LONG TERM CAPITAL PLAYS, RECENT MODEL RECAP

[formula_2002]

RECENT MODEL POSTED PLAYS
111 PLAYS, 54 WINNERS , 49% WIN RATE
WIN POOL ROI =1.21


SEE ATTACHMENT FOR BREAKDOWN

[markgoldie]

Joe:

Quick recommendation. I'd drop the 3% price-drop disqualifier from your progressive bet system. Two reasons: (1) The late money influx after a bet is possible is probably expanding the pools enough so that what looked like a 3%+ impact most likely won't be. Also, you have no control over where the late money goes and this is certainly way outstripping your 3% parameter. (2) You're selections are low-mutuel, high strike rate in nature. So if you average a little over $4.00 in payoff, the 3% is often within the breakage at most tracks. So, for example, when the final talley is in, if a horse is precisely slated to pay $4.19 to win, it will show as 1-1 in odds and pay $4.00 in actual payoff. Had you lowered the presumptive payoff by even 4%, you would have lowered the payoff by $.17 and the horse would have paid $4.00 anyway. In the meantime, you may have cancelled or altered your bet size for no reason.

So I'd drop the 3% stipulation and just roll with it.

[formula_2002]

Mark, welcome back, hope all went well.

You are right about the late money, but some times the "structured bet" gets to be more than the smaller tracks can handel.

I can monitor the pools with an excel macro.

I'm stunned by the results and dread a correction..that would take the fun out of it :)

from a note i posted yesterday

Retama Park - Race 3
# Win Place Show
3 $4.40 $2.80 $2.60

based on the current bankroll, this beast was a $176 bet.
Unfortunately, the max bet without affecting the payout was $38

with two plays left the flat bet roi is 1.68 for the day.
the structured bets increased the initial $500 br to $728, but as I said some pool sizes could not withstand the bet size.

Full recap tomorrow..

[green80]

2002, you have a following here.

[formula_2002]

2002, you have a following here.
good day so far eh!!