

Also I commended him on this forum at the beginning of this year’s Saratoga meet for the work and effort that he was putting in to publish his daily picks.

Again, what is this thread about?

[Light]

PA

It takes me around 3 hours to properly go through a race card. You want me to handicap 500 races.With an average 9 race card,that's 500/9=55 race cards. 55*3 hours per card is 165 hours. I make $60 an hour in my line of work. That would equal $9900. Maybe this will make you understand why asking you to pay me for picks that I would not normally handicap is not a cop out but a practical matter. Handicapping is work,at least for me. If I normally handicap races,I wouldn't be asking for compensation. That's why I'm telling you to have some patience and wait till I do play the NY circuit.

[ezrabrooks]

Light... Is your disdain for this guy based on his picks, or the fact that some go ga ga when he has a long shot winner? I really think it is the latter.

Ez

[ArlJim78]

Have you got some evidence?

jdl
where was your evidence? What kind of evidence can you offer to show that betting a sharp looking horse who warms up without a pony to place is good advice? It's ridiculous on its face.

the top 4 ML horses is easier to disprove, if you play them to win you would have hit 80% winners for a whopping .8 ROI over the past 2 years.
that should really get these new people to line up every day to get in.

[Tom]

Again, what is this thread about?

About 5 pages too long! :lol:

[rastajenk]

That seems like a good note to end it on.

[jonnielu]

where was your evidence? What kind of evidence can you offer to show that betting a sharp looking horse who warms up without a pony to place is good advice? It's ridiculous on its face.

the top 4 ML horses is easier to disprove, if you play them to win you would have hit 80% winners for a whopping .8 ROI over the past 2 years.
that should really get these new people to line up every day to get in.

In other words, if it isn't handicapping according to the book, you can't even look at it. While the book handicappers are 97% losers.

How about taking those 4 horses that win 80%, and betting one when it shows an appreciable edge on the others? Could you hit 20% doing that? Hey, knock the fav off, and you just have to pick the winner from 3 - 50% of the time.

And those percentages are as old as the hills, while it is believed that "form" is all over the place like a drunken sailor, and still the re-handicappers can't put them to use, because they are looking for good "form".

You just don't want to know what little value re-handicapping the race is.

jdl

[jonnielu]

That seems like a good note to end it on.

Yeah, hell.... wouldn't want a discussion to break out just when you run out of material.

jdl

[Grits]

About 5 pages too long! :lol:

The last thread on this was closed, FINALLY, at 10 pages long with 142 posts. Here it is, four weeks later, same thing. ANOTHER thread started, same players. Same claims.

Light, you asked the question towards the beginning of this thread:

"What would I get out of kicking TLG's ass in a handicapping match?"

In a word, some RESPECT for openers. Because you've made this one of the major concerns of your life, until you stopping bitching, reminding others of your past triumphs, and attempting to suit your own schedule, it ain't likely that it'll be forthcoming.

500 races is extensive as far as time involved. Back it down to one month, four weeks only--beginning Saturday, October 3rd, close to 200 races thereabouts. The entire month of October. Bigger fields and three courses at Belmont. What's so difficult about it? Forget Big A and the Inner. Who cares, smaller fields and chalk, all winter long--no real stretch in one's skill there.

These are some direct questions, Light, but you brought up the point of your time problem. What are your evening constraints? Exactly what do you do each evening to get ready for the next day's work?

(A) Do you schedule repairs at night; open 24 hours?

(B) Do your men work overtime at night?

(C) Do you order parts at night?

(D) Do you work on payroll at night?

(E) Lay your clothes out for tomorrow?

I'm serious, Light. I'm for real here, this deal's gone on way too long. I've never seen anything to beat it.:faint:

PA put this to you as fairly as possible, and you and others are still railing, but more than that, YOU'RE BACKING UP. And, had I made this much of a fuss over someone--as you have this; no, ABSOLUTELY NO amount of my time or my money would allow me to back up. Not a chance. I don't care if the challenge took 30 days or 90+.

As far as getting paid, hell Light, at $60 an hour, you could've funded your retirement with time spent on posts alone. LOLOL

[Java Gold@TFT]

Here's one I could live with:

Jonnie has already said that he is handicapping the KY circuit every day. Light hasn't admitted what circuit he is handicapping but it is obvious that he does at least one card every day and doesn't want to waste his time in NY which he doesn't feel he has an advantage at.

So, for the same race period the rules stay the same as posted by PA. Picks posted for 1,2,3 before scratches and other changes for every race for the meet they are handicapping during that period. TLG gets his NYRA picks, Jonnie gets his KY picks and Light tries to pull another excuse out of his.....

Sure, they won't be the exact same horses but even Light and Jonnie have admitted backhandedly that they would be at a disadvantage doing NYRA. Let them pick their circuit and just be consistent with the rest of the rules.

[nativenova]

This thread has gotten to the point where it would be like criticizing a weatherman for his prediction on the weather and hell they get paid for it and how often are they right?

[rastajenk]

jdl says: "Primarily, there is one consistency of horse racing that can attract new fans. The top 4 ML odds horses will win roughly 70% of the races, virtually on any given day."

Okay.

How did those top four ML odds horses get to be top four? Is it not by someone employing somewhat traditional handicapping techniques that you so despise?

Anybody else see the illogic of using a morning line as a starting point for hooking newbies, and then telling them that the methods employed to create a line are virtually useless?

[castaway01]

Yeah, hell.... wouldn't want a discussion to break out just when you run out of material.

jdl

I deleted what I wrote here because I think you have already dug your own grave as far as selling your product or yourself, so I shouldn't be as vicious as I was.

[Steve 'StatMan']

Here's one I could live with:

Jonnie has already said that he is handicapping the KY circuit every day. Light hasn't admitted what circuit he is handicapping but it is obvious that he does at least one card every day and doesn't want to waste his time in NY which he doesn't feel he has an advantage at.

So, for the same race period the rules stay the same as posted by PA. Picks posted for 1,2,3 before scratches and other changes for every race for the meet they are handicapping during that period. TLG gets his NYRA picks, Jonnie gets his KY picks and Light tries to pull another excuse out of his.....

Sure, they won't be the exact same horses but even Light and Jonnie have admitted backhandedly that they would be at a disadvantage doing NYRA. Let them pick their circuit and just be consistent with the rest of the rules.

With the field sizes being much different, etc. it wouldn't be close to a realistic comparison.

Light would have been far better off backing off of his public expression of his complaints and deep-seated issues with Andy a long ago, and Jonnie would be far better off he would stop using this as another opportunity to promote himself and his methods, but those horses left the gate, around 2 turns and nearly in the home stretch now.

[Jay Trotter]

Looks like Java has hit the nail on the head here! Should be no excuses from the two knuckleheads now!

Here's one I could live with:

Jonnie has already said that he is handicapping the KY circuit every day. Light hasn't admitted what circuit he is handicapping but it is obvious that he does at least one card every day and doesn't want to waste his time in NY which he doesn't feel he has an advantage at.

So, for the same race period the rules stay the same as posted by PA. Picks posted for 1,2,3 before scratches and other changes for every race for the meet they are handicapping during that period. TLG gets his NYRA picks, Jonnie gets his KY picks and Light tries to pull another excuse out of his.....

Sure, they won't be the exact same horses but even Light and Jonnie have admitted backhandedly that they would be at a disadvantage doing NYRA. Let them pick their circuit and just be consistent with the rest of the rules.

[Tom]

You just don't want to know what little value re-handicapping the race is.

jdl

And you have no clue what other handicappers do or how they win. You make gross assumptions, never a fact to back them up. I will tell you this, I know a few good handicappers that consistently beat this game, and looking at horses NEVER enters into their decisions. They see more than enough horses' asses in the stands, they don't have to go to the paddock. :D

[andymays]

Since this will never end how about taking it in a slightly different direction?

I am not familiar with the handicapping abilities of Light, TLG, or jonnielu so I couldn't make an honest futures line. I can make one based upon what I've read and what I think the line might be. No disrespect to anyone, and the line is meant to reflect what I think the odds would be based on comments made by other posters.

TLG 4-5

Light 6-5

jonnielu 5-1



At those prices I would probably take a pass on a wager.

[Imriledup]

I find it kind of odd that there is a thread about a poster on PA who has thousands of posts and this thread has 8 pages about him and he doesn't have one reply or reponse in the entire 8 pages?

[newtothegame]

Since this will never end how about taking it in a slightly different direction?

I am not familiar with the handicapping abilities of Light, TLG, or jonnielu so I couldn't make an honest futures line. I can make one based upon what I've read and what I think the line might be. No disrespect to anyone, and the line is meant to reflect what I think the odds would be based on comments made by other posters.

TLG 4-5

Light 6-5

jonnielu 5-1



At those prices I would probably take a pass on a wager.

is there wps betting lol...
then again, one of these would break down and not finish knowing my luck lol:lol:

[OTM Al]

I find it kind of odd that there is a thread about a poster on PA who has thousands of posts and this thread has 8 pages about him and he doesn't have one reply or reponse in the entire 8 pages?

Why should he? He didn't start this bufoonery. This thread so needs to go.

[Light]

Light... Is your disdain for this guy based on his picks, or the fact that some go ga ga when he has a long shot winner? I really think it is the latter.

Ez

Correct.

[cj]

Correct.

That is sad.

[rastajenk]

You'd think a guy that can make $60/hour might be less interested in something like that.

[Imriledup]

Why should he? He didn't start this bufoonery. This thread so needs to go.

I dont know, if someone started a tread about me, i might want to respond.

[InsideThePylons-MW]

This is hilarious.

It's like arguing who would be a better player in the NBA........
Marv Albert or Bob Costas

[Light]

Light, you asked the question towards the beginning of this thread:

"What would I get out of kicking TLG's ass in a handicapping match?"

In a word, some RESPECT for openers.

I doubt it. I've proved myself over and over on this board and PA belittles them calling them "too short lived". Yeah I'd like to see him or TLG do 4 four month contests and make a profit in each one. Oh wait. PA used to play the pk4 contest and did so poorly he doesn't play anymore,but has the nerve to belittle my success where he had none. Go figure.


Forget Big A and the Inner. Who cares, smaller fields and chalk, all winter long--no real stretch in one's skill there.

Are you inferring because I can make a profit at the big A,it doesn't take skill? Hey you can call me a crapola handicapper,I dont care,but get your facts straight on the Big A. That track pays very well.

These are some direct questions, Light, but you brought up the point of your time problem. What are your evening constraints?

I prefer to rest after a hard days work,not crunch numbers.

[cj]

I dont know, if someone started a tread about me, i might want to respond.

Why would someone start a thread about you?

[Light]

Here's one I could live with:

Light hasn't admitted what circuit he is handicapping but it is obvious that he does at least one card every day

I dont know what gave you that idea,but I dont. I dont have time or energy on the weekdays to do my 3 hour handicapping.


Gold@TFT]...but[/email] even Light and Jonnie have admitted backhandedly that they would be at a disadvantage doing NYRA.

The Big A is a Nyra track. It is the track I have offered to challenge TLG on. I dont see what difference it would make if I did the challenge now or 2 months from now to PA or others here. But as I've mentioned, it would be an unecessary financial and time consuming burden on myself to do it now. Somehow that doesn't seem to be registering.

[Imriledup]

Why would someone start a thread about you?

Hypothetically speaking.

[Light]

That is sad.

I dont know how you are taking it but there is nothing sad about it. I'm not jealous if that's what you're thinking.I dont want attention or fans.

On the other hand I should just let all those idol worshipers and TLG just have at it with their delusions of grandeur. Is their any real difference between those people who fool themselves about making money at the races like these TLG followers and those in Gamblers Anonymous?

In case you are unaware,this is what system sellers do. They show you sporadic wins with their system to get you to buy their product. Its only later that you see the overall ROI go to hell. I suspect,eventually TLG followers will see the fruitlessness of following a public handicapper who can sell them his picks,metaphorically speaking, but cannot turn a profit. And that is the sad part.

[Imriledup]

I dont know how you are taking it but there is nothing sad about it. I'm not jealous if that's what you're thinking.I dont want attention or fans.

On the other hand I should just let all those idol worshipers and TLG just have at it with their delusions of grandeur. Is their any real difference between those people who fool themselves about making money at the races like these TLG followers and those in Gamblers Anonymous?

In case you are unaware,this is what system sellers do. They show you sporadic wins with their system to get you to buy their product. Its only later that you see the overall ROI go to hell. I suspect,eventually TLG followers will see the fruitlessness of following a public handicapper who can sell them his picks,metaphorically speaking, but cannot turn a profit. And that is the sad part.


People who are lifetime winners dont give their picks away for free.

[46zilzal]

One of the biggest mistakes that ANY public handicappers persist in doing is simply playing every race as it the opportunities were the same. Many years back, at a Saturday afternoon handicapping seminar where I was pitted against the local DRF columnist, I skipped three races as simply unplayable. This sent horror throughout the fan base. "You have to have a pick?" was the uniform response.

I answered that it would be JUST AS LOGICAL, in these three races with multiple First timers, to throw a dart.

Knowing when NOT to bet, is almost as important as knowing when it is time to open the wallet.

I did give them the Preakness winner so it was a nice trade off.

[jonnielu]

jdl says: "Primarily, there is one consistency of horse racing that can attract new fans. The top 4 ML odds horses will win roughly 70% of the races, virtually on any given day."

Okay.

How did those top four ML odds horses get to be top four? Is it not by someone employing somewhat traditional handicapping techniques that you so despise?


Amazing. Yes, my point being that the race comes to you already handicapped, and about as well as it can be. I never said that I despise the traditional methods of handicapping, I've consistently said that it is a good start. Why should you re-do it?

Especially when it comes to you with such a high degree of consistency and accuracy? Pick the right one of 4, 3 times a day, and you are the greatest analyst on the block. Why re-do it? The guy that did it in the first place got stuck on the favorite, and that horse is a 75% ML loser.

All you have to do is stand in one spot and wait for opportunity to arrive. The 6-1 4th choice is driven to 8-1 from the opening flash, as the favorite is overbet from the getgo. 6 MTP it is at 4-1, and you noticed that the horse looked sharp in the post parade with Jose Winsumal on his back.

Now look in the racing form at this horses record. Is it the kind of record that the public loves to bet on? No? Bet Yes? pass



Anybody else see the illogic of using a morning line as a starting point for hooking newbies, and then telling them that the methods employed to create a line are virtually useless?

I never said that the methods employed are useless, I said it is very difficult for a past performance handicapper to see what he/she has been trained to recognize as negative, as positive. What is useless is comparing horses on a growing list of variables that don't have much impact at all.

jdl

[Bobzilla]

I think there are probably many on this board who have the ability to pick live horses at a price successfully. In some cases there might be a sense of envy amonst this group when they see another being recognized for their successes, or maybe they are turned off by what they think is an attempt by some to ingratiate themselves to someone seen as a celebrity. I think it needs to be remembered, however, that there is a world of difference between successfully playing a longshot from the comfort of anonymity and while doing so on the public stage where there is a little more at stake. Often times public handicappers will announce their live longshot as a third pick and not as their primary play, usually not the one that will compel them to head to the windows while announcing to their audience that they will be doing just that. If one isolated the times that Andy announced that he was heading for the windows to play a horse at a big price and threw out the other races he was obligated to discuss I would be surprised if one didn't note an impressive ROI. Nobody can have a strong opinion on every race. I thought that was self-evident.

I've been a regular patron of NY Racing for at least a few decades. When it comes to setting the stage for an upcoming race, making the race interesting, discussing possible value plays with hidden form and considering some of the possible scenarios that might take place, I think the current team of Andy, Eric and Jason are phenomenal, and that's simply an observation, not an abuse of superlatives. I may not always agree but when I don't I sure go back and take a second look.

[banacek]

TLG 4-5

Light 6-5

jonnielu 5-1

At those prices I would probably take a pass on a wager.


You might want to wait for the post parade...if Jonni looks sharp and warms up without a lead pony, bet him to place.

[jonnielu]

Here's one I could live with:

Sure, they won't be the exact same horses but even Light and Jonnie have admitted backhandedly that they would be at a disadvantage doing NYRA. Let them pick their circuit and just be consistent with the rest of the rules.

I'd like to see a copy of that. I can follow NY just as well as any other. I don't like NY because it is not that competitive except for Saratoga.

jdl

[Fastracehorse]

First off, we all know this thread is ridiculous..........

Brad Thomas is easily the best on-track handicapper. :)

Anyway, following these TLG threads, I feel like the disagreement is a question of semantics in some regard. What makes a good public handicapper? Light, and his ilk, think Andy sucks because he doesn't show a flat-bet profit on all of his picks, on every race, which is of course ridiculous. But that's how he's judging him, which makes his premise faulty. Andy's supporters, on the other hand, conveniently overlook long losing streaks when a $117 exacta comes in. I get Light's point...Andy can go weeks without a winner, I guess, and then when a pick wins we get a new thread.

However, IMO, Light doesn't get that Andy goes beyond simply picking a horse because "he was 2nd at this level last time", and he apparently tries to teach the nuances of the game, maybe not to us, but to newcomers. THAT'S what makes him better than average. If he happens to have a decent ROI (it's not going to be profitable, picking every race), so much the better.


Thanx

fffastt

[RXB]

If one isolated the times that Andy announced that he was heading for the windows to play a horse at a big price and threw out the other races he was obligated to discuss I would be surprised if one didn't note an impressive ROI. Nobody can have a strong opinion on every race. I thought that was self-evident.

:ThmbUp:

[ArlJim78]

In other words, if it isn't handicapping according to the book, you can't even look at it.
There is a reason nobody put in their books what you proposed, because it's not good advice.
I guess I don't care whether an angle is in a book or not, as long as it makes money. You're the one who touted betting the top 4 morning line horses as "one consistency of horse racing that can attract new fans". I fail to see how that angle is going to be a big draw especially since as I have shown it loses 20 cents on the dollar.


How about taking those 4 horses that win 80%, and betting one when it shows an appreciable edge on the others? Could you hit 20% doing that?
It all depends on your ability to determine the edge. When one of these newcomers to the sports asks you to define how to determine the particular situations when one horse has an appreciable edge over the others, what is your answer going to be? Be specific.


And those percentages are as old as the hills, while it is believed that "form" is all over the place like a drunken sailor, and still the re-handicappers can't put them to use, because they are looking for good "form".

You just don't want to know what little value re-handicapping the race is.

jdl
Speaking of form all over the place like a drunken sailor, thats how I feel trying to understand what you are getting at.
Who are the re-handicappers, and why don't I want to know how little value there is in it?

you make accusations about others, but then so far you don't back it up. Of course if you can find an edge or choose the correct horse 50% of the time you can make something, but that is the hard part and you haven't shown how to do that.

[jonnielu]

You might want to wait for the post parade...if Jonni looks sharp and warms up without a lead pony, bet him to place.

You might want to check the average payout for the winner too.

jdl

[Fastracehorse]

About 5 pages too long! :lol:

I think it's not long enough.

fffastt

[jonnielu]

There is a reason nobody put in their books what you proposed, because it's not good advice.
I guess I don't care whether an angle is in a book or not, as long as it makes money. You're the one who touted betting the top 4 morning line horses as "one consistency of horse racing that can attract new fans". I fail to see how that angle is going to be a big draw especially since as I have shown it loses 20 cents on the dollar.


It all depends on your ability to determine the edge. When one of these newcomers to the sports asks you to define how to determine the particular situations when one horse has an appreciable edge over the others, what is your answer going to be? Be specific.


Speaking of form all over the place like a drunken sailor, thats how I feel trying to understand what you are getting at.
Who are the re-handicappers, and why don't I want to know how little value there is in it?

you make accusations about others, but then so far you don't back it up. Of course if you can find an edge or choose the correct horse 50% of the time you can make something, but that is the hard part and you haven't shown how to do that.

For myself, I use the horses ability to run to determine any appreciable edge.

[Fastracehorse]

One of the biggest mistakes that ANY public handicappers persist in doing is simply playing every race as it the opportunities were the same. Many years back, at a Saturday afternoon handicapping seminar where I was pitted against the local DRF columnist, I skipped three races as simply unplayable. This sent horror throughout the fan base. "You have to have a pick?" was the uniform response.

I answered that it would be JUST AS LOGICAL, in these three races with multiple First timers, to throw a dart.

Knowing when NOT to bet, is almost as important as knowing when it is time to open the wallet.

I did give them the Preakness winner so it was a nice trade off.

Of course it is difficult to have some good days that way. But the skill of a player is delineated by the abilty to pick nice priced winners frequently. People take note.

fffastt

[Steve 'StatMan']

One of the points is, most of us think Andy knows what he's doing and is good at it. Light, who hopefully now keeps his barf bag handy when Andy gets compliements, claims that Andy is not that good, and that he himself is good at this. Most of us keep pointing out, however, that we have no proof that, under the exact same conditions that Light judged Andy on, we do not know that Light would do any better. But Light seems to live to critize Andy, who really isn't interested in arguing nor worried about who is better. We know Light is bitter. But we don't know, under the EXACT same circumstances (24+ hours in advance selections and held to only a top pick) he is any better, and therefore, why does he keep complaining.

Actually, I don't care if Light is better or not. But the rock throwing is quite unbecoming if he isn't willing to compare himself in a similar manner, given all the rocks he's thrown, and his clear interest and intent in doing so.

[Indulto]

I dont know, if someone started a tread about me, i might want to respond.Why would someone start a thread about you?:lol:Why would someone start a thread about you?
Hypothetically speaking.People who are lifetime winners dont give their picks away for free.And you know this how?

Oh I know. Hypothetically speaking. :jump:

[Imriledup]

I think the whole 'controversy' surrounding this thread is rooted in the fact that there are a lot of really strong handicappers who are anonymous in our society. Anonymous on these message boards. These anonymous people, who also have large ego's and feel they are great, get a little perturbed when they see that a public figure is getting 'a lotta love' and is portrayed as a great handicapper and a long run winning bettor.

Most people who are anonymous feel that people who have to go public with their picks and information are not as good as them because, well, why give it away for free if you are really great, why not just hammer the windows yourself and get better prices on the stuff you love?

It is quite possible that there are much better players than the person who is the subject of this thread that prefer to remain anonymous. Those people know they are bettor than any public prognosticator and don't want to be reading about how great someone is when they know they're better, they know they have a larger betting handle per year and they know they are professional bettors who win money and support themselves on one source of income and aren't collecting a check from anyone to be some sort of 'witty' commentator.

[RXB]

I did give them the Preakness winner so it was a nice trade off.

Bid paid $2.20 that day, didn't he? :p

[Steve 'StatMan']

Why do selectors give away picks? They're paid enough to do it. If the selector didn't want to do it, the managers of the tracks, newpapers, tip sheets and websites will find someone else to do it and pay that someone else to do it.

No, they sure as hell won't make $60 and hour either, so no need to be jealous of a public handicapper over that.

[Grits]

No, Light, I'm not inferring you have a lack of skill, but then again, I'm not lauding your skill either. And I stated, exactly why, I'm not. As I noted, you're backing up, something truly loathesome in anyone when confronted, after having chosen to slander someone while they remain unknown to all.

If I were to estimate your lacking in any particular area, I'd probably land on integrity at this point.

This has been SO WRONG from the start on every level. Its been the most outward display of cowardice I've ever witnessed online. You've had your crusade, your platform for weeks and weeks. Remaining untouched, it should have been stopped long ago. This has been pathetic.

[Light]

Light, who hopefully now keeps his barf bag handy when Andy gets compliements, claims that Andy is not that good

Actually I'm running out of barf bags.

We know Light is bitter.

You were right about the barfing but I have nothing to be bitter about.

Actually, I don't care if Light is better or not.

Me neither. That's never been my interest or point. I simply refuted that TLG is a good handicapper with stats that say otherwise. For that I got flack and irrelevant challenges which forced me to defend my credentials. Otherwise I have no interest in proving how good or bad a handicapper I am,because this isn't about me.

If people here were mature,they would refute the stats I presented with their own data instead of challenging me to a duel. That's what they do in grade school,not college.

[Indulto]

It never fails to amaze me when people want to shut down a thread they don't like. Why not just ignore the thread instead. Light is being the one being bashed here, not tlg who is clever enough to let others do his work for him. (Which is only fair since apparently many others are letting him do their work for them.;))

In the original thread, and now this one, Light is only doing what tlg used to do here before he got this NYRA gig -- hold people accountble. I agree with those who feel that being forced to select every race isn’t reality, but maybe NYRA should get feedback from its customers as to which races they really want help with.

In the original thread, tlg responded to my conjecture that he might be keeping track of P3 and P4s his selections hit by saying that wasn’t what they were trying to accomplish.

IMO tracking an $81 P4 play using the top 3 daily (with the feature race as part of the sequence) would be interesting for most people. He could then twitter his real P4 play at 10 MTP. I bet he’d get a tremendous following, and deservedly so. A lot of NYRA customers would also learn more about the game.

[cj]

One of the biggest mistakes that ANY public handicappers persist in doing is simply playing every race as it the opportunities were the same. Many years back, at a Saturday afternoon handicapping seminar where I was pitted against the local DRF columnist, I skipped three races as simply unplayable. This sent horror throughout the fan base. "You have to have a pick?" was the uniform response.

I answered that it would be JUST AS LOGICAL, in these three races with multiple First timers, to throw a dart.

Knowing when NOT to bet, is almost as important as knowing when it is time to open the wallet.

I did give them the Preakness winner so it was a nice trade off.

Andy clearly does not talk about all races as if they are all the same, or all equally appealing to the bettor. So, I have no idea what the point of this post was.

Oh, other than to redboard an unknown Preakness winner. Nice job. I was really hoping you would find a way to mention your Sovereign Award vote as well.

Bid paid $2.20 that day, didn't he? :p

Nicely done!

[46zilzal]

"Me and My Shadow"....Never miss an opportunity for a little dig

[Grits]

It never fails to amaze me when people want to shut down a thread they don't like. Why not just ignore the thread instead. Light is being the one being bashed here, not tlg who is clever enough to let others do his work for him. (Which is only fair since apparently many others are letting him do their work for them.;))

Insulto, what never fails to amaze me more, is how often you use cutesy smiley faces ;) :jump: ;) when you're, in effect, impaling a board member, on yet another wrought iron fence. I admit, I miss things, now and then, but you're good with these, your message creeps through, smilies and all.

I don't work for anyone. So, let's forget that.:)

For the record, I've briefly encountered TLG twice; unfortunately, it didn't go well either time. But, that's neither here nor there, regardless, I have sense enough to know what his job is. And that the guy's not self employed. When I see what's transpired here in the last eight weeks, unchecked, coming from someone who remains unknown, but contends he's better at it--BOTTOMLINE--its difficult for anyone to ignore, including myself.

Maybe it can be pointed out to me, or maybe I'm the only one--who could benefit from an explanation of how this eight week screed has possibly been beneficial to anyone's handicapping? Too, and more importantly, how's it been beneficial to TLG or Light? More lemmings scurrying to the windows behind one or the other? (I'd be surprised.) :eek: Ooops, there's another one of those little suckers.

Was this a balanced disagreement . . . . nah, let's don't even go there.

Forgive my smilies and play on your name, its all in fun, Insulto. I know you'll understand.

Kiss :kiss: Kiss

[46zilzal]

Indulto was a very very fast horse. I saw him run many times at Hollywood. The one that sticks out however was in a match race loss to a Q-horse at a quarter mile. Was closing at the wire but it was all over out of the gate.

Only proved what we all already knew: quarter horses are quicker.

[PaceAdvantage]

PA used to play the pk4 contest and did so poorly he doesn't play anymore,but has the nerve to belittle my success where he had none.Obviously, not only are you frightened to put up or shut up, you're delusional as well. I never "belittled your success."

What I did was state the terms I believe would provide a fair and proper distribution of outcomes...500 races....tracking top pick to win.

As CJ already pointed out, the Pick4 contest does NOT meet these requirements.

If you see that as belittling, then you are in serious trouble.

But thanks for being an asshole about it. I'll keep that in mind as well.

[andymays]

Indulto was a very very fast horse. I saw him run many times at Hollywood. The one that sticks out however was in a match race loss to a Q-horse at a quarter mile. Was closing at the wire but it was all over out of the gate.

Only proved what we all already knew: quarter horses are quicker.


YouTube - 1991 Match Race: Throughbred and Quarter Horse

Griswold and Valiant Pete in their epic Q vs. Thoroughbred showdown


http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NMEPg0Rqp8I&feature=related

[The Hawk]

Thanx

fffastt

He's the in-house handicapper at Monmouth. Does a great job, IMO the best in the country at giving out high-priced winners. He doesn't post here, so no one posts threads every time he picks a longshot winner, and no one then says he sucks because he doesn't show a profit picking every race.

[PaceAdvantage]

I simply refuted that TLG is a good handicapper with stats that say otherwise.And herein lies your giant flaw. Well, more than one flaw in fact.

Flaw #1: You are basing your entire opinion of Andy's handicapping ability on one very unique 36-day meeting. Case closed...end of story.

Flaw #2: You are of the opinion that losing 7% when tracking every single top pick in every single race, posted before scratches, track condition, changes and ODDS are known, IS A BAD PERFORMANCE, when 99% of the people on this board would tell you otherwise.

These are simple concepts to grasp...which leads me to wonder if ulterior motives are at play in this case.

[SansuiSC]

I think there are probably many on this board who have the ability to pick live horses at a price successfully. In some cases there might be a sense of envy amonst this group when they see another being recognized for their successes, or maybe they are turned off by what they think is an attempt by some to ingratiate themselves to someone seen as a celebrity. I think it needs to be remembered, however, that there is a world of difference between successfully playing a longshot from the comfort of anonymity and while doing so on the public stage where there is a little more at stake. Often times public handicappers will announce their live longshot as a third pick and not as their primary play, usually not the one that will compel them to head to the windows while announcing to their audience that they will be doing just that. If one isolated the times that Andy announced that he was heading for the windows to play a horse at a big price and threw out the other races he was obligated to discuss I would be surprised if one didn't note an impressive ROI. Nobody can have a strong opinion on every race. I thought that was self-evident.

I've been a regular patron of NY Racing for at least a few decades. When it comes to setting the stage for an upcoming race, making the race interesting, discussing possible value plays with hidden form and considering some of the possible scenarios that might take place, I think the current team of Andy, Eric and Jason are phenomenal, and that's simply an observation, not an abuse of superlatives. I may not always agree but when I don't I sure go back and take a second look.


Exactly. It's quite apparent that light and anyone else who does not respect Andy specifically and Jason & Eric does not follow the circuit, watch Talking Horses, listen to the pre-race, or follow the tweets. All in combination = A+

Too bad for him that he cant listen and find the scores or use what Andy and crew say. Insightful analysis and superb handicapping.

Sorry but you can't hang your cap on a handicapping contest. I want real money and wagers.

Andy provides that and 99% of everyone else agrees.

I'm sure tlg is just reading the thread and laughing his ass off as certain people make fools of themselves.

SSC

[chickenhead]

These are simple concepts to grasp...which leads me to wonder if ulterior motives are at play in this case.

I seem to remember a long time ago, a guy came on here in the selections forums and posted a couple hundred plays and posted a straight +10 or 12% ROI...and someone showed up there and took a big dump right in the middle of that thread..just couldn't stand people telling him good job..who could that have been?

http://img24.imageshack.us/img24/1196/hatorade1.jpg

[Imriledup]

I looked in the selections section of this website and didn't see any selections from the person this thread is dedicated to.

I'd love to get in on this big cash cow, where are the winning picks?

[BombsAway Bob]

I looked in the selections section of this website and didn't see any selections from the person this thread is dedicated to.

I'd love to get in on this big cash cow, where are the winning picks?
http://www.nyra.com/belmont/stories/TalkingHorses.shtml ...

[Quagmire]

I simply refuted that TLG is a good handicapper with stats that say otherwise. For that I got flack and irrelevant challenges which forced me to defend my credentials. Otherwise I have no interest in proving how good or bad a handicapper I am,because this isn't about me.

If people here were mature,they would refute the stats I presented with their own data instead of challenging me to a duel. That's what they do in grade school,not college.

I believe you have won more bobble head dolls than TLG. Thats gotta count for something. :D

[cj]

I believe you have won more bobble head dolls than TLG. Thats gotta count for something. :D

Won't the real kicker be when he wins an Andy Serling bobble head?

[sly fox]

This is hilarious.

It's like arguing who would be a better player in the NBA........
Marv Albert or Bob Costas


You nailed it!..........lol

[Light]

And herein lies your giant flaw. Well, more than one flaw in fact.

Flaw #1: You are basing your entire opinion of Andy's handicapping ability on one very unique 36-day meeting. Case closed...end of story.

Finally someone addressing the point. The facts have been presented your honor and all the defense has come up with so far is insults and conjecture. You guys would make lousy lawyers.

Yes you have a point there about Saratoga.It is a tough meet. But that doesn't automatically mean he can turn a profit at another meet. It remains to be seen.

Flaw #2: You are of the opinion that losing 7% when tracking every single top pick in every single race, posted before scratches, track condition, changes and ODDS are known, IS A BAD PERFORMANCE, when 99% of the people on this board would tell you otherwise.

Why dont you watch the show one day before embarrassing yourself further. Donovan always introduces the races with the scratches,then the analysis begins.

These are simple concepts to grasp...which leads me to wonder if ulterior motives are at play in this case.

I have no motive but to present a fact about TLG's ROI. To tell you the truth I have no bias about this. I was ready to hop on the bandwagon and sing his praises if all that people said about his handicapping turned out to be true in my data sheet. It simply isn't.

[cj]

As I've pointed out before, he had a positive ROI for the entire inner dirt meeting.

[Imriledup]

http://www.nyra.com/belmont/stories/TalkingHorses.shtml ...


No analysis? how do you know which ones the selector likes best? Not all 9 races are created equal, some must be better picks than others.

[PaceAdvantage]

Why dont you watch the show one day before embarrassing yourself further. Donovan always introduces the races with the scratches,then the analysis begins.So you're saying the picks you used to track Andy are picks that have been ALTERED based on late scratches? As in, a big time speed horse scratches, the entire pace picture is changed, and Andy gets to change all of his selections based on this new information?

Or are you saying Andy's picks on the website are 1-2-4, the 1 scratches, and his picks are now 2-4-3? Because if that's what you mean, I don't think I'm the one who should feel embarrassed.

[Steve 'StatMan']

I'm reminded of a joke:

A researcher is in his lab, with a frog at his table. He says to the frog, "Jump frog! Jump!" The frog nearly jumps off the table. Researcher duly notes "Initial test. Upon command, the frog jumped."

The researcher then takes his scalpel and cuts off the frog's left front leg. The researcher then says to the frog "Jump frog! Jump!" The frog, leaning toward on his 3 remaining legs, takes a noticable jump. The researcher writes in his notes "Upon command, the 3 legged frog jumped."

The researcher then takes his scalpel and cuts off the frog's right front leg. The researcher says to the frog "Jump frog! Jump!" The frog manages to lean back upon his two rear legs, and leaps forward, awkwardly. The researcher notes "Upon command, the 2 legged frog jumped."

The researcher then takes his scalpel and cuts off the frog's left rear leg. The researcher says to the frog "Jump frog! Jump!" The frog awkwardly leans on the last remaining leg, and flops sideways a few inches. The researcher notes "Upon command, the 1 legged frog jumped."

The researcher then takes his scalpel, and cuts off the frog's final leg. The researcher says to the frog "Jump frog! Jump!" The legless frog just sits there bleeding and barely breathing. The resarcher repeats the command "Jump frog! Jump!" The frog just stays there, nearly motionless.

The resarcher writes in his notes "After removing the final leg, the frog no longer jumped upon command. Therefore, removing all of a frog's legs makes frogs deaf."

[Indulto]

Insulto, what never fails to amaze me more, is how often you use cutesy smiley faces ;) :jump: ;) when you're, in effect, impaling a board member, on yet another wrought iron fence. I admit, I miss things, now and then, but you're good with these, your message creeps through, smilies and all.

I don't work for anyone. So, let's forget that.:)

For the record, I've briefly encountered TLG twice; unfortunately, it didn't go well either time. But, that's neither here nor there, regardless, I have sense enough to know what his job is. And that the guy's not self employed. When I see what's transpired here in the last eight weeks, unchecked, coming from someone who remains unknown, but contends he's better at it--BOTTOMLINE--its difficult for anyone to ignore, including myself.

Maybe it can be pointed out to me, or maybe I'm the only one--who could benefit from an explanation of how this eight week screed has possibly been beneficial to anyone's handicapping? Too, and more importantly, how's it been beneficial to TLG or Light? More lemmings scurrying to the windows behind one or the other? (I'd be surprised.) :eek: Ooops, there's another one of those little suckers.

Was this a balanced disagreement . . . . nah, let's don't even go there.

Forgive my smilies and play on your name, its all in fun, Insulto. I know you'll understand.

Kiss :kiss: KissGrits,
What else are smiles for? ;)


With apologies to Udell and Geld

It was just like getting hit
By a Hummer
This broadside I just took from Grits
It makes my psyche bleed
Every day at my keyboard
Impaled on a kiss.

[jonnielu]

And herein lies your giant flaw. Well, more than one flaw in fact.

Flaw #1: You are basing your entire opinion of Andy's handicapping ability on one very unique 36-day meeting. Case closed...end of story.

Flaw #2: You are of the opinion that losing 7% when tracking every single top pick in every single race, posted before scratches, track condition, changes and ODDS are known, IS A BAD PERFORMANCE, when 99% of the people on this board would tell you otherwise.

These are simple concepts to grasp...which leads me to wonder if ulterior motives are at play in this case.

What is so unique about the Saratoga meeting?

jdl

[Tom]

The resarcher writes in his notes "After removing the final leg, the frog no longer jumped upon command. Therefore, removing all of a frog's legs makes frogs deaf."

Huh?

[nobeyerspls]

You know what Jonni...the offer is now open to you.

You post your picks for every race at NYRA on the selections section of this board, and I will track them along with Andy's so we can see how much better you are.

Picks posted before late scratches are announced, just like Andy.

Let me know when you decide to take me up on these terms.

Thanks.

TLG's value to this Forum is that he can attract a lot of attention. And why not? He's evolved from an obscure Andy Beyer wannabe to a highly respected, and rightly so, public handicapper and analyst. I'm not defending his abilty to handicap and wager on the races because I have no data to support a position either way (his all-race, every day picks mean nothing). In the past, we have aired our differences regarding the value of Beyer speed figures. Despite that, we both hold Andy Beyer in high regard as to his knowledge of the sport.
What TLG, Light, and Andy do not have in common is that only one posts selections of all the races on a card well before scratches, surface changes, and track conditions are known. I think that anyone doing that would have to have some masochistic tendencies. I know that I would suck at it big time despite modest success on a continuing basis with real-time/real-money wagering.
If you want a contest among the three, you might have them choose four tracks over two weekends and have each of them select five races to play at each track. Because each are likely to select some tracks and some race categories that the others don't, you would learn what each of them believe about their strengths an weaknesses. There couldn't be any excuses as each would be playing from strength. Start with a $2,500 bankroll with no limits on types of wagering and see how they do. If you would like a 4th player I would be happy to join in the fun.

[jonnielu]

TLG's value to this Forum is that he can attract a lot of attention. And why not? He's evolved from an obscure Andy Beyer wannabe to a highly respected, and rightly so, public handicapper and analyst. I'm not defending his abilty to handicap and wager on the races because I have no data to support a position either way (his all-race, every day picks mean nothing). In the past, we have aired our differences regarding the value of Beyer speed figures. Despite that, we both hold Andy Beyer in high regard as to his knowledge of the sport.
What TLG, Light, and Andy do not have in common is that only one posts selections of all the races on a card well before scratches, surface changes, and track conditions are known. I think that anyone doing that would have to have some masochistic tendencies. I know that I would suck at it big time despite modest success on a continuing basis with real-time/real-money wagering.
If you want a contest among the three, you might have them choose four tracks over two weekends and have each of them select five races to play at each track. Because each are likely to select some tracks and some race categories that the others don't, you would learn what each of them believe about their strengths an weaknesses. There couldn't be any excuses as each would be playing from strength. Start with a $2,500 bankroll with no limits on types of wagering and see how they do. If you would like a 4th player I would be happy to join in the fun.

That might be a good idea, could turn into a real spectacle.

jdl

[jonnielu]

Can someone please tell me why everyone but Andy himself seem to want to see this supposed 'contest'. Is he even interested in something like this?



Exposure, is something that most want to have in controllable quantities.

jdl

[castaway01]

I think the whole 'controversy' surrounding this thread is rooted in the fact that there are a lot of really strong handicappers who are anonymous in our society. Anonymous on these message boards. These anonymous people, who also have large ego's and feel they are great, get a little perturbed when they see that a public figure is getting 'a lotta love' and is portrayed as a great handicapper and a long run winning bettor.

Most people who are anonymous feel that people who have to go public with their picks and information are not as good as them because, well, why give it away for free if you are really great, why not just hammer the windows yourself and get better prices on the stuff you love?

It is quite possible that there are much better players than the person who is the subject of this thread that prefer to remain anonymous. Those people know they are bettor than any public prognosticator and don't want to be reading about how great someone is when they know they're better, they know they have a larger betting handle per year and they know they are professional bettors who win money and support themselves on one source of income and aren't collecting a check from anyone to be some sort of 'witty' commentator.

Except for the fact that you DO have to have a personality, wit, intellect, and knowledge to be a success doing what Andy does, and his critics here have shown they have none of the above.

[castaway01]

It never fails to amaze me when people want to shut down a thread they don't like. Why not just ignore the thread instead. Light is being the one being bashed here, not tlg who is clever enough to let others do his work for him. (Which is only fair since apparently many others are letting him do their work for them.;))

In the original thread, and now this one, Light is only doing what tlg used to do here before he got this NYRA gig -- hold people accountble. I agree with those who feel that being forced to select every race isn’t reality, but maybe NYRA should get feedback from its customers as to which races they really want help with.

In the original thread, tlg responded to my conjecture that he might be keeping track of P3 and P4s his selections hit by saying that wasn’t what they were trying to accomplish.

IMO tracking an $81 P4 play using the top 3 daily (with the feature race as part of the sequence) would be interesting for most people. He could then twitter his real P4 play at 10 MTP. I bet he’d get a tremendous following, and deservedly so. A lot of NYRA customers would also learn more about the game.

No one here uses more words to say less than you do.

[Steve 'StatMan']

Huh?

The no-legged frog no longer jumped on command - must not be able to hear the command.

Unrealisitic test plan, impossible expectation, bad interpretation of results.

[Light]

As I've pointed out before, he had a positive ROI for the entire inner dirt meeting.

Prove it.

[Tom]

The no-legged frog no longer jumped on command - must not be able to hear the command.

Unrealisitic test plan, impossible expectation, bad interpretation of results.


:rolleyes: No, huh, as in "Huh?" What? Did you say something? I can't hear you.



:lol:

[Light]

So you're saying the picks you used to track Andy are picks that have been ALTERED based on late scratches? As in, a big time speed horse scratches, the entire pace picture is changed, and Andy gets to change all of his selections based on this new information?

Its clear you dont watch the show or you wouldn't be asking that question. TLG IS NOT A NEWSPAPER HANDICAPPER,HE IS A WEB BASED HANDICAPPER.THEREFORE HE IS NOT SUBJECT TO MAKING HIS PICKS BEFORE SCRATCHES AND CHANGES TO MEET A NEWSPAPERS PRINTING DEADLINE.THERE IS NO NEED TO TURN IN HIS PICKS EARLY. CAPICHE? What he dicusses on the show are the same as his web picks...All made after scratches and changes.Watch the show once in a while if you think the guy is so great

As you know the nyra scratches and changes are posted around 11.am eastern time. These scratches are the same one everyone uses. His show doesn't come on till around 45 minutes later,therefore Donovan is always saying the so and so is scratched or this race has been taken off the Turf etc.


Or are you saying Andy's picks on the website are 1-2-4, the 1 scratches, and his picks are now 2-4-3? Because if that's what you mean, I don't think I'm the one who should feel embarrassed.

What TLG does not have access to is the same info anyone handicapping a nyra track does not have info to. The few if any very late scratches that happen after the start of the races at any track in the country. Yes in my data sheet I moved his horse up if it was ranked 2nd and the top pick was scratched.But that was a very small percentage.His ROI benefitted many times from that rather than be hurt by it. You just keep making excuse after excuse for the guy.

[Java Gold@TFT]

Its clear you dont watch the show or you wouldn't be asking that question. TLG IS NOT A NEWSPAPER HANDICAPPER,HE IS A WEB BASED HANDICAPPER.THEREFORE HE IS NOT SUBJECT TO MAKING HIS PICKS BEFORE SCRATCHES AND CHANGES TO MEET A NEWSPAPERS PRINTING DEADLINE.THERE IS NO NEED TO TURN IN HIS PICKS EARLY. CAPICHE? What he dicusses on the show are the same as his web picks...All made after scratches and changes.Watch the show once in a while if you think the guy is so great

As you know the nyra scratches and changes are posted around 11.am eastern time. These scratches are the same one everyone uses. His show doesn't come on till around 45 minutes later,therefore Donovan is always saying the so and so is scratched or this race has been taken off the Turf etc.




What TLG does not have access to is the same info anyone handicapping a nyra track does not have info to. The few if any very late scratches that happen after the start of the races at any track in the country. Yes in my data sheet I moved his horse up if it was ranked 2nd and the top pick was scratched.But that was a very small percentage.His ROI benefitted many times from that rather than be hurt by it. You just keep making excuse after excuse for the guy.
You said that you used Andy's picks at Saratoga off the website and not the afternoon recaps before each race. Here's the website where picks are always up before scratches:

http://www.nyra.com/belmont/stories/TalkingHorses.shtml

Notice the disclaimer at the bottom:

Selections are posted prior to scratches being announced.

Time to backtrack on another false statement when the facts stare you in the face. :D

[PaceAdvantage]

Can someone please tell me why everyone but Andy himself seem to want to see this supposed 'contest'. Is he even interested in something like this?

12 pages with not one response from the actual person this thread was 'dedicated' to is strange. i just can't figure out for the life of me what someone like Andy would even have to gain from something like this.

infact, if he does not find it important enough to waste his time responding, why does everyone else feel they have to stick up for him all the time? seems to me it is Andy's 'friends' who seem to not just want to let this die.

imo, Andy is the smartest one of the bunch here. While he has nothing to prove his friends seem hellbent on trying to prove something he doesn't even seem to care about himself(or atleast not enough to even post). He has absolutely nothing to prove to anyone on this or any other forum.It doesn't matter what Andy wants....:lol:

His picks are posted publicly on the NYRA website, so I can use them to track against the two major detractors here, who for one reason or another, have offered up nothing but excuses as to why they can't also post their NYRA picks here at PaceAdvantage. Although if I read Light right, come winter, he seems to be willing to post his top three picks every day for inner-track meeting...but, I'm probably reading him wrong, and there are some preconditions I am currently unaware of...

[PaceAdvantage]

Its clear you dont watch the show or you wouldn't be asking that question. TLG IS NOT A NEWSPAPER HANDICAPPER,HE IS A WEB BASED HANDICAPPER.THEREFORE HE IS NOT SUBJECT TO MAKING HIS PICKS BEFORE SCRATCHES AND CHANGES TO MEET A NEWSPAPERS PRINTING DEADLINE.THERE IS NO NEED TO TURN IN HIS PICKS EARLY. CAPICHE? What he dicusses on the show are the same as his web picks...All made after scratches and changes.Watch the show once in a while if you think the guy is so greatIf you used the selections that were on the website (and watched the show like I did) during Saratoga, you'd know for a fact many if not all of his selections for off-the-turf races (and there were many) were based on the race still being on the TURF.

Unless you're telling me you watched the show and only took the picks from what he said on the show, then your numbers ARE WAY OFF, and his ROI is much more closer to positive than it is -7% or whatever fakakta number you arrived at...

[Steve 'StatMan']

:rolleyes: No, huh, as in "Huh?" What? Did you say something? I can't hear you.



:lol:

:lol:

Jump Tom, Jump! Jump Tom, Jump! Darn, Tom must not have any legs!

:lol:

[Indulto]

No one here uses more words to say less than you do.Thank you -- assuming you actually took the time to read several of my posts before reaching your conclusion. I didn't learn the words "terse" or "succinct" until late in life, having somehow managed to escape the scrutiny of critics such as yourself. After reading a few of your previous contributions, however, I can understand why I never noticed you before or can’t remember if I did.

[PaceAdvantage]

I love the smell of napalm in the morning.

[Steve 'StatMan']

90

[PaceAdvantage]

Thus, to recap:

After all this mindless going back and forth, the two more vocal critics of Andy refuse to take me up on my challenge.

Top three picks, posted before scratches and changes on the biggest circuit in the land. It's not like I'm asking them to handicap bumbum downs, a circuit nobody has ever heard of...

But Light tells me "wait until inner-track," when, by that time, he's probably hoping I forget about this little bruhaha in this thread.

I say, we start now...a little bit of Belmont, a little bit of Aqueduct main, and a little bit of Aqueduct inner...what could be fairer?

500 races. Don't be chicken.

A refusal to take me up on my offer might be interpreted as an admission that you were indeed wrong in your judgements.

[ezrabrooks]

PA...the Don King of Message Boards..

[cj]

He doesn't have the hair. Bob Arum maybe?

[ezrabrooks]

He doesn't have the hair. Bob Arum maybe?

It would take a King type to pull this one off! Although I have no dog in this fight...I do think it would be a fun watch. Brash up and comer vs the crowd favorite.

Ez

[Bruddah]

PA...the Don King of Message Boards..

After the post about having the little guys juveos in his mouth, PA has shown great restraint. Heck, PA never afforded me that kind of break. Then again, my insults were more cerebal in nature. Our new poster has definitely come out swinging for below the belt buckle.

Note to Otis: Now see why I said, I would have to see a few more posts from you. Sorry, but those kind of juevos busting posts will never get an Amen Bruddah. (a very coveted award, by the way) Especially after you apologized to PA. That's kinda like sucker punching him with a tire iron. (In my best Foghorn Leghorn impression... Bring those punches up boy, I say, bring those punches up. :lol:

[Track Collector]

It's not like I'm asking them to handicap bumbum downs, a circuit nobody has ever heard of...

Hey, do not make fun of me.......I LOVE bumbum downs.:cool:

[Light]

Unless you're telling me you watched the show and only took the picks from what he said on the show, then your numbers ARE WAY OFF, and his ROI is much more closer to positive than it is -7% or whatever fakakta number you arrived at...

Of the 346 races I tracked for him @ Saratoga,there were only 31 instances where his top pick was scratched. That would have been a $62 investment. By my moving his 2nd pick into the top pick slot,they returned $72.70. A $10.70 profit. So scratches actually helped his ROI,not hindered it.

[riskman]

Why would someone start a thread about you?

This gets better and better. Getting some good laughs.

[Fastracehorse]

He's the in-house handicapper at Monmouth. Does a great job, IMO the best in the country at giving out high-priced winners. He doesn't post here, so no one posts threads every time he picks a longshot winner, and no one then says he sucks because he doesn't show a profit picking every race.


Is he the guy with the big pink glasses?

fffastt

[Cratos]

And I thought between the end of the Spa meet and the BC races, things on the PA Forum would be dull.

I couldn’t have been more wrong, because this is a classic wild west shoot-out with all of the “bells and whistles.”

[Steve 'StatMan']

Just think what would happen if people started frequently praising the TVG personalities! :eek: :lol:

[Quagmire]

Just think what would happen if people started frequently praising the TVG personalities! :eek: :lol:


Haha...what if TVG hired...never mind :D

[Indulto]

I love the smell of napalm in the morning.With apologies to Chip Taylor:

There'll be no tracking of tlg’s picks
Not if Light has to depart
And there's no need for us to stick
around until the winter meet starts.
I see no need to take threads down
We’re old enough to press Ignore

Just smell the napalm in the morning, Angel
Just watch Light lose more credibility, Baby
Just call tlg the winner of free publicity, Felicity
Then slowly turn away
We won’t beg Light to play fairly

Maybe tlg’s glamor will start to ebb
And it won't matter anyhow.
If morning's napalm did its job,
Well, it was what Light wanted now.
The self-styled victims of this fight,
Weren’t forced to look upon the sight.

Just smell the napalm in the morning, Angel
Just watch tlg bask in more acclaim, baby
Just call Light the loser by toxicity, Felicity
Then slowly turn away
They’ll fight another day
Through the years baby baby baby

Just smell the napalm in the morning Angel
Just waste more time until you leave here, baby.


Merrilee Rush
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=y16Ac9O9Alc&feature=related (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=y16Ac9O9Alc&feature=related)

Juice Newton
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IZM3OJ1X178&feature=related (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IZM3OJ1X178&feature=related)

[George Sands]

Will no one rid me of these turbulent poems?

[andymays]

Will no one rid me of these turbulent poems?


You're asking for it if you call them poems! ;)

[Ian Meyers]

With apologies to Chip Taylor:[/font]

Indulto,

Off topic, but did you know Chip Taylor is one of the original users of Thorograph He was a partner of mine on a handicapping team about 5 years ago and a fantastic handicapper. For those that don't recognize the name, Chip wrote the songs Wild Thing and Angel of the Morning, and is Jon Voight's brother and Angelina Jolie's uncle.

[George Sands]

You're asking for it if you call them poems! ;)

I tried calling them other things. It didn't work. What I'd really like to call them is extinct.

[Indulto]

Indulto,

Off topic, but did you know Chip Taylor is one of the original users of Thorograph He was a partner of mine on a handicapping team about 5 years ago and a fantastic handicapper. For those that don't recognize the name, Chip wrote the songs Wild Thing and Angel of the Morning, and is Jon Voight's brother and Angelina Jolie's uncle.IM,
Is it possible to be off-topic in this thread? ;)

I wasn't aware of Taylor's involvement with racing, but it never surprises me to find talent among fellow horseplayers. Perhaps GS will not complain any further given the TG tidbit you provided.

I was aware that he wrote "Wild Thing" for the Troggs and that his real name is James Voight and, of course, that Angela Jolie was Jon's daughter. I met Jon Voight at a reception for drama students and their families in the '90s. He was very engaging in a 10-minute conversation with my wife and me, and we have since seen all his movies.

"Angel of the Morning" has long been one of my musical favorites as was the Stone's "Baby You're Out of Time" which I first heard in Voight's film, "Coming Home."

[chickenhead]

I actually used to own a car that had once belonged to Jon Voight.

[Show Me the Wire]

Me too. Also, had the pencil.

[rokitman]

Who locks these things when PA is one of the perps (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AH03C3HtIxs&feature=player_embedded)?

[Light]

There'll be no tracking of tlg’s picks


Five reasons why no one can track TLG's picks.

1) Because according to TLG fans,if you use his web based picks,they are not necessarily accurate,especially if they dont win.They're more accurate when they win.

2)You have to listen to his show. But you have to tell where he is stressing a horse he really likes. So if you think its horse A and horse B wins,you just weren't listening close enough. Its your fault,not TLG's.

3) Try his twitter.Its like a horseracing paradise and its God is TLG. He'll tell you when to run to the window. If its a loser,only he knows before hand and you are just a twit.

4) O.K. If all that is still not convincing, just use the excuse that he has to send in his picks in before his mommy makes him breakfast. I mean how can someone like that think let alone handicap. So any losses when his mommy dont make him breakfast,do not count. Everyone knows Mothers know best.

5) And finally tell that Lightheaded guy that he should try it sometime and see how hard it is. Tell him he has to pick 500 races or he's a pussy. That'll either keep him busy or shut him and that Jon guy up for good. Yes. TLG will rule. Nyra will survive. And Napalm sure smells good. YeeHaa.

[ezrabrooks]

Chip Taylor? Did he ever own a LeBaron convertible?

Ez

[ezrabrooks]

Five reasons why no one can track TLG's picks.

1) Because according to TLG fans,if you use his web based picks,they are not necessarily accurate,especially if they dont win.They're more accurate when they win.

2)You have to listen to his show. But you have to tell where he is stressing a horse he really likes. So if you think its horse A and horse B wins,you just weren't listening close enough. Its your fault,not TLG's.

3) Try his twitter.Its like a horseracing paradise and its God is TLG. He'll tell you when to run to the window. If its a loser,only he knows before hand and you are just a twit.

4) O.K. If all that is still not convincing, just use the excuse that he has to send in his picks in before his mommy makes him breakfast. I mean how can someone like that think let alone handicap. So any losses when his mommy dont make him breakfast,do not count. Everyone knows Mothers know best.

5) And finally tell that Lightheaded guy that he should try it sometime and see how hard it is. Tell him he has to pick 500 races or he's a pussy. That'll either keep him busy or shut him and that Jon guy up for good. Yes. TLG will rule. Nyra will survive. And Napalm sure smells good. YeeHaa.

Light...a lesser man would have been beat down by now....Give'em hell!!

Ez

[The Hawk]

Is he the guy with the big pink glasses?

fffastt

No, that's Elton John.

Thomas wears big orange sunglasses, due to an eye condition that could very well lead to some serious problems, like blindness. Funny, right?

[cj]

Five reasons why no one can track TLG's picks.

1) Because according to TLG fans,if you use his web based picks,they are not necessarily accurate,especially if they dont win.They're more accurate when they win.

2)You have to listen to his show. But you have to tell where he is stressing a horse he really likes. So if you think its horse A and horse B wins,you just weren't listening close enough. Its your fault,not TLG's.

3) Try his twitter.Its like a horseracing paradise and its God is TLG. He'll tell you when to run to the window. If its a loser,only he knows before hand and you are just a twit.

4) O.K. If all that is still not convincing, just use the excuse that he has to send in his picks in before his mommy makes him breakfast. I mean how can someone like that think let alone handicap. So any losses when his mommy dont make him breakfast,do not count. Everyone knows Mothers know best.

5) And finally tell that Lightheaded guy that he should try it sometime and see how hard it is. Tell him he has to pick 500 races or he's a pussy. That'll either keep him busy or shut him and that Jon guy up for good. Yes. TLG will rule. Nyra will survive. And Napalm sure smells good. YeeHaa.

Yes, not personal at all, is it light?

[cj]

I actually used to own a car that had once belonged to John Voight.

FTFY.

[chickenhead]

shit, you're right, it was John Voight. I got screwed!

[Ernie Dahlman]

Chip and I talk before almost every race in NY. He is a very good handicapper and comes up with alot of live longshots. One day many years ago we went over a pick 6 with a medium size carryover. We agreed on the contenders in 4 of the races but we each had a stong opinion in one of the other 2 races. Each of our strong opinions won and we both won the pick six for a sizable score. As the last winner crossed the finish line Chip called and said "thanks Ern I never would have caught this thing if you didn't give me that horse." I said "Chip, the horse I gave you was a 3/5 shot, the horse you gave me was 30-1."

[bigmack]

I gave you was a 3/5 shot, the horse you gave me was 30-1."
:lol:

It pays to be obvious. All too often things are right in front of our face and are allusive.

Approx payout of the P6 was...

[Tee]

Stop using fancy internet abbreviation lingo, I had to look that $hit up!! I did however learn something new - the dirty version. :)

FTFY.

[PaceAdvantage]

Five reasons why no one can track TLG's picks.Hell, I'd be tracking TLG's picks if only you would do more picking and less whining.

In the time it took you to put that whole "mother" rant together, imagine how many races you could have handicapped for Wednesday's Belmont card...

But nooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooo....:lol: :lol: :lol:

[Ernie Dahlman]

bigmack,
I believe it was in the $45000 range and I think we had 3 of the 4 winning tickets.

[Imriledup]

Ern, how's the Coast treatin you these days!?

[Ernie Dahlman]

[QUOTE=bigmack]:lol:

It pays to be obvious. All too often things are right in front of our face and are allusive.

Chip wrote a song about me called "Keep It Simple Stupid". One of the lyrics is "Don't go adding color to what looks good in black and white. Each time it hits you right between the eyes, so keep it simple stupid or pay the price."

[ezrabrooks]

I actually used to own a car that had once belonged to Jon Voight.

Chick, I didn't see your reference to Jon Voight...but, the mention of him always reminds me of that episode.. FTFY? My urban lingo is pretty week...WDTM (what does that mean)?

Ez

[Overlay]

Chick, I didn't see your reference to Jon Voight...but, the mention of him always reminds me of that episode.. FTFY? My urban lingo is pretty week...WDTM (what does that mean)?

Ez

FTFY = Fixed That For You (i.e., cj, in his capacity as moderator, corrected the spelling of Jon Voight's name in chickenhead's original post)

[jonnielu]

Five reasons why no one can track TLG's picks.

5) And finally tell that Lightheaded guy that he should try it sometime and see how hard it is. Tell him he has to pick 500 races or he's a pussy. That'll either keep him busy or shut him and that Jon guy up for good. Yes. TLG will rule. Nyra will survive. And Napalm sure smells good. YeeHaa.

I had my own reasons for tracking TLG, and spending my time to publish an alternative. That reason was to demonstrate to racing, that if they would make a little effort, and do something just a little different, they could offer something better to all fans. And perhaps, attract some fresh blood by showing what the possibilities are.

It is just my opinion, but, I believe that racing errs in promoting itself by featuring shows that are all about how smart the personalities are. It also sends a message that if you aren't real smart, you should play another game, because if our smart guy has a bad day, it was because he wasn't smart enough and needs to work a little harder.

I believe that overall philosophy doesn't send a very positive message to the average fan that might show up on a Saturday just to see what this game is all about. To make it worse, the "smart" personalities often tell this guy what a tough game it is, and that they are probably wasting their time trying to figure out this here particular race, because it is a wide open grab bag.

Then they folow that with a lot of jibber-jabber about "figures", turn speed, biases, wonder what the track is like? But, I think #6 will win, because I know that the trainor is sneaky in these situations, and this jockey is known as "the money rider". Then #6 comes in fourth.

I think that the average guy that comes out on a Saturday afternoon has been fairly turned off by all of this for at least 10 years now.

I believe that with just a little adjustment, racing could put something in front of this guy that might have a chance of causing him to stick around for awhile, by letting him know that it is okay to loosen up a little and play. It is horse racing for godsakes, nobody is so smart that they can sit there figuring out which one will win all day. That is what makes it the game that it is.

That is also what makes it a game that people like to play, right up until it says that you have to be brainiac/einstein just to cash a ticket or two.

TLG garners great fame by putting Essex Ferry on top 2nd 8/5/09, and the horse payed $37.00 hurrah, hurrah. Essex Ferry was my [Watch] horse, interpreted by most as a fourth pick. We both had #1 amongst the 4 picks too. Exacta $153.00.

@ #Saratoga WED 8/5/09 - 2nd Race - #8,#1,#4 - Watch #5 W/P/S EX/Tri/Sup Pk3 3X3X3 Pk4 11:38 AM Aug 5th from web

But in the 1st, 8/5/09 the #7, Disco Diva, a $53.00 winner is missing completely from the TLG lineup while the Fav, #8 is 2nd (TLG's 4th), that exacta was $210.50, the DD was 765.00

@ #Saratoga WED 8/5/09 - 1st Race - #7,#8,#1A - Watch #6 W/P/S EX/Tri/Sup Pk3 3X3X3 Pk4 11:37 AM Aug 5th from web

Then in the 3rd, another TLG 4th pick strikes, #2 Paracaidas, $12.00. That DD was worth $201, and the Pk3 $6772.00

@ #Saratoga WED 8/5/09 - 3rd Race - #2,#1A,#3 - Watch #6 W/P/S EX/Tri/Sup Pk3 3X3X3 Pk4 11:39 AM Aug 5th from web

What would happen to the handle, if racing could tell the player that perhaps the key to success is not to be "too smart" and exclude too much. But, maybe it's okay to be a little dumb and throw in a couple of more horses, because nobody is so smart.

But, according to the "smart" rules, you can't box my 4 horses, because the third race exacta was only $24.00, and hell, that's no money.

jdl

[ezrabrooks]

FTFY = Fixed That For You (i.e., cj, in his capacity as moderator, corrected the spelling of Jon Voight's name in chickenhead's original post)

Thanks.. Doubt I will get much use out of that one!!

Ez

[PaceAdvantage]

@ #Saratoga WED 8/5/09 - 1st Race - #7,#8,#1A - Watch #6 W/P/S EX/Tri/Sup Pk3 3X3X3 Pk4 11:37 AM Aug 5th from web

Then in the 3rd, another TLG 4th pick strikes, #2 Paracaidas, $12.00. That DD was worth $201, and the Pk3 $6772.00

@ #Saratoga WED 8/5/09 - 3rd Race - #2,#1A,#3 - Watch #6 W/P/S EX/Tri/Sup Pk3 3X3X3 Pk4 11:39 AM Aug 5th from web Gee, I hope Light doesn't come down on you too hard because you just happened to post a few of your "winning" selections here, kind of like what set him off about those who talk about TLG....

[PaceAdvantage]

You would think Light and Jonni would be chomping at the bit to take me up on my simple offer to track their plays vs. the little guy.

I mean, not only would they get to show their handicapping superiority, but they would also get to prove me wrong at the same time...

Such bluster...such anti-establishment talk...such bravado...and a whole Selections (http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/forumdisplay.php?f=4) section awaiting them...come on fellas...prove me wrong...I know you love that kind of thing...

[speed]

light i am curious with having to post selections prior to knowing the track conditions, scratches, and a host of other raceday conditions what do you consider an appropriate ROI?

[Tom]

I'd like to know what light's roi was for the entire pic4 contest he won.

[jonnielu]

You would think Light and Jonni would be chomping at the bit to take me up on my simple offer to track their plays vs. the little guy.

I mean, not only would they get to show their handicapping superiority, but they would also get to prove me wrong at the same time...

Such bluster...such anti-establishment talk...such bravado...and a whole Selections (http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/forumdisplay.php?f=4) section awaiting them...come on fellas...prove me wrong...I know you love that kind of thing...

For me, it is not about my plays vs the little guy, it never has been. Sure, it is fun joisting back and forth, but the truth is that there are several different perspectives that can win at this game.

Perhaps the simplest perspective, that does and can work, is one of "inclusive" for the beginner, instead of "exclusive". The job is to attempt to engage the average person to the point that that might decide to play this game instead of going to the casino.

I'm not trying to show anyone that I am smarter then someone else because I put this horse on top of that horse. I am trying to tell the beginner that the truth is that this is a very competitive game and often, the results will come down to a split second incident on the track today.

Because of that reality, it may be better for the beginner to win bet by putting the right 4 horses in a $1 P3 as opposed to trying to figure out which one is "best". Or, box the right 4 in an exacta. At least they can play while they learn, instead of going broke and determining that they aren't "smart enough".

For the Fourstardave, TLG could have looked real smart, and helped a lot of other people feel pretty smart too, if he simply could have told everybody that a horse walking through its allowance conditions (Justenoughhumor) with w,w,w means at least, that it is a 1 in 1000 horse. Maybe that simple factor alone is worth a $5 bet to win. At the end of the day, many people could have left bragging that they learned something about horseracing, that maybe they can use again. Maybe they'd want to know more.

On the same race, he mentioned something along the line that he didn't understand why Mambo Meister was there. Implying that the horse probably isn't "good enough". Mambo Meister was there to compete for the purse, he headed the "good" horse for 2nd at 35-1. TLG could have told the fans that there were several high caliber horses assembled to run for that purse, perhaps a group bet would be in order.

I don't beleive that it is good for racing when the public handicapper is surprised so many times a day. At some point, it becomes obvious to the public that apparently no one can be "smart enough". So, cut the cards.

jdl

[Java Gold@TFT]

Jonnie, teaching newbies and encouraging betting at Belmont and Aqueduct? What have you been inhaling? Other than Saratoga the show is only for peopele who would take the time to watch on basic cable in NY. There probably aren't more than 10 newbies in the state who would access the NYRA feed through their website and definitely not have invested in the expense of getting other sources like TVG or HRTV. The NYRA on track feed is the only place where your arguments about teaching newbies anything holds up water. At the same time, I spend my time in the paddock at Saratoga where the majority of newbies and $2 bettors are and I can tell you that they aren't addicted to the monitors between races when there is beer and potato chips on the picnic table. None the less, TLG does move on and make comments about everything from speed figs to showing race replays for bad trips to how a horse may look in the paddock or what kind of breeding a horse has or brought at a sale - all things that help newbies learn what you are asking for. He also has only a few minutes to say something about almost every horse in the race. I missed your point about educating the newbies - is he supposed to talk about Moss pace figs or physicality that no newbie would have the slightest idea about?

[jonnielu]

Jonnie, teaching newbies and encouraging betting at Belmont and Aqueduct? What have you been inhaling? Other than Saratoga the show is only for peopele who would take the time to watch on basic cable in NY. There probably aren't more than 10 newbies in the state who would access the NYRA feed through their website and definitely not have invested in the expense of getting other sources like TVG or HRTV. The NYRA on track feed is the only place where your arguments about teaching newbies anything holds up water. At the same time, I spend my time in the paddock at Saratoga where the majority of newbies and $2 bettors are and I can tell you that they aren't addicted to the monitors between races when there is beer and potato chips on the picnic table. None the less, TLG does move on and make comments about everything from speed figs to showing race replays for bad trips to how a horse may look in the paddock or what kind of breeding a horse has or brought at a sale - all things that help newbies learn what you are asking for. He also has only a few minutes to say something about almost every horse in the race. I missed your point about educating the newbies - is he supposed to talk about Moss pace figs or physicality that no newbie would have the slightest idea about?

The point would be that if there are no more then 10 newbies that would access the show through the website, NYRA is doing a poor job of marketing racing.

Wouldn't it be nice, if one guy could tell the other guy that he had nothing better to do the other day besides watch the NYRA feed. And, the goofball on the show said that he could tell just from Justenoughhumor's basic record that it was a champion caliber horse, so he bet $5 bucks and won.

Maybe one day, there could be 100 newbies tuning into the feed in NY.

jdl

[tleusin]

What turns people to casinos is exactly what turns me away. Most casino gambling is mindless and fast. Add to this the long shot possibilty of winning a million or two and you have a game that most people enjoy.
Horse racing demands time, energy, education, discipline and restraint. I find it invigorating and a challenge that simple repeatative button pushing can not match.
Track selectors are not to blame for folks going to casinos. A friend of mine tried the track but said "Why should I bet $2 for the chance to win $10 when I can bet the same $2 for a chance to win $100,000"

[jonnielu]

What turns people to casinos is exactly what turns me away. Most casino gambling is mindless and fast. Add to this the long shot possibilty of winning a million or two and you have a game that most people enjoy.
Horse racing demands time, energy, education, discipline and restraint. I find it invigorating and a challenge that simple repeatative button pushing can not match.
Track selectors are not to blame for folks going to casinos. A friend of mine tried the track but said "Why should I bet $2 for the chance to win $10 when I can bet the same $2 for a chance to win $100,000"

It would be that your friend is much more likely to win the $10 then the $100,000. But, your friend has been trained to hear only what he wants to hear, so that he might buy the image without considering the substance.

It is a big problem in these modern times. It has gone from people don't think to people don't want to think.

I never said track selectors are to blame for people going to casinos. I said that horse racing has failed to market well, while gambling in general has, and gambling in general is more desirable in our modern society because people have been taught to not think, just pay, or just lose, while you imagine that you are vacationing in the Bahamas and the bill will never arrive because you have a credit card.

Racing is caught in a position where it now must market itself well, or die, and marketing is the one thing racing has never gotten any experience in because they have always had the publishers of information to do it for them.

So now you have a market that refuses to think, or make a decision, but, does want to gamble because that can make them rich, famous, and equip them with major sex appeal. While racing sells them handicapping.

That sales pitch, which appeals to the very few, about the hard work and education, is consistently shown to be false, or at least mis-guided at race tracks all over the country where the average mutuel payoff has gone from 4-1 to closer to 5-1 while everybody has been busting their asses learning how to handicap for the past 50 years.

It's not com[plicated.

jdl

[banacek]

What turns people to casinos is exactly what turns me away. Most casino gambling is mindless and fast. Add to this the long shot possibilty of winning a million or two and you have a game that most people enjoy.
Horse racing demands time, energy, education, discipline and restraint. I find it invigorating and a challenge that simple repeatative button pushing can not match.
Track selectors are not to blame for folks going to casinos. A friend of mine tried the track but said "Why should I bet $2 for the chance to win $10 when I can bet the same $2 for a chance to win $100,000"

I agree. It's the lack of patience, the need for action. I haven't turned $2 into $100,000 at the track, but I have turned $200 into $10,000. Only problem is it took 2 months and I only bet to win at one track. Too long..too boring...no patience. Isn't that is where the Pick 6 is supposed to attract those people?

[jonnielu]

I agree. It's the lack of patience, the need for action. I haven't turned $2 into $100,000 at the track, but I have turned $200 into $10,000. Only problem is it took 2 months and I only bet to win at one track. Too long..too boring...no patience. Isn't that is where the Pick 6 is supposed to attract those people?

Sure, but the mindless Pick6 rarely wins. Only one or two mindless picks in the series.

jdl

[nobeyerspls]

You would think Light and Jonni would be chomping at the bit to take me up on my simple offer to track their plays vs. the little guy.

I mean, not only would they get to show their handicapping superiority, but they would also get to prove me wrong at the same time...

Such bluster...such anti-establishment talk...such bravado...and a whole Selections (http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/forumdisplay.php?f=4) section awaiting them...come on fellas...prove me wrong...I know you love that kind of thing...

You have issued the wrong challenge. If I was the recipient I would realize that I would have to buy a Form every day and post picks on days I'm not playing. Then too, I still work so handicapping would get in the way of that. Picking three horses per race for the entire card does not equate to actual wagering at race time. I think that both Light and Jonni know that LTG's handcapping/wagering abilities are not represented by his public picks. If they did the whole race card every day and computed an ROI it would be very different from their wagering results, as would yours and mine.
They should admit that and move on. If they want to go up against LTG, I suggest the format in my earlier post.

[Light]

Not only is the challenge absurd,but I never said I could do better than him.I dont even play NYRA except Aqueduct so how would I know if I could outperform him or not. What I did say was that -7% is unacceptable wether by him,by me or anybody. And that all those hits people get excited about have to be put in the context of his overall performance.

Those excuses for having a -7% ROI are just that,excuses.As I said there's no gaurantee he does better under other conditions since when his top pick is scratched,his ROI is actually better. Also note as I am writing this the NYRA website has the the scratches and changes posted already and his show hasn't started,so enough with that BS. He Just doesnt have access to late scratches like everyone else. I can tell you race 4 is off the turf,a couple of horses have shoe changes and 10 horses are scratched. See the time stamp of this post.

Of course the most practical solution is right in front of us. If people have a hard time believing TLG's ROI is negative they can simply start a thread and track his picks. But then again we get into that grey area of is that really who he really likes and all that jazz. Come on. When you ask someone what their roi is, do they say"-7% but with adjustments its +18%". Yeah and with adjustments I would have hit all those pick 6's and pick 4's I missed by 1 horse and all the would shoulda crap. We would all have our ROI's lifted to the moon. Its not real till the dough hits your pocket.

Others here say,they mainly listen to him for backround information. Maybe he points out a bad trip,trainer stats etc. That's fine,but with all that info,if you still lose money what's the point unless you just like to hear him talk. If I'm going to listen to somebody,his theory and reality better jive.

[Light]

They are now showing the replays of all of yesterdays races. The scratches have been up for over a half hour. My guess is his show wont start till at least 45 minutes after these scratches and changes were posted.

[cj]

They are now showing the replays of all of yesterdays races. The scratches have been up for over a half hour. My guess is his show wont start till at least 45 minutes after these scratches and changes were posted.

It has been clear, for quite a while, that we all know he posts his picks after early scratches, but before late. It is what it is. Keep beating that dead horse though. We know it isn't personal.

[Ernie Dahlman]

If bettors would stop betting on TLG's picks his ROI would improve dramatically. My friend Chip Taylor said to me yesterday "hiring Andy Serling was the smartest thing NYRA has done in years". For the record, Chip has never met Andy, I have.

[JustRalph]

It has been clear, for quite a while, that we all know he posts his picks after early scratches, but before late. It is what it is. Keep beating that dead horse though. We know it isn't personal.


Light's "Andy Problem" has always been personal. I tried to hint at it a while back in this thread.........

If you have followed Light over the years...........it makes perfect sense that he would hate Andy..........

[PaceAdvantage]

I think that both Light and Jonni know that LTG's handcapping/wagering abilities are not represented by his public picks.Judging by their online responses, I wouldn't extend them that kind of common sense courtesy.

[andymays]

Maybe Obama could invite them to the White House for a beer. :)

[PaceAdvantage]

Also note as I am writing this the NYRA website has the the scratches and changes posted already and his show hasn't started,so enough with that BS.That's odd. I'm looking at this picks right now. And the #3 is scratched in the third race, yet Andy still lists the #3 as his fourth choice in that race.

So, enough with your BS. His online picks (which you used to judge his ROI, and which I would use to judge YOUR ROI should you ever choose to accept my challenge) DO NOT REFLECT LATE SCRATCHES and CHANGES, unless of course they were doing things differently at Saratoga...but at least with some of the turf races I remember coming off the turf up there, this was not the case.