question: does the leader of the herd run in front because he's fastest of all?

[bisket]

we've broken races down every which way to tuesday. with speed figs that include track variant, wind speed :confused: , path horse takes from start to finish, etc. etc. but does the leader of this herd run in front because he's the fastest?
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3NoyS3zfobw&feature=related
answer: no!!!!!!!
does this phenomina have any bearing on thoroughbreds racing for carrots? ;) and the approval of their care takers
yes!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! :p
i think the best example of what i'm refering to is the affirmed and alydar duels. i think the belmont shows what i'm talking about.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=d2sjDivffYE

notice how no matter what affirmed is always in front. to this day i know affirmed won all the important races, but i don't necessarily think he may have been the fastest horse. i truly believe ALYDAR was the most important FACTOR IN ANY SPEED FIGURE THAT CAN COMPUTED FOR ALL OF THEIR RACES. NO MATTER HOW FAST ALYDAR WOULD RUN AFFIRMED WOULD RUN FASTER. i've said it once and i'll say it a million times. you can't compare speed figs and times from one race to the next. every horses time AND SPEED FIG IS RELATIVE TO THE HORSES THAT RAN IN THAT PARTICULAR RACE!!!!!! how horse react to each other has alot of bearing on how a race is run and HOW FAST A RACE IS RUN!!!!!
what does everyone think?

[OTM Al]

Jorge Velazquez told me that he could never get Alydar to change leads. Loved the horse but thought he was pretty bull headed. Always felt that he would have gotten a couple of those races had the horse done what he told him to do. So maybe there are other reasons than what you think...

[Fastracehorse]

R u saying herding instincts have an effect on which horses grab the early lead?

To handicap the leader at the quarter pole is fundamental to the game. Just look at the racing form.

I think U are wayyyyyyyy overemphasizing something that may have some impact in very rare situations.

fffastt

[Greyfox]

Herd instinct. The first two furlongs usually belong to the horse.
Over millions of years of development their preferred position will be dictated by their hard wiring and muscular-skeletal inheritance.
Sometimes you'll see a jock send a horse that isn't meant for the front, to the front for a four or six furlong work and then it stops. For all intents and purposes the fastest horse doesn't necessarily run to the front.

[Norm]

In the wild, it's always the alpha mare who leads the herd. The herd is made up of fillies, mares, young, non-breeding colts and one stallion. Males will fight, not race to demonstrate superiority and herd leadership. Mares will race, not fight, for the honor of leading the herd. The alpha mare is a prestigious position and a female will run her heart out to gain that position. The male will intimidate, kick-butt, to maintain his status. Thus, the male will try to scare you off, but the filly will run you into the ground or die trying. At the track, speed figures are for fillies, class analysis is for colts/geldings. Among males, it's the meanest horse, not the fastest who wins in most instances.

[Robert Fischer]

I always thought the dominant male took up the rear of the herd :confused:

[46zilzal]

Herd instinct. The first two furlongs usually belong to the horse.
Over millions of years of development their preferred position will be dictated by their hard wiring and muscular-skeletal inheritance.
Sometimes you'll see a jock send a horse that isn't meant for the front, to the front for a four or six furlong work and then it stops. For all intents and purposes the fastest horse doesn't necessarily run to the front.
EXACTLY what Desmond Morris stated in Horsewatching...The Naked Ape fellow

[bisket]

Jorge Velazquez told me that he could never get Alydar to change leads. Loved the horse but thought he was pretty bull headed. Always felt that he would have gotten a couple of those races had the horse done what he told him to do. So maybe there are other reasons than what you think...
i would like to thank you for making my point for me. yes i believe alydar wouldn't listen to valzquez because he was listening to affirmed. why? because affirmed was da boss!!

[bisket]

In the wild, it's always the alpha mare who leads the herd. The herd is made up of fillies, mares, young, non-breeding colts and one stallion. Males will fight, not race to demonstrate superiority and herd leadership. Mares will race, not fight, for the honor of leading the herd. The alpha mare is a prestigious position and a female will run her heart out to gain that position. The male will intimidate, kick-butt, to maintain his status. Thus, the male will try to scare you off, but the filly will run you into the ground or die trying. At the track, speed figures are for fillies, class analysis is for colts/geldings. Among males, it's the meanest horse, not the fastest who wins in most instances.
norm i want to say right now your my hero!!!!!!

[bisket]

R u saying herding instincts have an effect on which horses grab the early lead?

To handicap the leader at the quarter pole is fundamental to the game. Just look at the racing form.

I think U are wayyyyyyyy overemphasizing something that may have some impact in very rare situations.

fffastt
the main problem a trainer has with a horse who runs to the front is most times the horse thinks he already won at the 1/4 pole!!

[bisket]

I always thought the dominant male took up the rear of the herd :confused:
which seemed to be rich's kid's problem :bang: that horse is a stud!!!! and now that he's figured things out intimidation will be the name of his game.

[OTM Al]

i would like to thank you for making my point for me. yes i believe alydar wouldn't listen to valzquez because he was listening to affirmed. why? because affirmed was da boss!!

Um...no. He wouldn't do it other times either including many of the races he won.

[bisket]

i don't really think anyone could really figure that out for fact, and you may very well be right. fact is i don't believe affirmed won all those races like he did because he was faster than alydar. thats really what i'm getting at. i'm just trying to get these numbers guys to take into consideration that other things come into play into who wins the race.

[speculus]

My two cents.

Thanks to whatever little research I have done over the last three decades, I am thoroughly convinced that the first 1-1/2 furlongs out of the gates (I am NOT referring to quarter horse racing, only Thoroughbred racing) most horses manage to DISREGARD signals from their jocks and run their own race in their own style. I think only after about the first 35-40 strides, a horse can be forced to LISTEN to what the jock has to say, NOT before that.

[Robert Goren]

i would like to thank you for making my point for me. yes i believe alydar wouldn't listen to valzquez because he was listening to affirmed. why? because affirmed was da boss!! This why some jockeys take some of their mount very wide. They know that their horse will not pass a horse if " looks him in the eye".

[bisket]

in response to robert goren's post. yes i think this years horse that is like this would be mtb. if you noticed in the belmont when mtb got to the front borel angled him in ward towards dunkirk. when those two began to battle i noticed in dunkirks body language that he became very aggressive, and after about a 1/2 furlong he passed mtb. you could just see mtb's body language a total deflation. then outside summer bird passsed. what i liked so much about summer bird's haskell was he raced with horses the entire race and improved. i liked that!!

[markgoldie]

I've owned a number of alpha males over the years. Some make good racehorses and some don't. The one's that don't simply resent what humans are trying to make them do. For example, if you ride them hard or hit them with a whip, they don't want to run faster, they want to stop and fight you. Many of these types are moody and will run only when it suits them.

Of the ones that do want to race competitively, many are soundness headaches because they never protect themselves from pain. Some run at the competition such that the jock is always wrenching the horse off the guy next to him. Of the closing types, some have a habit of getting involved in personal vendettas with a horse near the tail end of the pack and lose sight of the fact that the important race is up ahead.

But the ones that stay sound and understand the object of winning, can produce some incredible efforts. Often, they adopt their own winning strategy and whatever the jockey (good, bad, or indifferent) attempts to do is completely irrelavent to the horse. For the focused alpha, the person on his back is a meaningless passenger.

Alphas are known to "taunt" their competition by adopting a certain amount of advantage and purposely maintaining it even though it's well within their ability to draw away from the taunted competitor. In the case of Affirmed vs. Alydar, it is theoretically possible that Alydar was the alpha, engaged in a taunt against Affirmed. Here, Alydar's plan is not to maintain an advantage but to extend the competitor to exhaustion by staying nose to nose with him. All the time, Alydar knows he can pass any time he wants, but doing so ends the eye-to-eye taunt. In this scenario, Alydar's taunt is misjudged as to winning, but successful in his mind nonetheless.

The degree of "alphaness" of a horse is most easily discerned when the animal is turned out with other males. The problem with expensive horses is that this never happens because of the danger of injury. There are other clues, of course. But we may never know who was the "bigger alpha" between Affirmed and Alydar, although we know who received all the glory.

[JBmadera]

I agree with Mark, just based on watching my horses when they were turned out in the arena - a couple of my best horses would always want to be in "the lead" but just barely. I could tell that they'd slow up so that they would only have their heads in front. One mare I had was lazy except if she saw me working with one of the other horses then she'd race around like all get out.

bottom line - I pay much more attention to QP's than I did in the past to get an idea of the "herd shape" of the race, but it's only one of many factors I consider when h-capping a race.

JB

[Robert Fischer]

I did a search on google, In the wild, it appears that alpha males stay in the rear of the herd, but apparently they lead if they are running from danger.

[JBmadera]

this is how I apply it to racing - if a horse has the best fr1 time but does not have a qp advantage (running style is not one of the only F or E) then I will guess that he/she will run just slow enough to be in the group and as such I won't think it will get an easy lead; on the other hand if a horse has a clear qp advantage but maybe not a clear advantage in fr1 I will use on top. I figure "in bred" running style trumps factions most days.

cheers,

jb

[bisket]

my opinion of this years crop of 3 year old males is quality road is the alpha. he shows all the qualities so to speak. i think second in line would be dunkirk. dunkirk showed in all his wins a dominating type body language, but folded up in the florida derby. when i saw dunkirk fold up like that i knew the hiearchy had been set. the only question was where would i want revenge's place be. i didn't have dunkirk in any of my exotics for derby day. after folding up like that i just didn't think he would be there at the end. i felt he needed some time between starts. i liked dunkirk's belmont because of how he raced with mtb, and felt his next out would have been a monster. put him in the equation with rachel, and things may have a little different in the haskell. the rest just showed to be nondominant males. just my opinion. speed figs are relevant to make sure a horse is fast enough to beat the others, but they have to be taken relevant to these above observations. using observations like this always net good plays with good odds!!!!!!

[bisket]

mark thanks for contributing that was an excellant explanation and the same thing i heard for others i trust in the game. replays are the best tool thats copme along in handicapping in a long time!!

[jasperson]

[QUOTE=Robert Goren]This why some jockeys take some of their mount very wide. They know that their horse will not pass a horse if " looks him in the eye".[/QUOTE
All his trainer had to do it put a patch over Alydars left eye and he would have went right by Affirmed.:D :D :D :D :D

[Fastracehorse]

I agree with Mark, just based on watching my horses when they were turned out in the arena - a couple of my best horses would always want to be in "the lead" but just barely. I could tell that they'd slow up so that they would only have their heads in front. One mare I had was lazy except if she saw me working with one of the other horses then she'd race around like all get out.

bottom line - I pay much more attention to QP's than I did in the past to get an idea of the "herd shape" of the race, but it's only one of many factors I consider when h-capping a race.

JB

It could be that the horse is curious. Horse's like company - hence the pony horse. Blinkers off going long: allows the horse to look around to satisfy curiousity, and hopefully relax, and therefore go longer.

fffastt

[Fastracehorse]

my opinion of this years crop of 3 year old males is quality road is the alpha. he shows all the qualities so to speak. i think second in line would be dunkirk. dunkirk showed in all his wins a dominating type body language, but folded up in the florida derby. when i saw dunkirk fold up like that i knew the hiearchy had been set. the only question was where would i want revenge's place be. i didn't have dunkirk in any of my exotics for derby day. after folding up like that i just didn't think he would be there at the end. i felt he needed some time between starts. i liked dunkirk's belmont because of how he raced with mtb, and felt his next out would have been a monster. put him in the equation with rachel, and things may have a little different in the haskell. the rest just showed to be nondominant males. just my opinion. speed figs are relevant to make sure a horse is fast enough to beat the others, but they have to be taken relevant to these above observations. using observations like this always net good plays with good odds!!!!!!

While I admit there is something to what U r saying, I really believe it has a neglible impact on handicapping. Yes the stretch drives in NY, U don't want your horse on the lead to look at the horse comeing to engage him for the duel to the wire. U want your horse to bear down and run. But many times your animal does turn his head to see who is coming. Is he scared? Is he curious? Whatever. Good jocks wait on the field to save horse. They aren't neccessarily, worried about instincts.

Jocks can rate a speed horse. Happens many many times throughout they year with live horses.

Horses can be given stimulants to run way over their head, and it seems the last thing that is going on is instinctual.

Horses can wire a field on the grass because thay are in great form, so they go to the front. They may have not gone to the front in previous races - for a variety of reasons - nottheleast of which is soundness.

Horses can rate off the pace on grass because the connections project a better chance of winning staying off a hot pace.

While herding instinct is real, and to think biologically is intelligent, the aforementioned wiring is not a poweful handicapping factor in any situation.

Handicapping is about pace, speed, trip, and form. The danger of instincts come from the gambleing connections trying to fool U.

fffastt

[bisket]

While I admit there is something to what U r saying, I really believe it has a neglible impact on handicapping. Yes the stretch drives in NY, U don't want your horse on the lead to look at the horse comeing to engage him for the duel to the wire. U want your horse to bear down and run. But many times your animal does turn his head to see who is coming. Is he scared? Is he curious? Whatever. Good jocks wait on the field to save horse. They aren't neccessarily, worried about instincts.

Jocks can rate a speed horse. Happens many many times throughout they year with live horses.

Horses can be given stimulants to run way over their head, and it seems the last thing that is going on is instinctual.

Horses can wire a field on the grass because thay are in great form, so they go to the front. They may have not gone to the front in previous races - for a variety of reasons - nottheleast of which is soundness.

Horses can rate off the pace on grass because the connections project a better chance of winning staying off a hot pace.

While herding instinct is real, and to think biologically is intelligent, the aforementioned wiring is not a poweful handicapping factor in any situation.

Handicapping is about pace, speed, trip, and form. The danger of instincts come from the gambleing connections trying to fool U.

fffastt
all of this is true and plays an integral part of my handicapping, but so does all these factors. the fact is quality intimidated dunkirk because he had the stamina and speed in the stretch to beat dunkirk in the fla derby. my play in the fla derby was quality because he showed the speed and stamina against TOP QUALITY 3 YEAR OLD. WHERE DUNKIRK BULLIED HIS WAY TO VICTORY IN AN ALLOWANCE RACE. CLASS PLAYED THE BIGGEST PART OF THAT DECISION BECAUSE WE WERE DEALING WITH COLTS NOT FILLIES!!!!!! why was quality second choice? because most handicappers were impressed with the way dunkirk manhandled allowance and maidens. i was unimpressed. this method works with the 3 year olds because they are at the point where they finding there place. i only go by my observations during the races, and of course the jock plays a part in the scenerio. as do the trainers, but when i can see what's going by my own observations in relation to how the horse are reacting to each other. i bet accordingly. this isn't a thread minimizing drf's and beyers and precious speed figs. it a thread dicussing how to take things in context and possibly the horse with the lower speed fig may just win. my point is adding and subtracting your way to picks is only handicapping one aspect of a race!!!

[bisket]

fast horse drf. i left dunkirk out of my trifecta because of how he reacted to quality running away from him. do you think that was a good handicapping decision?

[Imriledup]

My two cents.

Thanks to whatever little research I have done over the last three decades, I am thoroughly convinced that the first 1-1/2 furlongs out of the gates (I am NOT referring to quarter horse racing, only Thoroughbred racing) most horses manage to DISREGARD signals from their jocks and run their own race in their own style. I think only after about the first 35-40 strides, a horse can be forced to LISTEN to what the jock has to say, NOT before that.

I agree with this.

[Fastracehorse]

all of this is true and plays an integral part of my handicapping, but so does all these factors. the fact is quality intimidated dunkirk because he had the stamina and speed in the stretch to beat dunkirk in the fla derby. my play in the fla derby was quality because he showed the speed and stamina against TOP QUALITY 3 YEAR OLD. WHERE DUNKIRK BULLIED HIS WAY TO VICTORY IN AN ALLOWANCE RACE. CLASS PLAYED THE BIGGEST PART OF THAT DECISION BECAUSE WE WERE DEALING WITH COLTS NOT FILLIES!!!!!! why was quality second choice? because most handicappers were impressed with the way dunkirk manhandled allowance and maidens. i was unimpressed. this method works with the 3 year olds because they are at the point where they finding there place. i only go by my observations during the races, and of course the jock plays a part in the scenerio. as do the trainers, but when i can see what's going by my own observations in relation to how the horse are reacting to each other. i bet accordingly. this isn't a thread minimizing drf's and beyers and precious speed figs. it a thread dicussing how to take things in context and possibly the horse with the lower speed fig may just win. my point is adding and subtracting your way to picks is only handicapping one aspect of a race!!!

Trainers are just trying to keep them sound while trying to develop them - and trying to earn a lil' purse $$. Tough task to do.

Your horse just may have been faster, fitter, tighter - all of those things. How do U intimidate a horse by having more stamina - the horse he beat may just have been plain done. Nice pick but your example doesn't support a sound handicapping factor of alphaness.

fffastt

[Fastracehorse]

fast horse drf. i left dunkirk out of my trifecta because of how he reacted to quality running away from him. do you think that was a good handicapping decision?

I don't think it was a good or bad decision. I think U applied a factor that was meaningless and it happened to work out for U.

fffastt

[Fastracehorse]

I agree with this.

Speed is innate. Some horses are quick from the gate, some aren't - it's part of handicapping. I don't need to know who is THE INTIMIDATOR. The best savageing in a race I ever saw was by a mare.

fffastt

[bisket]

I don't think it was a good or bad decision. I think U applied a factor that was meaningless and it happened to work out for U.

fffastt
i'm one really, really, really, lucky guy then

[bisket]

Trainers are just trying to keep them sound while trying to develop them - and trying to earn a lil' purse $$. Tough task to do.

Your horse just may have been faster, fitter, tighter - all of those things. How do U intimidate a horse by having more stamina - the horse he beat may just have been plain done. Nice pick but your example doesn't support a sound handicapping factor of alphaness.

fffastt
you intimidate a horse by being able to meet their challenge and running away from them (stamina). there is absolutely know way of knowing what will happen ahead of time, but after dunkirk shriveled up like he did. do you think dunkirk ran to the best of his ability afterwards in the race? i say no!!! this would affect his speed figure wouldn't it? now to expand on this argument; quality's speed figure was also effected by this observation. to expand even more. isn't very helpful to a handicapper to know ahead of time when a horse "goes off form" as you say. especially in the derby!!!

[Norm]

The most dramatic eyeball-to-eyeball battle you will ever see is the 1962 Travers Stakes. This is what happens when two alpha males lock on each other and will not break-off eye contact. This is a case where intimidation generated speed. To slow-down means to break eye contact and these two guys had the strength and stamina to carry their personal dispute from the gate to the wire. They broke a 40-some year old track record that day. If anyone is not familiar with this race, here's a link to the video -

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-rKCAhELwhc (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-rKCAhELwhc)

I am one of those who places a high value on the intimidation factor or the "pecking order" which horses establish among themselves. In just one example where it can be useful would be where two horses have just engaged in a stretch duel and one of them gave way. Both should be watched next time out. The winner of the duel has just had his self-esteem enhanced and will want to do it again. (But, beware of a class hike.) The loser of the duel wants revenge, preferably against a softer field, he's a good candidate next out if there is a class drop. (but, only if he held second, if he is passed by many horses after yielding, he is humiliated and the experience may ruin him for future racing). This can occur between second and third place finishers if the winner was a double-digit length runaway winner. Of course, it should be obvious, that the farther down the class scale you go, the less important this factor is. In a $5k claimer, it's like saying whose the meanest guy at the old people's home. That tough looking dude may want to whack you with his cane if he doesn't have a heart attack from trying :) . Also keep in mind that this applies to males only, fillies have a different way of sorting out their pecking order.

There is more to it than this, but this one example may be useful to those who have never given this factor a thought.

[illinoisbred]

Your comments remind me of what an old-timer trainer once told me-racehorses are alot like prizefighters .They respond the same to big wins and bad defeats.

[bisket]

norm i wasn't on this forum at the time, but after the fla derby i said that i didn't think dunkirk should go to the derby, and if it were me the peter pan is where i would point him. he was put into the derby only because it would increase his breeding value. every year pletcher's horses get bothered, scraped etc. etc etc. in the derby. theres a million ways to explain away a loss in the derby when its 5-10 years later and your trying to get 100k per sperm donation!! pletcher gets a percentage of all his horses syndications so many times his horses aren't in the big races because he thinks they got a shot.

[bisket]

I agree with this.
i don't and will explain why. fact dominate males take up the rear of the herd until theres danger. question: when do the jocks break out the whip? IN THE STRETCH!!. what purpose does the whip have, and how does it achieve this purpose. the purpose of the whip is to scare the horse. it achieves this because the horse thinks there's a carnivor on its flanks wanting to have it for dinner!!! then the alpha's commence to decide who is da boss!!! so a horse does have to have the stamina to race in the stretch of 1 1/4 mile race. a horse does have to be fast enough to win a 1 1/4 mile race, but not always does the fastest horse win!!!!!! when it comes to the boys never discount class!!!!!! especially when its 3-1 or better, and fit and ready.

[bisket]

back to pletcher and dunkirk in the derby. this one time pletcher does have proof with his many excuses for losing the derby with his horses. dunkirk stumbled at the start. :rolleyes:

[bisket]

Your comments remind me of what an old-timer trainer once told me-racehorses are alot like prizefighters .They respond the same to big wins and bad defeats.
how they lose does depend on what happens next out. what alot of trainers will do is have them pass some horse in the stretch; if the horse isn't quite fit to race or just race evenly. i look for this as spring boards to better efforts. a mono on mono stretch battle isn't a springboard to better efforts. the winner will sometimes feel like a milllion bucks, but have nothing for next out. the loser is one sourpuss of a critter for awhile.

[Norm]

norm i wasn't on this forum at the time, but after the fla derby i said that i didn't think dunkirk should go to the derby, and if it were me the peter pan is where i would point him. he was put into the derby only because it would increase his breeding value. every year pletcher's horses get bothered, scraped etc. etc etc. in the derby. theres a million ways to explain away a loss in the derby when its 5-10 years later and your trying to get 100k per sperm donation!! pletcher gets a percentage of all his horses syndications so many times his horses aren't in the big races because he thinks they got a shot.
I just reviewed the video of that race. You have selected an excellent example of the dynamics of the intimidation and class factor. Right out of the gate Casey's on Call (COC) makes a classic gesture. Those 5 quick stride he makes to put him in front delivers the message "I'm just so much faster than you, you really shouldn't bother". This maneuver often wins a race in the first 100 yds., it is disheartening to be outrun like this at the beginning when all are still strong. But Quality Road (QR) has moved with him. QR can feel his own strength better than any jockey can and wants after this pretender. There is a horse outside of QR, notice how quickly that horse yields when QR wants some racing room and how quickly QR moves up on COC. In the meantime, Dunkirk is way back, not so terrible since in the wild the head-honcho often runs in the rear to nip at the heels of stragglers and defend the herd from predators. Only when the stallion wants to change the direction of the herd, will he circle the herd to reach the front which he does easily as Dunkirk did. Meanwhile QR has dispatched the front runner with 5 quick strides of his own and COC quickly yields to this challenge. Now in the stretch, Dunkirk has reached the leader who is not an alpha mare as would be expected, but a strong male rival who will not yield ! Notice how the horse running between them quickly backs away from these two. Eyeball-to-eyeball for just a moment, QR has one more 5 stride kick in him and Dunkirk is devastated. The race is over. The run to the wire is anti-climatic. You are absolutely correct, Dunkirk should have been given a softer race next out to rebuild his confidence after this ego-shattering experience. Also worth noting is all of those horses who ran timidly in the "safety" of the middle of the herd who are less likely to be Grade 1 runners in the future.

[bisket]

yes quality is the stud of this group. he showed it in the fountain of youth when he beat a field of the best speed assembled to race until that point. he raced with them at the beginning and didn't falter at the end. just like he did in the fla derby. i'm a little uneasy right now with him though. i'll probably get some odds on him in the jcgc, but i hope the travers hasn't changed things. summer was impressive.

[bisket]

it looks like quality is never comfortable in this race and has mud kicked in his face for the first time. he really looks like he's spinning his wheels in the stretch and never stops trying. he'll get the majority of my money
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JI-ALTl8L1g

[bisket]

another thing you brought up is it appeared horses moved out of quality's way. oh i believe this happens all the time. you will notice how some horse just never seem to be blocked and some always seem to get blocked. i don't believe this is always by accident!! i thought it funny when handicappers would say the only reason street sense won the juvie and the derby is because he got a dream trip. i don't think that happened by accident. its a shame borel allowed him to lose concentration in the preakness and curlin knocked his peacock off. my uncle who was very influential in teaching the handicapping game to me always said, "never bet against a colt who has his peacock, unless another comes along and knocks it off."

[WinterTriangle]

EXACTLY what Desmond Morris stated in Horsewatching...The Naked Ape fellow

100% agree.

also, wouldn't the female thing explain why in maiden races if there is a lone filly, she often wins?

[fmolf]

100% agree.

also, wouldn't the female thing explain why in maiden races if there is a lone filly, she often wins?
I agree with this assessment but each new race constitutes a new herdd so how do you use this in handicapping?I do not think you can effectively.I also do not think that horses have long memories.....this is why horses take turns beating each other at most class levels.If there was any credence to any of this equine psycho-babble the same few horses in each class level at each track would be winning all the races!

[bisket]

when you get below graded competition you pretty much don't have alot of this going on. yes every race constitutes a new herd, but isn't it much easier to put together trifecta's and exotics knowing which horses will compete for leadership. also doesn't it give you an edge when you can eliminate a horse like dunkirk derby day. seeing how he's going to get alot of attention at the windows. makes putting together a winning trifecta alot more manageable on your betting account derby day; with a 20 horse field in one of the most lucrative exotic opportunities.

[PaceAdvantage]

i'm just trying to get these numbers guys to take into consideration that other things come into play into who wins the race.Why, we never try to get non-numbers guys to take numbers into consideration?:lol:

But in all seriousness, we "numbers" guys KNOW other things come into play into who wins the race. Certain factors, such as "herd mentality" are way too intangible (in my opinion) to even bother trying to figure out...

[bisket]

its pretty simple. i'm not proposing handicappers should take a college course on the horse or study horse psychology :confused: . just watch how horses react to each other. every handicapper is on the horse with gradually improving pace figs. watch race replays and see how horses are reacting to each other, and take that into consideration when looking at their speed fig. you'll know when to get off a horse or get on a horse. especially in the big races. the derby is the best race for knowledgable handicappers to make some cake. this works for me mostly with three year olds. for instance i think dunkirk was definatly capable of the same speed fig as quality road, but i knew it wasn't going to happen inthe derby or probably his next race afterwards

[speculus]

Why, we never try to get non-numbers guys to take numbers into consideration?:lol:

But in all seriousness, we "numbers" guys KNOW other things come into play into who wins the race. Certain factors, such as "herd mentality" are way too intangible (in my opinion) to even bother trying to figure out...

Agree 100%, PA!

Until I read this thread I had always believed "effect of wind on galloping horses" was the concept most difficult to understand and apply to your handicapping (although there is a whole ready-made science about it that defines and calculates "drag", as it is called in physics), but "herd mentality" now replaces it! :confused:

On a more serious note, however, I must mention that I have come across some very, very strange instances which may possibly be explained only by some psychological angle related to horses, which of course, I don't have even the faintest idea of.

Last year, at Mysore (a racetrack in India), I noticed a strange thing. In a month's time or so, three horses won at massive odds (one of them at 70 to 1). These horses had no so-called "form" to speak of, I mean based on any generally known handicapping principle. However, all three of them, had tracked with a horse (mare) called Janasheen during the workouts prior to those runs. Janasheen herself was not in any great form either, with only one in-the-money finish from 8 or 9 starts during that season.

I called up the trainer of Janasheen and told him about this pattern (which he had missed noticing). He was as intrigued when I told him, and could not think of why it must have been so. Needless to add, the poor soul tried sending out some more nags from his stable to work with Janasheen, but they were not "transformed", and it remained a mystery if there was any connection between the earlier winners and their track work with Janasheen.

Was she, in some way, acting as some sort of a "motivator" during that period which transformed her dud companions to excel in their immediate next race?

I don't expect to find a definitive answer to that question, but thought I will share this strange incident with the readers of this forum.

[Norm]

A possible way for speed figure handicappers to get some use out of herd theory is to note the most typical running position of a horse in several races. Let's say a horse just ran a half-mile in :45 3/5. He looks promising, he was 4th at the time. In his previous race he ran a half in :48, he was 4th. It's starting to look like this horse doesn't lack speed, he lacks courage. He has found a favorite "safe" place in the herd and will run as fast as necessary to be there. He could be improving, but I would want to see at least one of two things in his PPs. I want to see if he ever ran in front at any time in any race, either on two occasions or at two points of call in one race, to show me he has no fear of being there or is in at a big class drop today. The middle of the herd is the safe place to be when there is perceived danger and a lot of horses prefer to be there. There may be some older New York players who remember the infamous 'Jacques Who' who went "undefeated", in second place, for many races. After many maiden races, his trainer finally caught on and the horse started finishing second in allowance and stakes races while still a maiden.

[46zilzal]

Horses DO interact, BUT it takes multiple interactions for a hierarchy to develop. This anthropomorphizing of how this pecking order expresses itself in a race are full of hooey. I did a senior paper on herd instincts and the basic requirement is evolution of that order over time and interaction upon interaction, so in a HERD it happens but there is no time nor the number of interactions available to some how develop any hierarchy during a race

[Fastracehorse]

another thing you brought up is it appeared horses moved out of quality's way. oh i believe this happens all the time. you will notice how some horse just never seem to be blocked and some always seem to get blocked. i don't believe this is always by accident!! i thought it funny when handicappers would say the only reason street sense won the juvie and the derby is because he got a dream trip. i don't think that happened by accident. its a shame borel allowed him to lose concentration in the preakness and curlin knocked his peacock off. my uncle who was very influential in teaching the handicapping game to me always said, "never bet against a colt who has his peacock, unless another comes along and knocks it off."

You cannot turn an interesting intangible into a powerful handicapping factor. Intimidation is not a factor U can or should measure. Horses can spook from the crowd - from gaps - etc.. And, many wear blinks ( where are da' eyeballs ). Don't forget - they are too tired to care about alphaness. Stopping cause of exhaustion isn't a sign of being intimidated.

fffastt

[bisket]

You cannot turn an interesting intangible into a powerful handicapping factor. Intimidation is not a factor U can or should measure. Horses can spook from the crowd - from gaps - etc.. And, many wear blinks ( where are da' eyeballs ). Don't forget - they are too tired to care about alphaness. Stopping cause of exhaustion isn't a sign of being intimidated.

fffastt
in some instances its a powerful factor and sometimes its not. just like anything you have to start doing it to get a feel for it. a horse stopping because of exhaustion is something that you should be able to analyze by studying the pps. three year olds in the winter and spring its something to really look at. one of the main things i was hoping to get across from this thread is: rich's kid wasn't running in the rear because he was slow. its because i really don't think he understood what was expected of him or who know's. i'll betcha if baffert were honest with everyone he probably doesn't know why the light finally turned on in rich's head. just because a horse runs in the back doesn't necessarily mean he is slow

[Fastracehorse]

in some instances its a powerful factor and sometimes its not. just like anything you have to start doing it to get a feel for it. a horse stopping because of exhaustion is something that you should be able to analyze by studying the pps. three year olds in the winter and spring its something to really look at. one of the main things i was hoping to get across from this thread is: rich's kid wasn't running in the rear because he was slow. its because i really don't think he understood what was expected of him or who know's. i'll betcha if baffert were honest with everyone he probably doesn't know why the light finally turned on in rich's head. just because a horse runs in the back doesn't necessarily mean he is slow

Very difficult to rate speed. Speed balls don't like being tactically rated, but it's beneficial to the outcome of the race, not because of being an alpha male, but beleive it or not, even alphas need to rate.

fffastt

[bisket]

i don't think alpha's always run to the front. my opinion is most times they are in the rear. i think big brown was an alpha, and i also think curlin was an alpha. look i'm not saying because a horse won't rate means he's an alpha. its plain to see when in the pps that a horse doesn't want to rate. its even more evident when watching a race. all i'm saying watch replays a couple of times and pay attention to the body language of horses. you may see something that you can use.

[samyn on the green]

How about that War Emblem? He ran on the front end like an Alpha Female. Then when they sent him to the breeding shed he still acted like a female. Any correlation there? I think so.

[Fastracehorse]

i don't think alpha's always run to the front. my opinion is most times they are in the rear. i think big brown was an alpha, and i also think curlin was an alpha. look i'm not saying because a horse won't rate means he's an alpha. its plain to see when in the pps that a horse doesn't want to rate. its even more evident when watching a race. all i'm saying watch replays a couple of times and pay attention to the body language of horses. you may see something that you can use.

Watching the parade and the warm up are a big part of my wager selection. Don't U like your horses nearer the front? Big Brown was a speed ball early in his career. His Derby victory was the most impressive I've ever seen.

fffastt

[bisket]

How about that War Emblem? He ran on the front end like an Alpha Female. Then when they sent him to the breeding shed he still acted like a female. Any correlation there? I think so.
i always said genuine risk and war emblem would have made a good pair; genuine risk could have been the horse, and war emblem the mare :cool:

[bisket]

Watching the parade and the warm up are a big part of my wager selection. Don't U like your horses nearer the front? Big Brown was a speed ball early in his career. His Derby victory was the most impressive I've ever seen.

fffastt
no to the contrary, i likem runnin in the rear the first 1/2. i to this day believe if deseaurmaux didn't try to strong arm brown out of the gate we'd have a triple crown winner!! if d'atara could beat that crowd on the front brown woulda won by 5. brown was an alpha and the rest were chumps.

[bisket]

to expand on that last post. what i really look for is a horse that runs his own race no matter the pace scenerio. i like a horse who runs a 47 half no matter what the field does. 111-112 3/4's and comes home around 23-24. thats a router of course.

[castaway01]

How about that War Emblem? He ran on the front end like an Alpha Female. Then when they sent him to the breeding shed he still acted like a female. Any correlation there? I think so.

Seattle Slew, Holy Bull...more scaredy-cat speed horses who failed as sires...oh wait...

So if I gave you a choice of two explanations for War Emblem's reluctance to breed: 1) The horse is "gay" or 2) The large number of steroids and other drugs he was given at a young age affected his sexual development, as it has affected the ability of several prominent females to breed, you'd really choose that the horse was a "female" or "gay". Wow.

[Show Me the Wire]

During my visual inspections of him, while under Springer’s care, I thought War Emblem sashayed a little too much, when he walked. ;)

[Bochall]

IMO herding is exemplified in 'bid and hang' horses. Some will come to the leaders and just not go by, no matter who they faced or how fast they were going. My best example is Hawksley Hill who, besides costing me serious bank by letting Da Hoss get back in front in the BC Mile, seemed to do this repeatedly. I can remember the Explosive Bid (now the M Muniz) at FG one year when he did it. Ten Most Wanted and Perfect Drift also, but not to that extent. I may be confusing the last two, but didn't TMW finish in the money in many a graded stakes but not get up? Yeah yeah yeah, War Emblem couldnt "get up" either...:D

[Show Me the Wire]

Herding is why jocks on some animals have to time their ride just right to get the horses nose in front at the wire.

[46zilzal]

IMO herding is exemplified in 'bid and hang' horses

Herd behavior is plastic (varies over time) and REQUIRES multiple, repetitious and long standing direct interactions to develop.

Horses interacting that have never confronted one another before, in the very unnatural environment of a race for those 20 25 minutes, would NEVER be anything close to the hierarchies studied over years and years.

There are many who do what you noticed, but herd behavior is not the major cause....not even the minor one.

[bisket]

Seattle Slew, Holy Bull...more scaredy-cat speed horses who failed as sires...oh wait...

So if I gave you a choice of two explanations for War Emblem's reluctance to breed: 1) The horse is "gay" or 2) The large number of steroids and other drugs he was given at a young age affected his sexual development, as it has affected the ability of several prominent females to breed, you'd really choose that the horse was a "female" or "gay". Wow.
it was a joke!!

[TJDave]

Jorge Velazquez told me that he could never get Alydar to change leads. Loved the horse but thought he was pretty bull headed. Always felt that he would have gotten a couple of those races had the horse done what he told him to do. So maybe there are other reasons than what you think...

Had Alydar been sound he would have got all the races. ;)

A good friend is the daughter of Reggie Cornell and an excellent trainer. Reggie said Alydar was a sore horse throughout his triple campaign and his trainer was clueless.

[bisket]

i think i hit a nerve here with the alydar example. i've heard a million and one reasons why affirmed was a whisker better.

[samyn on the green]

Yes War Emblem was flamboyantly gay, the horse racing equivalent of Freddie Mercury. He was known to throw a fit if his blanket did not match the color of his leg wraps.

Seattle Slew and Holy Bull were both just monsters. They were so masculine and so sure of themselves that it did not induce feelings of insecurity when they ran their races like a girl. Their power transcended sex, they were what we call ultimate alphas. Slew and Bull both knew that at any time they could open up a can whoop ass and make any colt in the race their stall bitch. They were both far from scardy cat speed horses. Seattle Slew, Holy Bull...more scaredy-cat speed horses who failed as sires...oh wait...

So if I gave you a choice of two explanations for War Emblem's reluctance to breed: 1) The horse is "gay" or 2) The large number of steroids and other drugs he was given at a young age affected his sexual development, as it has affected the ability of several prominent females to breed, you'd really choose that the horse was a "female" or "gay". Wow.

[46zilzal]

Yes War Emblem was flamboyantly gay, the horse racing equivalent of Freddie Mercury. He was known to throw a fit if his blanket did not match the color of his leg wraps.


There is no correlation to homosexuality in horses. They might not be interested in breeding but that does not mean they are going after their own sex.

More trying to impart human traits to animals.

[castaway01]

During my visual inspections of him, while under Springer’s care, I thought War Emblem sashayed a little too much, when he walked. ;)

He was a slut, no question... ;)

[46zilzal]

He was a slut, no question... ;)
when did traditionally "one sex" terms jump to become bilaterally applied?

[Hank]

There is no correlation to homosexuality in horses. They might not be interested in breeding but that does not mean they are going after their own sex.

More trying to impart human traits to animals.


He was joking 46.

[cj]

He was joking 46.

Be nice, he votes for the Sovereign Awards don't you know.

[46zilzal]

Be nice, he votes for the Sovereign Awards don't you know.
I once had a very good professor who use to come out with statements like "the pathology of _____________ was completely unknown until I DISCOVERED IT."

We reacted the same way YOU did until we looked him up: lead articles in the Journal of Pathology all the time just like this FACT of my being a sovereign award judge.

This is just one of the packets I have to go through each season: media, horse of the year, grass, two and three year olds, trainer, rider, photography, broodmare etc etc.

[cj]

I was never trying to insinuate that you weren't a voter for the Sovereign Awards. Insinuate that nobody cares, sure, but not that you were lying.

[Fastracehorse]

How about that War Emblem? He ran on the front end like an Alpha Female. Then when they sent him to the breeding shed he still acted like a female. Any correlation there? I think so.

But he was 20-1 wire2wire longshot in the Derby.

fffastt

[Fastracehorse]

to expand on that last post. what i really look for is a horse that runs his own race no matter the pace scenerio. i like a horse who runs a 47 half no matter what the field does. 111-112 3/4's and comes home around 23-24. thats a router of course.

But I want U 2 know U will get beat alot by speed. Alot.

fffastt

[Fastracehorse]

IMO herding is exemplified in 'bid and hang' horses. Some will come to the leaders and just not go by, no matter who they faced or how fast they were going. My best example is Hawksley Hill who, besides costing me serious bank by letting Da Hoss get back in front in the BC Mile, seemed to do this repeatedly. I can remember the Explosive Bid (now the M Muniz) at FG one year when he did it. Ten Most Wanted and Perfect Drift also, but not to that extent. I may be confusing the last two, but didn't TMW finish in the money in many a graded stakes but not get up? Yeah yeah yeah, War Emblem couldnt "get up" either...:D

Your horse could just be a victim of his running style. Alot of jocks try and wire the field by grabbing the lead and then trying to save as much horse as possible by coddleing them 2 the wire. When your horse makes his bold move the leader is waiting on him - and then accelerates home. Making your charge's bid - just that.

What I notice alot is that horses are often more interested in who is coming to engage them - than they are on running on to the wire - like punters wish they would.

There was a fresh 3yo in Calder's 7th today. He was 40-1 and best! But was all over the inside horse he was duelling with in the short grass sprint. He then got his mind on the game and ran onto the wire to win - when another horse came onto the scene to his outside. When the 40-1 heard this horse he wanted 2 play. It was hilarious - he turned his head hard right to the outside horse and came out on him; he finsihed 2nd. And then subsequently was DQ'd to last for the stretch and an earlier incident. Funny as hell - unless of course U bet on this animal.

fffastt

[TiznowfaninNY]

There is no correlation to homosexuality in horses. They might not be interested in breeding but that does not mean they are going after their own sex.

More trying to impart human traits to animals.

Yeah, no way War Emblem is gay. He proved that he didn't want the "third leg" on Belmont day.

[PaceAdvantage]

I was never trying to insinuate that you weren't a voter for the Sovereign Awards. Insinuate that nobody cares, sure, but not that you were lying.Don't worry CJ. I believe most if not all of us were aware that you weren't calling 46 a liar, like he mistakenly interpreted.

[bisket]

But I want U 2 know U will get beat alot by speed. Alot.

fffastt
not when it counts :p

[bisket]

Your horse could just be a victim of his running style. Alot of jocks try and wire the field by grabbing the lead and then trying to save as much horse as possible by coddleing them 2 the wire. When your horse makes his bold move the leader is waiting on him - and then accelerates home. Making your charge's bid - just that.

What I notice alot is that horses are often more interested in who is coming to engage them - than they are on running on to the wire - like punters wish they would.

There was a fresh 3yo in Calder's 7th today. He was 40-1 and best! But was all over the inside horse he was duelling with in the short grass sprint. He then got his mind on the game and ran onto the wire to win - when another horse came onto the scene to his outside. When the 40-1 heard this horse he wanted 2 play. It was hilarious - he turned his head hard right to the outside horse and came out on him; he finsihed 2nd. And then subsequently was DQ'd to last for the stretch and an earlier incident. Funny as hell - unless of course U bet on this animal.

fffastt
this is one to follow because at some point the horse just may figure things out, and when he does he'll probably pay good!! the spoils always goes to the handicapper who can see when a horse is gonna win at 25-1. not at 2-1. put him in your stable and watch his works. although somtimes horses like this always finish in the money, and he's not worth squat to you. although you could always use him to fill out your tri, and save some money not having to use others who may look as good numbers wise, but you will know that actually this one is better!! he just wants to play with the others. ;) this is how information like this is useful to a bettor. sometimes knowing when a horse will finish second or third is very useful unto itself.

[bisket]

a trifecta with a runner like this would be. 2 or 3 runners in the one spot, and those runners sharing either the 2 or 3 spot with this horse. or 2 or 3 in the 1 spot and this horse singeled in the 2 and the other 2 or 3 in the 3 spot. or you could just play an exacta with this one singeled in the 2 spot and you winner in the 1 spot. play it straight and double the bet amount!!!

[bisket]

numbers tell you who's fast enough, but using these type of things can help with your bets!! the public is rather good at picking the winner, but they don't have a clue allotta times about how to fill a trifecta or exacta out.

[WinterTriangle]

my opinion of this years crop of 3 year old males is quality road is the alpha. he shows all the qualities so to speak.

Hi bisket,

I was thinking about you saying this when I was watching the Gold Cup. I did notice a post or two earlier in this thread before you said that you also said you liked the way SB ran against MTB and Dunkirk.

So, of course, it was in the forefront of my mind, the alpha thing, as I was watching them duel it out in the Gold Cup! :)

I've watched it again a few times, and don't agree with some that QR doesn't "have it". I think they both showed a tremendous amount of determination in that duel.

What are your thoughts about it? Curious!

[Bochall]

I am giving Quality Road one more shot if he can catch a fast track...but where? His name makes me think of that L Buckingham song Holiday Road.....i found out long ago, whooooooooa, its hard to beat that Quality Road.....

[bisket]

Hi bisket,

I was thinking about you saying this when I was watching the Gold Cup. I did notice a post or two earlier in this thread before you said that you also said you liked the way SB ran against MTB and Dunkirk.

So, of course, it was in the forefront of my mind, the alpha thing, as I was watching them duel it out in the Gold Cup! :)

I've watched it again a few times, and don't agree with some that QR doesn't "have it". I think they both showed a tremendous amount of determination in that duel.

What are your thoughts about it? Curious!
quality road is a much faster horse than he showed. he's not happy. if you watch quality when he runs through the straight right after the break in the florida derby he grabs the bit. he never did that saturday. he didn't want to be there. thats the bottom line.
fla derby
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EUi3EBRN8BA

[bisket]

i'm sorry its when they just start going around the first turn. you'll see quality all of sudden stretch his neck, and change the cadance of his stride. he grabbed the bit. he was accepting the challenge. i didn't see this at all saturday.

[bisket]

this is what i think you'll see going forward for quality road. pletcher doesn't want the owner to know the horse just isn't doing as well in his care. he'll take quality to santa anita for the classic. then quality didn't win but had excuses for every race due to the mud and quality not liking poly. or quality will come up with an injury and be retired. pletcher won't dare run this horse on a dry dirt track against any formidable competition right now. it'll be fun to see if i'm right. i'm usually pretty good at knowing pletcher's moves.

[Gold9er]

well i think you have to use speed figures to estimate a horses chances of winning a race. its proven that the higher the class, the higher the speed figure. and a horse will have to run faster to beat a quality field. i dont think you can ever get a horses speed figure exact to how fast he will run today. speed figures are just estimates and other factors have to be considered like

is the horse fit
running style
post position
etc

what i do if figure how much a horse will bounce. but what is strange to me is how sometimes a horse that has been running in higher class will beat a horse that has higher speed figures.

[Show Me the Wire]

.......... but what is strange to me is how sometimes a horse that has been running in higher class will beat a horse that has higher speed figures.

That is because the horse participating in the higher class race has not demonstrated all of its talent. The horse is dominated by the presence of what the horse perceives to be superior and the less dominant horse will not extend itself to its fullest talent.

Additionally, some horses simply do not want to be in front, no matter what. a great example is yesterday's (10/12/09) Race 9 at OSA.

The #3 Raise the River, must be driving Gaines nuts. The horse with the most talent in the field lost again. This horse has the talent to win, but he refuses to do so. He finished 2nd to Grazen and beat M One Rifle on April 25, 2009 has raced competitively against other subsequent winning horses but loses to a Mcl 50K animal with inferior speed numbers, all because Raise the River wants the comfort of the pack.


On paper Raise the River was a lock, but on horse behavior he was a throw out for the win and a great wager for place and show.

This is the art part of handicapping.

[bisket]

well i think you have to use speed figures to estimate a horses chances of winning a race. its proven that the higher the class, the higher the speed figure. and a horse will have to run faster to beat a quality field. i dont think you can ever get a horses speed figure exact to how fast he will run today. speed figures are just estimates and other factors have to be considered like

is the horse fit
running style
post position
etc

what i do if figure how much a horse will bounce. but what is strange to me is how sometimes a horse that has been running in higher class will beat a horse that has higher speed figures.
way back at the beginning of this thread i did say that being able to analyze whether a horse is fast enough is a very important part of any handicapping equation. what i'm trying get across to other handicappers is that this type of behavior on the track sometimes has a significant effect ON speed figures. watching replays of races and looking for clues to a horses behavior in referance to the other horses in a race can sometimes be very helpful in getting some really good plays. as far as 3 year old colts; class plays a signinficant part in my handicapping.

[Show Me the Wire]

way back at the beginning of this thread i did say that being able to analyze whether a horse is fast enough is a very important part of any handicapping equation. what i'm trying get across to other handicappers is that this type of behavior on the track sometimes has a significant effect ON speed figures. watching replays of races and looking for clues to a horses behavior in referance to the other horses in a race can sometimes be very helpful in getting some really good plays. as far as 3 year old colts; class plays a signinficant part in my handicapping.

So what are some of the specific behaviors you believe indicate a horse is not fully exhibiting its talent (effecting speed figs), like the class dropping type referenced by Gold9er or my example?

Concrete examples would better illustrate getting across your belief about behavior on the track having a significant effect on speed figures. BTW I agree with you, so let's further this discussion.

[Bettowin]

AP Indy was a horse that seemed to like to pull up to the leader and run with him until the other horse backed down and AP Indy would pull away. Watch his Santa Anita Derby and his Belmont.

[46zilzal]

So what are some of the specific behaviors you believe indicate a horse is not fully exhibiting its talent (effecting speed figs), like the class dropping type referenced by Gold9er or my example?


Simple..horse runs versus the same pace and keeps getting an earlier and earlier energy distribution: going off form big time as it is taking more early effort with less left in the tank later.

[bisket]

this post is in response to show me the wires question
body language is a huge indication of what's going on. watch the belmont and look how dunkirk intimidates mind that bird in the stretch. watch mind that birds stride and body language as summer bird skoots on by and at the same time dunkirk is in a one on one battle with mtb. is it just a coincidence that mind that bird hasn't raced to the same ability after this race? yes he could have gone off form. he also has a throat problem that gave him breathing issues before the travers, but how does that explain his wva derby? heres the belmont? my uncle who taught me much of what i know about the game always described colts as having their peacock. meaning they feel like like they are kings of the roost or the head of the herd. sometimes when they lose it by another colt intimidating them they're just not the same afterwards for long periods of time. until for some reason or another they get it back. this may mean they are off form to some handicappers, but knowing this before most do is a big help to eliminating what would normally be a contender! heres the belmont
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qnT8hICaiNM&feature=related
its easy to say after mind that bird isn't the same horse after he loses the wva derby and goodwood, but knowing this after the belmont would eliminate a favorite or strong contender both times.
now lets look at quality road
he was feeling his oats in florida last winter and spring, but seems to not be the same.
watch at the beginning of the fla derby
just as they enter the first turn watch as quality road pulls his neck forward and grabs the bit
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EUi3EBRN8BA
pletchers a cry baby.
quality road never does this in the jcgc. on top of that after watching him not want to get in the gate. i'd say this horse is not a happy camper right now, and doesn't want to be on the track!! when the horse is happy he has the chance to feel good about himself!!
trust me pletcher is happy the horse is going to the classic on poly track because he'll have an excuse to give to the owner why the horse ran up the track. if quality were to run on a dry fast track right now against any formidable competition the owner would know that pletcher screwed this one up!!!!
to answer your question its a very subjective thing. other handicappers will say all he's just not in the same form blah blah. well in essence they are right, but knowing these type of things ahead of time pays alot better, and this is how you can get some indications of what's going on ahead of time!!

[bisket]

AP Indy was a horse that seemed to like to pull up to the leader and run with him until the other horse backed down and AP Indy would pull away. Watch his Santa Anita Derby and his Belmont.
just like his daddy

[RXB]

AP Indy's running style was nothing like his daddy's.

[bisket]

AP Indy's running style was nothing like his daddy's.
in that respect it was

[46zilzal]

BODY language is USELESS unless one observes a horse EACH AND EVERY TIME it runs. Many a horse, like Zilzal, washed out EACH time it went to the post. Isolated observation of a horse will, like many sample error observations, serve to confuse not confirm a horse's demeanor.

[bisket]

i was refering to their body language at the time they are in the midst of the race. mtb folded up pretty good at the point in time both dunkirk and summer bird beat him while he was trying his best!!

[bisket]

i guess to really get what i'm refering to you have to know when a horse is trying his best during a race, and when he isn't! lots of times indications of this are by watching the jock and the horse, and having some basic knlowledge of the sport.

[Show Me the Wire]

bisket, I agree. The way a horse reacts to the challenging horse is important. If the challenged horse, while trying to win, does not give any resistence to the challenger the challenged horse will run a sub-par speed figure. Personally, I do not wager on a horse that never held the lead or challenged for the lead in any point of a previous race.

Another, concern is when after the horse strikes the front and then propps (waits for another horse) and loses or wins in a close photo. If they win by a long head or better it is okay to wager on them in the future.

[46zilzal]

i was refering to their body language at the time they are in the midst of the race. mtb folded up pretty good at the point in time both dunkirk and summer bird beat him while he was trying his best!!
I have been standing next to trainers over the years and THEY can't see what you are trying to discover other than a horse being in distress.

Elevation of human attributes to horses continues to amaze me and it always will.

[Show Me the Wire]

I have been standing next to trainers over the years and THEY can't see what you are trying to discover other than a horse being in distress.

Elevation of human attributes to horses continues to amaze me and it always will.

Then you must not know any astute trainers, which really doesn't surprise me.

[bisket]

a handicapper i exchange info with has a similar way of doing things. since 3 year olds are running the 1 1/4mile distance for the first time he cancels any horse that has given up ground in the stretch off his derby list. you would be suprised at the results.

[bisket]

I have been standing next to trainers over the years and THEY can't see what you are trying to discover other than a horse being in distress.

Elevation of human attributes to horses continues to amaze me and it always will.
i think this thread has zipped right over your head, and you have missed what i'm saying.

[46zilzal]

i think this thread has zipped right over your head, and you have missed what i'm saying.
no but as per usual people miss the point of HERD behavior and what happens during a race. The two aren't even close as herd hierarchy takes time and multiple interactions to feedback that position while a race brings together divergent horses for a few minutes.

It would help tremendously if one studies the evolution of herd behavior within a set, established herd before one overlaid that reality onto a wholly TEMPORARY and very UNNATURAL situation of a few minutes race

[46zilzal]

http://naturalcattlehandling.com/herd_behavior.htm

Herd behavior is not distinct to horses and this link suggests how HUMAN interaction actually destroys what is established in the WILD

[Show Me the Wire]

i think this thread has zipped right over your head, and you have missed what i'm saying.


It is still a herd and herd animals still react with herd instincts. Also, races at the same levels fill with many of the same horses, keeping past herd dynamics intact.

Bisket is right, the thread zipped over your head.

[46zilzal]

It is still a herd and herd animals still react with herd instincts. Also, races at the same levels fill with many of the same horses, keeping past herd dynamics intact.

Bisket is right, the thread zipped over your head.
During my senior year as a Zoology student on my way to a bachelor's degree in the same field we had to select a subject for a senior paper in a class called the Natural History of Animals.

One experiment in our lab had totally bombed and I chose that one to try and find out why. It was all about herd behavior. Study after study reiterated the same thing: herd behavior is a NATURAL but PLASTIC hierarchy that is very fragile to human interaction (much akin to the Heisenberg Uncertainty principle where the mere observation of a natural phenomenon CHANGES that phenomenon) and REQUIRES multiple repeated interactions IN THE WILD in order to establish it.

The reason it bombed and the reason I received high marks on my paper was that the experimental situation did not leave the subjects in ISOLATION over enough time so that the multiple and repetitive interactions NECESSARY to establish a pecking order long enough. The conditions of the experiment was changed the next year to allow for the natural establishment of herd instinct.

NOTHING about a race reflects the evolution of natural herd instincts because there is NO TIME and EVERYTHING about a race is UNNATURAL to the animals involved.

[Show Me the Wire]

So Zilly two dogs (pack/herd instincts) that never met before wll not exhibit any herd instincts, when they meet for the first time? Or are dogs different than other herd insinct animals? I do not see much difference as dogs can be domesticated too, like horses. People train dogs and train horses too.

Your input is duly noted for what it is worth? Not much.

However, I am happy to hear about your success regarding the high marks you received on your paper.

BTW how is your broodmare evaluation project coming?

[46zilzal]

So Zilly two dogs (pack/herd instincts) that never met before wll not exhibit any herd instincts, when they meet for the first time? Or are dogs different than other herd instinct animals? I do not see much difference as dogs can be domesticated too, like horses. People train dogs and train horses too.


Dogs are strongly domesticated and have long since lost whatever herd instinct they may have unless they lived as feral animals.

You really need to do some actual reading for a change in order to understand what animal behaviorists have discovered

[46zilzal]

This paper has been kindly reproduced with permission from the Proceedings of the BEVA Specialist Days on Behavior and Nutrition. Ed. P.A.Harris et al. Pub. Equine Veterinary Journal Ltd.

The Natural Horse and Unnatural Behavior

Ruminants tend to be kept for most of their lives in herds and often out at pasture, which may be considered similar to their natural environment. Unlike the dog, another social domesticate, the horse does not live with us as part of our group, and while many horses have the opportunity to socialize to some extent with their own species, many are not kept in their natural state as part of a herd or constantly out at pasture.

[Show Me the Wire]

This paper has been kindly reproduced with permission from the Proceedings of the BEVA Specialist Days on Behavior and Nutrition. Ed. P.A.Harris et al. Pub. Equine Veterinary Journal Ltd.

The Natural Horse and Unnatural Behavior

Ruminants tend to be kept for most of their lives in herds and often out at pasture, which may be considered similar to their natural environment. Unlike the dog, another social domesticate, the horse does not live with us as part of our group, and while many horses have the opportunity to socialize to some extent with their own species, many are not kept in their natural state as part of a herd or constantly out at pasture.

You obviously do not live in a rural or agricultural area. if you believe what you are saying.

Guess what Zilly, even the most strongly domesticated city dwelling dogs will exhibit pack behavior. One will be dominant and one will be submissive. You can't breed out instinct. That is the bottom line. Training, dosmetication, etc, can curtail or encourage certain behaviors, but training can not overcome instinct.

A domesticated stable horse will respond the same way to a rattle snake as its feral cousin.

I have a novel idea why don't you give us some pratical examples, like I did with Gaines' horse, to illustrate your point about herd instincts being non-existent in artifical surroundings like a race.

[46zilzal]

Domesticated horses tend to face greater mental challenges than wild horses, due to living in artificial environments that stifle instinctual behavior while learning tasks that are not natural. you know like running ONLY to their left with a "predator" on their back??

Hanggi, Evelyn B. (2007-04-16). "Understanding horse intelligence". Horsetalk 2007.
Horsetalk. http://www.horsetalk.co.nz/features/horseintelligence-119.shtml. Retrieved 2008-09-16.

[Show Me the Wire]

stifle instinctual behavior while learning tasks that are not natural

Sounds familiar. Hmmm, it is a restatement of my point, "Training, dosmetication, etc, can curtail or encourage certain behaviors, but training can not overcome instinct."


Below is a qoute from your cite.


Researchers have looked at three key areas in trying to assess horse intelligence: the ability of horses to solve increasingly challenging problems, the speed at which they learn a task, and their ability to retain that knowledge.
These can be difficult to measure, with some assessments of intelligence relying upon alertness, a horse's reaction to stimuli, their behaviour around people, and their interaction with other horses.

Great, man can train horses, because horses have the ability to learn. Is the above a great revelation to you?

You really are an odd sort. You post a reference that is neutral to the discussion point believieng the reference is negative proof.

Pony up the pratical examples, not more theoretical examples that do not support your position.

My appologizes to biskit. I hoped to have had a productive discussion regarding horse behavior and its effects on speed figures.

[bisket]

46 i think your making this a little more complicated than it really is.

[46zilzal]

46 i think your making this a little more complicated than it really is.
SIMPLE: HERD behavior DOES NOT HAVE TIME to develop during the short time of a very unnatural RACE.

[Tom]

Yes it does.

[Show Me the Wire]

SIMPLE: HERD behavior DOES NOT HAVE TIME to develop during the short time of a very unnatural RACE.


Let's try this. Is herd behavior learned or instinct or combination of both?

If it only learned you are correct, the learning dynamics are not present.

If it is instinctual, you are incorrect as instinct needs no learning curve.

If it is a combination of both you still are incorrect, because the instinctual behavior part needs no learning curve.

Very simple proposition. Two out of three scenarios disprove your assertion that HERD behavior DOES NOT HAVE TIME to develop during the short time of a very unnatural RACE.

For you to be correct you have to prove all herd behavior is learned through cognitive learning. Good luck.

I know you will post some(s) link that are totally irrelevant, so I apologize to everyone in advance.

[46zilzal]

http://rstb.royalsocietypublishing.org/content/361/1465/5.full
In recent years, the concept of self-organization has been used to understand collective behaviour of animals. The central tenet of self-organization is that simple repeated interactions between individuals can produce complex adaptive patterns at the level of the group.

In all these examples, the individual is submerged as the group takes on a life of its own. The individual units do not have a complete picture of their position in the overall structure and the structure they create has a form that extends well beyond that of the individual units.

Herd behavior takes TIME to develop in ANY group of animals studied.

[46zilzal]

Self-organizing through MULTIPLE.repeated interactions


http://books.google.com/books?hl=en&lr=&id=-XJFTJ6xsYcC&oi=fnd&pg=PA1&dq=related:dcBXcOVy7PsJ:scholar.google.com/&ots=qpoMXNBLXm&sig=ZWdBWRdHhWfGpfhLDrBU4oBgCpE#v=onepage&q=&f=false

[Show Me the Wire]

I wish I could wager on outcomes based on your behavior. I would have a remarkable winning streak. You are so predictable and sadly so am I. Your irrational behavior continues to elicit responses from me, almost like an addiction.

[46zilzal]

Naked Liberty
By Carolyn Resnick

REPEATED in the wild behavior with plasticity of not maintaining set positions but ever changing in an ESTABLISHED herd not a 10 minute one.

[Tom]

We don't bet them in the wild. Maybe you do.

[WinterTriangle]

Bisket, found this really cool video that is the epitome of herding instinct which is interesting to watch.

These were horses stranded on a tiny piece of land in Holland. (The owners got in trouble because they put their horses to graze on a piece of land that was prone to flooding and beyond the dyke protection.) A group of rescue riders go out and rescues them, the horses all just follow the "leaders". I was also amazed how they all huddled together on that little piece of dirt for THREE days.... instinct:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=i6vSvOw-4U4&mode=related&search

[sally]

What a GREAT video Winter!!! Thank you!!

[Show Me the Wire]

Very heart warming. Especially, that man, is knd enough to help aniamls in distress, and understands how to manipulate instincts to benefit the horses.

[bisket]

horsey's always play follow the leader :ThmbUp: . that was really good winter. is it just me or did all those horsey's do the zenyatta dance while they were in the water :D

[bobphilo]

While herding instinct is real, and to think biologically is intelligent, the aforementioned wiring is not a poweful handicapping factor in any situation.

Handicapping is about pace, speed, trip, and form. The danger of instincts come from the gambleing connections trying to fool U.


Fastracehorse, I think you hit on a point that is often missed. True, horses in the wild do have definite herding instincts and behavior based on hierarchies, however this status structure is developed over a lifetime of living with he same herd beginning as foals. We can’t be sure that horses who are meeting for the first time in a field on the track and only spending a couple of minutes together are going to instantly display the same status order.


One could also argue that horses in a race are running fast for the sheer joy of it (also in horses’ genes) and the main testosterone driven behavior is being exhibited by the jockeys, and observers are anthropomorphizing this to the horses.


On the other hand, you also have to take into account the effect of hundreds of years of selective breeding favoring genes for competitiveness. Affirmed is a good example of a purer competitor who ran as fast as he had to win but not much more, which is why neither speed figures nor class could tell the whole story of why he beat Alydar in the TC. In The 3YO preps before the Derby, Alydar was burning up the track and soundly beating his rivals, while Affirmed was much less impressive and appeared to be struggling to beat lesser rivals in the SA Derby. That’s why Alydar was favored over him in the Ky Derby. However there are few Alydars and most horses tend to run to their speed/pace and/or class ratings consistently enough to make these very important handicapping factors.


Again, though, one must be careful to not anthropomorphize the “will to win” to horses, with winning being defined as the horse whose nose is the first to cross an abstract invisible imaginary finish line. Horses don’t think in terms of such abstractions. They are bred to be faster than and enjoy outrunning their rivals. Having them there when it counts is the jockey’s job.


Bob

[bobphilo]

Naked Liberty
By Carolyn Resnick

REPEATED in the wild behavior with plasticity of not maintaining set positions but ever changing in an ESTABLISHED herd not a 10 minute one.

Right 46. If by herding behavior one is refering to the general tendency of horses to run together as a group or herd rather than alone, then Show Me's comments on it being instinctively automatic and unlearned are clearly true. However we are talking about status and how it is expressed by and relates to the running order and finish position of the horses - which is what we are concerned with as handicappers. This takes a good deal of time to establish - far longer than any race, even though it is related to the general herding instinct that is unlearned and automatic.

Bob

[bobphilo]

Very heart warming. Especially, that man, is knd enough to help aniamls in distress, and understands how to manipulate instincts to benefit the horses.

On this we are in total agreement. The instinct to herd and move together as one developed expressily for its survival value. It is a beautiful thing to see man using this to help the horses. Personally, for me, the debate over just what role this plays in handicapping is secondary.

Bob

[Show Me the Wire]

I agree with you too, herding instincts take a secondary role in handicapping. Like any factor it depends on the individual horse. But when it comes into play, it is comforting to throw out a specific heavy favorite with confidence, because you know this particular animal is a victim to its instincts.