TLG's Saratoga ROI

[tribecaagent]

Anyone have a final figure?

[DrugS]

Oh God.

[toetoe]

Can you narrow that down, please ?

Top pick every race on pregame show ?

Top pick on simulcast race by race ?

[ryesteve]

Just a sec, I've got his accountant on hold...

[cj]

Return of $17.64 per $2 wagered.

[toetoe]

"After an exhaustive crunching of the numbers .................................................. .................................................. .................................................. ............................................... HE SUCKS !!!!!!!!!" [:D]

[DeanT]

Return of $17.64 per $2 wagered.

I tabulated and got $16.98. But I am dealing in Canadian dollars.

[Tom]

Those were his Woodbine picks.


Is he on TVG?

[DeanT]

There is video evidence regarding Serling's meet here. ROI must have been pretty huge. Although ever since that FOX special on the aliens at Roswell, I do not believe everything I see on video.


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[toetoe]

Pete Seeger is the King ???? :confused:

[DrugS]

Nice to see Dominic Terry doing well.

Who can ever forget his brilliant 1-for-49 meet at Presque Isle Downs last year?

Much like milk, he comes in 2% ... and that at the early stages of PID '08 .. the home, year, and time of the five horse field.

[toetoe]

Allow me to step on you as gently as I can, to forfend any possible overdose, DrugS. :rolleyes: .

[Light]

Betting top pick to win

364 races

-7.4% ROI

Invest $728 Return $674

Betting top 2 picks to win

354 Races (I missed 1 day)

-16% ROI

Invest $1409 return $1190

Betting top 3 picks in a $1 exacta box

354 Races (I missed 1 day)

-12% ROI

Invest $2036 Return $1786

Data is after scratches. If one of his 4 picks was scratched the others moved up. It worked as much to his advantage as to his disadvantage. I would say scratches helped more than hurt his ROI in all 3 categories.Additionaly,if only 2 of his picks were left after scratches,I only charged him $2 for the exacta box. If only 1 pick was left after scratches,he didn't get charged for an exacta nor for having a 2nd pick.

[the little guy]

Not accurate....but go for it. You missed a day? That's too funny. Which one pray tell?

Or, better yet, get a life.

[Light]

The day I missed was filled in by CJ as far as your win bet return. So that category is accurate. I didn't have your 2nd or 3rd picks that day so cant tell for the other 2 categories but you're probably better off that way.

As far as getting a life,there wasn't much time wasted. I automatically had zeroes filled in all the categories and only adjusted when you hit maybe 2 or 3 races per day. Big deal.

I only undertook this because of the stupidity I kept hearing around here of how you are such a great handicapper. I think this little study proves otherwise,despite whatever dance you want to dance around it.

[cj]

It is inaccurate and didn't account for some scratches and surface changes, but even if it were, that is pretty impressive to me. -7% betting every single race is pretty darn good.

The top two horses thing is pretty weak, very few players would do that. Maybe take highest odds of the two sure, but not blindly bet top two horses.

The exacta thing is pretty good too, but just blindly boxing top 3? Come on...

[Space Monkey]

OK, who is TLG?

[RockHardTen1985]

OK, who is TLG?


Andrew b. Serling

[the little guy]

The day I missed was filled in by CJ as far as your win bet return. So that category is accurate. I didn't have your 2nd or 3rd picks that day so cant tell for the other 2 categories but you're probably better off that way.

As far as getting a life,there wasn't much time wasted. I automatically had zeroes filled in all the categories and only adjusted when you hit maybe 2 or 3 races per day. Big deal.

I only undertook this because of the stupidity I kept hearing around here of how you are such a great handicapper. I think this little study proves otherwise,despite whatever dance you want to dance around it.


Making nasty comments is only a reflection on the sad person that people around here know you to be. The people that paid attention to our show this summer in Saratoga, and year round, know the true story on what kind of information was given. The fact that my ROI was even close to $2.00 at this past Saratoga meet ( it was pennies off if you throw out off-the turf races....and since you don't know what my picks were for those races because you don't watch our shows...I know you're busy.....the least you should do is not include them. I can give you the picks if you want them ) surprises even me. But, I'm sure yours was better. I just can't find your picks.

What is nice for me, and the people I work with, is that we have the pleasure of speaking to real live people ( you know.....ones without the cowardice the internet provides sad souls like yourself ). It's funny how different their behavoir is than yours. Then again, they were also functioning members of society.

[toetoe]

Agreed that playing multiple horses is ridiculous. Why do they make the hosts choose four ( :bang: ) horses ?

Let's give tlg a respite and pick on Crist. :D

[the little guy]

Andrew b. Serling

My cousin posts here?

Who knew. I didn't even know he followed racing.

[toetoe]

A moment of silence for Uncle Rod, please. :( .

[DeanT]

Let's give tlg a respite and pick on Crist. :D

There is another nicompoop. Would you believe that I heard he once took three pick 6's and lost all three of them?! He's a bum :)

[Space Monkey]

tlg?? Andy Serling??? Ummm, The Little Guy?? I like andy. He reminds me of how I used to be before EVERYBODY had replay access. Trip handicapping is fun, and used to be more profitabe than nowadays.

[DrugS]

tlg?? Andy Serling??? Ummm, The Little Guy?? I like andy. He reminds me of how I used to be before EVERYBODY had replay access.

Someone lend me a gun.

[Robert Fischer]

Betting top pick to win

364 races

...



"Howdy, Gimme a Light!" http://img141.imageshack.us/img141/8549/howdygimmealight.jpg

... http://img36.imageshack.us/img36/8945/budlight.jpg



:rolleyes:, Bud Light... http://img27.imageshack.us/img27/96/budlightomg.jpghttp://img36.imageshack.us/i/budlight.jpg

[DrugS]

Betting top 2 picks to win

354 Races (I missed 1 day)

-16% ROI

Invest $1409 return $1190



Who in the hell bets two horses each race - for every race of an entire meet?

[toetoe]

Is that the great Dack Rambo ? Be still my ... uh, heart. :jump: .

[DeanT]

Who in the hell bets two horses each race - for every race of an entire meet?
There was this old lady I met at Bingo that did that. She cashed a lot of tickets and swore it was a killer system. If you lose several in a row she also says you should double your bets.

[Space Monkey]

Someone lend me a gun.[QUOTE]


You mind explaining that drug guy! Send me a PM if you want.

[chickenhead]

does anyone have the ROI for tlgs picks that were also grey? Now THAT would be interesting to me.

[DrugS]

You mind explaining that drug guy! Send me a PM if you want.

No need.

Shooting myself would be less painful than reading this thread.

[Indulto]

It is inaccurate and didn't account for some scratches and surface changes, but even if it were, that is pretty impressive to me. -7% betting every single race is pretty darn good.

The top two horses thing is pretty weak, very few players would do that. Maybe take highest odds of the two sure, but not blindly bet top two horses.

The exacta thing is pretty good too, but just blindly boxing top 3? Come on...I think it was entertaining of light to do his analysis, but I don't think his results were meaningful.

I'd be interested in how the top picks did without scratches or surface changes, and how the pick 4 and pick 3s using the top 3, the top 4 picks, and/or both -- not including sequence of races including a surface change, but subtituting the favorite for scratches.

Seems to me that tlg would be keeping such figures for his own benefit.

[the little guy]

Seems to me that tlg would be keeping such figures for his own benefit.



I don't keep track of any of that stuff. It has nothing to do with what we are trying to do. Some people want picks, so we give them to them, but the show is about talking about the races and trying to convey what we find interesting about the game in general in the hope that some people will be drawn into it in the same way that many of us were.

[Indulto]

I don't keep track of any of that stuff. It has nothing to do with what we are trying to do. Some people want picks, so we give them to them, but the show is about talking about the races and trying to convey what we find interesting about the game in general in the hope that some people will be drawn into it in the same way that many of us were.That works for me, but I'd still be interested in those figures if anybody ELSE were willing to compile them. :lol:

Nicely done tribute to RA, tlg. Any video/pictures of the dunking promo?

[Ian Meyers]

It is inaccurate and didn't account for some scratches and surface changes, but even if it were, that is pretty impressive to me. -7% betting every single race is pretty darn good.

The top two horses thing is pretty weak, very few players would do that. Maybe take highest odds of the two sure, but not blindly bet top two horses.

The exacta thing is pretty good too, but just blindly boxing top 3? Come on...

Yeah, I thought it was very good too. You lost less than 50% of the take playing every selection on top and I guarantee TLG passed on many races he was forced to make selections for.

I had to do this publicly for the TAM meet; it's very tough to pick every race every day.

[Indulto]

Yeah, I thought it was very good too. You lost less than 50% of the take playing every selection on top and I guarantee TLG passed on many races he was forced to make selections for.

I had to do this publicly for the TAM meet; it's very tough to pick every race every day.IM,
Was your top pick consistently in a certain category, e.g., most likely winner (in your estimation), likely best value, longshot with a chance, etc.? Was there any convention as to where you generally placed horses in each category and/or slot?

[Ian Meyers]

IM,
Was your top pick consistently in a certain category, e.g., most likely winner (in your estimation), likely best value, longshot with a chance, etc.? Was there any convention as to where you generally placed horses in each category and/or slot?

Good question. For the most part the top selection was the most likely winner except in what I thought ahead of time were wide open races. In those instances we'd say something like

"Horse X's last was better than it looked and though he might not win we'll key him with Horse A, Horse B and Horse C top and bottom and hope he gets a share."

In races that looked pretty cut and dry I tried not to go crazy trying to come up with a value play. The hard part was seeding horses 1st, 2nd, 3rd or 4th, and I personally didn't always play my top choice. I can recall a grass race where I said four horses looked about equal and the public made one (I think my top choice) 6/5 and 2 of the others were 15-1+. Obviously in betting the race I played the two longshots and not the horse I picked on top (who I believe ran 3rd to the two bombs).

It's really a pretty difficult and for the most part thankless job; you get much more heat when your selections lose than you do credit for successes. I admire people like TLG, Mountainman, etc. that do this day in and day out.

[OTM Al]

I must voice my opinion of the complete lameness of this thread as well as that of those who would choose to spend their time on keeping track of what somebody else is picking. Who cares what Andy picks? (Well, unless it is My Pal Charlie, but that's different) Makes me almost wish this was a TVG bashing thread. At least there is a glimmer of thought involved in those...no that's a lie....

[Tape Reader]

I must voice my opinion of the complete lameness of this thread as well as that of those who would choose to spend their time on keeping track of what somebody else is picking. Who cares what Andy picks? (Well, unless it is My Pal Charlie, but that's different) Makes me almost wish this was a TVG bashing thread. At least there is a glimmer of thought involved in those...no that's a lie....

:ThmbUp: :ThmbUp: :ThmbUp:

[tribecaagent]

Hey Al,

If you think is so lame, why are you participating? Why would you waste your precious time with a response? Thank you for adding zero to this thread.

BTW - who uses a goat as an avatar? THAT'S LAME!

[Zaf]

Andy can pick em. I was there the day Andy said " you have to take a shot on Eltish Star" it was the 1st race Friday , a week before the Alabama, horse paid $55.50. Thank You Andy, that was the bright spot of a very brutal meet pour moi meme.

Z

[the little guy]

Andy can pick em. I was there the day Andy said " you have to take a shot on Eltish Star" it was the 1st race Friday , a week before the Alabama, horse paid $55.50. Thank You Andy, that was the bright spot of a very brutal meet pour moi meme.

Z


I picked him third.....so even though I said over the air I was betting him, Tweeted ( is that a verb? ) that I was betting him, and DID bet him.......it doesn't count. Just ask Light.

[BIG49010]

I wonder what the ROI is without the 2 yr Maiden races, which TLG always coveys that they are a crap shoot at the SPA? I follow along everyday with your coments, I think your one of the best out there.:ThmbUp:

[Fastracehorse]

That was the most incredible video.

fffastt

[Zaf]

I picked him third.....so even though I said over the air I was betting him, Tweeted ( is that a verb? ) that I was betting him, and DID bet him.......it doesn't count. Just ask Light.

Dude , it was incredible, horse broke last , I turned to my buddy and said " horse broke last he's got not shot , I'm f**ked, almost gave up, the freakin hoss swept the whole field wide and won convincingly, with Jean-Luc no less.
You have nothing to prove to these BOZO's here. Most here need to learn the game. Keep Going !

Z

[keilan]

Dude , it was incredible, horse broke last , I turned to my buddy and said " horse broke last he's got not shot , I'm f**ked, almost gave up, the freakin hoss swept the whole field wide and won convincingly, with Jean-Luc no less.
You have nothing to prove to these BOZO's here. Most here need to learn the game. Keep Going !

Z


geez Zaf, I might say something like that but who pissed in your cornflakes this morning? :lol: :lol:

[Light]

Not accurate....but go for it.

I don't keep track of any of that stuff.

How do you know my stats on your picks are inaccurate when you admit you don't keep track of your own picks?

and since you don't know what my picks were for those races because you don't watch our shows...

I dont need to watch your show to know what your picks are. I just copied and pasted them off the NYRA website. I watched the first show and the show with Beyer. Beyer's picks were below par as yours have been. Why should I watch that? Yeah you can talk but if what you're saying is wrong,doesn't do me any good.

Details of your bets attached

[the little guy]

I dont need to watch your show to know what your picks are. I just copied and pasted them off the NYRA website. I watched the first show and the show with Beyer. Beyer's picks were below par as yours have been. Why should I watch that? Yeah you can talk but if what you're saying is wrong,doesn't do me any good.



Mine were below par?

Keep trying to convince yourself.

[Light]

The evidence is all there. I dont know if you can open an Excel file,but there's your proof. You got something else,lets see it.

[eastie]

not that it did me any good, since i went tapioca at Saratoga, but he gave out a ton of winners....at big prices.

[Light]

He also gave out a ton of losers

[DeanT]

I watched Andy's picks for the entire meet, but I only bet the winners. You have to know what to look for.

[Light]

oh

[the little guy]

He also gave out a ton of losers


You're the greatest. This is your funniest post yet ( or at least it dead heats with your post about your net worth ).

[Light]

83 winners 271 losers.

[keilan]

You're the greatest. This is your funniest post yet ( or at least it dead heats with your post about your net worth ).


Andy, leave him alone he's ah ah ah worth a million ;)

[Zaf]

geez Zaf, I might say something like that but who pissed in your cornflakes this morning? :lol: :lol:

Keith,

Just don't like to see one of the Good Guys around here getting bashed.

Keep hitting em hard my friend :)

Z

[keilan]

Keith,

Just don't like to see one of the Good Guys around here getting bashed.

Keep hitting em hard my friend :)

Z


Back at ya bro :ThmbUp:

[Light]

Andy, leave him alone he's ah ah ah worth a million ;)

Doesn't matter how much I'm worth. The question is how much are TLG's picks worth.

[bigmack]

Tweeted ( is that a verb? ) that I was betting him, and DID bet him
I believe it might be Twittered but taking into consideration Kielan's complete confusion of contractions between a simple 'your & you're'...you're a genius.
(insert Canadian dolt logo)

[Tom]

1. Beyer's picks were below par as yours have been.
2. Details of your bets attached

1. What is par?
2. Wow, you with CIA? FBI? You got a file on Andy!

:rolleyes:

[ryesteve]

The question is how much are TLG's picks worth.More than this thread is, at least...

[NTamm1215]

Bringing up how many losses a public handicapper has is one of the stupidest things one could possibly do. It's like saying Albert Pujols is a bad baseball player because he doesn't get a hit 66% of the time.

And for the record, even being at or around $1.85 ROI for Saratoga is an accomplishment.

NT

[Robert Fischer]

The question is how much are TLG's picks worth.

and the answer is that TLG's picks are worth a significant amount, as evidenced by the amount of fans/followers in the online community, and the fact that NYRA pays him among other things to make picks.

The next question is obviously directed to Light, and it is : If you are jealous and seeking attention and attempt to discredit someone, why the **** would you choose something (like the "worth" of his picks) that happens to be a strongsuit with established and evident value? If these poor decisions are typical, you are doomed to being an insignificant annoyance. :bang:

--------
Bringing up how many losses a public handicapper has is one of the stupidest things one could possibly do. It's like saying Albert Pujols is a bad baseball player because he doesn't get a hit 66% of the time.

And for the record, even being at or around $1.85 ROI for Saratoga is an accomplishment.

NT

i don't know about the 1.85ROI thing in general (although it is very good for playing every race as was the case here) , but yes, it should be obvious to anyone with a little bit of logic that criticizing a public handicapper in this way is pretty damn clueless.

[Grits]

Making nasty comments is only a reflection on the sad person that people around here know you to be. The people that paid attention to our show this summer in Saratoga, and year round, know the true story on what kind of information was given. The fact that my ROI was even close to $2.00 at this past Saratoga meet ( it was pennies off if you throw out off-the turf races....and since you don't know what my picks were for those races because you don't watch our shows...I know you're busy.....the least you should do is not include them. I can give you the picks if you want them ) surprises even me. But, I'm sure yours was better. I just can't find your picks.

What is nice for me, and the people I work with, is that we have the pleasure of speaking to real live people ( you know.....ones without the cowardice the internet provides sad souls like yourself ). It's funny how different their behavoir is than yours. Then again, they were also functioning members of society.

Tlg, it is true, those that follow the show, know the quality, know the time and the skill that is involved in producing it each day. Of course, like all things that are group efforts, its only as good as the sum of its parts, you being--part. Not the entire show. As long as TVG has been on air, as long as their hosts, their analysts/handicappers have been knocked in the dirt online, here or elsewhere--and, as long as I've been reading the DRF, none of either organization's (public) handicappers have responded online to argue their skill, or their ROI with pixels. There's beneficial reasoning behind this, I expect. As a professional, and as a spokesperson for NYRA, you may want to question your need to get pulled into and involved with contentiously vehement disagreements such as this one. Online detractors can, and do voice their opinions each day, they can also produce data to back up those opinions--and that's fine. The professional, though, is wise to leave the majority of it unattended.

Whose remarks is one to believe will be noted more closely and remembered? The pixel or the professional?

My money's on the professional.

Unintended incessant rambling on my part? I hope not; only an observation. Choose one's battles more selectively.

[magwell]

Not for nothing. but it would be interesting to see what type of races were profitable and what the figure would be without NY bred races......

[Light]

1. What is par?



Breaking even

[Light]

Bringing up how many losses a public handicapper has is one of the stupidest things one could possibly do. It's like saying Albert Pujols is a bad baseball player because he doesn't get a hit 66% of the time.

I went by ROI which is equivalent to a batting average. If you think TLG is on the level equivalent to Albert Pujols in baseball then show me the stats. Albert has them. You have nothing but a biased opinion. I have nothing against TLG personally. I'm just interested in the facts of his supposedly "great" handicapping.They are not that "great".



And for the record, even being at or around $1.85 ROI for Saratoga is an accomplishment.


You want to settle for that,go for it. I got better things to do with my life than lose 15 cents on every 2 dollars I play with.

[Tom]

Breaking even

I would have guessed that losing about 17% would be par - that is par for the crowd. So losing 7$ is above par.

[NTamm1215]

I went by ROI which is equivalent to a batting average. If you think TLG is on the level equivalent to Albert Pujols in baseball then show me the stats. Albert has them. You have nothing but a biased opinion. I have nothing against TLG personally. I'm just interested in the facts of his supposedly "great" handicapping.They are not that "great".





You want to settle for that,go for it. I got better things to do with my life than lose 15 cents on every 2 dollars I play with.

Actually, if you had followed my picks on capitalotb.com you would have made $0.10 on each $2 you wagered at Saratoga.

NT

[Light]

The next question is obviously directed to Light, and it is : If you are jealous and seeking attention and attempt to discredit someone, why the **** would you choose something (like the "worth" of his picks)



First I am not jealous nor seeking attention. Why would I be jealous of a loser? That goes against human nature. I don't need attention either. It is TLG's defenders who are giving the attention,I'm not seeking it.

Second,as I mentioned many times, it was the noise from his followers that caused me to pay attention to his picks. Is he really that good? If he was,then that would be great. I could throw away the form and just catch a ride on a +20% or so ROI guy. But I dont just blindly jump in the water. I got to know this is real. It's obviously not.

[keilan]

I believe it might be Twittered but taking into consideration Kielan's complete confusion of contractions between a simple 'your & you're'...you're a genius.
(insert Canadian dolt logo)


Hey jingle boy it's keilan with a small k and ei not ie, 6 letters too much for you!! Are you and boxcar related or just the same mother?

[Light]

I would have guessed that losing about 17% would be par - that is par for the crowd. So losing 7$ is above par.

I dont know anyone who cares to live up to a par if it means losing money,even if it is the norm.

I mean can you go home after a day at the races to your wife and say "honey,guess what,I played above par" and she'll say,"great,how much did we win?".Then try to explain your loss with par specs and watch as she leaves the room and slams the door in your face.

[ryesteve]

I got better things to do with my life than lose 15 cents on every 2 dollars I play with.Given this embarassing obsession of yours, I'm surprised to hear this...

[toetoe]

I agree with you, Al, that it's a useless thread, except for purposes of flamboyance and stream-of-consciousness hijacking.Those who would censor (censure ?) you for turning off the lights on the circle-jerk do Andy no favors ... nor even favours.

I'll say, with my West Coast bias showing, that Andy is tons better than Steve Crist, and almost as good as Sam Spear. Anything more specific than that turns everyone into the Human Torch. [bigmack, I don't know how long I can keep throwing video hints out there. :D ]


DeanT,

That was a wonderful bowl of Saratoga Soul Stew. Of course, the bit with the gorilla was pure racism. :rolleyes: . A feat of bigmackian proportions, all in all. :ThmbUp: .

[rokitman]

Even though Little is very often a doosh here, I really enjoyed the Saratoga show, and looked forward to listening to it every day that I could. I found it useful as a thought-provoker, if nothing else, as I don't look to anybody else for my plays. Also, it is very nice to hear people talking enthusiastically and insightfully about the upcoming card. Somebody needs to talk to Little and Eric about the Woody Allen-esque stutter-fest they often have going on but, other than that, it is very professionally done. Except, of course, Little's plays suck. Just kiddin' :cool:

[Robert Fischer]

First I am not jealous nor seeking attention. Why would I be jealous of a loser? That goes against human nature. I don't need attention either. It is TLG's defenders who are giving the attention,I'm not seeking it.

Second,as I mentioned many times, it was the noise from his followers that caused me to pay attention to his picks. Is he really that good? If he was,then that would be great. I could throw away the form and just catch a ride on a +20% or so ROI guy. But I dont just blindly jump in the water. I got to know this is real. It's obviously not.


You really do seem like a jealous attention seeker with a personal agenda.

To Spell out the all to obvious

Your negative opinion about TLG's betting record for all races during the Saratoga meet is absurd to anyone with common sense, and/or! understanding of what picking every race means to ROI.

Your excessive (multiple thread) emphasis on results of TLG's picks completely misses the boat that the guy is one of the better on-air personalities. His job is to be an on-air guy, and he did it well. He hadn't claimed to have a higher ROI than he happened to have, nor did you happen to hire him for picks for the Saratoga meet.

[rjorio]

Let me get this straight. Andy Serling , New York's foremost trip handicapper, can't even pick his nose. Steve Crist, the PK 6 King,does not have a clue. Andy Beyer is below par. This must really be the twilight zone.

[toetoe]

Your negative opinion about TLG's betting record for all races during the Saratoga meet is absurd to anyone with common sense, and/or! understanding of what picking every race means to ROI.

... emphasis on results of TLG's picks ...



His job is to be an on-air guy, and he did it well.



Please read and reread the title of this Flamebroiled Whopper-bound thread.

Andy's job and how well he does it are not being knocked much, even in Light verse.

Bobby Fischer, your last opinion might be fictionalized as
Two Tenses Run Through It.

[badcompany]

Like most, here, I thought Andy did a excellent job with show and definitely added to the great experience that is Saratoga.

My only critique of his capping is that, for some reason, he took a long time to recognize that Linda Rice was having a special meet and that her horses were doing more than what they showed in DRF.

[toetoe]

What about Walter Cronkite and Ernesto Guevara, as long as we're not demanding any published results ?

See, you do a guy a disservice when you say, "It's impossible to beat the take, but he's good, believe you me," or "My bank is considered the best, but in this rotten economy I'm glad I only lost 1% on my savings account."

Please don't blame Light or any other beancounter for taking the bait.

[Robert Fischer]

Please read and reread the title of this Flamebroiled Whopper-bound thread.

The thread title has nothing to do with either of my points. My response was to the post I quoted with my response, not the original poster.



Andy's job and how well he does it are not being knocked much, even in Light verse.
It doesn't mean a damn thing whether Light even mentions TLG's actual job, the only thing that matters in reference to my point is that Light criticised a perfectly fine ROI from a guy who happened to do an above average job on his actual gig.

"Your excessive (multiple thread) emphasis on results of TLG's picks completely misses the boat that the guy is one of the better on-air personalities. His job is to be an on-air guy, and he did it well. He hadn't claimed to have a higher ROI than he happened to have, nor did you happen to hire him for picks for the Saratoga meet."

Bobby Fischer, your last opinion might be fictionalized as
Two Tenses Run Through It.
should be extremely clear now

[Marc At DRF]

Haven't posted here in forever. Just wanted to jump in because it seems like Light is not addressing something that's worth addressing. He claims to have decided to track Andy's Spa picks because Andy was touted as a "great" handicapper by some here, and so he decided that the definition of "great handicapper" is: a longterm positive ROI in one's public picks--crucially--made the morning the races are run, when the handicapper can not see the odds on the board.

By that definition, the world may be simply devoid of ANY great handicappers.
The reason is: you can't see the board, and the winning ROI that one would associate with "greatness" is ridiculously elusive (over the longterm, meaning not just one fluky meet, but month after month, year after year) without the chance to adjust one's selections to the odds at hand.
A few others made mostly vague reference to this in this thread, but it can't be stressed enough, so let's hit it again for Light: If you can't see the board when you make selections, it is a poor metric to judge one's greatness as a handicapper. Andy and a few others offered a particular example here--a horse he picked third in the morning who was going off north of 25-1 in the afternoon. Subsequent to the morning picks, but prior to the race itself, he did what great handicappers do: he adjusted to the reality of the board.

If you didn't watch Andy's commentary on either the Spa morning shows, and perhaps more importantly during the day (when he could see the live odds and adjust his handicapping commentary accordingly), you missed something that was, IMO, great. And if your analytic skills leave you with conclusion that AM picks are a reliable metric to make the pure judgement on whether a handicapper is great or not, well, I can only hope you're making similar sort of judgments as a bettor, because it's nice to have you in the pools.

[Java Gold@TFT]

I haven't jumped into this thread until now but I said when the meet first started that Andy does a great service to the novice and occasional racegoers. He is forced by his duties with NYRA to pick 4 horses for every race of the meet more than 24 hours in advance - no scratches, no track conditions, no off the turf knowledge, jockey changes, shoe changes, etc.. He has no way of knowing how a pace scenario may change with a scratch the next morning. It is the bain of all published public handicappers. I have watched Andy for many years and don't know him at all personally but Ihave said hello. He's a standup guy and puts a lot of time into his job. Being able to beat the takeout under those circumstances is definitely admirable. I am sure he does well for himself at the windows based on his prerace/paddock explainations.

If anyone can show the stats for any public handicapper who showed a positive ROI on top picks over a span of a meet or a year I would like to see it. The last time it happened locally was when Nick Kling had an ROI of about 2.02 over the course of a year at NYRA tracks and that was about 7 years ago. Nick is a damn good handicapper and a very good writer as well as co-hosting a weekly show on Caital OTB. He also posts here sometimes. To have someone with Andy's passion for the sport writing about the same circuit is a blessing.

Good job at the Spa TLG and stop reading this stuff at 11 PM when you have Belmont to do the next day. :)

[Robert Fischer]

If you can't see the board when you make selections, it is a poor metric to judge one's greatness as a handicapper.

exactly.

not to mention passing races...

ROI from AM capping and having to pick a horse in every race is going to be much different from a player's optimal ROI.

[Marc At DRF]

Regarding a single meet or even year where a public handicapper has a $2.02 ROI:

1) Congratulations. Wonderful job.
2) I've never heard of a public handicapper having, say, a 3-yr-period where they have a winning ROI for each of those 3 years. OK, you've got 1 example? 2?

Meanwhile, I personally know of dozens of players (they are rare, and they are either very good or "great") who having winning years at the window, year after year. I'm not necessarily suggesting winning=great, just that the disconnect in frequency between different types of winning ROIs reveals public pick ROIs to be a poor measure of greatness.

[toetoe]

my points. My response ... post I quoted ... my response



the only thing that matters ... my point



Barack Hussein Fischer,

What the hell was I thinking ? This thread is all about chew. (:Slapping forehead.)

[Robert Fischer]

my points. My response ... post I quoted ... my response



the only thing that matters ... my point

Barack Hussein Fischer,

What the hell was I thinking ? This thread is all about chew. (:Slapping forehead.)

never one to let a concept come between manipulating word-usage and grammar...

[toetoe]

Sorry. I knew one combination was out of context, but it was irresistible. :blush: .

[Niko]

Yeah, Saratoga is a pretty easy meet to bet 24 hours in advance every race and make a profit. Small fields, perfect weather, only a couple good jocks and trianers :rolleyes:

-7%, impressive in my book.

Good thing is that Light has accepted the challenge to post his picks 24 hours in advance next year .....

[Fastracehorse]

Even though Little is very often a doosh here, I really enjoyed the Saratoga show, and looked forward to listening to it every day that I could. I found it useful as a thought-provoker, if nothing else, as I don't look to anybody else for my plays. Also, it is very nice to hear people talking enthusiastically and insightfully about the upcoming card. Somebody needs to talk to Little and Eric about the Woody Allen-esque stutter-fest they often have going on but, other than that, it is very professionally done. Except, of course, Little's plays suck. Just kiddin' :cool:

And funny,

fffastt

[Fastracehorse]

Regarding a single meet or even year where a public handicapper has a $2.02 ROI:

1) Congratulations. Wonderful job.
2) I've never heard of a public handicapper having, say, a 3-yr-period where they have a winning ROI for each of those 3 years. OK, you've got 1 example? 2?

Meanwhile, I personally know of dozens of players (they are rare, and they are either very good or "great") who having winning years at the window, year after year. I'm not necessarily suggesting winning=great, just that the disconnect in frequency between different types of winning ROIs reveals public pick ROIs to be a poor measure of greatness.

DRF 'cappers started doing ROI for their picks? Brad Free even wrote an article about how they were going to be held accountable for their choices - they stopped doing ROI real fast..........................

fffastt

[saevena]

This is the only activity/game in life where people say that losing money is "impressive."

[nobeyerspls]

Anyone have a final figure?

Nobody has the final figure from wagers made by a public handicapper in less that person keeps track. I "see" the prerace show all the time but never hear it because the sound is turned down. They do post picks for each race though but that information cannot tell us anything about returns from actual betting.
I handicap a few tracks at 7:00 AM. By post time for the first race several things affecting my play have occured, including scratches and surface change. How I then construct my bets can be different from my original picks.
What if TLG had two winners in a nine race sequence? Did he hit the double with a high priced horse? Did he hit any horizontals with his 3rd choice in the sequence? What about the verticals? In actual wagering he is not restricted to using only three or four entrants. Further, he is likely to pass races with little value. Try an experiment. Pick the winner in entire racecard well before the first race and see how you do. It might be humbling.

[Track Collector]

This is the only activity/game in life where people say that losing money is "impressive."

Welcome to the world of parimutuel horseracing. In a game with high takeouts, one can not simply be better than most of the competition, but rather needs to be in the top 1% (or even higher!) to become a long-term winner who earns their living from this game. This is obviously no easy matter in an age where there is so much information and computer software available to assist one. Being in the top 10-15% is truely an achievement, but it unfortunately means you still lose money long-term. Using a baseball analogy, one who makes level AA and is released after a few years is not seen as a success by the world at large, but in fact, he is already better than ~95% of those whose desire is to play in the major leagues.

[Light]

There is an assumption here that if TLG had access to scratches,
we would see his greatness. That assumption is not necessarily true. There are several times TLG scratched into a win that raised his ROI. Works both ways.

There is an assumption here that if TLG had access to the tote, selective betting would raise his ROI. You dont know that. He picked alot of chalk on top. Yes at times he tries to beat the chalk but not always. Like alot of us he goes with the chalk when he feels it's a lock which doesn't always work out. Of his 83 wins, 62 of them paid under $10. 22 of them paid under even money. He'd have to sit chilly for most of the meet if we believed this crap.

There is the assumption that if TLG would only play the races he liked,his ROI would be higher. That again is not necessarily true. Just because you dont like a race doen't mean you can't pick it. The times I've tried handicapping a race I thought impossible,I've been surprised how I would of had a mega payout and the races I thought I would crush ended up crushing me.Everything is not black and white.

Stop making excuses for the guy. Until I see any or all of these assumptions proved in reality from him, he will always be a hyped handicapper to me. TLG still denies the results I posted of his picks yet says he doesn't keep track of his ROI. That's because losers do not keep track of their ROI,winners do. Losers don't want to know their ROI and I don't blame them.

Why am I not impressed with a -7% ROI? Because a black box can achieve that. Because betting all favorites can come real close to that without handicapping.WTF is so special about that? This guy has one job and that is to handicap one track, gets paid to do it and has all the resources and time and insight to do it and still can't meet his advertised "greatness".

[Red Knave]

Why am I not impressed with a -7% ROI? Because a black box can achieve that.We all look forward to your black box picks next year, or anytime really.

You state that everyone here makes excuses for TLG. Not so. In my opinion you are being unbelievably anal about his results without comparing your own to his.

[Zaf]

[QUOTE=Red Knave]We all look forward to your black box picks next year, or anytime really.

You state that everyone here makes excuses for TLG. Not so. In my opinion you are being unbelievably anal about his results without comparing your own to his.[/QU

Right on Brother !

Dude (Andy) puts in hours of work with formulator / watching replays & is generous enough to share it with us ( lazy cappers ) yet the guy is getting bashed. Andy is the best thing that has ever happened to the NYRA Broadcast ! :jump:

Z :)

[Robert Fischer]

Sorry. I knew one combination was out of context, but it was irresistible. :blush: .
sorry for some of the needless condescension as well.
:ThmbUp::cool:

[OTM Al]

This is still going on?

[Jay Trotter]

I've looked high and low to find Light's posted selections and corresponding ROI with no luck! Please point me in the right direction if I've simply missed them.

Assuming they aren't posted, it would be pretty lame for someone to continually attack a hard working, professional like Mr. Serling! One can only assume that he begrudges Andy's many professional accompishments.

If his problem is more with those who look up to Andy, why not take it up with them, rather than disparage someone who works tirelessly to give his best to the game. It's sad when one needs to knock down others in order to build up themselves.

In fact, the whole ROI issue is a bit of a non-starter when one considers that the actual selection of contenders forms just a portion of player's overall financial success. When one considers the fact that the public handicapper must post early without the benefit of knowing conditions and scratches and does not get to pass the unplayable race it is a huge accomplishment to have a decent ROI.

Also not taken into account is the fact that a sharp player would be betting much more on his prime plays. This simply cannot be accounted for with a straight tracking of daily selections.

At any rate, none of this really matters as Andy has shown himself to be a "somebody" in the game while someone else continues to demonstrate their "smallness"!

I would suggest that the "someone else" crawl back into their hole and enjoy a Beer!





http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_Dm4sFu73cJo/SnGgEdSZofI/AAAAAAAATZc/sklybJmAY5w/s320/bud-light-otter.jpg

[cj]

Why am I not impressed with a -7% ROI? Because a black box can achieve that. Because betting all favorites can come real close to that without handicapping.WTF is so special about that? This guy has one job and that is to handicap one track, gets paid to do it and has all the resources and time and insight to do it and still can't meet his advertised "greatness".

This is complete and utter bullshit. There is no way betting all favorites comes real close to losing 7%. For a guy talking so much, you should know it is much closer to 17%.

[Robert Fischer]

There is an assumption here that if TLG had access to scratches,
we would see his greatness.
While lack of scratch info will hurt you to some degree(a few points) over a course of a meet, it will not dull "greatness" in any situation.
This isn't a logical point.



There is an assumption here that if TLG had access to the tote, selective betting would raise his ROI. You dont know that. He picked alot of chalk on top. Yes at times he tries to beat the chalk but not always. Like alot of us he goes with the chalk when he feels it's a lock which doesn't always work out.
The tote is a major factor, namely an efficient real-time player will pass a race if his selection is underlaid. This really can't be stressed enough. AM deadlines for selections is one of the reasons I haven't been playing in a lot of tournaments(although they are starting to move toward the real-time/live bankroll format that is much more representative) The way that these markets(pools, or odds) work is that the FAVORITE is actually the most volatile entry in terms of the betting market! The fact that TLG uses "chalk" does not support your point in this example.
-->perspective/
I swear I am trying to be unbiased here - and you probably have me improperly labled as a TLG fanboy. Actually I admire the good job he does as an on classy on air guy, and I like the trips/traps show, but I have disagreed with him about many opinions. He is pretty good, and I judge him(and all of you guys!) for the reasoning behind his opinions more so than whether your number happened to win the race. Serling has also once in a while said something subtle that contained a little wisdom. My ego is a problem, but the only handicapper who I bet is myself, and I'm not really high up on any of u guys including TLG, but he has insight, and tends to have relevant opinions.
I want to be fair to you Light, so I have to mention that yes, to what degree not knowing the pool information will hurt a player, is going to vary from player to player, and some players will not be greatly affected.



Stop making excuses for the guy. Until I see any or all of these assumptions proved in reality from him, he will always be a hyped handicapper to me.
...
Why am I not impressed with a -7% ROI? Because a black box can achieve that. Because betting all favorites can come real close to that without handicapping.WTF is so special about that?

Let me be blunt.
ROI that falls anywhere in the normal range is not a useful way to evaluate the skill of a public handicapper.
Extremely high or low ROI makes a point in it's own right, but anywhere in the normal range is basically meaningless. A horseplayer must have these two skills: Accurate Insight into the sport, and Wagering Skill. The phrase "Accurate Insight" is a synonym for handicapping. A public handicapper must forfeit "Wagering Skill". Like it or not, a mastery of Wagering Skill includes determining value based on not only your insight but the Tote Information. The Scratches / Changes must be factored. The player MUST demand a certain level of value or he MUST pass the race. As the PUBLIC HANDICAPPER has forfeited a true mastery of Wagering Skill by definition of his job requirements, it becomes so clear that ROI is not a useful way of evaluating him. Please be mature enough to consider these points that I have taken the time to write out thoroughly. This is the whole fallacy with this whole concept - ROI is the wrong information :bang: !

With Serling first and foremost he was on the broadcasts and to a lesser degree he has some youtube videos up as well.

The way to evaluate a public handicapper:

YOU MUST HAVE INSIGHT (YOU THE EVALUATOR)
LISTEN FOR THE REASONING BEHIND THE PH'S OPINION
INVESTIGATE THAT REASONING
NOTE FAVORITES HE OPPOSES WHO ACTUALLY RUN POORLY
NOTE LONGSHOTS HE SUPPORTS WHO ACTUALLY RUN WELL
NOTE BULLSHITTING / BLUFFING AND FALLACIES
NOTE THE SEEMINGLY WIDE OPEN PUZZLES WHERE HE HAS A STRONG ACCURATE OPINION.
JUST LISTEN AND EVALUATE
This is the only way you can evaluate a public handicapper, otherwise it doesn't mean a damn thing.

[Light]

As far as my accomplishments,its irrelevant. I am not a public handicapper nor are my picks(when I post them) implied to be bet. If you'd like to know,just so you dont assume I'm totally ignorant,I dont think anyone has won more in handicapping prizes on this board than me. I've won books, bobbleheads,T shirts and cash from this site,not to mention winning a 4 month NYRA pk4 contest with no prizes. There. Impressed? But I dont give a hoot about my accomplishments here, OK. This has nothing to do with me.

It's fine that you guys think Andy is a great person,or that he works hard at his job or that he is great for NYRA. I am not attacking that and have nothing against him personally. And I have nothing against losing and losers. Its expected in this game. I have nothing but sympathy for losers.But to be praised for a losing season with excuse after excuse from your fans is pathetic. He should stand up like a man an admit he had a losing meet at Saratoga. It's nothing to be ashamed of instead of letting this farce continue.Harvey would never let him get away with this crap.

He is by far not the best handicapper I have seen on this board. There are several that I have seen on this board that would make him look like a toadstool. So he has a microphone,a mouth and is hired by NYRA. Give that to some others on this and other boards and watch. They will dwarf him with their insight and their picks. He is simply a human being that is glamorized for being in the spotlight. Other than that,he has not demonstrated a winning meet. When he does have a winning meet,wake me up. :sleeping:

[badcompany]

I've looked high and low to find Light's posted selections and corresponding ROI with no luck! Please point me in the right direction if I've simply missed them.


I didn't have any luck, either, but I did find the Bobblehead he won:

http://blog.timesunion.com/horseracing/files/2008/06/bobble.jpg

[Steve 'StatMan']

I didn't have any luck, either, but I did find the Bobblehead he won:

http://blog.timesunion.com/horseracing/files/2008/06/bobble.jpg

Ah, but would he still have won that Bobblehead if he had to make his contest selections 24+ hours in advance?

I got an Early Fires and Bonnie The Bugler Bobbleheads just for entering contests at AP in the past.

[docicu3]

You can't bet (or force an opinion) on every race of a NY card day in and day out and expect to make money. Andy has come a long way these last couple years and should be applauded for it. The number and value of LS's he gave out during Saratoga this summer was at times simply brilliant. If you listen to what he says...."It's not about picking the most winners it's about finding value" you'll see the method to his madness. Sometimes I wish he would tell the public how many races he passes on a card but NYRA would frown.

The only public capper who rivals the guy is Byk and I challenge anyone to match his run of the last 3 years with multi race results.

[Tom]

Somebody turn out this light!
He STILL has no clue what this thread was all about , and judging from his post, he never will. This guy like to hear himself type.

[ryesteve]

Somebody turn out this light!No! If this thread had been locked when it should have been, we never would've gotten the best quote ever: "Just so you don't assume I'm totally ignorant, I've won bobbleheads!"

I think PA should force him to use that as a sig line...

[cj]

As far as my accomplishments,its irrelevant. I am not a public handicapper nor are my picks(when I post them) implied to be bet. If you'd like to know,just so you dont assume I'm totally ignorant,I dont think anyone has won more in handicapping prizes on this board than me. I've won books, bobbleheads,T shirts and cash from this site,not to mention winning a 4 month NYRA pk4 contest with no prizes. There. Impressed? But I dont give a hoot about my accomplishments here, OK. This has nothing to do with me.

...

I assume you realize your statement about betting all favorites coming real close to losing 7% is ridiculous since you didn't respond.

[Steve 'StatMan']

I can imagine it now:

<TV Video & music graphic for the "6th Race Preview with Black Box Bob">

Black Box Bob: "In the 6th race today, I like the 7, 2, 1 and 5. I don't know or care about the distance, surface, horse's trips, jockeys or trainers. My Black Box just said 7, 2, 1 and 5. That's all I need to know. And now you know.

We'll see you later before the 7th Race. I'm Black Box Bob."

<video of the post parade>

[the little guy]

This has nothing to do with me.



You could have fooled me ( and everyone else here ).

[illinoisbred]

Who wants a race analyst giving out a lot of winners? Not me.

[cmoore]

I agree 100% Light...

62 of 83 wins paid under 10 bucks..22 paid under even money. Now that's just BRILLIANT!!!!!:rolleyes:

There is an assumption here that if TLG had access to scratches,
we would see his greatness. That assumption is not necessarily true. There are several times TLG scratched into a win that raised his ROI. Works both ways.

There is an assumption here that if TLG had access to the tote, selective betting would raise his ROI. You dont know that. He picked alot of chalk on top. Yes at times he tries to beat the chalk but not always. Like alot of us he goes with the chalk when he feels it's a lock which doesn't always work out. Of his 83 wins, 62 of them paid under $10. 22 of them paid under even money. He'd have to sit chilly for most of the meet if we believed this crap.

There is the assumption that if TLG would only play the races he liked,his ROI would be higher. That again is not necessarily true. Just because you dont like a race doen't mean you can't pick it. The times I've tried handicapping a race I thought impossible,I've been surprised how I would of had a mega payout and the races I thought I would crush ended up crushing me.Everything is not black and white.

Stop making excuses for the guy. Until I see any or all of these assumptions proved in reality from him, he will always be a hyped handicapper to me. TLG still denies the results I posted of his picks yet says he doesn't keep track of his ROI. That's because losers do not keep track of their ROI,winners do. Losers don't want to know their ROI and I don't blame them.

Why am I not impressed with a -7% ROI? Because a black box can achieve that. Because betting all favorites can come real close to that without handicapping.WTF is so special about that? This guy has one job and that is to handicap one track, gets paid to do it and has all the resources and time and insight to do it and still can't meet his advertised "greatness".

[Light]

If you must know about the precious bobblehead, it was a Jerry Bailey bobblehead I recieved in the PA downs contest in which I also recieved $75 cash for my final standing. I should have won the grand prize because my final bet was a 20-1 ML Mnr invader that got bet down to 2-1. Guess what. We're all in TLG's shoes, OK? Or I should say he is in our shoes. He's not the only guy who gets a bum rap with the tote or scratches.

BTW,I dont get this thing about how TLG doesn't have the scratches when he handicaps.His show is on AFTER the NYRA scratches are posted. He only doesn't have scratches like the rest of us,from very late scratches or changes so stop babying him. He's a big boy now.

I'd like to ask all those who says TLG helps them, to demonstrate that BEFORE a race. Tell us how TLG's analysis is helping you pick the race. Then pick the race and we'll be the judge of the fruits of watching TLG. The times I've watched him and I have a horse I really like,he doesn't even mention him,like the TVG dudes who are often oblivious. And its not like some real longshot. So his analysis itself is lacking.

I assume you realize your statement about betting all favorites coming real close to losing 7% is ridiculous since you didn't respond.

I didn't think it required a response but if you insist. I would consider losing 7% with handicapping to losing 17% (betting favorites) without handicapping to be pretty equivalent. Add some handicapping to the side betting the favs like throwing out real obvious false favorites and you'll probably be real close.

[toetoe]

unbelievably anal

Hey, that's my favorite film. :jump: .

[Jay Trotter]

Light, I don't believe any of us are intimating that "we are all that and a bag of chips too" when it comes to handicapping. What raises concern is your continual bashing without putting up!

So, why don't you show us what you have and post your plays in a similar fashion to the way TLG must operate -- posting early, adjusting live and playing every race. We'll even let you keep score since you like it so much!

Start with Wednesday's card. Time to put up or shut up!


ps. I once won a mini-putt tournament but when I showed up to take on Nicklaus I was laughed at! I still don't understand why! :rolleyes:





I'd like to ask all those who says TLG helps them, to demonstrate that BEFORE a race. Tell us how TLG's analysis is helping you pick the race. Then pick the race and we'll be the judge of the fruits of watching TLG. The times I've watched him and I have a horse I really like,he doesn't even mention him,like the TVG dudes who are often oblivious. And its not like some real longshot. So his analysis itself is lacking.

[toetoe]

I agree 100% Light...

62 of 83 wins paid under 10 bucks..22 paid under even money. Now that's just BRILLIANT!!!!!:rolleyes:

I originally thought that this was defective math, but don't forget --- these are overlapping fields. The odds-on are 22 of the 62.

[toetoe]

Light, I don't believe any of us are intimating that "we are all that and a bag of chips too" when it comes to handicapping. What raises concern is your continual bashing without putting up!

Light has no obligation to prove his handicapping acumen. His bashing is less nauseous than all the cyber-bobblehead for Andy, which does him no favors.

You are indeed intimating that Andy is "all that," and Light is rebutting that view.

For the umpteenth time, I advise you to blame the thread starter.

[the little guy]

What the sad cyber-bashers don't understand, or refuse to understand, is that what we are doing at NYRA is discussing races in a manner which hopefully stimulates interest in these races. Because the cyber-bashers refuse to listen to our show, and are fixated on the 1-2-3 picks, they miss this, and sadly miss out on what we are actually offering. But, if it makes them feel better about their own lives, then we are also performing a positive function as well.

Of course the top picks lean towards the favorites....they are usually a reflection of " most likely winner " types and frequently not the horse a bettor focuses on in single race play to make money. Anyone that listens to the shows realizes this and perhaps that is why we have such a positive following. But, once again, if it makes a few here happier to miss the point ( and opportunity ) then once again we are succeeding in our hopes of making everyone's racing experience a positive one.

It's all good. The second best thing to being loved, at least in this situation, is being hated.

[Light]

JT

I've already mentioned twice that I have proved myself on this board more than anyone else on this board.The proof is all here. Go to the PA downs contest link and you'll see I made something around 100% ROI. Go to the Riders up threads and you can see what I did. I will be playing the next Aqu Pk4 contest when the Aqu inner meet starts in December for 4 months as I have done in the past. I have proved myself over and over. I mainly do it for myself,not for anyone else.But this is irrelevant. I am not a public handicapper nor do I get paid for my picks. Its just that I have higher standards for myself and anyone purported to be an "expert".

So I watched the show this morning just to see again what is so great from TLG's analysis and got absolutely nothing. They had all the scratches. This is what I got from him watching the show. I took notes.

1) "I dont have a great opinion"
2) There are too many scratches
3) "Its a guessing game"
4) Likes #4,Embrace. Not sure why he likes him,didn't say.
5) I couldn't tell if there even was an opinion here.
6) Thinks its a 2 horse race #4 or #6. Why? I have no idea.
7) Sort of likes the 3. Why I didn't get
8) Really likes the 1A. 6/5 favorite. WOW. Finally an opinion,but come on,Chalklate man. Tell me something the ML guy doesnt know.
9) Says "you could use a bunch of horses". Thanks Andy. That really clears it up.
10) No opinion given for his pick nor did he even mention the horse's name. Just knocked Donovan's longshot pick.

How in the world this lame analysis benefits anyone is beyond me.

[Space Monkey]

1) "I dont have a great opinion"
2) There are too many scratches
3) "Its a guessing game"
4) Likes #4,Embrace. Not sure why he likes him,didn't say.
5) I couldn't tell if there even was an opinion here.
6) Thinks its a 2 horse race #4 or #6. Why? I have no idea.
7) Sort of likes the 3. Why I didn't get
8) Really likes the 1A. 6/5 favorite. WOW. Finally an opinion,but come on,Chalklate man. Tell me something the ML guy doesnt know.
9) Says "you could use a bunch of horses". Thanks Andy. That really clears it up.
10) No opinion given for his pick nor did he even mention the horse's name. Just knocked Donovan's longshot pick.

Sounds a lot like my critique of the races I was looking to play today. :lol:
I don't tune into the prerace shows to get winners. I do it just to hear maybe that 1 opinion on 1 horse that might make my day. It might not even be ahorse they pick. Andy is a lot like I used to be, a trip handicapper, but back when it was more profitable, less obvious. Back then you used to have to fire up the VCR, tape the NYRA show and replay every race back to spot the trips. Now its all done for you. Andy will give me that 1 horse from time to time. I could care less about his ROI. Hes got an impossible job trying to appease people who are just looking for easy winners to be given to them.

If anybody here hasn't tuned into Arlington's show with Jim Dooley and Jessica Pacheco, do yourself a favor and watch it. Jessica is sometimes hilarious without tyring to be. She'll hold up her paper and twitch her lip, tilt her head as shes trying to figure out who to pick. It seems like shes winging it most of the time. I get a kick out of her, and it has nothing to do with the fact that shes hot, so don't go there :lol:

[the little guy]

So I watched the show this morning just to see again what is so great from TLG's analysis and got absolutely nothing. They had all the scratches. This is what I got from him watching the show. I took notes.

1) "I dont have a great opinion"
2) There are too many scratches
3) "Its a guessing game"
4) Likes #4,Embrace. Not sure why he likes him,didn't say.
5) I couldn't tell if there even was an opinion here.
6) Thinks its a 2 horse race #4 or #6. Why? I have no idea.
7) Sort of likes the 3. Why I didn't get
8) Really likes the 1A. 6/5 favorite. WOW. Finally an opinion,but come on,Chalklate man. Tell me something the ML guy doesnt know.
9) Says "you could use a bunch of horses". Thanks Andy. That really clears it up.
10) No opinion given for his pick nor did he even mention the horse's name. Just knocked Donovan's longshot pick.

How in the world this lame analysis benefits anyone is beyond me.

I realize you have an incessant need to point out how miserable you are in life, but I will offer some truth to your lies....

1 ) We both picked the same horse, who was a short price when we did the show, thus I'm not sure how much should be said but it was made clear that he was dropping into an appropriate spot after being in one wrong one after another since his prior win. I said on the pre-race prattle ( when his odds had drifted to 9:2 ) that I was betting him and I also " tweeted " that he was the right horse. he paid $13.

2 ) Obviously it was a race destroyed by scratches and not particularly interesting from a betting standpoint. During the pre-race prattle, when we could see the odds, I stressed that the 2 entry was wildly overbet, and while the 1 was the likeliest winner ( he won ) the 7 ( who finished a close second ) was the value play.

3 ) It's a field of five firsters. I'm glad I was able to further your handicapping knowledge by explaining that two hours before post time it was a " guessing game. "

4 ) As opposed to your flat out lie, I made it clear why I liked my selection and showed the replay of her debut to further my point. I also explained specifically why I was against the Dutrow first time starter ( it was a subtle breeding concept that apparently flew over your head ).

5 ) I made it clear who I liked and showed a replay to bolster my opinion. That fact that you " couldn't tell if there even was an opinion here " speaks volumes about you and not me.

6 ) It's fairly obvious on paper why it's a two horse race on paper. We try not to belabor the obvious when one of us likes the two favorites out of respect to our audience. There is a limited amount of time for the show and we try hard to apportion our time as best as possible. We showed two replays to discuss other horses in the race to broaden the discussion. If anything, we spent too much time on this race.

7 ) I didn't do a great job of discussing my selection, I agree, but the conversation took a different direction. We pointed out, with replays, two horses that we ( one each ) thought had less than good trips in their prior starts. Maybe not a perfect job but once again we tried to fit in as much information as the limited time allowed. How much should I have used to expound on why I like the second choice?

8 ) Now you criticize me for doing what you previously criticized me for not doing. I get it.....and so does everyone else.

9 ) You used my short final comment to summarize a discussion which included detailed replay work from the Sword Dancer. Once again.....I get it. The plusses and minuses of the logical horses were discussed as best as possible in the time allowed.

10 ) I did no such thing as criticizing Eric's pick. What I did was make fun of myself for picking the obvious favorites, and made it clear that the few seconds we had left were much better spent letting Eric discuss his longshot idea.

But, this has nothing to do with you.

[rjorio]

IT WOULD SEEM THE LIGHT IS QUITE DIM.

[Light]

TLG

Part of my attitude while watching your show was to try to put myself in the shoes of those here who claim to have the skill of filtering out who you really like and who you are chilly on. Alot in your defense says, you wouldn't bet every race and only if I watched the show would I be able to figure out who you really liked. The only race it looked like to me that you really liked something was the 6th where you say its a 2 horse race and the 8th,the big chalk. Otherwise I didn't get the feeling you liked much. Plus if I was going to selectively bet horses based on your opinion,I certainly would not bet them if you make disparaging comments about the race even if you covered some info on your pick(s) such as in the 9th where you said "you could use a bunch of horses". That implies you think the race is wide open.Why should I care about what you just said about your picks. You just nailed your opinion about the race. Certainly I couldn't take your top recommendations when you dont even mention their names like in the 7th and 10th. I realize time is a big factor in your presentation,but thats all the more reason to be consise and to the point rather than wishy washy or not commenting on your own pick.When you ignore your top pick it sends the message to me that you don't really care about him that much. If someone really likes a horse,they are usually enthused and expressive about it and I didn't get that in most of your picks so these people who seem to know which of your picks to bet are obviously deluded because I didnt get the impression you even knew who you really liked.

[toetoe]

Andy,

You don't need blind adulation. You want tough love, right ? Otherwise, you're just President Obama.

If you really insist on fawning praise, I will arrange for Stevie Wonder to adapt his brilliant number, based on "Do re mi ...," using the following lyrics:

A-a-a-andy SERLING. A-A-A-andy Serling..

And don't worry --- we'll tell Stevie you're black ... er, of color ... well, whatever.

[the little guy]

Andy,

You don't need blind adulation. You want tough love, right ? Otherwise, you're just President Obama.

If you really insist on fawning praise, I will arrange for Stevie Wonder to adapt his brilliant number, based on "Do re mi ...," using the following lyrics:

A-a-a-andy SERLING. A-A-A-andy Serling..

And don't worry --- we'll tell Stevie you're black ... er, of color ... well, whatever.


You're better than this. As you well know I am more than happy to listen to constructive criticism ( as I have proven on this site in the past ). That, however, is not even close to what is going on here. Believe me, I take it for what it's worth. When you are lumped in with people like Steve Crist and Andy Beyer it is impossible not to be extraordinarily complimented. It's kind of like saying someone is as ugly as Gisele Bundchen.

You can't please all of the people all of the time. I will continue to work hard to do the best job I can.

[Space Monkey]

TLG, I tried to change the tone of this thread, but to no avail. I mean nobody would even bite on my Hot Jessica Pacheco reference :confused: To judge a public handicapper on his ROI for the whole meet, when hes picking every race, is just nonsense. Keep doing what you're doing. I enjoy watching you. One bit of unsolicited advice. Don't waste your time on threads like this. I'm sure you've got better things to do.

[illinoisbred]

TLG, I tried to change the tone of this thread, but to no avail. I mean nobody would even bite on my Hot Jessica Pacheco reference :confused: To judge a public handicapper on his ROI for the whole meet, when hes picking every race, is just nonsense. Keep doing what you're doing. I enjoy watching you. One bit of unsolicited advice. Don't waste your time on threads like this. I'm sure you've got better things to do.
J.P. is easy on the eyes.I see her throughout the day as I go back and forth between here and Twinspires.Soon it's sayanora for her until Fair Grounds opens.As far as TLGis concerned;whenever I view NY racing Ifind his remarks pretty much on the mark.

[cmoore]

TLG, I tried to change the tone of this thread, but to no avail. I mean nobody would even bite on my Hot Jessica Pacheco reference :confused: To judge a public handicapper on his ROI for the whole meet, when hes picking every race, is just nonsense. Keep doing what you're doing. I enjoy watching you. One bit of unsolicited advice. Don't waste your time on threads like this. I'm sure you've got better things to do.

But many here seem to be able to pick out want picks mean more then others. It's ridiculous for one to make such claims when 63 of his 82 winners paid 10 bucks or less..As Light posted earlier about todays show..Not much commitment or reasons why he liked a particular horse.. This game is about finding value..One who makes picks everyday for a particlualr track should have a better idea on who is going to be bet down and who isn't.

One more thing..Jessica Pacheco does commit to more longshots then TLG from what I've seen. I give her credit for this. That's the only way this game can be beaten in the long run.

[toetoe]

Andy,

Sorry if it sounded callous, but I was just hammering away at the futility of the direction of this thread and others like it.

I admire you, and I defend your right to be snippy ... sometimes :rolleyes: :D .

The funny thing is that Light is a very sweet person, although I contend that a hundred Ridersup Contest titles in the world won't make someone a winning player in the real world.

Also, I happen to know that Light is house rich, and he is wealthy by my standards.

[Space Monkey]

Funny thing Cmoore, from what I've seen JP is a s chalky as they get. Now, I'll admit I have a hit and miss sample like I suspect you do. . I started following TLG's Twitter page and it seemed like he started off not so good. But then again the first 2 weeks of a meet are the toughest. Then he hit a $30 horse and then another good price one, so who knows. I'll go back to my previous comment, don't expect too much from these people. Watch their show and try to pick up on that 1 or 2 horses that might make your day.

[Indulto]

First of all, my only exposure to tlg’s “picks” are his DRF stakes race analyses in which he comes across as entertaining, and very knowledgeable in the use of utilizing DRF data which now includes video.

I see no reason not to accept his description of his work at NYRA as primarily to get people interested in handicapping and betting races as opposed to picking winners for them.

It may not be in NYRA’s interest to track their employees' selections, but it’s certainly in ours to build evidence that takeout is too high and, possibly that the type of races carded and field size are having a negative impact on handle as well.

And why limit the focus to tlg? Why not Grening, Kling, and other public selectors as well?

OA,
This thread continues on because of a concept NYRA needs to be encourged to embrace -- Give the customers what they want!

Maybe tlg’s show could use an infusion of fresh (hot?) talent with a guest co-host based on a promoted competition among individuals submitting their selections daily for the previous two weeks.

[JustRalph]

I have other ideas as to why Light has a Problem with Andy.....and they have nothing to do with Horse racing............... :ThmbDown: to light and his antics.........

[cmoore]

I have other ideas as to why Light has a Problem with Andy.....and they have nothing to do with Horse racing............... :ThmbDown: to light and his antics.........

What antics??? He states the obvious and everyone comes up with excuses. If one wants to succeed at this game. You have to do the work yourself. A trip handicapper on some show won't get anyone to the promise land..So you all need to stop kidding yourselves..

[cj]

What antics??? He states the obvious and everyone comes up with excuses. If one wants to succeed at this game. You have to do the work yourself. A trip handicapper on some show won't get anyone to the promise land..So you all need to stop kidding yourselves..

It isn't obvious. The guy tried to state that betting every favorite would get you very close to losing only 7%, then says 17% is very close as an example. He is completely irrational about guys like Beyer, Crist and Serling. He comes across as clueless, or just on a crusade against those in the public eye. You can almost see him pacing around his mom's basement waiting for each post in this thread. I think he is losing it.

[toetoe]

You can almost see him pacing around his mom's basement waiting for each post in this thread. I think he is losing it.

Hey, that's MY m.o., Bub. Got it ? (:Jabbing own chest with thumb.)

[Light]

CJ

I already addresed that point. In other words,if I was a public handicapper,what difference would it be if I was a -7% public handicapper or a -17% public handicapper. A loser is a loser. Just do a Mr B. Pick the chalk. Simple. Less work, less stress.Get more time with the wife and kids. When I made a little study of the TVG dudes, I found Mr. B. to be the best in ROI among all the TVG dudes. Pretty much break even. He stays the course too. I think Mr. B does some adjusting to his chalk picking and thats what I was talking about to raise that ROI from -17% to -7% or better.

People on this board say they dont listen to TLG for his ROI anyrate. Yeah right. As soon as he hits something they go nuts. Then when I present them with all the losers he's had,they revert back to the "I only listen to him for information" excuse.

And no I dont live in my moms basement. I live in a million dollar home with a wife 2 kids and 5 cars. Thanks for asking.

[cj]

CJ
And no I dont live in my moms basement. I live in a million dollar home with a wife 2 kids and 5 cars. Thanks for asking.

Perhaps you could purchase a sense of humor then.

[Grits]

And no I dont live in my moms basement. I live in a million dollar home with a wife 2 kids and 5 cars. Thanks for asking.

Light, CJ didn't ask you anything, so no thank you is needed there. You're just bellowing again. I had patience with you. I was trying, but this stuff has become laughable. And you're the only one not getting it.

I've not ever encountered anyone who, a few short days ago, boasted of having a net worth of a little over a million, then reveals to the reading public he lives in a million dollar home and drives five cars.

You got a whole lot more to be concerned about than TLG's ROI. Hopefully you'll keep winning handicapping contests and racking up those bobblehead dolls because being worth only a little over a million, ain't saying a great deal, when you're trying to lower the debt service on another million, along with the contents of a five car garage.

None of this is our business, but you're the one stating these things--don't you even have an inward clue indicating--as to HOW this stuff you are writing reads?

You are the only person, here, who is fixated on this man's handicapping while having been told, repeatedly, what is involved in the job. With each added post you are trying to elevate your own condition, and its not working, Light. Its backfiring on you, and miserably so.

[keilan]

Okay already will someone tell this oversensitive, under appreciated, paranoid …… that he is the best handicapper to ever grace PA’s site. Each post of every thread he’s screaming for the long over due recognition and attention that has alluded him and been mistakenly bestowed on one Andy Sterling.

Hey guys, Light is the big man, not Andy. How many contests has Andy ever won here, how many bobble heads sit on Andy's mantle? Does Andy even own a home, I bet he takes public transportation to boot.

Okay Light you worn me down, you’re the best. Now please stop this madness for your kids sake if nothing else.

[PaceAdvantage]

Perhaps you could purchase a sense of humor then.This one made this whole mess of a thread worthwhile....I actually laughed! :lol: