Cardello's New Angle has some bite

[Shacopate]

Caught it twice today at Churchill.

5th race: $15.00
7th race: $18.40

But I noticed that both times the horses were dropping in class off the "improvement race." He doesn't mention that as a factor in his book, but I think he may be on to something here.

I guess it's only a matter of time before the general public catches this one. Get the prices while you can.

[delayjf]

Which angle would you be refering to? Haven't had a chance to read his book yet

[Zaf]

Just ordered it. This board has sparked my interest.

ZAFONIC

[hracingplyr]

yes i caught those also, i felt the book was excellent, i have caught some real bombs using that angle a couple of 50.00 horses at philly a few weeks back

[Fastracehorse]

What angle would that be??

I might already use it I might not - if U don't want to share I can't blame U.

:) :) :) :) :) :) :)

fffastt

[Shacopate]

It's basically a form cycle play. Good prices. I've got go right now, but I will post it tonight if someone doesn't beat me to it.

[railbird]

what is the name of the book????

[BETKING]

Is the name of the book "Speed to spare" ??

BETKING

[Shacopate]

The angle is called cyclers on page 51. It's a form cycle play that tries to predict peak performance, not unlike the "sheets."

It goes like this (a) big race or Beyer (b) bounce or poor performance. (c) recovery (a number higher than B, but not higher than A. In the middle is ideal. (d) READY FOR PEAK PERFORMANCE.

The Beyers might look like this in the DRF:

? -----------D. (todays race)
55----------C.
30----------B.
75----------A.

Nothing is automatic and the book points out that most horses don't have significant patterns. But the theory makes sense and I've seen it come in already (sometimes big) after only one day of looking for it. Grain of salt anyone!

This game is so dynamic with unlimited variables, and I think it is almost impossible for any angle to produce a positive ROI over the long term due to VARIANCE and the fact the prices will get lower and lower.

The real value of the angle is that it causes people to look beyond the LAST RACE BEYER and deeper into the past perfomances, hopefully gaining some insight as to what led up to that figure.

An even stronger play (but less pricey) is the top figure plus angle on page 21.

[Tom]

Yeah, the angles are pretty good. You have to look at the horses as always changing, not static machines. Every race wither helps or hurst them. This particular angle explains a lot of "surprise" winners for me. If you use the sheets, or sheet-style figs (BRIS pacegraph) you can easily see the pattern.
PA's longshot place horse had this pattern and figures to run a good number:

- 16
- 22
- 19
- 18
- 14
- 27
- 23

[JustRalph]

On the subject of projecting form cycle...... I played a little Lonestar tonight and used a few horses right out of the 'Speed to spare" numbers stuff we talked about last week. I was specifically looking for the horses that would regress based on the points in the book. Out of about 5 races.....the "new tops" that I could find.......all regressed. About 6 horses total. They were either new tops or 3 and out types with new tops or very near their tops. I had an 18 to1 shot run second too....right out of the book. 3rd back for what appears to be a new top for him. 3rd race back has always been my fav angle anyway. So.........maybe it is easier to see the horses that will regress.......oh yeah...about 3 of the regressing horses were favs at Post time. I didn't get rich or anything......but it sure looked more like the book than pimilico did last week.

[Shacopate]

Cardello also gives these warning signs (or reasons to stay away) from the angle.

1. Sharp drops in class.
2. The performance that you are projecting the horse to repeat
must be within the last 90 days. (otherwise you might be
dealing with a different horse.)
3. The horse must be at the right distance and on the proper
surface.
4. The number you are projecting must be competive with the
field that he is currently facing.

He also states that horses that improve off a "new top" usually do so between their 11th and 15th career starts.

[Fastracehorse]

<The real value of the angle is that it causes people to look beyond the LAST RACE BEYER and deeper into the past perfomances, hopefully gaining some insight as to what led up to that figure.

I'll add to Cardello: I do think like that but U never can be certain that the horse will repeat his best. However, if the horse shows trainer intent, such as: cutting back to the same distance he ran the big fig at - it will be a value play.

Here's a 16-1 shot at a B track.

1 mile 5000N1Y Beyer: 64----------1st
6f 7500 Beyer:44-----------7th
6f 7500 Beyer: 70 -------- 4th

It wasn't the same dist. as the 70 Beyer but the horse won at the dist. last year(1m).

fffastt

[Fastracehorse]

I also have a good-for-2 theory.

That is, once a trainer gets a horse good - he can be good right back - Maidens are very likely to show Cardello's angle - especially back east.

[Zaf]

Originally posted by Shacopate

The Beyers might look like this in the DRF:

? -----------D. (todays race)
55----------C.
30----------B.
75----------A.



I think I read something similar in either one of Quinn's or Litfin's books. The 55 would be called the recovery line and the horse under the right circumstances would be expected to move forward. Can anyone expand on this.

ZAFONIC

[Fastracehorse]

I've put alot of thought into this area of horse racing because I feel that if a horse player becomes versed in this area his insight will triple.

We all have pace and speed figs - or alot of us do - and we all have angles. But these tools are negligible if the animal's form is poor.

Hence, my current working theories - some well established.

Alot of predicting form is understanding what a horse needs - and Cardello's angle is something that I already do.

I have adjusted figs of horses' races - they are much more accurate than the Beyer in many circumstances and because of this I have seen many patterns by many trainers.

Usually a horse poised for a good effort also has a trainer intention tagged to it - eg., blinks on or FTLasix.

The more of these tags the better - because the trainer could be putting blinks on just because he wants the horse to do something different - and Lasix can sometimes be a bad sign - it gets complex - but I hope to clear some of the ambiguities up with my study.

Here is a neat example of trainer intent at Woodbine: the trainer enters the horse for a claiming N3L event when he is still eligible for N2L. The horse wins by a length by pressing from the outside. So next start he is entered for N3L again. People may think he would bounce - but really think about it.

Before the horse wins his first race I can forgive the skeptics - the horse is a shipper - an unknown - maybe the N3L race is just a prep or a form darkeining race - who knows??

But after the fact U have to entertain the thought that the trainer knew he was big - why the entry in N3L?? Now, how big is he?? He probably won't bounce because that race wouldn't take much out of him - and probably he saved horse in the first victory - hiding his ability.

Well those entertained thoughts are giddy but U have to admit Zafonic - there are many situations that won't subscribe to a popular theory but are more like a puzzle.

We just have to get practiced at this game - that is if U enjoy the intellectual challenge.

:) :) :) :) :) :) :)

fffastt

[Fastracehorse]

Shacopate and gang - this was a great thread.

Whoops.

:o :o :o :o :o :o :o

fffastt

[BETKING]

Will this angle work using the Bris Speed Figs? Has anyone tried these numbers?

BETKING

[Zaf]

Very good insights FFFASTT,

I came across an interesting article by Mark Cramer. He talks about not looking for the horse with the best figs, but the ones that are most eligible to improve. I was wondering what you might think of it :

http://www.gambleinparadise.com./articlex14.html

ZAFONIC

[Shacopate]

Yes.

BRIS figs will work fine. If a horse runs a good race; Beyer, BRIS
and all the others will reflect it. Likewise for a poor performance.

[andicap]

As someone who has read the Ragozin book and listened to a few of the tapes, I would advise caution on people's parts in interpreting "recovery" lines.
I would advise going to www.thesheets.com, there are several examples on the site of what are and aren't true recovery lines.

Not every line that looks like a recovery line is actually a true one.

1) the "recovery" line could be too good and induce another short-term downward blip in the horse's figures. I hesitate to use the word "bounce" in this instance. It just means that the horse ran an effort within a few points of its top and that took something out of the horse -- in these instances Ragozin advises waiting about 4 weeks (less for younger horses) before jumping back in.

2) For lightly-raced 3 and 4 year-olds, a "recovery" line might be downright negative. For these horses, Ragozin wants to see an effort a little bit better than the previous top and then give the horse 3 weeks or so.

3) Even with a true recovery line horses don't always fire the first time around. Sometimes it takes 2 or 3 efforts. You do,however, have to know when to fold 'em and those answers are on the tapes.(Caution: in many instances, he himself doesn't have the answer; it's unclear wheter a line is paving the way for something better or was too good and will set the horse back. He usually lets the odds determine what to do.)

4) The toughest part is to interpret if a horses effort was good enough to qualify for a recovery line or was just another random medicore race.
This is way sheet analysts looking at the same data will argue over what it means and come to different results.

I don't use the sheets (too pricey and they don't use pace) but many of Ragozin's form cycle theories are worth exploring.

[Fastracehorse]

The sheets have some good ideas but they aren't the end all.

There are more interesting theories out there than pure recovery lines.

fffastt

[Shacopate]

My hobby within the hobby is learning new approaches to the game. I read everything I can get my hands on. These tapes sound a bit like Quinn, but I would be very interested in purchasing them. Do you know if (and where) they might be available? Or would you be interested in selling yours?

One of my goals is to create an accurate TURF variant to include extended rails and speed of surface, but I think that Miss America has a better chance for world peace.

I'm sure that the "sheets" are hit and miss, but I would love to learn the full theory behind it.

[andicap]

Fast,

I agree with you. I'm just passing along info, not saying I agree with everything they say. Even Ragozin says it's all probabilities which means it doesn't work all the time-- they just play the odds. They look for higher priced horses that show these lines figuring they can be wrong 3 out of 4 or 4 out of 5 and still come out ahead.

Shac..
Go to www.thesheets.com. Tapes are cheap,plus shipping.
THey are fascinating listening even if you don't agree with it all.

Those of you in NYC can go by Raggies office on 12th street and get them in person.

[midnight]

The last third of Ragozin's book "The Odds Must Be Crazy" isn't bad either. To get to it, though, you have to wade through the first two-thirds, which is a life's history of him and "the Sheets". Of course the book is one long commercial for same. It's out of print, but you can probably find a used copy. Be prepared to wear ear plugs when reading, though, since the man blows his trumpet nonstop throughout.

[andicap]

I liked the book, but it left a lot of questions unanswered about his methods -- doesn't really do a good job explaining recovery lines for example and talking about intervening patterns.
The toughest part of figuring form cycles are interpreting those races in between the tops and the bottoms.
Was an intervening race a "recovery line?" Or just a random race as part of a long non-descript form cycle where the horse meanders 3-6 points below its top?
How long do you stay with a horse that shows a supposed recovery line? They sometimes don't show the good race for 3 months -- one race after you have given up.
Did a race that was close to the top take too much out of the horse and set him back again for 3-6 weeks?
What's the optimum intervening pattern for horses who come off a top or near-top if you want to tell if the horse will cycle back to his good numbers?
In the book he never explains explicity and even on the tapes he and Len Friedman talk about whether an intervening pattern is good or not in the examples, but never spell out exactly what you want to see.
I think for them there are so many variables in the patterns that they can't spell out all the scenarios. They say you have to look at hundreds or thousands of races to get a feel for much of it.

Again, not necessarily my opinion on the subject, just passing along what I know of the Sheets theory and teachings.

[Fastracehorse]

<doesn't really do a good job explaining recovery lines for example and talking about intervening patterns

Most likely because he doesn't know.

Everything useful I have gained Andi has been on my own.

Diet fad programs are much the same as the programs our handicapping authors bring to us - there is no magic bullet in books - only in research.

fffastt

[Shacopate]

Andicap,

In the fifth at Churchill today (29 May) #11 Head For The Hills
had what I think might be the strongest pattern for the Cardello angle.

D. Today (wins by 5 and pays 16.80)
C. 48 (solid recovery, close to middle)
B. 34 (hard bounce)
A. 59 (new top)


Fffast,

I think sometimes you can take what is already out there and use it to "build a better mouse trap."

[andicap]

Originally posted by Fastracehorse@DRF
<doesn't really do a good job explaining recovery lines for example and talking about intervening patterns

Most likely because he doesn't know.

Everything useful I have gained Andi has been on my own.

Diet fad programs are much the same as the programs our handicapping authors bring to us - there is no magic bullet in books - only in research.

fffastt

Tom Hambleton once told me in effect, "Trust but verify."
That is, don't believe anything but your own eyes.

That's a good philosophy to live by in general. Although Chico Marx did once say, "Who you gonna believe, me or your own eyes?"

[Gekish]

fffastt,

The Cardello horse at CD won paid 16.80.
Same day at AP 8th race Plaiyitagain Leo won 27.00 and in the 8th at Pimlico Tio Cavito ran 2nd at 11-1.
This is not a mechanical angle but with a little digging it could work. Will be watching.

[andicap]

Originally posted by Shacopate
Andicap,

In the fifth at Churchill today (29 May) #11 Head For The Hills
had what I think might be the strongest pattern for the Cardello angle.

D. Today (wins by 5 and pays 16.80)
C. 48 (solid recovery, close to middle)
B. 34 (hard bounce)
A. 59 (new top)




That seems very strong since 3 beyer pts generally equal 1 Sheets point, Head for Hills recovered to a point ABOUT 3-4 pts off his top, enough to signify a recovery but not so much that he was set back or knocked out a bit.

of course it's not an exact science and usually you let the odds board decide what to do in close shaves. that's the theory at least -- not proven by me with extensive research.

[Shacopate]

I think we should contact the DRF website and suggest that they add ANGLE WATCH as one of their options for subscribers.;)

[Gekish]

Shacopate,

What has the DRF done for anybody ever.

Meanwhile on the 30th in the Western edition of DRF I found about 3-4 Cardello ponies at 5-1 or better.
One winner at BM 3rd Bold N Old 14.00.

76
70
79 = 2003 high
5 horse field only 1 horse looked good, Key Document. Ran with the winner on 4-26 and was beaten by 4 lenghts.
Will keep watching. Soon as I start to play the angle will die.