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WinterTriangle
09-13-2009, 09:58 PM
Sometimes I can't believe my eyes when I see the favorite on the tote.

MOTOVATO

This horse took the suckers money and went off as the favorite. The horse had ZERO chance of even making it into the money. Had NEVER run on tapeta, the trainer had never run at PID, and the jockey had never ridden there, as far as I know. The hrose's AW stats were 0-0-0-0!. As were the trainer's and jocks at PID. Not to mention the horse hadn't run in over 2 months.

The 4 and the 1 (which was the exacta) were horses who ran at, and actually placed or won, at PID..... and their trainers/jockey had ridden at PID as well, or at least at GG or on AW surface.

The rest of the superfecta. Vacation had class, as well 2 wins and 4 shows on AW. In selections, I had the #3 to win (ran 3rd) and the #1 to place (ran 2nd). The #1 had 4 wins and 2 places on the surface.

So, I'm trying to figure out HOW this horse went off as the favorite....so, I look at Brisnet PP's (had to download since I don't use them) and they had MOTAVO as 1st. :lol:

This is how it happens. Probably a lot.

post time
09-13-2009, 10:51 PM
where is pid

cj
09-13-2009, 11:11 PM
I agree the horse was a suspect favorite, but I don't think anyone would look at the PPs and not expect the horse to be favored.

All the questions you mention are valid, but you leave out a lot that led to his favoritism. For the most part, a lot of bettors still don't know how to hand "first time rubber" horses.

WinterTriangle
09-14-2009, 12:44 AM
CJ I'm using this as a little study case. I'm trying to learn about *false favorites* and this horse qualifies perfectly, and if I don't see what made it happen, I won't see it next time.

I agree the horse was a suspect favorite, but I don't think anyone would look at the PPs and not expect the horse to be favored.


I can't come up with a single reason the horse was favored. What were those factors?

All the questions you mention are valid, but you leave out a lot that led to his favoritism.

A lot? There was actually more, I just noted the most obvious that could be picked up on the PPs.

I'm not saying I was surprised he was BET, I'm saying I'm surprised he was the Favorite.....against horses with a 67% jock and almost 30% trainer stats (when his was 0% on all counts), ad horses who had anywhere from 44-77% ITM stats at PID. Or ran not just tapeta, but any AW. His workouts weren't even good.


.......other than the *touting* by Brisnet I'm still not finding what I left out. :confused:


Some of you have sophisticated software programs and what not. I'm wondering what showed up. ???? Or that Wolfson has *majik*---- ahem!

I found 2 very insignificant things. He's not slow on dirt and he was shortening up from 1 1/8 to 1. His sire won 4 at PID (about 6 other horses had the same or better in that category).

Norm
09-14-2009, 12:50 AM
where is pid
Presque Isle Downs
Eire, PA.

WinterTriangle
09-14-2009, 01:41 AM
Andrew Beyer :
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2009/02/23/AR2009022302714.html


By Andrew Beyer
Tuesday, February 24, 2009;

"Motovato's best Beyer Speed Figure was a 74 while he was in the Pletcher barn, but in his first start for Wolfson he exploded to win by 15 lengths and earn a figure of 111...."


Like me, he doubts it's blankets and shoes.:) I remember a few here talking about this horse's speed a while back, before something "went wrong" with him ankle chip or something.

Racing fans complain about all the drugs in racing, but seem to have no problem supporting suspect trainers at the betting window. We send a message that *we want this* by doing that.

I'm proud to say I never bet a dollar on any Kirk Z horses. Others are on that list.

CBedo
09-14-2009, 02:00 AM
I agree with CJ that people (including me many times) don't know how to judge dirt to plastic, but when I saw this race I assumed he'd be favored. Any time a high percentage trainer like Wolfson gets a top jockey like Leparoux to travel, he's going to get attention. They may not have have good stats at PID, but they don't have bad stats either; they just haven't been there, and overall, they are both about 20% winners. I think Wolfson is like 24% shipping and over 30% in nongraded stakes.

As far as the horse's fundamentals, the public is always going to jump on a last race big figure (I'm looking at the TSN numbers), especially when it's the only triple digit number in the field and is supported by previous numbers. He won his last race (which the public likes), and the race before was graded stakes placed. Using the TSN class numbers, he had the highest (or was tied) class ratings as well.

I don't know how this horse couldn't be well bet. I thought the public had him about where I expected they would at about 2/1 (I also thought he was a play against, but I didn't have the winner either :bang:).

Norm
09-14-2009, 03:55 AM
Curious thing about PID and its tapeta track, it plays a lot like dirt. Equally curious, GG, the only other tapeta track in this country, plays erratically like all other polycrap tracks. Maybe because they race in the evening at PID and the sun has less effect ?? I don't know, but there is something different about PID. It's not the same as the other synthetic tracks.

CBedo
09-14-2009, 04:16 AM
Curious thing about PID and its tapeta track, it plays a lot like dirt. Equally curious, GG, the only other tapeta track in this country, plays erratically like all other polycrap tracks. Maybe because they race in the evening at PID and the sun has less effect ?? I don't know, but there is something different about PID. It's not the same as the other synthetic tracks.I definitely agree with you here. Many of the pace models I have worked on for dirt fail miserably at most of the all weather tracks, but I've had good success at PID so far.

Tee
09-14-2009, 06:52 AM
How bout the actual wagering choice Vacation? 21 starts 3 wins 14 2nd & 3rd place finishes. Why was he the favorite? Other than the maiden score he has beaten Dominican(hardly a win machine) & Blackberry Road who is like 1 for 21.

markgoldie
09-14-2009, 11:13 AM
Sometimes I can't believe my eyes when I see the favorite on the tote.

[font=Arial Narrow]MOTOVATO

[size=1]This horse took the suckers money and went off as the favorite. The horse had ZERO chance of even making it into the money. Had NEVER run on tapeta, the trainer had never run at PID, and the jockey had never ridden there, as far as I know.

With due respect, I think you may have gone a bit overboard with these comments. As with all horses that start for the first time on a new surface, there is a question as to how the horse will handle it. However, without specific knowledge that the horse is racing on a surface that he will not like, the possibility was equally strong that the animal would prefer this going and run the race of his life.

What is true about your analysis is that favorites face what could well be a fatal challenge when encountering such different surface. The heavier the favoritism, the better the value in betting against such animals. In fact, any significant change in racing circumstance (trainer, track, surface, jockey, activity patterns, etc.) can lower the probability of a representative performance. This is exactly what you do not want to see when betting on such horses and exactly what you do want to see whan betting against. And, of course, the lower the odds, the better the value in betting against.

WinterTriangle
09-14-2009, 04:43 PM
How bout the actual wagering choice Vacation? 21 starts 3 wins 14 2nd & 3rd place finishes. Why was he the favorite? Other than the maiden score he has beaten Dominican(hardly a win machine) & Blackberry Road who is like 1 for 21.

Owner/Breeder Phipps Stable, and AW record 6-2-0-4 as opposed to 0-0-0-0. Got up for the superfecta, but you're right, wasn't the top 3.


Norm and CB, yes, I handicapped it just like dirt, and it was in line.


Mark, I still believe Motovato going off as favorite was the supertrainer angle. Sorry.;)


35/107 ×18May

aharon5741
09-16-2009, 01:14 PM
I have to disagree here. I put a win bet in on Motovato but that was at 1pm on the phone when he was 5-1 on the ML. I was very surprised to see him bet down to 9-5 for the all the reasons discussed above.

I think this had a lot to do with the bris numbers that were published in the PPs. Personally I bet him becasue Leparoux is a great jock and Wolfson has a high %. When Motovato ran at Calder his had commanding performances on fast and sloppy tracks. Also I'm from South Florida, and like seeing the top Calder runners make a go at it in Stakes around the country, so that put him over the top for me.