Poll on "Synthetic Surfaces"

[LottaKash]

There is a "never-ending" thread about "Synthetic-Surfaces" that is still in circulation and holding it's own.... And, it makes for quite an interesting, insightful, and controversial discussion...

But personally, I am very curious about how one would vote if pinned down to just a one way, one line opinion about that surface....A summary, if you will..

That is the reason (a summary), that I am doing this...Please stand up and be counted...:jump:

best,

[andymays]

There is a "never-ending" thread about "Synthetic-Surfaces" that is still in circulation and holding it's own.... And, it makes for quite an interesting, insightful, and controversial discussion...

But personally, I am very curious about how one would vote if pinned down to just a one way, one line opinion about that surface....A summary, if you will..

That is the reason (a summary), that I am doing this...Please stand up and be counted...:jump:

best,


CJ did one a while ago and nearly 3 out of 4 Horseplayers don't like them and a majority of those want them removed immediately in areas with good weather like Del Mar!

[LottaKash]

CJ did one a while ago and nearly 3 out of 4 Horseplayers don't like them and a majority of those want them removed immediately in areas with good weather like Del Mar!

I thought as much, but perhaps a more recent update wouldn't hurt any ?

best,

[cj]

I thought as much, but perhaps a more recent update wouldn't hurt any ?

best,

More recent? It was two weeks ago. :)

[andymays]

I thought as much, but perhaps a more recent update wouldn't hurt any ?

best,


You forgot one category or question.

I hate synthetic surfaces but because they are on my Home Tracks and I've been playing them forever, sometimes I play them anyway. In other words I'm an idiot (speaking for myself)! :)

[LottaKash]

You forgot one category or question.

I hate synthetic surfaces but because they are on my Home Tracks and I've been playing them forever, sometimes I play them anyway. In other words I'm an idiot (speaking for myself)! :)

Being a "Harness" guy first and foremost, I still maintain a love & passion for T-Bred racing, but, in more recent times, I have had a change of heart when addressing the synthetice surface issue....

I have found that I now enjoy more frequent success' on that surface, now that I apply some of my "methodologies" that are unique to "harness-racing" (as opposed to T-breds), when handicapping this surface...

So, in that regard, my original vote would have to be changed, as my opinion of that surface, handicapping-wise, has changed...

best,

[LottaKash]

More recent? It was two weeks ago. :)

Wow, has it been that long ?...
Where am I ?....Old-Timers disease, I suspect.....:confused: ....oh well...:cool:

best,

[andymays]

http://www.latimes.com/sports/la-sp-del-mar10-2009sep10,0,4165379.column

Excerpt:

The response Wednesday from Del Mar's leading trainer, John Sadler, who finished with 31 victories, spoke volumes about the continuing controversy.

"No comment," was Sadler's answer to a question about the Polytrack's troubles. :eek:

On Monday, Sadler's 4-year-old filly, Dawn Before Dawn, suffered a cracked pelvis running in the Adoration Stakes, ending her racing career.

What the Del Mar meeting has shown is that the maintenance of synthetic surfaces remains a mystery, particularly in locations where the weather fluctuates. :eek:

"The difficult part is getting to understand the track and how it changes with temperature," said Joe Harper, Del Mar's president and general manager. "The frustrating part is you have horsemen who hate it." :eek: Harper, however, said he is convinced that Polytrack fits Del Mar's needs. :eek:

"What we were hoping for is a more forgiving track, and that's what we have," he said. :eek:

Others are having their patience tested and are losing confidence. :eek:

[andymays]

YouTube Music - Albert Hammond - It Never Rains In Southern California


http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-pyC7WnvLT4

If it never rains in Southern California why do we need synthetic surfaces? :confused:

Sometimes is pours though! ;)


:lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol:

[andymays]

YouTube Music - Albert Hammond - It Never Rains In Southern California


http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-pyC7WnvLT4

If it never rains in Southern California why do we need synthetic surfaces? :confused:

Sometimes is pours though! ;)


:lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol:


Just for the record my real name isn't Albert Hammond. Although I am out of work and out of "bread"! :)

[46zilzal]

Woodbine has not suffered these high numbers of breakdowns and the track has not been a roller coaster either as it plays mostly as it did before.

[Bochall]

My problem with poly is this: it muddles the distinction between the divisions of turf and dirt. There is no older male dirt division and no older male turf division...they are one. Some horses in the Pac Classic were coming off a poly-turf-poly move and many had 3 or 4 races over both surfaces in their pp's. Is that good? Maybe we can consolidate the overabundance of Graded races by lumping 2 or 3 together since the surfaces are evidently interchangeable. I know this is just ANOTHER anti poly rant but homogenizing the product doesn't do it for me. I think BC betting will be down sharply this year and that may cause a change (money, or loss of it, often does). Tell me, if you are not a Cali or poly player (like me), how much will you really invest in some of the Juvenile crapshoots this year? Looks like turf and turf only for me.

[Barney Rubble]

Hello everyone,

First post. Great forum!

Back in my day the surface was a little harder than what they run on now. :)

Seriously though, I don't like synthetics.

[andymays]

Hello everyone,

First post. Great forum!

Back in my day the surface was a little harder than what they run on now. :)

Seriously though, I don't like synthetics.


Go Barney and welcome! :ThmbUp:

[MickJ26]

Obviously the synthetic surface was created with the intention to save lives, both equine and human, not to cause headaches for handicappers. As far as I'm concerned, one fatal breakdown is one too many. I don't fault them for trying.

[cj]

Obviously the synthetic surface was created with the intention to save lives, both equine and human, not to cause headaches for handicappers. As far as I'm concerned, one fatal breakdown is one too many. I don't fault them for trying.

Yeah, couldn't have possibly been about money.

[bisket]

i don't like them, but they're good for my betting account, and i've been able to make some upgrades to the house because of them. :ThmbUp: i really only play them on big race days. anyway we can put that choice in the pole ;)

[cj]

Woodbine has not suffered these high numbers of breakdowns and the track has not been a roller coaster either as it plays mostly as it did before.

Wrong again. The positional and energy tendencies have changed noticeably, the longer the race the more the change. I've posted accurate stats here many times to back this up.

Keep saying different though, maybe it will come true some day.

[46zilzal]

Wrong again. The positional and energy tendencies have changed noticeably, the longer the race the more the change. I've posted accurate stats here many times to back this up.

Keep saying different though, maybe it will come true some day.
This makes, by actual count , the 5th time you have responded and for the FIFTH time I will say the same thing. IT HAS NOT.

I play the track every day. If there were such a big change, I, along with many who play it also would have noticed from day one.

I hope to be soon re-locating to Toronto to work for them so I can play it FIRST hand daily.

For the 5th time, we disagree and you need not repeat this crap every time I state what I know to be true.

You and I do NOT view handicapping anywhere close to the same: you look at your numbers and I look at energy distribution so they NEVER will be the same.

[DeanT]

Wrong again. The positional and energy tendencies have changed noticeably, the longer the race the more the change. I've posted accurate stats here many times to back this up.

It's been a hodge podge with biases this year as well. I found it difficult this meet for the first time in several meets.

[cj]

This makes, by actual count , the 5th time you have responded and for the FIFTH time I will say the same thing. IT HAS NOT.

I play the track every day. If there were such a big change, I, along with many who play it also would have noticed from day one.

I hope to be soon re-locating to Toronto to work for them so I can play it FIRST hand daily.

For the 5th time, we disagree and you need not repeat this crap every time I state what I know to be true.

You and I do NOT view handicapping anywhere close to the same: you look at your numbers and I look at energy distribution so they NEVER will be the same.

I've posted actual stats to back it up. You post nothing but general impressions. Usually, and definitely in this case, those are flawed.

Would you like me to post them again? Updated?

[46zilzal]

I've posted actual stats to back it up. You post nothing but general impressions. Usually, and definitely in this case, those are flawed.

Would you like me to post them again? Updated?

A group of e/l numbers which are updated daily and weekly: I don't have a database as they are full of generalizations that simply do not hold up DAY TO DAY.

Read the great work by Leonard Mlodinow, The Drunkard's Walk: How Randomness Rules Our Lives. It was that work the solidified what I have ALWAYS held to be true: that long term statistics are a Generalization and ILLUSION of pattern, wth cause and effect correlations that we READ INTO THEM.

The early/late balance tells me what the track does TODAY, not an average of several years, as that track is notorious for significant change day to day.

You go your way I will go mine as this works very well for me now since I won the very first race on Polytrack there (Vestry Lady for Reade Baker) and only had to tweak the early/late balance a tad to understand it today as much as I did then.

Your data, like mine would be meaningless to one another COMPLETELY.

[DeanT]

Would you like me to post them again? Updated?

I'd like to see them.

[illinoisbred]

You forgot one category or question.

I hate synthetic surfaces but because they are on my Home Tracks and I've been playing them forever, sometimes I play them anyway. In other words I'm an idiot (speaking for myself)! :)
This fits me to a T.

[Jeff P]

CJ, I'm with you on this one.

Track Weight Report
http://www.JCapper.com/messageboard/reports/ImpactStudy_WOX_TrackWeightReport.txt

The above link is to a text file that I just ran and unploaded to my server. It contains something I call a "Track Weight Report." I have an algorithm that looks at the top 3 in each field using three factors: 1. CPace (which is used to represent horses with early ability) 2. CompoundLate (which is used to represent horses with finishing ability) and 3. JPRToteProb - a pretty accurate probability estimate that includes post time odds. The algorithm compares win rate for early and late horses obtained during the specific time period of the sample against historical benchmarks for both early and late horses. It also factors in actual wins vs. expected wins with expected wins for both early and late horses being arrived at using JPRToteProb. The idea behind this last part being that if all the early horses in the sample happened to be hopeless longshots that effect is mitigated as a result of using actual wins vs. expected wins as part of the overall evaluation process.

The algorithm scores weight of track surface ("Track Weight") on a scale of 1 to 5:

1. Speed Favoring
2. Speed Favoring Somewhat
3. Plays Fair.
4. Speed Tiring Somewhat.
5. Speed Tiring.

Looking at the numbers in the text file...

The first section shows Dirt Sprints and Dirt Routes for ALL tracks in a database spanning approximately the past 6-7 weeks.

The second section shows Dirt Sprints and Dirt Routes for Woodbine only during the same time period.

My apologies if the description above seems complicated. My description should become easier to follow from here.

The algorithm is designed to give me a general idea as to how track surfaces have been playing. That's all. It runs at the click of a button and tells me what I want to know at a glance.

It slaps the following "labels" onto the surfaces from the data samples in the text file:

ALL DIRT SPRINTS
Approximate Track Weight: 1.39 (Speed Friendly)

ALL DIRT ROUTES
Approximate Track Weight: 4.13 (Somewhat Speed Tiring)

WOX DIRT SPRINTS
Approximate Track Weight: 3.31 (Plays Fair)

WOX DIRT ROUTES
Approximate Track Weight: 5.00 (Speed Tiring)

From the above - IMHO, Woodbine dirt routes can be said to be more speed tiring than WOX dirt sprints. And the Woodbine dirt surface can be said to be more speed tiring than the surfaces of the other tracks in the data sample during the same time period.


-jp

.

[cj]

Thanks Jeff, but to be honest, it isn't anything I didn't already know. I just like calling people out when they make stuff up.

This certainly doesn't mean there aren't day to day swings, but that is true of ANY track.

[46zilzal]

Ah yes the good old confirmation bias. Been around a very long time

Much akin to two studies of lets say an ecosystem. One investigator uses a database of plant growth in a specific area over the past twenty years as a predictor of the future growth in this ecosystem.

Second investigator uses weekly soil acidity and 02/CO2 flux in that same ecosystem to establish a predictive trend.

Different ways of looking at complex system using different windows that BOTH find predictive, BUT

But the first investigator is unable to understand that there is more than one way to understand something so he rushes to find CONFIRMATION of HIS way of looking a thing rather than understand that there if FAR more than one way to view ANYTHING!

[DeanT]

I agree with Jeff and CJ.

I firmly believe that the weekly soil acidity and 02/CO2 flux in the Woodbine poly is conducive to speed tiring route races.

[Jeff P]

About a month ago I thought I saw untapped kegs of Molson sitting on top of the trailer/tiller thingy being pulled behind the tractor in between races. Looked like they were trying to press the surface down as much as possible. One of those kegs then fell off on the far turn and broke open. Damned if a speed bias didn't materialize. But the next day it was back to normal. <G>

-jp

.

[46zilzal]

Francis Bacon way back in 1620, was clued into it then: "the human understanding , once it has adopted an opinion, collects any instances than confirm it, and though contrary instances may be more numerous and more weighty, it either does not notice them or else rejects them, in order that THIS opinion will remain unshaken."

How can one but watch and observe human nature that has stood the test of time?

[DeanT]

Francis Bacon way back in 1620, was clued into it then: "the human understanding , once it has adopted an opinion, collects any instances than confirm it, and though contrary instances may be more numerous and more weighty, it either does not notice them or else rejects them, in order that THIS opinion will remain unshaken."

How can one but watch and observe human nature that has stood the test of time?

Francis Bacon's brother, Back, was playing the races in 1621 and ran the numbers for the whole meet and found out that overall, closers did well in longer races. He went home and told his brother that there was a guy at the track named Ziliponius that kept telling him he was wrong, despite his statistically significant empirical data. Francis said "Back, human understanding , once it has adopted an opinion, collects any instances than confirm it, and though contrary instances may be more numerous and more weighty, it either does not notice them or else rejects them, in order that THIS opinion will remain unshaken."

Back and Francis then embraced, went to the track the next day, and took all Zilponius's money.

[Tom]

Woodbine has not suffered these high numbers of breakdowns and the track has not been a roller coaster either as it plays mostly as it did before.

Leads me to conclude that the problem lies in the maintenance crews, not the surface. Many appear to have no clue how to handle the stuff. WO provides very good information to the public about what they do and when they do it.
I have no faith at all in the Del Mar information. PID plays fine for me....and btw some nice stakes there this weekend. :ThmbUp:

[Tom]

I hope to be soon re-locating to Toronto to work for them so I can play it FIRST hand daily.



Cool, closer to me. We can meet for lunch in Buffalo or Fort Erie! Go over the card, talk some politics, post bail.:D

[46zilzal]

Cool, closer to me. We can meet for lunch in Buffalo or Fort Erie! Go over the card, talk some politics
Does the phrase "a snowball's chance in hell sound familiar?"

[PaceAdvantage]

Does the phrase "a snowball's chance in hell sound familiar?"AI projects like 46 live completely in the ether that is cyberspace Tom...that's why he can't make it to lunch...either that, or he's just plain anti-social...and unwilling to break bread with those who don't see the world exactly like him....

But I lean towards the whole AI thing being true...only way to explain his hilarious outburst in that old "Genetic Algorithm" thread....:lol:

[PaceAdvantage]

Francis Bacon's brother, Back, I laughed...really...I did! :lol:

[Tampa Russ]

PID plays fine for me....and btw some nice stakes there this weekend. :ThmbUp:

Form PID to the BC for Informed Decision. Interesting times we are living in.

[Tom]

And looky looky looky who ran second to a BC starter......A Finger Lakes horse!:eek:

Ferraro entered her in almost every race at PID - looks like he made the right decision.

[Pell Mell]

I like the Tapeta at GG and PID. Doesn't seem to be much of a bias either way, at least to the horses I play. I have read a couple of articles that said the horsemen and jocks love the surface at PID and also just read somewhere that Tapeta is the safest of ALL tracks.

As far as WO is concerned, I think the place is total chaos. I see horses there that have had many races at all different distances and on and off the turf.
Very few seem to know what distance or surface their horse wants. And, it's usually impossible, for me anyway, to tell who is going to the front on any given day. It usually looks like nobody wants the lead. I won't say I haven't caught some good winners there but I can find nothing consistent. Closers may win consistently but the question I can't answer is; Who is going to close today?:bang:

[FenceBored]

I like the Tapeta at GG and PID. Doesn't seem to be much of a bias either way, at least to the horses I play. I have read a couple of articles that said the horsemen and jocks love the surface at PID and also just read somewhere that Tapeta is the safest of ALL tracks.


Do you think you could find that reference to "Tapeta being the safest of ALL tracks?" The 43 catastrophic breakdowns at GG during FY09 doesn't sound extremely safe to me. That's higher than most of their dirt year figures.

[DJofSD]

Leads me to conclude that the problem lies in the maintenance crews, not the surface. Many appear to have no clue how to handle the stuff. WO provides very good information to the public about what they do and when they do it.
I have no faith at all in the Del Mar information. PID plays fine for me....and btw some nice stakes there this weekend. :ThmbUp:
I wonder if the differences in weather and climate conditions between San Diego and Toronto explain the differences.

For example, questions like: what is the ambient temperature of the AWS at the time of the race? How many races occur with direct sunlight v cloud cover? How cold does it get at night? How many horses train over the surface in the morning on any given race day?

[andymays]

Do you think you could find that reference to "Tapeta being the safest of ALL tracks?" The 43 catastrophic breakdowns at GG during FY09 doesn't sound extremely safe to me. That's higher than most of their dirt year figures.


Fence,for whatever reason it's seems that people aren't made aware of things outside of southern california as much. Del Mar, Santa Anita, and Hollywood are closely scrutinized especially since the beginning of the year. Maybe there is more media coverage out here. Golden Gate has had plenty of problems but you just don't hear about it.

Somebody needs to find out how many of these Racing Executives and Racing Official if any, recieved Commissions, Stock Options, kickbacks, and other benefits from installing this overpriced junk. Other than rainy weather, the "follow the money" angle is the only one left that makes sense to me. Are there any investigative reporters left in the world?

[Pell Mell]

Do you think you could find that reference to "Tapeta being the safest of ALL tracks?" The 43 catastrophic breakdowns at GG during FY09 doesn't sound extremely safe to me. That's higher than most of their dirt year figures.

I hope you'll excuse me for not remembering exactly where I read that. I do believe I was browsing the articles about Rachel on Equidaly over the weekend and Tapeta was given mention because it is being installed over in Dubai I think.
How do you guys keep track of where you read what? I usually read for several hours a day on the net. I might be reading an article that I saw on another web site and then something else catches my eye. Before i know it I'm miles away from my starting point.
I read articles and stories in newspapers all over the world. Maybe I should write myself a note as to where I read things but I would probably be buried in notes.:confused:

[andymays]

I hope you'll excuse me for not remembering exactly where I read that. I do believe I was browsing the articles about Rachel on Equidaly over the weekend and Tapeta was given mention because it is being installed over in Dubai I think.
How do you guys keep track of where you read what? I usually read for several hours a day on the net. I might be reading an article that I saw on another web site and then something else catches my eye. Before i know it I'm miles away from my starting point.
I read articles and stories in newspapers all over the world. Maybe I should write myself a note as to where I read things but I would probably be buried in notes.:confused:

If I had to guess I would probably have said Tapeta was the safest as well.

As I've said before, up until this year I don't believe we should trust the information from the Tracks with synthetic surfaces to have provided accurate information on injuries and breakdowns. In California I do trust the information gathered over the last year or so because they know everyone is paying attention.

The surface is the last thing Horseplayers should have to be worried about!

[FenceBored]

I hope you'll excuse me for not remembering exactly where I read that. I do believe I was browsing the articles about Rachel on Equidaly over the weekend and Tapeta was given mention because it is being installed over in Dubai I think.
How do you guys keep track of where you read what? I usually read for several hours a day on the net. I might be reading an article that I saw on another web site and then something else catches my eye. Before i know it I'm miles away from my starting point.
I read articles and stories in newspapers all over the world. Maybe I should write myself a note as to where I read things but I would probably be buried in notes.:confused:

No sweat, just curious. I thought things were going good with Tapeta until I started looking at the CHRB annual reports.

[bks]

Pro Ride. Cushion Track. Polytrack. Tapeta.

I have yet to see anyone show evidence showing these diverse surfaces share any characteristic relevant to performance which warrants grouping them together.

Yet it is done all the time. From what I see synthetic surfaces:

1. are not nearly the same, and can change character rapidly;

2. are each different than dirt but not in the same way, and

3. some are more like dirt than they are like other synthetic tracks.

[cj]

Pro Ride. Cushion Track. Polytrack. Tapeta.

I have yet to see anyone show evidence showing these diverse surfaces share any characteristic relevant to performance which warrants grouping them together.

Yet it is done all the time. From what I see synthetic surfaces:

1. are not nearly the same, and can change character rapidly;

2. are each different than dirt but not in the same way, and

3. some are more like dirt than they are like other synthetic tracks.

I disagree. I think they all have the same general tendencies, just like most dirt tracks have the same tendencies and most turf courses play alike. It doesn't, of course, mean they are all EXACTLY alike.

I do agree they tend to produce more biases, and even stronger biases, than we see on dirt. Of course, most often they are man made.

[Bruddah]

I disagree. I think they all have the same general tendencies, just like most dirt tracks have the same tendencies and most turf courses play alike. It doesn't, of course, mean they are all EXACTLY alike.

I do agree they tend to produce more biases, and even stronger biases, than we see on dirt. Of course, most often they are man made.

There are maybe a dozen or so really knowledgable Horse Players on this board. There are very many intelligent people, which post on this forum, but only a scant few which really are knowledgable about this game. Let me be clear about what I am saying. There are many excellent and knowledgable Horsemen/women on this site. Many knowledgable Industry insiders post here as well. But, there are just a few elite Horse Players.

Cj is among the elite group of knowledgable Horse Players. He is a true student and researcher (everyday) of the betting side of Horse Racing. (Jeff P is another) I may disagree with some of their opinions but I would NEVER not respect those opinions. Because, I would probably have to wipe egg from my face at a later date. I always look forward to reading the posts of the the "Dirty Dozen", as I refer to them. Why Dirty? Because they get down to the dirty work of really knowing this game.

My hat is off to the Dirty Dozen. You know who you are because of the respect others give to your opinions. :ThmbUp:

[bks]

I disagree. I think they all have the same general tendencies, just like most dirt tracks have the same tendencies and most turf courses play alike.

What are those tendencies, cj? Thx.

[cj]

What are those tendencies, cj? Thx.

Successful horses go slower early, and finish stronger late. The longer the race, the more pronounced the tendency.

[jonnielu]

The same goes for the other two surfaces. But, actually it is the whole concept that the track surface plays some appreciable role in the results of races that I am the most in love with.

It gives handicappers lots of excercise to have something to chase after.

jdl

[cj]

The same goes for the other two surfaces. But, actually it is the whole concept that the track surface plays some appreciable role in the results of races that I am the most in love with.

It gives handicappers lots of excercise to have something to chase after.

jdl

Yes, surface has nothing to do with it. That is why so many horses move between surfaces with similar success. :rolleyes:

[DJofSD]

Yes, surface has nothing to do with it. That is why so many horses move between surfaces with similar success. :rolleyes:
:lol:

Where's the dripping with sarcasm emoticon?

:lol:

[jonnielu]

Yes, surface has nothing to do with it. That is why so many horses move between surfaces with similar success. :rolleyes:

Is that to be taken as a suggestion that they don't?

[cj]

Most don't, a few do. Example 1 of thousands...

[jonnielu]

Most don't, a few do. Example 1 of thousands...

There are several moves going on here, and 8f dirt at GP is a one turn race, typically run at a better early clip then 2 turns on grass. This record says more about misplacement then it does about surface.

On surface, it may back up what is already known on regional turf courses. But, there isn't anything there on dirt to poly to turf .... yada yada.

Maybe instead of making assumptions off of a race or two, you could make a list of horses that can't run well on poly and see if they share some other common trait. Of course, they would have to be running well on dirt or grass, so it could be tough to do.

jdl

[cj]

There are several moves going on here, and 8f dirt at GP is a one turn race, typically run at a better early clip then 2 turns on grass. This record says more about misplacement then it does about surface.

On surface, it may back up what is already known on regional turf courses. But, there isn't anything there on dirt to poly to turf .... yada yada.

Maybe instead of making assumptions off of a race or two, you could make a list of horses that can't run well on poly and see if they share some other common trait. Of course, they would have to be running well on dirt or grass, so it could be tough to do.

jdl

Yes, that is exactly how I'm going to spend my time. I'll compile some lists for you...get real. Almost all horses have a preferred surface where they are more competitive and run faster than on others. Good luck pretending they don't.

[jonnielu]

Yes, that is exactly how I'm going to spend my time. I'll compile some lists for you...get real. Almost all horses have a preferred surface where they are more competitive and run faster than on others. Good luck pretending they don't.

You can't demonstrate that, and you know it. Is your example horse better on Keeneland grass, or is it not able to rate at distances over a mile? Is it an allowance horse, or a mis-placed $30,000 claimer? How many 1 turn middle distances has it run on poly or dirt?

What genius decided it is a grass horse in the first place?

"Preferred surface" is even more mythology than "variant". At least "variant" is a thing that actually exists, just not on the track surface.

jdl

P.S. The suggestion I made about a list, was for your own education, if you did find even a handful of horses that actually can't run on a particular surface well, you would likely find that they share a common trait, and you might learn something.

[cj]

What makes you think I need education in the area?

Anyway, here is another horse from the same Belmont card tomorrow. Clearly, this horse is much better on turf than dirt. Granted, she stinks on both, but this is as clear an example as you will find.

Turf Beyers: 53, 39, 49, 48, 61
Dirt Beyers: 3, 11, 31, <0, <0

[andymays]

O'Neill: Pro-Ride surface will be just fine

http://www.insidesocal.com/horseracing/2009/09/oneill-pro-ride-surface-will-b.html

Excerpt:

I saw Doug O'Neill in the Top of the Park restaurant at Fairplex Park on Wednesday and asked him if what I had heard was true -- were trainers unhappy with the recent condition of Santa Anita's Pro-Ride surface since it re-opened for training on Sept. 1?

O'Neill told me that while the track was a little uneven and had some inconsistencies in it for a few days, the problem has been corrected.
"The first five lanes are fine now, and that's all you really need during training hours," O'Neill said. "I think they did some work on it. It will be OK."

[jonnielu]

What makes you think I need education in the area?

Anyway, here is another horse from the same Belmont card tomorrow. Clearly, this horse is much better on turf than dirt. Granted, she stinks on both, but this is as clear an example as you will find.

Turf Beyers: 53, 39, 49, 48, 61
Dirt Beyers: 3, 11, 31, <0, <0

That would be the examples that you are whipping out. And, your statement that this one is as clear as can be found.

If it could be said that one thing is clear with this horse, it would be that nothing is clear with this horse. This record might establish the idea that this horse belongs in a pasture more then a stall at Belmont. If you had to conclude something.

If you wanted to say that the Beyers show something, you could say that they show a generally slower pace on grass. That is generally known without Beyers, the question has always been , why? The general assumption has always been that the turf surface is generally tiring in comparison to dirt.

Following that general line of thought, the Beyers for this horse could show that it has no early speed at all, hence it appears to do better on grass, a contest that most often, is not one of early speed.

The lengthy breaks suggest that physical problems could be at work, and as long as that may be at play, it would be difficult to establish anything as far as where the horse belongs, be it surface, distance, or class level.

At any rate, the best thing a horseplayer could do with regard to a horse like this is to only conclude that nothing is established here, and it would be best to wait any conclusions until something is established.

jdl

P.S. You might try looking at the group of horses that have recently gone from the dirt/grass of Ellis Park to the Poly of Turfway Park.

[cj]

That would be the examples that you are whipping out. And, your statement that this one is as clear as can be found.

If it could be said that one thing is clear with this horse, it would be that nothing is clear with this horse. This record might establish the idea that this horse belongs in a pasture more then a stall at Belmont. If you had to conclude something.

If you wanted to say that the Beyers show something, you could say that they show a generally slower pace on grass. That is generally known without Beyers, the question has always been , why? The general assumption has always been that the turf surface is generally tiring in comparison to dirt.

Following that general line of thought, the Beyers for this horse could show that it has no early speed at all, hence it appears to do better on grass, a contest that most often, is not one of early speed.

The lengthy breaks suggest that physical problems could be at work, and as long as that may be at play, it would be difficult to establish anything as far as where the horse belongs, be it surface, distance, or class level.

At any rate, the best thing a horseplayer could do with regard to a horse like this is to only conclude that nothing is established here, and it would be best to wait any conclusions until something is established.

jdl

P.S. You might try looking at the group of horses that have recently gone from the dirt/grass of Ellis Park to the Poly of Turfway Park.

How about Dylan Thomas, a top class grass horse, that couldn't run a step on dirt...see the Jockey Club Gold Cup. Look, if you want to pretend surface is irrelevant, be my guest.

[FenceBored]

How about Dylan Thomas, a top class grass horse, that couldn't run a step on dirt...see the Jockey Club Gold Cup. Look, if you want to pretend surface is irrelevant, be my guest.

My guess is you'll be asked to choose from the reasons listed below:


He was facing clearly better horses.
He was going off form. My numbers show it and everyone agrees.
One race doesn't prove anything.
The left-hand turn confused him.
The one turn course bothered him.
He had a bad trip.
The pace setup was not to his liking.
He had a bad flake of hay the night before.
Lasix doesn't agree with him.
Did I forget any?

[andymays]

When we only had Dirt and Turf we had two distinct and wonderful surfaces. Very few Horses could run equally well on both surfaces and that made it all the more special when one could.

John Henry comes to mind. :ThmbUp:

[jonnielu]

How about Dylan Thomas, a top class grass horse, that couldn't run a step on dirt...see the Jockey Club Gold Cup. Look, if you want to pretend surface is irrelevant, be my guest.

I never said surface is irrelevent, you said that there are thousands of horses that prefer one surface to the other, or can perform well on one surface and not the other. To which, I said poppycock, and that you can't demonstrate that.

Was Dylan Thomas some guaranteed winner? Apparently, he lost a race, what does surface have to do with it? Is Belmont dirt the only dirt he ever tried? What if he set a record on Tampa dirt, would that mean that Tampa dirt is special, or just different.

jdl

[FenceBored]

My guess is you'll be asked to choose from the reasons listed below:



He was facing clearly better horses.
He was going off form. My numbers show it and everyone agrees.
One race doesn't prove anything.
The left-hand turn confused him.
The one turn course bothered him.
He had a bad trip.
The pace setup was not to his liking.
He had a bad flake of hay the night before.
Lasix doesn't agree with him.
Did I forget any?


Number (3) it is. :jump::jump:

[jonnielu]

Number (3) it is. :jump::jump:

The man said he had a load of examples, seems like it was a short load.

Maybe you'd like to take over on the documentation, while he waves the cat bones and chicken lips for awhile.

jdl

[FenceBored]

The man said he had a load of examples, seems like it was a short load.

Maybe you'd like to take over on the documentation, while he waves the cat bones and chicken lips for awhile.

jdl

:D No, I've seen the drill.

Most connections aren't dumb enough to keep running a horse who doesn't like a surface on that surface, so there's seldom a large sample with a particular horse to look at. Outsiders can always find some other excuse for why the horse didn't run well in those one or two races. Take Curlin's Man o' War, 2nd between two BC Turf winners. Looked at like that it's a good performance. But, Jackson and Asmussen didn't like the way he handled the turf, therefore they didn't run him on it again. Now you'll just say that the horse in the stall next to him had his stereo up high till all hours of the night and Curlin to sleep. Or, whatever.

[jonnielu]

:D No, I've seen the drill.

Most connections aren't dumb enough to keep running a horse who doesn't like a surface on that surface, so there's seldom a large sample with a particular horse to look at. Outsiders can always find some other excuse for why the horse didn't run well in those one or two races. Take Curlin's Man o' War, 2nd between two BC Turf winners. Looked at like that it's a good performance. But, Jackson and Asmussen didn't like the way he handled the turf, therefore they didn't run him on it again. Now you'll just say that the horse in the stall next to him had his stereo up high till all hours of the night and Curlin to sleep. Or, whatever.

I think handicappers just get so attached to their myths, that they don't want to see anything to the contrary. Curlin is a good horse, but there are limits to the ability that enabled him to run like a machine at 10f dirt. And, that ability would enable him to represent well on any turf course too.

But, the winners share of a million dollar purse pales in significance when compared to a stallions potential fee of $500,000, if that stallions record will support the fee. One try on grass, is worth the risk, no matter the outcome, especially when a win is likely. Same with a try on poly.

With the results of those tries in hand, it couldn't really be said that Curlin doesn't like the grass, he was right there with two BC grass champions. If it is said that Curlin doesn't like poly, no one cares to find out any different. So, the damage from that one loss can be minimized, and it could be said that the one run on poly was worth the risk. You certainly wouldn't want to risk another start on poly, or on any other surface, just to help reveal the truth, whatever it may be.

Curlin's record doen't reveal any substantial evidence of horses liking a particular surface, or dis-liking another. It does show a masterful job in crafting a record for a maximum stud fee. Jess Jackson's marketing skills are to be admired.

To get back to the subject, can't you find a group of horses on the NY circuit that don't like dirt or grass? There seems to be a fair amount of switching back and forth there.

jdl

[FenceBored]

I think handicappers just get so attached to their myths, that they don't want to see anything to the contrary. Curlin is a good horse, but there are limits to the ability that enabled him to run like a machine at 10f dirt. And, that ability would enable him to represent well on any turf course too.

But, the winners share of a million dollar purse pales in significance when compared to a stallions potential fee of $500,000, if that stallions record will support the fee. One try on grass, is worth the risk, no matter the outcome, especially when a win is likely. Same with a try on poly.

With the results of those tries in hand, it couldn't really be said that Curlin doesn't like the grass, he was right there with two BC grass champions. If it is said that Curlin doesn't like poly, no one cares to find out any different. So, the damage from that one loss can be minimized, and it could be said that the one run on poly was worth the risk. You certainly wouldn't want to risk another start on poly, or on any other surface, just to help reveal the truth, whatever it may be.

Curlin's record doen't reveal any substantial evidence of horses liking a particular surface, or dis-liking another. It does show a masterful job in crafting a record for a maximum stud fee. Jess Jackson's marketing skills are to be admired.

To get back to the subject, can't you find a group of horses on the NY circuit that don't like dirt or grass? There seems to be a fair amount of switching back and forth there.

jdl

Just found someone who I'm sure will be thrilled to have this discussion with you, statik27. He thinks it's an impressive thing for any horse to be able to win on multiple surfaces.

[Indulto]

http://www.latimes.com/sports/la-sp-dwyre29-2009sep29,0,5776187.column (http://www.latimes.com/sports/la-sp-dwyre29-2009sep29,0,5776187.column)
Fairplex could be a bigger player in Southland horse racing
By Bill DwyreSeptember 29, 2009… The Breeders' Cup, as great as it is for racing and for the climate of the sport here, will always take its show elsewhere. Left behind will be problems of a Southern California industry up to its hip boots in muck.

Foremost is that it is being held hostage by one of its own, Hollywood Park. Once a crown jewel of sport and society, a magnate for equine stars and Hollywood stars, it is now a real estate development in waiting.

… That's where the murmurs come in, murmurs that wonder why racing officials keep giving Hollywood Park keys to the house when it has long ago declared it wanted a divorce and would be moving out. Why not beat the executioner? Why not thank them for their service, spread around those precious dates to other facilities, and mention something about not letting the door hit them in the rear end on the way out.

This is where Fairplex comes in. And don't misunderstand. Its officials are no more pushing the aforementioned scenario for their own purposes than they are capable of handling such a thing right now.

… Its dirt track gets high marks in a state where the word "synthetics" has become an expletive. And it has barn space, which is vital once the bulldozers roll at Hollywood Park.

Tom Knust is the racing secretary at Fairplex. …

… Knust says he will soon meet with other Fairplex officials and hopes to hit on three major proposals:

* That Fairplex become the area training center for 2-year-olds, thereby taking pressure off other tracks and getting the young equine stars on the now-perceived safer dirt surface -- "I'd say 90% of the horsemen now think that Fairplex is the best surface in the area," Knust says.

* That Fairplex get a commitment from the various horsemen groups now, rather than waiting as Hollywood Park dithers, for help in expansion of the track and training facility, the latter ideally a year-round thing.

* That Fairplex become the feed co-op center for the area, at a substantial savings for horsemen.

This is all pie in the sky. Right now, Fairplex has been told that state funds for stable costs are in jeopardy. Instead of getting more, Fairplex might get less.

But when the heavy equipment rolls at Hollywood Park -- or maybe even before it does -- and as Santa Anita and Del Mar happily absorb more of the racing dates, look for little old Fairplex to get an invitation to the dance, too.

[Bruddah]

Here is the real answer to horses and surfaces.

Trainers and owners run horses where they think they can win. ($$$) We humans (Handicappers) interpret and express that in terms of "the Horse" does or doesn't like a particular surface. In fact, the horse's hoof size and running mechanics have more to do with it, than his likes or dislikes. There are so many variables and unknowns about the ability of a horse on particular surfaces that people who spend 24/7 with them don't know if they can run well until they have tried.

[DJofSD]

The last thing a horse wants to do is fall down. When traveling over a suface that is uneven or does not offer a firm or solid footing the horse will not extend itself. Maintaining balance is directly equivalent to self preservation.

I suspect a horse's sense of the footing varies depending upon the surface. While the same surface might be to the liking of one animal, for another, it just does not care for it. I believe this can be said about both traditional surfaces and plastic dirt. Hoof confirmation, stride length, how straight it runs, the amount of energy returned to the foot at impact, and even the jockey likely all contribute to how easily or not so easily a horse will gallop out over a surface.

One of my pet theories is about horses that do not travel straight, meaning, the path of the hind quarters is not the same as the front quarters. An example can be seen in a head on shot of horses approaching the finish line. You will notice some have their rear quarter slight further to the inside or outside of the line it is traveling on. Reasons for this are many and varied but are not important for this discussion. When a horse does not travel straight the ability to travel in balance is compromised and especially so when traveling on a curved path like on a turn. If the horse is not in balance, it will slow down lest it falls down. And my conjecture goes like this: plastic dirt does not offer the same amount of resistance to lateral slipping. Therefore, a horse that does not travel straight is even further compromised when not going on straight line. In order to not fall down, it will either slow down by reducing the length of the stride or the slowing the pace.

[illinoisbred]

The last thing a horse wants to do is fall down. When traveling over a suface that is uneven or does not offer a firm or solid footing the horse will not extend itself. Maintaining balance is directly equivalent to self preservation.

I suspect a horse's sense of the footing varies depending upon the surface. While the same surface might be to the liking of one animal, for another, it just does not care for it. I believe this can be said about both traditional surfaces and plastic dirt. Hoof confirmation, stride length, how straight it runs, the amount of energy returned to the foot at impact, and even the jockey likely all contribute to how easily or not so easily a horse will gallop out over a surface.

One of my pet theories is about horses that do not travel straight, meaning, the path of the hind quarters is not the same as the front quarters. An example can be seen in a head on shot of horses approaching the finish line. You will notice some have their rear quarter slight further to the inside or outside of the line it is traveling on. Reasons for this are many and varied but are not important for this discussion. When a horse does not travel straight the ability to travel in balance is compromised and especially so when traveling on a curved path like on a turn. If the horse is not in balance, it will slow down lest it falls down. And my conjecture goes like this: plastic dirt does not offer the same amount of resistance to lateral slipping. Therefore, a horse that does not travel straight is even further compromised when not going on straight line. In order to not fall down, it will either slow down by reducing the length of the stride or the slowing the pace.
I've always heard the thing a horse fears most is falling down. Never heard an explanation why.Is it safe to assume that its instinctive-fear of being open to attack by predators?

[DJofSD]

Yes, I believe that is true. As you have probably observed, horses don't get back on their feet very easily or quickly. To be caught by a preditor while on the ground would very bad for the horse.

[illinoisbred]

Yes, I believe that is true. As you have probably observed, horses don't get back on their feet very easily or quickly. To be caught by a preditor while on the ground would very bad for the horse.
This and this alone then provides all the logic/reason for just throwing -out races on synthetic or turf on those who haven't shown a fondness for either surface.The horse will never put-out if he/she fears falling.