Belmont Picks

[cmoore]

Thursday, Sept . 17th

Race 1)..:6: Eltish Star..WP..Won on drop 2 races back..From last to first..No success on turf on Aug. 30th..Extra 1.5 furlongs today shouldn't hurt..

Race 2)..:5: Dressed to Win...Win Only..Should get great position early and run by leaders late..Also shortens up..

Race 3)..:1: Jardin..Win Only..The 2 and 5 will be out dueling. Jardin should be sitting 3rd and run by leaders late...5/2 would be a good price..

Race 4)..:3: Shrimp Dancer..Win Only..Kittens Joy has produced nothing but turf winners I believe..Not suprising with El Prado as the grand sire..Distance should be to his liking..

Race 5)..:4: Rapide One..WPS..Ran an even race in the mud in first start..Comes back with a bullet work..12-1 is a nice price on this Hood And Ladder runner...

Race 6)..:10: Khukuri..WPS..War Chant has produced the 2nd most turf wins in the last 3 years behind Smart Strike in this race..This lightly raced runner has the most upside.

Race 7)..:1: Karakorum Legend/:1a:City Sneakers...WP..Both with a 1st,2nd and 3rd in last 3 starts..Both shortening up..Maybe they run 1-2.

Race 8)..:2: Evolutionist..WPS..4 works in 27 days/Top trainer in turf wins the last 3 years..Was 2nd in last at the stretch running 1 3/16 before tiring against tougher company..
..........:8: Charlott Humor...WPS..This Distorted Humor runner trying turf for the first time. He was the only one who faced tougher company then the 2 in his last race. Garcia jumps off the 2 and gets on this 8..

Race 9)..:1: ComeBack..WIN ONLY...Has improved last 2 races..Should blow by this weak field late..

[RaceBookJoe]

Good luck with your picks...either way i really appreciate your comments/thoughts on why you made the pick. rbj

[cmoore]

Thursday, Sept . 17th

Race 1)..:6: Eltish Star..WP..Won on drop 2 races back..From last to first..No success on turf on Aug. 30th..Extra 1.5 furlongs today shouldn't hurt..

Race 2)..:5: Dressed to Win...Win Only..Should get great position early and run by leaders late..Also shortens up..

Race 3)..:1: Jardin..Win Only..The 2 and 5 will be out dueling. Jardin should be sitting 3rd and run by leaders late...5/2 would be a good price..

Race 4)..:3: Shrimp Dancer..Win Only..Kittens Joy has produced nothing but turf winners I believe..Not suprising with El Prado as the grand sire..Distance should be to his liking..

Race 5)..:4: Rapide One..WPS..Ran an even race in the mud in first start..Comes back with a bullet work..12-1 is a nice price on this Hood And Ladder runner...

Race 6)..:10: Khukuri..WPS..War Chant has produced the 2nd most turf wins in the last 3 years behind Smart Strike in this race..This lightly raced runner has the most upside.

Race 7)..:1: Karakorum Legend/:1a:City Sneakers...WP..Both with a 1st,2nd and 3rd in last 3 starts..Both shortening up..Maybe they run 1-2.

Race 8)..:2: Evolutionist..WPS..4 works in 27 days/Top trainer in turf wins the last 3 years..Was 2nd in last at the stretch running 1 3/16 before tiring against tougher company..
..........:8: Charlott Humor...WPS..This Distorted Humor runner trying turf for the first time. He was the only one who faced tougher company then the 2 in his last race. Garcia jumps off the 2 and gets on this 8..

Race 9)..:1: ComeBack..WIN ONLY...Has improved last 2 races..Should blow by this weak field late..

Race 1)..:6: Eltish Star..wp..3rd

Race 2)..:5: Dressed to win..Win Only..3rd

Race 3)..:1: Jardin..Win Only.. 1st..$3.70 $2.40 $2.10

Race 4)..:3: Shrimp Dancer..Win Only..1st..$4.90 $2.70 $2.40

Race 5)..:4: Rapide..wps..2nd..$6.80 $3.90

Race 6)..:10:Khukuri..wps..OUT

Race 7)..:1: Karakorum Legend..wp..3rd

Race 8)..:2: Evolutionist..WPS..2nd..$11.40 $5.30
............:8: Charlott Humor..WPS..OUT

Race 9)..:1:ComeBack...Win Only..OUT

Won $36.00
Bet $40.00
-$4.00

[cmoore]

Race 1)..:6: Slevin..Win Only..Has ran 2nd last 3 starts but last 2 speed figures are tops compared to field..

Race 2)..:3: Jet On Home..WP..Couldn't get lead in last against much tougher company..Should control pace today and hopefully wire this field. A ML of 5-1 is a gift..Likely will drop..

Race 3)..:2: Midshipman..Win Only..We'll find out if he can close on the dirt like he has on the synthetic..

Race 4)..:7: French Song..WPS..She set some very fast pace figures on July 23rd with blinkers on for the second time before tiring and still hanging on to 4th..The race shape for that race was a +33 +26..Ran more of an even race in last on the dirt..Tries turf again today and shouldn't have much to battle on the front end early..

Race 5)..:3: Good Going Darl..WPS..Ran well in 1st start of 2009 on July 24th even after checking break and running wide..2 of 4 came back and won out of the July 24th race..

Race 6)..:7: Golden Artemis...WIN Only...Should fire out for lead..Either she wires the field or completely runs out imo..

Race 7)..:3: Unique Tune..WPS..A Concorde's Tune first timer starter who gets the rail..Can't pass up at 12-1..

Race 8)..:2: Mr. Universe..WPS...Shortens up in last and shows much more early speed then any of his last 9 starts..Will likely resort to off the pace tactics today with the 7 E/EP style runners in race..

Race 9)..:5: Sachem Road...WP...6 works in 43 days..Trainer David Donk is 2nd in turf wins the last 3 years behind Dutrow. Donk also gets a 289 layoff figure off Layoffs of 60+ days..100 being the average..

[cmoore]

Race 1)..:6: Slevin..Win Only..Has ran 2nd last 3 starts but last 2 speed figures are tops compared to field..

Race 2)..:3: Jet On Home..WP..Couldn't get lead in last against much tougher company..Should control pace today and hopefully wire this field. A ML of 5-1 is a gift..Likely will drop..

Race 3)..:2: Midshipman..Win Only..We'll find out if he can close on the dirt like he has on the synthetic..

Race 4)..:7: French Song..WPS..She set some very fast pace figures on July 23rd with blinkers on for the second time before tiring and still hanging on to 4th..The race shape for that race was a +33 +26..Ran more of an even race in last on the dirt..Tries turf again today and shouldn't have much to battle on the front end early..

Race 5)..:3: Good Going Darl..WPS..Ran well in 1st start of 2009 on July 24th even after checking break and running wide..2 of 4 came back and won out of the July 24th race..

Race 6)..:7: Golden Artemis...WIN Only...Should fire out for lead..Either she wires the field or completely runs out imo..

Race 7)..:3: Unique Tune..WPS..A Concorde's Tune first timer starter who gets the rail..Can't pass up at 12-1..

Race 8)..:2: Mr. Universe..WPS...Shortens up in last and shows much more early speed then any of his last 9 starts..Will likely resort to off the pace tactics today with the 7 E/EP style runners in race..

Race 9)..:5: Sachem Road...WP...6 works in 43 days..Trainer David Donk is 2nd in turf wins the last 3 years behind Dutrow. Donk also gets a 289 layoff figure off Layoffs of 60+ days..100 being the average..

Race 1)..:6: Slevin..Win Only...Won $2.80

Race 2)..:3: Jet On Home..WP..3rd

Race 3)..:2: Midshipman..Win Only...Won $5.70

Race 4)..:7: French Song..WPS...OUT

Race 5)..Race 5)..:3: Good Going Darl..WPS...OUT

Race 6)..:7: Golden Artemis..SCRATCHED

Race 7)..:3: Unique Tune..WPS....OUT

Race 8)..:2: Mr. Universe..WPS...out

Race 9)..:5: Sachem Road...WP...2ND $4.20


Won $12.70
Bet $36.00
-$23.30

[cmoore]

Race 1)..:10: Winning Grievance..WPS..Breedingwinners race reports show a 444 sire layoff figure and a 228 trainer layoff figure..This Read The Footnotes runner showed a 96 2nd call pace figure in last...Was within a length at stretch before tiring..Should improve in 3rd career start and shows nice work tab..The two ML favorites in this race look vunerable..

Race 2)..:4: Quiet All American..Win only..An impressive :59.6 5F work out of the gate on Sept. 14th. Sires AWD is the 2nd lowest at 6.2 furlongs..Just one tenth of a furlong higher then the 3's sire..

Race 3)..:5: Chief Export...Win Only..Has a class advantage over fields last 2 races except for the nines 2nd race back..Has ran ITM last 6 of 8 with 2 wins..Plus the ML favorite has a case of seconditis this year..

Race 4)..:7: Rutherienne...No Bet...Possibly use in a DD or pick 3 bet. She would have to run her worst race to get beat here..

Race 5)..:2: Simple Western...WP..The ML of 8-1 probably represents the 0 for 56 trainer record..She ran 4 points above par in last. The one beat her in that race but came back and didn't fire at 6/5..Top jock aboard is a positive..Western Expression has produced 45 turf wins the last 3 years. Second only to Chester House..Also the sire has the most wins at this purse level of 40k or higher..

Race 6)..:11: Rocketing Returns..WPS...This move to stretch out and run on the turf doesn't make sense at first glance..But GONE WEST is the top sire at this distance on the turf. The trainer Seth Benzel has only 11 wins on the turf in the last 3 years, but 9 of those at this distance..That's an 82% clip..Should get lead or be very close up front..

Race 7)..:6: Victory March..WPS..Blinkers off today so ignore last start..War Chant has produced the most turf wins over the last 3 years..Jerkens has 41% of his 22 turf wins at this distance which is tops..
15-1 ML is very appealing..

Race 8)..:4: Grand Rapport...WPS..Digging deep on this one..A winner in last against claimers from 16 lengths back in the mud..Will have tons of speed to run at today.. Win chances are slim but a piece is possible..

Race 9)..:5:Heavenly Debby..WPS..Won convingly in last on the move up in MSW according to the race ratings..Drew off by 3 lengths..Pulpit number one at this distance and with the added 1/2 furlong today..Improvement likely..10-1 ML is a great price..

Race 10)..:3: Gamblin Fever..WPS..Highest speed rating in last at an 1/8th longer distance..Has ran 4 of 6 itm on the turf. At Belmont he's got a win and a 3rd in 3 starts..If he runs some where between his last 2 starts..He's got a chance at a big price..

[cees with dees]

I love your enthusiasm and really appreciate you posting your comments along with your selections rather than just posting numbers.
Nice job and keep em' coming. And by the way, although I disagree with some of your picks, your reasoning behind them is sound and I love your creativity at finding some big prices.
I definitely agree with Simple Western and am not bothered by the 0-fer stats because probably 99% of them were overmatched and or just bad horses. This one has ability and Pat Quick can get the job done.
I have used Gamblin FEver on several occasions and he always runs the same race. Needs it to fall apart for best chance but you gotta love a horse like this.
I don't think he can win today but hey, he'll be long and he'll be closing.
Good luck today.
Ben

[cmoore]

Race 1)..:10: Winning Grievance..WPS..Breedingwinners race reports show a 444 sire layoff figure and a 228 trainer layoff figure..This Read The Footnotes runner showed a 96 2nd call pace figure in last...Was within a length at stretch before tiring..Should improve in 3rd career start and shows nice work tab..The two ML favorites in this race look vunerable..

Race 2)..:4: Quiet All American..Win only..An impressive :59.6 5F work out of the gate on Sept. 14th. Sires AWD is the 2nd lowest at 6.2 furlongs..Just one tenth of a furlong higher then the 3's sire..

Race 3)..:5: Chief Export...Win Only..Has a class advantage over fields last 2 races except for the nines 2nd race back..Has ran ITM last 6 of 8 with 2 wins..Plus the ML favorite has a case of seconditis this year..

Race 4)..:7: Rutherienne...No Bet...Possibly use in a DD or pick 3 bet. She would have to run her worst race to get beat here..

Race 5)..:2: Simple Western...WP..The ML of 8-1 probably represents the 0 for 56 trainer record..She ran 4 points above par in last. The one beat her in that race but came back and didn't fire at 6/5..Top jock aboard is a positive..Western Expression has produced 45 turf wins the last 3 years. Second only to Chester House..Also the sire has the most wins at this purse level of 40k or higher..

Race 6)..:11: Rocketing Returns..WPS...This move to stretch out and run on the turf doesn't make sense at first glance..But GONE WEST is the top sire at this distance on the turf. The trainer Seth Benzel has only 11 wins on the turf in the last 3 years, but 9 of those at this distance..That's an 82% clip..Should get lead or be very close up front..

Race 7)..:6: Victory March..WPS..Blinkers off today so ignore last start..War Chant has produced the most turf wins over the last 3 years..Jerkens has 41% of his 22 turf wins at this distance which is tops..
15-1 ML is very appealing..

Race 8)..:4: Grand Rapport...WPS..Digging deep on this one..A winner in last against claimers from 16 lengths back in the mud..Will have tons of speed to run at today.. Win chances are slim but a piece is possible..

Race 9)..:5:Heavenly Debby..WPS..Won convingly in last on the move up in MSW according to the race ratings..Drew off by 3 lengths..Pulpit number one at this distance and with the added 1/2 furlong today..Improvement likely..10-1 ML is a great price..

Race 10)..:3: Gamblin Fever..WPS..Highest speed rating in last at an 1/8th longer distance..Has ran 4 of 6 itm on the turf. At Belmont he's got a win and a 3rd in 3 starts..If he runs some where between his last 2 starts..He's got a chance at a big price..

Race 1)..:10: Winning Grievance..WPS...out

Race 2)..:4: Quiet All American..Win only...3rd

Race 3)..:5: Chief Export...Win Only...out

Race 4)..:7: Rutherienne...No Bet

Race 5)..:2: Simple Western...WP..Won $14.60 $6.90 $4.20

Race 6)..Race 6)..:11: Rocketing Returns..WPS...out

Race 7)..:6: Victory March..WPS...2nd $14.80 $8.60..He actually lost ground halfway down the stretch and came back to get 2nd..

Race 8)..:4: Grand Rapport...WPS...out....Not the wisest bet I've ever made..

Race 9)..:5:Heavenly Debby..WPS...out

Race 10)..:3: Gamblin Fever..WPS...4th..

Won $44.90
Bet $44.00
+0.90.....:bang:

[cmoore]

Race 1)..:7: Isti Bee..WP..Closed with a rush in last going a mile and a half..It shows a breezing workout on the same day as his last race..Kind of odd..One more thing..The sires AWD is 16.0 furlongs..

Race 2)..:3: Vaporize..Win only..Shows the fastest pace figure to the 4 furlong mark...Draws her best post and shortens up a half furlong..The one to catch.

Race 3)..:7: Freddy The Cap...WPS..Won 2 races back on the front going a mile and an 1/8th..Moves up in class in last and tries to get the lead running a 94 E1 and E2 pace figure..Just couldn't get the lead...I think today he can get to the front end..Only running a mile today..Chance at a big price..

Race 4)..:1: Rebellious Chic..WP..Showed good early speed in 1st career start on a sloppy track..Switches to turf and battles to the stretch..Shortens back up today and really not much early speed in race..Chad Brown gets 38% winners of 16 tries from route to sprint..

Race 5)..:4: Book..WPS..Ignore last race on the slop..Two races back he chased a very fast pace against much tougher company..Today there's no early speed..Book could get an easy lead and run a :25 and :50 and change and possibly wire this field. Longest shot on the board on the front end all by himself..You gotta love it..One more thing..Trainer has 3 of 11 winners at this distance..

Race 6)..:6: Asphalt..WP..This War Chant runner ran an even race on the dirt. He shows a clocker special work..1/82 for the week for 2 year olds on Sept 14th.

Race 7)..:6: Pop Panebianco..WPS..Has led or 2nd last 5 races at the 1st and 2nd calls..Two races back he ran a 97 speed rating. Anywhere close to that and he wins today. Remember, this is on the inner track and they start on the turn.

Race 8)..:8: Haka..WP..Closed fast in only turf race into a very slow pace. Pace won't be slow today. She's been facing tougher company and ran 2nd in both races..4-1 is a great price..Let's hope she stays that high..

Race 9)..:7: Nethanic Kat..Win only..Use in DD and pick 3's..Huge class advantage last 3 races..

Race 10)..:4: Exhi..WP..Absolutley no early speed in race except for this Maria's Mon runner..Faced a very tough 115 race rated field in last and got the lead. Switches to turf and should walk to the lead and set very slow fractions..

[cmoore]

Race 1)..:7: Isti Bee..WP..Closed with a rush in last going a mile and a half..It shows a breezing workout on the same day as his last race..Kind of odd..One more thing..The sires AWD is 16.0 furlongs..

Race 2)..:3: Vaporize..Win only..Shows the fastest pace figure to the 4 furlong mark...Draws her best post and shortens up a half furlong..The one to catch.

Race 3)..:7: Freddy The Cap...WPS..Won 2 races back on the front going a mile and an 1/8th..Moves up in class in last and tries to get the lead running a 94 E1 and E2 pace figure..Just couldn't get the lead...I think today he can get to the front end..Only running a mile today..Chance at a big price..

Race 4)..:1: Rebellious Chic..WP..Showed good early speed in 1st career start on a sloppy track..Switches to turf and battles to the stretch..Shortens back up today and really not much early speed in race..Chad Brown gets 38% winners of 16 tries from route to sprint..

Race 5)..:4: Book..WPS..Ignore last race on the slop..Two races back he chased a very fast pace against much tougher company..Today there's no early speed..Book could get an easy lead and run a :25 and :50 and change and possibly wire this field. Longest shot on the board on the front end all by himself..You gotta love it..One more thing..Trainer has 3 of 11 winners at this distance..

Race 6)..:6: Asphalt..WP..This War Chant runner ran an even race on the dirt. He shows a clocker special work..1/82 for the week for 2 year olds on Sept 14th.

Race 7)..:6: Pop Panebianco..WPS..Has led or 2nd last 5 races at the 1st and 2nd calls..Two races back he ran a 97 speed rating. Anywhere close to that and he wins today. Remember, this is on the inner track and they start on the turn.

Race 8)..:8: Haka..WP..Closed fast in only turf race into a very slow pace. Pace won't be slow today. She's been facing tougher company and ran 2nd in both races..4-1 is a great price..Let's hope she stays that high..

Race 9)..:7: Nethanic Kat..Win only..Use in DD and pick 3's..Huge class advantage last 3 races..

Race 10)..:4: Exhi..WP..Absolutley no early speed in race except for this Maria's Mon runner..Faced a very tough 115 race rated field in last and got the lead. Switches to turf and should walk to the lead and set very slow fractions..

Race 1)..:7: Isti Bee..WP...out

Race 2)..:3: Vaporize..Win only...out

Race 3)..:7: Freddy The Cap...WPS....SCRATCHED

Race 4)..:1: Rebellious Chic..WP....3rd

Race 5)..:4: Book..WPS...4th...ran a good race for an 85-1 shot..Was 2nd at top of the stretch..Just didn't have enough to finish..

Race 6)..:6: Asphalt..WP.. WON $7.20 $4.80 $4.30

Race 7)..:6: Pop Panebianco..WPS..4th..I took the wrong early speed in this one..The 2 gets the lead and hangs onto 2nd at 31-1..

Race 8)..:8: Haka..WP...3rd

Race 9)..:7: Nethanic Kat..Win only...out

Race 10)..:4: Exhi..WP...WON $10.40 $4.50 $3.20

Bet $36.00
Won $26.90
-$9.10

[cmoore]

Week ending results at Belmont..Wednesdays picks were in a thread dated for that day..After that, I started a different thread and kept all picks together..

Wednesday.Sept. 16th..........+$31.20
Thursday....Sept. 17th..........-$04.00
Friday........Sept. 18th..........-$23.30
Saturday....Sept. 19th.........+$00.90
Sunday......Sept. 20th.........-$09.10
......................................-$04.30

All posted picks are stated wps, wp or just a win bet...ML odds and odds I think they will go off at decide the bet..There was one show payout of $10.60 on the 16th that I didn't bet..Odds went up higher then I thought..

Win Bets .......42.....8 won............-$28.50
Place Bets......30.....10 placed...... +$31.70
Show Bets.....19......5 showed...... -$07.50
...............................................-$04.30

Not one of my long shots over 6-1 won a race and I still just about broke even..

[cees with dees]

Book did run really well for an 85*1 shot especially being on a somewhat good pace.
Nice pick in the last. I thought he had a shot and used him but ended up really keying on the 7 who had a tough tough trip for the hottest trainer on the grounds.
See you Wednesday.
Ben

[cmoore]

Along with the past performances. I also use the race reports at breedingwinners.com..A totally free site..

Race 1)..:1: Richmond..WP..This Smarty Jones runner won easily at Monmouth in his first start. According to the race reports...The sire, broodmare sire and trainer all get layoff figures of 175, 163 and 231 off 37-60 days off..Average figure is a 100..I know he's making a big move up today but he's in the top 2 in the purse level in all 3 reports....Should go off between 5 and 10-1..
.......:3: No Questions..WPS..If there's a speed duel. It could set up for this P style runner..Shortening up and shows a very good work on Sept. 1st..

One more note about the 7 on the sire and broodmare sire race report..
Cuvee runners haven't won at a purse level of 41K or higher yet in this race type out of the 16 wins..On the broodmare sire side..Relaunch has 138 wins and only 9% have won at a purse level of 41k or higher..As the likely favorite..I can't back knowing that info..

Race 2)..:7: Kettle Won..Turf only...WPS..Ignore the August 8th race..He broke dead last and was out of it early..But he ran a respectable 4th at 16-1 while running a little closer towards the front end 2 races back. With this being on the inner turf. I think Garcia will send him early. He ran a good race on Nov. 9th and July 16th last year off similar layoffs...

Race 3)..:5: War Echo..Win only..She got a 122 class rating in last..3 of 7 runners came back and won from that race..Currently 3rd choice according to the ML odds..Let's hope she stays 3rd choice..

Race 4)..:3: Fenway Faithful.....No bet..A likley 3/5 favorite..I'll possibly use in DD and pick 3's..Ran 6 points above par in 1st career start..Draws the rail today and will likely not have any early pressure..

Race 5)..:13: Don'tQuitYourDayJob...WP..If he draws in..This Elusive Quality runner looks to be in good form by his last 2 works..Should get the lead or sit behind the 3 early..
............:1: Vertical Flight..WP..Only if the 13 doesn't draw in...He drew the 7 and 8 post last 2. Has been 3 wide last 3 races..With the lack of early speed. He should get a great trip..

Race 6)..:6: Principesa Heather..WPS..Going against the 1..not crazy about the 48 days off. Kimmel not very good off 46-90 day layoffs..Princepesa has 7 works in 50 days..A 12k purchase but running in 50k..That's a good sign..Kafwain has produced 6 of 22 winners 1st time out for two year olds the last 3 years..Third in SPI at 1.61..

Race 7)..:1:Stephen's Even..WPS...8-1 is a great price..Ran a 70 speed rating against equal company compared to what the 6 and 8 faced..I think the 5,6,8 and 9 could mix it up early...This will set it up for the one to close late..The 6 and 8 both came off layoffs and didn't fire a lick. I'll let them have'em at short prices..

Race 8)..:9:Le Grand Cru..WPS..Has faced the toughest company last 2 races..Was overmatched 2 races back and settled behind leaders. Tired in last going a mile and an 8th after leading for about 7 furlongs...This Dynaformer runner is back on the turf and shortening up..Four works in 27 days. Jerkins gets a 22% clip out of 27 turf wins at this distance..The only negative is he gets a 0 layoff figure off 37-60 days..But I'll go with the positives over the 1 negative...

Race 9)..:2: Stormie Gray..WP..Just ran her best race off a 57 day layoff..Ran 4 points above par at a mile..Shortens up 2 furlongs today..Should fire out for lead.

[cmoore]

Along with the past performances. I also use the race reports at breedingwinners.com..A totally free site..

Race 1)..:1: Richmond..WP..This Smarty Jones runner won easily at Monmouth in his first start. According to the race reports...The sire, broodmare sire and trainer all get layoff figures of 175, 163 and 231 off 37-60 days off..Average figure is a 100..I know he's making a big move up today but he's in the top 2 in the purse level in all 3 reports....Should go off between 5 and 10-1..
.......:3: No Questions..WPS..If there's a speed duel. It could set up for this P style runner..Shortening up and shows a very good work on Sept. 1st..

One more note about the 7 on the sire and broodmare sire race report..
Cuvee runners haven't won at a purse level of 41K or higher yet in this race type out of the 16 wins..On the broodmare sire side..Relaunch has 138 wins and only 9% have won at a purse level of 41k or higher..As the likely favorite..I can't back knowing that info..

Race 2)..:7: Kettle Won..Turf only...WPS..Ignore the August 8th race..He broke dead last and was out of it early..But he ran a respectable 4th at 16-1 while running a little closer towards the front end 2 races back. With this being on the inner turf. I think Garcia will send him early. He ran a good race on Nov. 9th and July 16th last year off similar layoffs...

Race 3)..:5: War Echo..Win only..She got a 122 class rating in last..3 of 7 runners came back and won from that race..Currently 3rd choice according to the ML odds..Let's hope she stays 3rd choice..

Race 4)..:3: Fenway Faithful.....No bet..A likley 3/5 favorite..I'll possibly use in DD and pick 3's..Ran 6 points above par in 1st career start..Draws the rail today and will likely not have any early pressure..

Race 5)..:13: Don'tQuitYourDayJob...WP..If he draws in..This Elusive Quality runner looks to be in good form by his last 2 works..Should get the lead or sit behind the 3 early..
............:1: Vertical Flight..WP..Only if the 13 doesn't draw in...He drew the 7 and 8 post last 2. Has been 3 wide last 3 races..With the lack of early speed. He should get a great trip..

Race 6)..:6: Principesa Heather..WPS..Going against the 1..not crazy about the 48 days off. Kimmel not very good off 46-90 day layoffs..Princepesa has 7 works in 50 days..A 12k purchase but running in 50k..That's a good sign..Kafwain has produced 6 of 22 winners 1st time out for two year olds the last 3 years..Third in SPI at 1.61..

Race 7)..:1:Stephen's Even..WPS...8-1 is a great price..Ran a 70 speed rating against equal company compared to what the 6 and 8 faced..I think the 5,6,8 and 9 could mix it up early...This will set it up for the one to close late..The 6 and 8 both came off layoffs and didn't fire a lick. I'll let them have'em at short prices..

Race 8)..:9:Le Grand Cru..WPS..Has faced the toughest company last 2 races..Was overmatched 2 races back and settled behind leaders. Tired in last going a mile and an 8th after leading for about 7 furlongs...This Dynaformer runner is back on the turf and shortening up..Four works in 27 days. Jerkins gets a 22% clip out of 27 turf wins at this distance..The only negative is he gets a 0 layoff figure off 37-60 days..But I'll go with the positives over the 1 negative...

Race 9)..:2: Stormie Gray..WP..Just ran her best race off a 57 day layoff..Ran 4 points above par at a mile..Shortens up 2 furlongs today..Should fire out for lead.

Race 1)..:1: Richmond..WP.......................3rd...
.............:3: No Questions..WPS.................out

Race 2)..:7: Kettle Won..Turf only...WPS....out..Got an easy lead but that was about it..

Race 3)..:5: War Echo..Win only

Race 4)..:3: Fenway Faithful.....No bet......Held off the nine by a neck.

Race 5)..:13: Don'tQuitYourDayJob...WP.......SCRATCHED
............:1: Vertical Flight..WP..Settled on the rail and showed nothing. Desormeaux/Mott Williams finally hook up and get a win with the 10 after 13 tries at the meet.

Race 6)..:6: Principesa Heather..WPS..Broke dead last..Got up to 3rd then backed up..

Race 7)..:1:Stephen's Even..WPS....2nd $5.00 3.10...Got bet down with the 6 being scratched...Prado looked to be home free. But he veered in then back out down the stretch..That might of cost him the race..Lost by a neck.

Race 8)..:9:Le Grand Cru..WPS...Had a perfect trip settling behind the hot pace up front. Got passed by 2 runners that were 8th and 9th at the 1/4 pole. I guess he was to close to the pace..

Race 9)..:2: Stormie Gray..WP..SCRATCHED

Well it was a bad day to say the least..7 of 9 races paid $6.70 or less to win..14 of 18 place payouts paid $5.00 or less..One thing I've learned today is don't bet Jerkins runners 37-60 days away.

Bet...$40.00
Won.$08.10
.....-$31.90..YIKES!!!!!

[cmoore]

Race 1)..:9: Close to the Vest...WPS..Should fire out for the lead again today..ITM 3 of 4 at Belmont..ITM 4 of 5 on the turf..Comes back in 7 days and shortens up a furlong..

Race 2)..:7: Mr. Universe...WPS...Ranks 1st in 11 categories on my procaps software. He has a 10 point pace advantage to the first and second call in last. Five works in 35 days..Blinkers off today..Should walk to an easy lead today..Alderban runners above average at this distance (6.5 to 7.5 furlongs).

Race 3)..:4:Weathered...No Bet..Battled in last on the front end against a 118.7 race rating. That's over 4.5 points tougher then the field faced..A likely 2/5 favorite..

Race 4)..:5: Dr Paula Moynahan..WP..This Johannesburg filly has shown some early speed in both starts..Should be able to clear all inside of her easily..A nice 4F work on Sept. 4th..:48...6/40..

Race 5)..:3: Kambo Man..WPS..Chased 4 wide in the mud in last against tougher company..Ranked 1st in 12 categories on my procaps software..Could this be Peter Chins 1st victory in his 60th try this year..It's worth a bet at high odds when your getting a Yonaguska runner who has 6 wins in 22 starts.

Race 6)..:8: Cleric..Win Only..Ran 3 points above par in 1st career start..The 52 day layoff is questionable..But the move up in claiming price trumps it..Ice cold Prado off..Luke warm Castellano aboard..

Race 7)..:3: Quiet Alice..No Bet..Looks like the one to beat..Draws inside in a paceless race and shortens up..Will probably go off at 8/5 or less..

Race 8)..:9: West Gold...WPS..Moves up in last off a 125 day layoff and finishes 2nd, only 2 points below par. That race at Monmouth was a 114.3 race rating. It was only a 12.5k race but 2nd in race rating behind the 7..The 7 is 1 for his last 20 and a seconditis runner. 20-1 on this 9 is an OVERLAY!!!!

Race 9)..:3: Roma Di Notte...WPS..Went from 10th to 4th in the last 1.5 furlongs at 48-1..Sire, Broodmare sire and trainer get layoff figures of 146, 180 and 218. The 1,5 and 10 could all mix it up early and set it up for this p style runner. The sire Lycius gets 24% winners at this distance. That's 4x the average and tops in this field..

[cmoore]

Race 1)..:9: Close to the Vest...WPS..Should fire out for the lead again today..ITM 3 of 4 at Belmont..ITM 4 of 5 on the turf..Comes back in 7 days and shortens up a furlong..

Race 2)..:7: Mr. Universe...WPS...Ranks 1st in 11 categories on my procaps software. He has a 10 point pace advantage to the first and second call in last. Five works in 35 days..Blinkers off today..Should walk to an easy lead today..Alderban runners above average at this distance (6.5 to 7.5 furlongs).

Race 3)..:4:Weathered...No Bet..Battled in last on the front end against a 118.7 race rating. That's over 4.5 points tougher then the field faced..A likely 2/5 favorite..

Race 4)..:5: Dr Paula Moynahan..WP..This Johannesburg filly has shown some early speed in both starts..Should be able to clear all inside of her easily..A nice 4F work on Sept. 4th..:48...6/40..

Race 5)..:3: Kambo Man..WPS..Chased 4 wide in the mud in last against tougher company..Ranked 1st in 12 categories on my procaps software..Could this be Peter Chins 1st victory in his 60th try this year..It's worth a bet at high odds when your getting a Yonaguska runner who has 6 wins in 22 starts.

Race 6)..:8: Cleric..Win Only..Ran 3 points above par in 1st career start..The 52 day layoff is questionable..But the move up in claiming price trumps it..Ice cold Prado off..Luke warm Castellano aboard..

Race 7)..:3: Quiet Alice..No Bet..Looks like the one to beat..Draws inside in a paceless race and shortens up..Will probably go off at 8/5 or less..

Race 8)..:9: West Gold...WPS..Moves up in last off a 125 day layoff and finishes 2nd, only 2 points below par. That race at Monmouth was a 114.3 race rating. It was only a 12.5k race but 2nd in race rating behind the 7..The 7 is 1 for his last 20 and a seconditis runner. 20-1 on this 9 is an OVERLAY!!!!

Race 9)..:3: Roma Di Notte...WPS..Went from 10th to 4th in the last 1.5 furlongs at 48-1..Sire, Broodmare sire and trainer get layoff figures of 146, 180 and 218. The 1,5 and 10 could all mix it up early and set it up for this p style runner. The sire Lycius gets 24% winners at this distance. That's 4x the average and tops in this field..

Race 1)..:9: Close to the Vest...WPS....WON.....13.20.....6.40....5.00

Race 2)..:7: Mr. Universe...WPS.........SCRATCHED

Race 3)..:4:Weathered...No Bet...Barely won at 3/5...

Race 4)..:5: Dr Paula Moynahan..WP...2nd.......4.50......3.40..Led late but got caught by the favorite in the last 50 yards or so..

Race 5)..:3: Kambo Man..WPS...........3rd......6.20.....Got pressed by Raceland and weekend late. But with the 41-1 shot running 2nd..We got our money back in the show pool..

Race 6)..:8: Cleric..Win Only.....OUT... I knew the time off was suspicious. The move up in claiming price kind of confused things. I should of looked elswhere knowing this one would be bet down..

Race 7)..:3: Quiet Alice..No Bet...Out..the 2nd choice won..So didn't miss anything..

Race 8)..:9: West Gold...WPS...4th..Got out fast and cleared all on his inside..But the 10 and 1a outside of him broke out on top..He got a perfect trip on the rail sitting 3rd. Ran well for a 36-1 shot..Will definitely watch for next time out..

Race 9)..:3: Roma Di Notte...WPS....SCRATCHED

WON....$35.30
BET.....$24.00
+$11.20

[cmoore]

Race 1)..:9: Manhattan Miss...WPS..This Kafwain runner showed good early speed in 1st career start..I think she can go faster if needed to get the lead today. She comes back with a very good breezing workout at AQU on Sept. 21st. Will need to improve on the move up. But will be a big price..

Race 2)..:3: On Vacation...WP..Dueled with winner in last going 7 furlongs with blinkers on for the first time..Last race was a key race..2 of 2 horses came back and won from that Aug. 22nd race..AWD for Harlan's Holiday runners is 7.0 furlongs..That's 3rd highest behind sires of the 4 and 5..They both show no early speed and will have there work cut out for them early..AWD for the 2's sires offspring is 5.4 furlongs. Likely to track behind the 2 early and that 7.0 furlong fig to kick in late..

Race 3)..:1: First Flute...Win Only..Ran a 96, 89 early E1 and E2 pace figure in last on the slop..That's a 10 point speed advantage to the 1st call compared to fields best 1st call pace figure in there last 3 races..Second time Lasix today. She stretches out 1.5 furlongs..Bowman's Band runners have won at this distance 4x in the 8 winners it shows in this race type..

Race 4)..:2: Deanaallen'skitten..Win Only..Race report layoff figures for Kitten's Joy first timers is a whopping 798...Chad Brown with first timers is 355..Average is 100 for both..Spi (sire production index..this is the average earnings of all north American sires) for Kitten's Joys offspring is already at 3.52...That's 3.5x the national average..That's a very high spi when this sire has only produced 10 turf winners so far.

Race 5)..:1: Starforaday...WP..Has won his last 2 easily going 6 wide in both. Halfway down the stretch he just glides home. According to the race shapes. He's been closing into a slower then average pace. That will be unlikely today..The 3,5 and 7 could mix it up early..All three are coming off extended layoffs..Which one is in top form is a toss up..Going with the 2nd longest shot on the board..Getty UP!!!!

Race 6)..:1: John's Pic...WPS...Broke out fast in last from the 12 post to get a commanding lead. Led for a little over 6 furlongs before getting caught..Now that was with blinkers on for the first time..His final speed rating is 2nd highest last time out. His runstyle is listed a S style..Well it wasn't with blinkers on..

Race 7)..:7: Burns Up The Track...WPS..Ran a better race on the turf 2 races back on Aug. 14th..Comes back in just 13 days and doesn't run as well. Now he's been off almost a month and will likely get an easy lead today..The only other early speed in the race is the 4..He's had nothing but problems his last 3 races..Bumped, hit gate and broke slow..With another easy lead and well rested. He just might be able to wire this field. Or at least hit the board at a big price..

Race 8)..:4: Princess Maura...WPS..Her last 2 turf sprints. She's been right there in the mix...I think she can get the lead today and hold them off on the inner turf course..This one mohegan Sky has ran against tougher..But at a over bet price and a record of 1 win in 11 starts in the last 2 years..Got to go against..

Race 9)..:1: or :5: should take this at a short price..No Bet..Use in DD, pick 3'and 4's..

[JustRalph]

Race 1)..:9: Manhattan Miss...WPS..This Kafwain runner showed good early speed in 1st career start..I think she can go faster if needed to get the lead today. She comes back with a very good breezing workout at AQU on Sept. 21st. Will need to improve on the move up. But will be a big price..


My Software loves this one......but also warns me about 2nd out possible let down. Interesting......first Belmont card I have looked at in a while......looks like it could be fun

[cmoore]

Race 1)..:9: Manhattan Miss...WPS..This Kafwain runner showed good early speed in 1st career start..I think she can go faster if needed to get the lead today. She comes back with a very good breezing workout at AQU on Sept. 21st. Will need to improve on the move up. But will be a big price..

Race 2)..:3: On Vacation...WP..Dueled with winner in last going 7 furlongs with blinkers on for the first time..Last race was a key race..2 of 2 horses came back and won from that Aug. 22nd race..AWD for Harlan's Holiday runners is 7.0 furlongs..That's 3rd highest behind sires of the 4 and 5..They both show no early speed and will have there work cut out for them early..AWD for the 2's sires offspring is 5.4 furlongs. Likely to track behind the 2 early and that 7.0 furlong fig to kick in late..

Race 3)..:1: First Flute...Win Only..Ran a 96, 89 early E1 and E2 pace figure in last on the slop..That's a 10 point speed advantage to the 1st call compared to fields best 1st call pace figure in there last 3 races..Second time Lasix today. She stretches out 1.5 furlongs..Bowman's Band runners have won at this distance 4x in the 8 winners it shows in this race type..

Race 4)..:2: Deanaallen'skitten..Win Only..Race report layoff figures for Kitten's Joy first timers is a whopping 798...Chad Brown with first timers is 355..Average is 100 for both..Spi (sire production index..this is the average earnings of all north American sires) for Kitten's Joys offspring is already at 3.52...That's 3.5x the national average..That's a very high spi when this sire has only produced 10 turf winners so far.

Race 5)..:1: Starforaday...WP..Has won his last 2 easily going 6 wide in both. Halfway down the stretch he just glides home. According to the race shapes. He's been closing into a slower then average pace. That will be unlikely today..The 3,5 and 7 could mix it up early..All three are coming off extended layoffs..Which one is in top form is a toss up..Going with the 2nd longest shot on the board..Getty UP!!!!

Race 6)..:1: John's Pic...WPS...Broke out fast in last from the 12 post to get a commanding lead. Led for a little over 6 furlongs before getting caught..Now that was with blinkers on for the first time..His final speed rating is 2nd highest last time out. His runstyle is listed a S style..Well it wasn't with blinkers on..

Race 7)..:7: Burns Up The Track...WPS..Ran a better race on the turf 2 races back on Aug. 14th..Comes back in just 13 days and doesn't run as well. Now he's been off almost a month and will likely get an easy lead today..The only other early speed in the race is the 4..He's had nothing but problems his last 3 races..Bumped, hit gate and broke slow..With another easy lead and well rested. He just might be able to wire this field. Or at least hit the board at a big price..

Race 8)..:4: Princess Maura...WPS..Her last 2 turf sprints. She's been right there in the mix...I think she can get the lead today and hold them off on the inner turf course..This one mohegan Sky has ran against tougher..But at a over bet price and a record of 1 win in 11 starts in the last 2 years..Got to go against..

Race 9)..:1: or :5: should take this at a short price..No Bet..Use in DD, pick 3'and 4's..

Race 1)..:9: Manhattan Miss...WPS.........................out

Race 2)..:3: On Vacation...WP............................2nd 5.40

Race 3)..:1: First Flute...Win Only.......................3rd

Race 4)..:2: Deanaallen'skitten..Win Only.............WON..3.20...The other entry Lisa's Kitten wins instead...Deanallen'skitten finished 3rd..

Race 5)..:1: Starforaday...WP..............................3rd. Dominguez tried to save ground around the turn and it cost him 2nd place imo..This horse has ran his best going wide and really turning it on down the middle of the track..He had to change course just a little when running into traffic. Lost 2nd place by a nose. Things aren't going my way so far..

Race 6)..:1: John's Pic...WPS...............................out

Race 7)..:7: Burns Up The Track...WPS.................out..checked at the start and broke dead last after showing early speed in his 2 previous starts..

Race 8)..:4: Princess Maura...WPS....Scratched after breaking through the gate before the race..I thought she had a real good chance at 7-1 with the scratches..But she ended up being scratched. :bang:

Race 9)..:1: or :5: should take this at a short price..No Bet....1 scratched..five was 3rd..The 6 won it at 3-1..Didn't miss anything..

Bet....$30.00
Won..$08.60
.......-$21.40

Belmont favorites are hitting at a 45% clip so far. This trend will change. I'll be there to catch the long shots when it does..

[cmoore]

Race 1)..:10: Dressmaker...WP..Has ran above par last 5 races on the dirt at longer distances..Has won 3 of 11 and itm 7 of 11. Shows a 1.9 class advantage in last. Elusive Quality runners are much the best at this distance. In 18 races she has never ran at 6 furlongs..Let's take a look at the 4 at 4-1..She's ran 2nd or 3rd last 6 of 10. A 4 of 33 record. I sure couldn't back at 4-1..

Race 2)..:4: Flying Valentine...WPS...First time starter layoff figures for the sire, broodmare sire and trainer....855, 399 and 650..with the average being 100. Michael Trobetta gets a 26% 1st time starter stat...A 36% Debut turf stat..A 27% debut MSW stat..Let's hope he stays around 12-1..But I doubt it.

Race 3)..:5: Future Prospect....NO BET...He just looks much the best on paper...The 3 might try to challenge him early..But unlikely to put enough of a dent into the pace to get the 2 or 4 to close for the win...The 4 just ran his career best..The 2 just ran his 2nd best in last 10 races..They would have to duplicate to win, which is unlikely into a softer pace today..

Race 4)..:1a: Lieutenant...WPS...Closed 16 lengths in last form the 1st call to finish..Getting blinkers on today. Will need to get his motor running much earlier shortening up to 7 furlongs..Comes back with a nice 49 breezing on the training track..A decent 5F work..S styles have won 3 of 8 at this distance..

Race 5)..:3: Mawaaqef...WPS...Mr. Greeley 2 year old 1st timers have won an impressive 13 of 27 1st time out last 3 years..Sire layoff fig is a 205..Trainer with 1st timers is a 174 layoff fig..Tops in both categories..

Race 6)..:4: Holy Anthem...WPS..Ran 2nd in last..2 of 6 came back and won from that race..Has enough early speed to get good position early. Trainer gets a 309 layoff figure off 60 days or longer on the turf. Royal Anthem is 3rd in turf wins last 3 years.

Race 7-10 to follow..Running a little behind schedule....Your all holding your breath, right..:lol:

[cmoore]

Race 7)..:7: Castle Harbour...WPS...This Prime Timber will be making his 2nd turf start.. He ran the fastest early pace figures in last on the mud..
Should be able to transfer those figs on the turf..Early speed has dominated on the inner turf course..Velaquez aboard is a plus.

Race 8)..:8: Dirty Water Dog...WPS..Has won 4 of 7 on the turf..3 of 5 at Belmont..2 of 4 at this distance..Excellent work tab..Not one work over 8 days since July 30th..Trainer gets a 207 layoff fig off 60 days or longer..Odds will likely drift up a little from the ML odds imo..Other trainer stats..39% of 57 starts winner last race...23% in turf starts with a positive roi...Trainer/jock combo is 25 of 100 with a positive roi also..

Race 9)..:6: Thunders Dove...WP..This Filly has been just pulling away each and every race..Last 2 class rating figs are top..ML of 6-1 is a fantastic price..

Race 10)..:4: Runfromthestorm...No Bet...This Stormy Atlantic filly woke up on the turf in last to win easily..A likely 8/5 favorite or less..Will get the lead or track behind the 2..Using in DD's and pick 3's for sure..

[Tee]

#2 City Sneakers - just how far will he go?

[cmoore]

Short and Sweet today..

Race 1)..:6: Simplify..Win only..

Race 2)..:9: Roma Di Notte...Scratched from a Mdn claiming on the 24th. Giving MSW another try off a good effort..

Race 3)..:5: Ju Jitsu Jax..WP

Race 4)..:6: Big Brownie...Win only...Clocker special work on sept. 22nd...Lack of early speed in race..Possible wire job today..

Race 5)..:1a: Female Drama...wp..Indian Charlie first timer with good workouts

Race 6)..:4: Prute Hill..WPS..I like this Strong Hope/Grand Slam first timer

Race 7)..:7: Call Tiger...WPS...Last was a very good race on the mud...Looks to be getting back in form..

8,9 and 10 will follow

[Bertrando]

I do agree with the previous post on the merits of Pletcher entry . The other half Anchorage has a comparable work tab ,and has some numbers that I think make her the better half of the entry. She came out of the Barretts March 2YO in training sale and sold for 15 x's Tapit's sire fee. In the workout at the sale she registered a Breeze Fig number of 66 and measured a 26ft stride length . All of these factors are pretty good indicators of quality.

However, what interests me the most is the :10: A Plus . I am a sucker for unraced 2 yo's who sport a 6F workout particularly one that is inside of 7 days of the race. The other angle that cannot be ignored is the fact Johnny V is choosing this filly over both of Pletchers runners. Remember who works Todds horses in the AM, Cordero. Who is as you know is Valasquez's agent .
:10: / :1: exacta . plus a exacta box saver

[cmoore]

Short and Sweet today..

Race 1)..:6: Simplify..Win only..

Race 2)..:9: Roma Di Notte...Scratched from a Mdn claiming on the 24th. Giving MSW another try off a good effort..

Race 3)..:5: Ju Jitsu Jax..WP

Race 4)..:6: Big Brownie...Win only...Clocker special work on sept. 22nd...Lack of early speed in race..Possible wire job today..

Race 5)..:1a: Female Drama...wp..Indian Charlie first timer with good workouts

Race 6)..:4: Prute Hill..WPS..I like this Strong Hope/Grand Slam first timer

Race 7)..:7: Call Tiger...WPS...Last was a very good race on the mud...Looks to be getting back in form..

8,9 and 10 will follow

Race 8)..Skipped...2/5 favorite looked dominate

Race 9)..:1: Make Note..WP..Tons of early speed in this..Should make a run late..

Race 10)..:1: Puregoodniss...WPS..3 of 6 itm on an off track..Top trainer at this distance in this race type..

[cmoore]

Race 1)..:7: McVictory...WPS..The 1,2 and 8 look to make it a faster then normal pace..This should set it up for closers..Steadied 2 races back and was out of it early off the 2 month layoff. Drops down and wins at 9-1..Moves up and shortens up. Trainer 17% route to sprint..This 6 will be over bet imo..Jerkins is terrible off long layoffs..

Race 2)..:7: Artistic Ablility...WP..Ran well above par in her first two calls in last on the slop with blinkers on and lasix..City zip is the top sprint sire among this bunch..The one to catch.

Race 3)..:8: Ruffino...Win.....Perfect post to rate from today..Maragh will have a clear view of the field and will pick his spot to go right on by. By the way..Raffie's Majesty dominates in purse over 40k..81% of 32 wins have been at 40k or higher in this race type..The one's sire is 2nd at 59%..

Race 4)..:10: Mitchell Park..WPS...Should get a good trip right behind the 3 and 6. Those two both look like need to lead types..This 10 broke last and lost 2 lengths at least at the start. This is a perfect distance for the Safe in The USA runner..6 of 7 winners in this race type have won at 6.5 to 7.5 furlongs..

Race 5)..:2: Winthrop House...Win.....Tons of early speed in this one..This More Than ready runner is the 2nd best sire in turf wins the last 3 years behind the 4's sire stormy atlantic..85 late pace is 2nd best last race..

Race 6)..:4: Shareholder Dues..WP..Top figure in last at a ML of 6-1..The early speed runners don't look very promising..Anyone of the 4's last 3 races is probably good enough to win this one..

Race 7)..:4: Gran Appeal..WP..Taking the inside speed in this..It's on the inner turf and they start on the turn..Inside posts look to have an advantage here..The 3 out of Sadlers Wells unlikely to be an early speed type..The 4 should be able to beat the 2 out of the gate..Should be on the lead or sitting 2nd early..

Race 8)..:8: Coal Play..PASS...Likely the one to catch..Unless the 4 shows up. Not sure how much early speed this one has..Probably use the 1,8 in DD's and pick3's..

Race 9)..:7: Hello Gold..WPS...The sire Gold Fever is 3 out of 14 wins at this distance..That's a 21% clip. Top percentage in this race on the turf..Hello gold is 3 of 6 on the turf with 3 seconds. Maybe today is the day. Also shortens up..

[PaceAdvantage]

No ROI update since the 26th?

[cj]

No ROI update since the 26th?

I hope this isn't his prep work for TLG Challenge 2010.

[cmoore]

No ROI update since the 26th?

I'll update it tonight.

[SansuiSC]

I hope this isn't his prep work for TLG Challenge 2010.
:lol:

[cmoore]

Race 1)..:10: Dressmaker...WP..Has ran above par last 5 races on the dirt at longer distances..Has won 3 of 11 and itm 7 of 11. Shows a 1.9 class advantage in last. Elusive Quality runners are much the best at this distance. In 18 races she has never ran at 6 furlongs..Let's take a look at the 4 at 4-1..She's ran 2nd or 3rd last 6 of 10. A 4 of 33 record. I sure couldn't back at 4-1..

Race 2)..:4: Flying Valentine...WPS...First time starter layoff figures for the sire, broodmare sire and trainer....855, 399 and 650..with the average being 100. Michael Trobetta gets a 26% 1st time starter stat...A 36% Debut turf stat..A 27% debut MSW stat..Let's hope he stays around 12-1..But I doubt it.

Race 3)..:5: Future Prospect....NO BET...He just looks much the best on paper...The 3 might try to challenge him early..But unlikely to put enough of a dent into the pace to get the 2 or 4 to close for the win...The 4 just ran his career best..The 2 just ran his 2nd best in last 10 races..They would have to duplicate to win, which is unlikely into a softer pace today..

Race 4)..:1a: Lieutenant...WPS...Closed 16 lengths in last form the 1st call to finish..Getting blinkers on today. Will need to get his motor running much earlier shortening up to 7 furlongs..Comes back with a nice 49 breezing on the training track..A decent 5F work..S styles have won 3 of 8 at this distance..

Race 5)..:3: Mawaaqef...WPS...Mr. Greeley 2 year old 1st timers have won an impressive 13 of 27 1st time out last 3 years..Sire layoff fig is a 205..Trainer with 1st timers is a 174 layoff fig..Tops in both categories..

Race 6)..:4: Holy Anthem...WPS..Ran 2nd in last..2 of 6 came back and won from that race..Has enough early speed to get good position early. Trainer gets a 309 layoff figure off 60 days or longer on the turf. Royal Anthem is 3rd in turf wins last 3 years.

Race 7-10 to follow..Running a little behind schedule....Your all holding your breath, right..:lol:

Race 1)..:10: Dressmaker...WP...............out

Race 2)..:4: Flying Valentine...WPS.......2nd....9.50, 5.30

Race 3)..:5: Future Prospect....NO BET...Won at 1/2..

Race 4)..:1a: Lieutenant...WPS..............out

Race 5)..:3: Mawaaqef...WPS................out

Race 6)..:4: Holy Anthem...WPS.............out

Race 7)..:7: Castle Harbour...WPS...........out

Race 8)..:8: Dirty Water Dog...WPS.........out

Race 9)..:6: Thunders Dove...WP.............out

Race 10)..:4: Runfromthestorm...No Bet....out at 3/2

Bet...$44.00
Won.$14.80
.....-$29.20

[cmoore]

Short and Sweet today..

Race 1)..:6: Simplify..Win only..

Race 2)..:9: Roma Di Notte...Scratched from a Mdn claiming on the 24th. Giving MSW another try off a good effort..

Race 3)..:5: Ju Jitsu Jax..WP

Race 4)..:6: Big Brownie...Win only...Clocker special work on sept. 22nd...Lack of early speed in race..Possible wire job today..

Race 5)..:1a: Female Drama...wp..Indian Charlie first timer with good workouts

Race 6)..:4: Prute Hill..WPS..I like this Strong Hope/Grand Slam first timer

Race 7)..:7: Call Tiger...WPS...Last was a very good race on the mud...Looks to be getting back in form..

8,9 and 10 will follow

Race 1)..:6: Simplify..Win only..................out

Race 2)..:9: Roma Di Notte.............SCRATCHED

Race 3)..:5: Ju Jitsu Jax..WP............2nd 5.10

Race 4)..:6: Big Brownie...Win only........3rd

Race 5)..:1a: Female Drama...wp..........Won 5.70, 3.40

Race 6)..:4: Prute Hill..WPS...........SCRATCHED...The 4x entered in the race and won at 5-1..:mad:

Race 7)..:7: Call Tiger...WPS............4th at 7-1

Race 8)..Skipped...2/5 favorite looked dominate

Race 9)..:1: Make Note..WP.....WON $21.20, $8.60

Race 10)..:1: Puregoodniss...WPS.......4th at 7-1

Won...$44.00
Bet....$28.00
.........+16.00

[cmoore]

Race 1)..:7: McVictory...WPS..The 1,2 and 8 look to make it a faster then normal pace..This should set it up for closers..Steadied 2 races back and was out of it early off the 2 month layoff. Drops down and wins at 9-1..Moves up and shortens up. Trainer 17% route to sprint..This 6 will be over bet imo..Jerkins is terrible off long layoffs..

Race 2)..:7: Artistic Ablility...WP..Ran well above par in her first two calls in last on the slop with blinkers on and lasix..City zip is the top sprint sire among this bunch..The one to catch.

Race 3)..:8: Ruffino...Win.....Perfect post to rate from today..Maragh will have a clear view of the field and will pick his spot to go right on by. By the way..Raffie's Majesty dominates in purse over 40k..81% of 32 wins have been at 40k or higher in this race type..The one's sire is 2nd at 59%..

Race 4)..:10: Mitchell Park..WPS...Should get a good trip right behind the 3 and 6. Those two both look like need to lead types..This 10 broke last and lost 2 lengths at least at the start. This is a perfect distance for the Safe in The USA runner..6 of 7 winners in this race type have won at 6.5 to 7.5 furlongs..

Race 5)..:2: Winthrop House...Win.....Tons of early speed in this one..This More Than ready runner is the 2nd best sire in turf wins the last 3 years behind the 4's sire stormy atlantic..85 late pace is 2nd best last race..

Race 6)..:4: Shareholder Dues..WP..Top figure in last at a ML of 6-1..The early speed runners don't look very promising..Anyone of the 4's last 3 races is probably good enough to win this one..

Race 7)..:4: Gran Appeal..WP..Taking the inside speed in this..It's on the inner turf and they start on the turn..Inside posts look to have an advantage here..The 3 out of Sadlers Wells unlikely to be an early speed type..The 4 should be able to beat the 2 out of the gate..Should be on the lead or sitting 2nd early..

Race 8)..:8: Coal Play..PASS...Likely the one to catch..Unless the 4 shows up. Not sure how much early speed this one has..Probably use the 1,8 in DD's and pick3's..

Race 9)..:7: Hello Gold..WPS...The sire Gold Fever is 3 out of 14 wins at this distance..That's a 21% clip. Top percentage in this race on the turf..Hello gold is 3 of 6 on the turf with 3 seconds. Maybe today is the day. Also shortens up..

Race 1)..:7: McVictory...WPS...........out

Race 2)..:7: Artistic Ablility...WP.......out

Race 3)..:8: Ruffino...Win................Won $5.20

Race 4)..:10: Mitchell Park..WPS...........out

Race 5)..:2: Winthrop House...Win........SCRATCHED

Race 6)..:4: Shareholder Dues..WP........Won $5.30, 2.50

Race 7)..:4: Gran Appeal..WP............2nd at 7-1....$5.20

Race 8)..:8: Coal Play..PASS...No Bet...out

Race 9)..:7: Hello Gold..WPS....another 2nd at 19-1...$15.80, $7.60
Chavez stuck to the rail the whole way around..This filly had something left at the finish..She was gaining on the winner..Watch next time out..

Won...$41.60
Bet....$32.00
.......+$9.60

[cmoore]

Week ending results at Belmont..Wednesdays picks were in a thread dated for that day..After that, I started a different thread and kept all picks together..

Wednesday.Sept. 16th..........+$31.20
Thursday....Sept. 17th..........-$04.00
Friday........Sept. 18th..........-$23.30
Saturday....Sept. 19th.........+$00.90
Sunday......Sept. 20th.........-$09.10
......................................-$04.30

Wednesday.Sept 23rd..........-$31.90
Thursday....Sept 24th.........+$11.20
Friday........Sept.25th.........-$21.40
Saturday....Sept.26th.........-$29.20
Sunday......Sept.27th.........+$16.00
.....................................-$55.30

Wednesday.Sept.30th.........+09.60

All posted picks are stated wps, wp or just a win bet...ML odds and odds I think they will go off at decide the bet..There was one show payout of $10.60 on the 16th that I didn't bet..Odds went up higher then I thought..

........................................Sept..16th-20th...........Sept. 23rd-27th
Win Bets .....(42).....8 won............-$28.50......(35)...4 Won......-$26.70
Place Bets.....(30)....10 placed...... +$31.70.....(29)...8 Placed...-$10.10
Show Bets.....(19)....5 showed...... -$07.50.....(19)..4 showed..-$18.50
...............................................-$04.30............................-$55.30

Win = 15.5%.......12 of 77
Place = 30.5%.....18 of 59
Show = 23.6%.....9 of 38

Just a couple of my long shots win instead of finishing 2nd and I'm even or up. Through 11 days of making picks. I'm down 25 units. No Biggie..I'll get it back. Favorites at Belmont were winning at a clip of 40% through Sept. 27th..Mark down another 6 of 9 favorites winning on Sept. 30th..


ROI stats updated above..

[cmoore]

Thursday, Oct. 1st

Race 1)..:7: Justin..WP..This Speightstown runner woke up in last. Mini duel to the first quarter..Settled back to 3rd and came again down the stretch..Needs to settle off the pace today and make one big run late..

Race 2)..:3: Unrivaled Belle..WP..Just missed breaking her maiden 1st time out after clipping heels at the start..Comes back off a 4.5 month layoff and wins for fun on the stretch out..

Race 3)..:4:..Spritely.....No Bet...Class of this field..A likely 4/5 favorite..

Race 4)..:1:/:1a:...No Bet..City Zip and Freud are top turf sires in this one by far..The 9 out of Smarty Jones/Elusive Quality might surprise..Trainer is very bad though..

Race 5)..:9: My Sire's Fire...WPS..Hook and Ladder 1st timers have won 8 of 28 first time out the last 3 years..This filly shows a clocker special work on Sept. 23rd..2/15 but 1/70 for the week for 2 year olds..Taking a chance with this very bad trainer with firsters..

Race 6)..:1: Veritable..WP..Should settle into 3rd, behind the 3 and 8.
An 8-1 ML seems like the value play in this lackluster field..

Race 7)..:6: Pynaformer..WP..Has been closing well last 2 races..Should get an average to faster then average pace to run into. 84 speed rating is tops last race.

Race 8)..:2: Atticus Kristy...Win..Should fire out for lead..This runner seems to always put in a good effort..

Race 9)..:3: Ketubah...Win...Four E/EP 8's in this race. This Filly should be flying home again. 107 late pace in last..Lightly raced and best yet to comme..

[cmoore]

Thursday, Oct. 1st

Race 1)..:7: Justin..WP..This Speightstown runner woke up in last. Mini duel to the first quarter..Settled back to 3rd and came again down the stretch..Needs to settle off the pace today and make one big run late..

Race 2)..:3: Unrivaled Belle..WP..Just missed breaking her maiden 1st time out after clipping heels at the start..Comes back off a 4.5 month layoff and wins for fun on the stretch out..

Race 3)..:4:..Spritely.....No Bet...Class of this field..A likely 4/5 favorite..

Race 4)..:1:/:1a:...No Bet..City Zip and Freud are top turf sires in this one by far..The 9 out of Smarty Jones/Elusive Quality might surprise..Trainer is very bad though..

Race 5)..:9: My Sire's Fire...WPS..Hook and Ladder 1st timers have won 8 of 28 first time out the last 3 years..This filly shows a clocker special work on Sept. 23rd..2/15 but 1/70 for the week for 2 year olds..Taking a chance with this very bad trainer with firsters..

Race 6)..:1: Veritable..WP..Should settle into 3rd, behind the 3 and 8.
An 8-1 ML seems like the value play in this lackluster field..

Race 7)..:6: Pynaformer..WP..Has been closing well last 2 races..Should get an average to faster then average pace to run into. 84 speed rating is tops last race.

Race 8)..:2: Atticus Kristy...Win..Should fire out for lead..This runner seems to always put in a good effort..

Race 9)..:3: Ketubah...Win...Four E/EP 8's in this race. This Filly should be flying home again. 107 late pace in last..Lightly raced and best yet to comme..

Thursday, Oct. 1st
Race 1)..:7: Justin..WP........out

Race 2)..:3:UnrivaledBelle..WP.....WON..$8.80...$4.80

Race 3)..:4:..Spritely.....No Bet....won for fun

Race 4)..:1:/:1a:...No Bet..City Zip and Freud are top turf sires in this one by far..The 9 out of Smarty Jones/Elusive Quality might surprise..Trainer is very bad though..

With the 1A being scratched and off the turf...I hope you all read between the lines and put a little on the :9: Shrewd One.... A $50 winner...:jump:..I won't count it in my ROI in this thread for all whose counting.

Race 5)..:9: My Sire's Fire...WPS...3rd $5.90...Led stretch and thought he might get there..Got caught by both favorites..

Race 6)..:1: Veritable..WP........out

Race 7)..:6: Pynaformer..WP....WON $10.80...$6.70

Race 8)..:2: Atticus Kristy...Win.....SCRATCHED

Race 9)..:3: Ketubah...Win...........out

WON....$37.00
BET......$24.00
...........+$13.00

[PaceAdvantage]

Couple of good ones today...nice...I enjoy the commentary as well...you don't see that very often down here in the selections section...

[cmoore]

Friday, Oct. 2nd

Race 1)..:9: Sweet Bama Breeze..WPS..Got the lead in last under restraints. Fought down stretch, only to tire last 1/2 furlong or so. Third start off a 9 week layoff. Could wire field at a price. Desormeaux staying aboard is a plus..

Race 2)..:6: Goodness Greycious...WP..Going with the Yonaguska runner. A 6k purchase in a 25k claiming race. That makes sense. He shows a very nice work on Sept. 14th. The 4 and 5 are already dropping after 2 starts each at a lower price then purchased for. They can have them at 3-1 and 5-1..

Race 3)..:1: Haynesfield..NO BET.. A likely 3/5 favorite..Definite class advantage. Won for fun back in December off a 73 day layoff. 209 day layoff today. 7 works in 45 days.

Race 4)..:4: First Flute..Win..Has gotten lead last 2 at the first call. Doesn't look like much early pace in this one. Shortens up a furlong. The sire Bowman's Band has 8 wins and 4 have come at the distance of 6.5 to 7.5 furlongs.

............:9: Authentic Shot..Win..This Officer first timer could show early speed. Sire is above average with wins first time out with 3 year olds..The trainer Duggan gets a 668 layoff factor with first timers. Low sample of races but still well above the 100 average.

Side Note: The 10 Moon Drop has raced in MSW in his last 2. Don't let that fool you. Those races were equal or weaker then what most faced in this raced lately. A false ML favorite for sure imo..

Race 5)..:5: Japengo..WPS..Ignore last race on the slop. Closed well 2 back at 6 furs at monmouth..Looks to be in good form and trying the turf again. Theatrical is 2nd at this distance behind the 8's incurable Optimist. Not counting the AE's or MTO's..His last 2 sprint class figures are well above fields last 2 except for the 4's second race back and the 9's last..12-1 a great price.

Race 6)..:4: Cat On A Quest...No Bet..Ran 10 points above par in last off a 226 day layoff..You would think an improvement likely. The drop in for a tag is puzzling to me though..Still gonna pass.

Race 7)..:5: Exclusive Scheme..WP..Ran a 108 late pace in last into a very slow race shape (-17, -17). Seven E/EP runsyles in race. Pace should be much faster today. Also has been itm 4 of 6 on the turf..

Race 8)..:1: Staroraday...WP...He's ran his best when going wide and getting into the middle of the track..Maragh back on is plus. We need the 6 or 7 to challenge the 2 early. The odds could drift up to 8 or 9-1.Worth a shot at that price..

Race 9)..:7: Farawaycat..WPS..The trainer Tagg Barclay has 131 turf wins the last 3 years. That's 2nd behind Mott William. Barclay gets a 153 layoff fig with first timers on the turf. This Filly has 9 works in 52 days. Now that's a good work tab. Even though there a little slow..Don't let that fool you. Let's look at the Broodmare sire. Mountain Cat runners get a 603 layoff figure and has a 30% clip out of 20 wins at this distance. By far the best. The sire E Dubai is on the top turf sprint list. 12-1 a nice price.

[cmoore]

Friday, Oct. 2nd

Race 1)..:9: Sweet Bama Breeze..WPS..Got the lead in last under restraints. Fought down stretch, only to tire last 1/2 furlong or so. Third start off a 9 week layoff. Could wire field at a price. Desormeaux staying aboard is a plus..

Race 2)..:6: Goodness Greycious...WP..Going with the Yonaguska runner. A 6k purchase in a 25k claiming race. That makes sense. He shows a very nice work on Sept. 14th. The 4 and 5 are already dropping after 2 starts each at a lower price then purchased for. They can have them at 3-1 and 5-1..

Race 3)..:1: Haynesfield..NO BET.. A likely 3/5 favorite..Definite class advantage. Won for fun back in December off a 73 day layoff. 209 day layoff today. 7 works in 45 days.

Race 4)..:4: First Flute..Win..Has gotten lead last 2 at the first call. Doesn't look like much early pace in this one. Shortens up a furlong. The sire Bowman's Band has 8 wins and 4 have come at the distance of 6.5 to 7.5 furlongs.

............:9: Authentic Shot..Win..This Officer first timer could show early speed. Sire is above average with wins first time out with 3 year olds..The trainer Duggan gets a 668 layoff factor with first timers. Low sample of races but still well above the 100 average.

Side Note: The 10 Moon Drop has raced in MSW in his last 2. Don't let that fool you. Those races were equal or weaker then what most faced in this raced lately. A false ML favorite for sure imo..

Race 5)..:5: Japengo..WPS..Ignore last race on the slop. Closed well 2 back at 6 furs at monmouth..Looks to be in good form and trying the turf again. Theatrical is 2nd at this distance behind the 8's incurable Optimist. Not counting the AE's or MTO's..His last 2 sprint class figures are well above fields last 2 except for the 4's second race back and the 9's last..12-1 a great price.

Race 6)..:4: Cat On A Quest...No Bet..Ran 10 points above par in last off a 226 day layoff..You would think an improvement likely. The drop in for a tag is puzzling to me though..Still gonna pass.

Race 7)..:5: Exclusive Scheme..WP..Ran a 108 late pace in last into a very slow race shape (-17, -17). Seven E/EP runsyles in race. Pace should be much faster today. Also has been itm 4 of 6 on the turf..

Race 8)..:1: Staroraday...WP...He's ran his best when going wide and getting into the middle of the track..Maragh back on is plus. We need the 6 or 7 to challenge the 2 early. The odds could drift up to 8 or 9-1.Worth a shot at that price..

Race 9)..:7: Farawaycat..WPS..The trainer Tagg Barclay has 131 turf wins the last 3 years. That's 2nd behind Mott William. Barclay gets a 153 layoff fig with first timers on the turf. This Filly has 9 works in 52 days. Now that's a good work tab. Even though there a little slow..Don't let that fool you. Let's look at the Broodmare sire. Mountain Cat runners get a 603 layoff figure and has a 30% clip out of 20 wins at this distance. By far the best. The sire E Dubai is on the top turf sprint list. 12-1 a nice price.

Friday, Oct. 2nd
Race 1)..:9: Sweet Bama Breeze..WPS......out

Race 2)..:6: Goodness Greycious...WP.....Won $16.00....$6.00

Race 3)..:1: Haynesfield..NO BET.. ..........2nd

Race 4)..:4: First Flute..Win................Won $10.60.......The Officer first timer puts the pressure on the 10 and sets it up for my 4.

Race 5)..:5: Japengo..WPS.................out

Race 6)..:4: Cat On A Quest...No Bet..........won 3.8....higher then I thought

Race 7)..:5: Exclusive Scheme..WP............4th...Troubled trip probably cost her 2nd.

Race 8)..:1: Staroraday...WP.......4th....I've come to the conclusion that this horse needs 6.5 furlongs..

Race 9)..:7: Farawaycat..WPS.....SCRATCHED..

Won....$32.60
Bet.....$28.00
........+$04.60

[SansuiSC]

cmoore,

Very much appreciated selections and discussion of them. Your doing well overall so far it seems. It's my main circuit and you have made me go back and look at some things I seem to have overlooked at times.

Again VERY MUCH appreciated. Keep up the good work.

SSC

[cmoore]

Saturday, Oct. 3rd

Race 1)..:6: Benlayla...WPS..Ignore the sixes last 2 races. Turf experiment went bad and steadied in traffic and tired going 1 1/8th. That 87 speed figure 3 races back is competitive here..returning in 6 days..Why is the one off 64 days and dropping from 22k to 10k? Can the 1A repeat his last two? A 4% jock aboard today. The 9 shows a 7 week gap in his workout tab. Was in a 40k optional claiming race 2 back and won..Now in for 10k. Now that raises some red flags..

Race 2)..:1: Dicover Jets..WP..Broke slow in last and lost at least 4 lengths..Made up those 4 lengths by rushing up..Challenged leader but tired stretch..Gets blinkers on today..A clean break today might get him a wire job..A.P. Jet 2nd among sires with a 63% clip out of 16 races. The 7 will be the danger..did run par last time out..The ten shows one work in 37 days. Not a good sign in my book.

Race 3)..:7: Eagle Strike..Win..Only EP style in race. Likely to get the lead or settle behind the 4 early..Sires Storm Cat and A.P. Indy runners obviously are the tops at wins in purses 40k or higher..238 layoff factor for this 7..Frankel gets a 263 layoff factor off more then 60 days..

Race 4)..:9: Perfect Easter...WP..Should settle 3rd through 5th early. Has shown good late pace figs last 3.. The 5 could get challenged early by the 8. If the 5 breaks all by himself..Then it might be lights out..5-1 or higher on this 9 is worth a shot..

Race 5)..:1: Habana....Win..Sires Dynaformer and Extraextraordinarys have produced 163 turf winners the last 3 years..Dynaformer first timers get a 247 layoff factor..2.5x the average..Broodmare sire gets a 287 layoff fig..Mott Williams gets a 233 layoff factor with first timers.

...........:4: Well Excuuuuze Me..WP..Lion Heart First timers get a 862 layoff factor..Low sample of only 14 turf wins..Trainer gets a 153 layoff factor. This sire gets a 43% Non Firm Turf. So 6 of those 14 turf wins have come on a Non firm Turf course..

Race 6)..:2: Music Note..NO Bet..The 1 or 1A have a shot..But there seems to be no value in race..

Race 7)..:5: Fabulous Strike..No Bet..If he runs any one of his last 2 races. He wins easily. I liked the one at first but he's carrying 9 pounds more then his last race..A repeat of that race unlikely..The 3 or 4 need a :43 and change half to close into..And that's no guarantee they catch the 5.

Races 8-11 shortly..

[cmoore]

Saturday, Oct. 3rd continued

Race 8)..:3: Pure Clean...WP..Only S style in race..The 2 foreign runners could be stalkers also. Five E/EP run styles could make it a faster then normal pace..This 3 has two wins at 1 and 1/4..Will be closing late..The Broodmare sire General Assembly has produced 12 turf wins in the last 3 years but 4 have come at 9-10 furlongs..The trainer Robert Holthus has only 14 turf wins in the last 3 years but 4 have come at 9-10 furlongs..That's 2nd percentage wise to Jerkins..

Race 9)..:7: Presious Passion...WP...Alone on the lead..Should be able to slow it way down..Has won 3 of 5 at this distance..The trainer Mary Hartman has 10 turf wins and 6 have come at greater then 10 furlongs.

Race 10)..:6: Dry Martini...WPS..His last 2 races off a layoff have been very good. A 106 and 103 speed rating..The trainer Barlay tagg is tops at this distance at 29%..Just a little better then Pletcher..Plus Barclay gets a 229 layoff factor off 37-60 days...The broodmare sire Criminal Type gets a whopping 37% of 19 wins at this distance also..A staggering statistic..I threw in the show bet in this race, just in case a bridgejumper goes crazy..You never know..LOL!!!

Race 11)..:12: Admiral Caperton..WPS..Trainer is 3 of 13 Debut turf starts..Trainer gets a 191 layoff factor with 1st timers..With 100 being the average. Sire gets a 342 layoff factor. Almost 3.5x the average..Very nice 4F work on Sept. 24th..

[cmoore]

Saturday, Oct. 3rd

Race 1)..:6: Benlayla...WPS..Ignore the sixes last 2 races. Turf experiment went bad and steadied in traffic and tired going 1 1/8th. That 87 speed figure 3 races back is competitive here..returning in 6 days..Why is the one off 64 days and dropping from 22k to 10k? Can the 1A repeat his last two? A 4% jock aboard today. The 9 shows a 7 week gap in his workout tab. Was in a 40k optional claiming race 2 back and won..Now in for 10k. Now that raises some red flags..

Race 2)..:1: Dicover Jets..WP..Broke slow in last and lost at least 4 lengths..Made up those 4 lengths by rushing up..Challenged leader but tired stretch..Gets blinkers on today..A clean break today might get him a wire job..A.P. Jet 2nd among sires with a 63% clip out of 16 races. The 7 will be the danger..did run par last time out..The ten shows one work in 37 days. Not a good sign in my book.

Race 3)..:7: Eagle Strike..Win..Only EP style in race. Likely to get the lead or settle behind the 4 early..Sires Storm Cat and A.P. Indy runners obviously are the tops at wins in purses 40k or higher..238 layoff factor for this 7..Frankel gets a 263 layoff factor off more then 60 days..

Race 4)..:9: Perfect Easter...WP..Should settle 3rd through 5th early. Has shown good late pace figs last 3.. The 5 could get challenged early by the 8. If the 5 breaks all by himself..Then it might be lights out..5-1 or higher on this 9 is worth a shot..

Race 5)..:1: Habana....Win..Sires Dynaformer and Extraextraordinarys have produced 163 turf winners the last 3 years..Dynaformer first timers get a 247 layoff factor..2.5x the average..Broodmare sire gets a 287 layoff fig..Mott Williams gets a 233 layoff factor with first timers.

...........:4: Well Excuuuuze Me..WP..Lion Heart First timers get a 862 layoff factor..Low sample of only 14 turf wins..Trainer gets a 153 layoff factor. This sire gets a 43% Non Firm Turf. So 6 of those 14 turf wins have come on a Non firm Turf course..

Race 6)..:2: Music Note..NO Bet..The 1 or 1A have a shot..But there seems to be no value in race..

Race 7)..:5: Fabulous Strike..No Bet..If he runs any one of his last 2 races. He wins easily. I liked the one at first but he's carrying 9 pounds more then his last race..A repeat of that race unlikely..The 3 or 4 need a :43 and change half to close into..And that's no guarantee they catch the 5.

Saturday, Oct. 3rd continued

Race 8)..:3: Pure Clean...WP..Only S style in race..The 2 foreign runners could be stalkers also. Five E/EP run styles could make it a faster then normal pace..This 3 has two wins at 1 and 1/4..Will be closing late..The Broodmare sire General Assembly has produced 12 turf wins in the last 3 years but 4 have come at 9-10 furlongs..The trainer Robert Holthus has only 14 turf wins in the last 3 years but 4 have come at 9-10 furlongs..That's 2nd percentage wise to Jerkins..

Race 9)..:7: Presious Passion...WP...Alone on the lead..Should be able to slow it way down..Has won 3 of 5 at this distance..The trainer Mary Hartman has 10 turf wins and 6 have come at greater then 10 furlongs.

Race 10)..:6: Dry Martini...WPS..His last 2 races off a layoff have been very good. A 106 and 103 speed rating..The trainer Barlay tagg is tops at this distance at 29%..Just a little better then Pletcher..Plus Barclay gets a 229 layoff factor off 37-60 days...The broodmare sire Criminal Type gets a whopping 37% of 19 wins at this distance also..A staggering statistic..I threw in the show bet in this race, just in case a bridgejumper goes crazy..You never know..LOL!!!

Race 11)..:12: Admiral Caperton..WPS..Trainer is 3 of 13 Debut turf starts..Trainer gets a 191 layoff factor with 1st timers..With 100 being the average. Sire gets a 342 layoff factor. Almost 3.5x the average..Very nice 4F work on Sept. 24th..

Races 8-11 shortly..

Race 1)..:6: Benlayla...WPS..............out

Race 2)..:1: Dicover Jets..WP...........out

Race 3)..:7: Eagle Strike..Win...........out

Race 4)..:9: Perfect Easter...WP........out

Race 5)..:1: Habana.................Win...out
.............:4: Well Excuuuuze Me..WP...out

Race 6)..:2: Music Note..NO Bet...........Won

Race 7)..:5: Fabulous Strike..No Bet......2nd at 3/5

Race 8)..:3: Pure Clean...WP.............Won..$7.20....$3.50

Race 9)..:7: Presious Passion...WP.......SCRATCHED

Race 10)..:6: Dry Martini...WPS.............out

Race 11)..:12: Admiral Caperton..WPS....SCRATCHED

Bet....$32.00
Won...$10.70
........-$21.30...

[cmoore]

Sunday, Oct. 4th

Race 1)..:7: Treat Her Right...WP(turf or dirt)...Shortened up in last and tried to wire the field going 7 furlongs..Was ahead of the 8 Flying Sapphoon and 6 Kaleidoscope at the 6F mark before tiring..Shortens another furlong today and switches to the inner turf today..

Race 2)..:7: Tom and Dicks Girl...Win..S styles have won 4 of 5 this week at this distance on the turf..She improved 2nd start off a 179 day layoff. Any slight improvement again and she's got a chance at a big price..Jerkins is 20% of 66 3rd off layoff..

........If OFF the turf..ADD this bet also..:1: Cody Samora...WP..This Mayakovsky/Matty G first timer should show early speed and could get loose on the lead..3 of the 9 wins by the sires offspring have come on the mud..The trainer gets a 42% mud win percentage out of 19 wins also..

Race 3)..:5: Kissa Melissa...Win..The 2 and 6 likely to push the pace. This 5 will make her usual big move. Huge late pace figures last 2. Hopefully the 8 gets hammered down to 4/5 and we get 4-1 on Kissa. This 5 is 6 of 7 itm on an off track..

Race 4)..:5: Yield Bogey...Win..Made a quarter move 2 races back. Set a fast pace and tired late. Next race jockey has a death grip holding him back. Runs 4th again. The one has early speed also. Eiter this 5 gets the lead or tracks behind the one. This 2 is running at a distance that might be too short for him..Trainer putting blinkers back on. Going against this hammered favorite.

AT 10:37A.M. Belmont park update...Track MUDDY.....Turf OFF

Race 5)..:1: Capitalism At Risk...WP..Very fast out of the gate in 1st career start. Reared start in last. She shows 2 nice bullet works since..

Race 6)..:5: Tapitsfly...Win..OFF THE TURF..The sire Tapits offspring have 64 dirt wins over the last 3 years..9 of them have come in this race type..8 of those 9 have won at this distance..So these 2 year olds run well at the longer distance. The 8 is a MTO and will likely shoot for the lead..The sires average winning distance is 5.9 furlongs. Hopefully they pound this dutrow runner..

Race 7)..:8: Anjori...NO BET..Ran 2 points above par in the mud last start. She show a clocker special work for the week..1/36..A.P. Jet gets a 30% mud figure out of 50 wins in this race type..

Race 8)..:1: Chernobyl's Hero..Win...Ran 2 points below par on a muddy track in last off a 7 week layoff..Has ran well on off tracks..This 4 Star of New York just beat a very weak MSW field..That 8 length win is deceptive..Again I hope they pound the 4 into the ground and we get 3-1 or higher on this 1..

Race 9)..:6: Eskendereya...Win..Pletcher scratches the 5 and runs the 6. The Broken vow runner bred more for the dirt then the Giants Causeway runner and has a graded win..Interesting..This colt rated in first start and closed to get 2nd..Will have to rate again behind the 7. He shows a clocker special work n Sept 26th..8/30 but 5/79 for the week for 2 year olds..

Race 10)..:12: Futurazo...WP..There's a lot going for this runner...Key race in last..2 of 5 came back and won..Roaring Fever has 6 wins in 22 starts on the mud..Top percentage in this race..He shows 5 works in 37 days..Ranked number one in 9 categories on my software. He has a huge pace figure advantage at the 2nd call in last also..

[Mineshaft]

Sunday, Oct. 4th

Race 1)..:7: Treat Her Right...WP(turf or dirt)...Shortened up in last and tried to wire the field going 7 furlongs..Was ahead of the 8 Flying Sapphoon and 6 Kaleidoscope at the 6F mark before tiring..Shortens another furlong today and switches to the inner turf today..

Race 2)..:7: Tom and Dicks Girl...Win..S styles have won 4 of 5 this week at this distance on the turf..She improved 2nd start off a 179 day layoff. Any slight improvement again and she's got a chance at a big price..Jerkins is 20% of 66 3rd off layoff..

........If OFF the turf..ADD this bet also..:1: Cody Samora...WP..This Mayakovsky/Matty G first timer should show early speed and could get loose on the lead..3 of the 9 wins by the sires offspring have come on the mud..The trainer gets a 42% mud win percentage out of 19 wins also..

Race 3)..:5: Kissa Melissa...Win..The 2 and 6 likely to push the pace. This 5 will make her usual big move. Huge late pace figures last 2. Hopefully the 8 gets hammered down to 4/5 and we get 4-1 on Kissa. This 5 is 6 of 7 itm on an off track..

Race 4)..:5: Yield Bogey...Win..Made a quarter move 2 races back. Set a fast pace and tired late. Next race jockey has a death grip holding him back. Runs 4th again. The one has early speed also. Eiter this 5 gets the lead or tracks behind the one. This 2 is running at a distance that might be too short for him..Trainer putting blinkers back on. Going against this hammered favorite.

AT 10:37A.M. Belmont park update...Track MUDDY.....Turf OFF

Race 5)..:1: Capitalism At Risk...WP..Very fast out of the gate in 1st career start. Reared start in last. She shows 2 nice bullet works since..

Race 6)..:5: Tapitsfly...Win..OFF THE TURF..The sire Tapits offspring have 64 dirt wins over the last 3 years..9 of them have come in this race type..8 of those 9 have won at this distance..So these 2 year olds run well at the longer distance. The 8 is a MTO and will likely shoot for the lead..The sires average winning distance is 5.9 furlongs. Hopefully they pound this dutrow runner..

Race 7)..:8: Anjori...NO BET..Ran 2 points above par in the mud last start. She show a clocker special work for the week..1/36..A.P. Jet gets a 30% mud figure out of 50 wins in this race type..

Race 8)..:1: Chernobyl's Hero..Win...Ran 2 points below par on a muddy track in last off a 7 week layoff..Has ran well on off tracks..This 4 Star of New York just beat a very weak MSW field..That 8 length win is deceptive..Again I hope they pound the 4 into the ground and we get 3-1 or higher on this 1..

Race 9)..:6: Eskendereya...Win..Pletcher scratches the 5 and runs the 6. The Broken vow runner bred more for the dirt then the Giants Causeway runner and has a graded win..Interesting..This colt rated in first start and closed to get 2nd..Will have to rate again behind the 7. He shows a clocker special work n Sept 26th..8/30 but 5/79 for the week for 2 year olds..

Race 10)..:12: Futurazo...WP..There's a lot going for this runner...Key race in last..2 of 5 came back and won..Roaring Fever has 6 wins in 22 starts on the mud..Top percentage in this race..He shows 5 works in 37 days..Ranked number one in 9 categories on my software. He has a huge pace figure advantage at the 2nd call in last also..




21/1 on Cody this pick 4 should pay a lot

[WinterTriangle]

Sunday, Oct. 4th

Race 2)..:7: Tom and Dicks Girl...Win..S styles have won 4 of 5 this week at this distance on the turf..She improved 2nd start off a 179 day layoff. Any slight improvement again and she's got a chance at a big price..Jerkins is 20% of 66 3rd off layoff..

........If OFF the turf..ADD this bet also..:1: Cody Samora...WP..This Mayakovsky/Matty G first timer should show early speed and could get loose on the lead..3 of the 9 wins by the sires offspring have come on the mud..The trainer gets a 42% mud win percentage out of 19 wins also..

.

Holy Cow, nice call on that #1. Won by 25 lengths, and went off at 25-1. wish I had seen this before the race. Your 7 came in 3rd.

[cmoore]

Sunday, Oct. 4th

Race 1)..:7: Treat Her Right...WP(turf or dirt)...Shortened up in last and tried to wire the field going 7 furlongs..Was ahead of the 8 Flying Sapphoon and 6 Kaleidoscope at the 6F mark before tiring..Shortens another furlong today and switches to the inner turf today..

Race 2)..:7: Tom and Dicks Girl...Win..S styles have won 4 of 5 this week at this distance on the turf..She improved 2nd start off a 179 day layoff. Any slight improvement again and she's got a chance at a big price..Jerkins is 20% of 66 3rd off layoff..

........If OFF the turf..ADD this bet also..:1: Cody Samora...WP..This Mayakovsky/Matty G first timer should show early speed and could get loose on the lead..3 of the 9 wins by the sires offspring have come on the mud..The trainer gets a 42% mud win percentage out of 19 wins also..

Race 3)..:5: Kissa Melissa...Win..The 2 and 6 likely to push the pace. This 5 will make her usual big move. Huge late pace figures last 2. Hopefully the 8 gets hammered down to 4/5 and we get 4-1 on Kissa. This 5 is 6 of 7 itm on an off track..

Race 4)..:5: Yield Bogey...Win..Made a quarter move 2 races back. Set a fast pace and tired late. Next race jockey has a death grip holding him back. Runs 4th again. The one has early speed also. Eiter this 5 gets the lead or tracks behind the one. This 2 is running at a distance that might be too short for him..Trainer putting blinkers back on. Going against this hammered favorite.

AT 10:37A.M. Belmont park update...Track MUDDY.....Turf OFF

Race 5)..:1: Capitalism At Risk...WP..Very fast out of the gate in 1st career start. Reared start in last. She shows 2 nice bullet works since..

Race 6)..:5: Tapitsfly...Win..OFF THE TURF..The sire Tapits offspring have 64 dirt wins over the last 3 years..9 of them have come in this race type..8 of those 9 have won at this distance..So these 2 year olds run well at the longer distance. The 8 is a MTO and will likely shoot for the lead..The sires average winning distance is 5.9 furlongs. Hopefully they pound this dutrow runner..

Race 7)..:8: Anjori...NO BET..Ran 2 points above par in the mud last start. She show a clocker special work for the week..1/36..A.P. Jet gets a 30% mud figure out of 50 wins in this race type..

Race 8)..:1: Chernobyl's Hero..Win...Ran 2 points below par on a muddy track in last off a 7 week layoff..Has ran well on off tracks..This 4 Star of New York just beat a very weak MSW field..That 8 length win is deceptive..Again I hope they pound the 4 into the ground and we get 3-1 or higher on this 1..

Race 9)..:6: Eskendereya...Win..Pletcher scratches the 5 and runs the 6. The Broken vow runner bred more for the dirt then the Giants Causeway runner and has a graded win..Interesting..This colt rated in first start and closed to get 2nd..Will have to rate again behind the 7. He shows a clocker special work n Sept 26th..8/30 but 5/79 for the week for 2 year olds..

Race 10)..:12: Futurazo...WP..There's a lot going for this runner...Key race in last..2 of 5 came back and won..Roaring Fever has 6 wins in 22 starts on the mud..Top percentage in this race..He shows 5 works in 37 days..Ranked number one in 9 categories on my software. He has a huge pace figure advantage at the 2nd call in last also..

Sunday, Oct. 4th

Race 1)..:7: Treat Her Right..................SCRATCHED

Race 2)..:7: Tom and Dicks Girl...Win..........3rd
..............:1: Cody Samora.............WP......WON $52.50, $13.00

Race 3)..:5: Kissa Melissa...Win................3rd

Race 4)..:5: Yield Bogey...Win..................2nd

Race 5)..:1: Capitalism At Risk...WP..........out

Race 6)..:5: Tapitsfly...Win......................2nd

Race 7)..:8: Anjori...NO BET.........won easily...$3.00


Race 8)..:1: Chernobyl's Hero..Win.............out

Race 9)..:6: Eskendereya...Win...........WON $7.20

Race 10)..:12: Futurazo...WP....................out

Won...$72.70
Bet.....$24.00
........+$48.70

[PaceAdvantage]

Nice hit on the monster! :ThmbUp:

[cmoore]

Through 3 weeks of betting at Belmont..All bets are posted either win, wp or wps..

Wednesday.Sept. 16th..........+$31.20
Thursday....Sept. 17th..........-$04.00
Friday........Sept. 18th..........-$23.30
Saturday....Sept. 19th.........+$00.90
Sunday......Sept. 20th.........-$09.10
......................................-$04.30

Wednesday.Sept 23rd..........-$31.90
Thursday....Sept 24th.........+$11.20
Friday........Sept.25th.........-$21.40
Saturday....Sept.26th.........-$29.20
Sunday......Sept.27th.........+$16.00
.....................................-$55.30


Wednesday.Sept.30th........+$09.50
Thursday....Oct. 1st..........+$13.00
Friday........Oct. 2nd..........+$05.20
Saturday....Oct. 3rd...........-$21.30
Sunday.....Oct. 4th............+$48.70
......................................+$55.10


<<<<<<<<<<WPS Bet Breakdown each WEEK>>>>>>>>>>>>>>

.................................Sept..16th-20th...........Sept. 23rd-27th
Win Bets .....(42)....8 won...........-$28.50......(35)...4 Won......-$26.70
Place Bets.....(30)...10 placed.....+$31.70.....(29)....8 Placed...-$10.10
Show Bets.....(19)...5 showed.....-$07.50.....(19)....4 showed..-$18.50
...............................................-$04.30............................-$55.30


........................Sept..30th-Oct.4th...
Win Bets .....(37).....9 won......+$49.60
Place Bets....(25).....8 placed..+$08.00
Show Bets....(8)......2 showed..-$02.50
.............................................+$55. 10


Win.....= 18.4%.......21 of 114
Place ..= 30.9%.......26 of 84
Show.. = 23.9%.......11 of 46

ROI Breakdown
Win....-02.4%
Place..+17.6%
Show..-30.9%

Total Amount Bet...=$488.00
Total Amount Won.=$483.50
..........................-$04.50

OVERALL ROI = -0.009

[Light]

Through 3 weeks of betting at Belmont..
OVERALL ROI = -0.009

Beats TLG.

[PaceAdvantage]

Beats TLG.Really? You still tracking?

[PaceAdvantage]

Beats TLG.I can't believe I didn't pick up on this earlier...thanks to an eagle-eyed reader for pointing this out to me:

Do you realize what you just did? You just congratulated CMOORE (while also feeling compelled to, once again, slight TLG) for doing EXACTLY what it is TLG CAN NOT DO...that is, have the ability to PICK AND CHOOSE which races to bet and HOW TO BET them...

I wonder how many "NO BET" races TLG would come up with if he were allowed to post selections just like CMOORE...and I wonder what his ROI would be after just such a run....

I also wonder what CMOORE's ROI would be had he been forced to track every single top pick.

Would it be better than -2.4% on the win end or would it be worse?

For you to congratulate CMOORE at the expense of TLG, while simultaneously staring at a thread fraught with "NO BETs" is the height of hypocrisy.

[Light]

For you to congratulate CMOORE at the expense of TLG, while simultaneously staring at a thread fraught with "NO BETs" is the height of hypocrisy.

I dont mean to hijack this thread and will not post here after today. I'm taking this liberty since Belmont is dark today.Hope you don't mind C.


I have been aware of CMOORE's ability before he started posting at this site. He was the the handicapper to beat when the "dailyracingcontests" web site was alive. He won many contests for real money and I was impressed. Whatever he does here is fine with me. He's already proven his ability time and time again.

TLG has never proved his ability to me when I have tracked him formally or informally. There are alot of other handicappers I have seen on the net who could kick TLG's ass in a handicapping contest. The only thing TLG has going for him is being a quasi celebrity and rubbing elbows with the big names such as Beyer and Crist. Other than that TLG hasn't proven anything to me but have zealous fans who shout everytime he hits something. Do you see people yelling that CMOORE hit a $56 horse? Do you see a new thread about CMOORE hitting a bomb and what a great handicapper he must be? No. Because he isn't a celebrity and because this really isn't that big of a deal when its combined in the overall performance of any horseplayer. You need those kinds of hits to survive. But when TLG hits them,its practically a national holiday.

[headhawg]

But when TLG hits them,its practically a national holiday.I stopped following the 10 billion posts that say that TLG can't pick worth squat and those that defend him. It's a waste of energy, really. But I got to admit -- that's a funny line.

[PaceAdvantage]

But when TLG hits them,its practically a national holiday.Total Bullshit.

[PaceAdvantage]

I dont mean to hijack this thread and will not post here after today. I'm taking this liberty since Belmont is dark today.Hope you don't mind C.


I have been aware of CMOORE's ability before he started posting at this site. He was the the handicapper to beat when the "dailyracingcontests" web site was alive. He won many contests for real money and I was impressed. Whatever he does here is fine with me. He's already proven his ability time and time again.

TLG has never proved his ability to me when I have tracked him formally or informally. There are alot of other handicappers I have seen on the net who could kick TLG's ass in a handicapping contest. The only thing TLG has going for him is being a quasi celebrity and rubbing elbows with the big names such as Beyer and Crist. Other than that TLG hasn't proven anything to me but have zealous fans who shout everytime he hits something. Do you see people yelling that CMOORE hit a $56 horse? Do you see a new thread about CMOORE hitting a bomb and what a great handicapper he must be? No. Because he isn't a celebrity and because this really isn't that big of a deal when its combined in the overall performance of any horseplayer. You need those kinds of hits to survive. But when TLG hits them,its practically a national holiday.I will take the above as your way of saying, in 1,000,000 words:

"Hey PA, you're right...I am being a hypocrite when I Hi-5 CMOORE and denigrate TLG simultaneously in a thread where, unlike TLG, CMOORE has been selectively picking his win bets...and despite hitting a $50 horse, STILL has a NEGATIVE WIN ROI...so yeah PA, you're right about me being a bit disingenuous with my back slaps and my put downs...thanks for setting me straight."

Cmoore can accept my challenge as well, anytime he wishes....

The challenge is now open to Cmoore, Light and Jonnielu...anytime you guys want to post your TOP THREE NUMBERS (no explanations necessary) on NYRA races for an extended head to head match up with TLG's picks on the NYRA site, you let me know, and I'll start tracking....

[cmoore]

I wonder how many "NO BET" races TLG would come up with if he were allowed to post selections just like CMOORE...and I wonder what his ROI would be after just such a run....

I also wonder what CMOORE's ROI would be had he been forced to track every single top pick.

Would it be better than -2.4% on the win end or would it be worse?

I've only listed 15 no bets in three weeks..In those no bet races..I do post a horse. 9 of the 15 have won. $30 bet..$27.50 won...My Win Roi drops to -3.1%..

[cmoore]

Cmoore can accept my challenge as well, anytime he wishes....

The challenge is now open to Cmoore, Light and Jonnielu...anytime you guys want to post your TOP THREE NUMBERS (no explanations necessary) on NYRA races for an extended head to head match up with TLG's picks on the NYRA site, you let me know, and I'll start tracking....

Top 3 numbers..How is this going to be scored? Win,Place, exacta, trifecta, DD and/or pick 3..How about we just go top pick vs. top pick..If top pick is scratched then you get the post time favorite.

Start keeping score PA..

I might start a Keeneland pick thread also..Anyone want to go heads up? :lol:



Start tracking PA..

[PaceAdvantage]

It will be scored top pick win bet only. If your top pick scratches, your second pick becomes the play...etc...etc...no post time favorites....if all three picks scratch for either picker for some reason, the race becomes a throw out for both pickers...

Now, I just have to figure out by what time your picks need to be posted....on the NYRA site it says TLG's picks are posted before scratches are announced...

[cmoore]

Wednesday, Oct. 7th

Hopefully the high winds don't cancel the card..

Race 1)..:2: Remarkable Storm...WP..Stormy Atlantic runners have the most turf wins the last 3 years. 48 more then More Than Ready. Three works in 28 days. Trainer 25% 46-90 days away with a positive roi..27% down one class..The trainer John Parisella gets a 349 layoff factor.Won on May 1st off a layoff and ran well 1st time out..Bet on turf or dirt..

Race 2)..:1: Australis Espress :1a: Wana Play...Win..This Hook and Ladder first timer purchased for 8k is entered into 35k mdn claiming....Contessa could of entered into a much lower level..This is a good sign. Hook and Ladder first timers have won 8 of 28 1st time out last 3 years. Wana play coming back in 6 days..Contessa gets a 462 layoff factor when bringing runners back in 6 days or less..

Race 3)..:4: Summer Palace..Win..Dueled in last 3 wide off a 55 day layoff..Managed to hold onto 3rd. Comes back with a clocker special work..1/33...But ranked 3/67 for the week..Looking for an improvement today..I'm not sure that 6 will repeat her last performance. That was her best in 7 races..They can have her at 8/5..

Race 4)..:8: Far Isle...WP..This Indian Charlie Filly likely to get the lead all by herself..If she runs a 47 half, she could wire this field..there's some good turf breeding in this race..but a mile might be too short chasing this lone speed type..

Race 5)..:4: Lion Cub...WP...Lion Heart first timers get a 862 layoff factor 1st time out..Over 8.5x the average..Clement gets a 283 layoff factor with firsters..Maragh should rate this Filly. Looks to be many in here who might go to the front..

Race 6)..:9: Singing Low...WPS..Appitude runners have 56 turf wins over the last 3 years. That's tied with Freud and only 4 behind Cherokee Run. First timers get a 144 layoff factor with firsters..Not fantastic but better then average. AWD for Appitudes offspring is 7.7 furlongs..That's the highest in this group. The broodmare sire gets a 335 layoff factor..3.5 times average..The trainer only has 6 turf wins in the last 3 years..But all 6 wins were at 8.2 to 8.5 furlongs and at a purse of 41k or higher..Worth a shot at 15-1..Probably will be even higher..Trainer stats will scare everyone away..

Race 7)..:10: Gimmee Getme...WPS...50/1 ML..Only a 2% chance...Really?? This horse could be even higher..Say 70-1, maybe 80-1..There lacks early speed in this race. Should fire out. You never know..The sire Rizzi gets a 293 layoff factor off 60+ days. The trainer Frank Martin wins at a 6% clip. But his best category is 46-90 days away...19% of 32 starts with a positive ROI..Swinging for the fences here..:eek:

Race 8)..:2: Stevil...No Bet...Last 2 are very good..Has been pulling away late. The 4 is the only one that can challenge early on..But Stevil doesnt' need the lead..So will be tough to beat.

Race 9)..:1: Everybodywantsone...WP..Finally draws an inside post..Gets blinkers on today..Should improve..If it's a non firm turf..even better..Montbrook gets a 45% clip out of 33 turf wins on the non firm turf course..

[Canarsie]

It will be scored top pick win bet only. If your top pick scratches, your second pick becomes the play...etc...etc...no post time favorites....if all three picks scratch for either picker for some reason, the race becomes a throw out for both pickers...
.

I must say this is what I like about the selections of this site (it is the best site period) better then any other on the net. Far too many people pick four or five horses in a race and say I have the winner or you should have had the exacta or tri. Mostly singles here or it's usually layed out how the wager should be constructed.

Good luck to cmoore as I see his passion for the game with each race his picks are given detailed analysis. My racing buddy and I agree on this as I like to hear a particular reason you like a horse the odds don't matter.

A BIG :ThmbUp: to all the posters who make their selections this way or tell you how a certain track will play out under certain conditions the info is priceless.

[cmoore]

Wednesday, Oct. 7th

Hopefully the high winds don't cancel the card..

Race 1)..:2: Remarkable Storm...WP..Stormy Atlantic runners have the most turf wins the last 3 years. 48 more then More Than Ready. Three works in 28 days. Trainer 25% 46-90 days away with a positive roi..27% down one class..The trainer John Parisella gets a 349 layoff factor.Won on May 1st off a layoff and ran well 1st time out..Bet on turf or dirt..

Race 2)..:1: Australis Espress :1a: Wana Play...Win..This Hook and Ladder first timer purchased for 8k is entered into 35k mdn claiming....Contessa could of entered into a much lower level..This is a good sign. Hook and Ladder first timers have won 8 of 28 1st time out last 3 years. Wana play coming back in 6 days..Contessa gets a 462 layoff factor when bringing runners back in 6 days or less..

Race 3)..:4: Summer Palace..Win..Dueled in last 3 wide off a 55 day layoff..Managed to hold onto 3rd. Comes back with a clocker special work..1/33...But ranked 3/67 for the week..Looking for an improvement today..I'm not sure that 6 will repeat her last performance. That was her best in 7 races..They can have her at 8/5..

Race 4)..:8: Far Isle...WP..This Indian Charlie Filly likely to get the lead all by herself..If she runs a 47 half, she could wire this field..there's some good turf breeding in this race..but a mile might be too short chasing this lone speed type..

Race 5)..:4: Lion Cub...WP...Lion Heart first timers get a 862 layoff factor 1st time out..Over 8.5x the average..Clement gets a 283 layoff factor with firsters..Maragh should rate this Filly. Looks to be many in here who might go to the front..

Race 6)..:9: Singing Low...WPS..Appitude runners have 56 turf wins over the last 3 years. That's tied with Freud and only 4 behind Cherokee Run. First timers get a 144 layoff factor with firsters..Not fantastic but better then average. AWD for Appitudes offspring is 7.7 furlongs..That's the highest in this group. The broodmare sire gets a 335 layoff factor..3.5 times average..The trainer only has 6 turf wins in the last 3 years..But all 6 wins were at 8.2 to 8.5 furlongs and at a purse of 41k or higher..Worth a shot at 15-1..Probably will be even higher..Trainer stats will scare everyone away..

Race 7)..:10: Gimmee Getme...WPS...50/1 ML..Only a 2% chance...Really?? This horse could be even higher..Say 70-1, maybe 80-1..There lacks early speed in this race. Should fire out. You never know..The sire Rizzi gets a 293 layoff factor off 60+ days. The trainer Frank Martin wins at a 6% clip. But his best category is 46-90 days away...19% of 32 starts with a positive ROI..Swinging for the fences here..:eek:

Race 8)..:2: Stevil...No Bet...Last 2 are very good..Has been pulling away late. The 4 is the only one that can challenge early on..But Stevil doesnt' need the lead..So will be tough to beat.

Race 9)..:1: Everybodywantsone...WP..Finally draws an inside post..Gets blinkers on today..Should improve..If it's a non firm turf..even better..Montbrook gets a 45% clip out of 33 turf wins on the non firm turf course..

Race 1)..:2: Remarkable Storm...WP................................out

Race 2)..:1: Australis Espress :1a: Wana Play...Win............2nd

Race 3)..:4: Summer Palace..Win...................................out. .

Race 4)..:8: Far Isle...WP......................................SCR ATCHED

Race 5)..:4: Lion Cub...WP........................................2n d $5.20

Race 6)..:9: Singing Low...WPS...........I think he was dead last..:bang:

Race 7)..:10: Gimmee Getme...WPS............................SCRATCHED

Race 8)..:2: Stevil...No Bet..........................................Won 3.30

Race 9)..:1: Everybodywantsone...WP.........................4th

Bet..$22.00
Won.$05.20
......-$16.80

[cmoore]

Thursday, Oct. 8th

Now this card took some time to handicapp..Wide open races..

Race 1)..:5: She's A Ketch..WP...This Rahy filly ran an even race when it comes to pace figures..(77 76/77). She should rate behind the 3 possible front runners..The Elusive Quality, Red bullet and Strong Hope runners. Rahy runners have 102 turf wins last 3 years..Unbridled's Song comes in 2nd with 73. The trainer Chad Brown is 3 of 11 2nd grass race and 3 of 9 2nd route race..Both with a positive ROI..With an 8-1 ML..This looks like the value play..

Race 2)..:2: Bank The Eight...WP...Distorted Humor first timers have won 23 of 56 debut starts as a 2 year old on the dirt..That's a 41% clip..The average is around 27% from that site I get this information from..9 works in about 66 days..Dutrow is on fire..7 for 11..Clocker special work on the 30th..5/38 for the day..But ranked 2/29 for the week for 2 year olds..We just might get a decent price. The 1,3 and 5 are all lower ML odds..

Race 3)..:2: Them There Eyes...WPS..Came off a 324 day layoff back in July and closed pretty pretty pretty good (lol), against a tough bunch..Next race was a sloppy track at monouth..Then a soft turf race at Saratoga. Should get a firm or close to firm track today..There's 5 top turf sprint sire runners in this one. The 8 is sure to push the pace. Flatter runners are not known to be turf sprinters..So for her to win this. Unlikely. We just need her to be the rabbit. Hopefully this 2 closes late and wins or gets a piece at a big price..

Race 4)..:2: Tiger Willie...WP..Improved in last with blinkers off and 1st time turf at 24-1..Stretches out and likely to improve..Trainer moving up to MSW..trainer 0 for 6 when doing that. But to me, it show confidence in the horse. Six races is a low sample anyways. The 1/1A will be overbet imo..zapster has already failed as the favorite twice..

Race 5)..:10: Donna's Sandee..WPS..Moved up in class 2 races back..(from a 108 to 110 race rating). Ran an even race. Stretches out and gets blinkers on in last..Showed more early speed. Race shape for the Sept. 11th race was a +14 +15..The 1 for 38 record and 4% trainer will proably make the odds go over 20-1..Worth a shot..

Race 6)..:8: Farawaycat..WPS..Sire E Dubai has average turf figures. The broodmare sire Mountain Cat gets a 603 layoff factor 1st time out..That's 6x the average..Very good work tab..10 works in about 2 months..Trainer Barclay Tagg gets a 153 layoff factor with first timers. Now that's with 2 year olds..So that 6% of 33 debut turf stat on my pps is all age groups..Plus Tagg has 131 turf winners over the last 3 years..That's 2nd to Clement..

Race 7)..:9: Sly..Win..Dropping down. Has ran above par last 3 on turf..

Race 8)..:1: Retriever..WP..Ignore last on the turf..Previous 2 he shows some very fast late pace figures..108 and a 116..The 108 was on a muddy track into a slow pace..The 116 was also into a slow pace. Ranked number one in 7 categories on my software..

Race 9)..:9: Figgy's Freud..WP..Stalked 3 wide in last and ran a 90 late pace and a 70 speed rating..That was the highest figure last out..Will have plenty of speed to run at today..

[cmoore]

Thursday, Oct. 8th

Now this card took some time to handicapp..Wide open races..

Race 1)..:5: She's A Ketch..WP...This Rahy filly ran an even race when it comes to pace figures..(77 76/77). She should rate behind the 3 possible front runners..The Elusive Quality, Red bullet and Strong Hope runners. Rahy runners have 102 turf wins last 3 years..Unbridled's Song comes in 2nd with 73. The trainer Chad Brown is 3 of 11 2nd grass race and 3 of 9 2nd route race..Both with a positive ROI..With an 8-1 ML..This looks like the value play..

Race 2)..:2: Bank The Eight...WP...Distorted Humor first timers have won 23 of 56 debut starts as a 2 year old on the dirt..That's a 41% clip..The average is around 27% from that site I get this information from..9 works in about 66 days..Dutrow is on fire..7 for 11..Clocker special work on the 30th..5/38 for the day..But ranked 2/29 for the week for 2 year olds..We just might get a decent price. The 1,3 and 5 are all lower ML odds..

Race 3)..:2: Them There Eyes...WPS..Came off a 324 day layoff back in July and closed pretty pretty pretty good (lol), against a tough bunch..Next race was a sloppy track at monouth..Then a soft turf race at Saratoga. Should get a firm or close to firm track today..There's 5 top turf sprint sire runners in this one. The 8 is sure to push the pace. Flatter runners are not known to be turf sprinters..So for her to win this. Unlikely. We just need her to be the rabbit. Hopefully this 2 closes late and wins or gets a piece at a big price..

Race 4)..:2: Tiger Willie...WP..Improved in last with blinkers off and 1st time turf at 24-1..Stretches out and likely to improve..Trainer moving up to MSW..trainer 0 for 6 when doing that. But to me, it show confidence in the horse. Six races is a low sample anyways. The 1/1A will be overbet imo..zapster has already failed as the favorite twice..

Race 5)..:10: Donna's Sandee..WPS..Moved up in class 2 races back..(from a 108 to 110 race rating). Ran an even race. Stretches out and gets blinkers on in last..Showed more early speed. Race shape for the Sept. 11th race was a +14 +15..The 1 for 38 record and 4% trainer will proably make the odds go over 20-1..Worth a shot..

Race 6)..:8: Farawaycat..WPS..Sire E Dubai has average turf figures. The broodmare sire Mountain Cat gets a 603 layoff factor 1st time out..That's 6x the average..Very good work tab..10 works in about 2 months..Trainer Barclay Tagg gets a 153 layoff factor with first timers. Now that's with 2 year olds..So that 6% of 33 debut turf stat on my pps is all age groups..Plus Tagg has 131 turf winners over the last 3 years..That's 2nd to Clement..

Race 7)..:9: Sly..Win..Dropping down. Has ran above par last 3 on turf..

Race 8)..:1: Retriever..WP..Ignore last on the turf..Previous 2 he shows some very fast late pace figures..108 and a 116..The 108 was on a muddy track into a slow pace..The 116 was also into a slow pace. Ranked number one in 7 categories on my software..

Race 9)..:9: Figgy's Freud..WP..Stalked 3 wide in last and ran a 90 late pace and a 70 speed rating..That was the highest figure last out..Will have plenty of speed to run at today..

Race 1)..:5: She's A Ketch..WP......................SCRATCHED

Race 2)..:2: Bank The Eight...WP....................2nd $4.20

Race 3)..:2: Them There Eyes...WPS.....................out

Race 4)..:2: Tiger Willie...WP................................out

Race 5)..:10: Donna's Sandee..WPS.......................out

Race 6)..:8: Farawaycat..WPS.............................out

Race 7)..:9: Sly..Win....................................2nd

Race 8)..:1: Retriever..WP...........................2nd $4.20

Race 9)..:9: Figgy's Freud..WP.......................3rd

Bet....$36.00
Won...$08.40........
.......-$27.60....

[cmoore]

Friday, Oct. 9th

Race 1)..:4: Gimme Credit..WP..Closed 6 3/4 lengths 2 races back to finish 4th...Blinkers on in last and ran closer to the pace..Should settle in right behind the 2 and get by late..If race is off the turf..This Artax runner likley to run imo..

Race 2)..:10: Wise Choice...WPS..Ran a very good race on the slop in last..Made a nice move to take the lead without being asked much..The 7/5 favorite reeled her in down the stretch..Two decent training track workouts..Did run a 75 speed rating on the turf back in April, which would be competitive against this field..Should be a huge price..Betting turf or dirt..

Race 3)..:1: Bubby Jane...No Bet..Has won 5 of 7 on the turf..Looks like the one to beat..If off the turf then the 9 will move in as the dominate favorite..Still skipping..

Race 4)..:3: Hudson Landing..WP..Huge improvement 2nd time out to get up for 3rd..Switches to turf to day. Excellent work on Sept. 26th..Tr.t 4F :48 B..5/58..Also has the highest class rating last time out..

Race 5)..:7: Amelia The Cat..Win..Ran 8 points above par 2 races back on a good track. Ran an even race..All pace figures are an 85..This 3 will get hammered down to probably even money..Could get 4-1 or better on this 7.

Race 6)..:6: Cliff Meadows...Win..Listed run style is an EP...Has been way off the pace last 2 races..Has won 3 of 8 on the turf..Competitive speed figs..Likely 2nd or 3rd choice..The 1 will likely get the lead as the possible favorite..Wire winners are 1 for 18 at 8.5 furlongs..Got to go against..

Race 7)..:5: Penalty Due...WPS..Looks to be a very weak field..All have ran well below par. This 8 at 8/5 is insane..Red Bullet has won 1st time out 10 of 23 times over the last 3 years..A 1.75 SPI is top in this field..Layoff factors for the sire and broodmare sire are a 149 and 186 with 100 being the average..His last 4 works are pretty good..Should be a big price with the 0 for 26 trainer with debut mdn claimers. He's 20% itm though. So second place should still pay over 12 bucks..

Race 8)..:2: Mean Demand..WP..A 118.3 class rating in last..Looks to be in top form..Four runners dropping down and in for a tag..Which one will fire is any ones guess..Plenty of front speed in this race also..This 2 should get good position early and fly on by stretch..

Race 9)..:1: All On Me/:1a: Unlikely Hero...WPS...Now doubt that this Whywhywhy runner is going to fire out and try to get the lead..Whether he holds it is another question..The 1 All On Me just ran a mile and above par along with a few others in here who have ran above par. Should be in a nice stalking position early. 15-1 ML seems like a gift.

[cmoore]

Friday, Oct. 9th

Race 1)..:4: Gimme Credit..WP..Closed 6 3/4 lengths 2 races back to finish 4th...Blinkers on in last and ran closer to the pace..Should settle in right behind the 2 and get by late..If race is off the turf..This Artax runner likley to run imo..

Race 2)..:10: Wise Choice...WPS..Ran a very good race on the slop in last..Made a nice move to take the lead without being asked much..The 7/5 favorite reeled her in down the stretch..Two decent training track workouts..Did run a 75 speed rating on the turf back in April, which would be competitive against this field..Should be a huge price..Betting turf or dirt..

Race 3)..:1: Bubby Jane...No Bet..Has won 5 of 7 on the turf..Looks like the one to beat..If off the turf then the 9 will move in as the dominate favorite..Still skipping..

Race 4)..:3: Hudson Landing..WP..Huge improvement 2nd time out to get up for 3rd..Switches to turf to day. Excellent work on Sept. 26th..Tr.t 4F :48 B..5/58..Also has the highest class rating last time out..

Race 5)..:7: Amelia The Cat..Win..Ran 8 points above par 2 races back on a good track. Ran an even race..All pace figures are an 85..This 3 will get hammered down to probably even money..Could get 4-1 or better on this 7.

Race 6)..:6: Cliff Meadows...Win..Listed run style is an EP...Has been way off the pace last 2 races..Has won 3 of 8 on the turf..Competitive speed figs..Likely 2nd or 3rd choice..The 1 will likely get the lead as the possible favorite..Wire winners are 1 for 18 at 8.5 furlongs..Got to go against..

Race 7)..:5: Penalty Due...WPS..Looks to be a very weak field..All have ran well below par. This 8 at 8/5 is insane..Red Bullet has won 1st time out 10 of 23 times over the last 3 years..A 1.75 SPI is top in this field..Layoff factors for the sire and broodmare sire are a 149 and 186 with 100 being the average..His last 4 works are pretty good..Should be a big price with the 0 for 26 trainer with debut mdn claimers. He's 20% itm though. So second place should still pay over 12 bucks..

Race 8)..:2: Mean Demand..WP..A 118.3 class rating in last..Looks to be in top form..Four runners dropping down and in for a tag..Which one will fire is any ones guess..Plenty of front speed in this race also..This 2 should get good position early and fly on by stretch..

Race 9)..:1: All On Me/:1a: Unlikely Hero...WPS...Now doubt that this Whywhywhy runner is going to fire out and try to get the lead..Whether he holds it is another question..The 1 All On Me just ran a mile and above par along with a few others in here who have ran above par. Should be in a nice stalking position early. 15-1 ML seems like a gift.

Race 1)..:4: Gimme Credit..WP......................3rd

Race 2)..:10: Wise Choice...WPS......................out

Race 3)..:1: Bubby Jane...No Bet......................Won..no bet

Race 4)..:3: Hudson Landing..WP...................2nd $6.50

Race 5)..:7: Amelia The Cat..Win.....................3rd

Race 6)..:6: Cliff Meadows...Win.....................Won $10.60

Race 7)..:5: Penalty Due...WPS......................out

Race 8)..:2: Mean Demand..WP.....................out

Race 9)..:1: All On Me/:1a: Unlikely Hero...WPS........out

Won..$17.10
Bet...$34.00
.......-$16.90

[cmoore]

Saturday, Oct. 10th

Race 1)..:3: Keeping The Honor...No Bet...Ran decent off a long layoff in last..Speed rating was 2nd best last time out..Comes back with a 8/72 clocker special work. Drops down today. A likely 8/5 favorite..

Race 2)..:7: Forty Prayers..WP..Checked break and was 17 lengths back at the 1st call. Ran 7 wide to get up for 2nd..Getting blinkers on. Trainer 25% 1st time blnkers..The 3,4 and 5 could duel early..This 7 should improve a ton with a better start and at a price.

Race 3)..:2: Only A Vision..No Bet..Last 2 speed ratings look much the best. The Had a 3.6 class advantage figure last time compared to field..The 1 and 3 have shown to run in the low 80's. Form is there question mark though..Passing race..

Race 4)..:3: Grassy...WP..Broke slow..Made a strong 5 wide move to get up..Much the best considering the trip. This El Prado runner should be able to run ALL DAY LONG..Six E/EP runners in this one..Plenty of early speed to run at..

Race 5)..:11: Up For Love..WP..More Thean Ready is the top turf breeding in race with 101 turf winners from that sire last 3 years..Broodmare sire and trainer get a 272 and 204 layoff figure off 60+ days..Ran well 1st time out on the turf. Worth a shot at a price..

Race 6)..:1: Raceland..WP..Blinkers on 2 races back..Showed good early speed before tiring..Jockey rates him on Sept. 24th and gets 2nd at 41-1. Just a repeat of last can win this one..A 0 for 35 jock and a 2% trainer should keep the odds up..

Race 7)..:1: Exton..WP..Taking Rodriguez again..Yikes!!!..A paceless race and should get good position early..Last 2 speed ratings are equal or better then fields last two except for the 6's race 2 back..

Race 8)..:3: Nonna Mia..Win..7.8 AWD....4.03 SPI (2nd behind the 5)..When was the last time you saw a Empire Maker runner with so much early speed..This one should be able to run a mile easily..Not sure if Dominguez will fire for lead or rate. Could get 5/2.

Race 9)..:1: Super saver..Win..Ran a 96...104..and 103 pace figure in lat on the mud going a mile. Maria's Mon gets a 64% of 11 winners at this distance in this rae type. Also number one in wins in purse over 40k in this race type..Should fire out again and try to wire field..

Race 10)..:7: J L Berstein...WPS..Improved 2 back. Closed 11 lengths to get up for 2nd..Comes back and wins easily on the dirt..Comes back with 2 good works..Back on the turf today..Slight advantage at this distance from Berstein runners on the turf..Third best turf breeding in race counting wins last 3 years. Looks to be improving in form..15-1 is a great price..

[cmoore]

Saturday, Oct. 10th

Race 1)..:3: Keeping The Honor...No Bet...Ran decent off a long layoff in last..Speed rating was 2nd best last time out..Comes back with a 8/72 clocker special work. Drops down today. A likely 8/5 favorite..

Race 2)..:7: Forty Prayers..WP..Checked break and was 17 lengths back at the 1st call. Ran 7 wide to get up for 2nd..Getting blinkers on. Trainer 25% 1st time blnkers..The 3,4 and 5 could duel early..This 7 should improve a ton with a better start and at a price.

Race 3)..:2: Only A Vision..No Bet..Last 2 speed ratings look much the best. The Had a 3.6 class advantage figure last time compared to field..The 1 and 3 have shown to run in the low 80's. Form is there question mark though..Passing race..

Race 4)..:3: Grassy...WP..Broke slow..Made a strong 5 wide move to get up..Much the best considering the trip. This El Prado runner should be able to run ALL DAY LONG..Six E/EP runners in this one..Plenty of early speed to run at..

Race 5)..:11: Up For Love..WP..More Thean Ready is the top turf breeding in race with 101 turf winners from that sire last 3 years..Broodmare sire and trainer get a 272 and 204 layoff figure off 60+ days..Ran well 1st time out on the turf. Worth a shot at a price..

Race 6)..:1: Raceland..WP..Blinkers on 2 races back..Showed good early speed before tiring..Jockey rates him on Sept. 24th and gets 2nd at 41-1. Just a repeat of last can win this one..A 0 for 35 jock and a 2% trainer should keep the odds up..

Race 7)..:1: Exton..WP..Taking Rodriguez again..Yikes!!!..A paceless race and should get good position early..Last 2 speed ratings are equal or better then fields last two except for the 6's race 2 back..

Race 8)..:3: Nonna Mia..Win..7.8 AWD....4.03 SPI (2nd behind the 5)..When was the last time you saw a Empire Maker runner with so much early speed..This one should be able to run a mile easily..Not sure if Dominguez will fire for lead or rate. Could get 5/2.

Race 9)..:1: Super saver..Win..Ran a 96...104..and 103 pace figure in lat on the mud going a mile. Maria's Mon gets a 64% of 11 winners at this distance in this rae type. Also number one in wins in purse over 40k in this race type..Should fire out again and try to wire field..

Race 10)..:7: J L Berstein...WPS..Improved 2 back. Closed 11 lengths to get up for 2nd..Comes back and wins easily on the dirt..Comes back with 2 good works..Back on the turf today..Slight advantage at this distance from Berstein runners on the turf..Third best turf breeding in race counting wins last 3 years. Looks to be improving in form..15-1 is a great price..

Race 1)..:3: Keeping The Honor...No Bet............Won $4.30
Race 2)..:7: Forty Prayers..WP.........SCRATCHED

Race 3)..:2: Only A Vision..No Bet.................won $4.50

Race 4)..:3: Grassy...WP...............................4th

Race 5)..:11: Up For Love..WP....................out

Race 6)..:1: Raceland..WP.........WON $20.00 $9.80..Raceland actually ran 3rd..The entry won and it counts on a win ticket..A little luck doesn't hurt..
Race 7)..:1: Exton..WP...............................out

Race 8)..:3: Nonna Mia..Win.......................3rd

Race 9)..:1: Super saver..Win.....................out
Race 10)..:7: J L Berstein...WPS.................out

Won....$29.80
Bet......$26.00
.........+$03.80

[cmoore]

Sunday, Oct. 11th

Race 1).. :5: Bocce Ball...WP..Ignore turf race..Steadied on Aug 6th at Monmouth. No comment in the pps about it..Lost at least 2 lengths and any momentum. Should rebound today and run a much better race..Trainer is 4 for 11 off a 46-90 day layoff..

Race 2).. :6: Flourish...Win..Top sire at winning first time out over the last 3 years..Unbridled's Song offspring a close 2nd percentage wise with 18 less tries..2.82 SPI figure..Unbridled Song runners are first in spi. The Dam and Dam's sire spi figs are by far the best in this field..The Dam has 7 starters with 4 wins and 3 stakes winners..The 2 who is a 1.7 million dollar purchase didn't fire 1st time out at 6/5..That was against a relatively weak MSW field also..Got to go against the 2 and 8.

Race 3).. :5: Fuhrever Dancing..Win..Has led at the first call last 5 of 6 and the 2nd call 4 of 6..Not a whole lot of early speed in this one. I think he gets the lead and never looks back..

Race 4).. :3: Girolamo...No Bet...Came off a 309 day layoff two back and won impressively..Backs it up on Sept. 13th against a little tougher field and wins with ease. Is in top form. Will include in DD and pick 3's..

Race 5).. :4: Evil Genius..WP..With the lack of early pace in race. This Five Star Day 2nd time starter might get the lead easily..Hopped in first start. Taken off the track and shows 9 works in about 60 days. A 5k purchase and still bringing back in MSW is a goo sign.

Race 6).. :4: Bad Action...WP..Closed fast in 3 races before Meadowlands. Got the 11th post there and ran into a slow pace to get 4th..Looking for an improvement today. Is 8 of 13 1st or 2nd this year..

Race 7).. :5: Sea Road..WP..Tale of the Cat is a top turf sprint sire. First time starters win 2x (199 layoff factor) the average 1st asking on the turf.

Race 8).. :1: Louisa Mae...WP..checked break and 5 wide in 1st start..Ran a pretty much even race. Switches to turf today. Trainer only has 14 starts this year. Three that have won..All three were a dirt to turf move..That's 3 of 9 won with a ROI of +$2.36. Louis Quatorize is on my top turf sprint list..

Race 9).. :3: Pinckney....NO BET..It looks like a 2 horse race between the 3 and 7. The 3 ran a 113 late pace two races back on a firm course..Ran into a very slow pace in last. Closed, but could only get 2nd. Shuld return to his form 2 races back.

Race 10).. :12: Synchronicity...WP...Made up several lengths late to get 4th. Looked to have something left and should like the added distance. Only ran 3.5 lengths behind the 5 and was gaining.

[cmoore]

Sunday, Oct. 11th

Race 1).. :5: Bocce Ball...WP..Ignore turf race..Steadied on Aug 6th at Monmouth. No comment in the pps about it..Lost at least 2 lengths and any momentum. Should rebound today and run a much better race..Trainer is 4 for 11 off a 46-90 day layoff..

Race 2).. :6: Flourish...Win..Top sire at winning first time out over the last 3 years..Unbridled's Song offspring a close 2nd percentage wise with 18 less tries..2.82 SPI figure..Unbridled Song runners are first in spi. The Dam and Dam's sire spi figs are by far the best in this field..The Dam has 7 starters with 4 wins and 3 stakes winners..The 2 who is a 1.7 million dollar purchase didn't fire 1st time out at 6/5..That was against a relatively weak MSW field also..Got to go against the 2 and 8.

Race 3).. :5: Fuhrever Dancing..Win..Has led at the first call last 5 of 6 and the 2nd call 4 of 6..Not a whole lot of early speed in this one. I think he gets the lead and never looks back..

Race 4).. :3: Girolamo...No Bet...Came off a 309 day layoff two back and won impressively..Backs it up on Sept. 13th against a little tougher field and wins with ease. Is in top form. Will include in DD and pick 3's..

Race 5).. :4: Evil Genius..WP..With the lack of early pace in race. This Five Star Day 2nd time starter might get the lead easily..Hopped in first start. Taken off the track and shows 9 works in about 60 days. A 5k purchase and still bringing back in MSW is a goo sign.

Race 6).. :4: Bad Action...WP..Closed fast in 3 races before Meadowlands. Got the 11th post there and ran into a slow pace to get 4th..Looking for an improvement today. Is 8 of 13 1st or 2nd this year..

Race 7).. :5: Sea Road..WP..Tale of the Cat is a top turf sprint sire. First time starters win 2x (199 layoff factor) the average 1st asking on the turf.

Race 8).. :1: Louisa Mae...WP..checked break and 5 wide in 1st start..Ran a pretty much even race. Switches to turf today. Trainer only has 14 starts this year. Three that have won..All three were a dirt to turf move..That's 3 of 9 won with a ROI of +$2.36. Louis Quatorize is on my top turf sprint list..

Race 9).. :3: Pinckney....NO BET..It looks like a 2 horse race between the 3 and 7. The 3 ran a 113 late pace two races back on a firm course..Ran into a very slow pace in last. Closed, but could only get 2nd. Shuld return to his form 2 races back.

Race 10).. :12: Synchronicity...WP...Made up several lengths late to get 4th. Looked to have something left and should like the added distance. Only ran 3.5 lengths behind the 5 and was gaining.

Race 1).. :5: Bocce Ball...WP..................SCRATCHED

Race 2).. :6: Flourish...Win......................out

Race 3).. :5: Fuhrever Dancing..Win............2nd

Race 4).. :3: Girolamo...No Bet.......................won 3.60

Race 5).. :4: Evil Genius..WP.......................out

Race 6).. :4: Bad Action...WP....................WON...$15.40....$7. 30

Race 7).. :5: Sea Road..WP........................2nd...$3.70

Race 8).. :1: Louisa Mae...WP......................out

Race 9).. :3: Pinckney....NO BET....................4th

Race 10).. :12: Synchronicity...WP................out


Won..$26.40
Bet...$24.00
......+$02.40

[cmoore]

Monday, Oct. 12th

Race 1)..:1: Copper Cascade...WP..Didn't show much on turf back in July..Comes Back in August with blinkers on and closes from 10th to get 2nd at 11-1..Then Sept. 5th he runs much closer to the early pace and draws clear..Shortens up today and gets the rail. Will be dangerous at a mile..

Race 2)..:2: Yo Karakorum...Win...Has led at the 1st and 2nd call in a majority of races..Don't think it will change here..Prado is riding with confidence. He has won his last 9 of 27 starts..

Race 3)..:3: Acronym...No Bet...Her last race was very impressive..A 119.7 class rating for that performance..The two is a distant second.

Race 4)..:8: Tizsilk...No Bet...2009 record is 7-4-2-0..The 4's record is
18-1-5-4....The 4 just hasn't been winning lately..Tizsilk has been drawing off with ease of late..Singling in exotics..

Race 5)..:1: Book...WPS..Very little early speed and that should get this one on top rather easily..A turtles pace is what we need. A :25, :50 and 1:14 and just maybe this 15-1 shot can wire'em.. The trainer Callejas is 3 of 11 at distances of 9-10 furlongs on the turf..

Race 6)..:1: Stratton's Girl...Win..Should be stalking in 3rd. Right behind the 2 and 8..The race should set up for her perfectly..She showed a nice improvement off that route race at Finger Lakes..A 112.5 class rating. Easily the best figure in last..

Race 7)..:3: Katskill Bay...WP..Has checked start last 2 and still ran a good race each time..There could be a couple runners that challenge the 1 horse. Can the one repeat those performances on a dry track? This 3 should be running late..The 2% jockey should keep the odds between 4-1 and 7-1..

Race 8)..:6: Legally Blanca..WP..Made a big move up in class (3.2 race rating points) in last and got up for the win..Received a 118.2 class rating. Tops last time out..12-1 seems very high for this Northern Afleet runner.

Race 9)..:5: Itch..WP..Only EP Style in race..Prado could take him to the lead today..The Oct. 9th workout sticks out..:47.4 B...2/89. 12-1 seems like a very good price..

Race 10)..:11: By The Sky..WP..Sky Mesa runners are 6 of 24 at this distance in this race type over the last 3 years..Bumped break in last..Should be in the top 5 early on..This 2 will be the rabbit in the race..Chance at a huge price.

[toetoe]

I'm with you on Legally Blanca.

There ... I've possibly jinxed you in race :8: as I risked doing with Andy in race :10: .

Go, you two. :ThmbUp: .

[cmoore]

Monday, Oct. 12th

Race 1)..:1: Copper Cascade...WP..Didn't show much on turf back in July..Comes Back in August with blinkers on and closes from 10th to get 2nd at 11-1..Then Sept. 5th he runs much closer to the early pace and draws clear..Shortens up today and gets the rail. Will be dangerous at a mile..

Race 2)..:2: Yo Karakorum...Win...Has led at the 1st and 2nd call in a majority of races..Don't think it will change here..Prado is riding with confidence. He has won his last 9 of 27 starts..

Race 3)..:3: Acronym...No Bet...Her last race was very impressive..A 119.7 class rating for that performance..The two is a distant second.

Race 4)..:8: Tizsilk...No Bet...2009 record is 7-4-2-0..The 4's record is
18-1-5-4....The 4 just hasn't been winning lately..Tizsilk has been drawing off with ease of late..Singling in exotics..

Race 5)..:1: Book...WPS..Very little early speed and that should get this one on top rather easily..A turtles pace is what we need. A :25, :50 and 1:14 and just maybe this 15-1 shot can wire'em.. The trainer Callejas is 3 of 11 at distances of 9-10 furlongs on the turf..

Race 6)..:1: Stratton's Girl...Win..Should be stalking in 3rd. Right behind the 2 and 8..The race should set up for her perfectly..She showed a nice improvement off that route race at Finger Lakes..A 112.5 class rating. Easily the best figure in last..

Race 7)..:3: Katskill Bay...WP..Has checked start last 2 and still ran a good race each time..There could be a couple runners that challenge the 1 horse. Can the one repeat those performances on a dry track? This 3 should be running late..The 2% jockey should keep the odds between 4-1 and 7-1..

Race 8)..:6: Legally Blanca..WP..Made a big move up in class (3.2 race rating points) in last and got up for the win..Received a 118.2 class rating. Tops last time out..12-1 seems very high for this Northern Afleet runner.

Race 9)..:5: Itch..WP..Only EP Style in race..Prado could take him to the lead today..The Oct. 9th workout sticks out..:47.4 B...2/89. 12-1 seems like a very good price..

Race 10)..:11: By The Sky..WP..Sky Mesa runners are 6 of 24 at this distance in this race type over the last 3 years..Bumped break in last..Should be in the top 5 early on..This 2 will be the rabbit in the race..Chance at a huge price.


Race 1)..:1: Copper Cascade...WP........................out

Race 2)..:2: Yo Karakorum...Win...........................3rd

Race 3)..:3: Acronym...No Bet.......................................Won $3.40

Race 4)..:8: Tizsilk...No Bet...........................................2nd

Race 5)..:1: Book...WPS......................................ou t

Race 6)..:1: Stratton's Girl...Win...........................3rd

Race 7)..:3: Katskill Bay...WP...............................4th

Race 8)..:6: Legally Blanca..WP............................4th

Race 9)..:5: Itch..WP........................................ou t

Race 10)..:11: By The Sky..WP........................SCRATCHED

Bet....$26.00
Won....ZERO
.........-$26.00...........A bad week to say the least..

[cmoore]

Thursday, Oct. 15th

Forecast: A few showers in the morning becoming steady in the afternoon. Cold..high near 45. Winds NE at 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 90%. Rainfall near a quarter of an inch..I would say off the turf likely.

Race 1).. :9: Risky Gamble..WP..Turf or Dirt...Looks to have the most early speed in race..E/Ep have won last 4 of 5 at this distance on the inner turf..If on dirt..One of two runners who have won on an off track..

Race 2).. :8: Alltiffedoff...WP..The 6 Quick Money has failed twice as the favorite..He improved 23 speed points..It looks like a small bounce is coming. This sire Strategic Mission is firing way better then average for first timers on the turf. 3.62 SPI figure is second behind the 11..If off the turf..Mud stats are very good also from this sires offspring.

Race 3).. :1: Ciminella...Win...Looks like a speed duel probable in this one..The 4,5,6 and 7 all look to have good early speed..Espinoza needs to break decent and sit on the rail and make a nice sweeping move late..Can one of these jocks run the right race, just once..

Race 4).. :5: Hangingbyathread..No Bet..Has been facing much tougher company. The one to beat..

Race 5).. :10: Big Grey..WP..Much closer to pace in last and drew off easily. From 5 lengths back to 5.5 lengths on top..These Tapit runners are a classy bunch..Betting turf or dirt..

Race 6).. :3: Coljak...WP..Clocker special work on Oct. 9th..2.87 Spi is highest in race..Average 1st time out stats..Sire stats on the mud from the brisnet pps is 37%..The broodmare sire gets 6 winners of the 20 on the mud last 3 years..This 5 will be over bet and worth a shot to bet against..

Race 7).. :1a: My Lucky Way to win....+ :7: Too Critical to wp...Forest Camp and Hook And Ladder top 2 sires at this distance under 6 furlongs..The 1A has a clocker work for the week..Top mud sire also at 22% from the race reports..The 1 and 1A have the lowest Sire average winning distance..5.7 and 5.9 AWD..The 7 Too Critical showed excellent early pace in last with lasix 1st time..Comment reads rushed up. This 6 is going to be another over bet favorite..Why would anyone bet on a likely 8/5 when the comments read..Belatedly rally...or 4 wide second best..Plus she's shortening up..

Race 8).. :6: Mississippi Man..Win..I don't think any other jockey will even think of challenging this 6 early..If they do it's pretty much suicide..They're just gonna hope this Disco Rico mud specialist backs up..Mississippi runs well off layoffs and runs well on the likely mud we'll see today..Trainer gets a 174 layoff factor off 60+ days..Average is 100..

Race 9).. :13: Why Then..WP...MTO entry..1/90 bullet work on Oct. 9th...ranked 1/35 for 3 year olds in the last week..Second time lasix..Trainer is 28% 2nd off layoff with a + 1.40 roi..

[cmoore]

Thursday, Oct. 15th

Forecast: A few showers in the morning becoming steady in the afternoon. Cold..high near 45. Winds NE at 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 90%. Rainfall near a quarter of an inch..I would say off the turf likely.

Race 1).. :9: Risky Gamble..WP..Turf or Dirt...Looks to have the most early speed in race..E/Ep have won last 4 of 5 at this distance on the inner turf..If on dirt..One of two runners who have won on an off track..

Race 2).. :8: Alltiffedoff...WP..The 6 Quick Money has failed twice as the favorite..He improved 23 speed points..It looks like a small bounce is coming. This sire Strategic Mission is firing way better then average for first timers on the turf. 3.62 SPI figure is second behind the 11..If off the turf..Mud stats are very good also from this sires offspring.

Race 3).. :1: Ciminella...Win...Looks like a speed duel probable in this one..The 4,5,6 and 7 all look to have good early speed..Espinoza needs to break decent and sit on the rail and make a nice sweeping move late..Can one of these jocks run the right race, just once..

Race 4).. 5 Hangingbyathread..No Bet..Has been facing much tougher company. The one to beat..

Race 5).. 10 Big Grey..WP..Much closer to pace in last and drew off easily. From 5 lengths back to 5.5 lengths on top..These Tapit runners are a classy bunch..Betting turf or dirt..

Race 6).. :3: Coljak...WP..Clocker special work on Oct. 9th..2.87 Spi is highest in race..Average 1st time out stats..Sire stats on the mud from the brisnet pps is 37%..The broodmare sire gets 6 winners of the 20 on the mud last 3 years..This 5 will be over bet and worth a shot to bet against..

Race 7).. :1a: My Lucky Way to win....+ :7: Too Critical to wp...Forest Camp and Hook And Ladder top 2 sires at this distance under 6 furlongs..The 1A has a clocker work for the week..Top mud sire also at 22% from the race reports..The 1 and 1A have the lowest Sire average winning distance..5.7 and 5.9 AWD..The 7 Too Critical showed excellent early pace in last with lasix 1st time..Comment reads rushed up. This 6 is going to be another over bet favorite..Why would anyone bet on a likely 8/5 when the comments read..Belatedly rally...or 4 wide second best..Plus she's shortening up..

Race 8).. :6: Mississippi Man..Win..I don't think any other jockey will even think of challenging this 6 early..If they do it's pretty much suicide..They're just gonna hope this Disco Rico mud specialist backs up..Mississippi runs well off layoffs and runs well on the likely mud we'll see today..Trainer gets a 174 layoff factor off 60+ days..Average is 100..

Race 9)..13 Why Then..WP...MTO entry..1/90 bullet work on Oct. 9th...ranked 1/35 for 3 year olds in the last week..Second time lasix..Trainer is 28% 2nd off layoff with a + 1.40 roi..

Race 1).. :9: Risky Gamble..WP..Turf or Dirt................3rd.....Bocachica obviously knew he was the speed of the speed. But he still runs a 22 flat and tires. Maybe a sub 22 second first quarter is the answer next time out...:rolleyes:

Race 2).. :8: Alltiffedoff...WP............out......Well the 6 failed again as the favorite...Third time in a row and I get absolutely squat for it..:bang:

Race 3).. :1: Ciminella...Win......................out....Didn't run a frickinlick..Looks like a speed duel probable in this one.. The 4,5,6 and 7 all look to have good early speed. I should of just stopped talking right there..
Results were............:7:-:5:-:4:-:6: :lol:

Race 4).. :5: Hangingbyathread..No Bet............3rd.......Was the only one in for a tag..What the hell was I thinking..Easy bet against..:sleeping:

Race 5).. :10: Big Grey..WP...................SCRATCHED...Didn't lose any money this race..:jump:

Race 6).. :3: Coljak...WP.....................out.........This 5 will be over bet and worth a shot to bet against..They bet this 5 down to 1/2...:faint:....A runner switching from turf to dirt and ran 12 points below par in his last..My 3 ran for about a half a block and stopped for a breather..:D

Race 7).. :1a: My Lucky Way to win....+ :7: Too Critical to wp.........out.
This 7 caught up to the 2 and cleared her by the 3/8ths pole..Led by 2+ lengths at the top of the stretch at 33-1 and hope came back into my life....:D...Only to see her wheels start to spin down the stretch and all hope was deflated..The 1 throws in a teaser by finishing fast late..

Race 8).. :6: Mississippi Man..Win.............out.....Walks to the lead..But to find out that the 7 was like a major leaguer playing in the minors today..The 7 was the only other horse who won on a muddy track..I think he likes the slop..

Race 9).. :13: Why Then..WP............SCRATCHED......I didn't have to watch any more of the abuse with this scratch..There must be a GOD!!!

Bet.........................$22.00
Won..0000000000000000000000000000000
..........................-$22.00

[cmoore]

Friday, Oct. 16th

Race 1)..:3:,:3x:....WP...The 3 Debbise fast Girl is a nice closer on the non firm turf course..The 3x One tough Belle likely to draw in..She has good tactical speed and should get good position early..Two itm finishes on a off track..15-1 ML seems high.

Race 2)..:6: V Sat...Win..The one to catch..First 2 calls are above par and will be on the lead..Can the 1 or 2 catch him at 5 furs..4-1 is worth the price to find out..Let's see if he stays that high..

Race 3)..:5: Subtle Sweetness...Win...Likely 2nd choice behind the over bet favorite..I never did like runners that won easily then were taken off the track for extended period of time..I'll take 3-1..

Race 4)..:3: We Get It..Win...Good race off a 2+ month layoff..Ran into 3rd place at 12-1 going 7 furs..Was only a length out on the stretch..There's 5 E/Ep styles in race...This P style should benefit. This 1 will probably be under even money..They can have him

Race 5)..:13: Idol Image...Win..This MTO entry ran just below par back in August..Could be hammered down to 6/5 if off the turf..Will skip if lower then 5/2..

Race 6)..:7: Joko Motion...Win...Going against the big favorite again..The 3 dueled in last on the slop and tired badly stretch..A 59 late pace..Stretches out another half furlong today..Proud Citizen runners are not a classy bunch. Only 8% of 26 wins on this race type have won at a purse of 41k or higher..The broodmare sire Affirmed is even worse..6% of 54..Now Medaglia D'oro runners are a different story..Plus they run well 1st time out as 3 year olds..

Race 7)..:2: Five star Maria...No Bet...Had her at 15-1 in her last start..If it's on the dirt..We'd be lucky to get 6/5..

Race 8)..:2: Speightswon...WP..Needed race off layoff..Closed in maiden win on a doft turf course..if on the dirt..Sire is a top mud sire..Should like the off going..

Race 9)..:3: May Day Now...Win...Woke up in last drawing off on the drop down..Has 2 good races on the slop..Forstry runners do very good coming back within 6 days..Contessa dows extremely well bringing runners back within 6 days..

[46zilzal]

Kind of silly to make choices so far in advance as 1 5 7 8 are all off the green today and the scratches are myriad
1) 1 1a 2 2b 3 3x 5 10 11
2) 1 4
3) 3
5) 1 3 4 8 9
7) 1 3 5 8 9 11 12
8) 2 4 5 7 8 11
9) 1 7 10

[cmoore]

Friday, Oct. 16th

Race 1)..:3:,:3x:....WP...The 3 Debbise fast Girl is a nice closer on the non firm turf course..The 3x One tough Belle likely to draw in..She has good tactical speed and should get good position early..Two itm finishes on a off track..15-1 ML seems high.

Race 2)..:6: V Sat...Win..The one to catch..First 2 calls are above par and will be on the lead..Can the 1 or 2 catch him at 5 furs..4-1 is worth the price to find out..Let's see if he stays that high..

Race 3)..:5: Subtle Sweetness...Win...Likely 2nd choice behind the over bet favorite..I never did like runners that won easily then were taken off the track for extended period of time..I'll take 3-1..

Race 4)..:3: We Get It..Win...Good race off a 2+ month layoff..Ran into 3rd place at 12-1 going 7 furs..Was only a length out on the stretch..There's 5 E/Ep styles in race...This P style should benefit. This 1 will probably be under even money..They can have him

Race 5)..:13: Idol Image...Win..This MTO entry ran just below par back in August..Could be hammered down to 6/5 if off the turf..Will skip if lower then 5/2..

Race 6)..:7: Joko Motion...Win...Going against the big favorite again..The 3 dueled in last on the slop and tired badly stretch..A 59 late pace..Stretches out another half furlong today..Proud Citizen runners are not a classy bunch. Only 8% of 26 wins on this race type have won at a purse of 41k or higher..The broodmare sire Affirmed is even worse..6% of 54..Now Medaglia D'oro runners are a different story..Plus they run well 1st time out as 3 year olds..

Race 7)..:2: Five star Maria...No Bet...Had her at 15-1 in her last start..If it's on the dirt..We'd be lucky to get 6/5..

Race 8)..:2: Speightswon...WP..Needed race off layoff..Closed in maiden win on a doft turf course..if on the dirt..Sire is a top mud sire..Should like the off going..

Race 9)..:3: May Day Now...Win...Woke up in last drawing off on the drop down..Has 2 good races on the slop..Forstry runners do very good coming back within 6 days..Contessa dows extremely well bringing runners back within 6 days..

Race 1)..:3:,:3x:....WP........................scratche d

Race 2)..:6: V Sat...Win.......................Winner $4.70...WOW!!!!

Race 3)..:5: Subtle Sweetness...Win..............2nd at 4-1

Race 4)..:3: We Get It..Win..........................2nd at 9-1

Race 5)..:13: Idol Image...Win......................3rd

Race 6)..:7: Joko Motion...Win...........................out

Race 7)..:2: Five star Maria...No Bet................4th

Race 8)..:2: Speightswon...WP....................scratched

Race 9)..:3: May Day Now...Win.................scratched

Bet....$10.00
Won..$04.70..
.......-$5.30