9/13 at Belmont

[cees with dees]

I have a couple of strong opinions tomorrow and I'm assuming only the Stakes races will be on the turf although one of them may be moved to the widener.
In the first race, Hedge Fund looks to be the controlling speed in an otherwise paceless race. It's been a long time between drinks for this Phipps reject but may have found a winning spot for barn way overdue to get hot.
In the 4th, Our Lady Liberty ran well in spots in debut. Barn was corpse cold the entire Spa meet and turned things around in a big way winning the opening race of the meet.
A longshot worth a look.
In the fifth assuming it will be on the dirt, Strong Commitment towers over the field and the slop shouldn't be a problem. Don't expect more than even money but a good key in any multi race exotics.
In the 7th, Banrock absolutely adores soft turf and has made a tremendous living destroying statebreds.
One of the best managed good horses in the game and gets great setup to continue his dominance over this type.
In the 8th, Even Raise has a huge shot to upset the odds on entry here. Adores a wet track and should get a great stalking trip just off what should be a contentious pace.
In the 9th, Grand Couturier always runs his race and can win of a fast or slow pace. The one to beat as always but Americain is a big possiblity. Tough trip in U.S. debut and moves way up on soft turf.
IN the 10th, Master owes me big time. Back on dirt, he should be the main speed from the rail and field is light in competition except for Everybodywantsone. Ran quite well in same turf race against Master and appears a better dirt horse than turf. Huge Tomlinson for a wet track and can win from on or off the pace.
Looks like a good card if it doesn't get scratched to death and note, if you think it's relevant, Bruce Levine and Gary Contessa have been using mud calks in the rear on occasion and that info is no longer announced.
Good luck to all.
Ben:):):)

[theguarantee]

Thank you for your thoughts. Wrote before that I planned on getting very selective and was secretly planning to take tomorrow off especially with the NFL on...then I went ahead and gave the card a look and I don't think I can stay away. Feel like I have an opinion in every race.

Very much in agreement with you about Banrock, GC and perhaps most of all - Master.

Very much liking the idea of beating the ML chalk Jacobson coupling in the first. Don't really get the ML to be honest, my guess is Debating is sent off as the favorite. May look to use Hedge Fund with the 1 and 7...not expecting a huge price but looks logical enough to me.

Have to do a bit more capping tonight and in the morning, have yet to do anything but skim. Back with some more thoughts hopefully.

[Bertrando]

The thoughts shared in both posts were excellent . I am off to Belmont today and I will use the ideas that were shared.
Master in the 10th is where I think I am getting off the bus . On paper he does look like he is in a great spot . Sovereign paid handsomely for this guy and he is dropping thru conditions like a rock for them . He will likely appear in Mountaineer anytime soon. That said , he is a certified money burner who loves to disappoint. Not for me !
# 8 Sultans Sword is where I am landing . I know he has his warts too. Mott is 33% in MdSpWt to Claimers ,Kent is sticking around . He took $$ in his 1st two starts and appeared to be a well meant in both races.

[theguarantee]

Liking the 5, Moon Drop, in the second race. It coming off the turf should help, hopefully doesn't kill the value too much. Will be playing it over the 2 for a decent amount on a straight exacta.

Thinking a pick-3: 1,8/5/1,2,6

Also will play the early double 8/5.

In the fourth I like the 6. The 1 died late last out and while holding for second, I think the track condition helped...now will be asked to go even further. The 6 has been well bet and run up against some decent horses, including an impressive debut. A little worried about a battle with the 1 but I think will win. Going to box it with the 4 and probably include that 3 in there on a separate ticket.

Late pick-4 looking something like this:
6/1,5,8,11/1,2,6/1,8

Want to single Master, but not sure I can. Thabazimbi maybe could be cut in the 9th, but coming off a 1 3/16 effort at Toga (a poor one), I could see this horse getting out there without much competition and maybe holding on.

Maybe after scratches it will be cut down anyway.

Good luck today.

[Marshall Bennett]

Early Pick 4 : 1,2 / All / 1,2,4,7,8 / 4
Late Pick 4 : 1,3,6,7,8 / 1 / 1,4,5,8,9 / 1,8 @$50 each

[cees with dees]

Contessa really must like Speak Easy Gal to have scratched the Winning Move mto. Lots of long slow breezes for first start in 8 months but looks the part in the paddock and this is a really bad field.
Pick 4 is : 1/ALL/1,2,3,8/4,5 $40
It's a small play and don't know if I'm safe on the end with the soft turf making it a crap shoot. Should at least make it that far if the 1 can get it done here.
Ben

[cees with dees]

Liking the 5, Moon Drop, in the second race. It coming off the turf should help, hopefully doesn't kill the value too much. Will be playing it over the 2 for a decent amount on a straight exacta.

Thinking a pick-3: 1,8/5/1,2,6

Also will play the early double 8/5.

In the fourth I like the 6. The 1 died late last out and while holding for second, I think the track condition helped...now will be asked to go even further. The 6 has been well bet and run up against some decent horses, including an impressive debut. A little worried about a battle with the 1 but I think will win. Going to box it with the 4 and probably include that 3 in there on a separate ticket.

Late pick-4 looking something like this:
6/1,5,8,11/1,2,6/1,8

Want to single Master, but not sure I can. Thabazimbi maybe could be cut in the 9th, but coming off a 1 3/16 effort at Toga (a poor one), I could see this horse getting out there without much competition and maybe holding on.

Maybe after scratches it will be cut down anyway.

Good luck today.

I'm very wary of Master on soft footing.
Believe it or not, Pat Quick's horse, despite many chances, will be flying at the wire at a nice price.
Again, the soft turf is the equalizer and if Master runs badly here, I'd be interested in him next time on firm ground.
Good luck,
Ben

[theguarantee]

Well a couple of the horses I liked were scratched, for better or worse.

Somehow today, I managed to mess up three separate tickets. Instead of singling Banrock in the late pick-4 I had the 7 horse. Amazingly, in a separate pick-3, I had the 2 horse. Sickened, I didn't bother to check any of the races until I knew the 10th was over and saw a nice winner to salvage the day with the exacta. Then I looked at my ticket and saw I accidentally played the 10 instead of the 1. Not my day.

I can sleep easier tonight knowing that I was trying to beat the favorite in the 8th...and as always seems to happen, Godolphin beat me anyway. Still sour about the Master exacta, but not nearly as much as I would have been if the 5,8 or 11 took the 8th.

Might be break time for me.