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View Full Version : It's going to be a party at Belmont Wednesday


cees with dees
09-21-2009, 09:12 AM
Starting the day with just about a cold pick 3.
In the first, Soda Pop Kid makes first fast dirt start for Levine after two good efforts in the wet up north and his last was Levine's sole winner at Saratoga.
Barn going much better now and horse has won on a fast track before.
Actually raced okay for Gary Sherlock on synthetics and he is nowhere near the trainer Levine is.
May or may not be a speed duel here. Although Captain Rio is probably the quickest early of the quick, the outside draw may be the equalizer but saving with him just in case he does get loose.
In the second, Fire Wood has to break down to lose. Raced extremely well against a tons better field two back and last is a total toss when eased as a filler. Dominguez stays which won't help the price but I don't care.
In the third, I always liked Malibu Prayer as a horse. She is versatile, always shows up and can take a lot of heat and live to tell about it. May get an easy lead but if something guns inside, she can easily sit.
In the fourth, Fenway Faithful was bet out in debut and ran well albeit in the mud. Worked back 3 times and should be even better on dry ground.
Tough to go against.
Cats Kitty got bogged down inside on a track he clearly did not handle. NO panicky drop for this homebred and expect big improvement today.
Fourseventeen worth a look for the sole fact that Galluscio is off to a flying start.
In the fifth, here's another that has to fall down to lose. Whistlejacket makes first start for Anthony Dutrow who puts him in for a tag here. His firm turf starts tower over anything in here and is a deserved 1-5 shot.
In the sixth, Amiga Del Sol adds lasix and drops in for a tag for the first time like many others in here. Homebred is probably quickest early and if she improves with lasix, it's goodnight nurse.
Iron Penny was as green as a martian in debut. She's a huge gangly grey and though I'm a huge fan of saving ground, I think the outside will suit her.
In the 7th, Green Harbor has been in three impossible spots since the
Assaf Ronen claim.
Drops into the restricted claimer today and should have daylight throughout. Maybe even at a price.
In the 8th, beating the Arabs may be a problem as both parts of the entry are super nice animals. American Cruiser though goes fresh for the hottest barn on the grounds and will have a serious position edge.
In the finale, Serela's song had a good trip when third in last at Saratoga but that was one tough maiden claiming field.
Her first turf start on this course and distance was tremendous against a good field and anything close to that effort puts her in the winners circle.
I don't like Nostalgic at all.
I can't recall ever seeing something owned by the Firestone's in a maiden claimer and the fact that the filly ran well in two synthetic starts in special weight company says something is really wrong here for Clement to not give her one chance on grass without a tag.
A bomb, and I mean bomb, Pleasant Sister was banged around like a pinball in her first turf start which was against a good field and off a layoff.
Came back on dirt and showed the same speed she did in first two starts.
Barn has been dead all year until the quick start this meet.
Love Lezcano because he'll find the hedge and this one could wake up at a big number.
Good luck and I hope for no rain otherwise this entire post could be in vain.
Ben

Market Mover
09-21-2009, 03:37 PM
Cees,

Thanks for the always detailed analysis of longshots that could potentially produce a life-changing score..or scores...:)

Could you please give your opinion of Meriwether Jessica in a race filled with the boys? Why had Linda entered this horse in this race (It's not as if she has to unload anything and everything in the barn that could load into the starting gate a la closing days at Spa..)?

This chrome-filled filly has some class, but I believe they stretched her out before and realized she's a big type who could have distance limitations. I think the 5-1 ML could be a bit short, but since we're finding out that girls can also beat the boys in this country, she can't be ruled out completely. What's your take on it?

If anyone else has an opinion on this race, please chime in..

Market Mover
09-21-2009, 03:39 PM
David Donk and Johnny V team up with Split Second (Arg) in the finale. Assuming it stays on the turf, does this horse deserve the 15-1 ML? What angle could one use for inclusion of this one in the super plays?

Maybe I'm dreaming of Ordway and a few years back...

theguarantee
09-21-2009, 09:12 PM
^Was on Meriweather Jessica last race, ran 2nd, cost me a cold double last day of Saratoga...was the only bet slip I didn't cash on that once-in-a-lifetime type day. Missed the race so don't have a ton to add there.

In agreement on Malibu Prayer. Outclasses this field and it isn't really close. Her last three races couldn't look a whole lot better when you line up the competition. Ain't Love Grand is the only one that is sure to be looking for the lead as well..and she should be able to out-duel her with relative ease. Certainly would be looking to beat Acronym personally and War Echo is the horse that actually scares me the most there.

Probably all I get to cap until Wednesday. Good Luck.

cees with dees
09-23-2009, 10:08 AM
Cees,

Thanks for the always detailed analysis of longshots that could potentially produce a life-changing score..or scores...:)

Could you please give your opinion of Meriwether Jessica in a race filled with the boys? Why had Linda entered this horse in this race (It's not as if she has to unload anything and everything in the barn that could load into the starting gate a la closing days at Spa..)?

This chrome-filled filly has some class, but I believe they stretched her out before and realized she's a big type who could have distance limitations. I think the 5-1 ML could be a bit short, but since we're finding out that girls can also beat the boys in this country, she can't be ruled out completely. What's your take on it?

If anyone else has an opinion on this race, please chime in..


Hey MM. Linda Rice races Merriweather Jessica against the boys alot of the time because the opportunities for female turf sprinters are quite limited.
I don't like her in this spot for many reasons but most importantly, Linda had all of her Saratoga runners pumped up trying to win the title and since the return to Belmont, her horses are running terribly.
I'm staying well clear of her runners until further notice unless either I like one of her runners and the price is big, or, if the runner didn't race upstate.
Anything she runs here that ran at Saratoga will not be on any of my tickets.
Good luck today.
Ben

cees with dees
09-23-2009, 12:06 PM
I think Soda Pop Kid can make the front now that Captain Rio is out.
He has to get around and outsprint the 1 early but I think the 1's debut at Monmouth looks faster than it was.
If Soda Pop can get the lead, I would be very happy.
Ben

cees with dees
09-23-2009, 01:51 PM
In the 3rd at Belmont, I'm taking a small shot on a cold exacta by process of elimination.
I think Malibu Prayer is winning and of the three others, War Echo is off a long layoff for a cold barn and the 4 has never raced on real dirt. Looks like 6/2 cold to me and it's fair at $15.
Ben

theguarantee
09-23-2009, 04:11 PM
Playing a cold double with your horse Green Harbor here in the 7th.

5/9.

Would be a decent price I think and I have it a couple times.


Some nice calls during this chalk fest ... Dominguez killed most of my tickets taking Firewood out wide..maybe he had no choice, but if he and/or the horse could have been more patient there the inside opened up (as expected) and I think they would have got there. Oh well. Pick-3's and such would have been mighty chalky either way. Do like a few longer shots in some of these late ones. Good luck.

cees with dees
09-23-2009, 05:43 PM
You are too kind. My opinion was dreadful today but I still almost salvaged the day but got nipped by the horse I hated in the last.
9 more tomorrow.
Ben