LONG TERM CAPITAL PLAYS 09-05-2009

[formula_2002]

9/5/2009
GAME IS FOR FUN ONLY
http://longtermcapitalwinner.homestead.com/
N155>=25 .and. N157>=2, field size >=7
bankroll = n192, start with $749
bet multiplier =(.015/(1/n228)*10)
bet size =multiplier X bankroll

double bet when
val(n228)>=.5.and.val(n202)>=2.or.val(n228)<.5.and.val(n202)<2
prior to placing bet , inspect win pool $ to insure bet size does not change payout by 3 cents or more
max win pool bet seems to be about , winpool prior to takeout x .005

TRACK RACE # PGNO NAME ML POST TIME N155 N157 MULTIPLIER N228 FIELD SIZE
CRC 1 1 FLANKERS LAD 3.00 12:40 40.555 0.13 0.850 6
SUF 2 7 MILLENNIUM D 4.00 1:12 30.014 0.08 0.526 8
TDN 3 7 ROADSTEROLIO 1.40 2:00 42.339 0.11 0.739 8
PHA 5 2 NORJAC 2.50 2:04 26.307 0.09 0.616 7
FLX 4 5 FEDERAL DEPO 2.50 2:31 30.701 0.10 0.686 8
FLX 5 2 TALLY ME OUT 1.00 2:58 29.538 0.07 0.444 10
WOX 6 14 NAKAYAMA ARA 10.00 3:24 33.538 0.08 0.544 14
FLX 8 5 EARLY RESPON 0.50 4:19 38.079 0.09 0.583 9
TDN 13 9 COME OVER AG 5.00 5:20 28.974 0.07 0.449 12
SAR 12 2B DAY TRIPPI 8.00 6:55 33.173 0.06 0.392 16

[formula_2002]

Calder - Race 1
# Win Place Show
2 $6.00 $4.00 $2.60
4 . $10.80 $4.60
1 . . $2.40

[markgoldie]

Hey Joe;
My post of yesterday mis-read your caveat about the bet size altering the price. I thought it was 3% and you actually say 3 cents. Three cents!? The house breakage on a minimum $2 wager is usually rounded to the nearest 20 cents. So why would we worry about 3 cents when that amount will very rarely affect the payout? That, plus the expansion of the pool after any possible bet can be made would seem to make this parameter totally unnecessary.

Again, I'd drop the caveat and just roll with your bet size, whatever it is supposed to be. I'm sure you'll get better results that way.

[formula_2002]

Hey Joe;
My post of yesterday mis-read your caveat about the bet size altering the price. I thought it was 3% and you actually say 3 cents. Three cents!? The house breakage on a minimum $2 wager is usually rounded to the nearest 20 cents. So why would we worry about 3 cents when that amount will very rarely affect the payout? That, plus the expansion of the pool after any possible bet can be made would seem to make this parameter totally unnecessary.

Again, I'd drop the caveat and just roll with your bet size, whatever it is supposed to be. I'm sure you'll get better results that way.
NY and some other tracks break on 5 cents, other tracks a dime.

3 cents is not cast in stone. you just dont want to make your bet turn a
1.82 payout into a 1.79
in a dime breakage track the 1.82 has 2 cents breakage and the 1.79 has 9 cent breakage. that 3 cent difference cost you 9 cents
In a nickle breakage track, the 1.79 has 4 cent breakage.

[formula_2002]

FINALS.
MERCY WAS WITH US WHEN 2 RACES DID NOT QUALIFY DUE TO FIELD SIZE, AND AGAIN WHEN 1 HORSE SCRATCHED

3 ODDS ON FAVS WON.
BUT THERE WERE 7 PLAYS
LOST $3 FLAT BETTING.

TURNED A STARTING $753 STRUCTURED BET BR INTO $468