Trifecta vs. Superfecta

[menifee]

I am a vertical player. My favorite bet has been the Trifecta. Lately, I've noticed that the Tri payout's pale in comparison to the super payouts. I don't have any empricial date to back that us, I've just noticed it. For example, I've seen examples where the super pays 10x, the tri payoff.

Three quick questions:

1. Has anyone else noticed this and researched it?

2. How do you think the dime super has altered super payouts? I notice a lot of guys at the track playing dime supers and I think a lot of dead money has gone into these pools.

3. I've learned that unless you can relly key in on a closer that always finishes third or fourth, using the all button for the fourth place spot is not necessarily a bad play. Any thoughts on this?

Thanks in advance.

[bisket]

i have found the super just isn't a profitable bet for me. to many times jocks don't push horse for that 4th place cash. i just don't like it.

[Space Monkey]

1. No
2. Since its just a 10 cent bet, I don't think it has much of an effect. Players who normally would play $ supers are hitting the repeat button to avoid the taxman.
3. Depends on the size of the field. I never hit the all button in a full sized field.

As far as the payoffs go, once again a lot depends on the size of the field and the amount of $ in the pool. With the advent of rebate players it doesn't take much handicapping skill to lock up a tri, especially in a 7 or 8 horse field if your intent is just to pound $ thru the window. I don't know what tracks you play so its hard to respond directly to your situation. I've recently decided on horizontal plays for my key bets. I feel that I can pick potential winners better than whose going to clunk up for 3rd or fourth. Plus, when I pick a mid-long shot winner, I know that the payoff in a pik 4 will be sweet. Not so much in vertical bets.

Unlike so many here that research topics like this, my opinion is based soley on perception/experience/memory, not cold hard facts.

Good Luck!!

[markgoldie]

Since this is something of my area of expertise, I'll attempt to answer your three questions.

1. I think your anecdotal experience leading you to believe that there is significant more value in playing superfectas over tri's is wrong in most instances. There are selective situations in which it is correct, the most glaring being when the favorite finishes back of fourth. When this happens, the greater number of ticket possibilities brings out the pool anomalies that skew large-possibility gimmicks toward favorite combinations. The reverse of this situation is when favorite combinations hit or when the favorite finishes exactly fourth. Here, the value will be much lower than than in the tri.

2. The dime super has either helped or hindered your play depending on whether you were a serious super player before their advent or not. If you were a "dabbler" in supers, it should have helped you since now you are able to spread much wider in a cost-effective manner. Therefore, you are no longer strapped by the investment involved into playing narrow. If you were a serious player before their advent (like me), it has hurt because the cost of play was never a serious drawback. But now, the pool anomalies that made non-favorite supers a bonanza in the past have scaled back dramatically. For example, when the $1 ticket was the minimum, it was not unusual to see "all" payoffs at many "B" tracks. Now you almost never see it. This means that your opportunity to cash an entire pool has gone way down. So for the serious player who has not changed his basic strategy due to the advent of the dime, you now have lots more company in the big payoff scenarios.

3. Using the "all" button for fourth will kill you in the long run. Yes, you will hit some tickets that you otherwise would not have had. But if you add up all the investment cost of these additional numbers, you'll quickly see that it doesn't work. When you play a large number of supers over a period of time, you'll find that effiecient ticket construction is crucial to success. Those wasted tickets destroy profits. I would recommend using dual key horses rather than punching the "all'.

Additionally, I might say that unless you are on a sliding scale rebate, you might want to avoid supers in general. For example, if your rebate in exactas is the same as in supers, stick with the exactas because the greater track takeout in supers will be a huge hurdle for you to overcome.

[1st time lasix]

as with all exotics...takeout considerations are extrememly important if you play more than a once a week as a recreational player. Having said that...I believe certain combinations in the super pool have some "overlay" value....examples: when you can beat a favorite out of top two positions.....or when you have a fav on top but a double digit entry comes in 2nd and possibly 3rd. As a rule....I never play chalk in top two positions..... and I rarely play them combined in top three unless i can split them with a bomb i believe has a reasonable handicapped chance to exceed expectations. Otherwise perhaps horizontal exotic pools might be better. *** One of my fondest recent memories is when i had a third choice 9/2 winner and a 17/1 second place finisher over a 5/2 favorite over a 14/1 pure closer in a big field in the Spring meet at Keeneland. The longshot second place horse was well bred for turf......... and was stretching out on grass after two lackluster poly sprints. Payout was nearly twice what i had hoped for because I recognized the possibility as I structured the ticket. I love the pools at Keeneland! :ThmbUp: I personally am not a huge fan of the ten cent denomination. {that topic has been debated in this forum}

[bisket]

when the tracks started the dime super is when i went strictly to tri's and exacta's. its just not worth it anymore!

[SansuiSC]

Every race and everything is a situation. I find most people key the fav in the top or second spot in supers. Thats why you see larger payouts (x times better than tri). Supers can pay well with it coming in 3rd or 4th but best if off the board. Also morning line can have an effect on the payout for people that bet off track and go to work.
I play alot of supers. Finding key horses aka: contenders for the sequence is the trick for me. You do want to cover yourself if the favorite is a legit runner though.
I found this a while ago and don't swear by it but its a decent way to approach the super using "key" horses. You can adjust it to your preference and bankroll.
It can lead to many W2g's :)

http://www.ultimatecapper.com/superfecta-wagering.htm