bisket's saratoga play sat 6/5

[bisket]

ahh saturday afternoon in up state new york wish i could there
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8UPmEFPr7hc&feature=related

[bisket]

the key to this race is to decide about kaper lake and base commander's race 7/30. the other key decision is how does americanrevolution's class fit into the picture. i've found that a sprinter usually couples two peak performances together and falls off significantly afterward, and this is my reasoning for dropping kaper lake. now base commander is on his second race of this same form cycle, and he was closing slightly on kaper lakes new 3 year best time for 6 furs on the dirt in that race. i gotta feelin kaper is gonna be hit hard at the windows, and i can make some cake on this one!!! so who do we like other than amer rev and base. dwild affair figures to be in the mix and check it twice as well
3/2,9/2,4,6,9
win bet on base commander. amount to be determined at race time

[bisket]

maidens with a number first time starters. in just we trust ran a nice even 5 1/2 furs last out off the turf. that translates to a good 7 fur performance. we'll bet him to win amouint will be determined at race time. we may box an exacta with 3 horses if its worthwhile according to the odd. the other two are the two ap indy's in here. volition and keeneland breeze.
:3: to win and maybe
:3: - :8: - :9: ? exacta box

[bisket]

two look to step up according to their form cycle and connections. thats etincelle and toocleverfor words, and goldoro has been knocking on the door. i can't really find a reason to seperate these so this looks like a good spot for a tri box. we may throw some coin on the nose of one of these 3 but we'll wait until race time for that decision!!
1$ tri box
:1: - :3: - :7:

[bisket]

i will say looking at toocleverforwords she did her third 1/4 last out in 23 4/5 and then was 5 wide on the turn to finsh 4 th she definately will get some coin on her nose!! :ThmbUp:

[bisket]

2$ tri wheel :3: / :2: , :9: / :2: , :4: , :7: , :9:
3$ win 3 base commander
the 6 was scratched so we put the 7 in the wheel
i may bump the win bet closer to race time if odds on base go up

[bisket]

2$ exacta wheel
:3: / :8: , :9:

[bisket]

3$ exacta
:8: , :3:
3$ win :8:

[senortout]

i will say looking at toocleverforwords she did her third 1/4 last out in 23 4/5 and then was 5 wide on the turn to finsh 4 th she definately will get some coin on her nose!! :ThmbUp:

she may be a good bet but those fractions were 2 races back, and she didn't survive them!

senortout

[bisket]

1$ tri box
:1: - :3: - :7:

[bisket]

that was her last at saratoga and heres her fractions
48 23 and 4 24 and 3 and closed last fur in 11 and 3 so if she wasn't 5 wide that would been 12's the first mile amd still closing in 11 and 3. i think she improves off that! waiting to see odds but she getting on her nose

[bisket]

good deal they're hitting doro hard and 3 is up to 6-1 i'm starting to wonder if doro likes second!!!!!!
10$ win :3:

[bisket]

anothe rside light the 1's comment says belatedly. she didn't change leads last out until the jock made her. this is why i'm hitting the 3 hard

[bisket]

what the heck was she doing so close to the pace at 22 and change. it one of those days so far!!

[senortout]

what the heck was she doing so close to the pace at 22 and change. it one of those days so far!!

It could be one of those days!

I bet a small amt. on the #2 in that race....she was supposed to lay quite well off the pace and close like gangbusters...take a look at her....yet she was head and head for the lead throughout and held on for 3rd...so go figure....luck the rest of the day to you.

senortout

[bisket]

thanks same to ya!
theres a bunch in this that apears to be evenly matched. i'm gonna go with two who i think form wise may be in the best shape. i like akilina and ms stilleto. we'll box those two ina 2$ exacta. we may put some money on their nose, but i'll decide that race time.
2$ ex box
:2: - :6:

[bisket]

3$ win :2: and :6:

[senortout]

just for conversation I bet the #3 in here

[senortout]

nasty beat there.....I cashed my show bet hope you placed the #2....I posted here and then when I went back all I saw was the stretch run...to close to post time...was the 10 ever involved...up front....if so shoulda taken something outta the winner.....will watch the replay...

senortout

[bisket]

you coulda thrown a blanket over the 2,3,4,6,7,8. it just depended how the race went and racing luck for any of these to win. pace was slow and they let the leader walk through 3/4's. so she won. some races just throw a dart and take your chances. thats why it was just an ex box and win bets. to many variables

[bisket]

i only bet win bets and ex and tri's

[senortout]

just watched the replay and Karakorum Fugitive...the ten....jockey like to broke his neck taking him off the pace....and finished nowhere.....whoda thunk?

[bisket]

1$ tri box
:1: - :9: - :10:
3$ win :10:

[senortout]

I used the 9....shied from the 1......would lean to the 5 if pushed

[bisket]

i'm not that familiar with lezcano, but in my opinion manhandling a horse like that is not the way to get a horse to rate. thats why i like prado. he's got nice soft hands and can usually convince a horse to slow down without yanking on them. that probably what killed me the race before when he let my horse run so close to the fast pace

[bisket]

10$ win :3:
2$ ex box :3: - :11:

[bisket]

copper cascade has raced against better. he's closed in better than 30 last 2 races at monmouth. he's a steal at those odds. auteur has some decent races to his credit at this level

[senortout]

copper cascade has raced against better. he's closed in better than 30 last 2 races at monmouth. he's a steal at those odds. auteur has some decent races to his credit at this level

bingo! we're on the same horse...and never worry about lezcano...he must've been riding to orders on Karakorum Fugitive....and not likin' it much better'n the nag....

[senortout]

There's strength in numbers, my friend.....the Copper Flash sure put em away!

senortout


oh and nice score...your money in the right place there!

[bisket]

the 11 was really suckin wind that last 1/16, but the 3 came through for us!!!!! back to even or close to it for the day

[bisket]

i really like the :3: alex le great here. those are some superb works for fair hills. he's definately ready to win first out.
10$ win :3: have exacta in a little bit

[bisket]

2$ ex box
:3: - :10:
the story of gun rocks last race is he missed the break. doesn't say anything in comment, but just watched the replay.

[senortout]

quick bloodline tale...#1...2nd dam graded stakes placed
#2 dam graded stakes placed
#4 dam a grade 1 winner
#5 by A.P. Indy, dam won minor stakes awards
#6 2nd dam mother of Holy Bull
#8 dam a 1/2 to Funny Cide
#9 2nd dam graded stakes placed
#10 dam, unraced, was a 1.7 million sale purchase
#11...not much on dam side
#12 ..ditto

oh and I am shying from Afleet Alex offspring for the time being

[bisket]

i don't think alex changed leads or he wouldn't leave the rail in the stretch for some odd reason. maidens :rolleyes: watcha gonna do. gun rock wasn't worth a win bet, but he won. he spotted the field about 5 lengths last out so its no suprise.

[bisket]

there was a thread about unraced mares i posted on. you know unraced mares for some reason spit out the best horses. why? who knows but it is a fact

[senortout]

Chances are good they are not quite so heavily 'roided....seriously....

[bisket]

most think its the fact they weren't medicated constantly. i believe that is part of it.

[bisket]

i like the :11: presto change o. i think the track will play to his strengths today. i'll box him with the :4: bz warrior.
3$ ex box
:4: - :11:
5$ win :4: and :11:

[bisket]

tri box
:2: - :4: - :11:
win bets 4$ all three

[bisket]

this next race i really like kodiak cowboy. jones stated last out that kodiak was running that race to prepare for this one, and this race looks to set up perfectly for him :ThmbUp: . we'll put together an exotic with him on top as a single :cool:

[bisket]

my disdain for pyro goes back to when he was beyers wonderboy on the derby trail last year. i've played him once in the northern dancer last year at churchill. his only distance i like him at is 1 1/16 mile. that coupled with i think saroor can't train a lick leaves him in the back of the pack imop. so he doesn't even make the tri for me. in think the odds will be long on both the place and show horse so my variations for the tri and exacta are large. here it is
tri wheel
:2: / :3: , :4: , :7: , :12: / :3: , :4: , :7: , :12:
ex wheel
:2: / :3: , :4: , :7: , :12:
no win bet which is why the bigger tickets for the tri and ex

[bisket]

first time he beat me!!!!!! guess i had one coming :faint:

[bisket]

i handicapped this race last night. don't see any of these beating rachel so all i'm playing is a 5$ tri wheel
:3: / :4: , :6: / :4: , :6:

[WinterTriangle]

Holy cow, Rachel just tossed Borel

[WinterTriangle]

Rachel by a nose! 22 and change!

Macho almost got her :eek:

[WinterTriangle]

Rachel by a nose! 22 and change!

Macho almost got her :eek:
:)
sorry about the nose part. clearly I wasn't watching from right angle. She was well ahead

[Slew]

Zenyatta can not beat this horse...

Good lord she as got a BIG heart..!!

That was against older males folks....

[bisket]

46 and change and macho is there every time. asiatic failed me. rachel ran a good race inspight of going that fast the first 1/4.