OFF SLOWLY AT BELMONT

[IRISHLADSTABLE]

COULDN'T WAIT TO LEAVE AQUDUCT AND GET TO BELMONT .

I'M HAVING A TOUGH GO OF IT . AFTER TWO WEEKS OF THE MEET

I HAVE A WINNING PERCENT OF 14% (15-105) I HAVE A IN THE

MONEY PERCENTAGE OF 50% 105 STARTS 15 WINS 27 PLACES

AND 11 SHOWS .

HOW IS EVERY ONE ELSE DOING ?

JIMMY / ILS

[cj]

I'm doing decent at Belmont, in the black. The key to Belmont that I think most people overlook is that it is THE MOST speed favoring track in the country, of the larger tracks at least. Despite its size and wide sweeping turns, speed rules.

(PS...one horse I won with at Belmont today, picked him in the contest, I still don't believe won. I watched the race and the replay 3 times, and I still can't see the 6 getting up in the second race. Even Durkin gave the nod to the 1.)

CJ

[Fastracehorse]

<(PS...one horse I won with at Belmont today, picked him in the contest, I still don't believe won. I watched the race and the replay 3 times, and I still can't see the 6 getting up in the second race. Even Durkin gave the nod to the 1.)

You deserve it - U are a hoss player.

fffastt

[Fastracehorse]

<(PS...one horse I won with at Belmont today, picked him in the contest, I still don't believe won. I watched the race and the replay 3 times, and I still can't see the 6 getting up in the second race. Even Durkin gave the nod to the 1.)

You deserve it - U are a hoss player.

fffastt

[cj]

faassstttt,

You can say that again...wait, you already did! Thanks fast, you've grown on me, even before the nice post...:)

CJ

[John]

Craig,
When you say that Belmont is "Speed Favoring" Do you mean Early speed or Beyer speed ratings..Please explain to me....
Thanks

[cj]

I mean early speed...in dirt races at Belmont, you have to be on or near the lead, it is the same way every year. Occasionally the Belmont "dead rail" will creep up, but then its just outside speed winning instead of speed.

CJ

[John]

Craig,

Dont you find that to be untrue at 7 furlongs on the dirt and maidens going 1 1/6 on dirt. I do....I have no stats to prove it.

[cj]

7 furlongs is only slightly less speed favoring than the shorter distances at Belmont, but compared to other tracks, speed is still more important regarding position and lengths back.

As for the Maiden races, I can't answer, I don't break my races down by class.

CJ

[Observer]

Originally posted by cjmilkowski
(PS...one horse I won with at Belmont today, picked him in the contest, I still don't believe won. I watched the race and the replay 3 times, and I still can't see the 6 getting up in the second race. Even Durkin gave the nod to the 1.)

CJ

CJ .. I know the race you're referring to .. The winner was Have a Herat by a whisker over Sleep Away in the 2nd on Thursday. That was definitely a tight photo, and was a tough call by the eye .. to me .. it reminded me of the finish of Victory Gallop's Belmont .. it never really seemed like Victory Gallop got there, but on the wire, he got his nose down to edge Real Quiet from winning the Triple Crown. Kinda the same thing today .. Have a Herat by the luck of the bob was the winner of a very, very tight photo.

[kenwoodall]

Belmont 1st week was fast- then slow, this week is ok. I do ok across the board generally.

[Kentucky Bred]

Far be it for me to challenge this board which I have noted respect for, but I always considered Belmont to offer a fair opportunity to those playing closers due to the wide sweeping far turn and long stretch.

Having to fight speed advantages on so many racetracks, I always breathe a sigh of relief when Belmont comes because I have a shot a some fair prices without fighting the heavy bias.

Now, you've even taken Belmont away from me?? (LOL) What is next...Churchill Downs??

Kentucky Bred

[gonatas]

Speed is pretty much the key at all American tracks. I think the main thing to look for at Belmont is the outside posts. A lot of horseplayers routinely disregard rail horses running out of chutes. I pretty much look at all the races at Belmont this way.

Any horse with enough tactical speed to get a good position stalking from the outside is going to have the advantage most of the time at Belmont.

[Zaf]

American Dirt Racing is Early Speed.

If you want closers , play the grass.

ZAFONIC

[John]

zafonic

You know Guys, Someone should say something about "Zafonic"

I love his one - line comment.They are short and to the point. Most of all there is a humor in his one-liners. I laugh at most of them. Keep the funny lines coming Zafonic. I for one enjoy them.

[Fastracehorse]

It seems that most of us here are speed players, fine.

That is because we've all had lone speed types score for us at fine odds, fine.

It is difficult to imagine races unfolding from the back and easier to predict who will get the front.

So 1) We all scored on speed and 2) we all find it easier to find speed so that's why we are blinded to the fact that it is the tactical types that win most often.

How do I know this?? - records. I have literally thousands of posts on DRF and my 2nd choice is beating my first choice - not by just a little but by about 25%.

And I can only assume, that because I am speed oriented handicapper - that the raters are beating my best choice (at an astounding rate).

One of the reasons for this is that the speed uses alot of energy early, and the raters use less, and hence, have more kick late.

Sure, the speed hangs on alot, but what I am saying despite this, is that the raters get the speed more than the speed gets the raters.

:mad: :mad: :mad: :mad: :mad: :mad: :mad:

fffastt

[gonatas]

Actually, I think most of us would define "speed" as any horse within striking distance of the leader rather than as the leader only.

"One dimensional speed" usually needs a favorable pace setup and deep closers almost always do. Tactical speed has more options and is the higher percentage play for that reason.

Tactical speed that gets hung out wide on tighter turns at other tracks probably does better at Belmont because the turns are not such a big deal. The longer run to the turn in one turn Belmont routes also gives the tactical speed more time to get positon before the turn.

[John]

gonatos

If what you say is true with Tactical horses....Then Daily racing form,speed rating and track variant should be a good indicator.
Yes or no....

[gonatas]

Thats not where I would look Rocajack. Tactical speed types can usually be found in the running lines. They are the horses that can lay within 2 or 3 lengths of the pace at todays distance or shorter. They also need to demonstrate some ability to rate. Obviously their speed figures need to be competitive too.

[Fastracehorse]

I think Gonatas hit it on the head - look at the lengths from leader in DRF - if they are within 4 lengths of the leader and they aren't always caught wide - they are versatile stalkers.

fffastt