MARKGOLDIE'S VALUE RESEARCH PROJECT

[markgoldie]

This research project is aimed at investigating a new angle that I believe has anecdotal promise. I have never tested this before, so I have no idea of what to expect.

This system will have a low strike rate which means that the ROI will certainly bounce around quite a bit. But it has the potential to produce some high-priced winners. Anecdotally, I have seen it pay well over $40 to win on several occasions. Naturally, I have no idea how many selections it would have taken to get these horses, nor do I know what kind of abberations they were. That's what this project aims to find out.

Since the average odds should be relatively high, there will be no restrictions on a "playable" odds. All selections may be considered a play.

Here are the initial selections for Sunday 9/13/09. They are nominally in post-time order:

Hoo R1 #6 Jackson's Speed ML 6/1
AP R2 #5 Love Alaska ML 5/1
Tup R4 #5 Nevaeh's Song ML 10/1
Mon R5 #3 Subtitles ML 6/1
AP R3 #3 Herat's Missle ML 15/1
Ap R5 #6 Forward Sail ML 4/1
Pid R7 #9 Sweet Lorena ML 10/1

That's it from approximately 70 races considered.

As always, comments and questions are welcomed.

GL Mark

[formula_2002]

Mark, take a look at this streak calculator..its sobering
http://www.sbrforum.com/Betting+Tools/Streak+Calculator.aspx

if you bet 20-1 shots and make a 20% profit you have a 94% chance of losing.

according to the calculator, in a series of 100 races you have better than 99% chance of losing 15 in a row
and better than 50% chance of losing 35 in a row. Oh my :eek:

[WinterTriangle]

Mark,
PID R7: #9 Sweet Lorena ran in the other stakes at PID and is not running today.
I know because I had a place wager on her, and she placed as a longshot. :)

[markgoldie]

Results for 9/13/09:

5 selections ran. 1 winner AP R5 Forward Sail at $7.80

Running: $2 Investment $10 Return $7.80

Notes: To Formula 2002: I don't expect the average price of these to be anywhere near 20-1. However, as I said, I have seen the angle payout at over this number. I am going to filter out low ML selections because with the nature of the angle, it just doesn't make sense to put them into the mix. However, scratches and other factors may lead to a lower win mutuel as evidenced by the $7.80 payout yesterday.

Encouraging from yesterday's results was that 4 of the 5 selections hit the board (meaning that they ran relatively well) and they produced a fairly healthy show profit. But we're not show bettors, so the importance is just that they ran okay.

To WinterTriangle: Thanks for the info on Sweet Lorena. Glad to see she ran well at a price.

[markgoldie]

Selections for Monday 9/14/09:

TDN R1 #7 Lady Emperor ML 8/1
FL R2 #8 Deewanee ML 8/1
TDN R3 #3 Tabulate ML 10/1
TDN R7 #5 Fearless Native ML 8/1
TDN R8 #10 Fleet Foot Harry ML 12/1
MNR R5 #3 Rusty's Phantom ML 6/1
REM R5 #3 Judy's Jet ML 7/2

That's it.

Notes: A little surprised by the number of selections with only 40 races considered because of the fewer number of tracks operating on a Monday. Not sure if that's an abberation or more representative of what to expect, but this is the same number of selections as yesterday when 70 races were considered. Also, average ML odds are higher today.

GL Mark

[speculus]

Encouraging from yesterday's results was that 4 of the 5 selections hit the board (meaning that they ran relatively well) and they produced a fairly healthy show profit. But we're not show bettors, so the importance is just that they ran okay.

Markg,

Please take my advice. Although you may not be interested in place or show results of your choices, just keep records for them too, at least privately. Because you never really know what your experiment will reveal finally, as happened with me during my FINOO (http://prakashgosavi.blogspot.com/2009/09/finoo-signs-off-with-winner.html) (Follow-In-Next-Outing-Only) system.

I started experimenting with it because it showed good promise for the show bets (we call them "PLACE" bets over there), but at present it is looking like a promising system for WIN bets. The point I am making is you never really know which way the trial will go, so it's better to monitor it on all fronts.

Good luck.

[markgoldie]

Speculus: Thanks for advice. However, the show pools at many tracks in this country are so low that it impossible to make a significant show wager without destroying the payout. As I mentioned on my other thread, I am a fairly high-volume gimmick player who would like to bet a large-ish amount in the win pool to make it worthwhile as an adjunct to my main play. But this, while problematic in the win pool, would be impossible to show.
However, thanks again for the well-meant advice.

[markgoldie]

Results for Monday, 9/14:

7 plays, no winners.

Note: My deepest apologies but I am forced to shut down this thread. After a detailed analysis of the method, I now realized something that I should have before even posting it: It requires a very important tweaking that I am not prepared to do because of the time involved in doing so. As I mentioned when starting, the thought behind this was from some anecdotal experience that produced some very longshot winners. But I can now see that the situations in which such horses can even have a chance to be effective requires a very much more involved form of handicapping. In addition, it's apparent that this "tweaking" will cut down the number of plays drastically and so much work for so little opportunity is not productive.

Again, sorry for starting something which I cannot finish.

Mark