formula_2002
09-09-2009, 02:45 PM
I think its time to add 1 more caveat to the model.
Plays are to me limited to the favorite and second choice
For some time, I was aware that all the profits were being generated by those two choices.
the roi for these two choices is 1.10.
beyond is .88.
also the model performs best in races where there are scratches and the model is not recalculated.
when there are no scratches the roi is 1.03
in races with scratches, the roi is 1.18.
the revised model0909 willl look like this
n155>=.25 .and.n157>=2.and.n200>=7.and.n184>=1.and.n184<=2
where n155 and n157 are computer generated figures.
n200 is field size
n184 is post time betting choices (favorite and next)
there will also be an inclination to increase bet size where there is a scratch in a race. for the time being i will assume an entry scratch as a positive.
Plays are to me limited to the favorite and second choice
For some time, I was aware that all the profits were being generated by those two choices.
the roi for these two choices is 1.10.
beyond is .88.
also the model performs best in races where there are scratches and the model is not recalculated.
when there are no scratches the roi is 1.03
in races with scratches, the roi is 1.18.
the revised model0909 willl look like this
n155>=.25 .and.n157>=2.and.n200>=7.and.n184>=1.and.n184<=2
where n155 and n157 are computer generated figures.
n200 is field size
n184 is post time betting choices (favorite and next)
there will also be an inclination to increase bet size where there is a scratch in a race. for the time being i will assume an entry scratch as a positive.