A pet peeve

[cees with dees]

I hate when pretend handicappers talk about "value". It's almost like they'd rather rip a ticket on a 10-1 shot rather than cash one at 2-1.
Certainly no value in a losing ticket.
Ben

[cees with dees]

People say: "This horse likes to win races". Horses like their feedbags and getting brushed.
It's amazing the amount of racetrack lingo we just accept when it has no merit whatsoever.
Here's another one:"He may bounce". People that use that word to explain a horses poor performance is either lazy or clueless. I have yet to see a horse run badly after a good effort without some sort of reasonable explanation.
Looking forward to the next two days off.
After a tough Saratoga meet, I am just raced out.
See you all Wednesday.
Ben

[Overlay]

I hate when pretend handicappers talk about "value". It's almost like they'd rather rip a ticket on a 10-1 shot rather than cash one at 2-1.
Certainly no value in a losing ticket.
Ben

Approaching horse racing with an expectation of losing makes no sense. But I don't think that handicappers should be faulted for a willingness to accept a lower winning percentage from betting on horses that pay enough when they do win to make an overall profit, as contrasted with having a tunnel-visioned focus on finding and betting the one most likely winner at any odds, even if the return when the horse wins won't be enough to compensate for the losses from the times when it doesn't.

I'm not talking about betting indiscriminately on longshots just because they're at high odds (which I think is the mistaken impression that too many people associate with the term "value handicapping"). But until it can be said (before a race is run) that any horse in it has a guaranteed, 100% probability of winning, considerations of value should have a prominent place in any handicapper's thinking (including those who believe that "picking winners" is the name of the game).

The pari-mutuel aspect of horse racing is what makes handicapping a game of skill where long-term profits are possible, and differentiates it from gambling games in which random chance rules; players face a negative expectation on every bet; and there's nothing that anyone can do to change the situation. Removing wagering value from the handicapping equation takes that advantage away, and makes the effort to overcome the take and breakage that much harder, which is the last thing today's horseplayers need.

[Java Gold@TFT]

In the wording I use - "value"="overlay". I don't have a problem betting a horse at 9-5 or 2-1 if I think it really should be 3-5 or 4-5. But if I think a horse is the best horse in the race and deserves to be 2-1 I will not bet it at 4-5. As said above - a person has to have a reasonable expectation of covering losing bets by prudently placing winning bets at the right odds.

[Space Monkey]

Well said Jave and Over. The OP needs a little education. Calling people "pretend" handicappers and then following that knock with his completely clueless opinions is plain laughable.

Here's another one:"He may bounce". People that use that word to explain a horses poor performance is either lazy or clueless. I have yet to see a horse run badly after a good effort without some sort of reasonable explanation.


CWD. Horses train and reach peak performance just like we do. When you reach that peak, the athlete will tail off. No athlete can maintain optimal performance 24/7, 365. I recently discussed this topic with CJ's Dad. he was hot on Kensai in the Woodward. Kensai had 5 races in a row where he ran better #'s. He was a prime candidate to bounce. It is a guessing game, I'll give you that, but to just blatantly dismiss the bounce theory is, IMO, just plain wrong.

[OTM Al]

Well said Jave and Over. The OP needs a little education. Calling people "pretend" handicappers and then following that knock with his completely clueless opinions is plain laughable.


It's probably just another TVG dig, but he swore he would never talk about them again....

[bisket]

Well said Jave and Over. The OP needs a little education. Calling people "pretend" handicappers and then following that knock with his completely clueless opinions is plain laughable.



CWD. Horses train and reach peak performance just like we do. When you reach that peak, the athlete will tail off. No athlete can maintain optimal performance 24/7, 365. I recently discussed this topic with CJ's Dad. he was hot on Kensai in the Woodward. Kensai had 5 races in a row where he ran better #'s. He was a prime candidate to bounce. It is a guessing game, I'll give you that, but to just blatantly dismiss the bounce theory is, IMO, just plain wrong.
kensei was also in a race for the first time with top class horses.

[firstoffclaim]

People say: "This horse likes to win races". Horses like their feedbags and getting brushed.
It's amazing the amount of racetrack lingo we just accept when it has no merit whatsoever.
Here's another one:"He may bounce". People that use that word to explain a horses poor performance is either lazy or clueless. I have yet to see a horse run badly after a good effort without some sort of reasonable explanation.
Looking forward to the next two days off.
After a tough Saratoga meet, I am just raced out.
See you all Wednesday.
Ben

A horse like Spooky Mulder doesn't like to win races?

[Imriledup]

Some people confuse value with price. There could be a 1-5 shot who's providing value and a 99-1 shot that's the worst underlay in racing.