Should I swallow my pride and play Belmont's Pick 4?

[Space Monkey]

I've made a decision to play the Pick 4 as my primary bet. I also have decided to only play the lower takeout tracks. The problem I'm having is that NY racing is the place I want to be. But the takeout there is 26%. NJ, KY, CA, IND all have takeouts around 20%. But does the large pool and my affinity for NY outweigh the takeout factor?

[CBedo]

I think you have to think about your "effective takeout." We deal with this in poker tournaments all the time. One poker tournament might only take out 10%, but it is small and full of really good players. Another tournament has an 18% vig, but 20% of the pool is terrible and can't win. Which is really the lower takeout?

If you know the NY circuit better than others, and feel that you have a bigger edge there, possibly your true edge (after takeout) might still be the same or greater than at lower stated takeout tracks. Maybe, maybe not. Only you can make that call, so I didn't vote since there was no "maybe" selection.

Just something to think about.

[bisket]

space the amount of betting you do. i wouldn't have such a big hangup with the takeout. if the pool is larger your winnings are largewr most times. so that would be another plus for belmont.

[CBedo]

if the pool is larger your winnings are largewr most times. so that would be another plus for belmont.:confused: Huh?

[Imriledup]

:confused: Huh?

With a larger pool, there's not only more 'cushion' to prevent you from knocking down your own price, but there's just that much more uneducated money to 'pad' things. The bigger the pools, the more you make if you win.

[ranchwest]

Knowing the circuit is a big advantage.

[Jay Trotter]

Space Monkey,

I would have to go 100% with what CBedo has stated!

It would be no different than playing in Handicapping Tournaments that fit your strengths or participating in Golf Tournaments where the course fits your game.

Your "effective takeout" kind of says it all! :ThmbUp:

Trotter


I think you have to think about your "effective takeout." We deal with this in poker tournaments all the time. One poker tournament might only take out 10%, but it is small and full of really good players. Another tournament has an 18% vig, but 20% of the pool is terrible and can't win. Which is really the lower takeout?

If you know the NY circuit better than others, and feel that you have a bigger edge there, possibly your true edge (after takeout) might still be the same or greater than at lower stated takeout tracks. Maybe, maybe not. Only you can make that call, so I didn't vote since there was no "maybe" selection.

Just something to think about.

[SansuiSC]

NYRA is my primary circuit and I have no problem playing the P4 despite the takeout. Pools are large enough to still have a nice payoff.
If I find the sequence playable then I will play it. Today 9/24 the first sequence was not playable for me based on how I play but the late sequence is playable and started off with a $35 horse who I used so if I make it through the last 3 legs payoff will be well.
The weekends are even better because theres alot of dumb money to make the pools even larger.

Never do I think about the takeout even though I wish it were lower.

[CBedo]

Never do I think about the takeout even though I wish it were lower.which is why tracks don't feel the need to lower it. They assume most players think like this...and I think they are right.

[SansuiSC]

which is why tracks don't feel the need to lower it. They assume most players think like this...and I think they are right.
It only applies to NYRA for me because of the pool size and it being my main circuit.
I do pay attention to other tracks and their takeouts and do boycott wagers where applicable. ;)

[CBedo]

It only applies to NYRA for me because of the pool size and it being my main circuit.
I do pay attention to other tracks and their takeouts and do boycott wagers where applicable. ;)I think you probably think about it about 100x more than most (that don't visit this forum anyway).

And I didn't mean to take a low blow at you personally if that's how it sounded. If so, I apologize.

[misscashalot]

I think you probably think about it about 100x more than most (that don't visit this forum anyway).


My Hard Look At Takeout

From Jan 1st I have bet 173 races winning 61 WIN only. My WIN roi is +.554. Under different circumstances my basic bet amount changes. I do not bet X, but if I did using the win bet key my roi would be +.405. The tri roi would be +.301. The NYRA would have to make all takeouts on a par in order for me to even think about betting X or Tri. Of course the only reason I would bet the X is if my win bet would tilt the odds a bit, and I needed to look to the X pool to lay off some more $. Betting the NYRA with those high pools makes my choice easy. It's Win only for me (lowest takeout). Like the guy said...."Build it and they will come" Well the NYRA hasn't built it yet for me, exacta wise anyway.

[SansuiSC]

I didn't take it personal so no need to apologize :)
Thanks for the kind jesture though.

I'm knocked out after the bomb in the third leg but.................

The pool for todays late P4 is $132,530. Thats alot of money to spread around even after the take. Because of the two bombs I wont even go into the payouts.

Like I said, my home circuit and large pool is why I play it. I grew up in NYRA downstate tracks and live close enough to Belmont that when the wind is blowing the right way I can smell the sweet smell of the barns.

[Space Monkey]

It's Win only for me (lowest takeout). Like the guy said...."Build it and they will come" Well the NYRA hasn't built it yet for me, exacta wise anyway.

Miss cash, the win takeout is 16% while the exacta and double takeout is 18.5%. Are you drawing that fine a line? As of now, I've set the bar at around 20%.

[fmolf]

Miss cash, the win takeout is 16% while the exacta and double takeout is 18.5%. Are you drawing that fine a line? As of now, I've set the bar at around 20%.
i agree with miss and you also...seems like a fine line but she is to be commended for drawing it at all!I am a win/exacta player but will not play any exacta with a high takeout.I know the double is a good value bet as well but i never seem to have a good roi the times i've played it.Call me an old fashioned win bettor.I also agree with the poster who posted about the tracks not lowering it when people keep playing the bets at the high takeout.

[Space Monkey]

fmolf, what do you consider a high takeout exacta to be? Most tracks are under 20%.

[misscashalot]

Miss cash, the win takeout is 16% while the exacta and double takeout is 18.5%. Are you drawing that fine a line? As of now, I've set the bar at around 20%.
No...even with parity, my roi differential would have to decrease btwn win and x. however the kicker here is in Jan at Aqu when the pools are low, if my win bet moves the pool down, then parity is closer with the x. No fine lines and no bars, just business.

[Space Monkey]

If I find the sequence playable then I will play it. Today 9/24 the first sequence was not playable for me based on how I play but the late sequence is playable

Sansui, Same here. If there's a baby race with multiple FTS, or Mdn on Turf with many entrants with no turf form, its a throwout. Sure, I could play races with babies based on breeding, connections, workouts, etc, but at best, its just an educated guess. I want better than that considering the investment I'm making in a bet like the pick 4. The scarcity of playable Pick 4's is one reason thats luring me back to higher takeout tracks.

[fmolf]

Sansui, Same here. If there's a baby race with multiple FTS, or Mdn on Turf with many entrants with no turf form, its a throwout. Sure, I could play races with babies based on breeding, connections, workouts, etc, but at best, its just an educated guess. I want better than that considering the investment I'm making in a bet like the pick 4. The scarcity of playable Pick 4's is one reason thats luring me back to higher takeout tracks.
any track with an exacta takeout over 20% i will not play.this includes arlington...fairgrounds...emarald downs...turfway....woodbine....and i believe philly park to name just a few.

[Niko]

Two thoughts; if you're making money the high take hurts you but you're still making money, so why not play it? Plus is you're getting rebates you'll get higher rebates with a higher take in general if you're betting enough. A good situation for you, take advantage of it.

But if you're not making money and you're playing into higher takeout pools you're allowing the track to continue to stay at those rates and supporting it.

[Space Monkey]

I want to thank everybody for their comments and votes. Real life has gotten in the way lately and I apologize for not paying attention to this thread.

I thought A would win but I'm surprised at the 2 to 1 ratio. Since finding "playable" pick 4's is a daunting task by itself, I am going to include Belmont in my lists of tracks to play. While the higher takeout is offset somewhat by the large pool, the biggest plus for me is that there is no other circuit in North America where I can get behind a double digit odds horse with confidence than NY racing. Hands down, no contest. Thats a huge plus. Here's my list of the tracks and their Pick 4 takeout that I will be playing this fall.

Meadowlands 15%
Santa Anita 20%
Hoosier 21%
Belmont 26%

[SansuiSC]

I want to thank everybody for their comments and votes. Real life has gotten in the way lately and I apologize for not paying attention to this thread.

I thought A would win but I'm surprised at the 2 to 1 ratio. Since finding "playable" pick 4's is a daunting task by itself, I am going to include Belmont in my lists of tracks to play. While the higher takeout is offset somewhat by the large pool, the biggest plus for me is that there is no other circuit in North America where I can get behind a double digit odds horse with confidence than NY racing. Hands down, no contest. Thats a huge plus. Here's my list of the tracks and their Pick 4 takeout that I will be playing this fall.

Meadowlands 15%
Santa Anita 20%
Hoosier 21%
Belmont 26%


Best of luck in your P4 plays. You will see alot of common horses between NYRA and Meadowlands since they are so close as the fall progresses. Just keep an eye on the pools at the Meadowlands.

[Space Monkey]

Yup, the small meadowlands pool is a concern. I've got one negative angle to mention in regards to horses in the NY, NJ, PHIL, triangle. I've noticed if a horse gets scratched in NY and entered at a lower level in NJ or PHIL, they are overbet and they lose.

[Space Monkey]

I've got one negative angle to mention in regards to horses in the NY, NJ, PHIL, triangle. I've noticed if a horse gets scratched in NY and entered at a lower level in NJ or PHIL, they are overbet and they lose.
10-02-2009 10:19 PM

I know, I know, I'm copying, pasting my own comment. Bad form. But I have to insert the word "usually" after overbet and before lose. Nothing is definitive in racing.

[1st time lasix]

Avoiding high take outs is imperative over the long run if you play often. Unless a significant rebate is involved......{in my humble opinion} an onerous 26% rake is too high...it just reduces the payout that one needs to cover all losing wagers. I only play it as a hedge to my "alive"' carryover pick 6 plays if i am alive after two. ....using a few horses that I no longer have on my alive ticket. Happy hunting!

[rrbauer]

Knowing the circuit is a big advantage.

Amen. We have the P4 contest for the winter AQU meet at this board. I always need to use more horses overall because I don't follow that circuit on a regular basis. Consequently, trainer nuances, trip issues, etc. are usually missing from my knowledge. To compensate, I have to use more horses.