track-to-track

[andicap]

If I wanted to do casual, easy track-to-track comparisons on raw fractions using the Winners Book from DRF Simulcast Weekly what are the best ways to compare similar horses?
I just want to get some idea as to if a horse runs a 46.2 half at Saratoga, what's the equivalent at Monmouth say.

I have heard that the 10K par method really doesn't work, either does NW1 except on similar circuits.

And don't tell me to buy Dave's par times :)

[Lefty]

If you don't want to buy pars 2 not-too-bad ways are the DRF's 3 yr. best times and the track to track equilization chart by Americanm Turf Monthly. Both do a
fairly good job; but nothing's perfect.

[andicap]

How does ATM compute its charts?

[Lefty]

Not sure how they're computed but they've worked well
for me in the past when I was using TPR on a pocket computer and it was quicker than looking up 3 yr. bests.
About all I know.

[Rick Ransom]

Here's something from an old book (Scientific Handicapping) on this. They say the best way to do track-to-track comparisons is to use 6 furlong times. More races are run at this distance than any other, so the differences tend to be more accurate.

[Tom]

6 furlongs is usually best to use, but if you are playing cheap tracks, 5.5 furlongs might be better. At Finger Lakes. most races are at 5.5, and for a while, we had 6 furlong track records set by Groovy and several other Breeder's Cup Sprint winers/contenders who shipped in for our one big race every year. Check out the difference between the three year best times-5.5 to 6 should be close to 6.2 - 6.3 seconds. If you see 6 is run 5 seconds faster that 5.5, the record is out of whack.
Another way to use Winners Book is to use the Beyer number of the horse shipping in and convert it to time using the chart in Beyer's book. Then you have "equalized" the final times. Say you had to adjsut the final time by a full second from track a to b.
then adjust the pace time by 2/5's or 3/5's, or whatever
you like.
Or, use Total Pace. Works great. Still. And it gets horses that a lot of people won't see with beyer figs.
Zig when they zag.
Tom

[Barchyman]

Originally posted by Tom
. If you see 6 is run 5 seconds faster that 5.5, the record is out of whack.Tom

If I see a three-year best 6 furlongs run 5 seconds FASTER than 5.5 furlongs, I want to buy a mare to breed to that 6 furlong horse. ;)

Tom

Most easy way to compare track to track,use the speed rating in the DRF,pay no attention to the varient(for this instance).
Use the # given as a measure against horses at other tracks,ajusting the TIME and then do the total pace rating for your adjusted time.
Example:
Race is contested at 6f.
Hoss A ran his last race at this track and did it in 1:12.0 DRF rates this as 85-17
hoss B ran at another track,6f, and did it in 1:112/5
DRF rating 85-13
hoss C ran 6f at yet another track,did it in 1:12 3/5
DRF rating 87-15
Now use the track rating at todays track ,1:12 = 85
horse A -no change
horse B - now becomes 1:12
horse C- now is 1:11 3/5

Do the same adjustments for internal pace and run your TP rating.
Exact? no ,but it gets you close in many instances,without keeping a large track to track par chart.

[Aussieplayer]

Hi guys,

But what about the "track class" problem? Maybe you guys don't have this problem so much, but we have it every race! Horses coming to a high class track for example, from a low class track (or vice verca).
Whether you use 3 year best, Beyer numbers, you have a problem that the baselines are out of whack due to track class. I suppose that's why the Quirin style figs. are popular, but we don't have a situation where there is a same class at every track (like your $10 000 claimers).

eg. par time, 3 year best or whatever for 6f at high class track is 71.00s, and same for low class track. No adjustment? Doesn't make sense as obviously the lower class track is a "faster" track.

Any thoughts/suggestions on this quandry would be much appreciated.

Cheers
Aussieplayer

[Rick Ransom]

Good point about track class. Actually, the real answer to this is "whatever works best".

[Lefty]

Doc Sartin, long time ago, discarded "track class" If you're searching for longshots i'd say this is way to go.
Friend of mine eschewed betting a horse in NY cause it
came from Del. Track Class consideration cost him a
real "biggie"
Taulbot was fond of saying "speed is class" if horse adjusts on the SR don't worry about class.
Some thoughts for what they're worth.

[so.cal.fan]

Rick,
Did that old book you mentioned, Scientific Handicapping, have a chapter about computing pace ratings from the DRF speed rating at the 1/2 mile?
I read a book in the early sixties. I was a teenager and it was the first book I read on handicapping. I think that was the one!

[Rick Ransom]

so.cal.fan,

That's the one. They called it "simulated pace". That was one of my first handicapping books too. I think the very first one was about speed, by Bob Hebert.

If anyone else is curious, it involved finding the speed of the winner of the race, then estimating the pace by adjusting for the second call lengths. The book was written in 1963, so it probably worked pretty well at the time. Pace as a handicapping factor goes back a lot farther than most people think.

[andicap]

That the same simulated pace Dave Schwartz has posted about here? Just give the pace the same speed as the final time and deduct lengths behind.
If not, I'd be curious as to the method....

[so.cal.fan]

Rick,
Do you know where I can get that book? I would love to have a copy just as a sentimental possession. I loved that book when I was a kid, and I actually put in so much work learning to handicap by their methods, I had a few winning meets at Hollywood Park and Santa Anita. Then I met my husband, who at the time was a horseman, became an "insider" and forgot all I had learned! LOL

[Rick Ransom]

so.cal.fan,

You should be able to get a used copy through amazon.com. There's one listed there now for $12.75. Another possibility is Gambler's Book Shop in Las Vegas, but I think you'd have to call to find out if they have one, since it's not listed on their web site.

[so.cal.fan]

Thanks, Rick,
I just ordered it!

[Tom]

Originally posted by Barchyman


If I see a three-year best 6 furlongs run 5 seconds FASTER than 5.5 furlongs, I want to buy a mare to breed to that 6 furlong horse. ;)

Tom

Oops.
I menat 5 second SLOWER, not faster. Although at Finger Lakes, you just might find a horse that runs 5.5 furlongs 5 seconds slower that 6.0 furlongs are run.
I am not sure if they keep stats on this, but I would think FL just be the leader in Beyer-bagels.
Tom

[hurrikane]

Aussie,
guess i have a different opinion about track class. If anyone here has ever played sports you know when you are out classed ...maybe you pump it up..maybe you play your heart out but bottom line is you know you are outclassed and maybe you will by some measure of luck beat these people today. But unless you are better than you think you are you will lose 9 out of 10. And I'm talking about people with minds that can motivate..not a horse

Example..lets see.. a mdn from PIM drop to a mcl at DEL..after losing by 40 lengths..there were only 3 in the race..2 others mds were from BEL..there were other mdn runners at DEL in the race...what do you think.
PIM won..paid 52..ex..500....if you think track class doesn't exist...I think that is great..hell...he might have been 5-1 if you though otherwise

This is standard stuff in mdn...if you're talking a 6yo with a track record...different situation..but track class does exist.

[silvercharm1]

what book were you were looking for ?

[BillW]

what book were you were looking for ?

silvercharm1,

This thread is 4 years old and sadly with the demographic of horseracing fans these days, these guys probably are too old to remember :lol:.

Welcome to the board.

Bill

[doophus]

silvercharm1,

This thread is 4 years old and sadly with the demographic of horseracing fans these days, these guys probably are too old to remember :lol:.

Welcome to the board.

Bill :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol:

One of the all time best. Thanks for starting my day with a chuckle.

[First_Place]

They were talking about this book:

Scientific Handicapping (http://www.amazon.com/exec/obidos/ASIN/0137958803/fast-bkasin-20/002-3672557-3724825?Scientific%20Handicapping:%20Tested%20Way% 20to%20Win%20at%20the%20Race%20Track)

FP

[toetoe]

Bill,
What's your little 4-year-old's name, sonny? Eh, whatzatchasay?