class

[BIG HIT]

Hi guys I am sure you all have read that two horse running same distance in the same fraction and finish time.But one is a 3500 clm and one is a 10,000 clm that the higher priced horse wil always win.Because its not going to use same energy to run the fraction or time.But if that was really true it seems to me class would be easy.And the hole handicapping process easyer. But I dont see it that way.I know the above is a drastic example.But the fastest horse does not win that many race.If that was the case everybody would win.I think it is more how fast they slow down or stop.Due to all other factors

[hurrikane]

curious idea...how do you calculate this slowing down?

[NoDayJob]

See my post @ 'Going wide/distance lost' regarding Rubin Boxer. He's done all of this years ago.

[BIG HIT]

Hurricane read it in a book i had years a go before simulcast and just had one track to bet.It had to do with 6f race only.And the horse haveing a 3/5 pace advantage on the field.And runing a certain final time it had a chart.But did not have to many plays here in michigan as the horse were so cheap they rarely quailified on final time.When they did they were not worth a bet.But did find the 3/5 at the half was good advantageWish could remenber the name of book for you or the guy that wrote it but have c.r.s which is cant remenber sh*t.Nodayjob did not mean it was my idea just something i read.As for your post is interesting and may have merit.But far to deep for me.Iam only a week end warrior if that and playing for years.And learned this one inportant thing.there is as many way to pick a winner as there are wining horse.So you wont here me say anybody ideas are stupid.

[Tom]

I think class is something that can't be measured.
If you have a claimer that can run 112:4 for 3/4 in a mile race, how is it that the same horse will be 10-15 lengths
behind a 112 pace in a mile?
I see it all the time-higher class races going in slower fractions that maiden races on the same day.
Evver see a route race on the inner track at Aqu in the winter? They go 3/4 in 115-116 and some horses are 20 lengths behind. Next week, they drop in class and are 2-3 lengths off of a 114 pace.
Don't know what class is, but it can't be quantified,
just characterisitics of classier horses.
Crammer did a study that horse improved about 7-8 beyer points on the drop. Why?
Wish I knew. I'd be at Saratoga wearing a jacket and tie
and sipping tea. Toninght, I'm having Gator-Ade with my tater tots and wiennies.
Tom

[BIG HIT]

Hi tom I think at some level every horse will look like sea biscut.Take a horse that ran real poor in new york say bottom level claimer.Ships to river downs in a alw and is in for the win.Will no doubt be a different horse.I belive some where in the race reguardless of time or fractions The classier horse will show his stuff.Like the worst heavy weight boxer.Will beat the hell out of champion fly weight.Looks like he could whip the world.

[tanda]

Class can be quantified in many ways.

First, classier horses DO run faster. It is a myth that 10k claimers are regularly running as fast or faster than stakes horses. There are examples, but they are few and far between. Also, we have all heard about this phenomenon but has any of us studied it to see if it occurs and how often?

Second, classier horses can set, track and overtake a faster pace. Often times, the phenomenon discussed below is explained by pace. The final time of cheaper is faster, but the pace fraction was soft. When those horse are forced to set, track or overtake a faster pace, they crumble.

Although this factor cannot be quantified, many people believe that horses "know" their class evel and when they are outclassed and run accordingly.

[BIG HIT]

Yes tom that is true and also better horse also excelerate.With less energy to equl that fraction of the cheaper horse why in the end they win.Which is they do not slow down after words as the cheaper horse does.

[so.cal.fan]

Is anyone successfully classifying horses using the Beyer Pars?
As suggested in Jim Quinn's book, The Handicapper's Condition Book? Older horses only (4 and up).
Not having a data base, I would be interested to know if this has merit.
I have discussed this with Rick Ransom, and he suggested I ask the board.

[Rick Ransom]

My guess is that higher class horses can run faster but they don't have to if they're facing lower class opponents. They can run a faster pace without tiring. They can stalk the lower class horse and go right on by when he tires. The jockey on the lower class horse doesn't really have any choice but to go out early as fast as possible since setting a slow pace will just make it easier for the other horse to win.

I think horses improve in speed when they drop in class because they're expending their energy more efficiently. A horse that was forced to go too fast for their "class level" will tire and finish many lengths behind, recording a slow speed rating.

For you velocity rating fans, energy is proportional to the square of velocity not velocity itself. I think some of the software has already incorporated this, but most haven't.

[Tom]

Originally posted by BIG HIT
Hi tom I think at some level every horse will look like sea biscut.Take a horse that ran real poor in new york say bottom level claimer.Ships to river downs in a alw and is in for the win.Will no doubt be a different horse.I belive some where in the race reguardless of time or fractions The classier horse will show his stuff.Like the worst heavy weight boxer.Will beat the hell out of champion fly weight.Looks like he could whip the world.

At Finger Lakes, we see it al the time-horse trail the field at NYRA, never make a move, beaten 20 lengths.
They come to FL, go off at 8-5 and run a hole through the wind and win for fun.
Tom

[Tom]

Originally posted by so.cal.fan
Is anyone successfully classifying horses using the Beyer Pars?
As suggested in Jim Quinn's book, The Handicapper's Condition Book? Older horses only (4 and up).
Not having a data base, I would be interested to know if this has merit.
I have discussed this with Rick Ransom, and he suggested I ask the board.

I have my own Beyer pars for several tracks and they are eye-opening. I use them primarily as an elimination factor-if a horse can't run to par, or close to it, I throw it out. If nothing can run to par, then I look for surprises, and pay attention to other factor besides speed.
Some classes have very large spreads of numbers.
Recently, at Belmont, I found a horse in a NW1 allowance that was exiting the fastest MSW race of the last several meets, by a good margin. His number looked suspicious because he won wire to wire but since it was such a big number, I played it and he won
and he was facing a good looking horse from Kentucky so his odds were deccent. BTW, these two ran 1-2 and were the only two to ever run close to the NW1 par.
Tom

[Rick Ransom]

Tom,

Do you use the pars to rate the class of previous races? If so, how well does it work?

[Tom]

Originally posted by Rick Ransom
Tom,

Do you use the pars to rate the class of previous races? If so, how well does it work?

Indirectly. I look for horse that ran faster than par in a previous race and mentally rate the horse. I also look for a horse that ran in a faster than par race and is dropping today. Works pretty well.
example-
I have four horse that ran 56, 49, 57, 53 last time out.
Are these good races? If par was 48, then these are pretty good races. If par was 60, I would look at the 56 and 57 and 53 as an outsider and throw out the 49. If par was 54, then I would look at them all. If par was 70, I would look for something besides speed to use on this race.
Tom

[Rick Ransom]

Tom,

So you only use the par for today's race, not the par for the class level of any of the previous races?