Recency

[Ian Meyers]

Recently, I've gone back to betting standardbreds after about 30 years away (exclusively t'breds during that time).

One of the major differences between the two breeds I've seen is related to recency. While t'breds can hold form for periods of time based upon morning work, it seems to me that their harness counterparts need a race every 7-10 days to maintain top racing form. Now of course a Muscle Hill will differ from a Plainridge 3K claimer, but I've noticed that even top shelf harness horses away 14 days or more may fade late as if fitness is an issue (Holiday Road last night at Red Mile the most recent example).

I'm looking to the board for some guidelines on this issue. Suggestions greatly appreciated. :)

[LottaKash]

Recently, I've gone back to betting standardbreds after about 30 years away (exclusively t'breds during that time).

One of the major differences between the two breeds I've seen is related to recency. While t'breds can hold form for periods of time based upon morning work, it seems to me that their harness counterparts need a race every 7-10 days to maintain top racing form. Now of course a Muscle Hill will differ from a Plainridge 3K claimer, but I've noticed that even top shelf harness horses away 14 days or more may fade late as if fitness is an issue (Holiday Road last night at Red Mile the most recent example).

I'm looking to the board for some guidelines on this issue. Suggestions greatly appreciated. :)

Ian, I believe that you are correct on the 7-10 day recency issue.....It is not written in stone, as some horses can and often "do" race at a more widely spaced interval(s)....But, generally I use 10 days as a cutoff for recency.....Of course, the better quality animals can and often do win when given more than a week's rest, but with the "speed" demands these days, it is often a bad sign when a horse is given a week off.....I religiously follow the splits and pace of a horse, and often times I will see that a horse may have over-extended his current abilities in his most recent race, and I have found that "smart trainers" are wise enough to give the horse a brief break in his racing schedule and form cycle to allow for a "little healing",,, And, with certain trainers, I am not bothered a bit by the week or two delay in getting back to the races, when I know that a big pace was the reason for the delay......Sometimes when a horse is not given a week off, the horse will race poorly and/or will just be given an ez race, not doing much of anything in next week's race, and this is done to offset that perceived over exertion from the previous week's race....Some trainers are not wise enough tho, to respect that over-extension and they often will do more harm than good to the horse, and race him anyway in the next week's card..... It could be because of a poor trainer or often enough,the owners are behind that thinking, and put pressure on the trainers to continue racing the poor horse, even tho, the time off would've done more good than harm....

It pays to know the trainer's and their intentions for each of their horses, when it comes to racing regularly....

best.

[LottaKash]

Recently, I've gone back to betting standardbreds after about 30 years away (exclusively t'breds during that time).

:)

Ian, "Welcome Back" to the "dark-side" of racing.....:jump:

best,

[lamboguy]

Ian, "Welcome Back" to the "dark-side" of racing.....:jump:

best,i am taking up the game too!

turfday stats provide past races and lists the trainers in prior races, do you know of anything like that in harness racing?

thanks for your help

[wilderness]

USTA's Pathway (http://pathway.ustrotting.com/), however fee based,

or

Standardbred Canada's TrackIT (https://trackit.standardbredcanada.ca/)

It's my understanding that Trackmaster also offers fee based charts and/or racelines.

[melman]

Hey Ian glad to see your taking a look at the s-breds again. I agree with your basic premise about time between races. There are exceptions of course just as you pointed out. Also with the old claimers they can take a couple of weeks off and come back and crush the field. For the most part I avoid horses who have "missed a week". It's in the nature of the s-bred to race more often when they don't I have to ask why. One angle I like is the "2nd start after a sick SCR". Can pick up some good prices with this type. Also the "raced well when a overwheming favorite was in the race" angle. There is one of those in today's 1st at Monticello.

Just to pass it on to you Ian the Monticello web site offers FREE replays of all races for the past year. Also there rolling pic3's offer MANY a huge overlay. Yesterday a pic3 with the following winners $22 $4 and $6 paid $668 for the Pic3. If you have any time drop by the War Room for a chat today.

[LottaKash]

i am taking up the game too!

turfday stats provide past races and lists the trainers in prior races, do you know of anything like that in harness racing?

thanks for your help

Lamboguy, "Trackmaster" past performances have that info....They will show you if there is a trainer change, in any and all of the previous races along with their win%.....It is a nice feature to be sure, I used to keep track of those things til now, and I am glad that I don't have to anymore....

I think you will do well at this game, as Harness-racing is so "symmetrical", in that the recency is so regular, and this distance in 99% of the races is always the same old 1-mile, despite the track circumference, and the surface is always the same good ole-dirt (track specific, of course)....That is the main reason why I put "most" of my marbles into this game and not the other one....

Good luck

[LottaKash]

Lamboguy, "Trackmaster" past performances have that info....They will show you if there is a trainer change, in any and all of the previous races along with their win%.....It is a nice feature to be sure, I used to keep track of those things til now, and I am glad that I don't have to anymore....

I think you will do well at this game, as Harness-racing is so "symmetrical", in that the recency is so regular, and this distance in 99% of the races is always the same old 1-mile, despite the track circumference, and the surface is always the same good ole-dirt (track specific, of course)....That is the main reason why I put "most" of my marbles into this game and not the other one....

Good luck

Lamboguy, I failed to mention this, the trainer's name & WPS %'s, when a horse is changing barns, are not available in the "BASIC" Trackmaster past performances...You must use a more premium version of the pp's.....I use the "Pace-Past Performances" version of that product...sorry I didn't mention that before...

Also, a hearty welcome to the "Dark-Side" of racing, to you, as well....:jump:

best,

[lamboguy]

thanks you guys are a big help

[badcompany]

In general, layoffs are a negative factor. S-breds pay their way by collecting a lot of purses and they don't do this by not racing. So, there's usually a reason for the layoff, and it's rarely a good one.

Of course, on a 1/2 mile track, post position is a huge factor, and a horse coming off a layoff, but, has the rail, might be worth a look.

[botster]

Watch for horses off claims or private purchases with missed time...Two weeks, or more, but definitely before the thirty day qualifier cutoff.Horses with positive trainer changes doing this is a very good angle.

This works, I have taken over training a few, and done it myself, on more than one occasion. One night in particuliar with a $36.00 horse.Some of these guys out there for whatever reason "gyp" on their horses, and it only takes a few weeks to get them primed and back to their business.

At Yonkers I was able to cash out on a newly aquired horse first time out of the box at 56-1 with Jimmy Marohn "at the helm", as he finished a fast closing second to set up a "JACKPOT" triple.

Good Fortune with your plunge back in!:)

[Sea Biscuit]

Ian/Lambo and others... A big welcome to the 'saner' side of racing. We need to snatch more and more of you guys to our side.

When I put a horse in my 'horses to watch list' in my VS stable I expect the the horse to show up within 7-10 days and not 2/3 months like in T-Bred.

There are more positives to this game and LottoKash has already explored on some of them in his posts.

Once again a BIG WELCOME

Sea Biscuit

[Ray2000]

I'll add my Welcome and post this here, it's kinda relevant to this thread.

What I would like to see in the program are 2 important dates.

1. days since last 3 or more weeks off and

2. list "Also Eligible" dates


The first, because this is the time of year (week 39) I start looking at number of starts and if 30+ I may look for fresher legs. But I would like to know if there was a layoff in that stretch of starts.

The second, because I can excuse missing 3 weeks if the horse was dropped in the box but didn't get in.
I realize putting this in the program will take up valuable line space, but it could be in the data file if not in the pdf version.


In any case, good luck fellows, with your "Picks on the Dark Side".:)

[DeanT]

Hey Ian,

Ray had some good stats on overnight horses away 21 or 24+ days and that is a good fade angle. For horses like Holiday Road or other stakes horses it is a different story, however. If they have a qualifier, or sometimes even if they do not, you have to watch fading those. HR at the Red Mile was not because of fitness, he had something wrong with him to race that bad. Stakes trainers race their horses more and more like thoroughbreds now and they are cracking tight for their races. What they often do is school the horse without a Q, and you do not see it on the program. For example, Somebeach off a sick line at Mohawk and around three weeks off was entered at the Red Mile in a stakes. On the Wednesday before he schooled in 151 with a 26 last quarter, so time off did not make a lick of difference.

Explosive Matter was another one for the CTC elim. He was off time, but had a pocket trip and faded to 4th. We could chalk that up to off time, but that would be a mistake. It was later reported (and you could see it on the track, imo) he was lame in the back. If you followed that, the ex with MH in the CTC final was an OK price for a millionaire 1-9 shot onto another millionaire.

Anyhow, welcome to harness racing!!!

[Ray2000]

Here's the numbers I have for 2008


Days Days Starters Wins Win% ROI
<7 - 237971 31106 13% -23%
>6 <15 181326 25558 14% -20%
>14 <22 30208 3381 11% -38%
>21 <31 8572 784 9% -50%
>30 - 3298 298 9% -45%


The ROI is a bit deceptive, many of these starters, started in the same race. ROI assumes 2$ bet on the horse(s) anyway, but the drop in ROI is dramatic.

[Ian Meyers]

Thanks everyone for the responses. I had forgotten how much I enjoyed betting and watching standardbreds previously. I actually got my start at age 13 betting on Roosevelt and Yonkers at Suffolk OTB.

As far as Holiday Road goes, definitely something amiss. In fact I was told yesterday by a buddy of mine who's hanging out at Red Mile that HR actually broke in both qualifiers in LEX, not just the first one. 2nd qualifier the break was just about at the wire and didn't make it into the program... :(

[Sea Biscuit]

The trick to solving the recency problem is to keep proper stats and see who is doing what.

Tracy Bernard and Cassie Coleman regularly bring their charges out even after the usual 7 days layoff period fit and fine.

Runaway Energy trained by TB came back after 14 days on Monday Sept 21 in the 12th race and won for fun by 6 lengths like he was supposed to.

Sea biscuit.

[LottaKash]

Thanks everyone for the responses. I had forgotten how much I enjoyed betting and watching standardbreds previously. I actually got my start at age 13 betting on Roosevelt and Yonkers at Suffolk OTB.



Hey Ian, I saw & bet my first race at "Yonkers", as well....Of course there was no "OTB" back then.....Was hooked from the get go....And I totally "quit" this game, at least 100-times since then....:cool:

best,

[botster]

I'll add my Welcome and post this here, it's kinda relevant to this thread.


The second, because I can excuse missing 3 weeks if the horse was dropped in the box but didn't get in.


Good point Ray... I know at Yonkers for example they are forced to race every other week,because of an over abundance of entries.

[Sea Biscuit]

Good point Ray... I know at Yonkers for example they are forced to race every other week,because of an over abundance of entries.

Ray, Botster If you check the early entries sheets that they put out it usually shows the AE horse listed.

For example early entries sheet for Sept 26 race 3 at Mohawk shows Twin B Rawley as an also eligible horse. It remains to be seen whether he gets in or not but at least we know that he 'tried' to get in.

Sea Biscuit

[Sea Biscuit]

And I totally "quit" this game, at least 100-times since then....:cool:

best,

John I find that very hard to believe:lol:

SB

[LottaKash]

John I find that very hard to believe:lol:

SB

Biscuit, you are right, I lied when I sadi that.... It is more like, 200-X.....:jump:

best,