Trifecta Experiment... Win big or lose big?

[Tom-Oh]

As a handicapper I always gather as much information as possible before putting my wager in on a horse or horses. I usually use 2 pieces of software I have, and manually read the PP myself and after studying all 3 things, I make my selections. Now what I've come to realize is that one my softwares is picking Trifecta boxes, A LOT! Last night at Yonkers it hit 3 for a total of $700+ and hit 2 at Hazel Park for a total over $6,000!!! It hit a $5,800 Trifecta, WOW! So after doing my calculations with cumulative picks and results from this software, I realize Yonkers is it's best track and this experiment should take place there.

Now let me explain the experiment. Depending on how tonight goes, I may continue this for a few days or maybe even a week.

I'm going to do $2 Trifecta Boxes in each race with the software's top 3 selections, I will not even be looking at the PP myself, straight from the software. This costs $12 a race to do, and with a total of 13 races tonight, it will cost me $156 total. I'll be playing with my father so it's not as bad as it seems, we're splitting it $6 a race, so it's really only $78 for me.

Now the experiment comes into play. We're going to see if this obscure method can produce us a positive ROI and make us some profit on an everyday basis. I mean, all that needs to click is ONE Trifecta for $156+ and we break even or make a profit for the day, and by the calculations we've done, on a regular night this shouldn't be a problem... If anything maybe connect for a little less and only lose a few bucks on the night.

I'll post the software's Trifecta picks every night we test this experiment. I'll post tonight's in a little bit.

Wish me luck!
Tom

[Ray2000]

Of course I don't know how deep your pockets are, but why not "experiment" with $1 boxes or better yet... a paper run. In either case I wish you luck.

[botster]

As a handicapper I always gather as much information as possible before putting my wager in on a horse or horses. I usually use 2 pieces of software I have, and manually read the PP myself and after studying all 3 things, I make my selections. Now what I've come to realize is that one my softwares is picking Trifecta boxes, A LOT! Last night at Yonkers it hit 3 for a total of $700+ and hit 2 at Hazel Park for a total over $6,000!!! It hit a $5,800 Trifecta, WOW! So after doing my calculations with cumulative picks and results from this software, I realize Yonkers is it's best track and this experiment should take place there.

Now let me explain the experiment. Depending on how tonight goes, I may continue this for a few days or maybe even a week.

I'm going to do $2 Trifecta Boxes in each race with the software's top 3 selections, I will not even be looking at the PP myself, straight from the software. This costs $12 a race to do, and with a total of 13 races tonight, it will cost me $156 total. I'll be playing with my father so it's not as bad as it seems, we're splitting it $6 a race, so it's really only $78 for me.

Now the experiment comes into play. We're going to see if this obscure method can produce us a positive ROI and make us some profit on an everyday basis. I mean, all that needs to click is ONE Trifecta for $156+ and we break even or make a profit for the day, and by the calculations we've done, on a regular night this shouldn't be a problem... If anything maybe connect for a little less and only lose a few bucks on the night.

I'll post the software's Trifecta picks every night we test this experiment. I'll post tonight's in a little bit.

Wish me luck!
Tom

I will be around for some live Yonkers chat and picks tonight.Go ahead Tom, fire up that software and let's see how we do!

[Tom-Oh]

Of course I don't know how deep your pockets are, but why not "experiment" with $1 boxes or better yet... a paper run. In either case I wish you luck.
We've done a paper run all of August, that's why we're going to try it for REAL tonight! And it pretty much is a $1 box for me, it's only $2 really because I'm splitting it with my dad. So we're both playing $1 boxes really...

[botster]

We've done a paper run all of August, that's why we're going to try it for REAL tonight! And it pretty much is a $1 box for me, it's only $2 really because I'm splitting it with my dad. So we're both playing $1 boxes really...

Good Fortune...DO WORK!

[Tom-Oh]

Tonight's Trifecta Box Picks from my Software - Yonkers Raceway TUESDAY 9-8-09

Race 1... 3,7,8 box

Race 2... 2,3,7 box

Race 3... 5,6,7 box

Race 4... 2,3,5 box

Race 5... 1,2,5 box

Race 6... 3,6,7 box

Race 7... 1,2,7 box

Race 8... 1,4,6 box

Race 9... 2,3,6 box

Race 10... 3,7,8 box

Race 11... 1,2,4 box

Race 12... 4,5,7 box

Race 13... 3,4,5 box

Those are the picks for tonight's first REAL run of the experiment. Hope we do good!

[bugboy]

good luck to you and dad

frank

[SansuiSC]

I'm curious though whatever is giving you a trifecta box, is it giving you a key horse in that selection process?

Does your other software product come up with any of the same horses on a consistant basis as that might be the key?

I'm sure you have read alot here and notice when Ray posts his picks he always has a key horse.

In addition, in looking back on your paper run, how many of these trifecta boxes missed but resulted in the exacta coming in?

Best of luck tonight with your experiment.

[Tom-Oh]

SansuiSC, It does give me a specific order, but for the experiment I am boxing the top 3. So for easy-read purposes I just posted them in number order.

Now for the exacta boxing, that does even better, we were thinking about doing that rather than triples for the experiment... Obviously if it's picking the boxed triple it's picking the boxed exacta... So for Yonkers last night it picked 3 triples, and 2 exactas beyond the ones in the triple boxes. So a total of 5 three-horse exacta boxes came in. Even though these came in, value wise we are thinking the triple boxes will work out better.

We'll see tonight!

[Tom-Oh]

We actually are taking Ray's advice and doing $1 boxes for out first real trial run tonight... We spent $78 in total for 13 races. It cost my dad and I $39 each, we will split the winnings evenly (if any).

I think $39 is a fair price for this test, showing it's results in previous weeks on this track..

[Zman179]

As a handicapper I always gather as much information as possible before putting my wager in on a horse or horses. I usually use 2 pieces of software I have, and manually read the PP myself and after studying all 3 things, I make my selections. Now what I've come to realize is that one my softwares is picking Trifecta boxes, A LOT! Last night at Yonkers it hit 3 for a total of $700+ and hit 2 at Hazel Park for a total over $6,000!!! It hit a $5,800 Trifecta, WOW! So after doing my calculations with cumulative picks and results from this software, I realize Yonkers is it's best track and this experiment should take place there.

Wow, looks like the board just got a fresh coat of red paint.

[Tom-Oh]

Wow, looks like the board just got a fresh coat of red paint.
Zman, I didn't play any of the picks... it was a paper-run... How is that red-boarding? I'll take a picture of the print out if you'd like..

[Zman179]

Zman, I didn't play any of the picks... it was a paper-run... How is that red-boarding? I'll take a picture of the print out if you'd like..

Nah, no need. As far as that $5800 tri at Hazel Park, I didn't play it either. :cool:

[Tom-Oh]

Well, that $5,800 triple was the race that prompted me to do my calculations of past picks and results to lead me to do this experiment... I wish I played it :(

[LottaKash]

Well, that $5,800 triple was the race that prompted me to do my calculations of past picks and results to lead me to do this experiment... I wish I played it :(

It's OK Tom, most of us when thinking we have discovered the "real-thing", have felt just the way you are feeling right now.....

It is redboarding in a sense, but your "new" found winning way has gotten you all excited....I understand and share your enthusiasm.....

Sometimes the "holy grail" turns out to be the "holy bull", so before you think you have found the key to the mint, just give it some more time.....

Sometimes it is good luck, or a coincidence, or just something else.....

STill, if your software is doing that good, all the better to the good....

I will be eagerly waiting to see how your little experiment does in the "long haul"....

I hope it does well, then you won't have to waste so many years and so many dollars like the rest of us....

Go Tom, !!!!!

best,

[Bennie]

Tom-Oh, the 8 horse is scratched in the first. Just to keep the doubters happy, maybe you should include the 4th pick for in case of scratches. Also, just curious as to the hit rate if you don't put the "favorite" on top of your trifectas

[Tom-Oh]

Tom-Oh, the 8 horse is scratched in the first. Just to keep the doubters happy, maybe you should include the 4th pick for in case of scratches. Also, just curious as to the hit rate if you don't put the "favorite" on top of your trifectas
Ah, actually my credit card reached it's limit this month so I can't deposit anything on YouBet! I went down to OTB before and placed my bets, I guess that means I'll get a refund from the first race... :confused:

As for the favorites, this program doesn't go by morning line odds. Sometimes it will pick me a 40-1 horse to win. I mean, that usually doesn't win, but I did have a 60-1 horse the other night at Mohawk during the stakes race with The Sportswriter that I played to show for $50 and caught a $8.00 show price I believe. It was a nice hit.

[JBmadera]

excellet hit on R2! Congrats.

JB

[SansuiSC]

Your 2nd race paid for the night. Very good. :jump:

Best of luck the rest of the way!!

1st 7-Round About $63.00 $13.60 $11.00
2nd 2-Ocean Front - $3.00 $2.90
3rd 3-Four Starz Cherry $2.60

$2.00 DOUBLE 3/7 $337.00
$1.00 EXACTA 7-2 $117.50
$1.00 TRIFECTA 7-2-3 $275.50

[Ray2000]

Nice hit:ThmbUp:


Who was it that suggested 1$ tickets?...:blush: ....

[Pace Cap'n]

Had the daily double as well.

[Tom-Oh]

So at the end of day 1, with an original investment of $79....

Drum roll please..........

We end the day with $281.50!!! Playing verbatim what the software picked and boxing it. We never picked up the PP once.

We hit Race 2, the 7 horse paid $63.00 to win!!! The $1 triple paid $275.50!!!

We got our money back for Race 1 as we put in our bet earlier in the night before the 8 horse was scratched (parimutuel refund of our $6.00).

We didn't play any 3-horse exacta boxes, but our software picked a handful of those aswell, not the best value though (except the $117.50 in Race 2 where we hit the triple).

So on the overall, Night one of the experiment, SUCCESSFUL!!!

I look forward to keeping this experiment on-going and keep you all up to date.

We'll be back Thursday with Yonkers again!

[Tom-Oh]

Our ROI for night one of the experiment is 353% :)

[Tom-Oh]

I don't want to Red Board but I did a paper run on a few tracks tonight just for more calculation purposes... I just checked The Meadows results... The software picked 4 triple boxes tonight... I hope it does that for Yonkers tomorrow as we will be playing REAL again!!!

[botster]

I don't want to Red Board but I did a paper run on a few tracks tonight just for more calculation purposes... I just checked The Meadows results... The software picked 4 triple boxes tonight... I hope it does that for Yonkers tomorrow as we will be playing REAL again!!!

Good Fortune there Tom.

Not another "Red Boarder",you could get titled one of those around here for making logical opinions on why you lost a bet...HAHAHAHAHAHAHA! :D.

I hope you keep on winning...I REALLY DO, SO DO WORK:ThmbUp:.

[Sea Biscuit]

I don't want to Red Board but I did a paper run on a few tracks tonight just for more calculation purposes... I just checked The Meadows results... The software picked 4 triple boxes tonight... I hope it does that for Yonkers tomorrow as we will be playing REAL again!!!

Good luck kid!!!!

You are on your way to fame and fortune.

Aren't you gonna ask how long this game has been going on?:)

Sea Biscuit.

[Tom-Oh]

lol fame and fortune, always leave it up to Sea Biscuit to make that kind of statement.

I'm not looking for that man, I'm just trying out a 'system' that will produce me a profit every week. To the point where I'll be doing this on 3-4 tracks a night... not monitoring it at all and checking the results in the morning.

[LottaKash]

lol fame and fortune, always leave it up to Sea Biscuit to make that kind of statement.

I'm not looking for that man, I'm just trying out a 'system' that will produce me a profit every week. To the point where I'll be doing this on 3-4 tracks a night... not monitoring it at all and checking the results in the morning.

Tom, I think we all believe what you are saying....Just say it...

Go to it....We are watching with great anticipation....Perhaps you "are" on the road to "fame and fortune"....I am rooting for your system...

Keep us posted....it's fun..

best,

[my_nameaintearl]

every system needs maintenance

but 353% ROI sounds like a great "Trial"

[beaucap]

Now..Now..mynameaintearl, how are we going to get new blood in the horse racing business, if your telling them that some races are fixed. Earl they're not fixed. Just because you lose a couple of races...right away you think they are fixed. Earl..and i know that aint your name..please explain to me and the other fine handicappers on this site how you can fix an 8 to 10 horse field? If i'm wrong i apologize.

[Tom-Oh]

Now..Now..mynameaintearl, how are we going to get new blood in the horse racing business, if your telling them that some races are fixed. Earl they're not fixed. Just because you lose a couple of races...right away you think they are fixed. Earl..and i know that aint your name..please explain to me and the other fine handicappers on this site how you can fix an 8 to 10 horse field? If i'm wrong i apologize.


Now now beacap, don't strangle the guy here, some races ARE fixed! Very few, and very rare, and when it happens, it's pretty obvious...

4 or more horses will go off stride, the pace setter who is set to win will gap 8-10 lengths off the rest of the field remaining... and it will usually be a horse that went from 25-1 at 2 MTP .. to 6-5 at the 0 MTP...

I've seen this at Yonkers before. I mean, it's rare. And never in any big time stakes races.

[headhawg]

Um... beaucap? Before your blood pressure goes up too much, read this and pay close attention to the bottom of the article. N.Y. Sun article (http://www.nysun.com/new-york/greatest-race-fixer-of-them-all/7761/)

[Tom-Oh]

Tonights Picks for the Trifecta Experiment - Yonkers - THURSDAY 9-10-09

Race 1... 5-6-8 box

Race 2... 3-4-6 box

Race 3... 5-6-7 box

Race 4... 2-6-5 box

Race 5... 1-4-6 box

Race 6... 1-5-6 box

Race 7... 1-3-5 box

Race 8... 1-7-8 box

Race 9... 1-4-6 box

Race 10... 2-5-8 box

Race 11... 4-5-6 box

My software was having trouble picking for races 12 & 13 so I'm just not playing them tonight, wish I could.

Wish me luck! Official picks for test number 2 of the Trifecta Experiment!

[my_nameaintearl]

Um... beaucap? Before your blood pressure goes up too much, read this and pay close attention to the bottom of the article. N.Y. Sun article (http://www.nysun.com/new-york/greatest-race-fixer-of-them-all/7761/)
lol.

[beaucap]

headhawg... that was many and i say many years ago. Just about everyone was a little devious back then. Today...and i mean within the past 5 years.. big brother is always watching. The trainers,drivers, and the jockeys are not all going to get together and fix a race for the small purses that most average tracks have. Hey....Just the way i see it.

[Tom-Oh]

headhawg... that was many and i say many years ago. Just about everyone was a little devious back then. Today...and i mean within the past 5 years.. big brother is always watching. The trainers,drivers, and the jockeys are not all going to get together and fix a race for the small purses that most average tracks have. Hey....Just the way i see it.
They don't do it for the purses... they have LARGE wagers placed on exotics before the race, and after they make it happen, they get someone else (not a jockey) to cash it in for them.

But this is wayyyyy off topic. Let's get back to the Trifecta Experiment shall we?

[Tom-Oh]

Race 8... 1-7-8 box


SORRY! RACE 8 WAS A MISTAKE!!!

The pick for Race 8 I meant to post was..

Race 8... 1-2-7

[my_nameaintearl]

Race 4... 2-6-5 box (2-6-5 $99.00)

Race 5... 1-4-6 box (6-1-4 $38.00)

[Tom-Oh]

Tonight's results... Night 2 of the Trifecta Experiment...

Race 4... 2-6-5 box (2-6-5 $99.00)

Race 5... 1-4-6 box (6-1-4 $38.00)

Total Investment: $66

Total Winnings: $68.75

ROI: 356% from beginning of experiment to now.

No big winners tonight, but yet the experiment reigns supreme, AGAIN! Finishing the night with a profit non the less.

Be back for Test 3 tomorrow night! We'll be playing Grand River, Hazel, or Yonkers... or maybe 2 of the 3, who knows?

Thanks for looking!

[PaceAdvantage]

Now now beacap, don't strangle the guy here, some races ARE fixed! Very few, and very rare, and when it happens, it's pretty obvious...

4 or more horses will go off stride, the pace setter who is set to win will gap 8-10 lengths off the rest of the field remaining... and it will usually be a horse that went from 25-1 at 2 MTP .. to 6-5 at the 0 MTP...

I've seen this at Yonkers before. I mean, it's rare. And never in any big time stakes races.I thought you were a rookie...

[PaceAdvantage]

They don't do it for the purses... they have LARGE wagers placed on exotics before the race, and after they make it happen, they get someone else (not a jockey) to cash it in for them.

But this is wayyyyy off topic. Let's get back to the Trifecta Experiment shall we?This sounds like "seasoned veteran" talk to me....:lol:

[melman]

Pace---He has to be a rookie, here he is posting in the harness section and talking about large wagers being cashed not by a JOCKEY. :jump:

[Tom-Oh]

Indeed I'm a rookie :) 18 years old and only been playing for a few months.

Tonights Picks for the Experiment Night 3!!

Hazel Park FRIDAY 9-11-09

Race 1... 1,2,3 box

Race 2... 1,3,7 box

Race 3... 4,5,6 box

Race 4... 4,5,7 box

Race 5... 5,6,7 box

Race 6... 2,4,7 box

Race 7... 1,2,8 box

Race 8... 7,9,10 box

Race 9... 4,5,6 box

Race 10... 5,7,9 box

Race 11... 2,4,7 box

Race 12... 1,2,8 box

Race 13... 3,5,6 box


Grand River Raceway FRIDAY 9-11-09

Race 1... 1,2,3 box

Race 2... 2,4,7 box

Race 3... 2,5,7 box

Race 4... 2,4,9 box

Race 5... 1,6,9 box

Race 6... 1,3,7 box

Race 7... 2,5,7 box

Race 8... 1,5,7 box

Race 9... 4,7,8 box

Race 10... 4,5,8 box

Race 11... 7,8,9 box

Wish me luck! We're playing both tracks FOR REAL TONIGHT !!

:)

[harness2008]

In all seriousness, good luck rookie. We need fresh blood with new ideas in this game.

[Tom-Oh]

Already hit a $73 Tri in the 2nd race at Hazel... long night to go!

[Tom-Oh]

Race 5 at Hazel the 5 horse was scratched...

So the new bet is..

Race 5... 4,6,7 box

[Tom-Oh]

Last night was our first unsuccessful night. We played 2 tracks for the first time and only hit 2 trifectas in total. And both were on Hazel... NOTHING at Grand River :faint: In total we invested $144 and came off the night with $119 approximately. Not a big loss, only $12.50 each between me and my dad.

We're going to play Hazel again tonight with this experiment, hopefully hit something big.

The experiment goes on!!

[MiJan]

Looks like you had a good start at Mohawk Sunday (only first 3 results posted this morning).

R1 - #5 win (2.70)
R2 - #1 win (6.50), exacta 1-5 (51.80), double 5-1 (10.60)
R3 - No

Good Luck.