Beaten lengths

[AAcoolguy]

Does anyone know, is it even possible to know, how many BRIS Prime Power points to a beaten length? Or how many lengths would equal 1 BRIS Prime Power point?

[raybo]

Does anyone know, is it even possible to know, how many BRIS Prime Power points to a beaten length? Or how many lengths would equal 1 BRIS Prime Power point?

Certainly, B/Ls are part of the Prime Power formula, but only a portion. As you must know, Prime Power includes class, speed, pace, form, weight, distance, and who knows what else. It also depends on more than one race for it's calculation, "most recent races" is the terminology that Bris states.

So, I doubt that one could apply points per B/L to this composite figure.

[bisket]

a little piece of advise. if you don't know EXACTLY how a speed fig is arrived at; totally disregard it until you know how the fig is comprised!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[ryesteve]

a little piece of advise. if you don't know EXACTLY how a speed fig is arrived at; totally disregard it until you know how the fig is comprised!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!I don't buy that. If you go to a restaurant, do you need to know the recipes to decide whether or not the food tastes good?

Many people use software in which the developers have included proprietary ratings, the derivation of which they rightfully keep to themselves. But that doesn't stop the users from assessing the value in these ratings and using them accordingly. A speed fig is no different.

[bisket]

if i don't know how the fig is comprised than i don't know how to analyze it. its just that simple. this why i don't use beyers as a speed fig. some of its makeup is subjective in nature. although i do trust beyers handicapping ability so i do give it some weight. incidentally that probably the only fig i do look at. other than the track variant in the form

[ryesteve]

if i don't know how the fig is comprised than i don't know how to analyze it.Why not? If you're looking at whatever-fig and you see that the ones with the highest number show a flat-bet profit in a large sample, there, you've made an analysis. I think you're confusing the word "analysis" with "making a subjective judgment of value based on what I know about a fig"

[Dave Schwartz]

Gotta agree with Steve. The way to use such a fig is to study its performance to determine what you want to know.

With a large enough sample, you can discover the answer you are looking for.




Regards,
Dave Schwartz

[Tom Barrister]

Does anyone know, is it even possible to know, how many BRIS Prime Power points to a beaten length? Or how many lengths would equal 1 BRIS Prime Power point?

Approximately 0.85

[nobeyerspls]

Does anyone know, is it even possible to know, how many BRIS Prime Power points to a beaten length? Or how many lengths would equal 1 BRIS Prime Power point?

Among the myriad of problems with digitizing the performance of an equine athelete is beaten lengths. What effort was the horse displaying at the end of the race? Did the jockey know that 2nd was impossible and 3rd was wrapped up, thus easing his horse in the last twenty yards? Fifteen beaten lengths could have been ten if he kept trying. What about the runner who is 4th to three going head to head at the end. If they are all out and he is a lumbering spectator, what do the lengths between them mean? Then there's the one that rears at the start, spotting the field ten lengths before rushing up and fading. Even if he loses by a pole, the significant even was that he blew the break, not the lengths beaten.

[bisket]

you guys are why i'm in the black all the time :p

[FenceBored]

you guys are why i'm in the black all the time :p

You're welcome! Want to take us all to some place nice for dinner sometime to really say thanks?:jump:

[bisket]

You're welcome! Want to take us all to some place nice for dinner sometime to really say thanks?:jump:
i like you sense of humor!! finally somebody gets da bisket :jump:

[markgoldie]

There seems to be a slight misinterpretation viv-a-vis the original question and the discussion over figs. Bris provides a final speed number (aka. fig) for each horse in each race. In addition, Bris provides a Prime Power number. The PP number has only a loose connection to the fig(s) of the horse and as was mentioned, it incorporates many other handicapping factors.

It is very probable that the fig number has a 1-1 relationship as to beaten lengths in the race because it is a number derived from final speed and adjusted only for the track surface overall speed bias for the given day.

On the other hand, numbers found in "The Sheets" and "Thorograph" numbers also incorporate lost lengths due to trip. These numbers, then, would not be adjustable from horse-to-horse strictly on a beaten-lenghts' comparison.

However, even though we have seen this question asked and answered before, I'm never really sure of the relevance. You obviously have the fig numbers as published. Are you looking to do some sort of adjustment on the assumption that the beaten-lengths metric being used is somehow wrong? If so, you are still starting with the published number so even if you adjust the number, their relationship will remain the same. IMO, you'd be better off looking at more meaningful adjustments to the number, such as the pace of the race or the class in which it was earned.

[markgoldie]

Clarification of my last post. When I said "1-1 basis," I did not mean one length = 1 fig point. What I meant was that whatever the metric, it can be applied universally in the same manner.

[raybo]

I guess I wasn't clear enough in my reply. The speed fig, and pace figs already have had B/Ls applied to them, at different points per length (speed fig uses a sliding scale while pace figs use fixed pts. per length, no matter what the distance covered).

It is my reasoning that Bris had speed points and pace points before they came up with the prime power rating, which would logically lead me to an assumption that they are using these speed and pace points, which already include B/Ls, rather than reusing raw times and B/Ls to calculate prime power, along with other factors as well.

The figure "0.85" was posted, without any justification on how that figure was arrived at, so I wouldn't know whether that figure could actually be used or not.

I too, do not use anyone's speed figs, pace figs, class figs, form figs, etc., as I prefer to work from call and finish times and derive my own interpretation of the quality of the animals, their form, and the effort delivered during any particular race or fraction of a race.

There are just too many times that published figures don't jive, many times they aren't even close to being right.

So, I'll roll my own.

[ryesteve]

However, even though we have seen this question asked and answered before, I'm never really sure of the relevance.Agreed... I guess some people can't handle what seems like an abstraction to them, and they need to convert it into something to which they can relate.

[markgoldie]

Raybo: No. Your post was clear and correct. Tom Barrister mentioned a .85 lengths' metric applied to the original quote. This was wrong since the original quote dealt with the Bris PP number. The PP number incorporates so many different factors that simply applying a beaten-lengths' metric will lead you to a meaningless mish-mosh since you have no idea of the varying weights of the other factors being used. Then others started talking immediately about figs as if that were the original question. So my post was basically an expansion on yours. ;) :)

Mark

[AAcoolguy]

Agreed... I guess some people can't handlewhat seems like an abstraction to them, and they need to convert it into something to which they can relate.

You are correct in assuming I would like something to relate an abstract number to something that makes more sense to me. I have read the BRIS article about the use of the number, and I am talking about the Prime Power numbers not the speed or pace figs, and although there is no mention of lengths per point for the Prime Power number I thought someone here might have figured it out.
I guess some people just need a different reference to understand fully. Thank you for understanding.

[fmolf]

i might be getting a bit off topic but i only use beaten lengths to calculate ability times and pinpoint when in a race a horse has made a big move.Some trainers use races as workouts for a race further down the line and beaten lengths analysis helps tell the story.As far as jocks wrapping up horses that can only be truly analyzed by watching the races.Some trainers believe that by wrapping up the horse before the wire during a race your sending the horse the wrong message..who knows?

[JeremyJet]

I don't buy that. If you go to a restaurant, do you need to know the recipes to decide whether or not the food tastes good?

Many people use software in which the developers have included proprietary ratings, the derivation of which they rightfully keep to themselves. But that doesn't stop the users from assessing the value in these ratings and using them accordingly. A speed fig is no different.

Some guys would rather you not know how they cook up their figures. Especially the ones that have one length equal to 1 point at all distances.

Regards,

JeremyJet

[bisket]

if you don't know how the fig is arrived at its worthless. :lol: i know who's gonna win the next race.....trust me :rolleyes:

[Tom Barrister]

Raybo: No. Your post was clear and correct. Tom Barrister mentioned a .85 lengths' metric applied to the original quote. This was wrong since the original quote dealt with the Bris PP number. The PP number incorporates so many different factors that simply applying a beaten-lengths' metric will lead you to a meaningless mish-mosh since you have no idea of the varying weights of the other factors being used. Then others started talking immediately about figs as if that were the original question. So my post was basically an expansion on yours. ;) :)

Mark

It's not wrong. One Prime Power point equates to approximately 0.85 lengths.

[AAcoolguy]

Thanks Tom. You never know what you're going to start by asking a simple question.:ThmbUp: