Winning Percentage of Favorites

[Dave Schwartz]

9/1/08 to 8/31/09

all surfaces, all tracks, no races with entries, no fields <5, dist 4.5f up


Fav Test.
1-rPubCh
----------------------------------------------------------------
WIN BETS
Field1 Field2 Starts Pays Pct $Net IV PIV HV
---------------------------------------------------------------
1st 44,376 15,974 36.0 $1.70 2.84 1.03 1.35
2nd 43,550 9,123 20.9 $1.63 1.65 0.98 1.14
3rd 43,283 6,308 14.6 $1.60 1.15 0.95 1.02
FH 84,072 7,244 8.6 $1.58 0.77 0.95 0.92
RH 147,450 4,921 3.3 $1.31 0.28 0.88 0.65

Total 362,731 43,570 12.0 $1.49 1.00 0.98



1st: 36.7% of all wins (includes a few co-favs)
1st-2nd: 56.7%
1st-3rd: 72.1%



Same table, from 2001-2002


Fav Test.
1-rPubCh
----------------------------------------------------------------
WIN BETS
Field1 Field2 Starts Pays Pct $Net IV PIV HV
---------------------------------------------------------------
1st 48,431 16,471 34.0 $1.68 2.71 1.02 1.32
2nd 47,462 9,962 21.0 $1.66 1.67 1.00 1.16
3rd 47,083 7,018 14.9 $1.62 1.19 0.97 1.04
FH 92,167 8,132 8.8 $1.58 0.79 0.94 0.92
RH 160,703 5,859 3.6 $1.37 0.31 0.89 0.68

Total 395,846 47,442 12.0 $1.52 1.00 0.98



1st: 34.7% of all wins (includes a few co-favs)
1st-2nd: 55.6%
1st-3rd: 70.5%



I would have suspected a bigger difference.

[robert99]

Dave,

These "ranking constants" are fascinating.
They (win percentage averages) seem to apply worldwide whatever the class of racing or the handicapping methods used.

[Red Knave]

I would have suspected a bigger difference.That's still slightly more than 5.75% more winning favorites. Noticeable.
Also interesting is that current favorites pay $4.63 vs. $4.84 in the older study (using the slightly higher all wins percentages).

[CincyHorseplayer]

While having a higher mutuel,my key horses since 2001 remain about the same at;

Win-28%
Win/place-49%.

After seeing roughly 2 years of those numbers,that is why I switched dominantly to playing the exacta(with a vastly higher ROI),with win bets at no less than 3-1(if I really love the horse).

[jonnielu]

9/1/08 to 8/31/09

all surfaces, all tracks, no races with entries, no fields <5, dist 4.5f up


Fav Test.
1-rPubCh
----------------------------------------------------------------
WIN BETS
Field1 Field2 Starts Pays Pct $Net IV PIV HV
---------------------------------------------------------------
1st 44,376 15,974 36.0 $1.70 2.84 1.03 1.35
2nd 43,550 9,123 20.9 $1.63 1.65 0.98 1.14
3rd 43,283 6,308 14.6 $1.60 1.15 0.95 1.02
FH 84,072 7,244 8.6 $1.58 0.77 0.95 0.92
RH 147,450 4,921 3.3 $1.31 0.28 0.88 0.65

Total 362,731 43,570 12.0 $1.49 1.00 0.98



1st: 36.7% of all wins (includes a few co-favs)
1st-2nd: 56.7%
1st-3rd: 72.1%



Same table, from 2001-2002


Fav Test.
1-rPubCh
----------------------------------------------------------------
WIN BETS
Field1 Field2 Starts Pays Pct $Net IV PIV HV
---------------------------------------------------------------
1st 48,431 16,471 34.0 $1.68 2.71 1.02 1.32
2nd 47,462 9,962 21.0 $1.66 1.67 1.00 1.16
3rd 47,083 7,018 14.9 $1.62 1.19 0.97 1.04
FH 92,167 8,132 8.8 $1.58 0.79 0.94 0.92
RH 160,703 5,859 3.6 $1.37 0.31 0.89 0.68

Total 395,846 47,442 12.0 $1.52 1.00 0.98



1st: 34.7% of all wins (includes a few co-favs)
1st-2nd: 55.6%
1st-3rd: 70.5%



I would have suspected a bigger difference.

Why? Those have been the rough percentages for generations.

jdl

[Dave Schwartz]

Because the trend in 2009 is higher:

fav test.
1-rPubCh
----------------------------------------------------------------
WIN BETS
Field1 Field2 Starts Pays Pct $Net IV PIV HV
---------------------------------------------------------------
1st 29,968 10,883 36.3 $1.71 2.84 1.03 1.35
2nd 29,449 6,177 21.0 $1.63 1.64 0.98 1.13
3rd 29,248 4,289 14.7 $1.61 1.15 0.96 1.02
FH 55,445 4,741 8.6 $1.56 0.76 0.94 0.91
RH 98,511 3,358 3.4 $1.31 0.28 0.88 0.65

Total 242,621 29,448 12.1 $1.49 1.00 0.98




1st =37.0%
1st-2nd=57.9
1st-3rd=72.5



And, in the last 4 months still slightly higher.



fav test.
1-rPubCh
----------------------------------------------------------------
WIN BETS
Field1 Field2 Starts Pays Pct $Net IV PIV HV
---------------------------------------------------------------
1st 17,400 6,322 36.3 $1.70 2.81 1.03 1.34
2nd 17,073 3,595 21.1 $1.62 1.63 0.98 1.13
3rd 16,980 2,500 14.7 $1.63 1.14 0.96 1.03
FH 31,063 2,696 8.7 $1.58 0.76 0.95 0.91
RH 56,339 1,978 3.5 $1.29 0.29 0.88 0.66

Total 138,855 17,091 12.3 $1.49 1.00 0.98

1st =37.0
1st-2nd=58.0
1st-3rd=72.7

[jonnielu]

Do you have a trend for field sizes going down slightly?

jdl

[Dave Schwartz]

While that might help explain why, it does not improve the situation for the player.

[CBedo]

While that might help explain why, it does not improve the situation for the player.Explaining why is super important though. If it's field size, that says something different than if it's "smarter bettors."

[Dave Schwartz]

Chris,

I totally agree.

I expected to see it lean more towards smarter bettors than it obviously does.


Dave

[GameTheory]

There are also seasonal differences. I'd like to see a breakdown by month comparing this year to the last several (Jan 2009 compared to Jan 2008 compared to Jan 2007, etc)

[jonnielu]

Chris,

I totally agree.

I expected to see it lean more towards smarter bettors than it obviously does.


Dave

It would be unreasonable to expect bettors to get smarter when they are working with the same poor information. Besides, the bettor is too busy trying to re-handicap races, to spend time learning something about horse racing. And, there really isn't much out there that teaches horse racing, just re-handicapping. So what is there that could make the bettor smarter anyway?

jdl

[jonnielu]

There are also seasonal differences. I'd like to see a breakdown by month comparing this year to the last several (Jan 2009 compared to Jan 2008 compared to Jan 2007, etc)

What's the point? Do you do one thing with favorites win 34% in November, and then something else with 31% in March?

Having a general consistency is one thing, knowing what to do with it in general is another.

jdl

[CBedo]

It would be unreasonable to expect bettors to get smarter when they are working with the same poor information. Besides, the bettor is too busy trying to re-handicap races, to spend time learning something about horse racing. And, there really isn't much out there that teaches horse racing, just re-handicapping. So what is there that could make the bettor smarter anyway?

jdlI was thinking more of change in "market share." We continue to hear (and moan) about the small "dumb" bettor leaving the game and the whale "smart" bettor getting a bigger percentage of the total handle. By those definitions, then although no one is possibly individually smarter, the public as a whole could be.

[jonnielu]

I was thinking more of change in "market share." We continue to hear (and moan) about the small "dumb" bettor leaving the game and the whale "smart" bettor getting a bigger percentage of the total handle. By those definitions, then although no one is possibly individually smarter, the public as a whole could be.

The public will always be at a disadvantage as long as they are there primarily for entertainment. That could change, but it just isn't likely as long as the racing industry seeks fools to be gutted as opposed to entertainment seekers that they can just take advantage of.

Racings greed is killing racing.

jdl

[bisket]

the best way to stay in the black is to get good at locating the 30% of the time the fav finishes out of the money, and hit that race with a tri, ex, and win bet :cool:

[CBedo]

the best way to stay in the black is to get good at locating the 30% of the time the fav finishes out of the money, and hit that race with a tri, ex, and win bet :cool:Finding that 30% is always so easy....:rolleyes:

[GameTheory]

What's the point? Do you do one thing with favorites win 34% in November, and then something else with 31% in March?Just curious. If you aren't interested, stay out of the thread.

I know that I do change handicapping styles in general at the beginning and end of the year to account for the weird goings-on (esp. the last few weeks of the year). Also would like to know if the general trend of favorites winning percentage rising throughout the summer (as Dave is suggesting is happening this year) EVERY year. Wouldn't surprise me...

[CBedo]

Just curious. If you aren't interested, stay out of the thread.

I know that I do change handicapping styles in general at the beginning and end of the year to account for the weird goings-on (esp. the last few weeks of the year). Also would like to know if the general trend of favorites winning percentage rising throughout the summer (as Dave is suggesting is happening this year) EVERY year. Wouldn't surprise me...Me too. I'd guess (just a guess) that possibly the favorite win percentage could be affected (at least in standard deviation if not the average) by weather in the winter months, and by the structure of the races as it changes throughout the year (ie more 2 year old races, etc).

[GameTheory]

Me too. I'd guess (just a guess) that possibly the favorite win percentage could be affected (at least in standard deviation if not the average) by weather in the winter months, and by the structure of the races as it changes throughout the year (ie more 2 year old races, etc).I don't think the weather is much of a factor -- it's the condition book as it relates to the calendar, and the universal Jan 1 birthday. Unless there actually is no seasonal effect. I think I knew this once...

[CBedo]

I don't think the weather is much of a factor -- it's the condition book as it relates to the calendar, and the universal Jan 1 birthday. Unless there actually is no seasonal effect. I think I knew this once...I assumed (probably bad) that it was the condition book, but was wondering if the weather or other factors might possibly affect the variability of the win rate of favorites (the sd, not the avg).

[rokitman]

Average field size has declined a bit since 2002 and average starts per runner has continued its bizarre plunge. http://home.jockeyclub.com/factbook.asp?section=10


I think we are now seeing the result of the shortening of the depth of fields in the higher win % of favorites, not the total field size. And, at first thought, it does not seem likely that there's potential hidden good news for the bettor in that.

[CincyHorseplayer]

The only reason favorites winning more affects players is because they are win bettors.

Out of necessity back in 1999 I started turning 6/5 or worse favorites into 4-1 shots with the exacta and have made money on undeniable and legitimate favorites since.
And as Bisket said,when they finish 2nd or worse the ROI goes up so much that even sloppy hit % can get you ahead of the game.


Every race to me is about the legitimacy or other of the favorite.The more I hate it the more I bet.And even with the new data it's still more than 60% of the time.

[ezrabrooks]

Seems to me..with all of the advances of handicapping techniques...smaller fields, etc., the fact that favs are winning at only 36% is pretty amazing..

Ez

[castaway01]

The public will always be at a disadvantage as long as they are there primarily for entertainment. That could change, but it just isn't likely as long as the racing industry seeks fools to be gutted as opposed to entertainment seekers that they can just take advantage of.

Racings greed is killing racing.

jdl

You've made hundreds of posts about the subject, that everyone is using poor, meaningless information. Still, I think to most people who aren't you and don't have your bias, the public THAT IS STILL WAGERING ON HORSE RACING is much better informed and smarter than they used to be. Between that and smaller field sizes, not surprising more favorites are winning.

Also, can someone confirm that field size is down this year too? I'd think it might actually reverse the downward trend due to fewer racing dates.

[bisket]

Just curious. If you aren't interested, stay out of the thread.

I know that I do change handicapping styles in general at the beginning and end of the year to account for the weird goings-on (esp. the last few weeks of the year). Also would like to know if the general trend of favorites winning percentage rising throughout the summer (as Dave is suggesting is happening this year) EVERY year. Wouldn't surprise me...
i would say the reason the fav wins more often during the summer may have alot to do with the fact most horses already have more than 3 races under their belt. so its much easier for handicappers to distinguish current form. thats why i love gulstream in the winter. thats when the odds on these favs are where i want them :ThmbUp:

[rokitman]

You've made hundreds of posts about the subject, that everyone is using poor, meaningless information. Still, I think to most people who aren't you and don't have your bias, the public THAT IS STILL WAGERING ON HORSE RACING is much better informed and smarter than they used to be. Between that and smaller field sizes, not surprising more favorites are winning.

Also, can someone confirm that field size is down this year too? I'd think it might actually reverse the downward trend due to fewer racing dates.
There was over 24,000 less races in 2008 than there was in 1990 but field size went down from 8.91 in 1990 to 8.17 in 2008.

[Bruddah]

Forgive me if this question has been asked. But, what is the winning % of favorites whose odds are 2-1 or > vs. winning favorites with odds < than 2-1. It would seem to me, if you are trying to identify losing favorites this would be an obvious starting point. Again, I apologize for jumping in and not going back to read the entire thread first.

Thanks Bruddah

[RonTiller]

Favorites - All

Year Starts Wins Win% ROI IV Avg W$
1998 62670 21006 33.52 0.81 2.68 4.85
1999 61467 20324 33.06 0.81 2.65 4.90
2000 62372 20839 33.41 0.81 2.67 4.83
2001 62455 20964 33.57 0.81 2.69 4.85
2002 61618 20820 33.79 0.82 2.70 4.86
2003 60700 20943 34.50 0.83 2.76 4.79
2004 60377 20711 34.30 0.82 2.74 4.79
2005 59015 20335 34.46 0.82 2.76 4.78
2006 58338 20206 34.64 0.82 2.77 4.73
2007 57727 20142 34.89 0.82 2.79 4.70
2008 56404 19778 35.06 0.82 2.81 4.70
2009 41432 14855 35.85 0.83 2.87 4.64


Favorites - 8 Horse Fields ONLY

Year Starts Wins Win% ROI IV Avg W$
1998 12206 3949 32.35 0.79 2.59 4.91
1999 11792 3864 32.77 0.81 2.62 4.93
2000 11865 3901 32.88 0.81 2.63 4.93
2001 11981 3914 32.67 0.80 2.61 4.90
2002 11646 3839 32.96 0.81 2.64 4.91
2003 11623 3933 33.84 0.82 2.71 4.84
2004 11308 3814 33.73 0.81 2.70 4.82
2005 11406 3808 33.39 0.81 2.67 4.85
2006 11255 3787 33.65 0.81 2.69 4.84
2007 11013 3812 34.61 0.82 2.77 4.76
2008 10601 3667 34.59 0.82 2.77 4.74
2009 7891 2824 35.79 0.83 2.86 4.65


Favorites - 6 Horse Fields ONLY

Year Starts Wins Win% ROI IV Avg W$
1998 9242 3511 37.99 0.83 2.28 4.36
1999 8675 3247 37.43 0.82 2.25 4.40
2000 9245 3459 37.41 0.82 2.24 4.39
2001 8704 3269 37.56 0.82 2.25 4.38
2002 8136 3129 38.46 0.84 2.31 4.36
2003 7728 2956 38.25 0.83 2.30 4.34
2004 7787 2943 37.79 0.82 2.27 4.35
2005 8245 3201 38.82 0.84 2.33 4.33
2006 8339 3279 39.32 0.84 2.36 4.27
2007 8017 3130 39.04 0.83 2.34 4.24
2008 8103 3195 39.43 0.84 2.37 4.26
2009 5949 2363 39.72 0.83 2.38 4.21


Favorites - 10 Horse Fields ONLY

Year Starts Wins Win% ROI IV Avg W$
1998 8916 2675 30.00 0.81 3.00 5.40
1999 9329 2790 29.91 0.81 2.99 5.42
2000 9187 2698 29.37 0.79 2.94 5.35
2001 9276 2871 30.95 0.83 3.10 5.34
2002 10271 3161 30.78 0.82 3.08 5.31
2003 10287 3235 31.45 0.81 3.14 5.18
2004 10029 3121 31.12 0.80 3.11 5.17
2005 8810 2712 30.78 0.81 3.08 5.26
2006 8336 2587 31.03 0.81 3.10 5.20
2007 8409 2627 31.24 0.81 3.12 5.19
2008 8438 2673 31.68 0.82 3.17 5.20
2009 5936 1959 33.00 0.83 3.30 5.05


Favorites - 12 Horse Fields ONLY

Year Starts Wins Win% ROI IV Avg W$
1998 3631 1022 28.15 0.78 3.38 5.58
1999 3373 959 28.43 0.80 3.41 5.60
2000 3082 877 28.46 0.78 3.41 5.52
2001 3224 905 28.07 0.78 3.37 5.60
2002 3182 912 28.66 0.81 3.44 5.65
2003 3184 994 31.22 0.86 3.75 5.51
2004 3270 992 30.34 0.83 3.64 5.47
2005 2871 874 30.44 0.84 3.65 5.50
2006 2775 802 28.90 0.81 3.47 5.61
2007 2806 819 29.19 0.80 3.50 5.51
2008 2827 826 29.22 0.81 3.51 5.53
2009 1983 565 28.49 0.78 3.42 5.49


Ron Tiller
HDW

[Dave Schwartz]

Well done, Ron.

[CBedo]

Thank you very much Ron! Does anyone have the data on avg field size for the same years? I saw the 1990 to 2008, but would like to see the year by year changes (and maybe the number or races per year if you have it).

[Bruddah]

Ron, very impressive information you have provided for winners by number of starters in a race. But, the question I am asking is, irrelevant to number of starters, what % of favorites won with odds greater > than 2-1 and what % of favorites won with odds less < than 2-1. If possible what % of favorites won with odds less < than 1-1 (even money)

In other words if you have a favorite(s) with odds of 5-2 or 3-1 etc. aren't we obviously looking at a race in which the favorite is certainly vulnerable. I am wondering if statistics support this assumption.

Therefore, if my assumption is true, it isn't difficult finding races with vulnerable favorites which may finish out of the money or win. The public has all ready done it for us. :confused:

Originally Posted by bisket
the best way to stay in the black is to get good at locating the 30% of the time the fav finishes out of the money, and hit that race with a tri, ex, and win bet

[jonnielu]

You've made hundreds of posts about the subject, that everyone is using poor, meaningless information. Still, I think to most people who aren't you and don't have your bias, the public THAT IS STILL WAGERING ON HORSE RACING is much better informed and smarter than they used to be. Between that and smaller field sizes, not surprising more favorites are winning.

Also, can someone confirm that field size is down this year too? I'd think it might actually reverse the downward trend due to fewer racing dates.

You might want to consider Ez's post above, the favorites percentage hasn't changed appreciably for generations. ML is usually 25 - 28%, post time 30% - 36%.

It shows one simple fact, more might be known about handicapping, but it is of little effect.

This leads to the questions, has the handicapper gone down the wrong road in seeking knowledge?

jdl

[Greyfox]

Thank you both Dave and Ron. Lots of food for thought herre.

[Space Monkey]

Ditto Grey fox's post :ThmbUp: :ThmbUp: Ron and Dave.

Jon, I just don't get your "we got bad information" crusade. I go back to the late 60's when I used to hit the first newsstand that opened around 4:30AM, next to Providence's City Hall, to get the Morning Telegraph off the train from new York. Info's come a long way!!!

[PaceAdvantage]

Jon, I just don't get your "we got bad information" crusade.If you were a member of this board earlier, you'd get it...Jon's just being a bit more subtle in his self-promotion nowadays...

[Space Monkey]

Didn't know he was involved in the information network. Now, do I take the bait?
Ummm!!??