Rachel's Woodward...

[joanied]

I know we have a few RA threads going on...but maybe this one can be just for opinions & picks for the Woodward (rather than speculation...since we now have the post positions and the field finalized)...

I thought this was a thought provoking article, and brings up the fact that Calvin WILL have a bullseye on his back:
http://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-racing/articles/52393/woodward-analysis-target-rachel?id=52393

[cj]

Woodward Pace Figures (http://www.pacefigures.com/ROTW/Sar090905)

Reading the figures 1 (http://www.pacefigures.com/explanation.html)

Reading the figures 2 (http://www.pacefigures.com/numbers.html)

[46zilzal]

Mountain out of a mole hill. ANY BIG FAVORITE is gunned for EVERY race.

Do you think opponents tried any less than they will Saturday against Citation, Native Dancer, Ta Wee, Affirmed, Ribot, Dr. Fager??? etc etc. I sincerely doubt it.

[joanied]

Mountain out of a mole hill. ANY BIG FAVORITE is gunned for EVERY race.

Do you think opponents tried any less than they will Saturday against Citation, Native Dancer, Ta Wee, Affirmed, Ribot, Dr. Fager??? etc etc. I sincerely doubt it.

Oh, zil.... I know that:faint: ...but I don't care about other races...just this one (for now)....I'm not saying this is any different than any other big race with a heavy favorite like Rachel....
just thought it'd be a fun & interesting thread to get everyone's take on the race and picks...
OK? :) :) :)

[joanied]

Woodward Pace Figures (http://www.pacefigures.com/ROTW/Sar090905)

Reading the figures 1 (http://www.pacefigures.com/explanation.html)

Reading the figures 2 (http://www.pacefigures.com/numbers.html)

Thanks, cj...short & sweet.
Now, seems to me, looking at your figures, she is pretty much a lock in here...unless she gets locked into a box..RA wins...which, needless to say, is what I want to see, hell, guess we all want to see her make history :jump: again...
so, what are you picks at the wire? I'd like to see 'em...you always:ThmbUp: do good.

Are you & your dad gonna be there?

[cj]

Thanks, cj...short & sweet.
Now, seems to me, looking at your figures, she is pretty much a lock in here...unless she gets locked into a box..RA wins...which, needless to say, is what I want to see, hell, guess we all want to see her make history :jump: again...
so, what are you picks at the wire? I'd like to see 'em...you always:ThmbUp: do good.

Are you & your dad gonna be there?

I'll most likely be at Remington.

Here is a look at the 2004 Classic (http://www.pacefigures.com/archives/bc04/classic.html), you can see how she compares to Azeri.

Here is Azeri at the age of 4 in the 2002 Distaff (http://www.pacefigures.com/archives/bc02/distaff.html), probably a better comparison. Keep in mind, she was considered by most a superstar.

[W2G]

It's not always easy being both a fan and an opportunistic horseplayer.

As a fan I hope she wins by a pole.

As a horseplayer, hmmm. What did Harvey Pack always say? "Never bet a favorite to do something for the first time". That is usually pretty good advice, except when it's not. So odds-on Rachel will try Saratoga for the first time, and older males for the first time, at the same time. Throw in a jock who has had one trip to the winner's circle this meet, and pools infused with emotional money... it's tempting to take a shot against. These kinds of opportunities are rare.

That said, I plan to just watch and hope to see something special again. And if she loses I hope some of you are smart enough and brave enough to score big.

[Norm]

I know we have a few RA threads going on...but maybe this one can be just for opinions & picks for the Woodward (rather than speculation...since we now have the post positions and the field finalized)...

I thought this was a thought provoking article, and brings up the fact that Calvin WILL have a bullseye on his back:
http://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-racing/articles/52393/woodward-analysis-target-rachel?id=52393
Yes, a thought provoking article, with an interesting cast of characters. It almost looks like the field was custom designed to beat her. Da'Tara will wire this field unless someone comes up to get him. My guess is that Bullsbay is there for the lone purpose of trying to intimidate her. Her massive size is one of her strengths and Bullsbay, at 1250 lbs. is bigger. He may try to bully her as Foolish pleasure did to Ruffian all those years ago. If she gets clear of the big guy and goes after Da'Tara, he can step-up the pace and let the closers test her in the last 100 yards. In my humble opinion, this race is not about pace nearly as much as it is about strategy. I hope Mr. Borel is up to this task. Her strenghs have been assessed and there is a horse there in that gang-up to test each one of them. R.A. against any one of those guys is an easy winner, but against all of them running horse-Mafia style she is in for a really hard time of it. Even so, my greatest concern for her is Saratoga itself. I have been wondering why her people chose this track with its unique characteristics as a venue for a serious test of her abilities. If she wins this one, she deserves an extra check-mark under the heading of "class". Contrary to popular belief, this is not a push-over field and it is certainly not an easy track.

[Zenyatta To Crush]

People keep saying that Rachel's competition are capable of running that one big race that could cause her some trouble in the Woodward. Just on paper, even her competition's best race couldn't beat Rachel's average race.

I'm not afraid of Rachel getting boxed in, this race shouldn't be like the 2005 Woodward where Commetator got swarmed by the Saint Liam rabbit. Rachel can sit farther off if she needs to. I like post 3 for her, Bullsbay to her inside will not be a factor for her at all, she's much too fast early for him and she will never see him again for the rest of the race. Even if Cool Coal Man and Past The Point try to put early pressure on Rachel, it shouldn't really make a difference. I also like the 3 post because those 1-1/8 races at Saratoga can be bad for horses in Post 6 and out since its such a short run to the turn and they always get carried out wide.

To me, almost every other horse in this race (except Da Tara) is capable of getting second here. My choice for 2nd is Asiatic Boy. He's used to carrying more weight over in Dubai (unlike Bullsbay who is used to carrying 116 lbs) and seems to have a case of seconditis over here in the states.

Should be an interesting race regardless...my prediction is Rachel by 5 lengths over Asiatic Boy, with Macho Again coming late for 3rd.

[Norm]

It's not always easy being both a fan and an opportunistic horseplayer.

As a fan I hope she wins by a pole.

As a horseplayer, hmmm. What did Harvey Pack always say? "Never bet a favorite to do something for the first time". That is usually pretty good advice, except when it's not. So odds-on Rachel will try Saratoga for the first time, and older males for the first time, at the same time. Throw in a jock who has had one trip to the winner's circle this meet, and pools infused with emotional money... it's tempting to take a shot against. These kinds of opportunities are rare.

That said, I plan to just watch and hope to see something special again. And if she loses I hope some of you are smart enough and brave enough to score big.A lot of good points here. I think the ideal betting strategy is 1) If you are at the track, buy as many single $2 Win tickets as you can. If she wins, you'll get rich selling them on eBay. 2) If you are not at the track, go for the upset.

[joanied]

Yes, a thought provoking article, with an interesting cast of characters. It almost looks like the field was custom designed to beat her. Da'Tara will wire this field unless someone comes up to get him. My guess is that Bullsbay is there for the lone purpose of trying to intimidate her. Her massive size is one of her strengths and Bullsbay, at 1250 lbs. is bigger. He may try to bully her as Foolish pleasure did to Ruffian all those years ago. If she gets clear of the big guy and goes after Da'Tara, he can step-up the pace and let the closers test her in the last 100 yards. In my humble opinion, this race is not about pace nearly as much as it is about strategy. I hope Mr. Borel is up to this task. Her strenghs have been assessed and there is a horse there in that gang-up to test each one of them. R.A. against any one of those guys is an easy winner, but against all of them running horse-Mafia style she is in for a really hard time of it. Even so, my greatest concern for her is Saratoga itself. I have been wondering why her people chose this track with its unique characteristics as a venue for a serious test of her abilities. If she wins this one, she deserves an extra check-mark under the heading of "class". Contrary to popular belief, this is not a push-over field and it is certainly not an easy track.

Very good post, Norm...and I think you nailed it pretty good...as you mentioned, there are 3 factors that scare me...the fact she can get in trouble, boxed in, and that Bullsbay is a huge powerful colt...I don't think RA is easily intimidated...but I won't be surprised to see Bullsbay come out just enough to bother her at the break...unless she can outbreak him, and she is a great gate horse...and Zito wingin' it with Datara...it's always scary for a heavy favorite at Saratoga, and I question why they didn't take her over to the main track for her last work...then there's Calvin, who has had an awful meet up there...can he keep his cool and make all the right moves with her...let's hope so.
If she wins this, and I beleive she will...that check mark next to class will go along with the word 'great' to describe her...no one could deny her as a great horse after this one...if she wins....oh, wait...when she wins:jump: :jump: :jump:

[joanied]

I'll most likely be at Remington.

Here is a look at the 2004 Classic (http://www.pacefigures.com/archives/bc04/classic.html), you can see how she compares to Azeri.

Here is Azeri at the age of 4 in the 2002 Distaff (http://www.pacefigures.com/archives/bc02/distaff.html), probably a better comparison. Keep in mind, she was considered by most a superstar.

Sorry you won't be there, cj...like me, you're gonna miss history being made:ThmbUp: ...just off the top of my head, seems like Rachel would beat Azeri...and Azeri was, IMO...a superstar:)

[bisket]

to handicap this race we have to try and figure out who runs second here because we all know who's gonna finish first. we must first try and figure out what is the mystery behind macho again's winning races. hmmm a little background. i've had macho pegged since last years preakness. i had him in the jim dandy last year. much to my delight another pick from the bisket that confounds the speed fig handicappers :p . hope your reading this spacey. unfortunately at the fairgrounds i picked him again, but wasn't home for the race :bang: . i liked him in the foster this year but just didn't think he could beat einstein, and passed on the race. so what does he do saturday at saratoga? he finishes second. why because whenever the pace in the first 1/2 is 46 seconds macho is right there at the end. you can look it up :cool: i think rachel is a comparison to brownie. what did brownie run in the first 1/2 of the preakness 46 and 4 :ThmbUp: . now who's gonna finish third. well there's another gentleman of a horse who seems to feel both ladies and gentleman should be ahead of him at all times. that would be asiatic boy. so that'll be a 3$ tri wheel :3: / :4: , :6: / :4: , :6:

[statik27]

Sorry you won't be there, cj...like me, you're gonna miss history being made:ThmbUp: ...just off the top of my head, seems like Rachel would beat Azeri...and Azeri was, IMO...a superstar:)


Hey Joanied, your prolly right, but RA would have known she was in a horse race with Azeri. In the 2002 BC distaff, she ran a half in 46 and change 3/4's in 1:09 and change, while being pressured the whole way by the brilliant filly Imperial Gesture. She still just pulled away from them. Great mare.

Super memory for me, I made a ton of money on that race. God bless her lol.

[WinterTriangle]

to handicap this race we have to try and figure out who runs second here because we all know who's gonna finish first. we must first try and figure out what is the mystery behind macho again's winning races. hmmm a little background. i've had macho pegged since last years preakness. i had him in the jim dandy last year. much to my delight another pick from the bisket that confounds the speed fig handicappers :p . hope your reading this spacey. unfortunately at the fairgrounds i picked him again, but wasn't home for the race :bang: . i liked him in the foster this year but just didn't think he could beat einstein, and passed on the race. so what does he do saturday at saratoga? he finishes second. why because whenever the pace in the first 1/2 is 46 seconds macho is right there at the end. you can look it up :cool: i think rachel is a comparison to brownie. what did brownie run in the first 1/2 of the preakness 46 and 4 :ThmbUp: . now who's gonna finish third. well there's another gentleman of a horse who seems to feel both ladies and gentleman should be ahead of him at all times. that would be asiatic boy. so that'll be a 3$ tri wheel :3: / :4: , :6: / :4: , :6:

Interesting.

I have yet to look at the PPs. Per trainers stats, Saeed is winning at something over 60%? Dallas Stewart at about 20%.

[Cratos]

I know we have a few RA threads going on...but maybe this one can be just for opinions & picks for the Woodward (rather than speculation...since we now have the post positions and the field finalized)...

I thought this was a thought provoking article, and brings up the fact that Calvin WILL have a bullseye on his back:
http://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-racing/articles/52393/woodward-analysis-target-rachel?id=52393

If Rachel loses the Woodward I will surprised and not because of her alleged superstar status, but because her connections has “cherry-picked” a soft spot that sets up very well for her talent and style.

Other than Rachel and Pass the Point there isn’t any other legitimate speed in the race and I think Pass the Point will falter if the mile goes in 1:34+ and the rest of the field will be too far behind to offer any serious challenge in the last 1/8th mile.

Additionally, I see Asiatic Boy getting up for second and Bullsbay coming in third. However those two could flip flop positions.

Rachel if still in form should run this race between 1:47 and 1:48; and win easily.

Also if it rains, save your money if you are going to bet against Rachel because she is a mudder extraordinaire

[cj]

How hilarious is that? Cherry picked a spot? Here we have a THREE YEAR OLD FILLY that is taking on older, GRADE 1, colts in early September.

Just out of curiosity, how many three year old colts have tried the Woodward lately?

[ghostyapper]

How hilarious is that? Cherry picked a spot? Here we have a THREE YEAR OLD FILLY that is taking on older, GRADE 1, colts in early September.

Just out of curiosity, how many three year old colts have tried the Woodward lately?

Colts rarely run in the woodward because if you're a top colt then you are running in the travers for more money. There isn't much reason to run in the woodward over the travers, unless of course the 1 1/4 scares you off.....

[PaceAdvantage]

She already won a major race against major competition at 9.5 furlongs.

Her pedigree suggests 10 furlongs is WELL WITHIN her scope.

Why in the world would her connections be worried about an extra HALF furlong given the above evidence??

[Java Gold@TFT]

The Woodward was only moved up in the calendar a few years ago. It never competed with the Travers before then. It was always run at Belmont until the BC "prep race" philosophy screwed with a GREAT fall championship lineup including races like the Woodward, Marlboro Cup and JCGC. Go to wikipedia and look up the 3yos winners of the Woodward over the last 20 years. It is absolutley inane to compare the Travers to the Woodward in historical perspective. In the last 20 years 2 winners of the Travers have been HOY at age 3 - Holy Bull and Point Given. Try to count the Woodward winners that have been HOY during that time. I am sooo excited to be able to go to Saratoga tomorrow to see one of the greatest fillies to ever race and none of the bashers can ever change that. Some of us appreciate greatness when we see it (cj and PA among many others).

[DanG]

I know we have a few RA threads going on...but maybe this one can be just for opinions & picks for the Woodward (rather than speculation...since we now have the post positions and the field finalized)...

I thought this was a thought provoking article, and brings up the fact that Calvin WILL have a bullseye on his back:
http://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-racing/articles/52393/woodward-analysis-target-rachel?id=52393
Thanks for the article.

I hope you get to see it live (video) Joan; win / lose or draw you genuinely appreciate what your seeing in her.

[ghostyapper]

The Woodward was only moved up in the calendar a few years ago. It never competed with the Travers before then. It was always run at Belmont until the BC "prep race" philosophy screwed with a GREAT fall championship lineup including races like the Woodward, Marlboro Cup and JCGC. Go to wikipedia and look up the 3yos winners of the Woodward over the last 20 years. It is absolutley inane to compare the Travers to the Woodward in historical perspective. In the last 20 years 2 winners of the Travers have been HOY at age 3 - Holy Bull and Point Given. Try to count the Woodward winners that have been HOY during that time. I am sooo excited to be able to go to Saratoga tomorrow to see one of the greatest fillies to ever race and none of the bashers can ever change that. Some of us appreciate greatness when we see it (cj and PA among many others).

Well typical of you. CJ asked "how many 3yo have tried the woodward LATELY" and you go off into a tangent about the history of the race

[ghostyapper]

She already won a major race against major competition at 9.5 furlongs.

Her pedigree suggests 10 furlongs is WELL WITHIN her scope.

Why in the world would her connections be worried about an extra HALF furlong given the above evidence??

This has been argued to death but the actions of her connections keep arguing against you with their decisions to not run in 10 furlong races since her narrow preakness victory. Obviously they did not view the preakness the same way you did.

[Java Gold@TFT]

Well typical of you. CJ asked "how many 3yo have tried the woodward LATELY" and you go off into a tangent about the history of the race
I notice that you conveniently avoided answering cj's question. How many 3yo colts have tried the Woodward LATELY? If you want to ignore that the race date and track were changed due to the BC prep race crap then that can be your defense - just admit it. The last 3yo colt to win the Woodward was Holy Bull 15 years ago and he didn't have to choose between the Travers and Woodward.

[Cratos]

How hilarious is that? Cherry picked a spot? Here we have a THREE YEAR OLD FILLY that is taking on older, GRADE 1, colts in early September.

Just out of curiosity, how many three year old colts have tried the Woodward lately?

Yes, I did say ‘cherry-picked’ and unlike Edwin Gann the owner of her sire, Medaglia d’Oro who took on all comers when his horse was in training, Rachel connections is selective about who she runs against.

Take Rachel out of this year’s Woodward and it would be a ho-hum event because of the lack of quality.

Both the Personal Ensign and the Alabama was available to Rachel connections if they wanted to test the filly at the 1 ¼ mile distance, but they choose to opt out.

My criticism is not just against Rachel’s connections, it is also against the connections of Zenyetta who are apparently in love with their filly being “undefeated” because she runs primarily 1 1/16 mile races on synthetic surfaces and almost never leave California.

Furthermore in June on this forum in another thread I sung my praises for Rachel and will not waver from them, but great she is not; good she is very good.

[ghostyapper]

I notice that you conveniently avoided answering cj's question. How many 3yo colts have tried the Woodward LATELY? If you want to ignore that the race date and track were changed due to the BC prep race crap then that can be your defense - just admit it. The last 3yo colt to win the Woodward was Holy Bull 15 years ago and he didn't have to choose between the Travers and Woodward.

The purpose of the question was to try and show how brave jackson is for sending rachel to the woodward. I doubt cj was actually looking for an answer so I am not "avoiding" anything. The point I am making is the answer to the question does not mean its a brave decision. Something tells me street sense and bernardini would have run in the woodward had the travers not been an option

Add to the fact that this is an unusually weak group of handicap horses and you realize its not really a brave decision at all. A brave decision would have been to run in the traver's last saturday but they decided to stay home.

Got it? My guess is not...

[cj]

Yes, I did say ‘cherry-picked’ and unlike Edwin Gann the owner of her sire, Medaglia d’Oro who took on all comers when his horse was in training, Rachel connections is selective about who she runs against.

Take Rachel out of this year’s Woodward and it would be a ho-hum event because of the lack of quality.

Both the Personal Ensign and the Alabama was available to Rachel connections if they wanted to test the filly at the 1 ¼ mile distance, but they choose to opt out.

My criticism is not just against Rachel’s connections, it is also against the connections of Zenyetta who are apparently in love with their filly being “undefeated” because she runs primarily 1 1/16 mile races on synthetic surfaces and almost never leave California.

Furthermore in June on this forum in another thread I sung my praises for Rachel and will not waver from them, but great she is not; good she is very good.

It is easy, in hindsight, to say she picked an easy spot. Nobody, and I mean absolutely nobody, considered the Alabama a tougher spot than the Woodward before the race. Careless Jewell ran a stellar race, but if RA was in the race, she would have been 1 to 10 or 1 to 20. In the Travers, Summer Bird ran a great race. Again though, she demolished him at Monmouth a few weeks prior. What was the challenge in that race, again, before it was run?

I guess a few people are hung up on the 10f thing, but I don't think her connections are ducking that particular distance. They are looking to do things with a horse nobody has done before, and I applaud them for it.

[ArlJim78]

I see no indication, not a shred, that 10 furlongs presents some kind of an issue for Rachel Alexandra. I highly doubt that her connections are concerned about it either.

[Cratos]

It is easy, in hindsight, to say she picked an easy spot. Nobody, and I mean absolutely nobody, considered the Alabama a tougher spot than the Woodward before the race. Careless Jewell ran a stellar race, but if RA was in the race, she would have been 1 to 10 or 1 to 20. In the Travers, Summer Bird ran a great race. Again though, she demolished him at Monmouth a few weeks prior. What was the challenge in that race, again, before it was run?

I guess a few people are hung up on the 10f thing, but I don't think her connections are ducking that particular distance. They are looking to do things with a horse nobody has done before, and I applaud them for it.

Hindsight, what are you talking about? I never considered Careless Jewell performance in the Alabama or Icon Project win in the Personal Ensign as reference points in making my criticism about Rachel not being entered in either one of those races.

If you think Rachel is immune to criticism because she now has star power you are living in la la land. I have said and am convinced that her performances in the Mother Goose and the Haskell are two of the best performances by any gender in the last 25 years.

But those performances don’t make her great; they do give her a start toward greatness.

Also I do believe that both Asmussen and Jackson is skeptical about sending her out for the 1 ¼ distance.

Far as she doing things that no 3yo filly has done before is laughable because in recent years both Winning Colors and Genuine Risk ran against 3 year old males in the KY Derby and won. And if you believe running an exceptional 3yo filly against a mediocre field of older horses in September is historic, then racing is taking a giant step backwards.

[Bochall]

Thanks for the figs CJ, esp the Forego....early dope for me in the Woodward is that Macho Again has the only shot at catching Rachel if she's tired from the probable pace relay team she must face early on. Sad, but I've seen riders ride to beat someone else at the expense of their own horse....usually in the Belmont with a Triple Crown on the line

[Bobzilla]

I see no indication, not a shred, that 10 furlongs presents some kind of an issue for Rachel Alexandra. I highly doubt that her connections are concerned about it either.


I tend to agree, although I understand where the 10f brigade is coming from as this distance has historically been used as the guage to measure one's ability at a classic distance.

I look at it this way, I'd be more impressed with a 3yo filly defeating a group of older males in late summer at 9f, especially if the fractions are anything like last year's Woodward (46 1/5, 1:09 3/5, 1:35 1/5... set by tomorrow's particpant Past the Point and if I recall correctly I think the track speed was above par) than I would if she had participated in this year's Personal Ensign at 10f defeating a group of older fillies and mares, exploding home off of the more moderate fractions of (23 4/5, 47 3/5, 1:11 1/5). That's not taking anything away from Icon Project as she ran a good race but I do think there would have been some discouragement if a still-in-form RA had joined her for the blast for home. I have to think that RA's connections had a pretty good idea of the most likely field composition for the Woodward when they made their decision and with PTP in the race there could be some heat. That's not to say she would necessarily be on it with him but I'm sure she'll be within a reasonable striking distance. Again, that's only a possibility and maybe the fractions tomorrow will be more sensible than last year's Woodward, and it would still be impressive taking on the older males. I honestly don't think Asmussen/Jackson are ducking anything.

[46zilzal]

She already won a major race against major competition at 9.5 furlongs.

Her pedigree suggests 10 furlongs is WELL WITHIN her scope.

Why in the world would her connections be worried about an extra HALF furlong given the above evidence??
That contest and the haggard look she displayed late, Borel's comments and her energy distributions ALL fortold that the "wall" was hit that day.

[depalma113]

Hindsight, what are you talking about? I never considered Careless Jewell performance in the Alabama or Icon Project win in the Personal Ensign as reference points in making my criticism about Rachel not being entered in either one of those races.

If you think Rachel is immune to criticism because she now has star power you are living in la la land. I have said and am convinced that her performances in the Mother Goose and the Haskell are two of the best performances by any gender in the last 25 years.

But those performances don’t make her great; they do give her a start toward greatness.

Also I do believe that both Asmussen and Jackson is skeptical about sending her out for the 1 ¼ distance.

Far as she doing things that no 3yo filly has done before is laughable because in recent years both Winning Colors and Genuine Risk ran against 3 year old males in the KY Derby and won. And if you believe running an exceptional 3yo filly against a mediocre field of older horses in September is historic, then racing is taking a giant step backwards.

How many 3 year-old fillies have defeated open company on dirt in a Grade One race?

[joanied]

Hey Joanied, your prolly right, but RA would have known she was in a horse race with Azeri. In the 2002 BC distaff, she ran a half in 46 and change 3/4's in 1:09 and change, while being pressured the whole way by the brilliant filly Imperial Gesture. She still just pulled away from them. Great mare.

Super memory for me, I made a ton of money on that race. God bless her lol.

cj's numbers seem to tell the 'tail' :D ...sorry, couldn't help it...
I was a huge fan of Azeri...loved her then, love her now...she & Mike made a hell of a team and no doubt, IMO, Azeri is one of the 'great' fillies of all time...if she was around to face off with Rachel...I think RA would win...but man oh man...what a stretch run we'd see, with RA getting there first (actually, I'm glad they aren't both racing now...I'd be so torn between the two!!

[joanied]

How hilarious is that? Cherry picked a spot? Here we have a THREE YEAR OLD FILLY that is taking on older, GRADE 1, colts in early September.

Just out of curiosity, how many three year old colts have tried the Woodward lately?

Oh, cj...you just can't please everyone...and some folks just never seem happy about anything...bash, bash, bash...I suppose when she kicks ass up there tomorrow, this guy will be back to say she beat nothing....give me a break!!

Have a great weekend, cj :jump:

[joanied]

The Woodward was only moved up in the calendar a few years ago. It never competed with the Travers before then. It was always run at Belmont until the BC "prep race" philosophy screwed with a GREAT fall championship lineup including races like the Woodward, Marlboro Cup and JCGC. Go to wikipedia and look up the 3yos winners of the Woodward over the last 20 years. It is absolutley inane to compare the Travers to the Woodward in historical perspective. In the last 20 years 2 winners of the Travers have been HOY at age 3 - Holy Bull and Point Given. Try to count the Woodward winners that have been HOY during that time. I am sooo excited to be able to go to Saratoga tomorrow to see one of the greatest fillies to ever race and none of the bashers can ever change that. Some of us appreciate greatness when we see it (cj and PA among many others).

Excellent, JavaG :ThmbUp: :ThmbUp: :ThmbUp: ohhell...:ThmbUp: :ThmbUp: :ThmbUp:

[Java Gold@TFT]

How many 3 year-old fillies have defeated open company on dirt in a Grade One race?
In NY? At a route? On dirt? the last one was in the 19th century. Of course that was before races were graded. Since the advent of the current American Graded Stakes committee - none throughout the country unless you go to grass and include Miesque and Goldikova in the BC Miles that they won.

[depalma113]

In NY? At a route? On dirt? the last one was in the 19th century. Of course that was before races were graded. Since the advent of the current American Graded Stakes committee - none throughout the country unless you go to grass and include Miesque and Goldikova in the BC Miles that they won.

Exactly and that's my point.

[joanied]

AARRGGG:bang: I'm tired of the bashers & smashers that are never going to give Rachel her due...and if I posted to everyone of them, I'd be here all damned day...so, guess I'll ignore the negative and enjoy the postive...

Rachel is a gift from heaven...and tomorrow she makes history again...no one is gonna take the fun outta this for me and everyone else here that can actually SEE what she is...other wordly, IMO...

1- Rachel
2-Macho Again
3-Asiatic Boy
4-Bullsbay

Calvin...watch your back...and at the wire...the other jocks will be watching yours:lol:

Rachel:jump: Rachel:jump: Rachel:jump: (and I hope the naysayers don't like it:p )

[Cratos]

How many 3 year-old fillies have defeated open company on dirt in a Grade One race?

I am quite sure you know that racing has gone through a metamorphosis of sort in the last 35 years due the many changes that has taken place.

For starters the grading of racing didn’t start until 1973 and historically 3yo fillies only ran against 3yo fillies. It was at the 4yo level that fillies would tackle open company.

But 25 years ago racing took one of its most significant changes with the advent of the Breeders’ Cup races. This venue put into play minimum races with maximum purse payoff because of the Breeders’ Cup large purse structure.

Therefore before the aforementioned changes you will probably not find many if any 3yo fillies challenging older mares or older male horse in “open company” at the graded level because it just wasn’t the mindset in racing at the time to do such a thing.

[ghostyapper]

In the Travers, Summer Bird ran a great race. Again though, she demolished him at Monmouth a few weeks prior. What was the challenge in that race, again, before it was run?

Alot of people were intrigued to see a matchup with quality road. You can't, on 1 hand, use his showing in the race as proof he wasn't a serious threat to her before the race, but ignore summer birds victory because before the race she had already beaten him.

The Travers was the more challenging spot and they passed on it, you cannot deny it.

[ghostyapper]

I tend to agree, although I understand where the 10f brigade is coming from as this distance has historically been used as the guage to measure one's ability at a classic distance.

I look at it this way, I'd be more impressed with a 3yo filly defeating a group of older males in late summer at 9f, especially if the fractions are anything like last year's Woodward (46 1/5, 1:09 3/5, 1:35 1/5... set by tomorrow's particpant Past the Point and if I recall correctly I think the track speed was above par) than I would if she had participated in this year's Personal Ensign at 10f defeating a group of older fillies and mares

And how about the Travers?

[Hanover1]

Hindsight, what are you talking about? I never considered Careless Jewell performance in the Alabama or Icon Project win in the Personal Ensign as reference points in making my criticism about Rachel not being entered in either one of those races.

If you think Rachel is immune to criticism because she now has star power you are living in la la land. I have said and am convinced that her performances in the Mother Goose and the Haskell are two of the best performances by any gender in the last 25 years.

But those performances don’t make her great; they do give her a start toward greatness.

Also I do believe that both Asmussen and Jackson is skeptical about sending her out for the 1 ¼ distance.

Far as she doing things that no 3yo filly has done before is laughable because in recent years both Winning Colors and Genuine Risk ran against 3 year old males in the KY Derby and won. And if you believe running an exceptional 3yo filly against a mediocre field of older horses in September is historic, then racing is taking a giant step backwards.
Pretty much sums up my argument all along....well posted.

[Java Gold@TFT]

Far as she doing things that no 3yo filly has done before is laughable because in recent years both Winning Colors and Genuine Risk ran against 3 year old males in the KY Derby and won. And if you believe running an exceptional 3yo filly against a mediocre field of older horses in September is historic, then racing is taking a giant step backwards.
You can't be even close to serious. In recent years? (1980 and 1989 are RECENT years? Try 20-30 years ago. Then there is the minor fact that Jackson didn't own Rachel before the Derby and she was never pointed there and in fact wasn't even nominated to the TC races. Jackson bought her and less than two weeks later threw her to the wolves against the first 4 finishers in the KY Derby. She beat every one of them regardless how you feel about her winning distance - SHE WON THE RACE. Why don't you compare her to every other filly who won the Preakness because she wasn't ever going to be enterred in the Derby. Oh yeah, you may not have been born before the last filly won the Preakness.

Appreciate the greatness that you will be able to see this weekend. She is something so special that even if other trainers will stand up to her, they admit that they have big fears facing a 3yo filly with older males.

[Bobzilla]

And how about the Travers?


I understand your point, and I don't disagree that it would be good to have a 10f win on her resume. At this time I think her people are looking at 1 or 2 more races for the year so they have to pick the spots that make sense to them. She has already defeated 3yo males on two occasions so they can take the position that they have nothing more to prove in that department. Furthermore I'm sure they would have liked to have raised potential syndication value for stablemate Kensei. Now if your argument is that she might lose a bit of her edge going that extra panel and her "B" game (10f) may be vulnerable to say a Summer Bird's "A" game (10f) at this point, I wouldn't say that that's an unreasonable position to have. My gutt feel is that she would probably be able to hold him off, depending on fractions of course, but it might be closer than what people think. I'm just not inclined to believe that Assmussen/Jackson are going out of their way to avoid 10f as much as yourself and others feel they are.

[joanied]

You can't be even close to serious. In recent years? (1980 and 1989 are RECENT years? Try 20-30 years ago. Then there is the minor fact that Jackson didn't own Rachel before the Derby and she was never pointed there and in fact wasn't even nominated to the TC races. Jackson bought her and less than two weeks later threw her to the wolves against the first 4 finishers in the KY Derby. She beat every one of them regardless how you feel about her winning distance - SHE WON THE RACE. Why don't you compare her to every other filly who won the Preakness because she wasn't ever going to be enterred in the Derby. Oh yeah, you may not have been born before the last filly won the Preakness.

Appreciate the greatness that you will be able to see this weekend. She is something so special that even if other trainers will stand up to her, they admit that they have big fears facing a 3yo filly with older males.

:ThmbUp: :ThmbUp: :ThmbUp:

[11cashcall]

Hindsight, what are you talking about? I never considered Careless Jewell performance in the Alabama or Icon Project win in the Personal Ensign as reference points in making my criticism about Rachel not being entered in either one of those races.

If you think Rachel is immune to criticism because she now has star power you are living in la la land. I have said and am convinced that her performances in the Mother Goose and the Haskell are two of the best performances by any gender in the last 25 years.

But those performances don’t make her great; they do give her a start toward greatness.

Also I do believe that both Asmussen and Jackson is skeptical about sending her out for the 1 ¼ distance.

Far as she doing things that no 3yo filly has done before is laughable because in recent years both Winning Colors and Genuine Risk ran against 3 year old males in the KY Derby and won. And if you believe running an exceptional 3yo filly against a mediocre field of older horses in September is historic, then racing is taking a giant step backwards.


People seem to forget that the previous connections choose not to run her in this yrs. Derby. They seem to have had a very good gauge on her abilitys,& that obviously was passed along to the new connections.


The one thing that realy errs me is Jackson's commintment not to go to BC this yr.RA ran a really good race over the Kee surface & while i understand that each surface is unique,hopefully by returning next yr she'll have matured more & will take those steps fans had hoped to see this yr.

[Cratos]

Oh, cj...you just can't please everyone...and some folks just never seem happy about anything...bash, bash, bash...I suppose when she kicks ass up there tomorrow, this guy will be back to say she beat nothing....give me a break!!

Have a great weekend, cj :jump:


This “guy” as you have euphuistically characterize me never “bashed” Rachel, but having seen the likes of many great fillies and mares over last 42 years in watching and betting on racehorses it is difficult for me to get excited by a 3yo filly that is very good, but not great.

You might get excited and bestow accolades beyond approach onto Rachel and I applaud that kind of fan enthusiasm and loyalty, but other race fans should also be applauded for their difference of opinion.

Incidentally, I picked Rachel to win the Woodward easily and if she doesn’t that wouldn’t change my mind about her ability or talent

[Cratos]

You can't be even close to serious. In recent years? (1980 and 1989 are RECENT years? Try 20-30 years ago. Then there is the minor fact that Jackson didn't own Rachel before the Derby and she was never pointed there and in fact wasn't even nominated to the TC races. Jackson bought her and less than two weeks later threw her to the wolves against the first 4 finishers in the KY Derby. She beat every one of them regardless how you feel about her winning distance - SHE WON THE RACE. Why don't you compare her to every other filly who won the Preakness because she wasn't ever going to be enterred in the Derby. Oh yeah, you may not have been born before the last filly won the Preakness.

Appreciate the greatness that you will be able to see this weekend. She is something so special that even if other trainers will stand up to her, they admit that they have big fears facing a 3yo filly with older males.

Please be logical, “recent” in this sense of the word is not chronological, but the frequency of the incidence; try and make a salient argument that is relevant.

[ghostyapper]

I understand your point, and I don't disagree that it would be good to have a 10f win on her resume. At this time I think her people are looking at 1 or 2 more races for the year so they have to pick the spots that make sense to them. She has already defeated 3yo males on two occasions so they can take the position that they have nothing more to prove in that department. Furthermore I'm sure they would have liked to have raised potential syndication value for stablemate Kensei. Now if your argument is that she might lose a bit of her edge going that extra panel and her "B" game (10f) may be vulnerable to say a Summer Bird's "A" game (10f) at this point, I wouldn't say that that's an unreasonable position to have. My gutt feel is that she would probably be able to hold him off, depending on fractions of course, but it might be closer than what people think. I'm just not inclined to believe that Assmussen/Jackson are going out of their way to avoid 10f as much as yourself and others feel they are.

Fair points. So do you believe (assuming she comes out of the woodward in good order) that they will run her in the jcgc?

[cj]

Alot of people were intrigued to see a matchup with quality road. You can't, on 1 hand, use his showing in the race as proof he wasn't a serious threat to her before the race, but ignore summer birds victory because before the race she had already beaten him.

The Travers was the more challenging spot and they passed on it, you cannot deny it.

I don't see any way in the world the Travers was a more challenging spot looking at both before the races were run. It isn't like this has been the greatest crop of three year old colts, but suddenly they are supposed to be tougher than G1 older males?

I'm not alone, check out Steven Crist's article (http://www.drf.com/drfNewsArticle.do?NID=106950&subs=0&arc=0).

[cj]

One thing that everyone seems to be forgetting is that females are rarely ever tasked to go 10f or farther on dirt. Even the Ladies' Classic, formerly the Distaff, is run at 9f. The Oaks? 9f. That distance is pretty much the Classic distance for females on dirt, like it or not. The 10f is only being mentioned because her superb ability makes races against her own sex a joke.

I don't remember Azeri winning at 10f, and she was supposedly great.

[cj]

This “guy” as you have euphuistically characterize me never “bashed” Rachel, but having seen the likes of many great fillies and mares over last 42 years in watching and betting on racehorses it is difficult for me to get excited by a 3yo filly that is very good, but not great.

You might get excited and bestow accolades beyond approach onto Rachel and I applaud that kind of fan enthusiasm and loyalty, but other race fans should also be applauded for their difference of opinion.

Incidentally, I picked Rachel to win the Woodward easily and if she doesn’t that wouldn’t change my mind about her ability or talent

I'm curious, what 3yo fillies have been great in your mind? Or is it impossible for a 3yo filly to be great?

[rastajenk]

That's right, and the presence or lack of a 10f win on her resume will have no effect on her life after racing, or her Hall of Fame eligibility, or anything at all.

However, this race sets up as potentially disappointing, big-time. If she loses, we'll have to listen to the nabobs of negativity congratulating themselves. If she wins, it will just ratchet up the intensity of the dialogue even more, especially as the Breeders Cup approaches with or without her.

[ghostyapper]

One thing that everyone seems to be forgetting is that females are rarely ever tasked to go 10f or farther on dirt. Even the Ladies' Classic, formerly the Distaff, is run at 9f. The Oaks? 9f. That distance is pretty much the Classic distance for females on dirt, like it or not. The 10f is only being mentioned because her superb ability makes races against her own sex a joke.

I don't remember Azeri winning at 10f, and she was supposedly great.

Good point. Though its nice to have the personal ensign and alabama on your resume, 9 Furlongs is the "classic" female race, where the majority of the money races are run.

My whole thing with rachel and 10 furlongs comes from the attitude of her fans after the preakness or after any 10+ furlong male race is run, saying she would have dominated.

By the way if she is gonna venture outside her division and face G1 males I don't think it's crazy to ask her to show up at 10 furlong races. Azeri never won but at least she tried. By avoiding 10 furlong races all jackson does is allow the doubters to continue their argument and allow her fan club to continue to believe she can beat everybody at 10 furlongs when she hasn't beat ANYBODY

[ghostyapper]

I don't see any way in the world the Travers was a more challenging spot looking at both before the races were run. It isn't like this has been the greatest crop of three year old colts, but suddenly they are supposed to be tougher than G1 older males?

I'm not alone, check out Steven Crist's article (http://www.drf.com/drfNewsArticle.do?NID=106950&subs=0&arc=0).

The dirt handicap division has been terrible this year, there's no denying it. For crist to use total races won and total career earnings when comparing 3yo and 4yo is just idiotic.

This is not a great 3yo crop no but it's better than the current handicap division

[Steve R]

One thing that everyone seems to be forgetting is that females are rarely ever tasked to go 10f or farther on dirt. Even the Ladies' Classic, formerly the Distaff, is run at 9f. The Oaks? 9f. That distance is pretty much the Classic distance for females on dirt, like it or not. The 10f is only being mentioned because her superb ability makes races against her own sex a joke.

I don't remember Azeri winning at 10f, and she was supposedly great.

That's right. Azeri lost by a length and a quarter to Storm Flag Flying in the 2004 Personal Ensign, giving up the lead in the drive. I also think the 10f thing is being overdone. These days, many 10f dirt/AWS horses are just too slow to win at shorter distances. In fact, if Summer Bird never wins a top class race at less than 10f it will be a negative for his stud prospects.

[Cratos]

I'm curious, what 3yo fillies have been great in your mind? Or is it impossible for a 3yo filly to be great?

A good question and an easy answer; therefore the following 3yo fillies are just a few fillies that I consider "great" and your question has limited my list to “3yo fillies only.”

However not in any particular order of preference, I would consider the following 3yo fillies great: Glorious Song (she might not have run as a 3yo, I don’t remember), Althea (she beat the boys in a G1 race), Open Mind, Ruffian, Go for Wand, Shuvee, Ta Wee, and Azeri.

There are probably many more great fillies that I cannot recall and yes Rachel Alexandra might make that list if she continues with her winning exploits.

[Hanover1]

If she is to be compared as equal to this stock, imo give her the 8 lbs she is getting. That to me tells the whole story. Let her carry the weight. Aint never gonna happen, but a horse is a horse, and if she can run up against the clock in that fashion, lets even the playing field.

[JBmadera]

This “guy” as you have euphuistically characterize me never “bashed” Rachel, but having seen the likes of many great fillies and mares over last 42 years in watching and betting on racehorses it is difficult for me to get excited by a 3yo filly that is very good, but not great.

You might get excited and bestow accolades beyond approach onto Rachel and I applaud that kind of fan enthusiasm and loyalty, but other race fans should also be applauded for their difference of opinion.

Incidentally, I picked Rachel to win the Woodward easily and if she doesn’t that wouldn’t change my mind about her ability or talent

I agree. just because someone doesn't go overboard with support for the current super horse doesn't mean that their opinion isn't worth consideration.

not sure yet who I'll be playing but it won't be RA, and if I cannot come up with a viable play then I'll pass.

gl to all.

jb

[ghostyapper]

That's right. Azeri lost by a length and a quarter to Storm Flag Flying in the 2004 Personal Ensign, giving up the lead in the drive. I also think the 10f thing is being overdone. These days, many 10f dirt/AWS horses are just too slow to win at shorter distances. In fact, if Summer Bird never wins a top class race at less than 10f it will be a negative for his stud prospects.

I remember the race well. It was right after she beat Sightseek to reclaim her throne. They went 6 furlongs in 1.09:60

Rachel ran 6 furlongs in the preakness in 1.11 and her fan club were screaming about how what a terrible trip and suicidal pace duel it was. :D

[Steve R]

The dirt handicap division has been terrible this year, there's no denying it. For crist to use total races won and total career earnings when comparing 3yo and 4yo is just idiotic.

This is not a great 3yo crop no but it's better than the current handicap division

That's your opinion, of course. My figures, which incorporate pace and final time into the final number, say otherwise. The top half dozen figures in races for 3yos or for older horses going at least a mile on dirt/AWS belong to Rachel Alexandra, No Advantage, Bullsbay, Macho Again, Kensei and Einstein in that order. Of the top 30, only seven were earned by 3yos. I would conclude that the current handicap division, although not stellar in historical terms, is, apart from the filly, better than the 3yos.

[rastajenk]

As it almost always is.

[Zenyatta To Crush]

A good question and an easy answer; therefore the following 3yo fillies are just a few fillies that I consider "great" and your question has limited my list to “3yo fillies only.”

However not in any particular order of preference, I would consider the following 3yo fillies great: Glorious Song (she might not have run as a 3yo, I don’t remember), Althea (she beat the boys in a G1 race), Open Mind, Ruffian, Go for Wand, Shuvee, Ta Wee, and Azeri.

There are probably many more great fillies that I cannot recall and yes Rachel Alexandra might make that list if she continues with her winning exploits.
So you think Ruffian is great, but not Rachel, huh? Ruffian must have beaten the boys many times then...oh wait, she never beat them huh? Well Ruffian must have been running in huge fields and against tough competition then, no wait, the only time she ran against more than 6 horses was in her maiden.

Sorry, but Rachel has already proven more than Ruffian. I think you believe Ruffian was great because she was undefeated up until her breakdown, and people have a fascination with undefeated horses. Maybe also because they made a movie about her...I don't know. The point is that you seem very bothered by the fact that many people on this board consider Rachel to be one of the greatest female racehorses ever, and now you are holding a grudge against her because of that. You will label her as a very very "good" horse, but not great. Even if she wins the Woodward, that won't be good enough for you.

I'm not saying Rachel's the best horse I've seen in my lifetime, but she has definitely proven more than Ruffian at this point, so you can't call Ruffian great without also calling Rachel great.

[ryesteve]

Sorry, but Rachel has already proven more than Ruffian.Trying to downplay the accomplishments of Ruffian is not a good way to bolster your argument, particularly when his list of "great fillies" had some much softer targets for you to shoot at.

[Cratos]

So you think Ruffian is great, but not Rachel, huh? Ruffian must have beaten the boys many times then...oh wait, she never beat them huh? Well Ruffian must have been running in huge fields and against tough competition then, no wait, the only time she ran against more than 6 horses was in her maiden.

Sorry, but Rachel has already proven more than Ruffian. I think you believe Ruffian was great because she was undefeated up until her breakdown, and people have a fascination with undefeated horses. Maybe also because they made a movie about her...I don't know. The point is that you seem very bothered by the fact that many people on this board consider Rachel to be one of the greatest female racehorses ever, and now you are holding a grudge against her because of that. You will label her as a very very "good" horse, but not great. Even if she wins the Woodward, that won't be good enough for you.

I'm not saying Rachel's the best horse I've seen in my lifetime, but she has definitely proven more than Ruffian at this point, so you can't call Ruffian great without also calling Rachel great.

From reading your post I see that you have the power to “tell” someone who they are and what they think; and that is a dangerous precedence because it says that you don’t know what you are talking about.

I am not holding a “grudge” against Rachel as you say that I am and why would I? Your spurious fuzzy logic is specious at best.

Ruffian is not great because I made her great; she is great because Ruffian made herself great.

For the record and a footnote to her greatness is her leading the 1975 Mother Goose every step of the way in a winning effort and still ran the last 1/8th mile of the race in a sizzling 12.2 seconds. If that wasn’t enough she wins the 1 ½ mile CCA Oaks on cruise control and clicked the last ¼ mile in 24.6 seconds.

If all of this is not enough on her resume she equal 8 stakes records, tied 2 track records and was never headed at any point of call in any of her victories. Did her injury-lost to Foolish Pleasure tarnish her racing record? Not in the slightest because her greatness had clearly been established at the time of her injury.

If this is a “grudge” against Rachel you have my humble apologies.

[ghostyapper]

That's your opinion, of course. My figures, which incorporate pace and final time into the final number, say otherwise. The top half dozen figures in races for 3yos or for older horses going at least a mile on dirt/AWS belong to Rachel Alexandra, No Advantage, Bullsbay, Macho Again, Kensei and Einstein in that order. Of the top 30, only seven were earned by 3yos. I would conclude that the current handicap division, although not stellar in historical terms, is, apart from the filly, better than the 3yos.

Your numbers are flawed. Quality Road's GP races were better than anything I've seen from a handicap horse this year yet you rate several ahead of him.

Kensei??? I wouldn't rank his jim dandy in the top 7 of races run by 3yo this year.

[joanied]

This “guy” as you have euphuistically characterize me never “bashed” Rachel, but having seen the likes of many great fillies and mares over last 42 years in watching and betting on racehorses it is difficult for me to get excited by a 3yo filly that is very good, but not great.

You might get excited and bestow accolades beyond approach onto Rachel and I applaud that kind of fan enthusiasm and loyalty, but other race fans should also be applauded for their difference of opinion.

Incidentally, I picked Rachel to win the Woodward easily and if she doesn’t that wouldn’t change my mind about her ability or talent

Guess your 'cherry picking' her spots had something to do with it...glad you have Rachel to win the Woodward, but you don't seem to want to acknowledge what she's accomplished so far...saying she's 'very good'...she's way better than that!

I have also seen all the great fillies and mares over the last 42 years, including Ruffian...in fact, we ran a filly in Ruffian's CCAO to finish 2nd...Ruffian accomplished incredible things, but, if not for her breaking all those track records, she might not be considered one of the great ones...she ran against pretty much the same bunch of fillies in every race (and I saw them all, except the one time in NJ), and they were not a great crop of fillies...so don't say they are cherry picking Rachel's spots...because Ruffian could have been shipped out of NY to face a better calibur of fillies, or faced colts (other than Foolish, which doesn't really count)...it's sorta like Zenyatta being undefeated, but so many are complaining that she is running against the same bunch of mediocore fillies every race...no one is calling Zenyatta great...because she isn't running against fillies that could possibly beat her...
and Rachel has done some damage to track/stakes records also...and if she ran like Ruffian did...hell bent and all out, maybe she'd have a few more records to her credit...but racing today is way different than in Ruffian's days...and wether or not RA could go wire to wire and break records is mute, because her connections would never allow it to happen...
Rachel has done it all, and will add to her list of accomplishments tomorrow...

different strokes for different folks...I'll go ahead and call RA 'great'...you go ahead and call her 'very good'...and I'll even apologize for saying you were bashing her...because you are right...we are all entitled to our opinions.
How's that:)

[Steve R]

Your numbers are flawed. Quality Road's GP races were better than anything I've seen from a handicap horse this year yet you rate several ahead of him.

Kensei??? I wouldn't rank his jim dandy in the top 7 of races run by 3yo this year.

Again, you are entitled to your opinion. In fact, Quality Road's Fountain of Youth was ranked slightly below Einstein's Santa Anita Handicap and ranks as the best FOY in the last 11 years on my scale. His Florida Derby was just average at best IMO, ranking 8th of the last 11. I believe this result is consistent with his declining ability as the distances increased. And it wasn't Kensei's Jim Dandy that propelled him into the top half dozen. It was his Dwyer. Third fastest in almost 20 years since the distance dropped to 8 1/2f. Without even considering the pace factor, the Dwyer was 10 ticks faster than par while a $10K older male claimer at a mile was 3 ticks fast as was the 10f Suburban, the other two races on the card at a mile or longer.

[classhandicapper]

The dirt handicap division has been terrible this year, there's no denying it. For crist to use total races won and total career earnings when comparing 3yo and 4yo is just idiotic.

This is not a great 3yo crop no but it's better than the current handicap division

I'm going to have to agree with this.

I super duper respect Crist as both a handicapper and writer, but IMO using races won and total earning was a silly way of comparing the fields because the older horses have had many more opportunities to both win races and earn money. He should have at least normalized it for starts.

IMO, there is no question this is a very below average group of older horses in the Woodward. Personally, I rate the Woodward as even or slightly better than the Travers on a quality/depth basis. However, even though I am not a huge fan of this 3YO crop, I think when some of the best 3YOs from the Travers eventually mix it up with the horses in the Woodward, the 3YOs are going to prove to be better.

All that said, IMO this not an easy spot for RA. I think we are going to learn a lot more from this race that we did from her walkovers against very weak fillies and her big win in the slop. This one may end up being more like the Preakness, but with better horses than Mine that Bird coming at her
late. She going to have to fire a big shot to win. Hope she does because I love watching greatness.

[Cratos]

Guess your 'cherry picking' her spots had something to do with it...glad you have Rachel to win the Woodward, but you don't seem to want to acknowledge what she's accomplished so far...saying she's 'very good'...she's way better than that!

I have also seen all the great fillies and mares over the last 42 years, including Ruffian...in fact, we ran a filly in Ruffian's CCAO to finish 2nd...Ruffian accomplished incredible things, but, if not for her breaking all those track records, she might not be considered one of the great ones...she ran against pretty much the same bunch of fillies in every race (and I saw them all, except the one time in NJ), and they were not a great crop of fillies...so don't say they are cherry picking Rachel's spots...because Ruffian could have been shipped out of NY to face a better calibur of fillies, or faced colts (other than Foolish, which doesn't really count)...it's sorta like Zenyatta being undefeated, but so many are complaining that she is running against the same bunch of mediocore fillies every race...no one is calling Zenyatta great...because she isn't running against fillies that could possibly beat her...
and Rachel has done some damage to track/stakes records also...and if she ran like Ruffian did...hell bent and all out, maybe she'd have a few more records to her credit...but racing today is way different than in Ruffian's days...and wether or not RA could go wire to wire and break records is mute, because her connections would never allow it to happen...
Rachel has done it all, and will add to her list of accomplishments tomorrow...

different strokes for different folks...I'll go ahead and call RA 'great'...you go ahead and call her 'very good'...and I'll even apologize for saying you were bashing her...because you are right...we are all entitled to our opinions.
How's that:)

I don’t get it, if one articulates a contrarian opinion they are “bashing” Rachel and if one says she is very good that falls short of the truth.

Also during the time of Ruffian, Forego, etc. not many big name horses shipped around the country. Most east coast horses ran either at the NYRA tracks, Monmouth, the old Garden State, Hialeah, Delaware and Gulfstream. Yes, some did venture to the west coast as did Seattle Slew and to Arlington in the Midwest as did Dr. Fager and Buckpassser, but in the 60s and 70s with the exception of the Triple Crown races, NYRA was the place to be.

Getting back to Ruffian and Rachel, I assume (and that is bad) that we can both agree that the assessment that being bantered about on this forum is conjecture and can never be proven. If you think that I am a “Rachel-hater” then think that because I am not. I just have a difference of an opinion of her than you at this time.

The tote board at Saratoga on Saturday will express many differences of opinion about Rachel from the betting public and if she wins the nay Sayers will be like a church mouse with their quietness and if she loses you hear from everybody about how certain they were that she would lose.

After all this is horseracing and I will be there at the Spa on Saturday to enjoy win or lose.

[bisket]

How hilarious is that? Cherry picked a spot? Here we have a THREE YEAR OLD FILLY that is taking on older, GRADE 1, colts in early September.

Just out of curiosity, how many three year old colts have tried the Woodward lately?
one curlin who was running from street sense. who of course won the travers

[bisket]

That's your opinion, of course. My figures, which incorporate pace and final time into the final number, say otherwise. The top half dozen figures in races for 3yos or for older horses going at least a mile on dirt/AWS belong to Rachel Alexandra, No Advantage, Bullsbay, Macho Again, Kensei and Einstein in that order. Of the top 30, only seven were earned by 3yos. I would conclude that the current handicap division, although not stellar in historical terms, is, apart from the filly, better than the 3yos.
kensei? that rates two :lol: :lol:

[Hanover1]

kensei? that rates two :lol: :lol:
Is this off recent form? QR is a top 3yr old off spring performance alone-"what have you done for me lately" cannot take away his Fla Derby performance. He will return, and soon.......

[joanied]

I don’t get it, if one articulates a contrarian opinion they are “bashing” Rachel and if one says she is very good that falls short of the truth.

Also during the time of Ruffian, Forego, etc. not many big name horses shipped around the country. Most east coast horses ran either at the NYRA tracks, Monmouth, the old Garden State, Hialeah, Delaware and Gulfstream. Yes, some did venture to the west coast as did Seattle Slew and to Arlington in the Midwest as did Dr. Fager and Buckpassser, but in the 60s and 70s with the exception of the Triple Crown races, NYRA was the place to be.

Getting back to Ruffian and Rachel, I assume (and that is bad) that we can both agree that the assessment that being bantered about on this forum is conjecture and can never be proven. If you think that I am a “Rachel-hater” then think that because I am not. I just have a difference of an opinion of her than you at this time.

The tote board at Saratoga on Saturday will express many differences of opinion about Rachel from the betting public and if she wins the nay Sayers will be like a church mouse with their quietness and if she loses you hear from everybody about how certain they were that she would lose.

After all this is horseracing and I will be there at the Spa on Saturday to enjoy win or lose.

Cratos...I will venture to repeat the last paragraph in my reply to you...

"different strokes for different folks...I'll go ahead and call RA 'great'...you go ahead and call her 'very good'...and I'll even apologize for saying you were bashing her...because you are right...we are all entitled to our opinions.
How's that:)"

I guess an apology isn't enough? OK...you made very good points and if this was a contest...you win!!

No doubt you will thoroughly enjoy being at the Spa for this great day in racing...I'd give a lot to be there...I used to love being up there, it was like a working vacation for us backstretch folks...
enjoy the day, may all your bets come in and I hope you will be among the 1,000's that come to see a little bit of horse racing history being made.
:) :) :) (no hard feelings:) )

[bisket]

She already won a major race against major competition at 9.5 furlongs.

Her pedigree suggests 10 furlongs is WELL WITHIN her scope.

Why in the world would her connections be worried about an extra HALF furlong given the above evidence??
i beg to differ. medag dor couldn't win a race past 1 1/8 mile to save his life. so its pretty important that she win at 1 1/4 mile.

[ghostyapper]

one curlin who was running from street sense. who of course won the travers

that was the jcgc

[bisket]

that was the jcgc
nope he ran in the woodward first im gonna look this up the haskell may have been run closer to the travers that year

[andymays]

http://blog.timesunion.com/horseracing/jess-jackson-has-some-concerns-about-rachel-alexandra/3131/

Excerpt:

“I worry that their strategy might be to have her out early and then hook her and try to close and then beat her,” Jackson said by phone from his California this week. “I see some of them teaming up — not unethically, teaming to use tactics to get her into trouble.”

[bisket]

these horses are crafty vets. you can do more with experienced horses as far as running a race that hurts the fav. she's got speed though and thats hard to pull shananigans with. if i were borel i'd get her going early and then try to relax her on the backstretch. she's got the ideal post if she breaks well. she'll be in the 2 path most likely around the first turn. all she has to do is run to maitain that spot, and i don't see how they can beat her. she's got the cruising speed to maintain position. now if she was outside i'd worry, but she's in an ideal spot.

[Cratos]

http://blog.timesunion.com/horseracing/jess-jackson-has-some-concerns-about-rachel-alexandra/3131/

Excerpt:

“I worry that their strategy might be to have her out early and then hook her and try to close and then beat her,” Jackson said by phone from his California this week. “I see some of them teaming up — not unethically, teaming to use tactics to get her into trouble.”

Lets be honest there isn’t any horse in the Woodward as quick as Rachel and there will not be any “ganging up” because there isn’t any gang. Summer Bird connections put him on the pace early in the Haskell and he was destroyed.

Therefore in the Woodward the horse that might go early beside Rachel is Past the Point, but he is a miler and he doesn’t have Rachel’s speed or quickness.

Assume that the mile is run in 1:35 and Rachel gets the last 8th in 13 seconds then which horse in the race is capable of running a 1-1/8 mile in 1:47 and change? There isn’t any and if Rachel put Past the Point away with a 1:34 effort the so-called gang would be 5-10 lengths behind and Rachel could cruise home in 14 seconds and still win.

Can there be an upset? Yes, there can and it will only happen if Borel doesn’t allow Rachel to run her race early and try closing with her late.

[bisket]

that was the jcgc
yup the haskell was close to the travers that year. lawyer won the woodward in record time

[ryesteve]

i beg to differ. medag dor couldn't win a race past 1 1/8 mile to save his life. so its pretty important that she win at 1 1/4 mile.Important for whom? Except that it might get a couple of anal types around here to finally shut up, what exactly would happen after a win at 10f that makes it so "important"?

[cj]

one curlin who was running from street sense. who of course won the travers

I'm pretty sure Curlin ran in, and won, the JCGC, not the Woodward. He won it twice, at 3 and 4. He won the Woodward at 4.

[cj]

Good point. Though its nice to have the personal ensign and alabama on your resume, 9 Furlongs is the "classic" female race, where the majority of the money races are run.

My whole thing with rachel and 10 furlongs comes from the attitude of her fans after the preakness or after any 10+ furlong male race is run, saying she would have dominated.

By the way if she is gonna venture outside her division and face G1 males I don't think it's crazy to ask her to show up at 10 furlong races. Azeri never won but at least she tried. By avoiding 10 furlong races all jackson does is allow the doubters to continue their argument and allow her fan club to continue to believe she can beat everybody at 10 furlongs when she hasn't beat ANYBODY

Azeri tried against fillies and mares. Do you honestly think Rachel wouldn't beat her own type, those she has been demolishing by twenty lengths, at 10f? What would be the point?

Can't she take it one step at a time? First males, then older males, then maybe at 10f? Heaven forbid he doesn't destroy the filly this year and she survives to run another. What a dolt Jackson must be.

[Show Me the Wire]

Lets be honest there isn’t any horse in the Woodward as quick as Rachel and there will not be any “ganging up” because there isn’t any gang. Summer Bird connections put him on the pace early in the Haskell and he was destroyed................................

.................Can there be an upset? Yes, there can and it will only happen if Borel doesn’t allow Rachel to run her race early and try closing with her late.

MY prediction, she loses. Why? Jocks enjoy race riding to beat the favorite. Some jock will use his mount early, the one whom feels he does not have a legitimate chance to win, to force the pace and tire RA for the stretch run or Borel tries the closing route, in an attempt to fool the other jocks. Another possibility is a poor start, which may leave RA in an uncomfortable position.

[keilan]

Calvin Borel will be the undoing of this filly one day, his arrogance won't allow him to shut it down before she gives her all. She is better than anyone she'll face tomorrow but if she gets gang-banged..............

[NYPlayer]

I think the Woodward is going to be the difference between Rachel merely being a good philly and being a great one. I'm skeptical of her chances since she's facing a tough group of older males and if she does not reproduce her top form, she'll likely lose.

[ghostyapper]

Azeri tried against fillies and mares. Do you honestly think Rachel wouldn't beat her own type, those she has been demolishing by twenty lengths, at 10f? What would be the point?

Can't she take it one step at a time? First males, then older males, then maybe at 10f? Heaven forbid he doesn't destroy the filly this year and she survives to run another. What a dolt Jackson must be.

Azeri also ran in the 04 bc classic. She lost by 9 but she still showed up.

[RXB]

I think the Woodward is going to be the difference between Rachel merely being a good philly and being a great one. I'm skeptical of her chances since she's facing a tough group of older males and if she does not reproduce her top form, she'll likely lose.

I wouldn't call this a "tough group" of older males; I'd call it a very weak, slow group by Grade 1 standards. Horse races are not perfectly predictable events but I can't find a reason to take a stand against her. She seems clearly and consistently faster in terms of both pace and final time-- and I say that even though I've rated each of her last four races a bit slower than most other figure makers. Looks like a solid favourite to me so I won't be betting against her.

[RXB]

i beg to differ. medag dor couldn't win a race past 1 1/8 mile to save his life. so its pretty important that she win at 1 1/4 mile.

Medaglia D'Oro won the Travers.

[Java Gold@TFT]

So MDO won the Travers at 10F and finished second in the BC Classic twice, the Dubai World Cup and the Belmont but couldn't run a lick past 9F?

Rachels DP - 3-2-7-2-0. How many times these days do you see ANY points in the stamina category? MDO was sired by El Prado who I do believe will eventually get on the chef de race list as either a C or CS. His sire is Saddler's Wells who is already listed as CS. She's got Northern Dancer on both sides of the family. On her dam side she has Fortyniner who won the Travers and finished 2nd in the KY Derby.

Just what part of her breeding suggests that she can't run an extra 1/16th of a mile? The yapper has already admitted that she can beat fillies at 10F but she can't be great until she beats colts at 10F. Completely ludicrous.

[sammy the sage]

Graveyard of Champions........

[depalma113]

I remember the race well. It was right after she beat Sightseek to reclaim her throne. They went 6 furlongs in 1.09:60

Rachel ran 6 furlongs in the preakness in 1.11 and her fan club were screaming about how what a terrible trip and suicidal pace duel it was. :D

You are comparing what a six year-old mare did to what a three year-old filly did? Why don't you tell me what kind of pace numbers Azeri was running as a three year-old? :lol:

Oh that's right, Azeri didn't start racing until November of her three year-old season and didn't try two turns until she turned four.

[bisket]

under the right conditions rachel should have no problem getting 1 1/4 mile, but the conditions have to right. this can be said about any horse. i've said this a million times and i'll say it again. you're swimming up stream if your playing horses like rachel, hard spun, medag dor, smarty jones, lawyer ron etc. at 1 1/4 mile. as a handicapper heres how i look at a race with horses of this nature in them compared to horses like summer bird and say curlin. summer bird and curly will run his race in a classic distance NO MATTER WHAT THE PACE SCENERIO LOOKS LIKE. now horses like rachel and these others i listed CAN RUN THE CLASSIC DISTANCE FASTER THAN say curly and summer IF THEY GET A FAVORABLE PACE SCENERIO, GOOD POSITION, AND ARE IN THE FORM OF THEIR LIFE. let me put it to you this way lets take curlin and lawyer ron. lawyer was in the best form of his life that summer of 2007. there's absolutely no way curlin would have beat lawyer that summer at 1 1/8 mile, and if lawyer didn't get pressured in the first 6 furs in the jcgc curlin wouldn't have beat him in that race AT 1 1/4 MILE either. what i'm saying is lawyer can win at 1 1/8 mile no matter the pace, but at 1 1/4 mile if he doesn't get pressured he wins, but if he does he's toast that last 1/16. anyone who doesn't think that last 1/16 doesn't matter has something left to learn in this game. ONE LENGTH IS EQUAL TO 1/5 OF A SECOND. FASTER THAN YOU BLINK AN EYE. 50 YARDS MAKES A DIFFERENCE!!!!!!!!
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dOtkuPda-ik
now when did curlin gain most of his fround the last 1/16 th !!!!! i had curlin in this race because of exactly the reasons i stated above.

[depalma113]

under the right conditions rachel should have no problem getting 1 1/4 mile, but the conditions have to right. this can be said about any horse. i've said this a million times and i'll say it again. you're swimming up stream if your playing horses like rachel, hard spun, medag dor, smarty jones, lawyer ron etc. at 1 1/4 mile. as a handicapper heres how i look at a race with horses of this nature in them compared to horses like summer bird and say curlin. summer bird and curly will run his race in a classic distance NO MATTER WHAT THE PACE SCENERIO LOOKS LIKE. now horses like rachel and these others i listed CAN RUN THE CLASSIC DISTANCE FASTER THAN say curly and summer IF THEY GET A FAVORABLE PACE SCENERIO, GOOD POSITION, AND ARE IN THE FORM OF THEIR LIFE. let me put it to you this way lets take curlin and lawyer ron. lawyer was in the best form of his life that summer of 2007. there's absolutely no way curlin would have beat lawyer that summer at 1 1/8 mile, and if lawyer didn't get pressured in the first 6 furs in the jcgc curlin wouldn't have beat him in that race AT 1 1/4 MILE either. what i'm saying is lawyer can win at 1 1/8 mile no matter the pace, but at 1 1/4 mile if he doesn't get pressured he wins, but if he does he's toast that last 1/16. anyone who doesn't think that last 1/16 doesn't matter has something left to learn in this game. ONE LENGTH IS EQUAL TO 1/5 OF A SECOND. FASTER THAN YOU BLINK AN EYE. 50 YARDS MAKES A DIFFERENCE!!!!!!!!
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dOtkuPda-ik
now when did curlin gain most of his fround the last 1/16 th !!!!! i had curlin in this race because of exactly the reasons i stated above.

There is no evidence that the horse has any trouble getting a mile and a quarter, other than some flawed logic based on the finish of the Preakness.

Rachel Alexandra is much better horse now than she was in the Preakness and yet all the naysayers refuse to see how much the horse has improved since that race.

Anyone who wants to bet money that the horse will get beat at a mile and a quarter based on one race deserves to lose their money.

[DanG]

IMO: She can lose if any two of the following happen...

• She has a very off day. (She is flesh and blood after all and has fired MANY world class shots in a row.)
• One of the big three contenders fires their absolute best shot / gets the candy trip and several in here are fresher then her.
• She is knocked sideways at some points and / or the infamous (imo) NYRA gate crew decides to have an adventure.

The X factor in all this that can’t really be seen on paper is there is a dynamic between 3yo fillies and older males that can’t really be translated into numbers. There is a reason this is so unusual and it’s like a star female college athlete taking on grizzled / tobacco spitting professionals. These older males have the racing savvy, muscle and testosterone to make a 3yo fillies life very difficult.

Having said that…she must have extenuating circumstances to lose (saddle slip etc) because I believe she is on the VERY short list of racing history.

Kick some a$$ girl...

[bisket]

There is no evidence that the horse has any trouble getting a mile and a quarter, other than some flawed logic based on the finish of the Preakness.

Rachel Alexandra is much better horse now than she was in the Preakness and yet all the naysayers refuse to see how much the horse has improved since that race.

Anyone who wants to bet money that the horse will get beat at a mile and a quarter based on one race deserves to lose their money.
this is what i heard from everyone leading up to the jcgc that year :lol:

[bisket]

dan please don't get me wrong. she's a great filly, and one for the ages. she has limitations though. if things like you describe happen to her at 1 1/8 mile she still wins, but at 1 1/4 mile i don't think thats the case. pretty much thats the point. at 1 1/8 mile i don't have to handicap the race; at 1 1/4 mile i do!

[ghostyapper]

You are comparing what a six year-old mare did to what a three year-old filly did? Why don't you tell me what kind of pace numbers Azeri was running as a three year-old? :lol:

Oh that's right, Azeri didn't start racing until November of her three year-old season and didn't try two turns until she turned four.

Well gee by that logic we should then assume that there are 8-9 3yo males running now that are better than forego or cigar :confused:

And her azeri was already past her prime at 6 (as most horses are).

[ghostyapper]

Just what part of her breeding suggests that she can't run an extra 1/16th of a mile? The yapper has already admitted that she can beat fillies at 10F but she can't be great until she beats colts at 10F. Completely ludicrous.

I have never stated that she needs to beat colts at 10F to be considered great. All I've said is she would have a tough time doing it. The banter has come from the rachel fans who consider her invincible

[DanG]

dan please don't get me wrong. she's a great filly, and one for the ages. she has limitations though. if things like you describe happen to her at 1 1/8 mile she still wins, but at 1 1/4 mile i don't think thats the case. pretty much thats the point. at 1 1/8 mile i don't have to handicap the race; at 1 1/4 mile i do!
We agree to disagree…its what our sport is founded upon. Enjoy your Labor Day weekend BK.

[classhandicapper]

Medaglia D'Oro won the Travers.

Just a note. That was a heavily biased racetrack.

[classhandicapper]

You know what I think?

If she either wins in a really tough race (like the Preakness) or gets beat in a close decision by a colt that fires a solid race, we are going to have to have another debate about whether she went off form or simply couldn't duplicate her best speed figures against tougher foes (and I still think there's a chance a few of her Beyer figures are a few points too high).

So if she wins, I hope she crushes them and puts all debates to rest. I just don't see it that way. There's enough quality in this race to push her and take some starch out of her. Somebody is going to be coming at her late.

[cj's dad]

Is this race on nat'l TV - ESPN ??

[bisket]

Is this race on nat'l TV - ESPN ??
no tvg and hrtv

[GaryG]

If she does get beat IMO it will be the Marty Wolfson horse IT'S A BIRD. I will play hum underneath Rachel with a small bet on him to win. Odds should be generous.

[bisket]

gary what do you like about bird. i just can't seem to get a line on this one. i know marty has had some success with horses running on calder's surface and then shipping to new york. calder is deeper and slower the horses feel like superman on the new york dirt. what do you like about him?

[GaryG]

Wolfson shipped in and won the Personal Ensign by daylight. This one could come up with a top effort off the freshening. Maybe Wolfson brought his long needle too.....:eek:

[joanied]

So MDO won the Travers at 10F and finished second in the BC Classic twice, the Dubai World Cup and the Belmont but couldn't run a lick past 9F?

Rachels DP - 3-2-7-2-0. How many times these days do you see ANY points in the stamina category? MDO was sired by El Prado who I do believe will eventually get on the chef de race list as either a C or CS. His sire is Saddler's Wells who is already listed as CS. She's got Northern Dancer on both sides of the family. On her dam side she has Fortyniner who won the Travers and finished 2nd in the KY Derby.

Just what part of her breeding suggests that she can't run an extra 1/16th of a mile? The yapper has already admitted that she can beat fillies at 10F but she can't be great until she beats colts at 10F. Completely ludicrous.

Right on:ThmbUp:

[bisket]

i always wonder how his ponies will race after the detention barn ;)

[joanied]

Graveyard of Champions........

aaarrrgggg....don't say that:eek:

[bisket]

So MDO won the Travers at 10F and finished second in the BC Classic twice, the Dubai World Cup and the Belmont but couldn't run a lick past 9F?

Rachels DP - 3-2-7-2-0. How many times these days do you see ANY points in the stamina category? MDO was sired by El Prado who I do believe will eventually get on the chef de race list as either a C or CS. His sire is Saddler's Wells who is already listed as CS. She's got Northern Dancer on both sides of the family. On her dam side she has Fortyniner who won the Travers and finished 2nd in the KY Derby.

Just what part of her breeding suggests that she can't run an extra 1/16th of a mile? The yapper has already admitted that she can beat fillies at 10F but she can't be great until she beats colts at 10F. Completely ludicrous.
this crowd achieves its stamina on the TURF not the dirt. apples and oranges!! you guys oughtta make a living selling livestock. you've already got their bs line ;)

[joanied]

Is this race on nat'l TV - ESPN ??

You already got an answer, cj'sdad...and it sucks...I can't beleive (well, maybe I can:faint: ) that ESPN or one of the networks is missing this...and shame on NYRA for not doing something to get this race on national TV.
I feel really bad that you may miss this one...that stinks:(

[ryesteve]

So if she wins, I hope she crushes them and puts all debates to rest. I wish it would put the debates to rest... but the critics have been laying the "she beat nothing" groundwork ever since they announced they were going in this race.

[ezrabrooks]

If she does get beat IMO it will be the Marty Wolfson horse IT'S A BIRD. I will play hum underneath Rachel with a small bet on him to win. Odds should be generous.

GG.. I think you are on the right track.. I give IAB a big chance in this one. He had done wrong of late...so I will take a shot with him.

Ez

[bisket]

i think rachel wins with macho again and asiatic boy boxed in the 2 and three spots for the tri

[joanied]

bisket...good picks...I have Macho Again for place too...Bullsbay 3rd, Asiatic Boy 4th...
but...all I care about is Rachel to win, win, win:jump: :jump: :jump:

[bisket]

rachel looks very calm and i think thats a good thing. i think she'll beat this crowd

[098poi]

I'd love to see Rachael win. Not as much as some though, about 12 min to post and over 400 grand to win on her!:eek:

[bisket]

spoke a little too soon

[MNslappy]

wouldnt it be something if Da'Tara beat Big Brown and Rachel Alexandra?

:lol:

[rrpic6]

Calvin jumps off in post parade! He's 1 for 40 at Saratoga. Look out bridgejumpers.

RR

[bisket]

its always a horse like that who does it

[DeanT]

Holy cripes.

[bisket]

macho was there!! 46 and change and he's always there!!

[MNslappy]

WOOOO! :ThmbUp::ThmbUp::ThmbUp:

[Tom]

History!

And a 22 and change first quarter.........wow!

[Sundown]

HOOOO!

[098poi]

I gotta give this game up! No money bet in this race and my heart was pounding like crazy!!!!!!!!

[Show Me the Wire]

Great race. Jocks did everything to beat her and she still won.

[andymays]

:cool:

[ArlJim78]

Borel wore out his whip.

[DeanT]

That'll quiet the 'she has competition for HOY' talk for about a day or two :)

[sally]

nice pics Joanied!!

[Sundown]

Great race. Jocks did everything to beat her and she still won.:ThmbUp:

Once she cleared it was over, not a whole lot they could do after that.

[bisket]

yup jonied had it picked straight

[bcgreg]

Horse of the Year!

How about...Horse of the Decade!

Incredible athletic feat just witnessed...

bcgreg

[jonnielu]

Borel wore out his whip.

I'll wager that it never gets mentioned again.

jdl

[Show Me the Wire]

I'll wager that it never gets mentioned again.

jdl

Does it matter? Borel was more than likely to empty her out today( get to her bottom).

She took the heat early, middle and late and still won. Impressive performance by a magnificent animal.

[keilan]

Maybe her best race to date, congrats to her

[joanied]

rachel looks very calm and i think thats a good thing. i think she'll beat this crowd

aaarrrgggg...until Calvin came off...what impressed me was how she stood & waitied for him to get back on...they DO make a great team...loading...

[KirisClown]

MsBJVuGAr78

[the little guy]

Maybe her best race to date, congrats to her


Maybe?

The other horses involved in the pace with her, Da'Tara, Past the Point, and Cool Coal Man, were, respectively, eased, a furlong behind and a sixteenth behind.

It was a performance that rivals Seattle Slew in the Jockey Club and Holy Bull in the Travers.

It doesn't diminish Zenyatta that she is racing in the same year as the Year of Rachel.....but it sure as hell puts her in perspective.

[tucker6]

A good question and an easy answer; therefore the following 3yo fillies are just a few fillies that I consider "great" and your question has limited my list to “3yo fillies only.”

However not in any particular order of preference, I would consider the following 3yo fillies great: Glorious Song (she might not have run as a 3yo, I don’t remember), Althea (she beat the boys in a G1 race), Open Mind, Ruffian, Go for Wand, Shuvee, Ta Wee, and Azeri.

There are probably many more great fillies that I cannot recall and yes Rachel Alexandra might make that list if she continues with her winning exploits.
If RA is not on your list at this point, then you are biased against her. IMHO, she is better than most of the horses you name above, IF NOT ALL OF THEM. She's beaten 3 yr old fillies, 3 yr old colts, older males. She has won from off the pace, in front wire-to-wire, and has fought off all challenges. What else should she do to earn your respect as a GREAT filly?? I'm really trying to understand your point of view from a logical standpoint, but I keep failing.

[RXB]

Maybe?
It was a performance that rivals Seattle Slew in the Jockey Club and Holy Bull in the Travers.


Come on. Defeating Da'Tara on the front and then fighting with Macho Again is a little different from battling 45 1/5 in a 12f race, head-to-head with Affirmed and his entry mate and then being confronted by the likes of Exceller.

She's a remarkable 3YO filly but let's have a little perspective.

[spongemadman]

Horse of the Year!

How about...Horse of the Decade!

Which in turn would make her horse of the century and horse of the millenium.

[classhandicapper]

Come on. Defeating Da'Tara on the front and then fighting with Macho Again is a little different from battling 45 1/5 in a 12f race, head-to-head with Affirmed and his entry mate and then being confronted by the likes of Exceller.

She's a remarkable 3YO filly but let's have a little perspective.

I'm going to have to agree with that one. It was a tremendous performance for any horse, let alone a 3YO filly, but Seattle Slew was in a different dimension that day.

[classhandicapper]

I wish it would put the debates to rest... but the critics have been laying the "she beat nothing" groundwork ever since they announced they were going in this race.

In my mind all the debates are over except whether she would have beaten Ruffian at various distances.

[Norm]

If she wins this, and I beleive she will...that check mark next to class will go along with the word 'great' to describe her...no one could deny her as a great horse after this one...if she wins....oh, wait...when she wins:jump: :jump: :jump:
There's the check mark for Class ! She just earned it. She did several things today that "can't be done". Foremost, in my opinion, she beat Saratoga. Saratoga is not called the "Graveyard of Champions" for no reason. She beat the track bias, early speed was collapsing all day. She out-sprinted the front runners, won the eyeball-to-eyeball contests, and out-kicked the closers. Then, when it mattered the most, with an older colt trying to gobble her up in the last 50 yards, she dug in and fought him off; a real gutsy finish. She showed us that she doesn't quit when seriously challenged.

I hope they have the good sense to rest her now 'til next season. That was a hard race. She has done enough to win Horse-of-the-Year honors already. She can answer the 1 1/4 mile question next season when she is a 4-year old.

[Stevie Belmont]

Rachel Alexandra For President!

Rachel Alexandra is officially a legend after putting in one of the most dramatic, epic, heart pounding and amazing performances ever today in winning the 56th running of the Woodward over a determined, driving Macho Again at Saratoga.

She raced through fast fractions on the lead the whole way from gate to wire, dug in turning for home and kept it going full throttle all the way to the wire, holding off a tremendous late rally by Macho Again. She was as spectacular as ever in winning the Woodward. It was truly a race of a lifetime. Her performance today was one of the most exhilarating moments in sports history!

[rgustafson]

Come on. Defeating Da'Tara on the front and then fighting with Macho Again is a little different from battling 45 1/5 in a 12f race, head-to-head with Affirmed and his entry mate and then being confronted by the likes of Exceller.

She's a remarkable 3YO filly but let's have a little perspective.

Yes. I think TLG may have gone overboard here. As far as I'm concerned, Seattle Slews effort in that race is one of the greatest in the history of thoroughbred racing. Those fractions against that quality of competition for a race at 12 furlongs were mind boggling and after he was headed, he was coming back again at the wire. They don't make them like that any more.

[Cratos]

If RA is not on your list at this point, then you are biased against her. IMHO, she is better than most of the horses you name above, IF NOT ALL OF THEM. She's beaten 3 yr old fillies, 3 yr old colts, older males. She has won from off the pace, in front wire-to-wire, and has fought off all challenges. What else should she do to earn your respect as a GREAT filly?? I'm really trying to understand your point of view from a logical standpoint, but I keep failing.

I am not going to get into an asinine argument about whether Rachel Alexandra is better than Ruffian or Go for Wand or any of the other 3yo fillies that I had listed.

Rachel is very good and if you want to waddle in the semantics of very good versus great be my guest.

However if Rachel lose her next two races would that change my mind about her quality, class, and talent? Hell no, it would not because I believe like any other great horse she should be measured by her body of work; not on a single race or two.

Rachel performance in the Woodward was exceptional and history will note that and some are comparing it to Seattle Slew’s performance in the 1978 JCGC and that is a fair comparison, but Dr. Fager in the 1967 Woodward as a 3yo is equitably comparable even though he lost to Damascus while battling Damascus’s stable mate, Hevedar tooth and nail until he faltered.

But noting will probably satisfy you and to my pleasure that is your puzzle to solve.

[slewis]

Im going to put my 2 in here and say I'm convinced she didn't run her race today.

Remember she was getting significant weight from a group of older males who I've been preaching inferiority vs this years 3 yr old crop.

Great horses will find a way to get the job done even when they're faced with a track bias against, trip, or not racing up to their best.

I've stated that she is not this big, powerful filly most who've never seen her up close might perceive and that Asmussen's biggest challenge will be to keep her flesh through these hard races.

After what I saw today, we might not see her the rest of the year.

Regardless, she's the best filly I've ever seen.

Congrats to Jackson and Asmussen for their sportmanship.

[slewis]

I am not going to get into an asinine argument about whether Rachel Alexandra is better than Ruffian or Go for Wand or any of the other 3yo fillies that I had listed.

Rachel is very good and if you want to waddle in the semantics of very good versus great be my guest.

However if Rachel lose her next two races would that change my mind about her quality, class, and talent? Hell no, it would not because I believe like any other great horse she should be measured by her body of work; not on a single race or two.

Rachel performance in the Woodward was exceptional and history will note that and some are comparing it to Seattle Slew’s performance in the 1978 JCGC and that is a fair comparison, but Dr. Fager in the 1967 Woodward as a 3yo is equitably comparable even though he lost to Damascus while battling Damascus’s stable mate, Hevedar tooth and nail until he faltered.

But noting will probably satisfy you and to my pleasure that is your puzzle to solve.


I know the thread is about Rachel, but if Dr. Fager were around today, the way it's taboo for racing secretary's to weigh handicap horses down, he'd win every stake by 10 plus lengths carrying 125 and 126lbs

Go archive his pp's and look at the weight he used to carry....

Slew's my all time favorite, but Dr. Fager was unbelievable.

[Stevie Belmont]

"A Dramatic Stretch Drive Awaits in The Woodward Stakes!" Tom Durkin With A Fantastic Race Call! http://bit.ly/2JNwJt

[bisket]

i said earlier in a 1 1/8 mile race i don't have to handicap because no matter what goes down she's gonna win. well she proved me right on that one today. jackson said she'll be even better next out that she was a little off today. thats saying something!! she's gonna race again this year if she eats her feed and is a good girl for the next month :jump:

[bisket]

fager was probably the best horse as far as raw uncontrolable speed is concerned. if lawyer ron had the right connections he may have been able to rival fager, but it wasn't meant to be. sometimes the best thing you can do for a horse is let them be the horse they want to be. they tried to get lawyer to rate and fought him entirely to much imop.

[ghostyapper]

Maybe?

It was a performance that rivals Seattle Slew in the Jockey Club and Holy Bull in the Travers.


Get a grip. I'd expect this from some rachel groupie but you? How could you go on tv with a straight face after a comment like this.

She ran two opening 23 quarters in a 9 furlong race. Slew ran a sub 46 half in a 12 furlongs race. Slew was caught by exceller, a champion. Rachel held off macho again a nice stakes horse. For you to put the 2 races in the same class is ridiculous and emphasizes your total lack of objectivity and knowledge of racing history.

[Zman179]

Bottom line is that Rachel Alexandra is one of the greatest fillies in the history of the game. I cannot say that she is THE best, because IMO comparing eras is nothing more than mere speculation.

The only chance that Zenyatta has to win HOY is to run in and win the BC Classic against older males. Otherwise, it's all RA.

[broadreach]

Huge performance :ThmbUp:

[the little guy]

Get a grip. I'd expect this from some rachel groupie but you? How could you go on tv with a straight face after a comment like this.

She ran two opening 23 quarters in a 9 furlong race. Slew ran a sub 46 half in a 12 furlongs race. Slew was caught by exceller, a champion. Rachel held off macho again a nice stakes horse. For you to put the 2 races in the same class is ridiculous and emphasizes your total lack of objectivity and knowledge of racing history.


You have already nailed down most absurd poster on the internet ( congrats.....it's no mean feat ). There's really no reason for you to keep campaigning.

[statik27]

So let me get this straight? Last week everyone was saying that this was a weak group of older horses and RA was sure to win in a walk. Now she wins by a head over Macho Again and its the race of the century?

Ok come on guys, this is a great filly, a once in a decade or twenty years type filly and a win over older horses, of any caliber, puts her into a class few of her gender will ever see, but the 78 JCGC? Thats just silly.

Seriously until today, what made RA so different then Winning Colors or Serenas Song? Both beat the boys twice in their 3yo season, both are considered amongst the best 3yo fillies we've seen in the last 50 or so years. RA has topped them both by beating older horses, but that big grey ranging up on her flank wasn't Skip Away.

And ask yourself this, if this years Pacific Classic where run on dirt and RA faced THAT field, how confident would you be she'd win it?

statik27

P.S. To all who think she is the greatest 3yo ever, you might want to add FILLY to that statement. Citation, I might point out, beat older horses BEFORE he won the triple crown.

[lamboguy]

good point about CIATION, i always thought he was the greatest along with MANOFWAR and FOREGO.

an older horse is an older horse, but i would love to know the caliber of older horse that CITATION ran against. i am sure they were good ones, that is probably what made CITATION so great. if ever there was a 3yo that was better than RACHEL you found him.

back whenCITATION ran there were no drugs and the horses ran twice a week, its a different world today.

[ghostyapper]

So let me get this straight? Last week everyone was saying that this was a weak group of older horses and RA was sure to win in a walk. Now she wins by a head over Macho Again and its the race of the century?

Ok come on guys, this is a great filly, a once in a decade or twenty years type filly and a win over older horses, of any caliber, puts her into a class few of her gender will ever see, but the 78 JCGC? Thats just silly.

Seriously until today, what made RA so different then Winning Colors or Serenas Song? Both beat the boys twice in their 3yo season, both are considered amongst the best 3yo fillies we've seen in the last 50 or so years. RA has topped them both by beating older horses, but that big grey ranging up on her flank wasn't Skip Away.

And ask yourself this, if this years Pacific Classic where run on dirt and RA faced THAT field, how confident would you be she'd win it?

statik27

P.S. To all who think she is the greatest 3yo ever, you might want to add FILLY to that statement. Citation, I might point out, beat older horses BEFORE he won the triple crown.

I was wondering why last week that everyone was pumping up this average field of males saying how tough it was. Now I see why so they could gush over rachel when she wins by a head. If rachel had not run, people who have been bashing this race as a borderline G2 event, now its the best performance ever and most competitive race ever (exact quotes)

The lunacy continues

[depalma113]

I was wondering why last week that everyone was pumping up this average field of males saying how tough it was. Now I see why so they could gush over rachel when she wins by a head. If rachel had not run, people who have been bashing this race as a borderline G2 event, now its the best performance ever and most competitive race ever (exact quotes)

The lunacy continues

The lunacy is your constant bashing of this filly. You simply can't accept greatness when it is staring you in the face. She is so much better than you ever thought she was and it irritates the hell out of you that she just goes out and wins races every time she steps on the track.

Since she continues to perform at an exceptional level, and since you can't get the loss for her that you so dearly desire, you have no choice but to nitpick her victories.

[castaway01]

Maybe?

The other horses involved in the pace with her, Da'Tara, Past the Point, and Cool Coal Man, were, respectively, eased, a furlong behind and a sixteenth behind.

It was a performance that rivals Seattle Slew in the Jockey Club and Holy Bull in the Travers.

It doesn't diminish Zenyatta that she is racing in the same year as the Year of Rachel.....but it sure as hell puts her in perspective.

I agree that Holy Bull in the Travers was the most similar race and effort that came to mind. I don't think I've been that excited just rooting for a horse to hold on since then either, so I guess I'm not an old cynic yet.

As far as Rachel---unbelievable for a 3-year-old filly to do that. Just unbelievable.

[castaway01]

Yes. I think TLG may have gone overboard here. As far as I'm concerned, Seattle Slews effort in that race is one of the greatest in the history of thoroughbred racing. Those fractions against that quality of competition for a race at 12 furlongs were mind boggling and after he was headed, he was coming back again at the wire. They don't make them like that any more.

Even if it was a bit overboard, saying she's not quite as great as Seattle Slew is hardly an insult. If that's all we've got left to criticize her then we're talking about one for the ages.

[ArlJim78]

I'm not a race historian, so I'll leave the analysis of where she stands compared to other past greats to others. Frankly, to me, I don't much care, it's all subjective.

But what I can say is I've never seen anything like this. I never thought I would see a filly do his kind of thing. Yesterdays win is what completely sealed the deal for me. All those that tried to run with her paid a heavy price at the top of the lane as they folded up shop. While the one horse who had a big edge on her in terms of race set-up, Macho Again who dropped back 15-20 lengths, was repelled late when she hung tough in the later stages.

my only regret is I wish she had a different rider.

[joanied]

nice pics Joanied!!

Thanks, Sally...wish I had a ticket to save...

[joanied]

There's the check mark for Class ! She just earned it. She did several things today that "can't be done". Foremost, in my opinion, she beat Saratoga. Saratoga is not called the "Graveyard of Champions" for no reason. She beat the track bias, early speed was collapsing all day. She out-sprinted the front runners, won the eyeball-to-eyeball contests, and out-kicked the closers. Then, when it mattered the most, with an older colt trying to gobble her up in the last 50 yards, she dug in and fought him off; a real gutsy finish. She showed us that she doesn't quit when seriously challenged.

I hope they have the good sense to rest her now 'til next season. That was a hard race. She has done enough to win Horse-of-the-Year honors already. She can answer the 1 1/4 mile question next season when she is a 4-year old.

Well said, Norm...and I tend to agree about a rest...no reason for them to run her again this season...she did look a bit tired, which is understandable...but, unless in two weeks time she's tearing the barn down...she has earned a vacation.
I am still watching the replay...over & over and still get the same reaction...I'm in awe of her!

[the little guy]

I didn't say she was as good as Seattle Slew ( or Holy Bull for that matter ) but I don't think it's unreasonable to draw at least a comparison to yesterday's race and the two I mentioned. They were all similar type situations in major showdowns.....that was really my point.

[Java Gold@TFT]

Thanks, Sally...wish I had a ticket to save...
You might ;) It's currently worth a grand total of $2.60. That may go up in a few years with the program included. :)

[DRIVEWAY]

Rachel Alexandra, who was expected to win easily by 5 lengths, goes off at .30 odds. On top of laying over a very weak field, she receives an 8 Lb weight allowance going her best distance of 9FL.

The race was run without incidence and Rachel put away the expected early pressure. She opened up, as usual, in early stretch but found herself to be all out in deep stretch and used every ounce of the eight pounds to prevail by a head.

The scrample at the top of the stretch made for great drama. Rachel groupies were all on the edge of their seats. The sense of relief when she held on quickly turns into chants of HOY HOY HOY.

The talking heads at TVG have already elected her. The fact that TVG is putting up money for a Rachel/Zenyatta matchup at Belmont has taken over any chance of objectivity. TVG needs more customer/fans to grow their business. Riding the coat tails of this filly will hopefully expand their customer base amongst women.

Rachel Alexandra barely beats a weak group of older horses at .30 odds. Jackson comes out and says she was not at her best. They will/may run again in a month. Where's the next cream puff field to beat up at .30 odds? Don't worry fans, Jackson will find it.

[the little guy]

Rachel Alexandra, who was expected to win easily by 5 lengths, goes off at .30 odds. On top of laying over a very weak field, she receives an 8 Lb weight allowance going her best distance of 9FL.

The race was run without incidence and Rachel put away the expected early pressure. She opened up, as usual, in early stretch but found herself to be all out in deep stretch and used every ounce of the eight pounds to prevail by a head.

The scrample at the top of the stretch made for great drama. Rachel groupies were all on the edge of their seats. The sense of relief when she held on quickly turns into chants of HOY HOY HOY.

The talking heads at TVG have already elected her. The fact that TVG is putting up money for a Rachel/Zenyatta matchup at Belmont has taken over any chance of objectivity. TVG needs more customer/fans to grow their business. Riding the coat tails of this filly will hopefully expand their customer base amongst women.

Rachel Alexandra barely beats a weak group of older horses at .30 odds. Jackson comes out and says she was not at her best. They will/may run again in a month. Where's the next cream puff field to beat up at .30 odds? Don't worry fans, Jackson will find it.


And suddenly a new contender has emerged.

[bcgreg]

Rachel Alexandra, who was expected to win easily by 5 lengths, goes off at .30 odds. On top of laying over a very weak field, she receives an 8 Lb weight allowance going her best distance of 9FL.

The race was run without incidence and Rachel put away the expected early pressure. She opened up, as usual, in early stretch but found herself to be all out in deep stretch and used every ounce of the eight pounds to prevail by a head.

The scrample at the top of the stretch made for great drama. Rachel groupies were all on the edge of their seats. The sense of relief when she held on quickly turns into chants of HOY HOY HOY.

The talking heads at TVG have already elected her. The fact that TVG is putting up money for a Rachel/Zenyatta matchup at Belmont has taken over any chance of objectivity. TVG needs more customer/fans to grow their business. Riding the coat tails of this filly will hopefully expand their customer base amongst women.

Rachel Alexandra barely beats a weak group of older horses at .30 odds. Jackson comes out and says she was not at her best. They will/may run again in a month. Where's the next cream puff field to beat up at .30 odds? Don't worry fans, Jackson will find it.


:sleeping:

:lol:

[Sundown]

And suddenly a new contender has emerged.

:lol: I actually was laughing to that reply, great :ThmbUp:

[Java Gold@TFT]

:lol: I actually was laughing to that reply, great :ThmbUp:
I'm glad now that I mentioned the dumbest comment of the month poll. It's sort of turning into ESPN's Sports Center Top Plays of the day. How do you differentiate between dumb and dumber? Is a little league player diving for a foul ball better than an incredible soccer goal? Too tough to choose among some of these comments.

[JPinMaryland]

Does anybody think that carrying 8 more lbs she still wins this?

[Pace Cap'n]

Does anybody think that carrying 8 more lbs she still wins this?

Yes.

[Steve R]

Rachel Alexandra, who was expected to win easily by 5 lengths, goes off at .30 odds. On top of laying over a very weak field, she receives an 8 Lb weight allowance going her best distance of 9FL.

The race was run without incidence and Rachel put away the expected early pressure. She opened up, as usual, in early stretch but found herself to be all out in deep stretch and used every ounce of the eight pounds to prevail by a head.

The scrample at the top of the stretch made for great drama. Rachel groupies were all on the edge of their seats. The sense of relief when she held on quickly turns into chants of HOY HOY HOY.

The talking heads at TVG have already elected her. The fact that TVG is putting up money for a Rachel/Zenyatta matchup at Belmont has taken over any chance of objectivity. TVG needs more customer/fans to grow their business. Riding the coat tails of this filly will hopefully expand their customer base amongst women.

Rachel Alexandra barely beats a weak group of older horses at .30 odds. Jackson comes out and says she was not at her best. They will/may run again in a month. Where's the next cream puff field to beat up at .30 odds? Don't worry fans, Jackson will find it.

What are you? Ten-years-old? It seems quite evident you have no historical perspective nor a clue about the dynamics of Thoroughbred racing. I've been involved in racing since Native Dancer was a pup (as was I), and I have never seen an American filly accomplish so much at such a young age. This was like a 20-year-old girl competing against seasoned, veteran 30-year-old men at the highest level of professional sports. She was pressed early, middle and late and prevailed. The horses that tried to stay close early finished in the next race.

I can only assume you consider this a weak field because Andy Beyer never assigned them stellar figures. What I saw were three G1 SWs including a classic winner, a horse that ran second by just over a length to a two-time Horse of the Year at equal weights, a horse that ran second in the DWC and had earned multiple Racing Post Ratings of 121 and a horse coming off a 13-length stakes win at the same distance on the same track. I'd go so far as to say it was as good or better a field as any that Curlin faced last year outside the BCC, and that was only because the BCC had two exceptional Europeans.

It's unfortunate you lack the analytical skills to comprehend what you are seeing.

[Grits]

Rachel Alexandra, who was expected to win easily by 5 lengths, goes off at .30 odds. On top of laying over a very weak field, she receives an 8 Lb weight allowance going her best distance of 9FL.

The race was run without incidence and Rachel put away the expected early pressure. She opened up, as usual, in early stretch but found herself to be all out in deep stretch and used every ounce of the eight pounds to prevail by a head.

The scrample at the top of the stretch made for great drama. Rachel groupies were all on the edge of their seats. The sense of relief when she held on quickly turns into chants of HOY HOY HOY.

The talking heads at TVG have already elected her. The fact that TVG is putting up money for a Rachel/Zenyatta matchup at Belmont has taken over any chance of objectivity. TVG needs more customer/fans to grow their business. Riding the coat tails of this filly will hopefully expand their customer base amongst women.

Rachel Alexandra barely beats a weak group of older horses at .30 odds. Jackson comes out and says she was not at her best. They will/may run again in a month. Where's the next cream puff field to beat up at .30 odds? Don't worry fans, Jackson will find it.

And Driveway, you've preferred the performance of, and found whom, to have brought more interest and more recognition to the sport of thoroughbred racing, recently?

Some here have said, regarding growing the fan base--where women go, men will follow"--a glaring example of how well that's worked would be Frank's Tahitian huts on his "sandy beach" at Gulfstream Park. A less obvious one, "ladies day" designated for Friday, developed by Breeders' Cup. So, I don't find this to be true. There are fewer women who support this sport with their handicapping and their money. And the money, of course, keeps the sport afloat.

Everyone, though, has interest in CHAMPIONS. Again, EVERYONE.

It doesn't matter what the sport may be, all can be included (except for maybe that thing they play on ice called curling, which I'm told is sorta confined to the Canadians.) When people see a horse, one which in this case happens to be a three year old filly, achieve this level of eye popping, all out, heart and gut performance, time and again, gaining more and more national attention--they will notice, they will inquire. The unfamiliar will say, "hey, check this out. Can you believe this? This horse . . . she's won everything she's run against. She's a female. And this time, she beat males horses who are OLDER than she is."

And for you to reduce her feats, or to discount the public's interest is a mistake.

And the 8lbs? Forget it, its the rule of racing!! You don't rewrite the rules because of one horse's age and gender. Its a foolish question.

[rastajenk]

You don't need to knock Curlin' to promote Rachel. :)

[tucker6]

What are you? Ten-years-old? It seems quite evident you have no historical perspective nor a clue about the dynamics of Thoroughbred racing. I've been involved in racing since Native Dancer was a pup (as was I), and I have never seen an American filly accomplish so much at such a young age. This was like a 20-year-old girl competing against seasoned, veteran 30-year-old men at the highest level of professional sports. She was pressed early, middle and late and prevailed. The horses that tried to stay close early finished in the next race.

I can only assume you consider this a weak field because Andy Beyer never assigned them stellar figures. What I saw were three G1 SWs including a classic winner, a horse that ran second by just over a length to a two-time Horse of the Year at equal weights, a horse that ran second in the DWC and had earned multiple Racing Post Ratings of 121 and a horse coming off a 13-length stakes win at the same distance on the same track. I'd go so far as to say it was as good or better a field as any that Curlin faced last year outside the BCC, and that was only because the BCC had two exceptional Europeans.

It's unfortunate you lack the analytical skills to comprehend what you are seeing.
Your attempt at logic has no place in this thread. What were you thinking?? :cool:

[castaway01]

Rachel Alexandra, who was expected to win easily by 5 lengths, goes off at .30 odds. On top of laying over a very weak field, she receives an 8 Lb weight allowance going her best distance of 9FL.

The race was run without incidence and Rachel put away the expected early pressure. She opened up, as usual, in early stretch but found herself to be all out in deep stretch and used every ounce of the eight pounds to prevail by a head.

The scrample at the top of the stretch made for great drama. Rachel groupies were all on the edge of their seats. The sense of relief when she held on quickly turns into chants of HOY HOY HOY.

The talking heads at TVG have already elected her. The fact that TVG is putting up money for a Rachel/Zenyatta matchup at Belmont has taken over any chance of objectivity. TVG needs more customer/fans to grow their business. Riding the coat tails of this filly will hopefully expand their customer base amongst women.

Rachel Alexandra barely beats a weak group of older horses at .30 odds. Jackson comes out and says she was not at her best. They will/may run again in a month. Where's the next cream puff field to beat up at .30 odds? Don't worry fans, Jackson will find it.

So you've seen a lot of 3-year-old fillies do what she did yesterday in Grade 1 races against older males? Go ahead and post the list. I'll wait here.

[thespaah]

So you've seen a lot of 3-year-old fillies do what she did yesterday in Grade 1 races against older males? Go ahead and post the list. I'll wait here.Just two come to mind. MIesque in the 1984 BC mile And Pebbles in the BC Turf ..Other than that I draw a blank.

[Java Gold@TFT]

Just two come to mind. MIesque in the 1984 BC mile And Pebbles in the BC Turf ..Other than that I draw a blank.
Well, you could add Goldikova in last years' BC Mile but the list is still very, very short and those 3 were all on turf and came from Europe where it is much more common to run the girls against the boys. Not to diminish theri individual accomlishments.

[Steve R]

So you've seen a lot of 3-year-old fillies do what she did yesterday in Grade 1 races against older males? Go ahead and post the list. I'll wait here.

In case it hasn't already been mentioned, The Blood-Horse noted that Rachel Alexandra is the first 3-year-old filly to win a G1-level distance race against older males in New York since 1887.

[JPinMaryland]

Twilight Tear's 3 year old season (1944) is fairly comparable. She beat colts on 4 occasions, including older ones at least once in the Pimlico Special. She beat Pensive twice, and he had won the Derby and Preakness that year. Against males she won the Arlington Classic; the SKokie classic and the Pim Special and allowance race (Pensive was in that). She beat Devil Diver in the Pimlico Special who was a very good horse. Won 14 out of 17 including 11 in a row that year. Won the filly races: Acorn, CCA Oaks, Pimlico Oaks and the Princess Doreen, all rather easily.

So I dont know if it's exactly the same as what we've seen this year, but its comparable.

[rastajenk]

I don't think she can truly be considered great until she does something that hasn't been done since 1886.

[Steve R]

Twilight Tear's 3 year old season (1944) is fairly comparable. She beat colts on 4 occasions, including older ones at least once in the Pimlico Special. She beat Pensive twice, and he had won the Derby and Preakness that year. Against males she won the Arlington Classic; the SKokie classic and the Pim Special and allowance race (Pensive was in that). She beat Devil Diver in the Pimlico Special who was a very good horse. Won 14 out of 17 including 11 in a row that year. Won the filly races: Acorn, CCA Oaks, Pimlico Oaks and the Princess Doreen, all rather easily.

So I dont know if it's exactly the same as what we've seen this year, but its comparable.

It certainly is comparable, especially since Twilight Tear is one of only five females listed among the 35 greatest horses of the 20th century in the DRF's American Racing Manual. The others are Lady's Secret, Personal Ensign, Ruffian and Shuvee. BTW, Twilight Tear won only once in three tries at 10f. When she won the Classic, she went WTW in :48.0, 1:12.0, 1:37.2, 2:03.3. I wonder if Rachel Alexandra could win at 10f off those early fractions. Without a doubt!

[Cratos]

fager was probably the best horse as far as raw uncontrolable speed is concerned. if lawyer ron had the right connections he may have been able to rival fager, but it wasn't meant to be. sometimes the best thing you can do for a horse is let them be the horse they want to be. they tried to get lawyer to rate and fought him entirely to much imop.

Dr. Fager is my all time favorite racehorse and I have said that on this forum and other internet racing forums before. I was there to see him against Buckpasser and Damascus; and I there to see him perform on a cold windy day one of the best if not the best performances in my opinion to ever be run at a NYRA racetrack when he toted a 139 pounds to victory in the 1968 renewal of the 7f Vosburgh to then a world record.

Also it should be noted that he only lost once at a distance of less that 1 ¼ miles and he ran against horses who is now in racing’s Hall of Fame.

However this thread is about Rachel Alexandra and she and the good Doctor do have something in common (and for the cynics this is not a comparison between the two) and that is quickness. Rachel like Dr. Fager did in his day can accelerate from the gate with a sustaining speed for the distance that is very hard to match.

Also for the Zenyetta fans and I do admire this filly very much, but she will have her work cut for her if Rachel brings her “A” game if they should meet.

A race between those two might be reminiscent of Aldebaran and Saarland in the 2003 Met Mile or Forego and Honest Pleasure in the 1976 Marlboro Cup.

[46zilzal]

Here is GREATNESS in a filly. DO this and one steps back and is in awe.


http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pretty_Polly_(horse)

[bisket]

this question will be bantered about for some time, but this is the way i look at it. if say da'tara, cool coal man, or past the points were in the same zip code at the finish it would have made a difference. the one horse that was there at the finish the weight that was spotted didn't make a difference. why? because he wasn't with the pace, and is a one run type. the 8lbs didn't slow his run. end of story!!

[Stevie Belmont]

I'll say this, Rachel is not normal, nothing she does is normal. She won yesterday, because she refused to lose. It looked like she would have been past, but she dug in like a champ.

I have tried to see other views of the gallop out and have not been able to, but Macho Again from I have seen never past her in he gallop out either.

[lamboguy]

there are so many great horses that ran years ago that we all seem to forget them. one gets carried away when you see a horse with RACHEL'S talent.

she will run next year, and she might accomplish more than any other filly before her. JESS JACKSON spent the money on her to write history.

she only ran one leg of the tripple crown, so maybe the book is still out on her, she did not race or win the BELMONT like many greats before her.

one thing for sure, she is a beautiful breathtaking horse to watch and follow that we all need now!

[bisket]

I'll say this, Rachel is not normal, nothing she does is normal. She won yesterday, because she refused to lose. It looked like she would have been past, but she dug in like a champ.

I have tried to see other views of the gallop out and have not been able to, but Macho Again from I have seen never past her in he gallop out either.
this is the trademark of a filly. good ones tend to be like this. they won't let others in front, and will run their hearts out to keep it from happening. 8 bells? as far as colts that were like this silver charm and affirmed had this way of running. the only reason touch gold beat silver is because he snuck up on him wide at the wire. one of the most brilliant rides i've ever seen. no doubt mccarron was one of the best to sit on a horse

[CincyHorseplayer]

And suddenly a new contender has emerged.

Is that for AOY???

Dimwits,ballbusters,and A-holes(of the year)need a goal to shoot for too!:cool:

[PaceAdvantage]

The Travers was the more challenging spot and they passed on it, you cannot deny it.How in the world can it be now considered MORE CHALLENGING when in fact, she BEAT the WINNER of the Travers only a few weeks prior in the Haskell, on an OFF TRACK just like the Travers no less?

If anything, it has to now be looked at as LESS CHALLENGING.

You would be right in calling it MORE CHALLENGING if, in fact, Quality Road had won the Travers.

[PaceAdvantage]

I didn't say she was as good as Seattle Slew ( or Holy Bull for that matter ) but I don't think it's unreasonable to draw at least a comparison to yesterday's race and the two I mentioned. They were all similar type situations in major showdowns.....that was really my point.Don't worry...the more level-headed among us got what you were stating.

I don't think anyone with a brain really thought you were saying that Seattle Slew wouldn't be able to beat Rachel Alexandra....and I would have banned you if I thought you were saying she was better than Holy Bull....:lol:

[PaceAdvantage]

Here is GREATNESS in a filly. DO this and one steps back and is in awe.Just face it man...you're wrong about Rachel. She is actually a bonafide GREAT filly.

Sometimes you just have to admit that you're wrong. It's good for the soul.

[eastie]

Does anybody think that carrying 8 more lbs she still wins this?

Yes!!!Do you really think that carrying equal weight would have made RA lose to Macho Again on saturday. I guess maybe you didn't watch the race or see the filly. You would need alot more than 8 pounds of lead to stop her. I don't know how much better she can run, but that was an awe inspiring performance to say the least. They tried everthing they could and still couldn't beat the filly. Any mortal filly would have hung on for third....She is true monster.
I would like to punch the Breeders Cups guy in the face, who awarded the Cup to Santa Anita 2 years in a row. It's his fault that we don't get to see the 2 Big fillies face off. Not just a punch either, A big overhand right haymaker.

[JustRalph]

I don't think she can truly be considered great until she does something that hasn't been done since 1886.
:lol: :lol: :lol:

[KingChas]

Rachel Alexandra barely beats a weak group of older horses at .30 odds. Jackson comes out and says she was not at her best. They will/may run again in a month. Where's the next cream puff field to beat up at .30 odds? Don't worry fans, Jackson will find it.

You are so right!
I was really let down when the entries were announced and Anabaa's Creation wasn't entered. :rolleyes:

[bcgreg]

You are so right!
I was really let down when the entries were announced and Anabaa's Creation wasn't entered. :rolleyes:

:lol:

[Wickel]

Behold! Stardom Bound lurks.

[46zilzal]

Just face it man...you're wrong about Rachel. She is actually a bonafide GREAT filly.

Sometimes you just have to admit that you're wrong. It's good for the soul.
I work with the Canadian T-bred Hall of Fame, vote for their year end awards there and one of the fundamental requirements to sit in judgement is the consideration of all the talent that has proceeded the current crop. It takes many years to have a working knowledge of the entire history of the breed.

One of the characteristics of those, IN THE BUSINESS, that I first understood in the 60's when I started a serious study of the breed, is the guarded use of superlatives UNTIL said horse comes UP to the tenants that that ENTIRE history dictates. Case in point was the very good horse Cougar II. Shoe called this multiple grade one winner on dirt and turf, rightly so, a "useful horse." Today, having LITTLE in the entire breed of any outstanding quality, of course, makes one, RELATIVELY, look far better than it really is.

Is RA good? yes. Is she special? yes, Is she unique? hardly, Is she great (not yet)

[FenceBored]

Behold! Stardom Bound lurks.

According to the unofficial 6 Degrees of Rachel Alexandra website, Stardom Bound is no worry, mate.

Stardom Bound lost the G1 Ashland to Hooh Why, who was immediately beaten (3rd) in the $50k Doubledelta at Arlington on Ky Derby Day before winning the $168k La Lorgnette at WO . The filly who beat her at Arlington was Afleet Deceit, who was coming in off a 2nd to RA in the G2 Fantasy at Oaklawn. The second place finisher in that race was also a Oaklawn alumnae, Peach Brew (later AP Oaks winner) who was coming in off a 3rd place behind Payton D'Oro (next out Black Eyed Susan winner) in the $75k Instant Racing Stakes. Peach Brew is running in today's G3 Pucker Up at Arlington against last year's Arlington-Washington Lassie winner C. S. Silk.

And yes, Jon White is my hero. How did you guess?

[DanG]

Is she unique? hardly, Is she great (not yet)
I’ve heard she’s losing sleep awaiting your approval.

To all the critics, not just 46; it’s called a stop loss order in the markets to limit the damage of an opinion gone south.

Given the information at the time and the fallout from the breakdown rate before certain tracks changed their surface I was 110% convinced it was the correct move. At this moment in time (betting aside) that position is beginning to look more like the captain of the Titanic yelling at Scotty for warp speed.

It’s a sport where were wrong far more then right and sometimes you just have to muck your cards and wait for the next hand (or filly in this case).

At this point the naysayers are all in with…
http://www.svenstightpokertips.com/wp-content/uploads/2009/04/seven-deuce-off-suit-300x225.jpg

[CincyHorseplayer]

Yes!!!Do you really think that carrying equal weight would have made RA lose to Macho Again on saturday. I guess maybe you didn't watch the race or see the filly. You would need alot more than 8 pounds of lead to stop her. I don't know how much better she can run, but that was an awe inspiring performance to say the least. They tried everthing they could and still couldn't beat the filly. Any mortal filly would have hung on for third....She is true monster.
I would like to punch the Breeders Cups guy in the face, who awarded the Cup to Santa Anita 2 years in a row. It's his fault that we don't get to see the 2 Big fillies face off. Not just a punch either, A big overhand right haymaker.

:ThmbUp:

[tucker6]

I’ve heard she’s losing sleep awaiting your approval.

To all the critics, not just 46; it’s called a stop loss order in the markets to limit the damage of an opinion gone south.

Given the information at the time and the fallout from the breakdown rate before certain tracks changed their surface I was 110% convinced it was the correct move. At this moment in time (betting aside) that position is beginning to look more like the captain of the Titanic yelling at Scotty for warp speed.

It’s a sport where were wrong far more then right and sometimes you just have to muck your cards and wait for the next hand (or filly in this case).

At this point the naysayers are all in with…
http://www.svenstightpokertips.com/wp-content/uploads/2009/04/seven-deuce-off-suit-300x225.jpg
Dan,

When I play, the 7 and the 2 is called a bathroom break! :cool:

[OverlayHunter]

I've seen some figures on her Woodward performance but haven't seen the Beyer. Does anyone know what that is?

[bisket]

both macho and rachel got a 109

[ryesteve]

I work with the Canadian T-bred Hall of Fame, vote for their year end awards

Is RA good? yes. Is she special? yes, Is she unique? hardly, Is she great (not yet)
Sorry, but I find this juxtaposition disturbing...

[RichieP]

I would like to punch the Breeders Cups guy in the face, who awarded the Cup to Santa Anita 2 years in a row. It's his fault that we don't get to see the 2 Big fillies face off. Not just a punch either, A big overhand right haymaker.

:ThmbUp::ThmbUp:

[Hanover1]

this question will be bantered about for some time, but this is the way i look at it. if say da'tara, cool coal man, or past the points were in the same zip code at the finish it would have made a difference. the one horse that was there at the finish the weight that was spotted didn't make a difference. why? because he wasn't with the pace, and is a one run type. the 8lbs didn't slow his run. end of story!!
Im puzzled here-The 8lbs didnt slow HIS run? the question was posed as to whether or not the 8lbs slowes HER run if she is assigned even weight. My answer would be "yes" it would have made a difference......she doesnt run same fractions, other horses still run their races......

[ghostyapper]

Don't worry...the more level-headed among us got what you were stating.

I don't think anyone with a brain really thought you were saying that Seattle Slew wouldn't be able to beat Rachel Alexandra....and I would have banned you if I thought you were saying she was better than Holy Bull....:lol:

Actually he would have been better off saying that she is better than slew. To say her performance in the woodward rivals slew's in the jcgc is just insane, especially coming form someone who was around for slew's performance.

I guess pumping rachel as the greatest ever brings more people to through the turnstiles, thats the only conclusion I can come to for a comment like that.

[ghostyapper]

How in the world can it be now considered MORE CHALLENGING when in fact, she BEAT the WINNER of the Travers only a few weeks prior in the Haskell, on an OFF TRACK just like the Travers no less?

If anything, it has to now be looked at as LESS CHALLENGING.

You would be right in calling it MORE CHALLENGING if, in fact, Quality Road had won the Travers.

Hey pace I know for a fact last year you used beyers exclusively to compare Big Brown and Curlin. What is your reaction to rachel running a 109 in the woodward and Summer Bird running a 110 in the travers?

Can't wait to hear this one.

[bisket]

Im puzzled here-The 8lbs didnt slow HIS run? the question was posed as to whether or not the 8lbs slowes HER run if she is assigned even weight. My answer would be "yes" it would have made a difference......she doesnt run same fractions, other horses still run their races......
rachel wouldn't have let the horse by.

[ghostyapper]

I do have one question for all those waxing poetic about rachel's performance how it compares to slew or is the best performance ever.

Where does the performance of roses in may in the 04 whitney rank? Clearly it must be up there with slew and all the other bests.

He faced a stronger pace than rachel against more talented horses and held off the late charge from a more talented closer.

In fact that performance was better than rachel's but 1 performance is among the greatest of all time and the other one is a forgotten 1 from 5 years ago?

[Cratos]

Actually he would have been better off saying that she is better than slew. To say her performance in the woodward rivals slew's in the jcgc is just insane, especially coming form someone who was around for slew's performance.

I guess pumping rachel as the greatest ever brings more people to through the turnstiles, thats the only conclusion I can come to for a comment like that.

Ghost,

You might have read some of my posts in this thread and understand my feelings about Rachel and about her Woodward performance.

Therefore I agree with TLG’s comparison between the Rachel’s Woodward performance and Seattle Slew’s 1978 JCGC performance in the sense that both performances had similar tenacity and pace competitiveness.

To point out that the JCGC pace (45.2 for the half and 1:09.4 for the 6f) was faster than the Woodard pace (46.2 for the half and 1:10.2 for the 6f) doesn’t take anything from the Woodward’s acclaim because of relativity.

However what the fast JCGC pace might show and probably do show is that the quality of horses in the JCGC was much better than the Woodward’s cast and that has been and can be proven and verified by their historical performance records.

[DRIVEWAY]

Im puzzled here-The 8lbs didnt slow HIS run? the question was posed as to whether or not the 8lbs slowes HER run if she is assigned even weight. My answer would be "yes" it would have made a difference......she doesnt run same fractions, other horses still run their races......

You are correct.

RA probably runs on average .62 seconds slower at equal weights and finishes third.

[Steve R]

Hey pace I know for a fact last year you used beyers exclusively to compare Big Brown and Curlin. What is your reaction to rachel running a 109 in the woodward and Summer Bird running a 110 in the travers?

Can't wait to hear this one.
I'm going to jump in here because Beyer's Woodward figure is wrong, and it's wrong as a consequence of consecutive incorrect projections beginning back with the Foster and through the Whitney where both Bullsbay and Macho Again were about 5 or 6 points too low. This is the problem when you use expectations instead of physics as the basis of your measurement. If your initial expectation is wrong, then everything that follows will be wrong as well. It's self-fulfilling. Frankly, Beyer's projection method has degenerated into one of the dumbest and least accurate of all the speed figure methodologies, not to mention his ignoring both pace and lost ground. Beyer is like the Microsoft of Thoroughbred racing - selling a crappy product at an inflated price. There are so many better systems out there just as the Mac OS and various Linux distributions are oh so superior to Windows. It's unfortunate he has the DRF platform to work from because they have the power to legitimize his crap.

[Steve R]

You are correct.

RA probably runs on average .62 seconds slower at equal weights and finishes third.
Well if you want to ignore the century-old Jockey Club Scale of Weights, that's your right. But ignoring it is a pretty lame way to look at the effects of weight.

[DRIVEWAY]

Well if you want to ignore the century-old Jockey Club Scale of Weights, that's your right. But ignoring it is a pretty lame way to look at the effects of weight.

The Scale of Weights and the effects of weights are mutually exclusive. One has nothing to do with the other.

[tucker6]

I'm going to jump in here because Beyer's Woodward figure is wrong, and it's wrong as a consequence of consecutive incorrect projections beginning back with the Foster and through the Whitney where both Bullsbay and Macho Again were about 5 or 6 points too low. This is the problem when you use expectations instead of physics as the basis of your measurement. If your initial expectation is wrong, then everything that follows will be wrong as well. It's self-fulfilling. Frankly, Beyer's projection method has degenerated into one of the dumbest and least accurate of all the speed figure methodologies, not to mention his ignoring both pace and lost ground. Beyer is like the Microsoft of Thoroughbred racing - selling a crappy product at an inflated price. There are so many better systems out there just as the Mac OS and various Linux distributions are oh so superior to Windows. It's unfortunate he has the DRF platform to work from because they have the power to legitimize his crap.
:ThmbUp: You said it better than I ever could. Beyer figures are vastly overrated, and often misleading.

[bisket]

I'm going to jump in here because Beyer's Woodward figure is wrong, and it's wrong as a consequence of consecutive incorrect projections beginning back with the Foster and through the Whitney where both Bullsbay and Macho Again were about 5 or 6 points too low. This is the problem when you use expectations instead of physics as the basis of your measurement. If your initial expectation is wrong, then everything that follows will be wrong as well. It's self-fulfilling. Frankly, Beyer's projection method has degenerated into one of the dumbest and least accurate of all the speed figure methodologies, not to mention his ignoring both pace and lost ground. Beyer is like the Microsoft of Thoroughbred racing - selling a crappy product at an inflated price. There are so many better systems out there just as the Mac OS and various Linux distributions are oh so superior to Windows. It's unfortunate he has the DRF platform to work from because they have the power to legitimize his crap.
you could flush all of them down the toilet as far as i'm concerned

[ghostyapper]

I'm going to jump in here because Beyer's Woodward figure is wrong, and it's wrong as a consequence of consecutive incorrect projections beginning back with the Foster and through the Whitney where both Bullsbay and Macho Again were about 5 or 6 points too low. This is the problem when you use expectations instead of physics as the basis of your measurement. If your initial expectation is wrong, then everything that follows will be wrong as well. It's self-fulfilling. Frankly, Beyer's projection method has degenerated into one of the dumbest and least accurate of all the speed figure methodologies, not to mention his ignoring both pace and lost ground. Beyer is like the Microsoft of Thoroughbred racing - selling a crappy product at an inflated price. There are so many better systems out there just as the Mac OS and various Linux distributions are oh so superior to Windows. It's unfortunate he has the DRF platform to work from because they have the power to legitimize his crap.

I don't disagree however I posed this question to this particular user who followed them blindly last year. So naturally when the beyers don't support his position, I want to see what his reaction is now.

[classhandicapper]

I'm going to jump in here because Beyer's Woodward figure is wrong, and it's wrong as a consequence of consecutive incorrect projections beginning back with the Foster and through the Whitney where both Bullsbay and Macho Again were about 5 or 6 points too low. This is the problem when you use expectations instead of physics as the basis of your measurement. If your initial expectation is wrong, then everything that follows will be wrong as well. It's self-fulfilling. Frankly, Beyer's projection method has degenerated into one of the dumbest and least accurate of all the speed figure methodologies, not to mention his ignoring both pace and lost ground.

I don't want to get involved in a long discussion about the Beyer figures for these races (though I am curious about your view in more detail), but I agree with you 100% about the theoretical problems with ALL projection figures, not just the Beyers.

The pace often has a huge impact on the final time. If you don't realize that and don't know how fast the pace actually was you will often assign all sorts of bogus figures. Then those bogus figures are used as the input for future figures. That ultimately produce a series of nonsensical figures and false perceptions about horses.

But it goes well beyond pace issues.

Tracks sometimes change speed, the wind often changes direction and intensity, until recently run up info was not available, ground loss is not included by Beyer, but can be incorrectly included by others when the outside paths are the best part of the track, no one knows how many feet are in the official beaten length formula even though beaten lengths impact figure calculations for big winners....blah blah blah. All numeric measurements of time and ability face a boatload of complexities.

If you frequent this forum regularly, you've probably seen 100 debates about individual figures from graded stakes races, let alone figures from maiden claimers and the like. And like you said, once a mistake is made, it forms the basis for future figures and gets passed on.

IMO your point about bad figures leading to more bad figures is well taken.

[Imriledup]

I don't want to start another topic on Rachel, but i'd like to ask the panel here in your opinion, what race of Rachel's made her go from a very good horse to a great horse? She's officially great, at what point did she get great?


I think her Oaks was brilliant and her Preakness win made her great. Personally i thought she was great when i saw her at Oaklawn, but i think that until she won the Preakness, she was just a brilliant filly who was waiting for greatness, i feel she became great the second she hit the wire in Baltimore.

[Cratos]

Im puzzled here-The 8lbs didnt slow HIS run? the question was posed as to whether or not the 8lbs slowes HER run if she is assigned even weight. My answer would be "yes" it would have made a difference......she doesnt run same fractions, other horses still run their races......

Calculating the theoretical impact of the weight differential between Rachel Alexandra and Macho Again in the Woodward is an interesting exercise and by no means proof positive that Rachel would have lost the race, but it does say from a physics point of view weight does make a difference.

In the Woodward with Rachel toting 118 pounds, her final winning time is given as 1:48.29 seconds with her finishing in front of Macho Again by a head or .02 seconds who was toting 126 pounds.

Assuming that both horses exhausted their kinetic energy during the race we can re-calculate Rachel with a 126 load and her final time goes from 1:48.29 to 1:48.65 or a difference of .36 seconds.

Given that Macho Again finished approximately .02 seconds behind Rachel or in a final time of approximately 1:48.31 seconds he now would’ve finished in front of her by .34 seconds or approximately 2 lengths.

Please don’t retort with this as being a way of putting Rachel down or diminishing her accomplishment because it is not.

Also, I am not the keeper of the laws of physics and therefore any of you can do your own calculations.

But, from my point of view the 8 pounds was the difference.

[CincyHorseplayer]

I don't want to start another topic on Rachel, but i'd like to ask the panel here in your opinion, what race of Rachel's made her go from a very good horse to a great horse? She's officially great, at what point did she get great?


I think her Oaks was brilliant and her Preakness win made her great. Personally i thought she was great when i saw her at Oaklawn, but i think that until she won the Preakness, she was just a brilliant filly who was waiting for greatness, i feel she became great the second she hit the wire in Baltimore.

Me too.And I would have enjoyed her just as much if she didn't do much else.

Now people are putting the burden of the universe on her or she's crap in their eyes.It's totally unfair to this teenage girl(in essence).She ran her eyeballs out Saturday and all we hear is "10 furlongs".

[CincyHorseplayer]

Calculating the theoretical impact of the weight differential between Rachel Alexandra and Macho Again in the Woodward is an interesting exercise and by no means proof positive that Rachel would have lost the race, but it does say from a physics point of view weight does make a difference.

In the Woodward with Rachel toting 118 pounds, her final winning time is given as 1:48.29 seconds with her finishing in front of Macho Again by a head or .02 seconds who was toting 126 pounds.

Assuming that both horses exhausted their kinetic energy during the race we can re-calculate Rachel with a 126 load and her final time goes from 1:48.29 to 1:48.65 or a difference of .36 seconds.

Given that Macho Again finished approximately .02 seconds behind Rachel or in a final time of approximately 1:48.31 seconds he now would’ve finished in front of her by .34 seconds or approximately 2 lengths.

Please don’t retort with this as being a way of putting Rachel down or diminishing her accomplishment because it is not.

Also, I am not the keeper of the laws of physics and therefore any of you can do your own calculations.

But, from my point of view the 8 pounds was the difference.

Actually the weight assignments make the case for how good a girl she is.She got the break because she's a 3YO female.And what she's doing is bigtime.

[Imriledup]

Me too.And I would have enjoyed her just as much if she didn't do much else.

Now people are putting the burden of the universe on her or she's crap in their eyes.It's totally unfair to this teenage girl(in essence).She ran her eyeballs out Saturday and all we hear is "10 furlongs".

What happens in horse racing is that because this is a game where people have to beat other people's opinions in order to make money, people are automatically trained to 'go against' the consensus. When people hear "Rachel is great" their auto-response is "no she's not, i can prove it".

Its just handicappers being automatically trained to go against the grain. That's a good thing as long as they don't get silly about it.

[CincyHorseplayer]

[. That's a good thing as long as they don't get silly about it.[/QUOTE]

It's too late for that.I think Ghostyapper has AOY award wrapped up:D

[DanG]

I do have one question for all those waxing poetic about rachel's performance
Jim Cramer (figure maker of HDW) has been making professional level figures before most of us were “waxing poetic” about 3yo fillies winning the Woodward. In his entire database he has only one horse…well here’s the exact quote from a post by Ron Tiller on the HTR board…

“Jim says he only has 1 other horse in the database who can run such high 1/4 and 1/2 Pace Ratings and get phenomenal Speed Ratings: Skip Away.”
• Ken Massa’s (owner of HTR) quote and he rarely “waxes poetic” about individual performances…

“Today is a great day for our sport. I'm speechless and impressed as rarely before.

Rachel, I bet against you, but it was the happiest 100 bucks I ever lost as I was screaming at my T.V. at the end for you to hang on. What courage. Horse of the Decade.”
• Jerry Brown of Thoro-Graph (before she ran in the Kentucky Oaks)

“She is the fastest filly we have ever rated in the history of TG figures.”
This is a rare animal…enjoy her.
http://blog.timesunion.com/horseracing/files/2009/07/rachel2.jpg

[bcgreg]

This is a rare animal…enjoy her.
http://blog.timesunion.com/horseracing/files/2009/07/rachel2.jpg

Right on DanG!

bcgreg

[ghostyapper]

Jim Cramer (figure maker of HDW) has been making professional level figures before most of us were “waxing poetic” about 3yo fillies winning the Woodward. In his entire database he has only one horse…well here’s the exact quote from a post by Ron Tiller on the HTR board…


• Ken Massa’s (owner of HTR) quote and he rarely “waxes poetic” about individual performances…


• Jerry Brown of Thoro-Graph (before she ran in the Kentucky Oaks)


This is a rare animal…enjoy her.


Those quotes pale in comparison to the big brown hoopla that was going on last year. Yea I know I know it was different people, all these rachel lover's didn't go crazy over any other horse recently.

[Cratos]

Actually the weight assignments make the case for how good a girl she is.She got the break because she's a 3YO female.And what she's doing is bigtime.

Actually it didn’t and the calculation is not about Rachel, but how weight makes a difference in horseracing. It doesn’t make a difference if a “girl” is getting a weight break or an older horse is giving weight to a younger horse; weight makes a difference.

To view and assess any event or problem without being both comprehensive and objective with your thought process is succinctly missing what the conclusion is telling you.

To continue to advocate that any post that gives a point of view different than yours is somehow bashing the accomplishment of Rachel Alexandra is naïve and silly.

[tucker6]

Those quotes pale in comparison to the big brown hoopla that was going on last year. Yea I know I know it was different people, all these rachel lover's didn't go crazy over any other horse recently.
Go back and look at those BB threads. You'll note that 90% of those who are calling RA great did not call BB great. Your memory is failing you. Few of us were fooled when Smarty and BB were being compared to Secretariat and the like. You need to beat or near tracks records, and win in crunch time when everyone is trying to bring you down in order to be called great. I'm not sure what you want greatness to look like. I'd love to know?? Please enlighten us as to what horse you see when the word greatness flashes into your mind??

[ghostyapper]

Go back and look at those BB threads. You'll note that 90% of those who are calling RA great did not call BB great. Your memory is failing you. Few of us were fooled when Smarty and BB were being compared to Secretariat and the like. You need to beat or near tracks records, and win in crunch time when everyone is trying to bring you down in order to be called great. I'm not sure what you want greatness to look like. I'd love to know?? Please enlighten us as to what horse you see when the word greatness flashes into your mind??

I have no problem calling rachel a great filly. But as usual, fans and media take it too far calling her the best horse ever or top 5 ever. That discussion is for after she is retired. Right now she's nowhere close. The same was being said about bernardini and BB by fans and the media. It's so funny how nobody admits to it now.

[DanG]

Those quotes pale in comparison to the big brown hoopla that was going on last year. Yea I know I know it was different people, all these rachel lover's didn't go crazy over any other horse recently.
I’ll take your word for the past quotes; I really can’t recall any specifics.

I agree in terms of racing superlatives that are often thrown around like wooden nickels. In this case I don’t think it applies, but that’s in the eye of the critic.

The criticism of Big Brown (imo) was largely due to very controversial connections and not the animal that ran very powerful Fla & KY Derby’s while on 3 feet. Maybe the multiple violator Asmussen is bringing this on the filly more then people care to admit. Who knows; either way thank goodness we have something positive to talk about.

[DRIVEWAY]

Actually it didn’t and the calculation is not about Rachel, but how weight makes a difference in horseracing. It doesn’t make a difference if a “girl” is getting a weight break or an older horse is giving weight to a younger horse; weight makes a difference.

To view and assess any event or problem without being both comprehensive and objective with your thought process is succinctly missing what the conclusion is telling you.

To continue to advocate that any post that gives a point of view different than yours is somehow bashing the accomplishment of Rachel Alexandra is naïve and silly.

Excellent points.

[thespaah]

I think she became great the moment she was conceived.
That filly is simply a freak. SHe is an incredible physical specimen. Trained properly, she has achieved greatness.

[thespaah]

I have no problem calling rachel a great filly. But as usual, fans and media take it too far calling her the best horse ever or top 5 ever. That discussion is for after she is retired. Right now she's nowhere close. The same was being said about bernardini and BB by fans and the media. It's so funny how nobody admits to it now.
I do not care to compare horses of one era to another. There is nothing to go on. The conditions, jockey's, horses, tracks, etc are different.

[joanied]

:bang: This is how I feel when I read the posts of the 'hard core' doubters, naysayers, not ready to give credit where credit is due crowd...and the numbers, weight alllowance debate, the 'she didn't beat anything' and even in comparing Rachel to horses of the past, including some of our most recent runners that may have been regarded as great (although, if memory serves me, only a few dared call horses like BB and Curlin great, most regarded them as especially good horses)...

several posters said it really well...tucker6, bcgreg, cincy, imriledup...and the always eloquent, DanG...by the way, DanG, thanks for the Rachel photo...I saved it for my desktop:) ...the quotes DanG used are fantastic...just like Rachel.

At least until she prooves beatable...my way of thinking is to enjoy her...she deserves every accolade given...she's done nothing but to do everything asked of her in style with class and courage...she's done more this season than most horses accomplish their entire career...
I won't fall into the abys of comparing her to any other 'great' or exceptionally good horse from last year, or 20 years ago...Rachel is re writting some of horse racing's history books and giving all who see her a lifetime of memories...when the shouting is over, when she runs her last race and walks proudly towards her date with Curlin...then we can begin to compare her to great horses of the past...

but this is here and now...this is a saga of racing that should not be taken lightly, should not be relinquished into numbers...Rachel, even to the handicappers and less than 'warm & fuzzy' folks...has to be considered one of the best horses ever, colt or filly...just on what she's already done...no one can possibly deny that facts...which are so obvious, I need not mention them...

you guys can argue your numbers til the cows come home...bottom line is that Rachel Alexandra is something you probably will not see again for too many years to come...maybe not in your lifetime... I'm still reeling from her performance in the Woodward, and I am in awe of this incredible animal...the racing Gods haven't sent us the likes of her in a very long time...be thankful, be happy, be anything but negative concerning her... and guess what I'm gonna do to finish this post...

:jump: :jump: :jump: RACHEL ALEXANDRA The GREAT:jump: :jump: :jump:
:) :) :)

[PaceAdvantage]

Hey pace I know for a fact last year you used beyers exclusively to compare Big Brown and Curlin. What is your reaction to rachel running a 109 in the woodward and Summer Bird running a 110 in the travers?

Can't wait to hear this one.I used Curlin's COMPLETE set of Beyers....would you like to go over Summer Bird and Rachel's COMPLETE SET of Beyer's for the year?

But, to answer your question directly....My reaction is that those two Beyers that you cite are rock-solid, concrete evidence that Summer Bird BLOWS AWAY Rachel at 10 furlongs....:rolleyes:

[PaceAdvantage]

I don't disagree however I posed this question to this particular user who followed them blindly last year. So naturally when the beyers don't support his position, I want to see what his reaction is now.Followed blindly? What the hell are you talking about?

[PaceAdvantage]

I don't want to start another topic on Rachel, but i'd like to ask the panel here in your opinion, what race of Rachel's made her go from a very good horse to a great horse? She's officially great, at what point did she get great?No brainer...when she won the Preakness.

[PaceAdvantage]

But as usual, fans and media take it too far calling her the best horse ever or top 5 ever.I've never said such a thing, and yet you continue to bust my balls. You remind me of someone who used to post here a lot...sq764...remember him?