Morning Lines...A help or hinderance?

[misscashalot]

:confused: How important are morning lines to you?

[Pcon04]

very!!! can't play w/o it...

pcon

[bisket]

they give a good guideline to go by as far as odds are concerned. they are helpful, but they aren't always correct

[Overlay]

:confused: How important are morning lines to you?

Morning lines are neither a help nor a hindrance to me, since I pay no attention to them. For me, only actual odds have a bearing on locating wagering value.

[illinoisbred]

Morning lines are neither a help nor a hindrance to me, since I pay no attention to them. For me, only actual odds have a bearing on locating wagering value.
Same here.I'd be quite happy in fact if no such thing existed.

[BELMONT 6-6-09]

The morning line is very important for me in that I can get a fairly accurate view of the horses the public generally will side with and the selections that can be generally overlooked.

This is my only amunition when playing with the handicap of not knowing closing odds which is roughly 70% of the time. For me I make this process work the overwhelming majority of times..yes their are races where you get fooled but nothing is 100% anyway.

[Imriledup]

An ML can hurt you if the ML maker makes a mistake on a live runner that he lines too high. If there's a horse who's 8-1 ML who figures to go off at 3-1, that runner might go off 2-1 because players will be salivating the night before and once they are locked into their 'best bet' they don't change too often.

Players will be salivating thinking they're going to get 8-1 on a horse they love, when in reality, its a 3-1 shot that the ML maker messed up and lined too high.

[Run Nicholas Run]

Very Important to myself.
I use the ml to toss horses who are either
the mlf or 15-1 and up as the longshots
win only about 6 % of the time.
After these tosses , out go the low percentage riders
and then I have the 3 or 4 contenders and then use the
rest of the percentages in my favor.

[Tom]

Hardly ever look them.

[classhandicapper]

I hardly ever look at them, but if anything they are probably a hindrance because if I notice that a particular horse is long or short it may give me some kind of preconceived notion about is ability before I actually start digging in.

[raybo]

I use the M/Line ranking, coupled with tote action within the last 5 mtp for my most lucrative spot play, concerning the win spot on my superfecta tickets. Although these spot play horses hit at around 40%, at pt odds between 4/1-8/1, it hinges on the track(s) line setter(s) and the public's faith in him/her. It works at the tracks I wager on, so, that's good enough for me.

These "recipe horses", as I call them, produce some very good superfecta payouts, especially if the favorite finishes down the ticket. If the fav misses the top 4 completely it can make your whole meet (or your whole year).

[cmoore]

I hardly ever pay attention to the ML odds..Actually, I print my pps without them..But my software has them. So I can't ignore them totally..

[HUSKER55]

I don't use them to make my picks. I like to "steer my own ship". I do however use them to decide on who is takeing on real money and who is not.

One poster on another thread sumed it up very well. A horse that drops from 5 to 1 down to 5/2 at 2 min to post took on more money than a 20/1 that drops to 10/1.

But that is just me.

[fmolf]

I only use them in two instances....a race with a lot of first time starters...i look for horses being bet down from the morning line.Secondly I find it a little bit helpful if i am at a strange track or betting a strange track and am not very familiar with the horses or trainers

[kitts]

Morning Line is important to me making betting decisions in the morning but I always spend time convincing myself that it is somewhat accurate.

[46zilzal]

Morning lines are neither a help nor a hindrance to me, since I pay no attention to them. For me, only actual odds have a bearing on locating wagering value.
BINGO. Many odds lines makers haven't a clue and write total odds at over 125% probability

[dav4463]

Very Important to myself.
I use the ml to toss horses who are either
the mlf or 15-1 and up as the longshots
win only about 6 % of the time.
After these tosses , out go the low percentage riders
and then I have the 3 or 4 contenders and then use the
rest of the percentages in my favor.


A lot of players could benefit from this strategy. Simple, yet elegant! I would consider the BEST in your opinion 15-1+ horse and add him as an exotics buster though!

[overthehill]

I disagree with you in the sense that at the major tracks that i follow the ml guys seem to be very good. Usually they have the right favorite and the contenders pegged pretty well. I think its usually the public that is whacky frequently overbetting the obvious favorite especially.

[misscashalot]

At Belmont, yesterday Sep 30 in the 4th ML on He Aint Easy was 5/1.
Won and paid $33.80.
Crowd or Line Maker error?

[strapper]

Line makers have to adjust their odds within certain parameters so they fall anywhere from 17 to 25 per cent over a perfect 100%. The computer program that I use will let you know in no uncertain terms when your line fails to be within the recommended guidelines. The track's cut is the reason you are not offered the entire pool back to be divvied up amongst the crowd.

BINGO. Many odds lines makers haven't a clue and write total odds at over 125% probability

[Overlay]

Line makers have to adjust their odds within certain parameters so they fall anywhere from 17 to 25 per cent over a perfect 100%. The computer program that I use will let you know in no uncertain terms when your line fails to be within the recommended guidelines. The track's cut is the reason you are not offered the entire pool back to be divvied up amongst the crowd.

It's true that line makers' lines total in the range that you cite in order to reflect take and breakage, to match what the public will see on the tote board . However, if a handicapper makes his own 100% line, he can compare the odds from that line directly with the tote board (without the need for further adjustment of his own line) in order to determine which horses are offering wagering value, since the tote board odds represent the minimum that a win bet will pay.

[Horseplayersbet.com]

Morning line odds used to be great to bet against back in the days when 1 in 4 bettors read a racing form or past performances of any kind (pp's were not in the program back then).
The public would over bet the program numbers a lot back then. It still goes on, but it is nowhere near affective to bet against them, though I try to avoid program selections whenever possible.
I still avoid betting first two choice program exactors or program first choice doubles.

[jonnielu]

At Belmont, yesterday Sep 30 in the 4th ML on He Aint Easy was 5/1.
Won and paid $33.80.
Crowd or Line Maker error?

That's a crowd error, it happens all the time. People have no faith in the biggest and longest running consistency of the sport, the morning line, because they don't know how it works. This kind of thing happens when an 8 or 10 - 1 might be displaying the hot pattern for the week.

When the crowd has been taught to jump on certain patterns instead of staying centered in consistency, that jump can be very big and very heavy. A 5-1 ML is usually a 3rd or 4th ML choice. Roughly, a 15% winner, which is a good deal at 15-1. Just checking the box, and finding that this horse is at least a 20% win for starts, makes it an even better deal.

If you can find some clear signals of stable effort on the track before post, you are into a great opportunity.

In the converse, if the horse were taking any money at all, you would want to check the PP's for anything that the public likes to bet. If there is nothing, you've got an opportunity again.

While handicapping is supposed to be a measure of the horse, analysis of the ML along with the pre-race activities, allows you to measure the handicapping.

jdl

[misscashalot]

That's a crowd error, it happens all the time. People have no faith in the biggest and longest running consistency of the sport, the morning line, because they don't know how it works. This kind of thing happens when an 8 or 10 - 1 ............... jdl

Really good perspective on your part. We talk about 10 or 15-1's. But there's plenty of value with ML's at 9/2 down to 3/1. And so many more times the crowd will overbet the ML fav to the point of underlay status, and let at ML 7/2 win at 5 or 6/1. What's wrong with that? This is more the case than the crowd making a 5/1 a 15/1 steal.

[jballscalls]

morning line is just one guys educated guess. however i find it useful to pay attention to it in pick 3's and pick 4's. seems that many times, by the time you get to that 3rd or 4th leg, the payouts are very in tune to the morning line rather than the real time odds when that race goes off. an 8 to 1 in the last leg may get bet down to 2nd choice, but in the pick 3 or 4 he/she often will still be the 4th or 5th choice in the payouts like they were on the line. just been my experience

[Horseplayersbet.com]

morning line is just one guys educated guess. however i find it useful to pay attention to it in pick 3's and pick 4's. seems that many times, by the time you get to that 3rd or 4th leg, the payouts are very in tune to the morning line rather than the real time odds when that race goes off. an 8 to 1 in the last leg may get bet down to 2nd choice, but in the pick 3 or 4 he/she often will still be the 4th or 5th choice in the payouts like they were on the line. just been my experience
That happens a lot. If a horse isn't picked in the top three in a later leg, and goes off as one of the choices, there seems to be value in horizontal bets.

The key to value in horizontal bets though seems to be beating a heavy favorite in the first leg.

[Robert Fischer]

morning lines matter most on racing's biggest days, when there is a larger less savvy betting public. The fan favorites that should be 2-1 or less off of public opinion are the important horses on these lines. You have to hope that these guys don't try to handicap the race and list a fan favorite at 7-2 or something.

[BMeadow]

The morning-line odds at California tracks (where I play) are very important to me because I can quickly tell whether a race will probably be playable (my own ratings don't match the morning line) or unplayable (my own ratings practically mirror the morning line).

Even though I will use other factors besides my own ratings, they are a powerful starting point for me.

I'm particularly looking for horses whom I think the morning-linemaker has too low (say, a 4-1 second choice that I have poor numbers on) or too high (an 8-1 shot looks like a solid contender to me).

This saves me valuable handicapping time as I can concentrate on the races where there may well be a discrepancy between my opinion and what the public will do.

That said, I don't bet until I can see how the public is actually betting the race (which means not only checking the win odds, but the exchanges, the exacta possibilities, and the double possibilities). Most of the time, what I consider a bad morning line is corrected--sadly--by the public. A 6-1 shot in the morning line that I make the favorite is just about never let away at anything approaching 6-1. And the terrible 5-2 favorite often winds up at 5-1 (one, a few weeks back, went off at 17-1 and never got a call). Of course, in pick 3 or pick 4 or pick 6 bets, you will have to play some legs blindly and hope the morning-line guy is accurate.

It makes little sense to spend half an hour on a race, only to wind up with the obvious 6-5 shot on top and the obvious 2-1 second choice as your main contender. The morning line could have told you that, and you could have used that time more productively.

[jonnielu]

The morning-line odds at California tracks (where I play) are very important to me because I can quickly tell whether a race will probably be playable (my own ratings don't match the morning line) or unplayable (my own ratings practically mirror the morning line).


It makes little sense to spend half an hour on a race, only to wind up with the obvious 6-5 shot on top and the obvious 2-1 second choice as your main contender. The morning line could have told you that, and you could have used that time more productively.

Exactly, the ML is usually as accurate as handicapping in general can get. There is little reason to re-handicap the race while you are looking at all of the same past performance criteria as every other handicapper in the country.

Your time is much better spent looking for an appreciable edge from a different or unusual perspective.

You might be betting against the other people, but, you are playing the game against the racing secretary. If he deserves his paycheck at all, there are at least 3 horses in today's race that can win it.

jdl

jdl

[misscashalot]

Exactly, the ML is usually as accurate as handicapping in general can get. There is little reason to re-handicap the race while you are looking at all of the same past performance criteria as every other handicapper in the country.

Your time is much better spent looking for an appreciable edge from a different or unusual perspective.

You might be betting against the other people, but, you are playing the game against the racing secretary. If he deserves his paycheck at all, there are at least 3 horses in today's race that can win it.

jdl

jdl

Anyone know the % of winning horses by ML's. (Less than 2/1, 2/1, 5/2 etc)

[strapper]

A lot of truth in what you said my friend. You really need a horse above the top 3 picks in your 2nd or 3rd leg of a Pick 3 to get a decent payoff.

morning line is just one guys educated guess. however i find it useful to pay attention to it in pick 3's and pick 4's. seems that many times, by the time you get to that 3rd or 4th leg, the payouts are very in tune to the morning line rather than the real time odds when that race goes off. an 8 to 1 in the last leg may get bet down to 2nd choice, but in the pick 3 or 4 he/she often will still be the 4th or 5th choice in the payouts like they were on the line. just been my experience

[11cashcall]

I workout my own ML based on %,then i see what the track odds maker has done to see which tracks/races's i target.