A once in a decade filly or a very good older horse - a hypothetical situation

[SoCalCircuit]

I've brought up this senario before on a few threads but the more I think about it the more curious I get as to everyone's take on the situation.

Let us for a second assume that Rachel wins the woodward on saterday...something never done by a filly before, lets say she caps her campaign there, 5 straight G1 wins.

Now lets say Gio Ponti grabs another G1 Turf win, and then goes on to win the BC Turf or even the BCC. Now you have to vote for HOY. The situation is more difficult than meets the eye. If you look at Rachels resume: FG Oaks G2, Fantasy G2, KY Oaks G1, Preakness G1, MR Goose G1, Haskell G1, WW G1...quite a resume. But now lets looks at Gio Ponti's credentials in this hypotetical: Frank Kilroe Mile G1, Manhatten HC G1, ManOWar G1, Arl Million G1, Joe Hirsh Turf Classic G1 (possible), BC Turf G1 (possible)

Now what do you do here. Gio Ponti has obviously won the classier races against tougher competition (all open competition). Has won at 4 different distances, and has even won a graded stakes on the synth (Sir Beaufort G3). I would say hands down this is the better resume. However, the fact that this was a filly accomplishing all this and with such style, does that give her the edge? In other words, should the voting be based purely on which races were won and against whom, or on the fact that these races were out of the general niche of a 3 yo filly, and the fact that the races against her own gender were all 10+ length victories. Gio Ponti is a very very very good turf horse, but RA is a great filly. But due to age and gender, a very very very good male horse can naturally do more than a great filly

[46zilzal]

All other things equal the MALE will, by historical precedent, WIN out

[Java Gold@TFT]

If true turf horses ever got their due in this country then we would have had more HOY's in the last 30 years than All Along and Kotashaan. Just recently Kitten's Joy shouls have been named best 3yo colt but there is a resonating prejudice that will not be overturned. The only way an excellent and accomplished turf horse can win HOY is if there is only a very good dirt horse leading that division.

P.S. I'd be surprised to see Gio Ponti in the BC Turf. 12F might be at the very top of his end. I wouldn't be surprised if they took a shot at the polycrap at 10F if he does well at Belmont this fall.

[Imriledup]

Its not all about Statistics. The Nation is captured by Rachel. Outside of serious students of the turf, no one even knows who Gio Ponti is.


HOY might be a combination of accomplishments and actual FAME. Rachel has done great things and is more famous. People don't make special arrangements to go out of their way to go to the track to see Gio Ponti race, but you can be rest assured that Rachel will be creating many new fans every time she races.

I know it shouldn't be this way, but it is.

Rachel's name will get mentioned on TVG 50 times to Gio Ponti's one.

[SoCalCircuit]

HOY might be a combination of accomplishments and actual FAME. Rachel has done great things and is more famous. People don't make special arrangements to go out of their way to go to the track to see Gio Ponti race, but you can be rest assured that Rachel will be creating many new fans every time she races.

This is what I am kind of getting at, I just couldnt think of the words I wanted. Say Gio Ponti were to win the BCC, or even any BC race for that matter. Its race resume would undoubtedly be more impressive than RA. So should HOY voting be based on accomplishments alone or should public opinion and fame play a part?

[46zilzal]

it really matters little to the grandstander fans out there as they do not vote. I vote for the Sovereign Awards here and it is a difficult process in most categories as races are evolving (we vote in late November) as one tallies the data and there are historical guidelines to each category.

DRF and newspaper writers, racing secretaries, and many people IN THE BUSINESS do the voting and the majority of them use good guidelines.

[Imriledup]

This is what I am kind of getting at, I just couldnt think of the words I wanted. Say Gio Ponti were to win the BCC, or even any BC race for that matter. Its race resume would undoubtedly be more impressive than RA. So should HOY voting be based on accomplishments alone or should public opinion and fame play a part?

This is a fascinating situation. Public opinion and fame are intertwined with how impressive that the horse is. Even though Rachel is winning one race at a time, its the WAY she's doing it that makes it more impressive. Gio Ponti isn't winning his races by 20 lengths with the jockey waving at the fans as he goes by the 16th pole. Lets say the Cleveland Cavs and LA Lakers both go 70-12 on the season. Lets also say that Lebron averages 40 points per game and Kobe averages 30 points per game. All things being equal, even though both players helped their respective teams to 70 regular season wins, Lebron will get the MVP because he 'won by more' for lack of a better word.

Maybe that's a bad analogy, but its the best i could do at the time!

I think how you win and how much you win by is also a factor. The margins of victory are making people really clammor to see Rachel Race. You never know what Rachel is going to do next. With Gio Ponti, he's just going to grind out another 2 length win without anyone really noticing. Or caring.

Part of Rachel's 'fame' is the fact that she's doing things that are way out of the norm. Its like Usain Bolt's fame, people are fascinated by him in the same way people are fascinated by Rachel.

All statistics aside, Rachel FEELS like horse of the year. If you go on feeling, gut instinct and touch, she FEELS like she's the one who deserves it and this goes against any actual statistics you might come up with supporting another candidate.

Should it be this way? maybe, maybe not. I think its better for racing if Rachel wins the award, she's giving the sport more publicity than anyone else.

Some might say,under this theory, that Barbaro should have won HOY because he was the most 'famous' horse in his year. I think HOY is a combo of overall accomplishments combined with some flair and some fame.

Right or not, that's just the way it goes.

[Hanover1]

If true turf horses ever got their due in this country then we would have had more HOY's in the last 30 years than All Along and Kotashaan. Just recently Kitten's Joy shouls have been named best 3yo colt but there is a resonating prejudice that will not be overturned. The only way an excellent and accomplished turf horse can win HOY is if there is only a very good dirt horse leading that division.

P.S. I'd be surprised to see Gio Ponti in the BC Turf. 12F might be at the very top of his end. I wouldn't be surprised if they took a shot at the polycrap at 10F if he does well at Belmont this fall.
Agreed. Had this been a Euro situation, weed horse wins out every time. Dirt is at the heart of horsepeople here imo. RA creates buzz and wins outside class repeatedly. (other arguments aside here please....) RA garners the publicity, ink, ect.....HOY barring loss is a lock. Even if Ponti handles Polycrap.

[SoCalCircuit]

On a semi-related topic I just made a discovery. I'm not sure people are aware of this but I was a bit surprised. Zenyatta is ranked #45 this year in total earnings with a staggaring $450K, just in between Mythical Power and Take the Points. I mean a realized that she has been avoiding the tougher races, but that statistic is kind of a huge turn off to me

[ghostyapper]

Right now rachel is HOY but I don't buy the "which horse brought more publicity to the sport" criteria. Luckily the voters did not use this in determining the 2004 HOY otherwise smarty would have won it over Ghostzapper and that would have been a crime.

As for Rachel vs Gio Pionti I will add that I consider it more impressive to put a winning streak together on turf since the races are much more unpredictable and the margin of victory is much smaller.

[ghostyapper]

This is what I am kind of getting at, I just couldnt think of the words I wanted. Say Gio Ponti were to win the BCC, or even any BC race for that matter. Its race resume would undoubtedly be more impressive than RA. So should HOY voting be based on accomplishments alone or should public opinion and fame play a part?

If RA wins the woodward and JCGC then I don't think there's anything gio ponti can do. But if they duck the jcgc for some cupcake 9 furlong race they leave the door wide open imo.

[Java Gold@TFT]

On a semi-related topic I just made a discovery. I'm not sure people are aware of this but I was a bit surprised. Zenyatta is ranked #45 this year in total earnings with a staggaring $450K, just in between Mythical Power and Take the Points. I mean a realized that she has been avoiding the tougher races, but that statistic is kind of a huge turn off to me
Well, when you only run 3 times in a year and none of the races have purses over $300,000 it is kind of hard to pay for much more than feed, vet bills and insurance costs. The funnier thing is that Well Armed is still listed as the earnings leader with only the win in Dubai.

[W2G]

Don't kid yourself. If Gio Ponti takes care of business in his next and caps his year with a win over a star-studded international field in the BC Turf, the HOY vote will be suspenseful. On merit alone both GP and RA would have a case, assuming that she wins out. Much will depend on the quality of competition she faces in her remaining races.

I suggest we use "Gio Ponti" and "Horse of the Year" in the same sentence as often as possible. Might be enough to make Jackson surrender to his competitive nature and send RA to the BC. :)

[Imriledup]

I don't know what planet i'm from, but i don't think Gio Ponti has any shot at HOY no matter what he does.

I guess we'll find out next January.

[SoCalCircuit]

I don't know what planet i'm from, but i don't think Gio Ponti has any shot at HOY no matter what he does.

I guess we'll find out next January.


I wouldnt go as far to say he has no shot at HOY. He's won 4 G1s in a row against tougher fields. He's been winning over 4 different distances and 2 different surfaces. He's going to the BC, which the HOY voters put a lot of weight on in their HOY voting.

[46zilzal]

I wouldnt go as far to say he has no shot at HOY. He's won 4 G1s in a row against tougher fields. He's been winning over 4 different distances and 2 different surfaces. He's going to the BC, which the HOY voters put a lot of weight on in their HOY voting.

Dance every dance and do it well, not even winning every one (like the great geldings did) and you show voters that you don't duck, you are adaptable and not afraid of any and all comers. That GOES A LONG WAY with voters.

[FenceBored]

Right now rachel is HOY but I don't buy the "which horse brought more publicity to the sport" criteria. Luckily the voters did not use this in determining the 2004 HOY otherwise smarty would have won it over Ghostzapper and that would have been a crime.

As for Rachel vs Gio Pionti I will add that I consider it more impressive to put a winning streak together on turf since the races are much more unpredictable and the margin of victory is much smaller.

You're kidding, right? Gio Ponti has never attempted the classic turf distance of 12f! He's been ducking 12f races, left and right. He's a ducker. Gio "the ducker" Pionti. He ducked the Sword Dancer. He'll duck the Joe Hirsh. Why do you think their talking about the Classic instead of the BC Turf. He can't handle 12f.

Hey, you're right. That's fun. :)

[ghostyapper]

You're kidding, right? Gio Ponti has never attempted the classic turf distance of 12f! He's been ducking 12f races, left and right. He's a ducker. Gio "the ducker" Pionti. He ducked the Sword Dancer. He'll duck the Joe Hirsh. Why do you think their talking about the Classic instead of the BC Turf. He can't handle 12f.

Hey, you're right. That's fun. :)

Ok I'll play along. Gio Ponti is the best 12 furlong turf horse on the planet. Every 12 furlong race they did not run in there was a logical excuse. He also ran in the man o war which is almost 12 furlongs (preakness) Had he run in those races he would have won them by a pole so we should give him credit for winning those races. The proof of this is he beat precious passion in the arlington million (summer bird)who won the UN at 12 furlongs.

You're right that's fun ;)

[Imriledup]

I wouldnt go as far to say he has no shot at HOY. He's won 4 G1s in a row against tougher fields. He's been winning over 4 different distances and 2 different surfaces. He's going to the BC, which the HOY voters put a lot of weight on in their HOY voting.

He's gotta win the classic to have a chance.

[CincyHorseplayer]

I once heard 2 old men arguing in a bar and quoting the one,he had it right,"This is America jack".

Greatness is measured on dirt here.Fabricated surfaces and horse attributes in other parts of the world do not apply.Internationalization is not the goal.The Breeders Cup on a 3rd surface is irrelevant to the HOY outcome.Gio Ponti on turf would only warrant HOY consideration if there was absolutely no talent on dirt and that's clearly not the case.Zenyatta nearly lost to a N2X horse in a career long isolated rubber enviroment(barring BC)and Summer Bird has been beaten embarrassingly by RA.

She needs the JCGC to get HOY.Technically and just so you violent and vehement haters will shut your pieholes.

I've never seen so much utter poison poured on a horse.You must either be pure degenerate gamblers who see racing as nothing more or bitter losers.No normal person in this game argues on multiple threads for 3 months about how overrated they think a horse is.Get a life or at least spare us your psychotic venom.

[ghostyapper]

She needs the JCGC to get HOY.Technically and just so you violent and vehement haters will shut your pieholes.

I've never seen so much utter poison poured on a horse.You must either be pure degenerate gamblers who see racing as nothing more or bitter losers.No normal person in this game argues on multiple threads for 3 months about how overrated they think a horse is.Get a life or at least spare us your psychotic venom.

Ahh I see so those who do not think Rachel is the 2nd coming of christ are just angry losers with no life but those who believe she is and go around insulting anyone who thinks differently then them are perfectly fine human beings with a great life.

I'd say quit while you're ahead but you couldn't possibly look any worse then you already do so have at it.

[CincyHorseplayer]

Ahh I see so those who do not think Rachel is the 2nd coming of christ are just angry losers with no life but those who believe she is and go around insulting anyone who thinks differently then them are perfectly fine human beings with a great life.

I'd say quit while you're ahead but you couldn't possibly look any worse then you already do so have at it.

You've made a public spectacle of yourself since June.Your last statement defines you unequivocally.Try again.

[SoCalCircuit]

I dont think theres any doubt that RA is something incredible...possibly the best filly we may see for the rest of our lifetimes. But I think as far as HOY goes, Gio Ponti deserves fair consideration, and at this point is equally as qualified and deserving as RA. Maybe not from a public opinion standpoint, as he obviously cant go run by 3 yo fillys by 20 lengths, but he can beat a somewhat classy older male turf division on a very relaible basis. He is incredibly versitile as far as class, distance, and surface goes, things that the public may not care about, but true horse fans and voters cannot overlook. Anyways, HOY should be a category that only colts can win, as it will increase their value as a stallion. :D Maybe we should vote Kensei HOY :lol:

[Hanover1]

I dont think theres any doubt that RA is something incredible...possibly the best filly we may see for the rest of our lifetimes. But I think as far as HOY goes, Gio Ponti deserves fair consideration, and at this point is equally as qualified and deserving as RA. Maybe not from a public opinion standpoint, as he obviously cant go run by 3 yo fillys by 20 lengths, but he can beat a somewhat classy older male turf division on a very relaible basis. He is incredibly versitile as far as class, distance, and surface goes, things that the public may not care about, but true horse fans and voters cannot overlook. Anyways, HOY should be a category that only colts can win, as it will increase their value as a stallion. :D Maybe we should vote Kensei HOY :lol:
HOY for males only is mind boggling........value as a stud means nothing, especially after a couple of years and he throws mules. HOY is for the best RUNNER that year as voted on by various entities. As it "should" be.

[SoCalCircuit]

hahaha I know...I was just joking around to see how the RA fans would react. But in all seriousness, I feel that right now, RA is definitely the choice for HOY, but with Gio Ponti pursuing the BC, and I'll put money down right now that whatever BC event they chose to enter (Christophe said right now hes considering 4), Ponti will win. That being the case, end of the year voting will not be as simplistic of a decision that it seems now. Also, IMO, I think unless somethng drastic happens, Zenyatta is out of the picture for HOY right now.

[kenwoodallpromos]

Major wins in HOY year (2002):
Clement L. Hirsch Handicap (2002)
Lady's Secret Breeders' Cup Handicap (2002)
Santa Margarita Invitational Handicap (2002)
Apple Blossom Handicap (2002)
Milady Breeders' Cup Handicap (2002)
Vanity Handicap (2002)
Breeders' Cup Distaff (2002)
HOY 2002
_________________
I do not care who wins the best races; All sectors of TBred racing are down in the dumps; So any HOY winner other than RA is a waste.

[SoCalCircuit]

I just don't understand why all HOY conversation is always automatically about her while Ponti is getting no respect, even though he's put together an equally as impressive resume this year. I dont care if itd be good for the sport, I want to see the best horse get the recognition he or she deserves. And also, can you think of how many horses who were healthy enough to compete in the BC but chose to skip have won HOY? The number is very slim.

[DeanT]

If both win out and RA is not voted HOY I think they should give every voter an eye test. If they pass, they are invited to be judges for Figure Skating in Vancouver 2010, and are never allowed to vote in racing again.

[statik27]

Can I just pause the argument and say that this is a great year of racing.

Rachel Alexandra, Zenyatta, Gio Ponti, the birds, sea the stars and on and on. You know its a great year to be a fan when we argue this much.

Ok, I'm done...proceed.

[kenwoodallpromos]

I just don't understand why all HOY conversation is always automatically about her while Ponti is getting no respect, even though he's put together an equally as impressive resume this year. I dont care if itd be good for the sport, I want to see the best horse get the recognition he or she deserves. And also, can you think of how many horses who were healthy enough to compete in the BC but chose to skip have won HOY? The number is very slim.
"Curlin may have lost more than this race. The Breeders' Cup always influences voting for the horse of the year, and Curlin's reputation sank Saturday. The impressive victory of the undefeated filly Zenyatta in the Ladies Classic Friday will earn her strong support for the sport's top honor."
Yes he ran, and lost, still beat out Z for HOY. And Curlin was an older male in 2008, beat Big Brown for HOY. I think RA's record this year will be plenty on par with older males and Azeri for HOY. If they give it to Z this year and not last year it will just be a snub to Jacksons. I now agree with Jacksons not to run RA in the BC and give racing any chance to deny her the HOY with the excuse of not winning on Plubber, not beating Europeans, not doing enough as a female. If she wins the Woodward there is no excuse good enough to keep her from the HOY (unless Z wins the Classic)!!

[tucker6]

And also, can you think of how many horses who were healthy enough to compete in the BC but chose to skip have won HOY? The number is very slim.
The world did exist before the BC races.

Also, just like MVP awards in other sports, in close competition, the award often goes to the competitor that has the name recognition. That would be RA.

[tucker6]

"Curlin may have lost more than this race. The Breeders' Cup always influences voting for the horse of the year, and Curlin's reputation sank Saturday. The impressive victory of the undefeated filly Zenyatta in the Ladies Classic Friday will earn her strong support for the sport's top honor."
Yes he ran, and lost, still beat out Z for HOY. And Curlin was an older male in 2008, beat Big Brown for HOY. I think RA's record this year will be plenty on par with older males and Azeri for HOY. If they give it to Z this year and not last year it will just be a snub to Jacksons. I now agree with Jacksons not to run RA in the BC and give racing any chance to deny her the HOY with the excuse of not winning on Plubber, not beating Europeans, not doing enough as a female. If she wins the Woodward there is no excuse good enough to keep her from the HOY (unless Z wins the Classic)!!
Given the past conservative position taken by the connections with Zenyatta, I would be stunned if she raced in the Classic. Nothing they have done to date tells me otherwise.

[depalma113]

I've brought up this senario before on a few threads but the more I think about it the more curious I get as to everyone's take on the situation.

Let us for a second assume that Rachel wins the woodward on saterday...something never done by a filly before, lets say she caps her campaign there, 5 straight G1 wins.

Now lets say Gio Ponti grabs another G1 Turf win, and then goes on to win the BC Turf or even the BCC. Now you have to vote for HOY. The situation is more difficult than meets the eye. If you look at Rachels resume: FG Oaks G2, Fantasy G2, KY Oaks G1, Preakness G1, MR Goose G1, Haskell G1, WW G1...quite a resume. But now lets looks at Gio Ponti's credentials in this hypotetical: Frank Kilroe Mile G1, Manhatten HC G1, ManOWar G1, Arl Million G1, Joe Hirsh Turf Classic G1 (possible), BC Turf G1 (possible)

Now what do you do here. Gio Ponti has obviously won the classier races against tougher competition (all open competition). Has won at 4 different distances, and has even won a graded stakes on the synth (Sir Beaufort G3). I would say hands down this is the better resume. However, the fact that this was a filly accomplishing all this and with such style, does that give her the edge? In other words, should the voting be based purely on which races were won and against whom, or on the fact that these races were out of the general niche of a 3 yo filly, and the fact that the races against her own gender were all 10+ length victories. Gio Ponti is a very very very good turf horse, but RA is a great filly. But due to age and gender, a very very very good male horse can naturally do more than a great filly


Based on your scenerio, if she wins Saturday, the HOY voting is over (if it's not already). If it is not unanimous those that vote have no business casting a ballot ever again. Regardless of the mindless obsession that the horse is somehow vulnerable at a mile and a quarter, a win at a mile and a quarter is not necessary for a 3 year-old to be named Horse of The Year.

5 Grade One wins, one in open company, two over the best colts of her generation including one Triple Crown race where she defeated the top four finishers of the Kentucky Derby, and two by 20 lengths against her division. Set two stakes records just missed three others (two by being geared down and missed tying one by .02 of a second) and just missed two track records that were set by Secretariat and Spend a Buck.

[PaceAdvantage]

I just don't understand why all HOY conversation is always automatically about her while Ponti is getting no respect, even though he's put together an equally as impressive resume this year.It's quite simple actually.

Dirt runners traditionally have been preferred over turf runners when it comes to HOY. The dirt runners have to be markedly weak for a turf runner to enter into the picture for top honors at year end.

Plus, RA is doing something quite special in that she is racing and winning outside her division...should she win the Woodward, she would be doing so WAY OUTSIDE her division....

This is why, at least in my opinion, Ponti merits little respect in comparison to RA.

[speed]

How about if Summer Bird wins his next and then wins the Breeders Cup?

[PaceAdvantage]

How about if Summer Bird wins his next and then wins the Breeders Cup?Unless he beats Rachel in the process, how does he rate above her considering she already kicked his ass in the Haskell?

[joanied]

Unless he beats Rachel in the process, how does he rate above her considering she already kicked his ass in the Haskell?

:lol:

But, seriously...PA, Summer Bird was still on the upswing at Haskell time...still think RA will kick his ass again...but he is a very improoving horse...if he continues like he has, he'll be a force in the Classic.

Horse of the Year... Gio Ponti will get Champion Turf horse...as of right now, that's a no brainer...but, IMO...RA+Woodward win= Horse of the Year:)

[PaceAdvantage]

The Haskell wasn't all that long ago...plus it was run over the slop, just like the Travers...Do you think Summer Bird really got that much better between the Haskell and the Travers?