One Hellava losing streak

[Ray2000]

I know some people reading this post will say "He's just bragging" or "How do we know it's true." but so be it. The reason is to show how much of a setback one can expect (and be prepared for) when playing this game.

The chart shows the daily balance on computer's straight Exacta bets on select races at many different tracks, from Jan 05 to Sep 09. Something drastic seems to have occurred in Oct of 08, finally pulling out of the dive in March of this year. I've spent countless hours trying to figure out what happened, what changed, and had to come to the conclusion that it's just a statistical anomaly. One that cost me $1600 (based on 2$ tkts) and almost made me throw the computer into the beaver pond.:)

[botster]

I know some people reading this post will say "He's just bragging" or "How do we know it's true." but so be it. The reason is to show how much of a setback one can expect (and be prepared for) when playing this game.

The chart shows the daily balance on computer's straight Exacta bets on select races at many different tracks, from Jan 05 to Sep 09. Something drastic seems to have occurred in Oct of 08, finally pulling out of the dive in March of this year. I've spent countless hours trying to figure out what happened, what changed, and had to come to the conclusion that it's just a statistical anomaly. One that cost me $1600 (based on 2$ tkts) and almost made me throw the computer into the beaver pond.:)

Firstly, Ray I am NOT one of those people who believe you are posting phantom stats or bragging.I see what you accomplish on a daily basis here.You are undoubtably the most meticulus handicapper I have ever seen on the internet, and you rank up there for the one's who I know in my personal life for that matter.

That is some losing streak and it will happen, but the fact is it rebounded and came back higher than ever for you.This should be applauded greatly not frowned upon.The one's who see your work here and deny what you claim in this post are just plain jealous IMO.Excellent results over that lengthy period of time:ThmbUp:.

[Ray2000]

Thanks Dan, I appreciate your comments.

We have 2 different approaches to this game. Yours appears to be "get to know 2 or 3 tracks and the horsemen in detail" and then patience, patience, patience, pounce big. Where as I search a lot of races at many tracks to find those where the probable favorite may have a tough race or make a break and make a lot of fairly small bets. If I could get to the track like I used to, I'd actually prefer your approach, but since I can't, this is fun too.

Good luck, I enjoy following along your posts when I can.

[melman]

Ray no serious person would doubt your stats. You have posted here for quite a long time with all your posts well in advance of post time. It's funny I guess because I think I am somewhere in the middle of both of you guys. :) I play two daytime tracks and maybe five or six at night. I prefer M1 YR MR and Moh/Wdb these tracks offer what is for the last couple of years my new main play. That is the pic3/4. ESP the pic4 at M1. Unlike Lotta Kash ( a handicapper I have a lot of respect for) I don't care about the "quality" of the racing stock. A "cheap" claimer at Monti is fine with me. I AGREE with Lotta Kash that over the last two years the M1 stock is not nearly as good as in past years (mostly due to the slot purses at YR and Penna tracks). However to that "quality" issue I say I DON't CARE. I know I just repeated myself but it's a strong point with me. I would love to see more players get into the M1 pic4 pool. It's a GREAT bet with the 15% takeout. To me the takeout rate is an important issue. For example I would NEVER bet a trifecta at POC with it's absurd takeout which I consider an insult to horseplayers. If you think about the takeout on a pic3 you get it with the take when you make the play which covers three races if you bet those same three races by themselves you are being subject to the takeout three times. I also understand that the pic3/4 is not some peoples style as they would just look at one race in the pic3 and bet just that race. That's cool and I am in no way putting that down as it is just what I used to do for years. I believe the advantages of the pic3 is you do not have to be "right" on your picks and can use (I like in a bit at big odds or if he gets a trip) horses in your pic3 ticket. I am willing to accept low pic3 returns when I feel there are a couple of longshot "maybes) in a couple of the pic3 lineup. Have posted more than a few of these on the PA harness board so I am not just "running of at the mouth". :) :) :) BTW Moh/Wdb are adding another pic4 starting Sat night. That makes them and Yonkers with two pic4's per night. Plus they both offer lots of pic3/s. I just wish the pic3 pools at Monti were larger. :)

[DeanT]

Fantastic stuff. I love the time it took for it to get back rolling (six or seven months); this tells me you have the patience of Job :)

Very enlightening Ray. Thanks for posting that.

[JBmadera]

all you guys sure make playing the harness races via the web so much fun. i enjoy following all the threads, esp Ray's computer picks.

glad the beavers are safe!

jb

[LottaKash]

I
I've spent countless hours trying to figure out what happened, what changed, and had to come to the conclusion that it's just a statistical anomaly.
One that almost made me throw the computer into the beaver pond.:)

Ray, the confession of your frustration as of lately, speaks volumes about your honesty and integrity....I would believe anything that you stated publicly, and I do...This thread is proof-positive of that...

Also Ray, I am a bit surprised by the amount of your losses'....Actually, There are nites when your picks are right there, and your profits are quite nice, so, off the top of my head, I would've suspected and said, that you were doing ok, as of lately, not great, but ok, as I see it....

Sometimes, I would look to the charts and replays, after your picks were thru for the nite, and often enough, I would see some photo's and bad trips etc., that if they had gone your way, instead of the other, you would have scored big-time....So, I suspect your anomaly may just be that, after all..."an anomaly"....It is amazing how a computer can be as good as it is, at face value, considering how some races are so 1-dimensional, and the final outcomes are based on subtle little nuances, that a machine would have a hard time giving any weight to....

Ray, somewhere in your mix of things, I suspect there is a tiny little hole or a single piece of information that may give your picks the added dimension, that it may be lacking.....If anyone can find it, I just know it would be you....

As for tossing the machine; The beavers would not like it, and it would certainly not be good for the eco-system......:jump:
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You gotta love this game.....We all search for the "gold", and yet those of us who have come far, and some not so far, have found "our own road" to travel to get to that end point, the "gold".....

Some time ago, my late step-son, was giving me some flying lessons, and I was quite surprised at how often the plane, due to wind and speed etc., would deviate from the straight course along the way to the end point....I mean so many corrections had to be made along the way.....And so it is with handicapping the races, I think....We need to continually identify admit that we may be a bit off course, and make the necessary corrections to get exactly to where we are going....the gold...

I love this site, as we are all united to the "gold", and it often mystifies me how we can often (all of us) reach the same conclusions in a certain race, and yet get there by using so many different paths....That is the beauty of "handicapping", it is so challlenging, frustrating and rewarding all at the same time, at times....
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On a more personal note, I have discovered some very powerful pace and speed patterns, and they have boosted my bottom line quite nicely, these past few months....But they depend a great deal on the quality of the horses....In the cheaper races at the smaller tracks, I have to be more tight-assed in regards to the numbers, as 1-single or ill timed move or speed split, can make all the difference in winning or losing....When the quality of the field and contenders goes up, and I find the right pace patterns, and have a real handicapping edge, my confience level and consistencey goes way up...Whereas with the cheapies, they are not as reliable, and their edge can evaporate at a moments notice....

Still, I find success at "all" tracks, even the lowliest of them...

And so Ray, perhaps, the recent shortcomings of your computer picks, may lie in the nature of the "classifications" and their inherant quality, as opposed to the track itself....I mean your program gives you winners at all the venues, so perhaps the answer may lie in the quality or class(es) of the pick(s)....I know you will find it..
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And for the rest of us, be it using; "Trainers", Class, Form, Speed, Pace, Drivers etc, or any combination therof to find the contenders and hopefully the winners...I wish you all "good racing luck", and a "newer" & keener ability to honestly identify, admit, and correct the errors of our ways.....It never ends until you get there, and when is that ?....
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P.S.....Last nite after the matches were over at the US OPEN, (tennis), The great Jimmy Connors, made a statement as to why he was so successful ;..."I hated losing, more than I love winning"....When I heard that, I immediately said hey,"that's me too".....

Mark Cramer, one of my "handicapping heroes", in almost every book he wrote, always seems to make mention of this aspect, as well....Something like, "making "less losing bets" is just as important as making the winning ones"

I think that is why, I think, that I have become a "spot-player" that I have become today, as, I just hate to lose, even one race.... And, I am just as happy with a winning low-priced overlay at $5.00 ,as one that pays $25.00....And because, I just suck at the races where I don't have a pace and handicapping edge...

best,

[Stick]

Ray,

I hope you are getting some rebate money because with the amount of plays you make it can make a difference. Cold gimmicks can be frustrating, but the bottom line sometimes makes ot worth it. Don't toss that puter just yet.

[Ray2000]

thanks for all the replies

LK

The severe losing streak happened last winter and I think things have returned to normal but of course it could happen again. Other winters weren't so bad on the wallet.


Stick

I use Youbet mostly, except for the Pa tracks Mea, Chst, Poc that they won't let me bet and Rock and Btva which signals they don't carry. Their rewards program equates to around a 3% rebate on Exotics (except 0.3% at Yonkers) but I have to take it in Omaha Steaks, or some other crappy merchandise I don't need. I've never reached the "Platinum" level so I don't know what the cash rebate is and they don't publish it.


I get a small cash back at Twin Spires where I bet Pa tracks and Rockingham and use DayattheTrack for Btva. They stick a dollar or 2 back in my account when I use them, but they've never explained their program.:confused:

I've thought about moving the action but Youbet's batch upload of wagers and ROI tracking would be hard to give up.

[RaceTrackDaddy]

Ray:
Just curious about the drop. Is the computer program designed to be tweaked (to adjust for factors like weather, wind direction and speed, etc)?

If not, coming up with a causaton will be tough. There are so many intervening factors. It could be something so simple as the source of your data (ie trackmaster pp's changing their model that develops the speed and track variant numbers).

Could be something in the industry (ie the banning or use of steriods). The new equipment that came out (ie Harmer Evolution bike).

It could also be that certain dirvers that were on the horses in your sample are no longer driving at the tracks.

Too many factors that could affect this. Who knows, could be something so simple but it appears under our radar.

Last thing I am curious is the chart. When I tried to post up a spreadsheet, this program would not accept it as is. I noticed that when you created a chart, it was able to accept it. Do you use Excel or another program?

thanks for sharing this with us,
rtd

[Ray2000]

Bob

To put up the chart I use a screen capture image saved as a jpg file, and attach it to the post. .Doc files and I think .xls can be also be attached.


I do tweak the program once a year to allow for updated post position bias and lifetime Driver, Trainer stats, but then I rerun last years programs to check for bugs

Towards the end of March when I was trying to find out "what's going on here?" I thought of 6 possibles.

1. My program file got corrupted in a way that didn't crash but wasn't doing what it was supposed to.
2. The TrackMaster data changed, if not the values, possibly the format.
3. The Morning lines changed at more than 1 track (Program needs Pick1 + Pick2 MLs > 12 for race to make the playlist)
.........Yonkers is putting up lower ML odds on the favorite now
4. There's a collusion of crooks operating somewhere.
5. Somebody at an ADW is piggybacking my bets. (Starting to get paranoid now)
6. It's just one of those strange quirks that happens.



To test
#1 I reran all race programs with a back-up program saved before the skid started.
...same results

#2 Wrote a program to verify TM data files from year to year... nothing I could find, Speed, Class and DTV seemed unchanged.

#3 Tested the same time period using Morning line ranks instead of values, same streak occurred

#4 Checked Results track by track couldn't find any one track a lot worse than others.

#5 Checked the Strike rate and average return, was only getting 1 in 33 compared to 1 in 23 in good times. The Average return ($55) stayed the same. If anyone was pounding me they got stung bad:)

Came to the conclusion "It's just one of those things"

[LottaKash]

[QUOTE=Ray2000 If anyone was pounding me they got stung bad:) [/QUOTE]

I was pounding some other things...:jump:

best,

[gillenr]

Keep it up - sometimes $h!t happens & kills our confidence in what we're doing.

[RaceTrackDaddy]

Thank you Ray. It could of been so many different things and it just might of been in the feed or hay they ate. Who really knows for sure. We are trying to predict future outcomes based on previous results which in itself is not perfect.

Thanks for jpg idea...thought this medium would accept formatting from programs like spreadsheets but I was wrong. Will use that in the future when wanting to display something in graphic form.

Love the capture programs. Even had one that captured audio and video streaming. Shareware but the designer had a back door in it and after about 4 years of use, he came in and set a limit on its use. I now have to pay 29 bucks if I want it to work again. I just removed the program. Keep my money for other things..lol

Thanks again,
rtd