Java Gold@TFT
09-19-2009, 01:36 PM
An interesting take on the fall of the sales market this year:
http://sports.espn.go.com/sports/horse/columns/story?columnist=finley_bill&id=4485200
The majority of breeders are at about the break even point when it comes to getting back their stud fees. If you own Summer Bird and he wins at least one more race this year, do you send him to stud at a low fee or do you bring him back to race? The days of incredible first year stud fees may be over for a while until the economy and industry get back to health. Summer Bird has nice breeding and a classic record on the track. Still I would guess that in this situation $20K stud fee would be generous. If you breed to 50 mares next year then you are getting $1M. Win in Dubai, a few others and return in the BC and you can make $6M by running the horse. This wasn't always the option for recent horses. They were worth more money off the track than on it.
Add all of that into the 8% reduction in the foal crop this year and the math gets even worse. No one can say just how many new foals will actually make it to the races but with decreases in crop size, racing dates, races run, we are looking at something that racing historians/enthusaists have been looking for - horses that race more with fewer opportunities which forces more competitive races whether they are stakes or claimers.
Everyone wants the stars to stay on the track. The downturn in breeding and sales prices may just be the best thing to happen in many years. Rachel and Summer Bird meet at CD next year in the BC? Even Ghosty might get excited.
http://sports.espn.go.com/sports/horse/columns/story?columnist=finley_bill&id=4485200
The majority of breeders are at about the break even point when it comes to getting back their stud fees. If you own Summer Bird and he wins at least one more race this year, do you send him to stud at a low fee or do you bring him back to race? The days of incredible first year stud fees may be over for a while until the economy and industry get back to health. Summer Bird has nice breeding and a classic record on the track. Still I would guess that in this situation $20K stud fee would be generous. If you breed to 50 mares next year then you are getting $1M. Win in Dubai, a few others and return in the BC and you can make $6M by running the horse. This wasn't always the option for recent horses. They were worth more money off the track than on it.
Add all of that into the 8% reduction in the foal crop this year and the math gets even worse. No one can say just how many new foals will actually make it to the races but with decreases in crop size, racing dates, races run, we are looking at something that racing historians/enthusaists have been looking for - horses that race more with fewer opportunities which forces more competitive races whether they are stakes or claimers.
Everyone wants the stars to stay on the track. The downturn in breeding and sales prices may just be the best thing to happen in many years. Rachel and Summer Bird meet at CD next year in the BC? Even Ghosty might get excited.